Array
(
[derick] => Array
(
[While air capacity saw some return with reduced demand from lockdowns, the approaching peak season and economic outlook spell further uncertainty.] => 随着疫情封锁期间需求量减少，空运运力回升，即将到来的旺季和经济前景将面临更多的不确定性。
[[]] =>
[Adopt cautious approach ahead of peak season despite brief respite] => 尽管得到片刻喘息，旺季来临前仍须保持谨慎
[Capacity up
More positively, freight options are increasing as bellyhold space returns to the market, albeit capacity remains lower now than pre-Covid. Available cargo capacity in June 2022 rose six percent compared to June 2021. This is the result of additional summer passenger flights entering the market as travel restrictions are removed around the world. However, total capacity remained 11 percent lower than in June 2019.
According to the July DHL Air Freight Market Update, while overall capacity in July was up 18 percent year-on-year, passenger capacity was almost 19 percent lower than in pre-Covid July 2019.
Delicate balance
Capacity additions and the deteriorating economic picture combined to push rates downwards in June, especially on the North Atlantic where rates have dropped 30 percent over the last three months, according to CLIVE. DHL’s July Airfreight Market Update also notes that general airfreight rates in June this year were still 120 percent higher than in June 2019 and 23 percent higher than in June 2021.
Niall van de Wouw, founder of CLIVE and Chief Airfreight Officer at Xeneta, said the softening Atlantic market, where more capacity has been added this summer, could have wider repercussions even on ex Asia lanes to the US and Europe where flights are currently “relatively full” if carriers transfer capacity away from the Atlantic lanes.
“Will carriers deploy their freighters to other markets in Asia Pacific, Africa, or South America? We are already seeing some freighter redeployment in the market,” said van de Wouw.
“But even on the trans-Atlantic trade land, there are still shortages of space. And globally demand for main deck capacity remains high,” added Mack.] =>
CLIVE称，今年6月，运力增加和经济状况的恶化压低了运费，尤其是北大西洋地区的费率在过去三个月内下降了30％。《7月DHL航空货运市场最新消息》也提到，今年6月的总体货物空运费仍比2019年6月高出120％，比2021年6月高出23％。
CLIVE公司创始人、Xeneta首席空运官Niall van de Wouw说道，虽然今年夏天运力有所提高，但疲软的大西洋市场甚至可能给从亚洲到美国和欧洲的航线造成更大的影响，因为如果承运商将运力从大西洋航线转移出来，那么从亚洲到美国和欧洲航线上的航班就会“相对饱和”。
“承运商会将他们的货机部署到亚太地区、非洲或南美洲的其他市场吗？可以看到市场上一些货机已经经历了重新部署，”van de Wouw说道。
“但即使是在跨大西洋贸易路线上仍然存在舱位短缺的情况。而从全球来看，主舱运力需求仍然较为旺盛，”他补充道。
[Explaining rate declines
Bruce Chan, Director & Senior Analyst, Global Logistics & Future Mobility Equity Research at Stifel, admitted in a report for the Baltic Exchange that Stifel had expected rates to rise in June. Explaining the downturn, he noted four factors.
First, fuel prices tapered steadily during the month, tempering increases in base rates.
Secondly, the third quarter is typically the second-slowest air freight shipping season and “we are currently entering the normal late-summer lull before the onset of the holiday peak” so the rates drop could also be partly seasonal.
“The third possible explanation is that the post-shutdown manufacturing ramp-up in China has been, and will be, more gradual than we expected,” said Chan.
Finally, Chan said there was also the possibility that demand was starting to moderate on a long-term basis. “Are we seeing signs that the recessionary bogeyman has arrived?” he added. “Airfreight volumes and airfreight rates are likely a leading indicator, in our view, but we don’t have clear evidence to support that thesis,” noted Chan.
Annualized U.S. GDP contracted 1.6 percent in 1Q22, for example, but unemployment and absolute consumer spending figures have been more resilient, and U.S. inventory-to-sales ratios remain near all-time lows.
“We don’t, and cannot, discount the possibility of the last scenario. And, while we do expect a broader slowdown at some point in 2023, we believe that what is currently impacting rates is shorter-term in nature,” added Chan.] =>
费率为何下降
Stifel公司全球物流和未来出行股权研究部主管和高级分析师Bruce Chan在提交给波罗的海交易所的一份报告中承认，Stifel曾预测运费将在6月上涨。在解释费率为何下降时，他提到了四个因素。
首先，本月燃油价格稳步下降，削弱了基本费率的上涨势头。
其次，第三季度一般是第二慢的航空货运季节，“在节假日高峰来临前，我们正在进入正常的夏末平静期”，因此费率下降在一定程度上可能是季节性的。
“第三个可能的原因是，中国解除封控后制造业恢复产能的速度比我们预期的更缓慢，之前如此，之后一段时间也将如此，”Chan说道。
最后，Chan认为，也存在从长期来看需求开始放缓的可能性。“我们看到任何迹象暗示经济已经开始衰退了吗？”他补充道。“在我们看来，航空货运数量和空运费很可能是一个先导指标，但我们没有明确的证据来支持这个论点，”Chan说道。
例如，2022年第一季度美国年化GDP下降了1.6％，但失业率和绝对消费支出数据较为坚挺，而且美国存货销售比仍然接近历史最低水平。
“我们没有也不能低估最后一种情形的可能性。而且，虽然我们预计2023年的某个时候会发生更大范围的经济放缓，但我们认为目前影响费率的因素是短期性的，”Chan补充道。
[The air cargo market continues to soften on higher capacity and sluggish demand, but the overall picture is very nuanced even as bellyhold capacity is returning to the market.
Thomas Mack, Global Head of Air Freight, DHL Global Forwarding expects air freight markets to tighten later this year, and urges a sense of caution as the peak season approaches.
“The world enjoyed some breathing room during the months of June and July and we do not expect a sudden surge in demand during this year’s peak season too,” he said, noting that DHL’s July Airfreight State of the Industry is forecasting that the softened demand across trade lanes in the coming months, especially out of Asia towards the U.S. and Europe will continue.
There is ample scope for a market upturn later in the year if – and it’s a big if - economic headwinds ease.
General air cargo market volumes fell eight percent year-over-year in May as war in Ukraine, soaring inflation, stock market declines and Covid-related restrictions in China battered business confidence and shipment levels, according to CLIVE Data Services. June followed a similar trajectory with volumes down eight percent year-on-year and down by seven percent compared to June 2019.
Mr. Subhas Menon, Director General of the Association of Asia Pacific Airlines, said that after a buoyant 2021, air cargo demand was now encountering more challenges, with “export orders facing downward pressures driven by waning business confidence levels amid an increasingly cloudy global economic outlook”.
Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific, noted that the looming presence of inflation, on top of the ongoing Covid-19 restrictions in China, are creating a sense of caution towards the market outlook for the second half of 2022. “Ongoing issues such as the energy crisis in Europe and labor shortages continue to affect the supply chain, bringing much uncertainty for the months ahead,” he added.] => 航空货运市场继续疲软，表现为运力增强但需求低迷，但即使腹舱运力已经恢复，总体状况仍没有发生太大变化。
DGF空运部全球主管Thomas Mack预计今年晚些时候航空货运市场将发生紧缩，并敦促业界随着旺季的临近要保持谨慎。
“今年6月和7月，全世界获得了一些喘息的空间，而我们预计今年旺季期间需求量也不会激增，”他说，还提到DHL的《7月航空货运行业状况报告》预测未来几个月内各贸易航线的需求量将持续呈现疲软态势，尤其是从亚洲到美国和欧洲的航线。
如果今年晚些时候经济不利因素能够缓解，那么仍有充足的市场回升空间――而且是很大的空间。
CLIVE数据服务公司称，由于俄乌战争、通胀率高涨、股市下跌和中国新冠肺炎疫情限制措施影响了企业信心和运输水平，今年5月航空货运市场总容量同比下降了8％。6月航空货运市场总容量的发展轨迹与之类似，同比下降了8％，与2019年6月相比下降了7％。
亚太航空公司协会总干事Subhas Menon先生称，经过2021年的增长之后，航空货运需求现在面临更多挑战，其中“由于全球经济前景越来越不明朗，出口订单在企业信心水平下降的驱动下面临下行压力”。
DGF亚太区首席执行官Kelvin Leung指出，除中国持续的新冠肺炎疫情限制措施外，通胀的压力也让业界谨慎看待2022年下半年的市场前景。“欧洲能源危机和劳动力短缺等持续性问题将继续对供应链造成影响，给未来几个月带来了很大的不确定性，”他补充道。
[wysiwyg] => wysiwyg
[outbound_box] => outbound_box
[While air capacity saw some return with reduced demand from lockdowns, the approaching peak season and economic outlook spell further uncertainty. The air cargo market continues to soften on higher capacity and sluggish demand, but the overall picture is very nuanced even as bellyhold capacity is returning to the market.
