Array
(
[derick] => Array
(
[[]] =>
[Air freight situation expected to improve with China’s re-opening] => 随着中国重新放开，空运状况有望改善
[Cautious optimism towards improving export demand, but caution advised amidst uncertainty of further pandemic restrictions and expected recession.] => 对出口需求提升表示谨慎乐观，但鉴于进一步疫情限制措施和预期经济衰退的不确定性，仍需保持谨慎
[A balancing act between volumes and freight rates
The addition of significant extra capacity on routes to and from China, however, could put further downward pressure on air freight pricing. Reports suggest that rates were softening even ahead of factory closures from 22 January for the Lunar New Year; this is usually when market demand sees a mini-spike as shippers urgently move products. This followed the weak peak season in the fourth quarter of 2022.
Recovery is expected to start from relatively healthy foundations, according to the latest analysis by CLIVE Data Services. However, the analyst firm noted that comparing the market at the end of 2022 versus pre-pandemic December 2019 was akin to comparing apples with pears.
“It would be easy to take a pessimistic view of the global air cargo market’s downturn in 2022, but this would ignore where it has come from. There is little use comparing it to the same time last year because then we had no Ukraine conflict, no high energy prices, no soaring interest rates, nor the impact of the subsequent cost-of-living pressures,” said Niall van de Wouw, Chief Airfreight Officer at Xeneta.
In December 2022, air cargo volumes fell eight percent year-on-year, the eighth consecutive month of lower demand. Volumes were down 13 percent compared to December 2019, even as capacity reached 93 percent of the 2019 level.
With all factors considered, CLIVE noted that airlines are still achieving rates that are 75 percent higher than pre-pandemic level.
“That indicates the glass is very much still half full. The difference now is that there’s less pressure if you’re a shipper, even though you’re still paying more. In terms of the long-term sustainability of the air cargo supply chain, this will help.”] =>
运输量与运费费率之间的平衡行动
然而，往返中国的航线上大量额外运力的增加有可能给空运运费定价带来进一步的下行压力。报道称，甚至在1月22日工厂因为春节长假停工之前，费率已经开始疲软；这通常是因为发货人紧急转移商品造成的市场需求小幅增长。在此之前的2022年第四季度只是一个平常的运输旺季。
根据CLIVE数据服务公司的最新分析，预计将在相对健康的基础上开始复苏。然而，这家分析公司指出，将与2022年底的市场状况与疫情爆发前的2019年12月相比，就像是将苹果与梨子相比。
“对于2022年全球航空货运市场的低迷，人们很容易产生悲观的看法，但这样做会忽略这种情况产生的源头。与去年同期相比几乎没有意义，因为当时还没有俄乌冲突，没有高企的能源价格，没有飙升的汇率，也没有后来生活成本压力的影响，”Xeneta公司首席空运官Niall van de Wouw说道。
2022年12月，航空货运量同比下降8％，这也是连续第八个月需求处于低位。与2019年12月相比，即使运力达到了2019年水平的93％，运输量依然降低了13％。
在考虑各种因素的情况下，CLIVE公司指出，航空公司的运费费率仍比疫情前水平高出75％。
“这表明在很大程度上存在运力过剩的情况。现在的区别在于，如果你是发货人，即使你仍然需要支付更多运费，你也不会有太大的压力。从航空货运供应链的长期可持续性来看，这是有帮助的。”
[Optimism for returning balance amidst market rebound
Neil Wilson, Editor of TAC Index, said carriers and other stakeholders had enjoyed some respite from jet fuel prices last year. These tapered off from the 100 percent-plus year-on-year increases seen earlier in 2022 to Platt’s reporting a 41.8 percent year-on-year increase across the entire calendar year.
“A calmer fuel market may ease things for carriers, but most economists and macro commentators are still expecting a recession in 2023 across much of the world economy,” added Wilson.
Looking forward in his latest Baltic Exchange analysis, Bruce Chan, Director and Senior Research Analyst covering Global Logistics and Future Mobility, Stifel, said further rates softening “is both possible and likely” as supply and demand find equilibrium in air cargo markets.
DHL’s January Airfreight State of the Industry noted that the demand side of the air cargo equation is still seeing a shift in traffic from air to ocean freight, where the latter is seeing more manageable freight costs.
The upside is a return of balance between air freight capacity and demand. “We do see the market changing back to pre-pandemic behavior, as continued soft export volumes have relieved the pressure on air freight capacity,” added Leung.
For its part, Nomura’s leading index of Asia ex-Japan’s aggregate exports, continues to dip, with its latest reading sliding to 79.6.
However, Nomura does expect an improving outlook for exports ex-Asia 2023 progresses. “In our base case, Asia’s export cycle reaches its trough in Q2 and rebounds in H2, but with a more rapid China reopening, European economies demonstrating some resiliency and an increasing likelihood that the Fed could soon pause its rate hiking cycle, the risk to our base case is that Asia’s exports rebound a little earlier, in Q2.”] =>
在市场反弹中对恢复平衡的乐观态度
航空货运数据公司TAC Index编辑Neil Wilson称，去年的航空燃油价格让运输公司及其他利益相关方获得了喘息的机会。价格的同比增长从2022年早些时候的100％以上，下降到Platt报道的整个日历年度的41.8％。
“较为平静的燃油市场可以让运输公司的日子好过，但大部分经济学家和宏观评论家仍然预计2023年世界经济有很大一部分将经历衰退，”Wilson补充道。
Stifel金融公司全球物流和未来出行主管兼高级研究分析师Bruce Chan在波罗的海交易所的最新分析文章中进行了展望，认为随着航空货运市场达到供需平衡，费率进一步下降“不仅有可能而且很可能发生”。
敦豪1月《航空货运行业现状报告》指出，航空货运平衡的需求侧仍在发生从空运到海运的转变，其中后者的运费更容易应对。
有利的一面在于航空货运运力与需求恢复了平衡。“我们确实发现市场回到了疫情前的状态，因为出口量的持续疲软缓解了航空货运运力面临的压力，”Leung补充道。
就其本身而言，野村证券除日本外亚洲总出口量领先指数持续下行，最新数值已经下滑到79.6。
然而，野村证券并未预计2023年除亚洲外的全球出口前景会有所好转。“在我们的基本情形中，亚洲出口周期将在今年第二季度年到达低谷并在下半年反弹，但随着中国更快重新放开，欧洲经济体表现出一定的韧性，加上美联储很快暂停加息周期的可能性越来越大，我们的基本情形面临的风险在于亚洲出口的反弹将略微提前，也就是在第二季度。”
[The air cargo industry took a massive strike back towards post-Covid normality in January when China reopened for international travel.
