Array
(
[derick] => Array
(
[Port congestions set the tone for a volatile 2022] => Port congestions set the tone for a volatile 2022
[Ports will remain a bottleneck in the supply chain, with capacity and reliability only likely to stabilize later in this year or next.] => 港口仍將成為供應鏈中的瓶頸，運力和可靠性只有到今年下半年或者明年才有可能穩定下來。
[[]] =>
[Covid-19’s long shadow
Covid-19 itself remains a key antagonist. The spread of the highly infectious Omicron variant has led to numerous flights being cancelled due to new travel restrictions that impacted major cargo hubs including Hong Kong.
More damaging for container shipping stakeholders was a spate of Covid-19 cases in the Chinese industrial hub of Ningbo in late December. Ningbo had already suffered a string of partial lockdowns under China’s strict zero-Covid policy during the second half of 2021.
The latest outbreak, in this case of the Delta variant according to various reports, took place at a clothing company in the Beilun District, a significant hub for both manufacturers as well as home to a string of container terminals.
The latest lockdown in Ningbo threatened the region’s ability to keep its manufacturing output at full pelt ahead of Chinese New Year factory closures. It also impacted the efficiency of trucking services and the operation of Ningbo-Zhoushan port, the world’s third largest container hub by volume.
Elsewhere in China, shipping on the Yangtze River, a key artery between industrial conurbations inland and coastal ports, was thrown into disarray at the turn of the year when some 200 vessel pilots were placed in 14-day quarantines after two pilots tested positive for Covid-19 in late 2021.
With so much capacity tied up at ports, the container shipping freight market tightened once again at the turn of the year. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), a bellwether of container freight markets ex-China, broke through the 5,000 mark for the first time in its history. This is a huge annual rise when compared to the 2,783 points recorded on 31 December 2020.
Moving the problem
Atop that, other forces are challenging any quick recovery. Supply chains have also been buffeted by heavy rain fall across South East Asia, with flash flooding in Malaysia resulting in delays costing millions at Port Klang.
Efforts to alleviate bottlenecks have in some cases contributed to the uncertainty. Some carriers have opted to omit some ports but this has had significant consequences for customers shipping via these ports. Multiple port omissions have also made it difficult to measure the reliability of liner services.
Measures have been put in place to alleviate port congestion at the ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles, which includes additional charges for containers that stay beyond a stipulated timeline. This, however, have only served to move vessels to anchorages outside ports or had resulted in vessels slow steaming or being diverted to alternative ports.] =>
除此之外，其他因素也給快速恢復帶來了挑戰。供應鏈還受到東南亞暴雨的衝擊，其中馬來西亞的山洪爆發造成的延誤讓巴生港蒙受數百萬美元的損失。
在某些情形下，緩解瓶頸的工作增加了不確定性。某些承運商選擇跳港，但給通過這些港口運輸的客戶造成了嚴重後果。多次跳港的情況也使得難以衡量班輪服務的可靠性。
長灘港和洛杉磯港都已採取措施緩解港口擁堵，其中包括對逗留超過規定時間的集裝箱收取額外費用。然而，這樣做只是將船隻轉移到港口外的錨地，或者導致船隻減速航行或者轉道備選港口。
[Expected recovery to a new normal from 2023
But there are reasons for some cautious optimism. Carriers have been trying to fill gaps in the schedule by organizing extra sailings. Many businesses, on the other hand, have learned to plan their orders as far as possible to secure capacity.
There are hopes that the usual slowdown in manufacturing over Chinese New Year in February may help. “We are hopeful that the reduction in demand will ease the congestion situation at some ports, and help bring the reliability of the carrier schedules to a more normal situation,” said Leung.
But bottlenecks at ports are likely to play a major role in the efficiency and reliability of ocean supply chains for most of 2022. Jefferies analyst Randy Giveans calculated that in November last year, an average of 36.2 percent of total boxship capacity was stuck at ports.
Dominique von Orelli, Global Head, Ocean Freight, DHL Global Forwarding, notes that the supply and demand situation, at least for the first half of the year, will remain similar to last year. ”We are expecting volatility in supply in the first half of 2022 to continue largely along similar lines as 2021,” said von Orelli.
Jefferies’ Giveans also believes efforts to reduce bottlenecks may yield fruit later in the year. “It is likely that freight rates will soften from these peak levels during 2022 as congestion problems ease,” he noted.] =>
預計從2023開始恢復新常態
然而，保持一定程度的謹慎樂觀是有原因的。承運商一直嘗試通過增加航班來填補空缺。另一方面，不少企業學會了盡可能地對訂單進行規劃以保障運力。
今年春節期間通常的製造業減速有希望緩解這個狀況。 “我們希望需求減少可以緩解某些港口的擁堵狀況，而且讓承運商的船期可靠性達到較為正常的水平，”Leung說道。
然而，在2022年大部分時間裡，港口瓶頸很可能在海運供應鏈的效率和可靠性方面起到舉足輕重的作用。根據傑富瑞集團分析師Randy Giveans的計算，去年11月，平均有36.2％的集裝箱船運力擁堵在港口。
DHL全球貨運海運部全球主管Dominique von Orelli稱，至少在今年上半年內，供需狀況仍然與去年相似。 “我們預計2022年上半年供應狀況的易變性仍將基本沿著2021年相似的軌跡發展，”von Orelli說道。
傑富瑞集團Giveans還認為緩解瓶頸所做的努力可能會在今年晚些時候取得成果。 “2022年內，隨著擁堵問題的緩解，運價很可能會從峰值水平回落，”他說道。
[However, it will only be when pent-up demand is satisfied – in part by an influx of new capacity – that global GDP growth will settle into a more regular pattern, according to the DHL Ocean Freight Market Outlook 2022-2024 report. The report noted that container vessel order books are at the highest level in 10 years, with the majority of container vessels being built in China. Should container production remain stable, supply growth will overtake demand growth in 2023 as recent orders start to be delivered.
In 2023 and 2024, when the availability of equipment has improved, and global port congestion has eased, freight rates will gradually stabilize. The caveat, however, is that rates will be at far higher levels than pre-Covid days.
In the meantime, customers should work closely with their shipping partners to protect themselves from the worst of the crisis. "To secure ocean freight supply chains in the short- and medium-term, customers are advised to plan ahead with accurate inventory and order forecasts, and consider long-term agreements with carriers,” said von Orelli.] => 然而，《DHL海運市場展望》（2022-2024年）報告稱，只有等積壓需求得到滿足――部分通過投入新運力，全球GDP增長才會進入較為正常的模式。報告提到，集裝箱船訂單數量達到了過去十年內的最高水平，其中大多數集裝箱船在中國建造。如果集裝箱產量保持穩定，那麼隨著最近訂單開始交付，2023年供應增長速度將超過需求增長速度。
2023年和2024年，隨著設備可用性的提高以及全球港口擁堵狀況的緩解，運價將逐漸穩定。然而，需要注意的是運價將遠高於疫情爆發前的水平。
與此同時，客戶應當與運輸合作夥伴密切合作，保護自身在危機最嚴重的時期不受影響。 “為了在短期和中期內保障海運供應鏈，建議客戶根據準確的庫存和訂單預測提前進行規劃，並且考慮與承運商簽訂長期協議，”von Orelli說道。
[Ongoing port congestion, and the limited success of efforts to ease bottlenecks, have dampened hopes of a brighter outlook for ocean freight in 2022.
Although the upcoming Chinese New Year may help ease some of the backlog, supply is likely to remain volatile through the remainder of the year, with conditions improving only in 2023.
“We’re expecting 2022 to be volatile, and while there will be improvements, I would expect the market conditions will remain pretty much the same as 2021, if not more challenging,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.
At the turn of the year, prospects for trade and economic growth in 2022 were expected to brighten. However ports remain congested, taking a heavy toll on the reliability of liner services.