Thomas Mack, Global Head of Air Freight, DHL Global Forwarding expects air freight markets to tighten later this year, and urges a sense of caution as the peak season approaches.
“The world enjoyed some breathing room during the months of June and July and we do not expect a sudden surge in demand during this year’s peak season too,” he said, noting that DHL’s July Airfreight State of the Industry is forecasting that the softened demand across trade lanes in the coming months, especially out of Asia towards the U.S. and Europe will continue.
There is ample scope for a market upturn later in the year if – and it’s a big if – economic headwinds ease.
General air cargo market volumes fell eight percent year-over-year in May as war in Ukraine, soaring inflation, stock market declines and Covid-related restrictions in China battered business confidence and shipment levels, according to CLIVE Data Services. June followed a similar trajectory with volumes down eight percent year-on-year and down by seven percent compared to June 2019.
Mr. Subhas Menon, Director General of the Association of Asia Pacific Airlines, said that after a buoyant 2021, air cargo demand was now encountering more challenges, with “export orders facing downward pressures driven by waning business confidence levels amid an increasingly cloudy global economic outlook”.
Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific, noted that the looming presence of inflation, on top of the ongoing Covid-19 restrictions in China, are creating a sense of caution towards the market outlook for the second half of 2022. “Ongoing issues such as the energy crisis in Europe and labor shortages continue to affect the supply chain, bringing much uncertainty for the months ahead,” he added.
RELATED ARTICLESPotential economic headwinds add stress to supply chainDespite softened rates from a Q2 slowdown, uncertainties loom heavily.Capacity up
More positively, freight options are increasing as bellyhold space returns to the market, albeit capacity remains lower now than pre-Covid. Available cargo capacity in June 2022 rose six percent compared to June 2021. This is the result of additional summer passenger flights entering the market as travel restrictions are removed around the world. However, total capacity remained 11 percent lower than in June 2019.
According to the July DHL Air Freight Market Update, while overall capacity in July was up 18 percent year-on-year, passenger capacity was almost 19 percent lower than in pre-Covid July 2019.
Delicate balance
Capacity additions and the deteriorating economic picture combined to push rates downwards in June, especially on the North Atlantic where rates have dropped 30 percent over the last three months, according to CLIVE. DHL’s July Airfreight Market Update also notes that general airfreight rates in June this year were still 120 percent higher than in June 2019 and 23 percent higher than in June 2021.
Niall van de Wouw, founder of CLIVE and Chief Airfreight Officer at Xeneta, said the softening Atlantic market, where more capacity has been added this summer, could have wider repercussions even on ex Asia lanes to the US and Europe where flights are currently “relatively full” if carriers transfer capacity away from the Atlantic lanes.
“Will carriers deploy their freighters to other markets in Asia Pacific, Africa, or South America? We are already seeing some freighter redeployment in the market,” said van de Wouw.
“But even on the trans-Atlantic trade land, there are still shortages of space. And globally demand for main deck capacity remains high,” added Mack.
RELATED ARTICLESTemper expectations of quick recovery after end of China lockdownsFreight rates are expected to normalize in 2023, but unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels.Explaining rate declines
Bruce Chan, Director & Senior Analyst, Global Logistics & Future Mobility Equity Research at Stifel, admitted in a report for the Baltic Exchange that Stifel had expected rates to rise in June. Explaining the downturn, he noted four factors.
First, fuel prices tapered steadily during the month, tempering increases in base rates.
Secondly, the third quarter is typically the second-slowest air freight shipping season and “we are currently entering the normal late-summer lull before the onset of the holiday peak” so the rates drop could also be partly seasonal.
“The third possible explanation is that the post-shutdown manufacturing ramp-up in China has been, and will be, more gradual than we expected,” said Chan.
Finally, Chan said there was also the possibility that demand was starting to moderate on a long-term basis. “Are we seeing signs that the recessionary bogeyman has arrived?” he added. “Airfreight volumes and airfreight rates are likely a leading indicator, in our view, but we don’t have clear evidence to support that thesis,” noted Chan.
Annualized U.S. GDP contracted 1.6 percent in 1Q22, for example, but unemployment and absolute consumer spending figures have been more resilient, and U.S. inventory-to-sales ratios remain near all-time lows.
“We don’t, and cannot, discount the possibility of the last scenario. And, while we do expect a broader slowdown at some point in 2023, we believe that what is currently impacting rates is shorter-term in nature,” added Chan.
RELATED ARTICLESDHL Air Freight State of the Industry – July 2022Find out the latest developments of the global air freight market in this monthly analysis by DHL Global Forwarding.] =>
[] =>
[cautious-approach-peak-season-despite-brief-respite] => cautious-approach-peak-season-despite-brief-respite
[potential-economic-headwinds-add-stress-to-supply-chain-key-image] => potential-economic-headwinds-add-stress-to-supply-chain-key-image
[Potential economic headwinds add stress to supply chain] => Potential economic headwinds add stress to supply chain
[temper-expectations-end-of-china-lockdowns-key-image] => temper-expectations-end-of-china-lockdowns-key-image
[Temper expectations of quick recovery after end of China lockdowns] => Temper expectations of quick recovery after end of China lockdowns
[AFR-July-2022-key-image] => AFR-July-2022-key-image
[DHL Air Freight State of the Industry – July 2022] => DHL Air Freight State of the Industry – July 2022
[cautious-approach-peak-season-despite-brief-respite-single-column] => cautious-approach-peak-season-despite-brief-respite-single-column
[Adopt cautious approach ahead of peak season despite brief respite Meta] => Adopt cautious approach ahead of peak season despite brief respite Meta
[cautious-approach-peak-season-despite-brief-respite-key-image] => cautious-approach-peak-season-despite-brief-respite-key-image
)
[$value] => The air cargo market continues to soften on higher capacity and sluggish demand, but the overall picture is very nuanced even as bellyhold capacity is returning to the market.
Thomas Mack, Global Head of Air Freight, DHL Global Forwarding expects air freight markets to tighten later this year, and urges a sense of caution as the peak season approaches.
“The world enjoyed some breathing room during the months of June and July and we do not expect a sudden surge in demand during this year’s peak season too,” he said, noting that DHL’s July Airfreight State of the Industry is forecasting that the softened demand across trade lanes in the coming months, especially out of Asia towards the U.S. and Europe will continue.
There is ample scope for a market upturn later in the year if – and it’s a big if - economic headwinds ease.
General air cargo market volumes fell eight percent year-over-year in May as war in Ukraine, soaring inflation, stock market declines and Covid-related restrictions in China battered business confidence and shipment levels, according to CLIVE Data Services. June followed a similar trajectory with volumes down eight percent year-on-year and down by seven percent compared to June 2019.
Mr. Subhas Menon, Director General of the Association of Asia Pacific Airlines, said that after a buoyant 2021, air cargo demand was now encountering more challenges, with “export orders facing downward pressures driven by waning business confidence levels amid an increasingly cloudy global economic outlook”.
Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific, noted that the looming presence of inflation, on top of the ongoing Covid-19 restrictions in China, are creating a sense of caution towards the market outlook for the second half of 2022. “Ongoing issues such as the energy crisis in Europe and labor shortages continue to affect the supply chain, bringing much uncertainty for the months ahead,” he added.
)
Array
(
[derick] => Array
(
[While air capacity saw some return with reduced demand from lockdowns, the approaching peak season and economic outlook spell further uncertainty.] => 随着疫情封锁期间需求量减少，空运运力回升，即将到来的旺季和经济前景将面临更多的不确定性。
[[]] =>
[Adopt cautious approach ahead of peak season despite brief respite] => 尽管得到片刻喘息，旺季来临前仍须保持谨慎
[Capacity up
More positively, freight options are increasing as bellyhold space returns to the market, albeit capacity remains lower now than pre-Covid. Available cargo capacity in June 2022 rose six percent compared to June 2021. This is the result of additional summer passenger flights entering the market as travel restrictions are removed around the world. However, total capacity remained 11 percent lower than in June 2019.
