Array
(
[derick] => Array
(
[Rising export levels inspire cautious optimism] => 出口水平不斷上升，對未來發展謹慎樂觀
[Despite continuing risks, there are some positive signs for ocean shipping stakeholders.] => 雖然風險持續存在，但遠洋航運利益相關方仍能看見一些積極的信號。
[[]] =>
[Ongoing operational challenges
Of course, it will not all be plain sailing. Carriers are still opting for blank sailing, thus cancelling routes to maintain its schedule integrity. Due to operational reasons, some have also taken a less disruptive approach with port omissions, skipping only certain ports out of many in their routes.
“Ongoing blank sailings and port omissions, followed by last minute vessel sliding, are reducing the overall capacity in the market and this remain an industry-wide challenge,” notes Dominique von Orelli, Global Head, Ocean Freight, DHL Global Forwarding.
Global vessel schedule reliability improved again in October, but only marginally, and reliability levels remained firmly in the 34-40% range seen throughout the year, according to Sea-Intelligence. And it is worth noting that reliability in October 2021 was down 18 percentage points compared to October 2020 with the average delay for late vessel arrivals dropping only marginally to 7.34 days.
Maersk was once again the most reliable top-14 carrier in October 2021, with schedule reliability of 46.4%, followed by Hamburg Süd with 38.1%.
Worryingly, scheduling shortfalls and port congestion are increasingly cascading into intra-Asia services, further disrupting traffic and leaving large volumes of traffic stuck at transhipment hubs.
Moreover, global port congestion remains a challenge, given that demand is expected to remain strong leading into Chinese New Year.
Adding to possible bottlenecks, China’s strict quarantine rules for seafarers are prompting feeder operators to wind down operations on the Pearl River Delta in southern China from late December until mid-February.
“There are still multiple operational challenges to overcome as we try to ease global supply-chain disruptions,” said von Orelli. “There are clearly multiple risks to any forecasts about the health of global shipping in 2022.”
Easing of supply chain constraints
Even so, there are indications that the economy is slowly improving. In November, the JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI signaled improvements in business conditions for the 17th consecutive month.
Olya Borichevska, Global Economist at JPMorgan, said the November Global Manufacturing PMI also recorded “an increase in the output component against a modest easing across indicators related to supply constraints” with the findings suggesting an “industrial sector moving toward improvement”.
JPMorgan also reported that the volume of global new orders rose again during November, while new export orders increased in November faster than in October.
This is further confirmed by analysis from investment bank Nomura which reported in early December that factories ramping up output after Covid-19 lockdowns were helping to overcome supply chain bottlenecks. It said the Suppliers’ Deliveries Times Index (SDTi) rose to 43.8 in November from 42.9 in October, with improvements particularly noticeable in Vietnam and China.
The turnaround in Vietnam has been particularly striking. Ranked at 38th out of 169 countries in the DHL Global Connectedness Index, Vietnam has seen exports bounce back after it suffered a 6.1 percent contraction in GDP due to strict social distancing regulations. Vietnam’s Ministry of Trade now expects a 10 percent increase in exports this year.
“When I look at Vietnam opening up, on top of the healthy global macroeconomic and Asian export data we’ve seen, I’m cautiously confident for 2022,” said Leung.