DHL’s Ocean Freight Market Outlook 2022-2024 report notes that carrier schedule reliability is now at an all-time low, with even the best performing carriers barely managing 45 percent ‘on-time’ performance and the worst falling below the 20 percent mark.] => 港口擁堵仍在繼續，而且緩解瓶頸的努力收效甚微，給2022年海洋貨運的前景蒙上了一層陰影。
雖然即將來臨的春節有助於在一定程度上緩解積壓狀況，但本年度餘下時間內供應情況很可能仍然變化無常，只有到2023年情況才會有所改善。
“我們預計2022年是一個變化無常的一年，雖然情況會有所改善，但我預計市場行情仍然與2021年幾乎相同，甚至可能更具挑戰性，”DHL全球貨運亞太區首席執行官Kelvin Leung說道。
今年年初，預計2022年貿易和經濟增長前景將看好。然而，港口擁堵現象仍然存在，給班輪業務的穩定性造成了很大影響。
《DHL海運市場展望》（2022-2024年）報告提到，承運商的船期可靠性目前處於歷史最低水平，即使是表現最好的承運商也很難達到45％“準時”的水平，表現最差的承運商已經跌破20％大關。
[wysiwyg] => wysiwyg
[outbound_box] => outbound_box
[Ports will remain a bottleneck in the supply chain, with capacity and reliability only likely to stabilize later in this year or next. Ongoing port congestion, and the limited success of efforts to ease bottlenecks, have dampened hopes of a brighter outlook for ocean freight in 2022.
Although the upcoming Chinese New Year may help ease some of the backlog, supply is likely to remain volatile through the remainder of the year, with conditions improving only in 2023.
“We’re expecting 2022 to be volatile, and while there will be improvements, I would expect the market conditions will remain pretty much the same as 2021, if not more challenging,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.
At the turn of the year, prospects for trade and economic growth in 2022 were expected to brighten. However ports remain congested, taking a heavy toll on the reliability of liner services.
DHL’s Ocean Freight Market Outlook 2022-2024 report notes that carrier schedule reliability is now at an all-time low, with even the best performing carriers barely managing 45 percent ‘on-time’ performance and the worst falling below the 20 percent mark.
RELATED ARTICLESDHL Ocean Freight Market Update Outlook 2022-2024Demand remains strong amidst limited capacity, with freight rates looking to stabilize much later in 2024.Covid-19’s long shadow
Covid-19 itself remains a key antagonist. The spread of the highly infectious Omicron variant has led to numerous flights being cancelled due to new travel restrictions that impacted major cargo hubs including Hong Kong.
More damaging for container shipping stakeholders was a spate of Covid-19 cases in the Chinese industrial hub of Ningbo in late December. Ningbo had already suffered a string of partial lockdowns under China’s strict zero-Covid policy during the second half of 2021.
The latest outbreak, in this case of the Delta variant according to various reports, took place at a clothing company in the Beilun District, a significant hub for both manufacturers as well as home to a string of container terminals.
The latest lockdown in Ningbo threatened the region’s ability to keep its manufacturing output at full pelt ahead of Chinese New Year factory closures. It also impacted the efficiency of trucking services and the operation of Ningbo-Zhoushan port, the world’s third largest container hub by volume.
Elsewhere in China, shipping on the Yangtze River, a key artery between industrial conurbations inland and coastal ports, was thrown into disarray at the turn of the year when some 200 vessel pilots were placed in 14-day quarantines after two pilots tested positive for Covid-19 in late 2021.
With so much capacity tied up at ports, the container shipping freight market tightened once again at the turn of the year. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), a bellwether of container freight markets ex-China, broke through the 5,000 mark for the first time in its history. This is a huge annual rise when compared to the 2,783 points recorded on 31 December 2020.
Moving the problem
Atop that, other forces are challenging any quick recovery. Supply chains have also been buffeted by heavy rain fall across South East Asia, with flash flooding in Malaysia resulting in delays costing millions at Port Klang.
Efforts to alleviate bottlenecks have in some cases contributed to the uncertainty. Some carriers have opted to omit some ports but this has had significant consequences for customers shipping via these ports. Multiple port omissions have also made it difficult to measure the reliability of liner services.
Measures have been put in place to alleviate port congestion at the ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles, which includes additional charges for containers that stay beyond a stipulated timeline. This, however, have only served to move vessels to anchorages outside ports or had resulted in vessels slow steaming or being diverted to alternative ports.
RELATED ARTICLESNew high-speed railway puts Laos on track to boost regional tradeThe rail network will place Laos as a land-linked hub, connecting China to more regions with viable alternatives from ocean and air options.Expected recovery to a new normal from 2023
But there are reasons for some cautious optimism. Carriers have been trying to fill gaps in the schedule by organizing extra sailings. Many businesses, on the other hand, have learned to plan their orders as far as possible to secure capacity.
There are hopes that the usual slowdown in manufacturing over Chinese New Year in February may help. “We are hopeful that the reduction in demand will ease the congestion situation at some ports, and help bring the reliability of the carrier schedules to a more normal situation,” said Leung.
But bottlenecks at ports are likely to play a major role in the efficiency and reliability of ocean supply chains for most of 2022. Jefferies analyst Randy Giveans calculated that in November last year, an average of 36.2 percent of total boxship capacity was stuck at ports.
Dominique von Orelli, Global Head, Ocean Freight, DHL Global Forwarding, notes that the supply and demand situation, at least for the first half of the year, will remain similar to last year. ”We are expecting volatility in supply in the first half of 2022 to continue largely along similar lines as 2021,” said von Orelli.
Jefferies’ Giveans also believes efforts to reduce bottlenecks may yield fruit later in the year. “It is likely that freight rates will soften from these peak levels during 2022 as congestion problems ease,” he noted.
RELATED ARTICLESFreight rates remain high but show signs of softeningGlobal recovery is starting, despite China’s power cuts and zero Covid strategy having an impact.However, it will only be when pent-up demand is satisfied – in part by an influx of new capacity – that global GDP growth will settle into a more regular pattern, according to the DHL Ocean Freight Market Outlook 2022-2024 report. The report noted that container vessel order books are at the highest level in 10 years, with the majority of container vessels being built in China. Should container production remain stable, supply growth will overtake demand growth in 2023 as recent orders start to be delivered.
In 2023 and 2024, when the availability of equipment has improved, and global port congestion has eased, freight rates will gradually stabilize. The caveat, however, is that rates will be at far higher levels than pre-Covid days.
In the meantime, customers should work closely with their shipping partners to protect themselves from the worst of the crisis. “To secure ocean freight supply chains in the short- and medium-term, customers are advised to plan ahead with accurate inventory and order forecasts, and consider long-term agreements with carriers,” said von Orelli.] =>
[] =>
[port-congestions-volatile-2022] => port-congestions-volatile-2022
[Monthly ocean freight update] =>
[OFR-market-update-Jan-2022-key-image] => OFR-market-update-Jan-2022-key-image
[Ocean Freight Market Update 2022-2024] => Ocean Freight Market Update 2022-2024
[China-Laos-railway-service-launch-key-image] => China-Laos-railway-service-launch-key-image
[China-Laos railway service launch] => China-Laos railway service launch
[ocean-freight-Nov-2021-update-key-image] => ocean-freight-Nov-2021-update-key-image
[Ocean Freight report Nov 2021 update] => Ocean Freight report Nov 2021 update
[port-congestions-volatile-2022-single-column] => port-congestions-volatile-2022-single-column
[port-congestions-volatile-2022-key-image] => port-congestions-volatile-2022-key-image
)
[$value] => Ongoing port congestion, and the limited success of efforts to ease bottlenecks, have dampened hopes of a brighter outlook for ocean freight in 2022.
Although the upcoming Chinese New Year may help ease some of the backlog, supply is likely to remain volatile through the remainder of the year, with conditions improving only in 2023.
“We’re expecting 2022 to be volatile, and while there will be improvements, I would expect the market conditions will remain pretty much the same as 2021, if not more challenging,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.
At the turn of the year, prospects for trade and economic growth in 2022 were expected to brighten. However ports remain congested, taking a heavy toll on the reliability of liner services.
DHL’s Ocean Freight Market Outlook 2022-2024 report notes that carrier schedule reliability is now at an all-time low, with even the best performing carriers barely managing 45 percent ‘on-time’ performance and the worst falling below the 20 percent mark.
)
Array
(
[derick] => Array
(
[Port congestions set the tone for a volatile 2022] => Port congestions set the tone for a volatile 2022
[Ports will remain a bottleneck in the supply chain, with capacity and reliability only likely to stabilize later in this year or next.] => 港口仍將成為供應鏈中的瓶頸，運力和可靠性只有到今年下半年或者明年才有可能穩定下來。
[[]] =>
[Covid-19’s long shadow
Covid-19 itself remains a key antagonist. The spread of the highly infectious Omicron variant has led to numerous flights being cancelled due to new travel restrictions that impacted major cargo hubs including Hong Kong.