According to the July DHL Air Freight Market Update, while overall capacity in July was up 18 percent year-on-year, passenger capacity was almost 19 percent lower than in pre-Covid July 2019.
Delicate balance
Capacity additions and the deteriorating economic picture combined to push rates downwards in June, especially on the North Atlantic where rates have dropped 30 percent over the last three months, according to CLIVE. DHL’s July Airfreight Market Update also notes that general airfreight rates in June this year were still 120 percent higher than in June 2019 and 23 percent higher than in June 2021.
Niall van de Wouw, founder of CLIVE and Chief Airfreight Officer at Xeneta, said the softening Atlantic market, where more capacity has been added this summer, could have wider repercussions even on ex Asia lanes to the US and Europe where flights are currently “relatively full” if carriers transfer capacity away from the Atlantic lanes.
“Will carriers deploy their freighters to other markets in Asia Pacific, Africa, or South America? We are already seeing some freighter redeployment in the market,” said van de Wouw.
“But even on the trans-Atlantic trade land, there are still shortages of space. And globally demand for main deck capacity remains high,” added Mack.] =>
CLIVE称，今年6月，运力增加和经济状况的恶化压低了运费，尤其是北大西洋地区的费率在过去三个月内下降了30％。《7月DHL航空货运市场最新消息》也提到，今年6月的总体货物空运费仍比2019年6月高出120％，比2021年6月高出23％。
CLIVE公司创始人、Xeneta首席空运官Niall van de Wouw说道，虽然今年夏天运力有所提高，但疲软的大西洋市场甚至可能给从亚洲到美国和欧洲的航线造成更大的影响，因为如果承运商将运力从大西洋航线转移出来，那么从亚洲到美国和欧洲航线上的航班就会“相对饱和”。
“承运商会将他们的货机部署到亚太地区、非洲或南美洲的其他市场吗？可以看到市场上一些货机已经经历了重新部署，”van de Wouw说道。
“但即使是在跨大西洋贸易路线上仍然存在舱位短缺的情况。而从全球来看，主舱运力需求仍然较为旺盛，”他补充道。
[Explaining rate declines
Bruce Chan, Director & Senior Analyst, Global Logistics & Future Mobility Equity Research at Stifel, admitted in a report for the Baltic Exchange that Stifel had expected rates to rise in June. Explaining the downturn, he noted four factors.
First, fuel prices tapered steadily during the month, tempering increases in base rates.
Secondly, the third quarter is typically the second-slowest air freight shipping season and “we are currently entering the normal late-summer lull before the onset of the holiday peak” so the rates drop could also be partly seasonal.
“The third possible explanation is that the post-shutdown manufacturing ramp-up in China has been, and will be, more gradual than we expected,” said Chan.
Finally, Chan said there was also the possibility that demand was starting to moderate on a long-term basis. “Are we seeing signs that the recessionary bogeyman has arrived?” he added. “Airfreight volumes and airfreight rates are likely a leading indicator, in our view, but we don’t have clear evidence to support that thesis,” noted Chan.
Annualized U.S. GDP contracted 1.6 percent in 1Q22, for example, but unemployment and absolute consumer spending figures have been more resilient, and U.S. inventory-to-sales ratios remain near all-time lows.
“We don’t, and cannot, discount the possibility of the last scenario. And, while we do expect a broader slowdown at some point in 2023, we believe that what is currently impacting rates is shorter-term in nature,” added Chan.] =>
费率为何下降
Stifel公司全球物流和未来出行股权研究部主管和高级分析师Bruce Chan在提交给波罗的海交易所的一份报告中承认，Stifel曾预测运费将在6月上涨。在解释费率为何下降时，他提到了四个因素。
首先，本月燃油价格稳步下降，削弱了基本费率的上涨势头。
其次，第三季度一般是第二慢的航空货运季节，“在节假日高峰来临前，我们正在进入正常的夏末平静期”，因此费率下降在一定程度上可能是季节性的。
“第三个可能的原因是，中国解除封控后制造业恢复产能的速度比我们预期的更缓慢，之前如此，之后一段时间也将如此，”Chan说道。
最后，Chan认为，也存在从长期来看需求开始放缓的可能性。“我们看到任何迹象暗示经济已经开始衰退了吗？”他补充道。“在我们看来，航空货运数量和空运费很可能是一个先导指标，但我们没有明确的证据来支持这个论点，”Chan说道。
例如，2022年第一季度美国年化GDP下降了1.6％，但失业率和绝对消费支出数据较为坚挺，而且美国存货销售比仍然接近历史最低水平。
“我们没有也不能低估最后一种情形的可能性。而且，虽然我们预计2023年的某个时候会发生更大范围的经济放缓，但我们认为目前影响费率的因素是短期性的，”Chan补充道。
[The air cargo market continues to soften on higher capacity and sluggish demand, but the overall picture is very nuanced even as bellyhold capacity is returning to the market.
Thomas Mack, Global Head of Air Freight, DHL Global Forwarding expects air freight markets to tighten later this year, and urges a sense of caution as the peak season approaches.
“The world enjoyed some breathing room during the months of June and July and we do not expect a sudden surge in demand during this year’s peak season too,” he said, noting that DHL’s July Airfreight State of the Industry is forecasting that the softened demand across trade lanes in the coming months, especially out of Asia towards the U.S. and Europe will continue.
There is ample scope for a market upturn later in the year if – and it’s a big if - economic headwinds ease.
General air cargo market volumes fell eight percent year-over-year in May as war in Ukraine, soaring inflation, stock market declines and Covid-related restrictions in China battered business confidence and shipment levels, according to CLIVE Data Services. June followed a similar trajectory with volumes down eight percent year-on-year and down by seven percent compared to June 2019.
Mr. Subhas Menon, Director General of the Association of Asia Pacific Airlines, said that after a buoyant 2021, air cargo demand was now encountering more challenges, with “export orders facing downward pressures driven by waning business confidence levels amid an increasingly cloudy global economic outlook”.
Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific, noted that the looming presence of inflation, on top of the ongoing Covid-19 restrictions in China, are creating a sense of caution towards the market outlook for the second half of 2022. “Ongoing issues such as the energy crisis in Europe and labor shortages continue to affect the supply chain, bringing much uncertainty for the months ahead,” he added.] => 航空货运市场继续疲软，表现为运力增强但需求低迷，但即使腹舱运力已经恢复，总体状况仍没有发生太大变化。
DGF空运部全球主管Thomas Mack预计今年晚些时候航空货运市场将发生紧缩，并敦促业界随着旺季的临近要保持谨慎。
“今年6月和7月，全世界获得了一些喘息的空间，而我们预计今年旺季期间需求量也不会激增，”他说，还提到DHL的《7月航空货运行业状况报告》预测未来几个月内各贸易航线的需求量将持续呈现疲软态势，尤其是从亚洲到美国和欧洲的航线。
如果今年晚些时候经济不利因素能够缓解，那么仍有充足的市场回升空间――而且是很大的空间。
CLIVE数据服务公司称，由于俄乌战争、通胀率高涨、股市下跌和中国新冠肺炎疫情限制措施影响了企业信心和运输水平，今年5月航空货运市场总容量同比下降了8％。6月航空货运市场总容量的发展轨迹与之类似，同比下降了8％，与2019年6月相比下降了7％。
亚太航空公司协会总干事Subhas Menon先生称，经过2021年的增长之后，航空货运需求现在面临更多挑战，其中“由于全球经济前景越来越不明朗，出口订单在企业信心水平下降的驱动下面临下行压力”。
DGF亚太区首席执行官Kelvin Leung指出，除中国持续的新冠肺炎疫情限制措施外，通胀的压力也让业界谨慎看待2022年下半年的市场前景。“欧洲能源危机和劳动力短缺等持续性问题将继续对供应链造成影响，给未来几个月带来了很大的不确定性，”他补充道。
[wysiwyg] => wysiwyg
[outbound_box] => outbound_box
[While air capacity saw some return with reduced demand from lockdowns, the approaching peak season and economic outlook spell further uncertainty. The air cargo market continues to soften on higher capacity and sluggish demand, but the overall picture is very nuanced even as bellyhold capacity is returning to the market.
Thomas Mack, Global Head of Air Freight, DHL Global Forwarding expects air freight markets to tighten later this year, and urges a sense of caution as the peak season approaches.
