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尽管得到片刻喘息,旺季来临前仍须保持谨慎

随着疫情封锁期间需求量减少,空运运力回升,即将到来的旺季和经济前景将面临更多的不确定性。
Adopt cautious approach ahead of peak season despite brief respite Meta
2022 年 7月 22 日 •

航空货运市场继续疲软,表现为运力增强但需求低迷,但即使腹舱运力已经恢复,总体状况仍没有发生太大变化。

DGF空运部全球主管Thomas Mack预计今年晚些时候航空货运市场将发生紧缩,并敦促业界随着旺季的临近要保持谨慎。

“今年6月和7月,全世界获得了一些喘息的空间,而我们预计今年旺季期间需求量也不会激增,”他说,还提到DHL的《7月航空货运行业状况报告》预测未来几个月内各贸易航线的需求量将持续呈现疲软态势,尤其是从亚洲到美国和欧洲的航线。

如果今年晚些时候经济不利因素能够缓解,那么仍有充足的市场回升空间――而且是很大的空间。

CLIVE数据服务公司称,由于俄乌战争、通胀率高涨、股市下跌和中国新冠肺炎疫情限制措施影响了企业信心和运输水平,今年5月航空货运市场总容量同比下降了8%。6月航空货运市场总容量的发展轨迹与之类似,同比下降了8%,与2019年6月相比下降了7%。

亚太航空公司协会总干事Subhas Menon先生称,经过2021年的增长之后,航空货运需求现在面临更多挑战,其中“由于全球经济前景越来越不明朗,出口订单在企业信心水平下降的驱动下面临下行压力”。

DGF亚太区首席执行官Kelvin Leung指出,除中国持续的新冠肺炎疫情限制措施外,通胀的压力也让业界谨慎看待2022年下半年的市场前景。“欧洲能源危机和劳动力短缺等持续性问题将继续对供应链造成影响,给未来几个月带来了很大的不确定性,”他补充道。

运力增加

值得乐观的是,随着腹舱空间回归市场――虽然运力仍低于疫情前水平,货运选择在增多。2022年6月可用运力同比增长了6%。这是因为随着世界各地解除出行限制,更多的夏季客运航班进入市场。然而,总运力仍比2019年6月低11%。

根据《7月DHL航空货运市场最新消息》,虽然7月总运力同比增长18%,但客运运力与疫情前的2019年7月相比低了近19%。

脆弱的平衡

CLIVE称,今年6月,运力增加和经济状况的恶化压低了运费,尤其是北大西洋地区的费率在过去三个月内下降了30%。《7月DHL航空货运市场最新消息》也提到,今年6月的总体货物空运费仍比2019年6月高出120%,比2021年6月高出23%。

CLIVE公司创始人、Xeneta首席空运官Niall van de Wouw说道,虽然今年夏天运力有所提高,但疲软的大西洋市场甚至可能给从亚洲到美国和欧洲的航线造成更大的影响,因为如果承运商将运力从大西洋航线转移出来,那么从亚洲到美国和欧洲航线上的航班就会“相对饱和”。

“承运商会将他们的货机部署到亚太地区、非洲或南美洲的其他市场吗?可以看到市场上一些货机已经经历了重新部署,”van de Wouw说道。

“但即使是在跨大西洋贸易路线上仍然存在舱位短缺的情况。而从全球来看,主舱运力需求仍然较为旺盛,”他补充道。

费率为何下降

Stifel公司全球物流和未来出行股权研究部主管和高级分析师Bruce Chan在提交给波罗的海交易所的一份报告中承认,Stifel曾预测运费将在6月上涨。在解释费率为何下降时,他提到了四个因素。

首先,本月燃油价格稳步下降,削弱了基本费率的上涨势头。

其次,第三季度一般是第二慢的航空货运季节,“在节假日高峰来临前,我们正在进入正常的夏末平静期”,因此费率下降在一定程度上可能是季节性的。

“第三个可能的原因是,中国解除封控后制造业恢复产能的速度比我们预期的更缓慢,之前如此,之后一段时间也将如此,”Chan说道。

最后,Chan认为,也存在从长期来看需求开始放缓的可能性。“我们看到任何迹象暗示经济已经开始衰退了吗?”他补充道。“在我们看来,航空货运数量和空运费很可能是一个先导指标,但我们没有明确的证据来支持这个论点,”Chan说道。

例如,2022年第一季度美国年化GDP下降了1.6%,但失业率和绝对消费支出数据较为坚挺,而且美国存货销售比仍然接近历史最低水平。

“我们没有也不能低估最后一种情形的可能性。而且,虽然我们预计2023年的某个时候会发生更大范围的经济放缓,但我们认为目前影响费率的因素是短期性的,”Chan补充道。

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            [seo_title] => 尽管得到片刻喘息,旺季来临前仍须保持谨慎
            [introduction_paragraph] => 随着疫情封锁期间需求量减少,空运运力回升,即将到来的旺季和经济前景将面临更多的不确定性。
            [excerpt] => 随着疫情封锁期间需求量减少,空运运力回升,即将到来的旺季和经济前景将面临更多的不确定性。
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航空货运市场继续疲软,表现为运力增强但需求低迷,但即使腹舱运力已经恢复,总体状况仍没有发生太大变化。

DGF空运部全球主管Thomas Mack预计今年晚些时候航空货运市场将发生紧缩,并敦促业界随着旺季的临近要保持谨慎。

“今年6月和7月,全世界获得了一些喘息的空间,而我们预计今年旺季期间需求量也不会激增,”他说,还提到DHL的《7月航空货运行业状况报告》预测未来几个月内各贸易航线的需求量将持续呈现疲软态势,尤其是从亚洲到美国和欧洲的航线。

如果今年晚些时候经济不利因素能够缓解,那么仍有充足的市场回升空间――而且是很大的空间。

CLIVE数据服务公司称,由于俄乌战争、通胀率高涨、股市下跌和中国新冠肺炎疫情限制措施影响了企业信心和运输水平,今年5月航空货运市场总容量同比下降了8%。6月航空货运市场总容量的发展轨迹与之类似,同比下降了8%,与2019年6月相比下降了7%。

亚太航空公司协会总干事Subhas Menon先生称,经过2021年的增长之后,航空货运需求现在面临更多挑战,其中“由于全球经济前景越来越不明朗,出口订单在企业信心水平下降的驱动下面临下行压力”。

DGF亚太区首席执行官Kelvin Leung指出,除中国持续的新冠肺炎疫情限制措施外,通胀的压力也让业界谨慎看待2022年下半年的市场前景。“欧洲能源危机和劳动力短缺等持续性问题将继续对供应链造成影响,给未来几个月带来了很大的不确定性,”他补充道。