But he was quick to point out that events over the last two years, such as the pandemic, the closure of the Suez Canal and unpredictable weather, have provided a sober lesson for the industry. “If we have learned anything, the only certainty is to expect the unexpected, and be as prepared as possible with advanced planning,” added Leung.] =>
即便如此，也有跡象表明經濟在緩慢回暖。去年11月，摩根大通全球製造業採購經理人指數表明業務狀況連續17個月好轉。
摩根大通全球經濟師Olya Borichevska稱，去年11月的全球製造業採購經理人指數還表明“供應制約因素指標適度緩和，產量要素有所增長”，即“工業發展趨勢向好”。
摩根大通還稱，去年11月，全球新訂單數量再次增長，而11月新出口訂單的增速高於10月。
投資銀行野村證券的分析進一步確認了這一點。去年12月初，野村證券稱新冠肺炎疫情封鎖後工廠逐步提高產能有助於克服供應鏈瓶頸，還稱供應商配送時間指數（SDTi）從10月的42.9上升到11月的43.8，其中越南和中國的提高幅度尤其顯著。
越南情況的好轉尤其引人注目。在DHL全球連通性指數中，越南在169個國家當中排名第38位。由於實行了嚴格的社交距離措施，越南GDP下降6.1％，但其出口開始反彈。越南工業貿易部目前預計今年出口額將增長10％。
“看到越南的開放以及健康全球宏觀經濟數據和亞洲出口數據，我對2022年持有謹慎樂觀的態度，”Leung說道。
然而，他很快指出，過去兩年內發生的事件（例如疫情、蘇伊士運河堵塞和不可預測的天氣）給整個行業上了嚴肅的一課。 “從這些事件中我們學到的是，面對未知，我們唯一能做的就是做好預測、提前規劃，防患於未然，”Leung補充道。
[While the supply chain situation is still far from pre-Covid-19 days, constraints are easing in parts. This is because some Asian economies, which remain critical to the supply-side element of global supply chains, have been reopening after strict Covid-19 lockdowns have been lifted.
DHL’s December Ocean Freight Market Update notes that Asia Pacific economies are rebounding from third-quarter setbacks as factories re-open. With the Delta variant wave of Covid-19 subsiding, manufacturing production in Asia Pacific is recovering, led by accelerations in Indonesia, Thailand and India.
In China, the key supplier of products shipped on major trade lanes by container lines, the Caixin/Markit Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 50.6 in November, indicating a return to expansion after the contractionary 50.0 recorded in September. This was partly achieved because power shortages eased substantially after many factories suffered electricity cuts earlier in the year.
This, however, should be tempered with a sense of cautious optimism. “The current disruptions and bottle-necks are expected to carry onto 2022. On a positive note, the PMI numbers have shown that the power shortage in China has not affected the overall production among our customers,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.] => 雖然供應鏈狀況仍然遠遜於新冠肺炎疫情爆發前的時期，但制約因素已經開始部分得到緩解。這是因為在全球供應鏈中關鍵的一些亞洲經濟體已放鬆疫情措施並重新對外開放。
2021年12月DHL《海洋運輸市場最新消息》中提到，隨著工廠重新開工，亞太地區經濟體在第三季度受挫後開始反彈。德爾塔疫情逐漸消退，在印尼、泰國和印度經濟加速增長的推動下，亞太地區的製造業產量開始回升。
中國是集裝箱航運公司主要貿易路線所運送產品的主要供應國，其Caixin／Markit採購經理人指數（PMI）去年11月升高到50.6，表明繼去年9月由於緊縮下降到50.0之後恢復了增長。該情況的部分原因在於，很多工廠去年早些時候經歷了拉閘限電後，電力短缺狀況得到了顯著緩解。
然而，我們對此應當持謹慎樂觀的態度。 “目前中斷和瓶頸的影響預計將延續到2022年。但好的一面是，採購經理人指數表明中國的電力短缺狀況沒有影響我們客戶的總體產量，”DHL全球貨運亞太區首席執行官Kelvin Leung說道。
[wysiwyg] => wysiwyg
[outbound_box] => outbound_box
[Despite continuing risks, there are some positive signs for ocean shipping stakeholders. While the supply chain situation is still far from pre-Covid-19 days, constraints are easing in parts. This is because some Asian economies, which remain critical to the supply-side element of global supply chains, have been reopening after strict Covid-19 lockdowns have been lifted.
DHL’s December Ocean Freight Market Update notes that Asia Pacific economies are rebounding from third-quarter setbacks as factories re-open. With the Delta variant wave of Covid-19 subsiding, manufacturing production in Asia Pacific is recovering, led by accelerations in Indonesia, Thailand and India.
In China, the key supplier of products shipped on major trade lanes by container lines, the Caixin/Markit Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 50.6 in November, indicating a return to expansion after the contractionary 50.0 recorded in September. This was partly achieved because power shortages eased substantially after many factories suffered electricity cuts earlier in the year.
This, however, should be tempered with a sense of cautious optimism. “The current disruptions and bottle-necks are expected to carry onto 2022. On a positive note, the PMI numbers have shown that the power shortage in China has not affected the overall production among our customers,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.