More damaging for container shipping stakeholders was a spate of Covid-19 cases in the Chinese industrial hub of Ningbo in late December. Ningbo had already suffered a string of partial lockdowns under China’s strict zero-Covid policy during the second half of 2021.
The latest outbreak, in this case of the Delta variant according to various reports, took place at a clothing company in the Beilun District, a significant hub for both manufacturers as well as home to a string of container terminals.
The latest lockdown in Ningbo threatened the region’s ability to keep its manufacturing output at full pelt ahead of Chinese New Year factory closures. It also impacted the efficiency of trucking services and the operation of Ningbo-Zhoushan port, the world’s third largest container hub by volume.
Elsewhere in China, shipping on the Yangtze River, a key artery between industrial conurbations inland and coastal ports, was thrown into disarray at the turn of the year when some 200 vessel pilots were placed in 14-day quarantines after two pilots tested positive for Covid-19 in late 2021.
With so much capacity tied up at ports, the container shipping freight market tightened once again at the turn of the year. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), a bellwether of container freight markets ex-China, broke through the 5,000 mark for the first time in its history. This is a huge annual rise when compared to the 2,783 points recorded on 31 December 2020.
Moving the problem
Atop that, other forces are challenging any quick recovery. Supply chains have also been buffeted by heavy rain fall across South East Asia, with flash flooding in Malaysia resulting in delays costing millions at Port Klang.
Efforts to alleviate bottlenecks have in some cases contributed to the uncertainty. Some carriers have opted to omit some ports but this has had significant consequences for customers shipping via these ports. Multiple port omissions have also made it difficult to measure the reliability of liner services.
Measures have been put in place to alleviate port congestion at the ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles, which includes additional charges for containers that stay beyond a stipulated timeline. This, however, have only served to move vessels to anchorages outside ports or had resulted in vessels slow steaming or being diverted to alternative ports.] =>
除此之外，其他因素也給快速恢復帶來了挑戰。供應鏈還受到東南亞暴雨的衝擊，其中馬來西亞的山洪爆發造成的延誤讓巴生港蒙受數百萬美元的損失。
在某些情形下，緩解瓶頸的工作增加了不確定性。某些承運商選擇跳港，但給通過這些港口運輸的客戶造成了嚴重後果。多次跳港的情況也使得難以衡量班輪服務的可靠性。
長灘港和洛杉磯港都已採取措施緩解港口擁堵，其中包括對逗留超過規定時間的集裝箱收取額外費用。然而，這樣做只是將船隻轉移到港口外的錨地，或者導致船隻減速航行或者轉道備選港口。
[Expected recovery to a new normal from 2023
But there are reasons for some cautious optimism. Carriers have been trying to fill gaps in the schedule by organizing extra sailings. Many businesses, on the other hand, have learned to plan their orders as far as possible to secure capacity.
There are hopes that the usual slowdown in manufacturing over Chinese New Year in February may help. “We are hopeful that the reduction in demand will ease the congestion situation at some ports, and help bring the reliability of the carrier schedules to a more normal situation,” said Leung.
But bottlenecks at ports are likely to play a major role in the efficiency and reliability of ocean supply chains for most of 2022. Jefferies analyst Randy Giveans calculated that in November last year, an average of 36.2 percent of total boxship capacity was stuck at ports.
Dominique von Orelli, Global Head, Ocean Freight, DHL Global Forwarding, notes that the supply and demand situation, at least for the first half of the year, will remain similar to last year. ”We are expecting volatility in supply in the first half of 2022 to continue largely along similar lines as 2021,” said von Orelli.
Jefferies’ Giveans also believes efforts to reduce bottlenecks may yield fruit later in the year. “It is likely that freight rates will soften from these peak levels during 2022 as congestion problems ease,” he noted.] =>
預計從2023開始恢復新常態
然而，保持一定程度的謹慎樂觀是有原因的。承運商一直嘗試通過增加航班來填補空缺。另一方面，不少企業學會了盡可能地對訂單進行規劃以保障運力。
今年春節期間通常的製造業減速有希望緩解這個狀況。 “我們希望需求減少可以緩解某些港口的擁堵狀況，而且讓承運商的船期可靠性達到較為正常的水平，”Leung說道。
然而，在2022年大部分時間裡，港口瓶頸很可能在海運供應鏈的效率和可靠性方面起到舉足輕重的作用。根據傑富瑞集團分析師Randy Giveans的計算，去年11月，平均有36.2％的集裝箱船運力擁堵在港口。
DHL全球貨運海運部全球主管Dominique von Orelli稱，至少在今年上半年內，供需狀況仍然與去年相似。 “我們預計2022年上半年供應狀況的易變性仍將基本沿著2021年相似的軌跡發展，”von Orelli說道。
傑富瑞集團Giveans還認為緩解瓶頸所做的努力可能會在今年晚些時候取得成果。 “2022年內，隨著擁堵問題的緩解，運價很可能會從峰值水平回落，”他說道。
[However, it will only be when pent-up demand is satisfied – in part by an influx of new capacity – that global GDP growth will settle into a more regular pattern, according to the DHL Ocean Freight Market Outlook 2022-2024 report. The report noted that container vessel order books are at the highest level in 10 years, with the majority of container vessels being built in China. Should container production remain stable, supply growth will overtake demand growth in 2023 as recent orders start to be delivered.
In 2023 and 2024, when the availability of equipment has improved, and global port congestion has eased, freight rates will gradually stabilize. The caveat, however, is that rates will be at far higher levels than pre-Covid days.
In the meantime, customers should work closely with their shipping partners to protect themselves from the worst of the crisis. "To secure ocean freight supply chains in the short- and medium-term, customers are advised to plan ahead with accurate inventory and order forecasts, and consider long-term agreements with carriers,” said von Orelli.] => 然而，《DHL海運市場展望》（2022-2024年）報告稱，只有等積壓需求得到滿足――部分通過投入新運力，全球GDP增長才會進入較為正常的模式。報告提到，集裝箱船訂單數量達到了過去十年內的最高水平，其中大多數集裝箱船在中國建造。如果集裝箱產量保持穩定，那麼隨著最近訂單開始交付，2023年供應增長速度將超過需求增長速度。
2023年和2024年，隨著設備可用性的提高以及全球港口擁堵狀況的緩解，運價將逐漸穩定。然而，需要注意的是運價將遠高於疫情爆發前的水平。
與此同時，客戶應當與運輸合作夥伴密切合作，保護自身在危機最嚴重的時期不受影響。 “為了在短期和中期內保障海運供應鏈，建議客戶根據準確的庫存和訂單預測提前進行規劃，並且考慮與承運商簽訂長期協議，”von Orelli說道。
[Ongoing port congestion, and the limited success of efforts to ease bottlenecks, have dampened hopes of a brighter outlook for ocean freight in 2022.
Although the upcoming Chinese New Year may help ease some of the backlog, supply is likely to remain volatile through the remainder of the year, with conditions improving only in 2023.
“We’re expecting 2022 to be volatile, and while there will be improvements, I would expect the market conditions will remain pretty much the same as 2021, if not more challenging,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.
At the turn of the year, prospects for trade and economic growth in 2022 were expected to brighten. However ports remain congested, taking a heavy toll on the reliability of liner services.
DHL’s Ocean Freight Market Outlook 2022-2024 report notes that carrier schedule reliability is now at an all-time low, with even the best performing carriers barely managing 45 percent ‘on-time’ performance and the worst falling below the 20 percent mark.] => 港口擁堵仍在繼續，而且緩解瓶頸的努力收效甚微，給2022年海洋貨運的前景蒙上了一層陰影。
雖然即將來臨的春節有助於在一定程度上緩解積壓狀況，但本年度餘下時間內供應情況很可能仍然變化無常，只有到2023年情況才會有所改善。
“我們預計2022年是一個變化無常的一年，雖然情況會有所改善，但我預計市場行情仍然與2021年幾乎相同，甚至可能更具挑戰性，”DHL全球貨運亞太區首席執行官Kelvin Leung說道。
今年年初，預計2022年貿易和經濟增長前景將看好。然而，港口擁堵現象仍然存在，給班輪業務的穩定性造成了很大影響。
《DHL海運市場展望》（2022-2024年）報告提到，承運商的船期可靠性目前處於歷史最低水平，即使是表現最好的承運商也很難達到45％“準時”的水平，表現最差的承運商已經跌破20％大關。
[wysiwyg] => wysiwyg
[outbound_box] => outbound_box
[Ports will remain a bottleneck in the supply chain, with capacity and reliability only likely to stabilize later in this year or next. Ongoing port congestion, and the limited success of efforts to ease bottlenecks, have dampened hopes of a brighter outlook for ocean freight in 2022.