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尽管第二季度经济放缓导致费率疲软,不确定因素仍在大举逼近。

随着集装箱运输的旺季即将来临,有两大趋势很可能决定未来几周和几个月内的市场状况。

首先,就东西方主要贸易航线通常运输的货物的需求而言,随着经济增长放缓、通胀拖累信心和底线以及俄乌战争继续困扰供应链,业内观点一致转向看跌。

其次,即使今年到目前为止运费费率一直在下降,第二季度经济增长也放缓,全球供应链仍处于紧张状态而且容易受进一步干扰的影响。

旺季来临前的未知因素

然而,目前无法确定未来全球经济衰退带来的影响会有多大,以及主要市场开始紧缩时集装箱运输需求可能会下降多少。

而且,即使集装箱运输需求显著下降,大多数分析师认为仍需要好几个季度才能使班轮船期回到正轨、消除港口拥塞并让空集装箱回到原位。实际上,即便第二季度需求疲软,改善班轮船期可靠性的进展甚微。

进入第三季度旺季,意味着货运量较第二季度会略微上升――第二季度是集装箱运输的传统淡季,美国和欧洲的港口拥塞现象很可能会进一步恶化,从而不可避免地导致船只运力无法用于满足需求,造成当地设备短缺,而且最有可能的是再次拉高即期运费费率。

“毫无疑问,很多经济指标都在恶化,一些市场有可能逐步走向放缓,但仍不清楚着陆的难度有多大,”DGF亚太区首席执行官Kelvin Leung说道。“可以确定的是,全世界仍有很多货物在运输途中,供应链瓶颈十分明显。

持续的困境

毫无疑问,多个瓶颈继续对海洋供应链的运行效率造成影响,而且今年晚些时候出现更多瓶颈的风险仍然很高。例如,中国严格的新冠疫情防控措施目前已经解除,尤其是上海一带,但无法保证今年晚些时候会不会再次出现多地封锁的情况。

在欧洲,北部枢纽港正在努力运出空箱,而船只周转时间延长了,从而导致运输时间增加。内陆铁路、驳船和公路运营商也在努力解决运力短缺问题。

DHL的《7月海运市场最新消息》指出,欧洲港口拥塞仍然十分严重,导致船期延误以及更多的承运商空船航行。该《最新消息》还强调,设备供应仍然非常紧张,尤其是40英尺高柜。

由于通胀,工会加大罢工力度以谋求更高的报酬,多个主要港口也受到影响。

美国东海岸港口继续承受港口拥塞之苦,因为在美国西海岸港口,随着先前的多年协议在6月底到期,工会代表正在与雇主协商新合同,因此承运商都试图避开美国西海岸港口。

如果谈判不顺利,那么今年晚些时候更多不利因素会显现,而罢工有可能导致29个港口关闭,包括对跨太平洋物流至关重要的洛杉矶港和长岛港

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班轮可靠性失效

所有以上不利因素都自然而然地在承运商船期可靠性方面表现出来。Sea-Intelligence航运咨询公司的最新全球班轮绩效(GLP)报告指出,今年的全球船期可靠性基本延续了2021年的趋势,在一个小范围内波动,但总体水平略低。

2022年5月,船期可靠性环比上升了2.1个百分点,达到36.4%,但同比仍然下降了2.3个百分点。“这意味着2022年前五个月内的水平都略低于2021年的对应月份,”Sea-Intelligence提到。

船只平均延误时间也在5月再次缩短,为6.17天。“目前的延误时间基本低于7天关口,但如果与过往相比每月仍然处于历史高位,只不过差值大幅减小,”该公司称。

马士基公司的船期可靠性为50.3%,是2022年5月可靠性最高的承运商,其次是汉堡南美船务集团,船期可靠性为43.7%。有六家承运商的船期可靠性处于30-40%区间,六家承运商的船期可靠性处于20-30%区间。

经济阴影继续扩大

降低需求是解决供应链问题的最直接方法,从而改善承运商的表现,但对于业内大多数承运商而言是难以下咽的苦果。越来越多的证据表明经济衰退正在发生。

世界银行预测,2022年,全球贸易同比增长速度将下降到4%,而全球发达经济体的经济增长率将从2021年的5.1%下降到2022年的2.6%。对于新兴经济体和发展中经济体,增长率预计将从2021年的6.6%下降到2022年的3.4%。

2022年,美国经济甚至可能发生衰退。6月,美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔指出了衰退的“可能性”,而野村证券的分析师称美国正在“走向虚无”,第四季度“极有可能”发生轻微的衰退。

贸易受到的影响已经开始变得明显。疫情期间,因为服务活动受到限制而且政策支持力度加大,耐用品消费额大幅上升,超出了近期趋势。然而,野村证券称,迅速上升的利率和恶化的经济状况导致耐用品支出回落,而且这个趋势很可能在2022年剩余时间和2023年持续下去。

“尤其是,耐用品消费与住房销售在一定程度上是相互关联的,而最近住房购买力的下降有可能对耐用品消费造成显著影响,”该公司称。

野村证券目前预计,2021年全年和2022年上半年季度环比增幅显著的美国进口额将开始下降,直至2023年第三季度。

在中国,有越来越多的证据表明制造业和新增出口订单正在减少。特别是由于习近平主席实行的严格封控政策,导致世界银行将中国实际GDP增长预测下调到4.3%,而政府设定的目标是5.5%,去年增长率为8.1%。

在欧洲,几乎没有经济好转的迹象,俄乌战争将产生深远的影响。标普全球6月采购经理人指数调查数据表明,第二季度末,由于生产水平在过去两年内首次下降,欧元区制造业经济处于低位。总新增业务量和出口订单总量均下降,而企业信心下滑到过去25个月内的最低水平。

随着需求减少,由于各公司将重点放在未交付订单上,整个疫情期间显著增加的积压工作量也在过去近两年内首次下降。“各公司称,由于物价上涨和经济前景不明朗,客户在支出方面更加谨慎,因此需求开始疲软,”S&P全球市场情报首席商业经济学家Chris Williamson说道。

由于产量和销量低于预期,原料库存和未出售存货均有所增加,Williamson称这种衰退趋势“似乎注定将在未来几个月内增强”。

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接下来会发生什么?