China removed quarantine measures for inbound travelers and resumed passports issuance for Chinese mainland residents in January.
The moves are expected to kickstart global aviation markets during 2023, not least because, unlike in many other countries, Chinese airports, carriers and ground handling companies have retained staff and have been readying operations for a swift resumption of pre-Covid norms.
According to McKinsey, less than one-fifth of China's widebody fleet of about 500 planes was still in storage in the early weeks of 2023. Most planes had remained active on domestic routes but were primed to resume international operations.
Steve Saxon, a Shenzhen-based McKinsey partner, told the Loadstar Podcast that many Chinese carriers had retained and retrained pilots and cabin crew during the pandemic, while airports retained around 90 percent of staff. These steps would ensure the rapid scale-up of operations.
A Lunar New Year unlike previous years
For years, the long Lunar New Year breaks have put a soft reset on the balance between demand and capacity. Factory closures would mean a reduced export level, and in the face of a capacity crunch, would provide some breathing room for the markets.
This year, however, saw workers returning a week earlier than last year, as factories resumed operations after the weeklong break. “With China’s active approach towards reopening borders and trade lanes, and factory production lines’ return to normalcy, a degree of optimism is expected,” said Kelvin Leung, Asia Pacific CEO of DHL Global Forwarding.
The resumption of international flights by both Chinese and international carriers on routes to and from China is set to vastly increase shipment options for shippers. “The increased bellyhold capacity from resumed passenger flights are a welcomed change at the start of the year, to meet an expected increase in exports and import demands,” added Leung. The situation is set to improve further, but Leung noted that flights will only fully resume next year.] => 今年1月，随着中国重新放开国际旅行，航空货运行业朝着疫情后回归正常的方向迅速反弹。
今年1月，中国解除了入境旅客的隔离措施，重新开始为内地居民签发护照。
预计这些举措将在2023年为全球航空市场提供强大助力，特别是因为，与很多其他国家不同，中国机场、运输公司和地勤公司留住了员工，并且准备迅速恢复疫情前的常态运营。
据麦肯锡公司称，2023年最初的几周内，中国全部约500架宽体飞机当中只有不到五分之一仍然停放在机库里。大多数飞机一直活跃在国内航线上，但已经准备恢复国际业务。
目前在深圳的麦肯锡公司合伙人Steve Saxon在Loadstar播客上表示，很多家中国运输公司在疫情期间留住了飞行员和机舱工作人员并对他们重新进行了培训，而各机场留住了大约90％的员工。这些举措将确保业务的快速扩展。
与往年不同的春节
多年来，春节长假以温和的方式恢复了需求与运力之间的平衡。工厂停工意味着出口水平下降，而当运力即将达到极限时，会给市场留出一些喘息的余地。
然而，随着一周假期结束后工厂复工，工人们今年比去年提前一周返回工厂。“由于中国积极地重新开放边境和贸易通道，而且工厂生产线恢复正常运转，人们有理由保持一定的乐观，”敦豪全球货运亚太区首席执行官Kelvin Leung说道。
中国和国际运输公司恢复往返中国航线的国际航班一定会极大地增加发货人的可选运输方案。“客运航班恢复后增加的机腹货仓运力是今年年初的一个可喜的转变，可以满足进出口需求的预期增长，”Leung补充道。形势肯定会进一步好转，但Leung也提到，航班数量只有到明年才会完全恢复正常。
[wysiwyg] => wysiwyg
[outbound_box] => outbound_box
[Cautious optimism towards improving export demand, but caution advised amidst uncertainty of further pandemic restrictions and expected recession. The air cargo industry took a massive strike back towards post-Covid normality in January when China reopened for international travel.
China removed quarantine measures for inbound travelers and resumed passports issuance for Chinese mainland residents in January.
The moves are expected to kickstart global aviation markets during 2023, not least because, unlike in many other countries, Chinese airports, carriers and ground handling companies have retained staff and have been readying operations for a swift resumption of pre-Covid norms.
According to McKinsey, less than one-fifth of China’s widebody fleet of about 500 planes was still in storage in the early weeks of 2023. Most planes had remained active on domestic routes but were primed to resume international operations.
Steve Saxon, a Shenzhen-based McKinsey partner, told the Loadstar Podcast that many Chinese carriers had retained and retrained pilots and cabin crew during the pandemic, while airports retained around 90 percent of staff. These steps would ensure the rapid scale-up of operations.
A Lunar New Year unlike previous years
For years, the long Lunar New Year breaks have put a soft reset on the balance between demand and capacity. Factory closures would mean a reduced export level, and in the face of a capacity crunch, would provide some breathing room for the markets.
This year, however, saw workers returning a week earlier than last year, as factories resumed operations after the weeklong break. “With China’s active approach towards reopening borders and trade lanes, and factory production lines’ return to normalcy, a degree of optimism is expected,” said Kelvin Leung, Asia Pacific CEO of DHL Global Forwarding.
The resumption of international flights by both Chinese and international carriers on routes to and from China is set to vastly increase shipment options for shippers. “The increased bellyhold capacity from resumed passenger flights are a welcomed change at the start of the year, to meet an expected increase in exports and import demands,” added Leung. The situation is set to improve further, but Leung noted that flights will only fully resume next year.
RELATED ARTICLESDHL Air Freight State of the Industry – January 2023Find out the latest developments of the global air freight market in this monthly analysis by DHL Global Forwarding.A balancing act between volumes and freight rates
The addition of significant extra capacity on routes to and from China, however, could put further downward pressure on air freight pricing. Reports suggest that rates were softening even ahead of factory closures from 22 January for the Lunar New Year; this is usually when market demand sees a mini-spike as shippers urgently move products. This followed the weak peak season in the fourth quarter of 2022.
Recovery is expected to start from relatively healthy foundations, according to the latest analysis by CLIVE Data Services. However, the analyst firm noted that comparing the market at the end of 2022 versus pre-pandemic December 2019 was akin to comparing apples with pears.