RELATED ARTICLESDHL Ocean Freight Market Update – December 2021Find out the latest developments of the global ocean freight market in this monthly analysis by DHL Global Forwarding.Ongoing operational challenges
Of course, it will not all be plain sailing. Carriers are still opting for blank sailing, thus cancelling routes to maintain its schedule integrity. Due to operational reasons, some have also taken a less disruptive approach with port omissions, skipping only certain ports out of many in their routes.
“Ongoing blank sailings and port omissions, followed by last minute vessel sliding, are reducing the overall capacity in the market and this remain an industry-wide challenge,” notes Dominique von Orelli, Global Head, Ocean Freight, DHL Global Forwarding.
Global vessel schedule reliability improved again in October, but only marginally, and reliability levels remained firmly in the 34-40% range seen throughout the year, according to Sea-Intelligence. And it is worth noting that reliability in October 2021 was down 18 percentage points compared to October 2020 with the average delay for late vessel arrivals dropping only marginally to 7.34 days.
Maersk was once again the most reliable top-14 carrier in October 2021, with schedule reliability of 46.4%, followed by Hamburg Süd with 38.1%.
Worryingly, scheduling shortfalls and port congestion are increasingly cascading into intra-Asia services, further disrupting traffic and leaving large volumes of traffic stuck at transhipment hubs.
Moreover, global port congestion remains a challenge, given that demand is expected to remain strong leading into Chinese New Year.
Adding to possible bottlenecks, China’s strict quarantine rules for seafarers are prompting feeder operators to wind down operations on the Pearl River Delta in southern China from late December until mid-February.
“There are still multiple operational challenges to overcome as we try to ease global supply-chain disruptions,” said von Orelli. “There are clearly multiple risks to any forecasts about the health of global shipping in 2022.”
Easing of supply chain constraints
Even so, there are indications that the economy is slowly improving. In November, the JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI signaled improvements in business conditions for the 17th consecutive month.
Olya Borichevska, Global Economist at JPMorgan, said the November Global Manufacturing PMI also recorded “an increase in the output component against a modest easing across indicators related to supply constraints” with the findings suggesting an “industrial sector moving toward improvement”.
JPMorgan also reported that the volume of global new orders rose again during November, while new export orders increased in November faster than in October.
This is further confirmed by analysis from investment bank Nomura which reported in early December that factories ramping up output after Covid-19 lockdowns were helping to overcome supply chain bottlenecks. It said the Suppliers’ Deliveries Times Index (SDTi) rose to 43.8 in November from 42.9 in October, with improvements particularly noticeable in Vietnam and China.
The turnaround in Vietnam has been particularly striking. Ranked at 38th out of 169 countries in the DHL Global Connectedness Index, Vietnam has seen exports bounce back after it suffered a 6.1 percent contraction in GDP due to strict social distancing regulations. Vietnam’s Ministry of Trade now expects a 10 percent increase in exports this year.
“When I look at Vietnam opening up, on top of the healthy global macroeconomic and Asian export data we’ve seen, I’m cautiously confident for 2022,” said Leung.
But he was quick to point out that events over the last two years, such as the pandemic, the closure of the Suez Canal and unpredictable weather, have provided a sober lesson for the industry. “If we have learned anything, the only certainty is to expect the unexpected, and be as prepared as possible with advanced planning,” added Leung.
RELATED ARTICLESVietnam rises as a manufacturing starAccording to DHL’s Global Connectedness Index 2020, Vietnam ranked 38th out of 169 countries, one place higher than in 2017.] =>
Vietnam rises as a manufacturing star According to DHL’s Global Connectedness Index 2020, Vietnam ranked 38th out of 169 countries, one place higher than in 2017.