Sea-Intelligence咨询服务-全球供应链副总裁Bjorn Vang Jensen曾经预测,集装箱航线目前的繁荣“很可能将在2023年第三季度前后结束”,除非发生全球经济衰退。然而,他说,即使集装箱市场由于重大经济萎缩发生急剧衰退,承运商也不可能让费率回到注定亏损的水平――尽管运费费率不可避免地会下降。“牛顿第三定律将一如既往地发挥作用,”他说道。

DGF海运部全球主管Dominique von Orelli补充道,“全球经济需要进行一次重大修正,才能完全解决业内集装箱航线船期的可靠性问题。根据目前的预测,这种情况似乎不太可能发生。我预计,到今年第三季度及之后,供应链取得成功和连贯性的关键在于灵活变通。”

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运力增加

值得乐观的是,随着腹舱空间回归市场――虽然运力仍低于疫情前水平,货运选择在增多。2022年6月可用运力同比增长了6%。这是因为随着世界各地解除出行限制,更多的夏季客运航班进入市场。然而,总运力仍比2019年6月低11%。

根据《7月DHL航空货运市场最新消息》,虽然7月总运力同比增长18%,但客运运力与疫情前的2019年7月相比低了近19%。

脆弱的平衡

CLIVE称,今年6月,运力增加和经济状况的恶化压低了运费,尤其是北大西洋地区的费率在过去三个月内下降了30%。《7月DHL航空货运市场最新消息》也提到,今年6月的总体货物空运费仍比2019年6月高出120%,比2021年6月高出23%。

CLIVE公司创始人、Xeneta首席空运官Niall van de Wouw说道,虽然今年夏天运力有所提高,但疲软的大西洋市场甚至可能给从亚洲到美国和欧洲的航线造成更大的影响,因为如果承运商将运力从大西洋航线转移出来,那么从亚洲到美国和欧洲航线上的航班就会“相对饱和”。

“承运商会将他们的货机部署到亚太地区、非洲或南美洲的其他市场吗?可以看到市场上一些货机已经经历了重新部署,”van de Wouw说道。

“但即使是在跨大西洋贸易路线上仍然存在舱位短缺的情况。而从全球来看,主舱运力需求仍然较为旺盛,”他补充道。

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Freight rates are expected to normalize in 2023, but unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels.

The relaxation of most Covid-19 restrictions in Shanghai and many other cities in China during June failed to significantly boost export freight volumes. The anticipated surge of cargo backlogs largely failed to materialize almost immediately after strict lockdowns were lifted.

Even as jet fuel prices remain at highly elevated levels, air freight rates from Shanghai to both Europe and the U.S. edged down throughout June, although they remain far higher than a year earlier.

Aside from weaker than expected exports out of China, another factor explaining weaker rates ex-Asia is that global capacity is gradually creeping upwards. Capacity in June was just 12 percent lower than in June 2019, according to the June DHL Air Freight Market Update.

In Asia, notes the Update, Cathay Pacific has returned to a full freighter schedule into key destinations. Meanwhile, carriers have resumed services from Shanghai and more origins have re-opened with less Covid-19 restrictions.

There is also now some optimism that AirBridgeCargo’s freighter fleet might return to the skies which would further increase the options available to shippers.

A combination of the northern hemisphere summer and removal of Covid-19 travel restrictions around the world have also prompted a sizeable increase in demand for seasonal passenger services. This has added more bellyhold capacity to the global mix as carriers bolster summer schedules.

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Aviation’s hangover

However, the uptick in passenger demand has also unveiled a hangover effect faced by many airlines and airports after two years of lockdowns. Having reduced workforces during the lean years, labor shortages are stymying passenger services, with hundreds of daily flight cancellations in Europe and the U.S. common during June.

Labor shortages are also hampering the free movement of cargo from China into Hong Kong, reports the June DHL Air Freight Market Update.

“There remains inefficiencies in air cargo supply chains linked to labor shortages in multiple jurisdictions,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific. “With Shanghai’s Pudong airport still under a closed-loop arrangement, coupled with the challenges for cross-provincial trucking, the logistics landscape is not normalized yet.”

It should be noted that most carriers have suffered substantial losses over the last two years due to the pandemic, leading to various labour cuts to stay afloat. As carriers now enter a recovery stage, there is a struggle to employ enough people, and also provide security clearance for new employees in time for the summer season.

“We expect many of these blockages to be cleared as the aviation sector returns to a normal footing, and this journey will take a good number of weeks,” added Leung.

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Economic headwinds

On the economic front, there are increasingly worrying indicators, as seen in Chinese manufacturing orders which are reportedly down by as much as 20 to 30 percent.

The World Bank now expects China’s real GDP growth to slow down sharply this year, not least due to “prolonged economic disruption” due to Covid-19 lockdowns. It expects growth this year of 4.3 percent in 2022, 0.8 percent lower than projected in its December outlook and significantly short of the government’s growth GDP forecast of 5.5 percent for 2022.

Rampant inflation is also hitting the growth prospects of key import markets in the U.S. and Europe, resulting in higher product prices and borrowing costs. The U.S. Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell pointed to the “possibility” of a recession, while fears of a major downturn are also growing in Europe.

However, Willie Walsh, Director General  of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), struck a relatively positive note in June despite reporting that air cargo demand fell by 11.2 percent year-on-year in April.

“The combination of the war in Ukraine and Covid-19 lockdowns in China have pushed up energy costs, intensified supply chain disruptions, and fed inflation,” he said. “The operating environment is challenging for all businesses, including air cargo. But with China easing lockdown restrictions, there is cause for some optimism and the supply/demand imbalance is keeping yields high.”

Demand contraction

The latest May data from CLIVE Data services suggested the demand contraction is continuing. It reported that general air cargo market volumes fell 8 percent year-on-year in May as the aviation industry’s stuttering recovery was “compounded again by macroeconomic events which show no sign of abating”.

CLIVE reported that air cargo market performance in May was impacted by “the continuing war in Ukraine, the ‘cost of living crisis’ causing consumers to watch their spend more carefully, stock market declines, higher interest rates, Covid-19 restrictions in China, and more warnings of global recession”.

Niall van de Wouw, founder of CLIVE, said: “We sense an anticipation of a slower summer market, followed by hope for growth in Q3 as is traditionally the case, but the market does not look great right now. There are more clouds on the horizon than there were two months ago.”

One cause for optimism for air cargo volumes is ongoing labour negotiations at the U.S. west coast ports which could further disrupt trans-Pacific supply chains. Van de Wouw describes dockworker negotiations as “another example of an external event that has nothing to do with airfreight that could still have a profound impact on the market”.

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Where next for rates?

“There are signs of freight rates softening in the EURO-ASPA trade lanes, and rates are expected to ease by 2023. Rates, however, are unlikely to return to pre-pandemic days, as demand will continue to grow in the coming months,” noted Leung. He also adds that additional factors, such as the “weakening consumer sentiment, especially in Europe, and the ongoing port union negotiations in the U.S.”, have contributed to the uncertainty.

“Pricing will normalize, especially as we think about the continued recovery of international belly capacity and a robust long-term order pipeline for freighters,” said Bruce Chan, Director & Senior Analyst, Global Logistics & Future Mobility Equity Research at Stifel, in a report for the Baltic Exchange.