“It would be easy to take a pessimistic view of the global air cargo market’s downturn in 2022, but this would ignore where it has come from. There is little use comparing it to the same time last year because then we had no Ukraine conflict, no high energy prices, no soaring interest rates, nor the impact of the subsequent cost-of-living pressures,” said Niall van de Wouw, Chief Airfreight Officer at Xeneta.
In December 2022, air cargo volumes fell eight percent year-on-year, the eighth consecutive month of lower demand. Volumes were down 13 percent compared to December 2019, even as capacity reached 93 percent of the 2019 level.
With all factors considered, CLIVE noted that airlines are still achieving rates that are 75 percent higher than pre-pandemic level.
“That indicates the glass is very much still half full. The difference now is that there’s less pressure if you’re a shipper, even though you’re still paying more. In terms of the long-term sustainability of the air cargo supply chain, this will help.”
RELATED ARTICLESPositive yet cautious outlook for ocean freight in the coming monthsSupply chain disruptions could still happen with expected factory closures in China and ongoing port congestions.Optimism for returning balance amidst market rebound
Neil Wilson, Editor of TAC Index, said carriers and other stakeholders had enjoyed some respite from jet fuel prices last year. These tapered off from the 100 percent-plus year-on-year increases seen earlier in 2022 to Platt’s reporting a 41.8 percent year-on-year increase across the entire calendar year.
“A calmer fuel market may ease things for carriers, but most economists and macro commentators are still expecting a recession in 2023 across much of the world economy,” added Wilson.
Looking forward in his latest Baltic Exchange analysis, Bruce Chan, Director and Senior Research Analyst covering Global Logistics and Future Mobility, Stifel, said further rates softening “is both possible and likely” as supply and demand find equilibrium in air cargo markets.
DHL’s January Airfreight State of the Industry noted that the demand side of the air cargo equation is still seeing a shift in traffic from air to ocean freight, where the latter is seeing more manageable freight costs.
The upside is a return of balance between air freight capacity and demand. “We do see the market changing back to pre-pandemic behavior, as continued soft export volumes have relieved the pressure on air freight capacity,” added Leung.
For its part, Nomura’s leading index of Asia ex-Japan’s aggregate exports, continues to dip, with its latest reading sliding to 79.6.
However, Nomura does expect an improving outlook for exports ex-Asia 2023 progresses. “In our base case, Asia’s export cycle reaches its trough in Q2 and rebounds in H2, but with a more rapid China reopening, European economies demonstrating some resiliency and an increasing likelihood that the Fed could soon pause its rate hiking cycle, the risk to our base case is that Asia’s exports rebound a little earlier, in Q2.”] =>
[] =>
[air-freight-situation-expected-improve-china-re-opening] => air-freight-situation-expected-improve-china-re-opening
[AFR-Jan-2023-key-image] => AFR-Jan-2023-key-image
[positive-cautious-outlook-ocean-freight-key-image] => positive-cautious-outlook-ocean-freight-key-image
[air-freight-situation-expected-improve-china-re-opening-single-column] => air-freight-situation-expected-improve-china-re-opening-single-column
[air-freight-situation-expected-improve-china-re-opening-key-image] => air-freight-situation-expected-improve-china-re-opening-key-image
)
[$value] => The air cargo industry took a massive strike back towards post-Covid normality in January when China reopened for international travel.
China removed quarantine measures for inbound travelers and resumed passports issuance for Chinese mainland residents in January.
The moves are expected to kickstart global aviation markets during 2023, not least because, unlike in many other countries, Chinese airports, carriers and ground handling companies have retained staff and have been readying operations for a swift resumption of pre-Covid norms.
According to McKinsey, less than one-fifth of China's widebody fleet of about 500 planes was still in storage in the early weeks of 2023. Most planes had remained active on domestic routes but were primed to resume international operations.
Steve Saxon, a Shenzhen-based McKinsey partner, told the Loadstar Podcast that many Chinese carriers had retained and retrained pilots and cabin crew during the pandemic, while airports retained around 90 percent of staff. These steps would ensure the rapid scale-up of operations.
A Lunar New Year unlike previous years
For years, the long Lunar New Year breaks have put a soft reset on the balance between demand and capacity. Factory closures would mean a reduced export level, and in the face of a capacity crunch, would provide some breathing room for the markets.
This year, however, saw workers returning a week earlier than last year, as factories resumed operations after the weeklong break. “With China’s active approach towards reopening borders and trade lanes, and factory production lines’ return to normalcy, a degree of optimism is expected,” said Kelvin Leung, Asia Pacific CEO of DHL Global Forwarding.
The resumption of international flights by both Chinese and international carriers on routes to and from China is set to vastly increase shipment options for shippers. “The increased bellyhold capacity from resumed passenger flights are a welcomed change at the start of the year, to meet an expected increase in exports and import demands,” added Leung. The situation is set to improve further, but Leung noted that flights will only fully resume next year.
)
Array
(
[derick] => Array
(
[[]] =>
[Air freight situation expected to improve with China’s re-opening] => 随着中国重新放开，空运状况有望改善
[Cautious optimism towards improving export demand, but caution advised amidst uncertainty of further pandemic restrictions and expected recession.] => 对出口需求提升表示谨慎乐观，但鉴于进一步疫情限制措施和预期经济衰退的不确定性，仍需保持谨慎
[A balancing act between volumes and freight rates
The addition of significant extra capacity on routes to and from China, however, could put further downward pressure on air freight pricing. Reports suggest that rates were softening even ahead of factory closures from 22 January for the Lunar New Year; this is usually when market demand sees a mini-spike as shippers urgently move products. This followed the weak peak season in the fourth quarter of 2022.
Recovery is expected to start from relatively healthy foundations, according to the latest analysis by CLIVE Data Services. However, the analyst firm noted that comparing the market at the end of 2022 versus pre-pandemic December 2019 was akin to comparing apples with pears.
“It would be easy to take a pessimistic view of the global air cargo market’s downturn in 2022, but this would ignore where it has come from. There is little use comparing it to the same time last year because then we had no Ukraine conflict, no high energy prices, no soaring interest rates, nor the impact of the subsequent cost-of-living pressures,” said Niall van de Wouw, Chief Airfreight Officer at Xeneta.