“The world enjoyed some breathing room during the months of June and July and we do not expect a sudden surge in demand during this year’s peak season too,” he said, noting that DHL’s July Airfreight State of the Industry is forecasting that the softened demand across trade lanes in the coming months, especially out of Asia towards the U.S. and Europe will continue.
There is ample scope for a market upturn later in the year if – and it’s a big if – economic headwinds ease.
General air cargo market volumes fell eight percent year-over-year in May as war in Ukraine, soaring inflation, stock market declines and Covid-related restrictions in China battered business confidence and shipment levels, according to CLIVE Data Services. June followed a similar trajectory with volumes down eight percent year-on-year and down by seven percent compared to June 2019.
Mr. Subhas Menon, Director General of the Association of Asia Pacific Airlines, said that after a buoyant 2021, air cargo demand was now encountering more challenges, with “export orders facing downward pressures driven by waning business confidence levels amid an increasingly cloudy global economic outlook”.
Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific, noted that the looming presence of inflation, on top of the ongoing Covid-19 restrictions in China, are creating a sense of caution towards the market outlook for the second half of 2022. “Ongoing issues such as the energy crisis in Europe and labor shortages continue to affect the supply chain, bringing much uncertainty for the months ahead,” he added.
RELATED ARTICLESPotential economic headwinds add stress to supply chainDespite softened rates from a Q2 slowdown, uncertainties loom heavily.Capacity up
More positively, freight options are increasing as bellyhold space returns to the market, albeit capacity remains lower now than pre-Covid. Available cargo capacity in June 2022 rose six percent compared to June 2021. This is the result of additional summer passenger flights entering the market as travel restrictions are removed around the world. However, total capacity remained 11 percent lower than in June 2019.
According to the July DHL Air Freight Market Update, while overall capacity in July was up 18 percent year-on-year, passenger capacity was almost 19 percent lower than in pre-Covid July 2019.
Delicate balance
Capacity additions and the deteriorating economic picture combined to push rates downwards in June, especially on the North Atlantic where rates have dropped 30 percent over the last three months, according to CLIVE. DHL’s July Airfreight Market Update also notes that general airfreight rates in June this year were still 120 percent higher than in June 2019 and 23 percent higher than in June 2021.
Niall van de Wouw, founder of CLIVE and Chief Airfreight Officer at Xeneta, said the softening Atlantic market, where more capacity has been added this summer, could have wider repercussions even on ex Asia lanes to the US and Europe where flights are currently “relatively full” if carriers transfer capacity away from the Atlantic lanes.
“Will carriers deploy their freighters to other markets in Asia Pacific, Africa, or South America? We are already seeing some freighter redeployment in the market,” said van de Wouw.
“But even on the trans-Atlantic trade land, there are still shortages of space. And globally demand for main deck capacity remains high,” added Mack.
RELATED ARTICLESTemper expectations of quick recovery after end of China lockdownsFreight rates are expected to normalize in 2023, but unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels.Explaining rate declines
Bruce Chan, Director & Senior Analyst, Global Logistics & Future Mobility Equity Research at Stifel, admitted in a report for the Baltic Exchange that Stifel had expected rates to rise in June. Explaining the downturn, he noted four factors.
First, fuel prices tapered steadily during the month, tempering increases in base rates.
Secondly, the third quarter is typically the second-slowest air freight shipping season and “we are currently entering the normal late-summer lull before the onset of the holiday peak” so the rates drop could also be partly seasonal.
“The third possible explanation is that the post-shutdown manufacturing ramp-up in China has been, and will be, more gradual than we expected,” said Chan.
Finally, Chan said there was also the possibility that demand was starting to moderate on a long-term basis. “Are we seeing signs that the recessionary bogeyman has arrived?” he added. “Airfreight volumes and airfreight rates are likely a leading indicator, in our view, but we don’t have clear evidence to support that thesis,” noted Chan.
Annualized U.S. GDP contracted 1.6 percent in 1Q22, for example, but unemployment and absolute consumer spending figures have been more resilient, and U.S. inventory-to-sales ratios remain near all-time lows.
“We don’t, and cannot, discount the possibility of the last scenario. And, while we do expect a broader slowdown at some point in 2023, we believe that what is currently impacting rates is shorter-term in nature,” added Chan.
RELATED ARTICLESDHL Air Freight State of the Industry – July 2022Find out the latest developments of the global air freight market in this monthly analysis by DHL Global Forwarding.] =>
[] =>
[cautious-approach-peak-season-despite-brief-respite] => cautious-approach-peak-season-despite-brief-respite
[potential-economic-headwinds-add-stress-to-supply-chain-key-image] => potential-economic-headwinds-add-stress-to-supply-chain-key-image
[Potential economic headwinds add stress to supply chain] => Potential economic headwinds add stress to supply chain
[temper-expectations-end-of-china-lockdowns-key-image] => temper-expectations-end-of-china-lockdowns-key-image
[Temper expectations of quick recovery after end of China lockdowns] => Temper expectations of quick recovery after end of China lockdowns
[AFR-July-2022-key-image] => AFR-July-2022-key-image
[DHL Air Freight State of the Industry – July 2022] => DHL Air Freight State of the Industry – July 2022
[cautious-approach-peak-season-despite-brief-respite-single-column] => cautious-approach-peak-season-despite-brief-respite-single-column
[Adopt cautious approach ahead of peak season despite brief respite Meta] => Adopt cautious approach ahead of peak season despite brief respite Meta
[cautious-approach-peak-season-despite-brief-respite-key-image] => cautious-approach-peak-season-despite-brief-respite-key-image
)
[$value] =>
Capacity up
More positively, freight options are increasing as bellyhold space returns to the market, albeit capacity remains lower now than pre-Covid. Available cargo capacity in June 2022 rose six percent compared to June 2021. This is the result of additional summer passenger flights entering the market as travel restrictions are removed around the world. However, total capacity remained 11 percent lower than in June 2019.
According to the July DHL Air Freight Market Update, while overall capacity in July was up 18 percent year-on-year, passenger capacity was almost 19 percent lower than in pre-Covid July 2019.
Delicate balance
Capacity additions and the deteriorating economic picture combined to push rates downwards in June, especially on the North Atlantic where rates have dropped 30 percent over the last three months, according to CLIVE. DHL’s July Airfreight Market Update also notes that general airfreight rates in June this year were still 120 percent higher than in June 2019 and 23 percent higher than in June 2021.
Niall van de Wouw, founder of CLIVE and Chief Airfreight Officer at Xeneta, said the softening Atlantic market, where more capacity has been added this summer, could have wider repercussions even on ex Asia lanes to the US and Europe where flights are currently “relatively full” if carriers transfer capacity away from the Atlantic lanes.
“Will carriers deploy their freighters to other markets in Asia Pacific, Africa, or South America? We are already seeing some freighter redeployment in the market,” said van de Wouw.
“But even on the trans-Atlantic trade land, there are still shortages of space. And globally demand for main deck capacity remains high,” added Mack.
)
Array
(
[derick] => Array
(
[While air capacity saw some return with reduced demand from lockdowns, the approaching peak season and economic outlook spell further uncertainty.] => 随着疫情封锁期间需求量减少，空运运力回升，即将到来的旺季和经济前景将面临更多的不确定性。
[[]] =>
[Adopt cautious approach ahead of peak season despite brief respite] => 尽管得到片刻喘息，旺季来临前仍须保持谨慎
[Capacity up
More positively, freight options are increasing as bellyhold space returns to the market, albeit capacity remains lower now than pre-Covid. Available cargo capacity in June 2022 rose six percent compared to June 2021. This is the result of additional summer passenger flights entering the market as travel restrictions are removed around the world. However, total capacity remained 11 percent lower than in June 2019.
According to the July DHL Air Freight Market Update, while overall capacity in July was up 18 percent year-on-year, passenger capacity was almost 19 percent lower than in pre-Covid July 2019.
Delicate balance
Capacity additions and the deteriorating economic picture combined to push rates downwards in June, especially on the North Atlantic where rates have dropped 30 percent over the last three months, according to CLIVE. DHL’s July Airfreight Market Update also notes that general airfreight rates in June this year were still 120 percent higher than in June 2019 and 23 percent higher than in June 2021.
Niall van de Wouw, founder of CLIVE and Chief Airfreight Officer at Xeneta, said the softening Atlantic market, where more capacity has been added this summer, could have wider repercussions even on ex Asia lanes to the US and Europe where flights are currently “relatively full” if carriers transfer capacity away from the Atlantic lanes.