“However,” added Chan, “the timeline will likely be protracted and shippers are well-advised, in our view, to manage toward resiliency versus freight spend efficiency, at least for now.”

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费率为何下降

Stifel公司全球物流和未来出行股权研究部主管和高级分析师Bruce Chan在提交给波罗的海交易所的一份报告中承认,Stifel曾预测运费将在6月上涨。在解释费率为何下降时,他提到了四个因素。

首先,本月燃油价格稳步下降,削弱了基本费率的上涨势头。

其次,第三季度一般是第二慢的航空货运季节,“在节假日高峰来临前,我们正在进入正常的夏末平静期”,因此费率下降在一定程度上可能是季节性的。

“第三个可能的原因是,中国解除封控后制造业恢复产能的速度比我们预期的更缓慢,之前如此,之后一段时间也将如此,”Chan说道。

最后,Chan认为,也存在从长期来看需求开始放缓的可能性。“我们看到任何迹象暗示经济已经开始衰退了吗?”他补充道。“在我们看来,航空货运数量和空运费很可能是一个先导指标,但我们没有明确的证据来支持这个论点,”Chan说道。

例如,2022年第一季度美国年化GDP下降了1.6%,但失业率和绝对消费支出数据较为坚挺,而且美国存货销售比仍然接近历史最低水平。

“我们没有也不能低估最后一种情形的可能性。而且,虽然我们预计2023年的某个时候会发生更大范围的经济放缓,但我们认为目前影响费率的因素是短期性的,”Chan补充道。

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            [field_data] => 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
            [field_data_translated] => 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
        )

    [6] => stdClass Object
        (
            [field_data] => 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
            [field_data_translated] => 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
        )

