Different strokes, same woes for Transpacific and Asia-Europe routes
“The transpacific and Asia–Europe trades may both be experiencing spot rates in flux, but the underlying drivers are worlds apart,” said Niki Frank, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.
By late August, spot freight rates were dropping on both lanes. The Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI) recorded its 11th straight weekly fall on 28 August. However, Transpacific routes saw rates rising consecutively for two weeks, with the SCFI rising by 13.8 percent as September rolled in. This was an expected trend as a precursor to the Golden Week rate increase to anticipate capacity cuts and holiday shipments.
The rate spike, however, might only be temporary. Weakening demand for U.S. retailers has slowed the accelerated purchasing that had pulled forward the peak season. Meanwhile, tariff uncertainty for China and countries that saw tariffs imposed on them compounded the pressure. The September DHL Ocean Freight Market update noted that import costs, depending on the origin, have seen an increase between 15 percent to 50 percent.
A preliminary forecast from the latest Global Port Tracker by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates gives a sense of the impact on the supply chain from the tariffs and the current administration’s trade policy. U.S. import volumes are predicted to be around 5.6 percent lower this year than in 2024. After modest growth in H1, September volumes are expected to drop by 19.5 percent year-on-year, with October down by 18.9 percent.
Capacity wooing for more cargo on Asia-Europe route
“Consumer demand in the U.S. is softening and tariffs are creating additional uncertainty. In contrast, on the Asia–Europe front, cargo demand has been solid for most of 2025, but the sheer amount of vessel capacity in the market is pushing rates down,” noted Frank.
According to the Japan International Freight Forwarders Association (JIFFA), container exports from Asia to Europe jumped 16 percent year‑on‑year in May, reaching 1.81 million TEUs. This was the third month in a row of growth and the highest monthly total ever recorded. Despite signs that some exports from Asia have been rerouted to Europe due to U.S. tariffs, the redeployed capacity outweighs the demand increase.
Consultancy firm Linerlytica noted that a September rate rebound on the Asia-Europe route was not manifesting as carriers continue to resist capacity cuts to match the drop in demand. Cargo booking volumes have fallen by between 5 percent to 20 percent in the second half of August with the Transpacific, Asia-Europe and Latin America routes under heavy pressure.
Some reports hint at a brewing market share battle between carriers and alliances - a throwback to pre-pandemic rate wars which many thought consolidation and the lessons of recent years had buried.
Could carriers start scrapping ships soon? The September DHL Ocean Freight Market Update says the number of 2025 demolitions is the second-lowest over past 20 years, only outdone by 2022, but “scrapping is expected to pick up shortly”.
The duality of schedule reliability
Liner schedule reliability is also on the decline, slipping in July for the first time since January, according to Sea-Intelligence. Maersk led the top-13 carriers with a reliability of 80.6 percent, followed by Hapag-Lloyd on 74 percent. Most peers clustered between 60–70 percent, while HMM brought up the rear at 50.7 percent. Even so, July reliability was 13 points higher year-on-year.
“Schedule reliability is slipping again, and that puts additional pressure on shippers already dealing with volatile demand,” said Bjoern Schoon, Senior Vice President, Ocean Freight, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific. “The good news is that reliability remains well above last year’s levels, but the recent trend shows how fragile the recovery still is.”
Different tunes from Panama Canal and Mexico
The dynamics of the transpacific market could change further due to two very different changes to Mexico’s role in Asia-North America trade.
On the upside, Mexico plans to offer an alternative route for shippers using the Panama Canal to reach the East Coast and Gulf ports from Asia. It has officially opened the Interoceanic Corridor of the Isthmus from across Mexico, from Veracruz to Oaxaca. This uses rail services linking ports on the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. According to Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, the route will be upgraded in the next year via heavy infrastructure investment.
Yet, some optimistic caution should be exercised, as reports suggest that Mexico is set to increase tariffs on Chinese imports. The pressure comes from the White House, which believes that its neighbour has become a back door gateway for importers looking to avoid U.S. import tariffs. The move is also in anticipation of tariffs between the two largest global economies ramping up as the deadline for the ongoing 90-day tariff truce draws closer.
As carriers juggle tariffs, reliability, and a brewing rate war, the ocean freight market is starting to feel like a game of maritime musical chairs—only with fewer seats and more ships.
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