In December 2022, air cargo volumes fell eight percent year-on-year, the eighth consecutive month of lower demand. Volumes were down 13 percent compared to December 2019, even as capacity reached 93 percent of the 2019 level.
With all factors considered, CLIVE noted that airlines are still achieving rates that are 75 percent higher than pre-pandemic level.
“That indicates the glass is very much still half full. The difference now is that there’s less pressure if you’re a shipper, even though you’re still paying more. In terms of the long-term sustainability of the air cargo supply chain, this will help.”] =>
运输量与运费费率之间的平衡行动
然而，往返中国的航线上大量额外运力的增加有可能给空运运费定价带来进一步的下行压力。报道称，甚至在1月22日工厂因为春节长假停工之前，费率已经开始疲软；这通常是因为发货人紧急转移商品造成的市场需求小幅增长。在此之前的2022年第四季度只是一个平常的运输旺季。
根据CLIVE数据服务公司的最新分析，预计将在相对健康的基础上开始复苏。然而，这家分析公司指出，将与2022年底的市场状况与疫情爆发前的2019年12月相比，就像是将苹果与梨子相比。
“对于2022年全球航空货运市场的低迷，人们很容易产生悲观的看法，但这样做会忽略这种情况产生的源头。与去年同期相比几乎没有意义，因为当时还没有俄乌冲突，没有高企的能源价格，没有飙升的汇率，也没有后来生活成本压力的影响，”Xeneta公司首席空运官Niall van de Wouw说道。
2022年12月，航空货运量同比下降8％，这也是连续第八个月需求处于低位。与2019年12月相比，即使运力达到了2019年水平的93％，运输量依然降低了13％。
在考虑各种因素的情况下，CLIVE公司指出，航空公司的运费费率仍比疫情前水平高出75％。
“这表明在很大程度上存在运力过剩的情况。现在的区别在于，如果你是发货人，即使你仍然需要支付更多运费，你也不会有太大的压力。从航空货运供应链的长期可持续性来看，这是有帮助的。”
[Optimism for returning balance amidst market rebound
Neil Wilson, Editor of TAC Index, said carriers and other stakeholders had enjoyed some respite from jet fuel prices last year. These tapered off from the 100 percent-plus year-on-year increases seen earlier in 2022 to Platt’s reporting a 41.8 percent year-on-year increase across the entire calendar year.
“A calmer fuel market may ease things for carriers, but most economists and macro commentators are still expecting a recession in 2023 across much of the world economy,” added Wilson.
Looking forward in his latest Baltic Exchange analysis, Bruce Chan, Director and Senior Research Analyst covering Global Logistics and Future Mobility, Stifel, said further rates softening “is both possible and likely” as supply and demand find equilibrium in air cargo markets.
DHL’s January Airfreight State of the Industry noted that the demand side of the air cargo equation is still seeing a shift in traffic from air to ocean freight, where the latter is seeing more manageable freight costs.
The upside is a return of balance between air freight capacity and demand. “We do see the market changing back to pre-pandemic behavior, as continued soft export volumes have relieved the pressure on air freight capacity,” added Leung.
For its part, Nomura’s leading index of Asia ex-Japan’s aggregate exports, continues to dip, with its latest reading sliding to 79.6.
However, Nomura does expect an improving outlook for exports ex-Asia 2023 progresses. “In our base case, Asia’s export cycle reaches its trough in Q2 and rebounds in H2, but with a more rapid China reopening, European economies demonstrating some resiliency and an increasing likelihood that the Fed could soon pause its rate hiking cycle, the risk to our base case is that Asia’s exports rebound a little earlier, in Q2.”] =>
在市场反弹中对恢复平衡的乐观态度
航空货运数据公司TAC Index编辑Neil Wilson称，去年的航空燃油价格让运输公司及其他利益相关方获得了喘息的机会。价格的同比增长从2022年早些时候的100％以上，下降到Platt报道的整个日历年度的41.8％。
“较为平静的燃油市场可以让运输公司的日子好过，但大部分经济学家和宏观评论家仍然预计2023年世界经济有很大一部分将经历衰退，”Wilson补充道。
Stifel金融公司全球物流和未来出行主管兼高级研究分析师Bruce Chan在波罗的海交易所的最新分析文章中进行了展望，认为随着航空货运市场达到供需平衡，费率进一步下降“不仅有可能而且很可能发生”。
敦豪1月《航空货运行业现状报告》指出，航空货运平衡的需求侧仍在发生从空运到海运的转变，其中后者的运费更容易应对。
有利的一面在于航空货运运力与需求恢复了平衡。“我们确实发现市场回到了疫情前的状态，因为出口量的持续疲软缓解了航空货运运力面临的压力，”Leung补充道。
就其本身而言，野村证券除日本外亚洲总出口量领先指数持续下行，最新数值已经下滑到79.6。
然而，野村证券并未预计2023年除亚洲外的全球出口前景会有所好转。“在我们的基本情形中，亚洲出口周期将在今年第二季度年到达低谷并在下半年反弹，但随着中国更快重新放开，欧洲经济体表现出一定的韧性，加上美联储很快暂停加息周期的可能性越来越大，我们的基本情形面临的风险在于亚洲出口的反弹将略微提前，也就是在第二季度。”
[The air cargo industry took a massive strike back towards post-Covid normality in January when China reopened for international travel.
China removed quarantine measures for inbound travelers and resumed passports issuance for Chinese mainland residents in January.
The moves are expected to kickstart global aviation markets during 2023, not least because, unlike in many other countries, Chinese airports, carriers and ground handling companies have retained staff and have been readying operations for a swift resumption of pre-Covid norms.
According to McKinsey, less than one-fifth of China's widebody fleet of about 500 planes was still in storage in the early weeks of 2023. Most planes had remained active on domestic routes but were primed to resume international operations.
Steve Saxon, a Shenzhen-based McKinsey partner, told the Loadstar Podcast that many Chinese carriers had retained and retrained pilots and cabin crew during the pandemic, while airports retained around 90 percent of staff. These steps would ensure the rapid scale-up of operations.
A Lunar New Year unlike previous years
For years, the long Lunar New Year breaks have put a soft reset on the balance between demand and capacity. Factory closures would mean a reduced export level, and in the face of a capacity crunch, would provide some breathing room for the markets.