    [7] => stdClass Object
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            [field_data] => <p>While air capacity saw some return with reduced demand from lockdowns, the approaching peak season and economic outlook spell further uncertainty. </p><p>The air cargo market continues to soften on higher capacity and sluggish demand, but the overall picture is very nuanced even as bellyhold capacity is returning to the market.</p>
<p>Thomas Mack, Global Head of Air Freight, DHL Global Forwarding expects air freight markets to tighten later this year, and urges a sense of caution as the peak season approaches.</p>
<p>“The world enjoyed some breathing room during the months of June and July and we do not expect a sudden surge in demand during this year’s peak season too,” he said, noting that <a href="https://lot.dhl.com/dhl-air-freight-state-of-the-industry-july-2022/">DHL’s July Airfreight State of the Industry</a> is forecasting that the softened demand across trade lanes in the coming months, especially out of Asia towards the U.S. and Europe will continue.</p>
<p>There is ample scope for a market upturn later in the year if – and it’s a big if &#8211; economic headwinds ease.</p>
<p>General air cargo market volumes fell eight percent year-over-year in May as war in Ukraine, soaring inflation, stock market declines and Covid-related restrictions in China battered business confidence and shipment levels, according to CLIVE Data Services. June followed a similar trajectory with volumes down eight percent year-on-year and down by seven percent compared to June 2019.</p>
<p>Mr. Subhas Menon, Director General of the Association of Asia Pacific Airlines, said that after a buoyant 2021, air cargo demand was now encountering more challenges, with “export orders facing downward pressures driven by waning business confidence levels amid an increasingly cloudy global economic outlook”.</p>
<p>Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific, noted that the looming presence of inflation, on top of the ongoing Covid-19 restrictions in China, are creating a sense of caution towards the market outlook for the second half of 2022. “Ongoing issues such as the energy crisis in Europe and labor shortages continue to affect the supply chain, bringing much uncertainty for the months ahead,” he added.</p>
<p><strong>RELATED ARTICLES</strong></p><p><a href="https://lot.dhl.com/potential-economic-headwinds-add-stress-to-supply-chain/"><figure><img src="https://lot.dhl.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/potential-economic-headwinds-add-stress-to-supply-chain-key-image.jpg"/></figure></a><br/><a href="https://lot.dhl.com/potential-economic-headwinds-add-stress-to-supply-chain/"><strong>Potential economic headwinds add stress to supply chain</strong></a><br/>Despite softened rates from a Q2 slowdown, uncertainties loom heavily.</p><h2>Capacity up</h2>
<p>More positively, freight options are increasing as bellyhold space returns to the market, albeit capacity remains lower now than pre-Covid. Available cargo capacity in June 2022 rose six percent compared to June 2021. This is the result of additional summer passenger flights entering the market as travel restrictions are removed around the world. However, total capacity remained 11 percent lower than in June 2019.</p>
<p>According to the July DHL Air Freight Market Update, while overall capacity in July was up 18 percent year-on-year, passenger capacity was almost 19 percent lower than in pre-Covid July 2019.</p>
<h2>Delicate balance</h2>
<p>Capacity additions and the deteriorating economic picture combined to push rates downwards in June, especially on the North Atlantic where rates have dropped 30 percent over the last three months, according to CLIVE. DHL’s July Airfreight Market Update also notes that general airfreight rates in June this year were still 120 percent higher than in June 2019 and 23 percent higher than in June 2021.</p>
<p>Niall van de Wouw, founder of CLIVE and Chief Airfreight Officer at Xeneta, said the softening Atlantic market, where more capacity has been added this summer, could have wider repercussions even on ex Asia lanes to the US and Europe where flights are currently “relatively full” if carriers transfer capacity away from the Atlantic lanes.</p>
<p>“Will carriers deploy their freighters to other markets in Asia Pacific, Africa, or South America? We are already seeing some freighter redeployment in the market,” said van de Wouw.</p>
<p>“But even on the trans-Atlantic trade land, there are still shortages of space. And globally demand for main deck capacity remains high,” added Mack.</p>
<p><strong>RELATED ARTICLES</strong></p><p><a href="https://lot.dhl.com/temper-expectations-end-of-china-lockdowns/"><figure><img src="https://lot.dhl.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/temper-expectations-end-of-china-lockdowns-key-image.jpg"/></figure></a><br/><a href="https://lot.dhl.com/temper-expectations-end-of-china-lockdowns/"><strong>Temper expectations of quick recovery after end of China lockdowns</strong></a><br/>Freight rates are expected to normalize in 2023, but unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels.</p><h2>Explaining rate declines</h2>
<p>Bruce Chan, Director &amp; Senior Analyst, Global Logistics &amp; Future Mobility Equity Research at Stifel, admitted in a report for the Baltic Exchange that Stifel had expected rates to rise in June. Explaining the downturn, he noted four factors.</p>
<p>First, fuel prices tapered steadily during the month, tempering increases in base rates.</p>
<p>Secondly, the third quarter is typically the second-slowest air freight shipping season and “we are currently entering the normal late-summer lull before the onset of the holiday peak” so the rates drop could also be partly seasonal.</p>
<p>“The third possible explanation is that the post-shutdown manufacturing ramp-up in China has been, and will be, more gradual than we expected,” said Chan.</p>
<p>Finally, Chan said there was also the possibility that demand was starting to moderate on a long-term basis. “Are we seeing signs that the recessionary bogeyman has arrived?” he added. “Airfreight volumes and airfreight rates are likely a leading indicator, in our view, but we don’t have clear evidence to support that thesis,” noted Chan.</p>
<p>Annualized U.S. GDP contracted 1.6 percent in 1Q22, for example, but unemployment and absolute consumer spending figures have been more resilient, and U.S. inventory-to-sales ratios remain near all-time lows.</p>
<p>“We don’t, and cannot, discount the possibility of the last scenario. And, while we do expect a broader slowdown at some point in 2023, we believe that what is currently impacting rates is shorter-term in nature,” added Chan.</p>
<p><strong>RELATED ARTICLES</strong></p><p><a href="https://lot.dhl.com/dhl-air-freight-state-of-the-industry-july-2022/"><figure><img src="https://lot.dhl.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/AFR-July-2022-key-image.jpg"/></figure></a><br/><a href="https://lot.dhl.com/dhl-air-freight-state-of-the-industry-july-2022/"><strong>DHL Air Freight State of the Industry – July 2022</strong></a><br/>Find out the latest developments of the global air freight market in this monthly analysis by DHL Global Forwarding.</p>
            [field_data_translated] => <p>随着疫情封锁期间需求量减少，空运运力回升，即将到来的旺季和经济前景将面临更多的不确定性。 </p><p>航空货运市场继续疲软，表现为运力增强但需求低迷，但即使腹舱运力已经恢复，总体状况仍没有发生太大变化。</p>
<p>DGF空运部全球主管Thomas Mack预计今年晚些时候航空货运市场将发生紧缩，并敦促业界随着旺季的临近要保持谨慎。</p>
<p>“今年6月和7月，全世界获得了一些喘息的空间，而我们预计今年旺季期间需求量也不会激增，”他说，还提到<a href="https://lot.dhl.com/dhl-air-freight-state-of-the-industry-july-2022/">DHL的《7月航空货运行业状况报告》</a>预测未来几个月内各贸易航线的需求量将持续呈现疲软态势，尤其是从亚洲到美国和欧洲的航线。</p>
<p>如果今年晚些时候经济不利因素能够缓解，那么仍有充足的市场回升空间――而且是很大的空间。</p>
<p>CLIVE数据服务公司称，由于俄乌战争、通胀率高涨、股市下跌和中国新冠肺炎疫情限制措施影响了企业信心和运输水平，今年5月航空货运市场总容量同比下降了8％。6月航空货运市场总容量的发展轨迹与之类似，同比下降了8％，与2019年6月相比下降了7％。</p>
<p>亚太航空公司协会总干事Subhas Menon先生称，经过2021年的增长之后，航空货运需求现在面临更多挑战，其中“由于全球经济前景越来越不明朗，出口订单在企业信心水平下降的驱动下面临下行压力”。</p>
<p>DGF亚太区首席执行官Kelvin Leung指出，除中国持续的新冠肺炎疫情限制措施外，通胀的压力也让业界谨慎看待2022年下半年的市场前景。“欧洲能源危机和劳动力短缺等持续性问题将继续对供应链造成影响，给未来几个月带来了很大的不确定性，”他补充道。</p>
<p><strong>RELATED ARTICLES</strong></p><p><a href="https://lot.dhl.com/potential-economic-headwinds-add-stress-to-supply-chain/"><figure><img src="https://lot.dhl.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/potential-economic-headwinds-add-stress-to-supply-chain-key-image.jpg"/></figure></a><br/><a href="https://lot.dhl.com/potential-economic-headwinds-add-stress-to-supply-chain/"><strong>Potential economic headwinds add stress to supply chain</strong></a><br/>Despite softened rates from a Q2 slowdown, uncertainties loom heavily.</p><h2><strong>运力增加</strong></h2>
<p>值得乐观的是，随着腹舱空间回归市场――虽然运力仍低于疫情前水平，货运选择在增多。2022年6月可用运力同比增长了6％。这是因为随着世界各地解除出行限制，更多的夏季客运航班进入市场。然而，总运力仍比2019年6月低11％。</p>
<p>根据《7月DHL航空货运市场最新消息》，虽然7月总运力同比增长18％，但客运运力与疫情前的2019年7月相比低了近19％。</p>
<h2><strong>脆弱的平衡</strong></h2>
<p>CLIVE称，今年6月，运力增加和经济状况的恶化压低了运费，尤其是北大西洋地区的费率在过去三个月内下降了30％。《7月DHL航空货运市场最新消息》也提到，今年6月的总体货物空运费仍比2019年6月高出120％，比2021年6月高出23％。</p>
<p>CLIVE公司创始人、Xeneta首席空运官Niall van de Wouw说道，虽然今年夏天运力有所提高，但疲软的大西洋市场甚至可能给从亚洲到美国和欧洲的航线造成更大的影响，因为如果承运商将运力从大西洋航线转移出来，那么从亚洲到美国和欧洲航线上的航班就会“相对饱和”。</p>
<p>“承运商会将他们的货机部署到亚太地区、非洲或南美洲的其他市场吗？可以看到市场上一些货机已经经历了重新部署，”van de Wouw说道。</p>
<p>“但即使是在跨大西洋贸易路线上仍然存在舱位短缺的情况。而从全球来看，主舱运力需求仍然较为旺盛，”他补充道。</p>
<p><strong>RELATED ARTICLES</strong></p><p><a href="https://lot.dhl.com/temper-expectations-end-of-china-lockdowns/"><figure><img src="https://lot.dhl.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/temper-expectations-end-of-china-lockdowns-key-image.jpg"/></figure></a><br/><a href="https://lot.dhl.com/temper-expectations-end-of-china-lockdowns/"><strong>Temper expectations of quick recovery after end of China lockdowns</strong></a><br/>Freight rates are expected to normalize in 2023, but unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels.</p><h2>费率为何下降</h2>
<p>Stifel公司全球物流和未来出行股权研究部主管和高级分析师Bruce Chan在提交给波罗的海交易所的一份报告中承认，Stifel曾预测运费将在6月上涨。在解释费率为何下降时，他提到了四个因素。</p>
<p>首先，本月燃油价格稳步下降，削弱了基本费率的上涨势头。</p>
<p>其次，第三季度一般是第二慢的航空货运季节，“在节假日高峰来临前，我们正在进入正常的夏末平静期”，因此费率下降在一定程度上可能是季节性的。</p>
<p>“第三个可能的原因是，中国解除封控后制造业恢复产能的速度比我们预期的更缓慢，之前如此，之后一段时间也将如此，”Chan说道。</p>
<p>最后，Chan认为，也存在从长期来看需求开始放缓的可能性。“我们看到任何迹象暗示经济已经开始衰退了吗？”他补充道。“在我们看来，航空货运数量和空运费很可能是一个先导指标，但我们没有明确的证据来支持这个论点，”Chan说道。</p>
<p>例如，2022年第一季度美国年化GDP下降了1.6％，但失业率和绝对消费支出数据较为坚挺，而且美国存货销售比仍然接近历史最低水平。</p>
<p>“我们没有也不能低估最后一种情形的可能性。而且，虽然我们预计2023年的某个时候会发生更大范围的经济放缓，但我们认为目前影响费率的因素是短期性的，”Chan补充道。</p>
<p><strong>RELATED ARTICLES</strong></p><p><a href="https://lot.dhl.com/dhl-air-freight-state-of-the-industry-july-2022/"><figure><img src="https://lot.dhl.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/AFR-July-2022-key-image.jpg"/></figure></a><br/><a href="https://lot.dhl.com/dhl-air-freight-state-of-the-industry-july-2022/"><strong>DHL Air Freight State of the Industry – July 2022</strong></a><br/>Find out the latest developments of the global air freight market in this monthly analysis by DHL Global Forwarding.</p>
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		Array
(
    [While air capacity saw some return with reduced demand from lockdowns, the approaching peak season and economic outlook spell further uncertainty.] => 随着疫情封锁期间需求量减少,空运运力回升,即将到来的旺季和经济前景将面临更多的不确定性。
    [[]] => 
    [Adopt cautious approach ahead of peak season despite brief respite] => 尽管得到片刻喘息,旺季来临前仍须保持谨慎
    [Capacity up
More positively, freight options are increasing as bellyhold space returns to the market, albeit capacity remains lower now than pre-Covid. Available cargo capacity in June 2022 rose six percent compared to June 2021. This is the result of additional summer passenger flights entering the market as travel restrictions are removed around the world. However, total capacity remained 11 percent lower than in June 2019.