[] =>
[rising-export-levels-inspire-cautious-optimism] => rising-export-levels-inspire-cautious-optimism
[Monthly ocean freight update] =>
[OFR-market-update-December-2021-key-image] => OFR-market-update-December-2021-key-image
[DHL Ocean Freight Market Update December 2021] => DHL Ocean Freight Market Update December 2021
[GCI-Vietnam-key-image] => GCI-Vietnam-key-image
[GCI Vietnam] => GCI Vietnam
[ocean-freight-Dec-2021-update-single-column] => ocean-freight-Dec-2021-update-single-column
[DHL Ocean Freight Market Update Dec 2021] => DHL Ocean Freight Market Update Dec 2021
[ocean-freight-Dec-2021-update-key-image] => ocean-freight-Dec-2021-update-key-image
)
[$value] => While the supply chain situation is still far from pre-Covid-19 days, constraints are easing in parts. This is because some Asian economies, which remain critical to the supply-side element of global supply chains, have been reopening after strict Covid-19 lockdowns have been lifted.
DHL’s December Ocean Freight Market Update notes that Asia Pacific economies are rebounding from third-quarter setbacks as factories re-open. With the Delta variant wave of Covid-19 subsiding, manufacturing production in Asia Pacific is recovering, led by accelerations in Indonesia, Thailand and India.
In China, the key supplier of products shipped on major trade lanes by container lines, the Caixin/Markit Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 50.6 in November, indicating a return to expansion after the contractionary 50.0 recorded in September. This was partly achieved because power shortages eased substantially after many factories suffered electricity cuts earlier in the year.
This, however, should be tempered with a sense of cautious optimism. “The current disruptions and bottle-necks are expected to carry onto 2022. On a positive note, the PMI numbers have shown that the power shortage in China has not affected the overall production among our customers,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.
)
Array
(
[derick] => Array
(
[Rising export levels inspire cautious optimism] => 出口水平不斷上升，對未來發展謹慎樂觀
[Despite continuing risks, there are some positive signs for ocean shipping stakeholders.] => 雖然風險持續存在，但遠洋航運利益相關方仍能看見一些積極的信號。
[[]] =>
[Ongoing operational challenges
Of course, it will not all be plain sailing. Carriers are still opting for blank sailing, thus cancelling routes to maintain its schedule integrity. Due to operational reasons, some have also taken a less disruptive approach with port omissions, skipping only certain ports out of many in their routes.
“Ongoing blank sailings and port omissions, followed by last minute vessel sliding, are reducing the overall capacity in the market and this remain an industry-wide challenge,” notes Dominique von Orelli, Global Head, Ocean Freight, DHL Global Forwarding.
Global vessel schedule reliability improved again in October, but only marginally, and reliability levels remained firmly in the 34-40% range seen throughout the year, according to Sea-Intelligence. And it is worth noting that reliability in October 2021 was down 18 percentage points compared to October 2020 with the average delay for late vessel arrivals dropping only marginally to 7.34 days.
Maersk was once again the most reliable top-14 carrier in October 2021, with schedule reliability of 46.4%, followed by Hamburg Süd with 38.1%.
Worryingly, scheduling shortfalls and port congestion are increasingly cascading into intra-Asia services, further disrupting traffic and leaving large volumes of traffic stuck at transhipment hubs.
Moreover, global port congestion remains a challenge, given that demand is expected to remain strong leading into Chinese New Year.
Adding to possible bottlenecks, China’s strict quarantine rules for seafarers are prompting feeder operators to wind down operations on the Pearl River Delta in southern China from late December until mid-February.
“There are still multiple operational challenges to overcome as we try to ease global supply-chain disruptions,” said von Orelli. “There are clearly multiple risks to any forecasts about the health of global shipping in 2022.”
Easing of supply chain constraints
Even so, there are indications that the economy is slowly improving. In November, the JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI signaled improvements in business conditions for the 17th consecutive month.
Olya Borichevska, Global Economist at JPMorgan, said the November Global Manufacturing PMI also recorded “an increase in the output component against a modest easing across indicators related to supply constraints” with the findings suggesting an “industrial sector moving toward improvement”.
JPMorgan also reported that the volume of global new orders rose again during November, while new export orders increased in November faster than in October.
This is further confirmed by analysis from investment bank Nomura which reported in early December that factories ramping up output after Covid-19 lockdowns were helping to overcome supply chain bottlenecks. It said the Suppliers’ Deliveries Times Index (SDTi) rose to 43.8 in November from 42.9 in October, with improvements particularly noticeable in Vietnam and China.