“Will carriers deploy their freighters to other markets in Asia Pacific, Africa, or South America? We are already seeing some freighter redeployment in the market,” said van de Wouw.
“But even on the trans-Atlantic trade land, there are still shortages of space. And globally demand for main deck capacity remains high,” added Mack.] =>
CLIVE称，今年6月，运力增加和经济状况的恶化压低了运费，尤其是北大西洋地区的费率在过去三个月内下降了30％。《7月DHL航空货运市场最新消息》也提到，今年6月的总体货物空运费仍比2019年6月高出120％，比2021年6月高出23％。
CLIVE公司创始人、Xeneta首席空运官Niall van de Wouw说道，虽然今年夏天运力有所提高，但疲软的大西洋市场甚至可能给从亚洲到美国和欧洲的航线造成更大的影响，因为如果承运商将运力从大西洋航线转移出来，那么从亚洲到美国和欧洲航线上的航班就会“相对饱和”。
“承运商会将他们的货机部署到亚太地区、非洲或南美洲的其他市场吗？可以看到市场上一些货机已经经历了重新部署，”van de Wouw说道。
“但即使是在跨大西洋贸易路线上仍然存在舱位短缺的情况。而从全球来看，主舱运力需求仍然较为旺盛，”他补充道。
[Explaining rate declines
Bruce Chan, Director & Senior Analyst, Global Logistics & Future Mobility Equity Research at Stifel, admitted in a report for the Baltic Exchange that Stifel had expected rates to rise in June. Explaining the downturn, he noted four factors.
First, fuel prices tapered steadily during the month, tempering increases in base rates.
Secondly, the third quarter is typically the second-slowest air freight shipping season and “we are currently entering the normal late-summer lull before the onset of the holiday peak” so the rates drop could also be partly seasonal.
“The third possible explanation is that the post-shutdown manufacturing ramp-up in China has been, and will be, more gradual than we expected,” said Chan.
Finally, Chan said there was also the possibility that demand was starting to moderate on a long-term basis. “Are we seeing signs that the recessionary bogeyman has arrived?” he added. “Airfreight volumes and airfreight rates are likely a leading indicator, in our view, but we don’t have clear evidence to support that thesis,” noted Chan.
Annualized U.S. GDP contracted 1.6 percent in 1Q22, for example, but unemployment and absolute consumer spending figures have been more resilient, and U.S. inventory-to-sales ratios remain near all-time lows.
“We don’t, and cannot, discount the possibility of the last scenario. And, while we do expect a broader slowdown at some point in 2023, we believe that what is currently impacting rates is shorter-term in nature,” added Chan.] =>
费率为何下降
Stifel公司全球物流和未来出行股权研究部主管和高级分析师Bruce Chan在提交给波罗的海交易所的一份报告中承认，Stifel曾预测运费将在6月上涨。在解释费率为何下降时，他提到了四个因素。
首先，本月燃油价格稳步下降，削弱了基本费率的上涨势头。
其次，第三季度一般是第二慢的航空货运季节，“在节假日高峰来临前，我们正在进入正常的夏末平静期”，因此费率下降在一定程度上可能是季节性的。
“第三个可能的原因是，中国解除封控后制造业恢复产能的速度比我们预期的更缓慢，之前如此，之后一段时间也将如此，”Chan说道。
最后，Chan认为，也存在从长期来看需求开始放缓的可能性。“我们看到任何迹象暗示经济已经开始衰退了吗？”他补充道。“在我们看来，航空货运数量和空运费很可能是一个先导指标，但我们没有明确的证据来支持这个论点，”Chan说道。
例如，2022年第一季度美国年化GDP下降了1.6％，但失业率和绝对消费支出数据较为坚挺，而且美国存货销售比仍然接近历史最低水平。
“我们没有也不能低估最后一种情形的可能性。而且，虽然我们预计2023年的某个时候会发生更大范围的经济放缓，但我们认为目前影响费率的因素是短期性的，”Chan补充道。
[The air cargo market continues to soften on higher capacity and sluggish demand, but the overall picture is very nuanced even as bellyhold capacity is returning to the market.
Thomas Mack, Global Head of Air Freight, DHL Global Forwarding expects air freight markets to tighten later this year, and urges a sense of caution as the peak season approaches.
“The world enjoyed some breathing room during the months of June and July and we do not expect a sudden surge in demand during this year’s peak season too,” he said, noting that DHL’s July Airfreight State of the Industry is forecasting that the softened demand across trade lanes in the coming months, especially out of Asia towards the U.S. and Europe will continue.
There is ample scope for a market upturn later in the year if – and it’s a big if - economic headwinds ease.
General air cargo market volumes fell eight percent year-over-year in May as war in Ukraine, soaring inflation, stock market declines and Covid-related restrictions in China battered business confidence and shipment levels, according to CLIVE Data Services. June followed a similar trajectory with volumes down eight percent year-on-year and down by seven percent compared to June 2019.
Mr. Subhas Menon, Director General of the Association of Asia Pacific Airlines, said that after a buoyant 2021, air cargo demand was now encountering more challenges, with “export orders facing downward pressures driven by waning business confidence levels amid an increasingly cloudy global economic outlook”.
Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific, noted that the looming presence of inflation, on top of the ongoing Covid-19 restrictions in China, are creating a sense of caution towards the market outlook for the second half of 2022. “Ongoing issues such as the energy crisis in Europe and labor shortages continue to affect the supply chain, bringing much uncertainty for the months ahead,” he added.] => 航空货运市场继续疲软，表现为运力增强但需求低迷，但即使腹舱运力已经恢复，总体状况仍没有发生太大变化。
DGF空运部全球主管Thomas Mack预计今年晚些时候航空货运市场将发生紧缩，并敦促业界随着旺季的临近要保持谨慎。
“今年6月和7月，全世界获得了一些喘息的空间，而我们预计今年旺季期间需求量也不会激增，”他说，还提到DHL的《7月航空货运行业状况报告》预测未来几个月内各贸易航线的需求量将持续呈现疲软态势，尤其是从亚洲到美国和欧洲的航线。
如果今年晚些时候经济不利因素能够缓解，那么仍有充足的市场回升空间――而且是很大的空间。
CLIVE数据服务公司称，由于俄乌战争、通胀率高涨、股市下跌和中国新冠肺炎疫情限制措施影响了企业信心和运输水平，今年5月航空货运市场总容量同比下降了8％。6月航空货运市场总容量的发展轨迹与之类似，同比下降了8％，与2019年6月相比下降了7％。
亚太航空公司协会总干事Subhas Menon先生称，经过2021年的增长之后，航空货运需求现在面临更多挑战，其中“由于全球经济前景越来越不明朗，出口订单在企业信心水平下降的驱动下面临下行压力”。
DGF亚太区首席执行官Kelvin Leung指出，除中国持续的新冠肺炎疫情限制措施外，通胀的压力也让业界谨慎看待2022年下半年的市场前景。“欧洲能源危机和劳动力短缺等持续性问题将继续对供应链造成影响，给未来几个月带来了很大的不确定性，”他补充道。
[wysiwyg] => wysiwyg
[outbound_box] => outbound_box
[While air capacity saw some return with reduced demand from lockdowns, the approaching peak season and economic outlook spell further uncertainty. The air cargo market continues to soften on higher capacity and sluggish demand, but the overall picture is very nuanced even as bellyhold capacity is returning to the market.
Thomas Mack, Global Head of Air Freight, DHL Global Forwarding expects air freight markets to tighten later this year, and urges a sense of caution as the peak season approaches.
“The world enjoyed some breathing room during the months of June and July and we do not expect a sudden surge in demand during this year’s peak season too,” he said, noting that DHL’s July Airfreight State of the Industry is forecasting that the softened demand across trade lanes in the coming months, especially out of Asia towards the U.S. and Europe will continue.
There is ample scope for a market upturn later in the year if – and it’s a big if – economic headwinds ease.
General air cargo market volumes fell eight percent year-over-year in May as war in Ukraine, soaring inflation, stock market declines and Covid-related restrictions in China battered business confidence and shipment levels, according to CLIVE Data Services. June followed a similar trajectory with volumes down eight percent year-on-year and down by seven percent compared to June 2019.
Mr. Subhas Menon, Director General of the Association of Asia Pacific Airlines, said that after a buoyant 2021, air cargo demand was now encountering more challenges, with “export orders facing downward pressures driven by waning business confidence levels amid an increasingly cloudy global economic outlook”.
Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific, noted that the looming presence of inflation, on top of the ongoing Covid-19 restrictions in China, are creating a sense of caution towards the market outlook for the second half of 2022. “Ongoing issues such as the energy crisis in Europe and labor shortages continue to affect the supply chain, bringing much uncertainty for the months ahead,” he added.
RELATED ARTICLESPotential economic headwinds add stress to supply chainDespite softened rates from a Q2 slowdown, uncertainties loom heavily.Capacity up
More positively, freight options are increasing as bellyhold space returns to the market, albeit capacity remains lower now than pre-Covid. Available cargo capacity in June 2022 rose six percent compared to June 2021. This is the result of additional summer passenger flights entering the market as travel restrictions are removed around the world. However, total capacity remained 11 percent lower than in June 2019.
According to the July DHL Air Freight Market Update, while overall capacity in July was up 18 percent year-on-year, passenger capacity was almost 19 percent lower than in pre-Covid July 2019.
Delicate balance
Capacity additions and the deteriorating economic picture combined to push rates downwards in June, especially on the North Atlantic where rates have dropped 30 percent over the last three months, according to CLIVE. DHL’s July Airfreight Market Update also notes that general airfreight rates in June this year were still 120 percent higher than in June 2019 and 23 percent higher than in June 2021.
Niall van de Wouw, founder of CLIVE and Chief Airfreight Officer at Xeneta, said the softening Atlantic market, where more capacity has been added this summer, could have wider repercussions even on ex Asia lanes to the US and Europe where flights are currently “relatively full” if carriers transfer capacity away from the Atlantic lanes.
“Will carriers deploy their freighters to other markets in Asia Pacific, Africa, or South America? We are already seeing some freighter redeployment in the market,” said van de Wouw.
“But even on the trans-Atlantic trade land, there are still shortages of space. And globally demand for main deck capacity remains high,” added Mack.
RELATED ARTICLESTemper expectations of quick recovery after end of China lockdownsFreight rates are expected to normalize in 2023, but unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels.Explaining rate declines
Bruce Chan, Director & Senior Analyst, Global Logistics & Future Mobility Equity Research at Stifel, admitted in a report for the Baltic Exchange that Stifel had expected rates to rise in June. Explaining the downturn, he noted four factors.
First, fuel prices tapered steadily during the month, tempering increases in base rates.
Secondly, the third quarter is typically the second-slowest air freight shipping season and “we are currently entering the normal late-summer lull before the onset of the holiday peak” so the rates drop could also be partly seasonal.
“The third possible explanation is that the post-shutdown manufacturing ramp-up in China has been, and will be, more gradual than we expected,” said Chan.
Finally, Chan said there was also the possibility that demand was starting to moderate on a long-term basis. “Are we seeing signs that the recessionary bogeyman has arrived?” he added. “Airfreight volumes and airfreight rates are likely a leading indicator, in our view, but we don’t have clear evidence to support that thesis,” noted Chan.
Annualized U.S. GDP contracted 1.6 percent in 1Q22, for example, but unemployment and absolute consumer spending figures have been more resilient, and U.S. inventory-to-sales ratios remain near all-time lows.
“We don’t, and cannot, discount the possibility of the last scenario. And, while we do expect a broader slowdown at some point in 2023, we believe that what is currently impacting rates is shorter-term in nature,” added Chan.
RELATED ARTICLESDHL Air Freight State of the Industry – July 2022Find out the latest developments of the global air freight market in this monthly analysis by DHL Global Forwarding.] =>
[] =>
[cautious-approach-peak-season-despite-brief-respite] => cautious-approach-peak-season-despite-brief-respite
[potential-economic-headwinds-add-stress-to-supply-chain-key-image] => potential-economic-headwinds-add-stress-to-supply-chain-key-image
[Potential economic headwinds add stress to supply chain] => Potential economic headwinds add stress to supply chain
[temper-expectations-end-of-china-lockdowns-key-image] => temper-expectations-end-of-china-lockdowns-key-image
[Temper expectations of quick recovery after end of China lockdowns] => Temper expectations of quick recovery after end of China lockdowns
[AFR-July-2022-key-image] => AFR-July-2022-key-image
[DHL Air Freight State of the Industry – July 2022] => DHL Air Freight State of the Industry – July 2022
[cautious-approach-peak-season-despite-brief-respite-single-column] => cautious-approach-peak-season-despite-brief-respite-single-column
[Adopt cautious approach ahead of peak season despite brief respite Meta] => Adopt cautious approach ahead of peak season despite brief respite Meta
[cautious-approach-peak-season-despite-brief-respite-key-image] => cautious-approach-peak-season-despite-brief-respite-key-image
)
[$value] =>
Explaining rate declines
Bruce Chan, Director & Senior Analyst, Global Logistics & Future Mobility Equity Research at Stifel, admitted in a report for the Baltic Exchange that Stifel had expected rates to rise in June. Explaining the downturn, he noted four factors.
First, fuel prices tapered steadily during the month, tempering increases in base rates.
Secondly, the third quarter is typically the second-slowest air freight shipping season and “we are currently entering the normal late-summer lull before the onset of the holiday peak” so the rates drop could also be partly seasonal.
“The third possible explanation is that the post-shutdown manufacturing ramp-up in China has been, and will be, more gradual than we expected,” said Chan.
Finally, Chan said there was also the possibility that demand was starting to moderate on a long-term basis. “Are we seeing signs that the recessionary bogeyman has arrived?” he added. “Airfreight volumes and airfreight rates are likely a leading indicator, in our view, but we don’t have clear evidence to support that thesis,” noted Chan.
Annualized U.S. GDP contracted 1.6 percent in 1Q22, for example, but unemployment and absolute consumer spending figures have been more resilient, and U.S. inventory-to-sales ratios remain near all-time lows.
“We don’t, and cannot, discount the possibility of the last scenario. And, while we do expect a broader slowdown at some point in 2023, we believe that what is currently impacting rates is shorter-term in nature,” added Chan.
)
Freight rates are expected to normalize in 2023, but unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels.
The relaxation of most Covid-19 restrictions in Shanghai and many other cities in China during June failed to significantly boost export freight volumes. The anticipated surge of cargo backlogs largely failed to materialize almost immediately after strict lockdowns were lifted.
Even as jet fuel prices remain at highly elevated levels, air freight rates from Shanghai to both Europe and the U.S. edged down throughout June, although they remain far higher than a year earlier.
Aside from weaker than expected exports out of China, another factor explaining weaker rates ex-Asia is that global capacity is gradually creeping upwards. Capacity in June was just 12 percent lower than in June 2019, according to the June DHL Air Freight Market Update.
In Asia, notes the Update, Cathay Pacific has returned to a full freighter schedule into key destinations. Meanwhile, carriers have resumed services from Shanghai and more origins have re-opened with less Covid-19 restrictions.
A combination of the northern hemisphere summer and removal of Covid-19 travel restrictions around the world have also prompted a sizeable increase in demand for seasonal passenger services. This has added more bellyhold capacity to the global mix as carriers bolster summer schedules.
However, the uptick in passenger demand has also unveiled a hangover effect faced by many airlines and airports after two years of lockdowns. Having reduced workforces during the lean years, labor shortages are stymying passenger services, with hundreds of daily flight cancellations in Europe and the U.S. common during June.
Labor shortages are also hampering the free movement of cargo from China into Hong Kong, reports the June DHL Air Freight Market Update.
“There remains inefficiencies in air cargo supply chains linked to labor shortages in multiple jurisdictions,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific. “With Shanghai’s Pudong airport still under a closed-loop arrangement, coupled with the challenges for cross-provincial trucking, the logistics landscape is not normalized yet.”
It should be noted that most carriers have suffered substantial losses over the last two years due to the pandemic, leading to various labour cuts to stay afloat. As carriers now enter a recovery stage, there is a struggle to employ enough people, and also provide security clearance for new employees in time for the summer season.
“We expect many of these blockages to be cleared as the aviation sector returns to a normal footing, and this journey will take a good number of weeks,” added Leung.
On the economic front, there are increasingly worrying indicators, as seen in Chinese manufacturing orders which are reportedly down by as much as 20 to 30 percent.
Rampant inflation is also hitting the growth prospects of key import markets in the U.S. and Europe, resulting in higher product prices and borrowing costs. The U.S. Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell pointed to the “possibility” of a recession, while fears of a major downturn are also growing in Europe.