This year, however, saw workers returning a week earlier than last year, as factories resumed operations after the weeklong break. “With China’s active approach towards reopening borders and trade lanes, and factory production lines’ return to normalcy, a degree of optimism is expected,” said Kelvin Leung, Asia Pacific CEO of DHL Global Forwarding.
The resumption of international flights by both Chinese and international carriers on routes to and from China is set to vastly increase shipment options for shippers. “The increased bellyhold capacity from resumed passenger flights are a welcomed change at the start of the year, to meet an expected increase in exports and import demands,” added Leung. The situation is set to improve further, but Leung noted that flights will only fully resume next year.] => 今年1月，随着中国重新放开国际旅行，航空货运行业朝着疫情后回归正常的方向迅速反弹。
今年1月，中国解除了入境旅客的隔离措施，重新开始为内地居民签发护照。
预计这些举措将在2023年为全球航空市场提供强大助力，特别是因为，与很多其他国家不同，中国机场、运输公司和地勤公司留住了员工，并且准备迅速恢复疫情前的常态运营。
据麦肯锡公司称，2023年最初的几周内，中国全部约500架宽体飞机当中只有不到五分之一仍然停放在机库里。大多数飞机一直活跃在国内航线上，但已经准备恢复国际业务。
目前在深圳的麦肯锡公司合伙人Steve Saxon在Loadstar播客上表示，很多家中国运输公司在疫情期间留住了飞行员和机舱工作人员并对他们重新进行了培训，而各机场留住了大约90％的员工。这些举措将确保业务的快速扩展。
与往年不同的春节
多年来，春节长假以温和的方式恢复了需求与运力之间的平衡。工厂停工意味着出口水平下降，而当运力即将达到极限时，会给市场留出一些喘息的余地。
然而，随着一周假期结束后工厂复工，工人们今年比去年提前一周返回工厂。“由于中国积极地重新开放边境和贸易通道，而且工厂生产线恢复正常运转，人们有理由保持一定的乐观，”敦豪全球货运亚太区首席执行官Kelvin Leung说道。
中国和国际运输公司恢复往返中国航线的国际航班一定会极大地增加发货人的可选运输方案。“客运航班恢复后增加的机腹货仓运力是今年年初的一个可喜的转变，可以满足进出口需求的预期增长，”Leung补充道。形势肯定会进一步好转，但Leung也提到，航班数量只有到明年才会完全恢复正常。
[wysiwyg] => wysiwyg
[outbound_box] => outbound_box
[Cautious optimism towards improving export demand, but caution advised amidst uncertainty of further pandemic restrictions and expected recession. The air cargo industry took a massive strike back towards post-Covid normality in January when China reopened for international travel.
China removed quarantine measures for inbound travelers and resumed passports issuance for Chinese mainland residents in January.
The moves are expected to kickstart global aviation markets during 2023, not least because, unlike in many other countries, Chinese airports, carriers and ground handling companies have retained staff and have been readying operations for a swift resumption of pre-Covid norms.
According to McKinsey, less than one-fifth of China’s widebody fleet of about 500 planes was still in storage in the early weeks of 2023. Most planes had remained active on domestic routes but were primed to resume international operations.
Steve Saxon, a Shenzhen-based McKinsey partner, told the Loadstar Podcast that many Chinese carriers had retained and retrained pilots and cabin crew during the pandemic, while airports retained around 90 percent of staff. These steps would ensure the rapid scale-up of operations.
A Lunar New Year unlike previous years
For years, the long Lunar New Year breaks have put a soft reset on the balance between demand and capacity. Factory closures would mean a reduced export level, and in the face of a capacity crunch, would provide some breathing room for the markets.
This year, however, saw workers returning a week earlier than last year, as factories resumed operations after the weeklong break. “With China’s active approach towards reopening borders and trade lanes, and factory production lines’ return to normalcy, a degree of optimism is expected,” said Kelvin Leung, Asia Pacific CEO of DHL Global Forwarding.
The resumption of international flights by both Chinese and international carriers on routes to and from China is set to vastly increase shipment options for shippers. “The increased bellyhold capacity from resumed passenger flights are a welcomed change at the start of the year, to meet an expected increase in exports and import demands,” added Leung. The situation is set to improve further, but Leung noted that flights will only fully resume next year.
RELATED ARTICLESDHL Air Freight State of the Industry – January 2023Find out the latest developments of the global air freight market in this monthly analysis by DHL Global Forwarding.A balancing act between volumes and freight rates
The addition of significant extra capacity on routes to and from China, however, could put further downward pressure on air freight pricing. Reports suggest that rates were softening even ahead of factory closures from 22 January for the Lunar New Year; this is usually when market demand sees a mini-spike as shippers urgently move products. This followed the weak peak season in the fourth quarter of 2022.
Recovery is expected to start from relatively healthy foundations, according to the latest analysis by CLIVE Data Services. However, the analyst firm noted that comparing the market at the end of 2022 versus pre-pandemic December 2019 was akin to comparing apples with pears.
“It would be easy to take a pessimistic view of the global air cargo market’s downturn in 2022, but this would ignore where it has come from. There is little use comparing it to the same time last year because then we had no Ukraine conflict, no high energy prices, no soaring interest rates, nor the impact of the subsequent cost-of-living pressures,” said Niall van de Wouw, Chief Airfreight Officer at Xeneta.
In December 2022, air cargo volumes fell eight percent year-on-year, the eighth consecutive month of lower demand. Volumes were down 13 percent compared to December 2019, even as capacity reached 93 percent of the 2019 level.
With all factors considered, CLIVE noted that airlines are still achieving rates that are 75 percent higher than pre-pandemic level.
“That indicates the glass is very much still half full. The difference now is that there’s less pressure if you’re a shipper, even though you’re still paying more. In terms of the long-term sustainability of the air cargo supply chain, this will help.”
RELATED ARTICLESPositive yet cautious outlook for ocean freight in the coming monthsSupply chain disruptions could still happen with expected factory closures in China and ongoing port congestions.Optimism for returning balance amidst market rebound
Neil Wilson, Editor of TAC Index, said carriers and other stakeholders had enjoyed some respite from jet fuel prices last year. These tapered off from the 100 percent-plus year-on-year increases seen earlier in 2022 to Platt’s reporting a 41.8 percent year-on-year increase across the entire calendar year.