The turnaround in Vietnam has been particularly striking. Ranked at 38th out of 169 countries in the DHL Global Connectedness Index, Vietnam has seen exports bounce back after it suffered a 6.1 percent contraction in GDP due to strict social distancing regulations. Vietnam’s Ministry of Trade now expects a 10 percent increase in exports this year.
“When I look at Vietnam opening up, on top of the healthy global macroeconomic and Asian export data we’ve seen, I’m cautiously confident for 2022,” said Leung.
But he was quick to point out that events over the last two years, such as the pandemic, the closure of the Suez Canal and unpredictable weather, have provided a sober lesson for the industry. “If we have learned anything, the only certainty is to expect the unexpected, and be as prepared as possible with advanced planning,” added Leung.] =>
即便如此，也有跡象表明經濟在緩慢回暖。去年11月，摩根大通全球製造業採購經理人指數表明業務狀況連續17個月好轉。
摩根大通全球經濟師Olya Borichevska稱，去年11月的全球製造業採購經理人指數還表明“供應制約因素指標適度緩和，產量要素有所增長”，即“工業發展趨勢向好”。
摩根大通還稱，去年11月，全球新訂單數量再次增長，而11月新出口訂單的增速高於10月。
投資銀行野村證券的分析進一步確認了這一點。去年12月初，野村證券稱新冠肺炎疫情封鎖後工廠逐步提高產能有助於克服供應鏈瓶頸，還稱供應商配送時間指數（SDTi）從10月的42.9上升到11月的43.8，其中越南和中國的提高幅度尤其顯著。
越南情況的好轉尤其引人注目。在DHL全球連通性指數中，越南在169個國家當中排名第38位。由於實行了嚴格的社交距離措施，越南GDP下降6.1％，但其出口開始反彈。越南工業貿易部目前預計今年出口額將增長10％。
“看到越南的開放以及健康全球宏觀經濟數據和亞洲出口數據，我對2022年持有謹慎樂觀的態度，”Leung說道。
然而，他很快指出，過去兩年內發生的事件（例如疫情、蘇伊士運河堵塞和不可預測的天氣）給整個行業上了嚴肅的一課。 “從這些事件中我們學到的是，面對未知，我們唯一能做的就是做好預測、提前規劃，防患於未然，”Leung補充道。
[While the supply chain situation is still far from pre-Covid-19 days, constraints are easing in parts. This is because some Asian economies, which remain critical to the supply-side element of global supply chains, have been reopening after strict Covid-19 lockdowns have been lifted.
DHL’s December Ocean Freight Market Update notes that Asia Pacific economies are rebounding from third-quarter setbacks as factories re-open. With the Delta variant wave of Covid-19 subsiding, manufacturing production in Asia Pacific is recovering, led by accelerations in Indonesia, Thailand and India.
In China, the key supplier of products shipped on major trade lanes by container lines, the Caixin/Markit Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 50.6 in November, indicating a return to expansion after the contractionary 50.0 recorded in September. This was partly achieved because power shortages eased substantially after many factories suffered electricity cuts earlier in the year.
This, however, should be tempered with a sense of cautious optimism. “The current disruptions and bottle-necks are expected to carry onto 2022. On a positive note, the PMI numbers have shown that the power shortage in China has not affected the overall production among our customers,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.] => 雖然供應鏈狀況仍然遠遜於新冠肺炎疫情爆發前的時期，但制約因素已經開始部分得到緩解。這是因為在全球供應鏈中關鍵的一些亞洲經濟體已放鬆疫情措施並重新對外開放。
2021年12月DHL《海洋運輸市場最新消息》中提到，隨著工廠重新開工，亞太地區經濟體在第三季度受挫後開始反彈。德爾塔疫情逐漸消退，在印尼、泰國和印度經濟加速增長的推動下，亞太地區的製造業產量開始回升。
中國是集裝箱航運公司主要貿易路線所運送產品的主要供應國，其Caixin／Markit採購經理人指數（PMI）去年11月升高到50.6，表明繼去年9月由於緊縮下降到50.0之後恢復了增長。該情況的部分原因在於，很多工廠去年早些時候經歷了拉閘限電後，電力短缺狀況得到了顯著緩解。
然而，我們對此應當持謹慎樂觀的態度。 “目前中斷和瓶頸的影響預計將延續到2022年。但好的一面是，採購經理人指數表明中國的電力短缺狀況沒有影響我們客戶的總體產量，”DHL全球貨運亞太區首席執行官Kelvin Leung說道。
[wysiwyg] => wysiwyg
[outbound_box] => outbound_box
[Despite continuing risks, there are some positive signs for ocean shipping stakeholders. While the supply chain situation is still far from pre-Covid-19 days, constraints are easing in parts. This is because some Asian economies, which remain critical to the supply-side element of global supply chains, have been reopening after strict Covid-19 lockdowns have been lifted.