Although the upcoming Chinese New Year may help ease some of the backlog, supply is likely to remain volatile through the remainder of the year, with conditions improving only in 2023.
“We’re expecting 2022 to be volatile, and while there will be improvements, I would expect the market conditions will remain pretty much the same as 2021, if not more challenging,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.
At the turn of the year, prospects for trade and economic growth in 2022 were expected to brighten. However ports remain congested, taking a heavy toll on the reliability of liner services.
DHL’s Ocean Freight Market Outlook 2022-2024 report notes that carrier schedule reliability is now at an all-time low, with even the best performing carriers barely managing 45 percent ‘on-time’ performance and the worst falling below the 20 percent mark.
RELATED ARTICLESDHL Ocean Freight Market Update Outlook 2022-2024Demand remains strong amidst limited capacity, with freight rates looking to stabilize much later in 2024.Covid-19’s long shadow
Covid-19 itself remains a key antagonist. The spread of the highly infectious Omicron variant has led to numerous flights being cancelled due to new travel restrictions that impacted major cargo hubs including Hong Kong.
More damaging for container shipping stakeholders was a spate of Covid-19 cases in the Chinese industrial hub of Ningbo in late December. Ningbo had already suffered a string of partial lockdowns under China’s strict zero-Covid policy during the second half of 2021.
The latest outbreak, in this case of the Delta variant according to various reports, took place at a clothing company in the Beilun District, a significant hub for both manufacturers as well as home to a string of container terminals.
The latest lockdown in Ningbo threatened the region’s ability to keep its manufacturing output at full pelt ahead of Chinese New Year factory closures. It also impacted the efficiency of trucking services and the operation of Ningbo-Zhoushan port, the world’s third largest container hub by volume.
Elsewhere in China, shipping on the Yangtze River, a key artery between industrial conurbations inland and coastal ports, was thrown into disarray at the turn of the year when some 200 vessel pilots were placed in 14-day quarantines after two pilots tested positive for Covid-19 in late 2021.
With so much capacity tied up at ports, the container shipping freight market tightened once again at the turn of the year. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), a bellwether of container freight markets ex-China, broke through the 5,000 mark for the first time in its history. This is a huge annual rise when compared to the 2,783 points recorded on 31 December 2020.
Moving the problem
Atop that, other forces are challenging any quick recovery. Supply chains have also been buffeted by heavy rain fall across South East Asia, with flash flooding in Malaysia resulting in delays costing millions at Port Klang.
Efforts to alleviate bottlenecks have in some cases contributed to the uncertainty. Some carriers have opted to omit some ports but this has had significant consequences for customers shipping via these ports. Multiple port omissions have also made it difficult to measure the reliability of liner services.
Measures have been put in place to alleviate port congestion at the ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles, which includes additional charges for containers that stay beyond a stipulated timeline. This, however, have only served to move vessels to anchorages outside ports or had resulted in vessels slow steaming or being diverted to alternative ports.
RELATED ARTICLESNew high-speed railway puts Laos on track to boost regional tradeThe rail network will place Laos as a land-linked hub, connecting China to more regions with viable alternatives from ocean and air options.Expected recovery to a new normal from 2023
But there are reasons for some cautious optimism. Carriers have been trying to fill gaps in the schedule by organizing extra sailings. Many businesses, on the other hand, have learned to plan their orders as far as possible to secure capacity.
There are hopes that the usual slowdown in manufacturing over Chinese New Year in February may help. “We are hopeful that the reduction in demand will ease the congestion situation at some ports, and help bring the reliability of the carrier schedules to a more normal situation,” said Leung.
But bottlenecks at ports are likely to play a major role in the efficiency and reliability of ocean supply chains for most of 2022. Jefferies analyst Randy Giveans calculated that in November last year, an average of 36.2 percent of total boxship capacity was stuck at ports.
Dominique von Orelli, Global Head, Ocean Freight, DHL Global Forwarding, notes that the supply and demand situation, at least for the first half of the year, will remain similar to last year. ”We are expecting volatility in supply in the first half of 2022 to continue largely along similar lines as 2021,” said von Orelli.
Jefferies’ Giveans also believes efforts to reduce bottlenecks may yield fruit later in the year. “It is likely that freight rates will soften from these peak levels during 2022 as congestion problems ease,” he noted.
RELATED ARTICLESFreight rates remain high but show signs of softeningGlobal recovery is starting, despite China’s power cuts and zero Covid strategy having an impact.However, it will only be when pent-up demand is satisfied – in part by an influx of new capacity – that global GDP growth will settle into a more regular pattern, according to the DHL Ocean Freight Market Outlook 2022-2024 report. The report noted that container vessel order books are at the highest level in 10 years, with the majority of container vessels being built in China. Should container production remain stable, supply growth will overtake demand growth in 2023 as recent orders start to be delivered.
In 2023 and 2024, when the availability of equipment has improved, and global port congestion has eased, freight rates will gradually stabilize. The caveat, however, is that rates will be at far higher levels than pre-Covid days.
In the meantime, customers should work closely with their shipping partners to protect themselves from the worst of the crisis. “To secure ocean freight supply chains in the short- and medium-term, customers are advised to plan ahead with accurate inventory and order forecasts, and consider long-term agreements with carriers,” said von Orelli.] =>
[] =>
[port-congestions-volatile-2022] => port-congestions-volatile-2022
[Monthly ocean freight update] =>
[OFR-market-update-Jan-2022-key-image] => OFR-market-update-Jan-2022-key-image
[Ocean Freight Market Update 2022-2024] => Ocean Freight Market Update 2022-2024
[China-Laos-railway-service-launch-key-image] => China-Laos-railway-service-launch-key-image
[China-Laos railway service launch] => China-Laos railway service launch
[ocean-freight-Nov-2021-update-key-image] => ocean-freight-Nov-2021-update-key-image
[Ocean Freight report Nov 2021 update] => Ocean Freight report Nov 2021 update
[port-congestions-volatile-2022-single-column] => port-congestions-volatile-2022-single-column
[port-congestions-volatile-2022-key-image] => port-congestions-volatile-2022-key-image
)
[$value] => Covid-19’s long shadow
Covid-19 itself remains a key antagonist. The spread of the highly infectious Omicron variant has led to numerous flights being cancelled due to new travel restrictions that impacted major cargo hubs including Hong Kong.
More damaging for container shipping stakeholders was a spate of Covid-19 cases in the Chinese industrial hub of Ningbo in late December. Ningbo had already suffered a string of partial lockdowns under China’s strict zero-Covid policy during the second half of 2021.
The latest outbreak, in this case of the Delta variant according to various reports, took place at a clothing company in the Beilun District, a significant hub for both manufacturers as well as home to a string of container terminals.
The latest lockdown in Ningbo threatened the region’s ability to keep its manufacturing output at full pelt ahead of Chinese New Year factory closures. It also impacted the efficiency of trucking services and the operation of Ningbo-Zhoushan port, the world’s third largest container hub by volume.
Elsewhere in China, shipping on the Yangtze River, a key artery between industrial conurbations inland and coastal ports, was thrown into disarray at the turn of the year when some 200 vessel pilots were placed in 14-day quarantines after two pilots tested positive for Covid-19 in late 2021.
With so much capacity tied up at ports, the container shipping freight market tightened once again at the turn of the year. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), a bellwether of container freight markets ex-China, broke through the 5,000 mark for the first time in its history. This is a huge annual rise when compared to the 2,783 points recorded on 31 December 2020.
Moving the problem
Atop that, other forces are challenging any quick recovery. Supply chains have also been buffeted by heavy rain fall across South East Asia, with flash flooding in Malaysia resulting in delays costing millions at Port Klang.