However, Willie Walsh, Director General of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), struck a relatively positive note in June despite reporting that air cargo demand fell by 11.2 percent year-on-year in April.
“The combination of the war in Ukraine and Covid-19 lockdowns in China have pushed up energy costs, intensified supply chain disruptions, and fed inflation,” he said. “The operating environment is challenging for all businesses, including air cargo. But with China easing lockdown restrictions, there is cause for some optimism and the supply/demand imbalance is keeping yields high.”
Demand contraction
The latest May data from CLIVE Data services suggested the demand contraction is continuing. It reported that general air cargo market volumes fell 8 percent year-on-year in May as the aviation industry’s stuttering recovery was “compounded again by macroeconomic events which show no sign of abating”.
CLIVE reported that air cargo market performance in May was impacted by “the continuing war in Ukraine, the ‘cost of living crisis’ causing consumers to watch their spend more carefully, stock market declines, higher interest rates, Covid-19 restrictions in China, and more warnings of global recession”.
Niall van de Wouw, founder of CLIVE, said: “We sense an anticipation of a slower summer market, followed by hope for growth in Q3 as is traditionally the case, but the market does not look great right now. There are more clouds on the horizon than there were two months ago.”
One cause for optimism for air cargo volumes is ongoing labour negotiations at the U.S. west coast ports which could further disrupt trans-Pacific supply chains. Van de Wouw describes dockworker negotiations as “another example of an external event that has nothing to do with airfreight that could still have a profound impact on the market”.
“There are signs of freight rates softening in the EURO-ASPA trade lanes, and rates are expected to ease by 2023. Rates, however, are unlikely to return to pre-pandemic days, as demand will continue to grow in the coming months,” noted Leung. He also adds that additional factors, such as the “weakening consumer sentiment, especially in Europe, and the ongoing port union negotiations in the U.S.”, have contributed to the uncertainty.
“Pricing will normalize, especially as we think about the continued recovery of international belly capacity and a robust long-term order pipeline for freighters,” said Bruce Chan, Director & Senior Analyst, Global Logistics & Future Mobility Equity Research at Stifel, in a report for the Baltic Exchange.
“However,” added Chan, “the timeline will likely be protracted and shippers are well-advised, in our view, to manage toward resiliency versus freight spend efficiency, at least for now.”
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[While air capacity saw some return with reduced demand from lockdowns, the approaching peak season and economic outlook spell further uncertainty.] => 随着疫情封锁期间需求量减少，空运运力回升，即将到来的旺季和经济前景将面临更多的不确定性。
[[]] =>
[Adopt cautious approach ahead of peak season despite brief respite] => 尽管得到片刻喘息，旺季来临前仍须保持谨慎
[Capacity up
More positively, freight options are increasing as bellyhold space returns to the market, albeit capacity remains lower now than pre-Covid. Available cargo capacity in June 2022 rose six percent compared to June 2021. This is the result of additional summer passenger flights entering the market as travel restrictions are removed around the world. However, total capacity remained 11 percent lower than in June 2019.
According to the July DHL Air Freight Market Update, while overall capacity in July was up 18 percent year-on-year, passenger capacity was almost 19 percent lower than in pre-Covid July 2019.
Delicate balance
Capacity additions and the deteriorating economic picture combined to push rates downwards in June, especially on the North Atlantic where rates have dropped 30 percent over the last three months, according to CLIVE. DHL’s July Airfreight Market Update also notes that general airfreight rates in June this year were still 120 percent higher than in June 2019 and 23 percent higher than in June 2021.
Niall van de Wouw, founder of CLIVE and Chief Airfreight Officer at Xeneta, said the softening Atlantic market, where more capacity has been added this summer, could have wider repercussions even on ex Asia lanes to the US and Europe where flights are currently “relatively full” if carriers transfer capacity away from the Atlantic lanes.
“Will carriers deploy their freighters to other markets in Asia Pacific, Africa, or South America? We are already seeing some freighter redeployment in the market,” said van de Wouw.
“But even on the trans-Atlantic trade land, there are still shortages of space. And globally demand for main deck capacity remains high,” added Mack.] =>
CLIVE称，今年6月，运力增加和经济状况的恶化压低了运费，尤其是北大西洋地区的费率在过去三个月内下降了30％。《7月DHL航空货运市场最新消息》也提到，今年6月的总体货物空运费仍比2019年6月高出120％，比2021年6月高出23％。
CLIVE公司创始人、Xeneta首席空运官Niall van de Wouw说道，虽然今年夏天运力有所提高，但疲软的大西洋市场甚至可能给从亚洲到美国和欧洲的航线造成更大的影响，因为如果承运商将运力从大西洋航线转移出来，那么从亚洲到美国和欧洲航线上的航班就会“相对饱和”。
“承运商会将他们的货机部署到亚太地区、非洲或南美洲的其他市场吗？可以看到市场上一些货机已经经历了重新部署，”van de Wouw说道。
“但即使是在跨大西洋贸易路线上仍然存在舱位短缺的情况。而从全球来看，主舱运力需求仍然较为旺盛，”他补充道。
[Explaining rate declines
Bruce Chan, Director & Senior Analyst, Global Logistics & Future Mobility Equity Research at Stifel, admitted in a report for the Baltic Exchange that Stifel had expected rates to rise in June. Explaining the downturn, he noted four factors.
First, fuel prices tapered steadily during the month, tempering increases in base rates.
Secondly, the third quarter is typically the second-slowest air freight shipping season and “we are currently entering the normal late-summer lull before the onset of the holiday peak” so the rates drop could also be partly seasonal.
“The third possible explanation is that the post-shutdown manufacturing ramp-up in China has been, and will be, more gradual than we expected,” said Chan.
Finally, Chan said there was also the possibility that demand was starting to moderate on a long-term basis. “Are we seeing signs that the recessionary bogeyman has arrived?” he added. “Airfreight volumes and airfreight rates are likely a leading indicator, in our view, but we don’t have clear evidence to support that thesis,” noted Chan.
Annualized U.S. GDP contracted 1.6 percent in 1Q22, for example, but unemployment and absolute consumer spending figures have been more resilient, and U.S. inventory-to-sales ratios remain near all-time lows.
“We don’t, and cannot, discount the possibility of the last scenario. And, while we do expect a broader slowdown at some point in 2023, we believe that what is currently impacting rates is shorter-term in nature,” added Chan.] =>
费率为何下降
Stifel公司全球物流和未来出行股权研究部主管和高级分析师Bruce Chan在提交给波罗的海交易所的一份报告中承认，Stifel曾预测运费将在6月上涨。在解释费率为何下降时，他提到了四个因素。
首先，本月燃油价格稳步下降，削弱了基本费率的上涨势头。
其次，第三季度一般是第二慢的航空货运季节，“在节假日高峰来临前，我们正在进入正常的夏末平静期”，因此费率下降在一定程度上可能是季节性的。
“第三个可能的原因是，中国解除封控后制造业恢复产能的速度比我们预期的更缓慢，之前如此，之后一段时间也将如此，”Chan说道。
最后，Chan认为，也存在从长期来看需求开始放缓的可能性。“我们看到任何迹象暗示经济已经开始衰退了吗？”他补充道。“在我们看来，航空货运数量和空运费很可能是一个先导指标，但我们没有明确的证据来支持这个论点，”Chan说道。
例如，2022年第一季度美国年化GDP下降了1.6％，但失业率和绝对消费支出数据较为坚挺，而且美国存货销售比仍然接近历史最低水平。
“我们没有也不能低估最后一种情形的可能性。而且，虽然我们预计2023年的某个时候会发生更大范围的经济放缓，但我们认为目前影响费率的因素是短期性的，”Chan补充道。
[The air cargo market continues to soften on higher capacity and sluggish demand, but the overall picture is very nuanced even as bellyhold capacity is returning to the market.
Thomas Mack, Global Head of Air Freight, DHL Global Forwarding expects air freight markets to tighten later this year, and urges a sense of caution as the peak season approaches.
“The world enjoyed some breathing room during the months of June and July and we do not expect a sudden surge in demand during this year’s peak season too,” he said, noting that DHL’s July Airfreight State of the Industry is forecasting that the softened demand across trade lanes in the coming months, especially out of Asia towards the U.S. and Europe will continue.
There is ample scope for a market upturn later in the year if – and it’s a big if - economic headwinds ease.