DHL’s December Ocean Freight Market Update notes that Asia Pacific economies are rebounding from third-quarter setbacks as factories re-open. With the Delta variant wave of Covid-19 subsiding, manufacturing production in Asia Pacific is recovering, led by accelerations in Indonesia, Thailand and India.
In China, the key supplier of products shipped on major trade lanes by container lines, the Caixin/Markit Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 50.6 in November, indicating a return to expansion after the contractionary 50.0 recorded in September. This was partly achieved because power shortages eased substantially after many factories suffered electricity cuts earlier in the year.
This, however, should be tempered with a sense of cautious optimism. “The current disruptions and bottle-necks are expected to carry onto 2022. On a positive note, the PMI numbers have shown that the power shortage in China has not affected the overall production among our customers,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.
RELATED ARTICLESDHL Ocean Freight Market Update – December 2021Find out the latest developments of the global ocean freight market in this monthly analysis by DHL Global Forwarding.Ongoing operational challenges
Of course, it will not all be plain sailing. Carriers are still opting for blank sailing, thus cancelling routes to maintain its schedule integrity. Due to operational reasons, some have also taken a less disruptive approach with port omissions, skipping only certain ports out of many in their routes.
“Ongoing blank sailings and port omissions, followed by last minute vessel sliding, are reducing the overall capacity in the market and this remain an industry-wide challenge,” notes Dominique von Orelli, Global Head, Ocean Freight, DHL Global Forwarding.
Global vessel schedule reliability improved again in October, but only marginally, and reliability levels remained firmly in the 34-40% range seen throughout the year, according to Sea-Intelligence. And it is worth noting that reliability in October 2021 was down 18 percentage points compared to October 2020 with the average delay for late vessel arrivals dropping only marginally to 7.34 days.
Maersk was once again the most reliable top-14 carrier in October 2021, with schedule reliability of 46.4%, followed by Hamburg Süd with 38.1%.
Worryingly, scheduling shortfalls and port congestion are increasingly cascading into intra-Asia services, further disrupting traffic and leaving large volumes of traffic stuck at transhipment hubs.
Moreover, global port congestion remains a challenge, given that demand is expected to remain strong leading into Chinese New Year.
Adding to possible bottlenecks, China’s strict quarantine rules for seafarers are prompting feeder operators to wind down operations on the Pearl River Delta in southern China from late December until mid-February.
“There are still multiple operational challenges to overcome as we try to ease global supply-chain disruptions,” said von Orelli. “There are clearly multiple risks to any forecasts about the health of global shipping in 2022.”
Easing of supply chain constraints
Even so, there are indications that the economy is slowly improving. In November, the JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI signaled improvements in business conditions for the 17th consecutive month.
Olya Borichevska, Global Economist at JPMorgan, said the November Global Manufacturing PMI also recorded “an increase in the output component against a modest easing across indicators related to supply constraints” with the findings suggesting an “industrial sector moving toward improvement”.
JPMorgan also reported that the volume of global new orders rose again during November, while new export orders increased in November faster than in October.
This is further confirmed by analysis from investment bank Nomura which reported in early December that factories ramping up output after Covid-19 lockdowns were helping to overcome supply chain bottlenecks. It said the Suppliers’ Deliveries Times Index (SDTi) rose to 43.8 in November from 42.9 in October, with improvements particularly noticeable in Vietnam and China.
The turnaround in Vietnam has been particularly striking. Ranked at 38th out of 169 countries in the DHL Global Connectedness Index, Vietnam has seen exports bounce back after it suffered a 6.1 percent contraction in GDP due to strict social distancing regulations. Vietnam’s Ministry of Trade now expects a 10 percent increase in exports this year.