Efforts to alleviate bottlenecks have in some cases contributed to the uncertainty. Some carriers have opted to omit some ports but this has had significant consequences for customers shipping via these ports. Multiple port omissions have also made it difficult to measure the reliability of liner services.
Measures have been put in place to alleviate port congestion at the ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles, which includes additional charges for containers that stay beyond a stipulated timeline. This, however, have only served to move vessels to anchorages outside ports or had resulted in vessels slow steaming or being diverted to alternative ports.
)
Array
(
[derick] => Array
(
[Port congestions set the tone for a volatile 2022] => Port congestions set the tone for a volatile 2022
[Ports will remain a bottleneck in the supply chain, with capacity and reliability only likely to stabilize later in this year or next.] => 港口仍將成為供應鏈中的瓶頸，運力和可靠性只有到今年下半年或者明年才有可能穩定下來。
[[]] =>
[Covid-19’s long shadow
Covid-19 itself remains a key antagonist. The spread of the highly infectious Omicron variant has led to numerous flights being cancelled due to new travel restrictions that impacted major cargo hubs including Hong Kong.
More damaging for container shipping stakeholders was a spate of Covid-19 cases in the Chinese industrial hub of Ningbo in late December. Ningbo had already suffered a string of partial lockdowns under China’s strict zero-Covid policy during the second half of 2021.
The latest outbreak, in this case of the Delta variant according to various reports, took place at a clothing company in the Beilun District, a significant hub for both manufacturers as well as home to a string of container terminals.
The latest lockdown in Ningbo threatened the region’s ability to keep its manufacturing output at full pelt ahead of Chinese New Year factory closures. It also impacted the efficiency of trucking services and the operation of Ningbo-Zhoushan port, the world’s third largest container hub by volume.
Elsewhere in China, shipping on the Yangtze River, a key artery between industrial conurbations inland and coastal ports, was thrown into disarray at the turn of the year when some 200 vessel pilots were placed in 14-day quarantines after two pilots tested positive for Covid-19 in late 2021.
With so much capacity tied up at ports, the container shipping freight market tightened once again at the turn of the year. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), a bellwether of container freight markets ex-China, broke through the 5,000 mark for the first time in its history. This is a huge annual rise when compared to the 2,783 points recorded on 31 December 2020.
Moving the problem
Atop that, other forces are challenging any quick recovery. Supply chains have also been buffeted by heavy rain fall across South East Asia, with flash flooding in Malaysia resulting in delays costing millions at Port Klang.
Efforts to alleviate bottlenecks have in some cases contributed to the uncertainty. Some carriers have opted to omit some ports but this has had significant consequences for customers shipping via these ports. Multiple port omissions have also made it difficult to measure the reliability of liner services.
Measures have been put in place to alleviate port congestion at the ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles, which includes additional charges for containers that stay beyond a stipulated timeline. This, however, have only served to move vessels to anchorages outside ports or had resulted in vessels slow steaming or being diverted to alternative ports.] =>
除此之外，其他因素也給快速恢復帶來了挑戰。供應鏈還受到東南亞暴雨的衝擊，其中馬來西亞的山洪爆發造成的延誤讓巴生港蒙受數百萬美元的損失。
在某些情形下，緩解瓶頸的工作增加了不確定性。某些承運商選擇跳港，但給通過這些港口運輸的客戶造成了嚴重後果。多次跳港的情況也使得難以衡量班輪服務的可靠性。
長灘港和洛杉磯港都已採取措施緩解港口擁堵，其中包括對逗留超過規定時間的集裝箱收取額外費用。然而，這樣做只是將船隻轉移到港口外的錨地，或者導致船隻減速航行或者轉道備選港口。
[Expected recovery to a new normal from 2023
But there are reasons for some cautious optimism. Carriers have been trying to fill gaps in the schedule by organizing extra sailings. Many businesses, on the other hand, have learned to plan their orders as far as possible to secure capacity.
There are hopes that the usual slowdown in manufacturing over Chinese New Year in February may help. “We are hopeful that the reduction in demand will ease the congestion situation at some ports, and help bring the reliability of the carrier schedules to a more normal situation,” said Leung.
But bottlenecks at ports are likely to play a major role in the efficiency and reliability of ocean supply chains for most of 2022. Jefferies analyst Randy Giveans calculated that in November last year, an average of 36.2 percent of total boxship capacity was stuck at ports.
Dominique von Orelli, Global Head, Ocean Freight, DHL Global Forwarding, notes that the supply and demand situation, at least for the first half of the year, will remain similar to last year. ”We are expecting volatility in supply in the first half of 2022 to continue largely along similar lines as 2021,” said von Orelli.
Jefferies’ Giveans also believes efforts to reduce bottlenecks may yield fruit later in the year. “It is likely that freight rates will soften from these peak levels during 2022 as congestion problems ease,” he noted.] =>
預計從2023開始恢復新常態
然而，保持一定程度的謹慎樂觀是有原因的。承運商一直嘗試通過增加航班來填補空缺。另一方面，不少企業學會了盡可能地對訂單進行規劃以保障運力。
今年春節期間通常的製造業減速有希望緩解這個狀況。 “我們希望需求減少可以緩解某些港口的擁堵狀況，而且讓承運商的船期可靠性達到較為正常的水平，”Leung說道。
然而，在2022年大部分時間裡，港口瓶頸很可能在海運供應鏈的效率和可靠性方面起到舉足輕重的作用。根據傑富瑞集團分析師Randy Giveans的計算，去年11月，平均有36.2％的集裝箱船運力擁堵在港口。
DHL全球貨運海運部全球主管Dominique von Orelli稱，至少在今年上半年內，供需狀況仍然與去年相似。 “我們預計2022年上半年供應狀況的易變性仍將基本沿著2021年相似的軌跡發展，”von Orelli說道。
傑富瑞集團Giveans還認為緩解瓶頸所做的努力可能會在今年晚些時候取得成果。 “2022年內，隨著擁堵問題的緩解，運價很可能會從峰值水平回落，”他說道。
[However, it will only be when pent-up demand is satisfied – in part by an influx of new capacity – that global GDP growth will settle into a more regular pattern, according to the DHL Ocean Freight Market Outlook 2022-2024 report. The report noted that container vessel order books are at the highest level in 10 years, with the majority of container vessels being built in China. Should container production remain stable, supply growth will overtake demand growth in 2023 as recent orders start to be delivered.
In 2023 and 2024, when the availability of equipment has improved, and global port congestion has eased, freight rates will gradually stabilize. The caveat, however, is that rates will be at far higher levels than pre-Covid days.
In the meantime, customers should work closely with their shipping partners to protect themselves from the worst of the crisis. "To secure ocean freight supply chains in the short- and medium-term, customers are advised to plan ahead with accurate inventory and order forecasts, and consider long-term agreements with carriers,” said von Orelli.] => 然而，《DHL海運市場展望》（2022-2024年）報告稱，只有等積壓需求得到滿足――部分通過投入新運力，全球GDP增長才會進入較為正常的模式。報告提到，集裝箱船訂單數量達到了過去十年內的最高水平，其中大多數集裝箱船在中國建造。如果集裝箱產量保持穩定，那麼隨著最近訂單開始交付，2023年供應增長速度將超過需求增長速度。
2023年和2024年，隨著設備可用性的提高以及全球港口擁堵狀況的緩解，運價將逐漸穩定。然而，需要注意的是運價將遠高於疫情爆發前的水平。
與此同時，客戶應當與運輸合作夥伴密切合作，保護自身在危機最嚴重的時期不受影響。 “為了在短期和中期內保障海運供應鏈，建議客戶根據準確的庫存和訂單預測提前進行規劃，並且考慮與承運商簽訂長期協議，”von Orelli說道。
[Ongoing port congestion, and the limited success of efforts to ease bottlenecks, have dampened hopes of a brighter outlook for ocean freight in 2022.
Although the upcoming Chinese New Year may help ease some of the backlog, supply is likely to remain volatile through the remainder of the year, with conditions improving only in 2023.
“We’re expecting 2022 to be volatile, and while there will be improvements, I would expect the market conditions will remain pretty much the same as 2021, if not more challenging,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.
At the turn of the year, prospects for trade and economic growth in 2022 were expected to brighten. However ports remain congested, taking a heavy toll on the reliability of liner services.