“A calmer fuel market may ease things for carriers, but most economists and macro commentators are still expecting a recession in 2023 across much of the world economy,” added Wilson.
Looking forward in his latest Baltic Exchange analysis, Bruce Chan, Director and Senior Research Analyst covering Global Logistics and Future Mobility, Stifel, said further rates softening “is both possible and likely” as supply and demand find equilibrium in air cargo markets.
DHL’s January Airfreight State of the Industry noted that the demand side of the air cargo equation is still seeing a shift in traffic from air to ocean freight, where the latter is seeing more manageable freight costs.
The upside is a return of balance between air freight capacity and demand. “We do see the market changing back to pre-pandemic behavior, as continued soft export volumes have relieved the pressure on air freight capacity,” added Leung.
For its part, Nomura’s leading index of Asia ex-Japan’s aggregate exports, continues to dip, with its latest reading sliding to 79.6.
However, Nomura does expect an improving outlook for exports ex-Asia 2023 progresses. “In our base case, Asia’s export cycle reaches its trough in Q2 and rebounds in H2, but with a more rapid China reopening, European economies demonstrating some resiliency and an increasing likelihood that the Fed could soon pause its rate hiking cycle, the risk to our base case is that Asia’s exports rebound a little earlier, in Q2.”] =>
[] =>
[air-freight-situation-expected-improve-china-re-opening] => air-freight-situation-expected-improve-china-re-opening
[AFR-Jan-2023-key-image] => AFR-Jan-2023-key-image
[positive-cautious-outlook-ocean-freight-key-image] => positive-cautious-outlook-ocean-freight-key-image
[air-freight-situation-expected-improve-china-re-opening-single-column] => air-freight-situation-expected-improve-china-re-opening-single-column
[air-freight-situation-expected-improve-china-re-opening-key-image] => air-freight-situation-expected-improve-china-re-opening-key-image
)
[$value] => A balancing act between volumes and freight rates
The addition of significant extra capacity on routes to and from China, however, could put further downward pressure on air freight pricing. Reports suggest that rates were softening even ahead of factory closures from 22 January for the Lunar New Year; this is usually when market demand sees a mini-spike as shippers urgently move products. This followed the weak peak season in the fourth quarter of 2022.
Recovery is expected to start from relatively healthy foundations, according to the latest analysis by CLIVE Data Services. However, the analyst firm noted that comparing the market at the end of 2022 versus pre-pandemic December 2019 was akin to comparing apples with pears.
“It would be easy to take a pessimistic view of the global air cargo market’s downturn in 2022, but this would ignore where it has come from. There is little use comparing it to the same time last year because then we had no Ukraine conflict, no high energy prices, no soaring interest rates, nor the impact of the subsequent cost-of-living pressures,” said Niall van de Wouw, Chief Airfreight Officer at Xeneta.
In December 2022, air cargo volumes fell eight percent year-on-year, the eighth consecutive month of lower demand. Volumes were down 13 percent compared to December 2019, even as capacity reached 93 percent of the 2019 level.
With all factors considered, CLIVE noted that airlines are still achieving rates that are 75 percent higher than pre-pandemic level.
“That indicates the glass is very much still half full. The difference now is that there’s less pressure if you’re a shipper, even though you’re still paying more. In terms of the long-term sustainability of the air cargo supply chain, this will help.”
)
Array
(
[derick] => Array
(
[[]] =>
[Air freight situation expected to improve with China’s re-opening] => 随着中国重新放开，空运状况有望改善
[Cautious optimism towards improving export demand, but caution advised amidst uncertainty of further pandemic restrictions and expected recession.] => 对出口需求提升表示谨慎乐观，但鉴于进一步疫情限制措施和预期经济衰退的不确定性，仍需保持谨慎
[A balancing act between volumes and freight rates
The addition of significant extra capacity on routes to and from China, however, could put further downward pressure on air freight pricing. Reports suggest that rates were softening even ahead of factory closures from 22 January for the Lunar New Year; this is usually when market demand sees a mini-spike as shippers urgently move products. This followed the weak peak season in the fourth quarter of 2022.
Recovery is expected to start from relatively healthy foundations, according to the latest analysis by CLIVE Data Services. However, the analyst firm noted that comparing the market at the end of 2022 versus pre-pandemic December 2019 was akin to comparing apples with pears.
“It would be easy to take a pessimistic view of the global air cargo market’s downturn in 2022, but this would ignore where it has come from. There is little use comparing it to the same time last year because then we had no Ukraine conflict, no high energy prices, no soaring interest rates, nor the impact of the subsequent cost-of-living pressures,” said Niall van de Wouw, Chief Airfreight Officer at Xeneta.
In December 2022, air cargo volumes fell eight percent year-on-year, the eighth consecutive month of lower demand. Volumes were down 13 percent compared to December 2019, even as capacity reached 93 percent of the 2019 level.
With all factors considered, CLIVE noted that airlines are still achieving rates that are 75 percent higher than pre-pandemic level.
“That indicates the glass is very much still half full. The difference now is that there’s less pressure if you’re a shipper, even though you’re still paying more. In terms of the long-term sustainability of the air cargo supply chain, this will help.”] =>
运输量与运费费率之间的平衡行动
然而，往返中国的航线上大量额外运力的增加有可能给空运运费定价带来进一步的下行压力。报道称，甚至在1月22日工厂因为春节长假停工之前，费率已经开始疲软；这通常是因为发货人紧急转移商品造成的市场需求小幅增长。在此之前的2022年第四季度只是一个平常的运输旺季。
根据CLIVE数据服务公司的最新分析，预计将在相对健康的基础上开始复苏。然而，这家分析公司指出，将与2022年底的市场状况与疫情爆发前的2019年12月相比，就像是将苹果与梨子相比。
“对于2022年全球航空货运市场的低迷，人们很容易产生悲观的看法，但这样做会忽略这种情况产生的源头。与去年同期相比几乎没有意义，因为当时还没有俄乌冲突，没有高企的能源价格，没有飙升的汇率，也没有后来生活成本压力的影响，”Xeneta公司首席空运官Niall van de Wouw说道。
2022年12月，航空货运量同比下降8％，这也是连续第八个月需求处于低位。与2019年12月相比，即使运力达到了2019年水平的93％，运输量依然降低了13％。
在考虑各种因素的情况下，CLIVE公司指出，航空公司的运费费率仍比疫情前水平高出75％。
“这表明在很大程度上存在运力过剩的情况。现在的区别在于，如果你是发货人，即使你仍然需要支付更多运费，你也不会有太大的压力。从航空货运供应链的长期可持续性来看，这是有帮助的。”
[Optimism for returning balance amidst market rebound
Neil Wilson, Editor of TAC Index, said carriers and other stakeholders had enjoyed some respite from jet fuel prices last year. These tapered off from the 100 percent-plus year-on-year increases seen earlier in 2022 to Platt’s reporting a 41.8 percent year-on-year increase across the entire calendar year.