“When I look at Vietnam opening up, on top of the healthy global macroeconomic and Asian export data we’ve seen, I’m cautiously confident for 2022,” said Leung.
But he was quick to point out that events over the last two years, such as the pandemic, the closure of the Suez Canal and unpredictable weather, have provided a sober lesson for the industry. “If we have learned anything, the only certainty is to expect the unexpected, and be as prepared as possible with advanced planning,” added Leung.
RELATED ARTICLESVietnam rises as a manufacturing starAccording to DHL’s Global Connectedness Index 2020, Vietnam ranked 38th out of 169 countries, one place higher than in 2017.] =>
Vietnam rises as a manufacturing star According to DHL’s Global Connectedness Index 2020, Vietnam ranked 38th out of 169 countries, one place higher than in 2017.
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[DHL Ocean Freight Market Update December 2021] => DHL Ocean Freight Market Update December 2021
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[DHL Ocean Freight Market Update Dec 2021] => DHL Ocean Freight Market Update Dec 2021
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[$value] => Ongoing operational challenges
Of course, it will not all be plain sailing. Carriers are still opting for blank sailing, thus cancelling routes to maintain its schedule integrity. Due to operational reasons, some have also taken a less disruptive approach with port omissions, skipping only certain ports out of many in their routes.
“Ongoing blank sailings and port omissions, followed by last minute vessel sliding, are reducing the overall capacity in the market and this remain an industry-wide challenge,” notes Dominique von Orelli, Global Head, Ocean Freight, DHL Global Forwarding.
Global vessel schedule reliability improved again in October, but only marginally, and reliability levels remained firmly in the 34-40% range seen throughout the year, according to Sea-Intelligence. And it is worth noting that reliability in October 2021 was down 18 percentage points compared to October 2020 with the average delay for late vessel arrivals dropping only marginally to 7.34 days.
Maersk was once again the most reliable top-14 carrier in October 2021, with schedule reliability of 46.4%, followed by Hamburg Süd with 38.1%.
Worryingly, scheduling shortfalls and port congestion are increasingly cascading into intra-Asia services, further disrupting traffic and leaving large volumes of traffic stuck at transhipment hubs.
Moreover, global port congestion remains a challenge, given that demand is expected to remain strong leading into Chinese New Year.
Adding to possible bottlenecks, China’s strict quarantine rules for seafarers are prompting feeder operators to wind down operations on the Pearl River Delta in southern China from late December until mid-February.
“There are still multiple operational challenges to overcome as we try to ease global supply-chain disruptions,” said von Orelli. “There are clearly multiple risks to any forecasts about the health of global shipping in 2022.”
Easing of supply chain constraints
Even so, there are indications that the economy is slowly improving. In November, the JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI signaled improvements in business conditions for the 17th consecutive month.
Olya Borichevska, Global Economist at JPMorgan, said the November Global Manufacturing PMI also recorded “an increase in the output component against a modest easing across indicators related to supply constraints” with the findings suggesting an “industrial sector moving toward improvement”.
JPMorgan also reported that the volume of global new orders rose again during November, while new export orders increased in November faster than in October.
This is further confirmed by analysis from investment bank Nomura which reported in early December that factories ramping up output after Covid-19 lockdowns were helping to overcome supply chain bottlenecks. It said the Suppliers’ Deliveries Times Index (SDTi) rose to 43.8 in November from 42.9 in October, with improvements particularly noticeable in Vietnam and China.
The turnaround in Vietnam has been particularly striking. Ranked at 38th out of 169 countries in the DHL Global Connectedness Index, Vietnam has seen exports bounce back after it suffered a 6.1 percent contraction in GDP due to strict social distancing regulations. Vietnam’s Ministry of Trade now expects a 10 percent increase in exports this year.
“When I look at Vietnam opening up, on top of the healthy global macroeconomic and Asian export data we’ve seen, I’m cautiously confident for 2022,” said Leung.
But he was quick to point out that events over the last two years, such as the pandemic, the closure of the Suez Canal and unpredictable weather, have provided a sober lesson for the industry. “If we have learned anything, the only certainty is to expect the unexpected, and be as prepared as possible with advanced planning,” added Leung.
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