DHL’s Ocean Freight Market Outlook 2022-2024 report notes that carrier schedule reliability is now at an all-time low, with even the best performing carriers barely managing 45 percent ‘on-time’ performance and the worst falling below the 20 percent mark.] => 港口擁堵仍在繼續，而且緩解瓶頸的努力收效甚微，給2022年海洋貨運的前景蒙上了一層陰影。
雖然即將來臨的春節有助於在一定程度上緩解積壓狀況，但本年度餘下時間內供應情況很可能仍然變化無常，只有到2023年情況才會有所改善。
“我們預計2022年是一個變化無常的一年，雖然情況會有所改善，但我預計市場行情仍然與2021年幾乎相同，甚至可能更具挑戰性，”DHL全球貨運亞太區首席執行官Kelvin Leung說道。
今年年初，預計2022年貿易和經濟增長前景將看好。然而，港口擁堵現象仍然存在，給班輪業務的穩定性造成了很大影響。
《DHL海運市場展望》（2022-2024年）報告提到，承運商的船期可靠性目前處於歷史最低水平，即使是表現最好的承運商也很難達到45％“準時”的水平，表現最差的承運商已經跌破20％大關。
[wysiwyg] => wysiwyg
[outbound_box] => outbound_box
[Ports will remain a bottleneck in the supply chain, with capacity and reliability only likely to stabilize later in this year or next. Ongoing port congestion, and the limited success of efforts to ease bottlenecks, have dampened hopes of a brighter outlook for ocean freight in 2022.
Although the upcoming Chinese New Year may help ease some of the backlog, supply is likely to remain volatile through the remainder of the year, with conditions improving only in 2023.
“We’re expecting 2022 to be volatile, and while there will be improvements, I would expect the market conditions will remain pretty much the same as 2021, if not more challenging,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.
At the turn of the year, prospects for trade and economic growth in 2022 were expected to brighten. However ports remain congested, taking a heavy toll on the reliability of liner services.
DHL’s Ocean Freight Market Outlook 2022-2024 report notes that carrier schedule reliability is now at an all-time low, with even the best performing carriers barely managing 45 percent ‘on-time’ performance and the worst falling below the 20 percent mark.
RELATED ARTICLESDHL Ocean Freight Market Update Outlook 2022-2024Demand remains strong amidst limited capacity, with freight rates looking to stabilize much later in 2024.Covid-19’s long shadow
Covid-19 itself remains a key antagonist. The spread of the highly infectious Omicron variant has led to numerous flights being cancelled due to new travel restrictions that impacted major cargo hubs including Hong Kong.
More damaging for container shipping stakeholders was a spate of Covid-19 cases in the Chinese industrial hub of Ningbo in late December. Ningbo had already suffered a string of partial lockdowns under China’s strict zero-Covid policy during the second half of 2021.
The latest outbreak, in this case of the Delta variant according to various reports, took place at a clothing company in the Beilun District, a significant hub for both manufacturers as well as home to a string of container terminals.
The latest lockdown in Ningbo threatened the region’s ability to keep its manufacturing output at full pelt ahead of Chinese New Year factory closures. It also impacted the efficiency of trucking services and the operation of Ningbo-Zhoushan port, the world’s third largest container hub by volume.
Elsewhere in China, shipping on the Yangtze River, a key artery between industrial conurbations inland and coastal ports, was thrown into disarray at the turn of the year when some 200 vessel pilots were placed in 14-day quarantines after two pilots tested positive for Covid-19 in late 2021.
With so much capacity tied up at ports, the container shipping freight market tightened once again at the turn of the year. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), a bellwether of container freight markets ex-China, broke through the 5,000 mark for the first time in its history. This is a huge annual rise when compared to the 2,783 points recorded on 31 December 2020.
Moving the problem
Atop that, other forces are challenging any quick recovery. Supply chains have also been buffeted by heavy rain fall across South East Asia, with flash flooding in Malaysia resulting in delays costing millions at Port Klang.
Efforts to alleviate bottlenecks have in some cases contributed to the uncertainty. Some carriers have opted to omit some ports but this has had significant consequences for customers shipping via these ports. Multiple port omissions have also made it difficult to measure the reliability of liner services.
Measures have been put in place to alleviate port congestion at the ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles, which includes additional charges for containers that stay beyond a stipulated timeline. This, however, have only served to move vessels to anchorages outside ports or had resulted in vessels slow steaming or being diverted to alternative ports.
RELATED ARTICLESNew high-speed railway puts Laos on track to boost regional tradeThe rail network will place Laos as a land-linked hub, connecting China to more regions with viable alternatives from ocean and air options.Expected recovery to a new normal from 2023
But there are reasons for some cautious optimism. Carriers have been trying to fill gaps in the schedule by organizing extra sailings. Many businesses, on the other hand, have learned to plan their orders as far as possible to secure capacity.
There are hopes that the usual slowdown in manufacturing over Chinese New Year in February may help. “We are hopeful that the reduction in demand will ease the congestion situation at some ports, and help bring the reliability of the carrier schedules to a more normal situation,” said Leung.
But bottlenecks at ports are likely to play a major role in the efficiency and reliability of ocean supply chains for most of 2022. Jefferies analyst Randy Giveans calculated that in November last year, an average of 36.2 percent of total boxship capacity was stuck at ports.
Dominique von Orelli, Global Head, Ocean Freight, DHL Global Forwarding, notes that the supply and demand situation, at least for the first half of the year, will remain similar to last year. ”We are expecting volatility in supply in the first half of 2022 to continue largely along similar lines as 2021,” said von Orelli.
Jefferies’ Giveans also believes efforts to reduce bottlenecks may yield fruit later in the year. “It is likely that freight rates will soften from these peak levels during 2022 as congestion problems ease,” he noted.
RELATED ARTICLESFreight rates remain high but show signs of softeningGlobal recovery is starting, despite China’s power cuts and zero Covid strategy having an impact.However, it will only be when pent-up demand is satisfied – in part by an influx of new capacity – that global GDP growth will settle into a more regular pattern, according to the DHL Ocean Freight Market Outlook 2022-2024 report. The report noted that container vessel order books are at the highest level in 10 years, with the majority of container vessels being built in China. Should container production remain stable, supply growth will overtake demand growth in 2023 as recent orders start to be delivered.
In 2023 and 2024, when the availability of equipment has improved, and global port congestion has eased, freight rates will gradually stabilize. The caveat, however, is that rates will be at far higher levels than pre-Covid days.
In the meantime, customers should work closely with their shipping partners to protect themselves from the worst of the crisis. “To secure ocean freight supply chains in the short- and medium-term, customers are advised to plan ahead with accurate inventory and order forecasts, and consider long-term agreements with carriers,” said von Orelli.] =>
[] =>
[port-congestions-volatile-2022] => port-congestions-volatile-2022
[Monthly ocean freight update] =>
[OFR-market-update-Jan-2022-key-image] => OFR-market-update-Jan-2022-key-image
[Ocean Freight Market Update 2022-2024] => Ocean Freight Market Update 2022-2024
[China-Laos-railway-service-launch-key-image] => China-Laos-railway-service-launch-key-image
[China-Laos railway service launch] => China-Laos railway service launch
[ocean-freight-Nov-2021-update-key-image] => ocean-freight-Nov-2021-update-key-image
[Ocean Freight report Nov 2021 update] => Ocean Freight report Nov 2021 update
[port-congestions-volatile-2022-single-column] => port-congestions-volatile-2022-single-column
[port-congestions-volatile-2022-key-image] => port-congestions-volatile-2022-key-image
)
[$value] => Expected recovery to a new normal from 2023
But there are reasons for some cautious optimism. Carriers have been trying to fill gaps in the schedule by organizing extra sailings. Many businesses, on the other hand, have learned to plan their orders as far as possible to secure capacity.
There are hopes that the usual slowdown in manufacturing over Chinese New Year in February may help. “We are hopeful that the reduction in demand will ease the congestion situation at some ports, and help bring the reliability of the carrier schedules to a more normal situation,” said Leung.
But bottlenecks at ports are likely to play a major role in the efficiency and reliability of ocean supply chains for most of 2022. Jefferies analyst Randy Giveans calculated that in November last year, an average of 36.2 percent of total boxship capacity was stuck at ports.