“A calmer fuel market may ease things for carriers, but most economists and macro commentators are still expecting a recession in 2023 across much of the world economy,” added Wilson.
Looking forward in his latest Baltic Exchange analysis, Bruce Chan, Director and Senior Research Analyst covering Global Logistics and Future Mobility, Stifel, said further rates softening “is both possible and likely” as supply and demand find equilibrium in air cargo markets.
DHL’s January Airfreight State of the Industry noted that the demand side of the air cargo equation is still seeing a shift in traffic from air to ocean freight, where the latter is seeing more manageable freight costs.
The upside is a return of balance between air freight capacity and demand. “We do see the market changing back to pre-pandemic behavior, as continued soft export volumes have relieved the pressure on air freight capacity,” added Leung.
For its part, Nomura’s leading index of Asia ex-Japan’s aggregate exports, continues to dip, with its latest reading sliding to 79.6.
However, Nomura does expect an improving outlook for exports ex-Asia 2023 progresses. “In our base case, Asia’s export cycle reaches its trough in Q2 and rebounds in H2, but with a more rapid China reopening, European economies demonstrating some resiliency and an increasing likelihood that the Fed could soon pause its rate hiking cycle, the risk to our base case is that Asia’s exports rebound a little earlier, in Q2.”] =>
在市场反弹中对恢复平衡的乐观态度
航空货运数据公司TAC Index编辑Neil Wilson称，去年的航空燃油价格让运输公司及其他利益相关方获得了喘息的机会。价格的同比增长从2022年早些时候的100％以上，下降到Platt报道的整个日历年度的41.8％。
“较为平静的燃油市场可以让运输公司的日子好过，但大部分经济学家和宏观评论家仍然预计2023年世界经济有很大一部分将经历衰退，”Wilson补充道。
Stifel金融公司全球物流和未来出行主管兼高级研究分析师Bruce Chan在波罗的海交易所的最新分析文章中进行了展望，认为随着航空货运市场达到供需平衡，费率进一步下降“不仅有可能而且很可能发生”。
敦豪1月《航空货运行业现状报告》指出，航空货运平衡的需求侧仍在发生从空运到海运的转变，其中后者的运费更容易应对。
有利的一面在于航空货运运力与需求恢复了平衡。“我们确实发现市场回到了疫情前的状态，因为出口量的持续疲软缓解了航空货运运力面临的压力，”Leung补充道。
就其本身而言，野村证券除日本外亚洲总出口量领先指数持续下行，最新数值已经下滑到79.6。
然而，野村证券并未预计2023年除亚洲外的全球出口前景会有所好转。“在我们的基本情形中，亚洲出口周期将在今年第二季度年到达低谷并在下半年反弹，但随着中国更快重新放开，欧洲经济体表现出一定的韧性，加上美联储很快暂停加息周期的可能性越来越大，我们的基本情形面临的风险在于亚洲出口的反弹将略微提前，也就是在第二季度。”
[The air cargo industry took a massive strike back towards post-Covid normality in January when China reopened for international travel.
China removed quarantine measures for inbound travelers and resumed passports issuance for Chinese mainland residents in January.
The moves are expected to kickstart global aviation markets during 2023, not least because, unlike in many other countries, Chinese airports, carriers and ground handling companies have retained staff and have been readying operations for a swift resumption of pre-Covid norms.
According to McKinsey, less than one-fifth of China's widebody fleet of about 500 planes was still in storage in the early weeks of 2023. Most planes had remained active on domestic routes but were primed to resume international operations.
Steve Saxon, a Shenzhen-based McKinsey partner, told the Loadstar Podcast that many Chinese carriers had retained and retrained pilots and cabin crew during the pandemic, while airports retained around 90 percent of staff. These steps would ensure the rapid scale-up of operations.
A Lunar New Year unlike previous years
For years, the long Lunar New Year breaks have put a soft reset on the balance between demand and capacity. Factory closures would mean a reduced export level, and in the face of a capacity crunch, would provide some breathing room for the markets.
This year, however, saw workers returning a week earlier than last year, as factories resumed operations after the weeklong break. “With China’s active approach towards reopening borders and trade lanes, and factory production lines’ return to normalcy, a degree of optimism is expected,” said Kelvin Leung, Asia Pacific CEO of DHL Global Forwarding.