According to the July DHL Air Freight Market Update, while overall capacity in July was up 18 percent year-on-year, passenger capacity was almost 19 percent lower than in pre-Covid July 2019.
Delicate balance
Capacity additions and the deteriorating economic picture combined to push rates downwards in June, especially on the North Atlantic where rates have dropped 30 percent over the last three months, according to CLIVE. DHL’s July Airfreight Market Update also notes that general airfreight rates in June this year were still 120 percent higher than in June 2019 and 23 percent higher than in June 2021.

Niall van de Wouw, founder of CLIVE and Chief Airfreight Officer at Xeneta, said the softening Atlantic market, where more capacity has been added this summer, could have wider repercussions even on ex Asia lanes to the US and Europe where flights are currently “relatively full” if carriers transfer capacity away from the Atlantic lanes.

“Will carriers deploy their freighters to other markets in Asia Pacific, Africa, or South America? We are already seeing some freighter redeployment in the market,” said van de Wouw.

“But even on the trans-Atlantic trade land, there are still shortages of space. And globally demand for main deck capacity remains high,” added Mack.] => 

运力增加

值得乐观的是,随着腹舱空间回归市场――虽然运力仍低于疫情前水平,货运选择在增多。2022年6月可用运力同比增长了6%。这是因为随着世界各地解除出行限制,更多的夏季客运航班进入市场。然而,总运力仍比2019年6月低11%。 根据《7月DHL航空货运市场最新消息》,虽然7月总运力同比增长18%,但客运运力与疫情前的2019年7月相比低了近19%。

脆弱的平衡

CLIVE称,今年6月,运力增加和经济状况的恶化压低了运费,尤其是北大西洋地区的费率在过去三个月内下降了30%。《7月DHL航空货运市场最新消息》也提到,今年6月的总体货物空运费仍比2019年6月高出120%,比2021年6月高出23%。 CLIVE公司创始人、Xeneta首席空运官Niall van de Wouw说道,虽然今年夏天运力有所提高,但疲软的大西洋市场甚至可能给从亚洲到美国和欧洲的航线造成更大的影响,因为如果承运商将运力从大西洋航线转移出来,那么从亚洲到美国和欧洲航线上的航班就会“相对饱和”。 “承运商会将他们的货机部署到亚太地区、非洲或南美洲的其他市场吗?可以看到市场上一些货机已经经历了重新部署,”van de Wouw说道。 “但即使是在跨大西洋贸易路线上仍然存在舱位短缺的情况。而从全球来看,主舱运力需求仍然较为旺盛,”他补充道。 [Explaining rate declines Bruce Chan, Director & Senior Analyst, Global Logistics & Future Mobility Equity Research at Stifel, admitted in a report for the Baltic Exchange that Stifel had expected rates to rise in June. Explaining the downturn, he noted four factors. First, fuel prices tapered steadily during the month, tempering increases in base rates. Secondly, the third quarter is typically the second-slowest air freight shipping season and “we are currently entering the normal late-summer lull before the onset of the holiday peak” so the rates drop could also be partly seasonal. “The third possible explanation is that the post-shutdown manufacturing ramp-up in China has been, and will be, more gradual than we expected,” said Chan. Finally, Chan said there was also the possibility that demand was starting to moderate on a long-term basis. “Are we seeing signs that the recessionary bogeyman has arrived?” he added. “Airfreight volumes and airfreight rates are likely a leading indicator, in our view, but we don’t have clear evidence to support that thesis,” noted Chan. Annualized U.S. GDP contracted 1.6 percent in 1Q22, for example, but unemployment and absolute consumer spending figures have been more resilient, and U.S. inventory-to-sales ratios remain near all-time lows. “We don’t, and cannot, discount the possibility of the last scenario. And, while we do expect a broader slowdown at some point in 2023, we believe that what is currently impacting rates is shorter-term in nature,” added Chan.] =>