General air cargo market volumes fell eight percent year-over-year in May as war in Ukraine, soaring inflation, stock market declines and Covid-related restrictions in China battered business confidence and shipment levels, according to CLIVE Data Services. June followed a similar trajectory with volumes down eight percent year-on-year and down by seven percent compared to June 2019.
Mr. Subhas Menon, Director General of the Association of Asia Pacific Airlines, said that after a buoyant 2021, air cargo demand was now encountering more challenges, with “export orders facing downward pressures driven by waning business confidence levels amid an increasingly cloudy global economic outlook”.
Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific, noted that the looming presence of inflation, on top of the ongoing Covid-19 restrictions in China, are creating a sense of caution towards the market outlook for the second half of 2022. “Ongoing issues such as the energy crisis in Europe and labor shortages continue to affect the supply chain, bringing much uncertainty for the months ahead,” he added.] => 航空货运市场继续疲软，表现为运力增强但需求低迷，但即使腹舱运力已经恢复，总体状况仍没有发生太大变化。
DGF空运部全球主管Thomas Mack预计今年晚些时候航空货运市场将发生紧缩，并敦促业界随着旺季的临近要保持谨慎。
“今年6月和7月，全世界获得了一些喘息的空间，而我们预计今年旺季期间需求量也不会激增，”他说，还提到DHL的《7月航空货运行业状况报告》预测未来几个月内各贸易航线的需求量将持续呈现疲软态势，尤其是从亚洲到美国和欧洲的航线。
如果今年晚些时候经济不利因素能够缓解，那么仍有充足的市场回升空间――而且是很大的空间。
CLIVE数据服务公司称，由于俄乌战争、通胀率高涨、股市下跌和中国新冠肺炎疫情限制措施影响了企业信心和运输水平，今年5月航空货运市场总容量同比下降了8％。6月航空货运市场总容量的发展轨迹与之类似，同比下降了8％，与2019年6月相比下降了7％。
亚太航空公司协会总干事Subhas Menon先生称，经过2021年的增长之后，航空货运需求现在面临更多挑战，其中“由于全球经济前景越来越不明朗，出口订单在企业信心水平下降的驱动下面临下行压力”。
DGF亚太区首席执行官Kelvin Leung指出，除中国持续的新冠肺炎疫情限制措施外，通胀的压力也让业界谨慎看待2022年下半年的市场前景。“欧洲能源危机和劳动力短缺等持续性问题将继续对供应链造成影响，给未来几个月带来了很大的不确定性，”他补充道。
[wysiwyg] => wysiwyg
[outbound_box] => outbound_box
[While air capacity saw some return with reduced demand from lockdowns, the approaching peak season and economic outlook spell further uncertainty. The air cargo market continues to soften on higher capacity and sluggish demand, but the overall picture is very nuanced even as bellyhold capacity is returning to the market.
Thomas Mack, Global Head of Air Freight, DHL Global Forwarding expects air freight markets to tighten later this year, and urges a sense of caution as the peak season approaches.
“The world enjoyed some breathing room during the months of June and July and we do not expect a sudden surge in demand during this year’s peak season too,” he said, noting that DHL’s July Airfreight State of the Industry is forecasting that the softened demand across trade lanes in the coming months, especially out of Asia towards the U.S. and Europe will continue.
There is ample scope for a market upturn later in the year if – and it’s a big if – economic headwinds ease.
General air cargo market volumes fell eight percent year-over-year in May as war in Ukraine, soaring inflation, stock market declines and Covid-related restrictions in China battered business confidence and shipment levels, according to CLIVE Data Services. June followed a similar trajectory with volumes down eight percent year-on-year and down by seven percent compared to June 2019.
Mr. Subhas Menon, Director General of the Association of Asia Pacific Airlines, said that after a buoyant 2021, air cargo demand was now encountering more challenges, with “export orders facing downward pressures driven by waning business confidence levels amid an increasingly cloudy global economic outlook”.
Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific, noted that the looming presence of inflation, on top of the ongoing Covid-19 restrictions in China, are creating a sense of caution towards the market outlook for the second half of 2022. “Ongoing issues such as the energy crisis in Europe and labor shortages continue to affect the supply chain, bringing much uncertainty for the months ahead,” he added.
RELATED ARTICLESPotential economic headwinds add stress to supply chainDespite softened rates from a Q2 slowdown, uncertainties loom heavily.Capacity up
More positively, freight options are increasing as bellyhold space returns to the market, albeit capacity remains lower now than pre-Covid. Available cargo capacity in June 2022 rose six percent compared to June 2021. This is the result of additional summer passenger flights entering the market as travel restrictions are removed around the world. However, total capacity remained 11 percent lower than in June 2019.
According to the July DHL Air Freight Market Update, while overall capacity in July was up 18 percent year-on-year, passenger capacity was almost 19 percent lower than in pre-Covid July 2019.
Delicate balance
Capacity additions and the deteriorating economic picture combined to push rates downwards in June, especially on the North Atlantic where rates have dropped 30 percent over the last three months, according to CLIVE. DHL’s July Airfreight Market Update also notes that general airfreight rates in June this year were still 120 percent higher than in June 2019 and 23 percent higher than in June 2021.
Niall van de Wouw, founder of CLIVE and Chief Airfreight Officer at Xeneta, said the softening Atlantic market, where more capacity has been added this summer, could have wider repercussions even on ex Asia lanes to the US and Europe where flights are currently “relatively full” if carriers transfer capacity away from the Atlantic lanes.
“Will carriers deploy their freighters to other markets in Asia Pacific, Africa, or South America? We are already seeing some freighter redeployment in the market,” said van de Wouw.
“But even on the trans-Atlantic trade land, there are still shortages of space. And globally demand for main deck capacity remains high,” added Mack.
RELATED ARTICLESTemper expectations of quick recovery after end of China lockdownsFreight rates are expected to normalize in 2023, but unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels.Explaining rate declines
Bruce Chan, Director & Senior Analyst, Global Logistics & Future Mobility Equity Research at Stifel, admitted in a report for the Baltic Exchange that Stifel had expected rates to rise in June. Explaining the downturn, he noted four factors.
First, fuel prices tapered steadily during the month, tempering increases in base rates.
Secondly, the third quarter is typically the second-slowest air freight shipping season and “we are currently entering the normal late-summer lull before the onset of the holiday peak” so the rates drop could also be partly seasonal.
“The third possible explanation is that the post-shutdown manufacturing ramp-up in China has been, and will be, more gradual than we expected,” said Chan.
Finally, Chan said there was also the possibility that demand was starting to moderate on a long-term basis. “Are we seeing signs that the recessionary bogeyman has arrived?” he added. “Airfreight volumes and airfreight rates are likely a leading indicator, in our view, but we don’t have clear evidence to support that thesis,” noted Chan.
Annualized U.S. GDP contracted 1.6 percent in 1Q22, for example, but unemployment and absolute consumer spending figures have been more resilient, and U.S. inventory-to-sales ratios remain near all-time lows.
“We don’t, and cannot, discount the possibility of the last scenario. And, while we do expect a broader slowdown at some point in 2023, we believe that what is currently impacting rates is shorter-term in nature,” added Chan.
RELATED ARTICLESDHL Air Freight State of the Industry – July 2022Find out the latest developments of the global air freight market in this monthly analysis by DHL Global Forwarding.] =>
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[cautious-approach-peak-season-despite-brief-respite] => cautious-approach-peak-season-despite-brief-respite
[potential-economic-headwinds-add-stress-to-supply-chain-key-image] => potential-economic-headwinds-add-stress-to-supply-chain-key-image
[Potential economic headwinds add stress to supply chain] => Potential economic headwinds add stress to supply chain
[temper-expectations-end-of-china-lockdowns-key-image] => temper-expectations-end-of-china-lockdowns-key-image
[Temper expectations of quick recovery after end of China lockdowns] => Temper expectations of quick recovery after end of China lockdowns
[AFR-July-2022-key-image] => AFR-July-2022-key-image
[DHL Air Freight State of the Industry – July 2022] => DHL Air Freight State of the Industry – July 2022
[cautious-approach-peak-season-despite-brief-respite-single-column] => cautious-approach-peak-season-despite-brief-respite-single-column
[Adopt cautious approach ahead of peak season despite brief respite Meta] => Adopt cautious approach ahead of peak season despite brief respite Meta
[cautious-approach-peak-season-despite-brief-respite-key-image] => cautious-approach-peak-season-despite-brief-respite-key-image
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