Dominique von Orelli, Global Head, Ocean Freight, DHL Global Forwarding, notes that the supply and demand situation, at least for the first half of the year, will remain similar to last year. ”We are expecting volatility in supply in the first half of 2022 to continue largely along similar lines as 2021,” said von Orelli.
Jefferies’ Giveans also believes efforts to reduce bottlenecks may yield fruit later in the year. “It is likely that freight rates will soften from these peak levels during 2022 as congestion problems ease,” he noted.
)
Array
(
[derick] => Array
(
[Port congestions set the tone for a volatile 2022] => Port congestions set the tone for a volatile 2022
[Ports will remain a bottleneck in the supply chain, with capacity and reliability only likely to stabilize later in this year or next.] => 港口仍將成為供應鏈中的瓶頸，運力和可靠性只有到今年下半年或者明年才有可能穩定下來。
[[]] =>
[Covid-19’s long shadow
Covid-19 itself remains a key antagonist. The spread of the highly infectious Omicron variant has led to numerous flights being cancelled due to new travel restrictions that impacted major cargo hubs including Hong Kong.
More damaging for container shipping stakeholders was a spate of Covid-19 cases in the Chinese industrial hub of Ningbo in late December. Ningbo had already suffered a string of partial lockdowns under China’s strict zero-Covid policy during the second half of 2021.
The latest outbreak, in this case of the Delta variant according to various reports, took place at a clothing company in the Beilun District, a significant hub for both manufacturers as well as home to a string of container terminals.
The latest lockdown in Ningbo threatened the region’s ability to keep its manufacturing output at full pelt ahead of Chinese New Year factory closures. It also impacted the efficiency of trucking services and the operation of Ningbo-Zhoushan port, the world’s third largest container hub by volume.
Elsewhere in China, shipping on the Yangtze River, a key artery between industrial conurbations inland and coastal ports, was thrown into disarray at the turn of the year when some 200 vessel pilots were placed in 14-day quarantines after two pilots tested positive for Covid-19 in late 2021.
With so much capacity tied up at ports, the container shipping freight market tightened once again at the turn of the year. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), a bellwether of container freight markets ex-China, broke through the 5,000 mark for the first time in its history. This is a huge annual rise when compared to the 2,783 points recorded on 31 December 2020.
Moving the problem
Atop that, other forces are challenging any quick recovery. Supply chains have also been buffeted by heavy rain fall across South East Asia, with flash flooding in Malaysia resulting in delays costing millions at Port Klang.
Efforts to alleviate bottlenecks have in some cases contributed to the uncertainty. Some carriers have opted to omit some ports but this has had significant consequences for customers shipping via these ports. Multiple port omissions have also made it difficult to measure the reliability of liner services.
Measures have been put in place to alleviate port congestion at the ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles, which includes additional charges for containers that stay beyond a stipulated timeline. This, however, have only served to move vessels to anchorages outside ports or had resulted in vessels slow steaming or being diverted to alternative ports.] =>
除此之外，其他因素也給快速恢復帶來了挑戰。供應鏈還受到東南亞暴雨的衝擊，其中馬來西亞的山洪爆發造成的延誤讓巴生港蒙受數百萬美元的損失。
在某些情形下，緩解瓶頸的工作增加了不確定性。某些承運商選擇跳港，但給通過這些港口運輸的客戶造成了嚴重後果。多次跳港的情況也使得難以衡量班輪服務的可靠性。
長灘港和洛杉磯港都已採取措施緩解港口擁堵，其中包括對逗留超過規定時間的集裝箱收取額外費用。然而，這樣做只是將船隻轉移到港口外的錨地，或者導致船隻減速航行或者轉道備選港口。
[Expected recovery to a new normal from 2023
But there are reasons for some cautious optimism. Carriers have been trying to fill gaps in the schedule by organizing extra sailings. Many businesses, on the other hand, have learned to plan their orders as far as possible to secure capacity.
There are hopes that the usual slowdown in manufacturing over Chinese New Year in February may help. “We are hopeful that the reduction in demand will ease the congestion situation at some ports, and help bring the reliability of the carrier schedules to a more normal situation,” said Leung.
But bottlenecks at ports are likely to play a major role in the efficiency and reliability of ocean supply chains for most of 2022. Jefferies analyst Randy Giveans calculated that in November last year, an average of 36.2 percent of total boxship capacity was stuck at ports.
Dominique von Orelli, Global Head, Ocean Freight, DHL Global Forwarding, notes that the supply and demand situation, at least for the first half of the year, will remain similar to last year. ”We are expecting volatility in supply in the first half of 2022 to continue largely along similar lines as 2021,” said von Orelli.
Jefferies’ Giveans also believes efforts to reduce bottlenecks may yield fruit later in the year. “It is likely that freight rates will soften from these peak levels during 2022 as congestion problems ease,” he noted.] =>
預計從2023開始恢復新常態
然而，保持一定程度的謹慎樂觀是有原因的。承運商一直嘗試通過增加航班來填補空缺。另一方面，不少企業學會了盡可能地對訂單進行規劃以保障運力。
今年春節期間通常的製造業減速有希望緩解這個狀況。 “我們希望需求減少可以緩解某些港口的擁堵狀況，而且讓承運商的船期可靠性達到較為正常的水平，”Leung說道。
然而，在2022年大部分時間裡，港口瓶頸很可能在海運供應鏈的效率和可靠性方面起到舉足輕重的作用。根據傑富瑞集團分析師Randy Giveans的計算，去年11月，平均有36.2％的集裝箱船運力擁堵在港口。
DHL全球貨運海運部全球主管Dominique von Orelli稱，至少在今年上半年內，供需狀況仍然與去年相似。 “我們預計2022年上半年供應狀況的易變性仍將基本沿著2021年相似的軌跡發展，”von Orelli說道。
傑富瑞集團Giveans還認為緩解瓶頸所做的努力可能會在今年晚些時候取得成果。 “2022年內，隨著擁堵問題的緩解，運價很可能會從峰值水平回落，”他說道。
[However, it will only be when pent-up demand is satisfied – in part by an influx of new capacity – that global GDP growth will settle into a more regular pattern, according to the DHL Ocean Freight Market Outlook 2022-2024 report. The report noted that container vessel order books are at the highest level in 10 years, with the majority of container vessels being built in China. Should container production remain stable, supply growth will overtake demand growth in 2023 as recent orders start to be delivered.
In 2023 and 2024, when the availability of equipment has improved, and global port congestion has eased, freight rates will gradually stabilize. The caveat, however, is that rates will be at far higher levels than pre-Covid days.
In the meantime, customers should work closely with their shipping partners to protect themselves from the worst of the crisis. "To secure ocean freight supply chains in the short- and medium-term, customers are advised to plan ahead with accurate inventory and order forecasts, and consider long-term agreements with carriers,” said von Orelli.] => 然而，《DHL海運市場展望》（2022-2024年）報告稱，只有等積壓需求得到滿足――部分通過投入新運力，全球GDP增長才會進入較為正常的模式。報告提到，集裝箱船訂單數量達到了過去十年內的最高水平，其中大多數集裝箱船在中國建造。如果集裝箱產量保持穩定，那麼隨著最近訂單開始交付，2023年供應增長速度將超過需求增長速度。
2023年和2024年，隨著設備可用性的提高以及全球港口擁堵狀況的緩解，運價將逐漸穩定。然而，需要注意的是運價將遠高於疫情爆發前的水平。
與此同時，客戶應當與運輸合作夥伴密切合作，保護自身在危機最嚴重的時期不受影響。 “為了在短期和中期內保障海運供應鏈，建議客戶根據準確的庫存和訂單預測提前進行規劃，並且考慮與承運商簽訂長期協議，”von Orelli說道。
[Ongoing port congestion, and the limited success of efforts to ease bottlenecks, have dampened hopes of a brighter outlook for ocean freight in 2022.
Although the upcoming Chinese New Year may help ease some of the backlog, supply is likely to remain volatile through the remainder of the year, with conditions improving only in 2023.
“We’re expecting 2022 to be volatile, and while there will be improvements, I would expect the market conditions will remain pretty much the same as 2021, if not more challenging,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.
At the turn of the year, prospects for trade and economic growth in 2022 were expected to brighten. However ports remain congested, taking a heavy toll on the reliability of liner services.