费率为何下降

Stifel公司全球物流和未来出行股权研究部主管和高级分析师Bruce Chan在提交给波罗的海交易所的一份报告中承认,Stifel曾预测运费将在6月上涨。在解释费率为何下降时,他提到了四个因素。 首先,本月燃油价格稳步下降,削弱了基本费率的上涨势头。 其次,第三季度一般是第二慢的航空货运季节,“在节假日高峰来临前,我们正在进入正常的夏末平静期”,因此费率下降在一定程度上可能是季节性的。 “第三个可能的原因是,中国解除封控后制造业恢复产能的速度比我们预期的更缓慢,之前如此,之后一段时间也将如此,”Chan说道。 最后,Chan认为,也存在从长期来看需求开始放缓的可能性。“我们看到任何迹象暗示经济已经开始衰退了吗?”他补充道。“在我们看来,航空货运数量和空运费很可能是一个先导指标,但我们没有明确的证据来支持这个论点,”Chan说道。 例如,2022年第一季度美国年化GDP下降了1.6%,但失业率和绝对消费支出数据较为坚挺,而且美国存货销售比仍然接近历史最低水平。 “我们没有也不能低估最后一种情形的可能性。而且,虽然我们预计2023年的某个时候会发生更大范围的经济放缓,但我们认为目前影响费率的因素是短期性的,”Chan补充道。 [The air cargo market continues to soften on higher capacity and sluggish demand, but the overall picture is very nuanced even as bellyhold capacity is returning to the market. Thomas Mack, Global Head of Air Freight, DHL Global Forwarding expects air freight markets to tighten later this year, and urges a sense of caution as the peak season approaches. “The world enjoyed some breathing room during the months of June and July and we do not expect a sudden surge in demand during this year’s peak season too,” he said, noting that DHL’s July Airfreight State of the Industry is forecasting that the softened demand across trade lanes in the coming months, especially out of Asia towards the U.S. and Europe will continue. There is ample scope for a market upturn later in the year if – and it’s a big if - economic headwinds ease. General air cargo market volumes fell eight percent year-over-year in May as war in Ukraine, soaring inflation, stock market declines and Covid-related restrictions in China battered business confidence and shipment levels, according to CLIVE Data Services. June followed a similar trajectory with volumes down eight percent year-on-year and down by seven percent compared to June 2019. Mr. Subhas Menon, Director General of the Association of Asia Pacific Airlines, said that after a buoyant 2021, air cargo demand was now encountering more challenges, with “export orders facing downward pressures driven by waning business confidence levels amid an increasingly cloudy global economic outlook”. Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific, noted that the looming presence of inflation, on top of the ongoing Covid-19 restrictions in China, are creating a sense of caution towards the market outlook for the second half of 2022. “Ongoing issues such as the energy crisis in Europe and labor shortages continue to affect the supply chain, bringing much uncertainty for the months ahead,” he added.] => 航空货运市场继续疲软,表现为运力增强但需求低迷,但即使腹舱运力已经恢复,总体状况仍没有发生太大变化。 DGF空运部全球主管Thomas Mack预计今年晚些时候航空货运市场将发生紧缩,并敦促业界随着旺季的临近要保持谨慎。 “今年6月和7月,全世界获得了一些喘息的空间,而我们预计今年旺季期间需求量也不会激增,”他说,还提到DHL的《7月航空货运行业状况报告》预测未来几个月内各贸易航线的需求量将持续呈现疲软态势,尤其是从亚洲到美国和欧洲的航线。 如果今年晚些时候经济不利因素能够缓解,那么仍有充足的市场回升空间――而且是很大的空间。 CLIVE数据服务公司称,由于俄乌战争、通胀率高涨、股市下跌和中国新冠肺炎疫情限制措施影响了企业信心和运输水平,今年5月航空货运市场总容量同比下降了8%。6月航空货运市场总容量的发展轨迹与之类似,同比下降了8%,与2019年6月相比下降了7%。 亚太航空公司协会总干事Subhas Menon先生称,经过2021年的增长之后,航空货运需求现在面临更多挑战,其中“由于全球经济前景越来越不明朗,出口订单在企业信心水平下降的驱动下面临下行压力”。 DGF亚太区首席执行官Kelvin Leung指出,除中国持续的新冠肺炎疫情限制措施外,通胀的压力也让业界谨慎看待2022年下半年的市场前景。“欧洲能源危机和劳动力短缺等持续性问题将继续对供应链造成影响,给未来几个月带来了很大的不确定性,”他补充道。 [wysiwyg] => wysiwyg [outbound_box] => outbound_box [While air capacity saw some return with reduced demand from lockdowns, the approaching peak season and economic outlook spell further uncertainty. The air cargo market continues to soften on higher capacity and sluggish demand, but the overall picture is very nuanced even as bellyhold capacity is returning to the market. Thomas Mack, Global Head of Air Freight, DHL Global Forwarding expects air freight markets to tighten later this year, and urges a sense of caution as the peak season approaches. “The world enjoyed some breathing room during the months of June and July and we do not expect a sudden surge in demand during this year’s peak season too,” he said, noting that DHL’s July Airfreight State of the Industry is forecasting that the softened demand across trade lanes in the coming months, especially out of Asia towards the U.S. and Europe will continue. There is ample scope for a market upturn later in the year if – and it’s a big if – economic headwinds ease. General air cargo market volumes fell eight percent year-over-year in May as war in Ukraine, soaring inflation, stock market declines and Covid-related restrictions in China battered business confidence and shipment levels, according to CLIVE Data Services. June followed a similar trajectory with volumes down eight percent year-on-year and down by seven percent compared to June 2019. Mr. Subhas Menon, Director General of the Association of Asia Pacific Airlines, said that after a buoyant 2021, air cargo demand was now encountering more challenges, with “export orders facing downward pressures driven by waning business confidence levels amid an increasingly cloudy global economic outlook”. Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific, noted that the looming presence of inflation, on top of the ongoing Covid-19 restrictions in China, are creating a sense of caution towards the market outlook for the second half of 2022. “Ongoing issues such as the energy crisis in Europe and labor shortages continue to affect the supply chain, bringing much uncertainty for the months ahead,” he added. RELATED ARTICLESPotential economic headwinds add stress to supply chainDespite softened rates from a Q2 slowdown, uncertainties loom heavily.Capacity up More positively, freight options are increasing as bellyhold space returns to the market, albeit capacity remains lower now than pre-Covid. Available cargo capacity in June 2022 rose six percent compared to June 2021. This is the result of additional summer passenger flights entering the market as travel restrictions are removed around the world. However, total capacity remained 11 percent lower than in June 2019. According to the July DHL Air Freight Market Update, while overall capacity in July was up 18 percent year-on-year, passenger capacity was almost 19 percent lower than in pre-Covid July 2019. Delicate balance Capacity additions and the deteriorating economic picture combined to push rates downwards in June, especially on the North Atlantic where rates have dropped 30 percent over the last three months, according to CLIVE. DHL’s July Airfreight Market Update also notes that general airfreight rates in June this year were still 120 percent higher than in June 2019 and 23 percent higher than in June 2021. Niall van de Wouw, founder of CLIVE and Chief Airfreight Officer at Xeneta, said the softening Atlantic market, where more capacity has been added this summer, could have wider repercussions even on ex Asia lanes to the US and Europe where flights are currently “relatively full” if carriers transfer capacity away from the Atlantic lanes. “Will carriers deploy their freighters to other markets in Asia Pacific, Africa, or South America? We are already seeing some freighter redeployment in the market,” said van de Wouw. “But even on the trans-Atlantic trade land, there are still shortages of space. And globally demand for main deck capacity remains high,” added Mack. RELATED ARTICLESTemper expectations of quick recovery after end of China lockdownsFreight rates are expected to normalize in 2023, but unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels.Explaining rate declines Bruce Chan, Director & Senior Analyst, Global Logistics & Future Mobility Equity Research at Stifel, admitted in a report for the Baltic Exchange that Stifel had expected rates to rise in June. Explaining the downturn, he noted four factors. First, fuel prices tapered steadily during the month, tempering increases in base rates. Secondly, the third quarter is typically the second-slowest air freight shipping season and “we are currently entering the normal late-summer lull before the onset of the holiday peak” so the rates drop could also be partly seasonal. “The third possible explanation is that the post-shutdown manufacturing ramp-up in China has been, and will be, more gradual than we expected,” said Chan. Finally, Chan said there was also the possibility that demand was starting to moderate on a long-term basis. “Are we seeing signs that the recessionary bogeyman has arrived?” he added. “Airfreight volumes and airfreight rates are likely a leading indicator, in our view, but we don’t have clear evidence to support that thesis,” noted Chan. Annualized U.S. GDP contracted 1.6 percent in 1Q22, for example, but unemployment and absolute consumer spending figures have been more resilient, and U.S. inventory-to-sales ratios remain near all-time lows. “We don’t, and cannot, discount the possibility of the last scenario. And, while we do expect a broader slowdown at some point in 2023, we believe that what is currently impacting rates is shorter-term in nature,” added Chan. RELATED ARTICLESDHL Air Freight State of the Industry – July 2022Find out the latest developments of the global air freight market in this monthly analysis by DHL Global Forwarding.] =>

随着疫情封锁期间需求量减少,空运运力回升,即将到来的旺季和经济前景将面临更多的不确定性。

航空货运市场继续疲软,表现为运力增强但需求低迷,但即使腹舱运力已经恢复,总体状况仍没有发生太大变化。

DGF空运部全球主管Thomas Mack预计今年晚些时候航空货运市场将发生紧缩,并敦促业界随着旺季的临近要保持谨慎。

“今年6月和7月,全世界获得了一些喘息的空间,而我们预计今年旺季期间需求量也不会激增,”他说,还提到DHL的《7月航空货运行业状况报告》预测未来几个月内各贸易航线的需求量将持续呈现疲软态势,尤其是从亚洲到美国和欧洲的航线。

如果今年晚些时候经济不利因素能够缓解,那么仍有充足的市场回升空间――而且是很大的空间。

CLIVE数据服务公司称,由于俄乌战争、通胀率高涨、股市下跌和中国新冠肺炎疫情限制措施影响了企业信心和运输水平,今年5月航空货运市场总容量同比下降了8%。6月航空货运市场总容量的发展轨迹与之类似,同比下降了8%,与2019年6月相比下降了7%。

亚太航空公司协会总干事Subhas Menon先生称,经过2021年的增长之后,航空货运需求现在面临更多挑战,其中“由于全球经济前景越来越不明朗,出口订单在企业信心水平下降的驱动下面临下行压力”。

DGF亚太区首席执行官Kelvin Leung指出,除中国持续的新冠肺炎疫情限制措施外,通胀的压力也让业界谨慎看待2022年下半年的市场前景。“欧洲能源危机和劳动力短缺等持续性问题将继续对供应链造成影响,给未来几个月带来了很大的不确定性,”他补充道。

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运力增加

值得乐观的是,随着腹舱空间回归市场――虽然运力仍低于疫情前水平,货运选择在增多。2022年6月可用运力同比增长了6%。这是因为随着世界各地解除出行限制,更多的夏季客运航班进入市场。然而,总运力仍比2019年6月低11%。

根据《7月DHL航空货运市场最新消息》,虽然7月总运力同比增长18%,但客运运力与疫情前的2019年7月相比低了近19%。

脆弱的平衡

CLIVE称,今年6月,运力增加和经济状况的恶化压低了运费,尤其是北大西洋地区的费率在过去三个月内下降了30%。《7月DHL航空货运市场最新消息》也提到,今年6月的总体货物空运费仍比2019年6月高出120%,比2021年6月高出23%。

CLIVE公司创始人、Xeneta首席空运官Niall van de Wouw说道,虽然今年夏天运力有所提高,但疲软的大西洋市场甚至可能给从亚洲到美国和欧洲的航线造成更大的影响,因为如果承运商将运力从大西洋航线转移出来,那么从亚洲到美国和欧洲航线上的航班就会“相对饱和”。

“承运商会将他们的货机部署到亚太地区、非洲或南美洲的其他市场吗?可以看到市场上一些货机已经经历了重新部署,”van de Wouw说道。

“但即使是在跨大西洋贸易路线上仍然存在舱位短缺的情况。而从全球来看,主舱运力需求仍然较为旺盛,”他补充道。

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费率为何下降

Stifel公司全球物流和未来出行股权研究部主管和高级分析师Bruce Chan在提交给波罗的海交易所的一份报告中承认,Stifel曾预测运费将在6月上涨。在解释费率为何下降时,他提到了四个因素。

首先,本月燃油价格稳步下降,削弱了基本费率的上涨势头。

其次,第三季度一般是第二慢的航空货运季节,“在节假日高峰来临前,我们正在进入正常的夏末平静期”,因此费率下降在一定程度上可能是季节性的。

“第三个可能的原因是,中国解除封控后制造业恢复产能的速度比我们预期的更缓慢,之前如此,之后一段时间也将如此,”Chan说道。

最后,Chan认为,也存在从长期来看需求开始放缓的可能性。“我们看到任何迹象暗示经济已经开始衰退了吗?”他补充道。“在我们看来,航空货运数量和空运费很可能是一个先导指标,但我们没有明确的证据来支持这个论点,”Chan说道。

例如,2022年第一季度美国年化GDP下降了1.6%,但失业率和绝对消费支出数据较为坚挺,而且美国存货销售比仍然接近历史最低水平。

“我们没有也不能低估最后一种情形的可能性。而且,虽然我们预计2023年的某个时候会发生更大范围的经济放缓,但我们认为目前影响费率的因素是短期性的,”Chan补充道。

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DHL Air Freight State of the Industry – July 2022
Find out the latest developments of the global air freight market in this monthly analysis by DHL Global Forwarding.

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