DHL’s Ocean Freight Market Outlook 2022-2024 report notes that carrier schedule reliability is now at an all-time low, with even the best performing carriers barely managing 45 percent ‘on-time’ performance and the worst falling below the 20 percent mark.] => 港口擁堵仍在繼續，而且緩解瓶頸的努力收效甚微，給2022年海洋貨運的前景蒙上了一層陰影。
雖然即將來臨的春節有助於在一定程度上緩解積壓狀況，但本年度餘下時間內供應情況很可能仍然變化無常，只有到2023年情況才會有所改善。
“我們預計2022年是一個變化無常的一年，雖然情況會有所改善，但我預計市場行情仍然與2021年幾乎相同，甚至可能更具挑戰性，”DHL全球貨運亞太區首席執行官Kelvin Leung說道。
今年年初，預計2022年貿易和經濟增長前景將看好。然而，港口擁堵現象仍然存在，給班輪業務的穩定性造成了很大影響。
《DHL海運市場展望》（2022-2024年）報告提到，承運商的船期可靠性目前處於歷史最低水平，即使是表現最好的承運商也很難達到45％“準時”的水平，表現最差的承運商已經跌破20％大關。
[wysiwyg] => wysiwyg
[outbound_box] => outbound_box
[Ports will remain a bottleneck in the supply chain, with capacity and reliability only likely to stabilize later in this year or next. Ongoing port congestion, and the limited success of efforts to ease bottlenecks, have dampened hopes of a brighter outlook for ocean freight in 2022.
Although the upcoming Chinese New Year may help ease some of the backlog, supply is likely to remain volatile through the remainder of the year, with conditions improving only in 2023.
“We’re expecting 2022 to be volatile, and while there will be improvements, I would expect the market conditions will remain pretty much the same as 2021, if not more challenging,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.
At the turn of the year, prospects for trade and economic growth in 2022 were expected to brighten. However ports remain congested, taking a heavy toll on the reliability of liner services.
DHL’s Ocean Freight Market Outlook 2022-2024 report notes that carrier schedule reliability is now at an all-time low, with even the best performing carriers barely managing 45 percent ‘on-time’ performance and the worst falling below the 20 percent mark.
RELATED ARTICLESDHL Ocean Freight Market Update Outlook 2022-2024Demand remains strong amidst limited capacity, with freight rates looking to stabilize much later in 2024.Covid-19’s long shadow
Covid-19 itself remains a key antagonist. The spread of the highly infectious Omicron variant has led to numerous flights being cancelled due to new travel restrictions that impacted major cargo hubs including Hong Kong.
More damaging for container shipping stakeholders was a spate of Covid-19 cases in the Chinese industrial hub of Ningbo in late December. Ningbo had already suffered a string of partial lockdowns under China’s strict zero-Covid policy during the second half of 2021.
The latest outbreak, in this case of the Delta variant according to various reports, took place at a clothing company in the Beilun District, a significant hub for both manufacturers as well as home to a string of container terminals.
The latest lockdown in Ningbo threatened the region’s ability to keep its manufacturing output at full pelt ahead of Chinese New Year factory closures. It also impacted the efficiency of trucking services and the operation of Ningbo-Zhoushan port, the world’s third largest container hub by volume.
Elsewhere in China, shipping on the Yangtze River, a key artery between industrial conurbations inland and coastal ports, was thrown into disarray at the turn of the year when some 200 vessel pilots were placed in 14-day quarantines after two pilots tested positive for Covid-19 in late 2021.
With so much capacity tied up at ports, the container shipping freight market tightened once again at the turn of the year. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), a bellwether of container freight markets ex-China, broke through the 5,000 mark for the first time in its history. This is a huge annual rise when compared to the 2,783 points recorded on 31 December 2020.
Moving the problem
Atop that, other forces are challenging any quick recovery. Supply chains have also been buffeted by heavy rain fall across South East Asia, with flash flooding in Malaysia resulting in delays costing millions at Port Klang.
Efforts to alleviate bottlenecks have in some cases contributed to the uncertainty. Some carriers have opted to omit some ports but this has had significant consequences for customers shipping via these ports. Multiple port omissions have also made it difficult to measure the reliability of liner services.
Measures have been put in place to alleviate port congestion at the ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles, which includes additional charges for containers that stay beyond a stipulated timeline. This, however, have only served to move vessels to anchorages outside ports or had resulted in vessels slow steaming or being diverted to alternative ports.
RELATED ARTICLESNew high-speed railway puts Laos on track to boost regional tradeThe rail network will place Laos as a land-linked hub, connecting China to more regions with viable alternatives from ocean and air options.Expected recovery to a new normal from 2023
But there are reasons for some cautious optimism. Carriers have been trying to fill gaps in the schedule by organizing extra sailings. Many businesses, on the other hand, have learned to plan their orders as far as possible to secure capacity.
There are hopes that the usual slowdown in manufacturing over Chinese New Year in February may help. “We are hopeful that the reduction in demand will ease the congestion situation at some ports, and help bring the reliability of the carrier schedules to a more normal situation,” said Leung.
But bottlenecks at ports are likely to play a major role in the efficiency and reliability of ocean supply chains for most of 2022. Jefferies analyst Randy Giveans calculated that in November last year, an average of 36.2 percent of total boxship capacity was stuck at ports.
Dominique von Orelli, Global Head, Ocean Freight, DHL Global Forwarding, notes that the supply and demand situation, at least for the first half of the year, will remain similar to last year. ”We are expecting volatility in supply in the first half of 2022 to continue largely along similar lines as 2021,” said von Orelli.
Jefferies’ Giveans also believes efforts to reduce bottlenecks may yield fruit later in the year. “It is likely that freight rates will soften from these peak levels during 2022 as congestion problems ease,” he noted.
RELATED ARTICLESFreight rates remain high but show signs of softeningGlobal recovery is starting, despite China’s power cuts and zero Covid strategy having an impact.However, it will only be when pent-up demand is satisfied – in part by an influx of new capacity – that global GDP growth will settle into a more regular pattern, according to the DHL Ocean Freight Market Outlook 2022-2024 report. The report noted that container vessel order books are at the highest level in 10 years, with the majority of container vessels being built in China. Should container production remain stable, supply growth will overtake demand growth in 2023 as recent orders start to be delivered.
In 2023 and 2024, when the availability of equipment has improved, and global port congestion has eased, freight rates will gradually stabilize. The caveat, however, is that rates will be at far higher levels than pre-Covid days.
In the meantime, customers should work closely with their shipping partners to protect themselves from the worst of the crisis. “To secure ocean freight supply chains in the short- and medium-term, customers are advised to plan ahead with accurate inventory and order forecasts, and consider long-term agreements with carriers,” said von Orelli.] =>
[] =>
[port-congestions-volatile-2022] => port-congestions-volatile-2022
[Monthly ocean freight update] =>
[OFR-market-update-Jan-2022-key-image] => OFR-market-update-Jan-2022-key-image
[Ocean Freight Market Update 2022-2024] => Ocean Freight Market Update 2022-2024
[China-Laos-railway-service-launch-key-image] => China-Laos-railway-service-launch-key-image
[China-Laos railway service launch] => China-Laos railway service launch
[ocean-freight-Nov-2021-update-key-image] => ocean-freight-Nov-2021-update-key-image
[Ocean Freight report Nov 2021 update] => Ocean Freight report Nov 2021 update
[port-congestions-volatile-2022-single-column] => port-congestions-volatile-2022-single-column
[port-congestions-volatile-2022-key-image] => port-congestions-volatile-2022-key-image
)
[$value] => However, it will only be when pent-up demand is satisfied – in part by an influx of new capacity – that global GDP growth will settle into a more regular pattern, according to the DHL Ocean Freight Market Outlook 2022-2024 report. The report noted that container vessel order books are at the highest level in 10 years, with the majority of container vessels being built in China. Should container production remain stable, supply growth will overtake demand growth in 2023 as recent orders start to be delivered.
In 2023 and 2024, when the availability of equipment has improved, and global port congestion has eased, freight rates will gradually stabilize. The caveat, however, is that rates will be at far higher levels than pre-Covid days.
In the meantime, customers should work closely with their shipping partners to protect themselves from the worst of the crisis. "To secure ocean freight supply chains in the short- and medium-term, customers are advised to plan ahead with accurate inventory and order forecasts, and consider long-term agreements with carriers,” said von Orelli.
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繁體中文（香港）