The resumption of international flights by both Chinese and international carriers on routes to and from China is set to vastly increase shipment options for shippers. “The increased bellyhold capacity from resumed passenger flights are a welcomed change at the start of the year, to meet an expected increase in exports and import demands,” added Leung. The situation is set to improve further, but Leung noted that flights will only fully resume next year.] => 今年1月，随着中国重新放开国际旅行，航空货运行业朝着疫情后回归正常的方向迅速反弹。
今年1月，中国解除了入境旅客的隔离措施，重新开始为内地居民签发护照。
预计这些举措将在2023年为全球航空市场提供强大助力，特别是因为，与很多其他国家不同，中国机场、运输公司和地勤公司留住了员工，并且准备迅速恢复疫情前的常态运营。
据麦肯锡公司称，2023年最初的几周内，中国全部约500架宽体飞机当中只有不到五分之一仍然停放在机库里。大多数飞机一直活跃在国内航线上，但已经准备恢复国际业务。
目前在深圳的麦肯锡公司合伙人Steve Saxon在Loadstar播客上表示，很多家中国运输公司在疫情期间留住了飞行员和机舱工作人员并对他们重新进行了培训，而各机场留住了大约90％的员工。这些举措将确保业务的快速扩展。
与往年不同的春节
多年来，春节长假以温和的方式恢复了需求与运力之间的平衡。工厂停工意味着出口水平下降，而当运力即将达到极限时，会给市场留出一些喘息的余地。
然而，随着一周假期结束后工厂复工，工人们今年比去年提前一周返回工厂。“由于中国积极地重新开放边境和贸易通道，而且工厂生产线恢复正常运转，人们有理由保持一定的乐观，”敦豪全球货运亚太区首席执行官Kelvin Leung说道。
中国和国际运输公司恢复往返中国航线的国际航班一定会极大地增加发货人的可选运输方案。“客运航班恢复后增加的机腹货仓运力是今年年初的一个可喜的转变，可以满足进出口需求的预期增长，”Leung补充道。形势肯定会进一步好转，但Leung也提到，航班数量只有到明年才会完全恢复正常。
[wysiwyg] => wysiwyg
[outbound_box] => outbound_box
[Cautious optimism towards improving export demand, but caution advised amidst uncertainty of further pandemic restrictions and expected recession. The air cargo industry took a massive strike back towards post-Covid normality in January when China reopened for international travel.
China removed quarantine measures for inbound travelers and resumed passports issuance for Chinese mainland residents in January.
The moves are expected to kickstart global aviation markets during 2023, not least because, unlike in many other countries, Chinese airports, carriers and ground handling companies have retained staff and have been readying operations for a swift resumption of pre-Covid norms.
According to McKinsey, less than one-fifth of China’s widebody fleet of about 500 planes was still in storage in the early weeks of 2023. Most planes had remained active on domestic routes but were primed to resume international operations.
Steve Saxon, a Shenzhen-based McKinsey partner, told the Loadstar Podcast that many Chinese carriers had retained and retrained pilots and cabin crew during the pandemic, while airports retained around 90 percent of staff. These steps would ensure the rapid scale-up of operations.
A Lunar New Year unlike previous years
For years, the long Lunar New Year breaks have put a soft reset on the balance between demand and capacity. Factory closures would mean a reduced export level, and in the face of a capacity crunch, would provide some breathing room for the markets.
This year, however, saw workers returning a week earlier than last year, as factories resumed operations after the weeklong break. “With China’s active approach towards reopening borders and trade lanes, and factory production lines’ return to normalcy, a degree of optimism is expected,” said Kelvin Leung, Asia Pacific CEO of DHL Global Forwarding.
The resumption of international flights by both Chinese and international carriers on routes to and from China is set to vastly increase shipment options for shippers. “The increased bellyhold capacity from resumed passenger flights are a welcomed change at the start of the year, to meet an expected increase in exports and import demands,” added Leung. The situation is set to improve further, but Leung noted that flights will only fully resume next year.
RELATED ARTICLESDHL Air Freight State of the Industry – January 2023Find out the latest developments of the global air freight market in this monthly analysis by DHL Global Forwarding.A balancing act between volumes and freight rates
The addition of significant extra capacity on routes to and from China, however, could put further downward pressure on air freight pricing. Reports suggest that rates were softening even ahead of factory closures from 22 January for the Lunar New Year; this is usually when market demand sees a mini-spike as shippers urgently move products. This followed the weak peak season in the fourth quarter of 2022.
Recovery is expected to start from relatively healthy foundations, according to the latest analysis by CLIVE Data Services. However, the analyst firm noted that comparing the market at the end of 2022 versus pre-pandemic December 2019 was akin to comparing apples with pears.
“It would be easy to take a pessimistic view of the global air cargo market’s downturn in 2022, but this would ignore where it has come from. There is little use comparing it to the same time last year because then we had no Ukraine conflict, no high energy prices, no soaring interest rates, nor the impact of the subsequent cost-of-living pressures,” said Niall van de Wouw, Chief Airfreight Officer at Xeneta.
In December 2022, air cargo volumes fell eight percent year-on-year, the eighth consecutive month of lower demand. Volumes were down 13 percent compared to December 2019, even as capacity reached 93 percent of the 2019 level.
With all factors considered, CLIVE noted that airlines are still achieving rates that are 75 percent higher than pre-pandemic level.
“That indicates the glass is very much still half full. The difference now is that there’s less pressure if you’re a shipper, even though you’re still paying more. In terms of the long-term sustainability of the air cargo supply chain, this will help.”
RELATED ARTICLESPositive yet cautious outlook for ocean freight in the coming monthsSupply chain disruptions could still happen with expected factory closures in China and ongoing port congestions.Optimism for returning balance amidst market rebound
Neil Wilson, Editor of TAC Index, said carriers and other stakeholders had enjoyed some respite from jet fuel prices last year. These tapered off from the 100 percent-plus year-on-year increases seen earlier in 2022 to Platt’s reporting a 41.8 percent year-on-year increase across the entire calendar year.
“A calmer fuel market may ease things for carriers, but most economists and macro commentators are still expecting a recession in 2023 across much of the world economy,” added Wilson.
Looking forward in his latest Baltic Exchange analysis, Bruce Chan, Director and Senior Research Analyst covering Global Logistics and Future Mobility, Stifel, said further rates softening “is both possible and likely” as supply and demand find equilibrium in air cargo markets.
DHL’s January Airfreight State of the Industry noted that the demand side of the air cargo equation is still seeing a shift in traffic from air to ocean freight, where the latter is seeing more manageable freight costs.
The upside is a return of balance between air freight capacity and demand. “We do see the market changing back to pre-pandemic behavior, as continued soft export volumes have relieved the pressure on air freight capacity,” added Leung.
For its part, Nomura’s leading index of Asia ex-Japan’s aggregate exports, continues to dip, with its latest reading sliding to 79.6.
However, Nomura does expect an improving outlook for exports ex-Asia 2023 progresses. “In our base case, Asia’s export cycle reaches its trough in Q2 and rebounds in H2, but with a more rapid China reopening, European economies demonstrating some resiliency and an increasing likelihood that the Fed could soon pause its rate hiking cycle, the risk to our base case is that Asia’s exports rebound a little earlier, in Q2.”] =>
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[AFR-Jan-2023-key-image] => AFR-Jan-2023-key-image
[positive-cautious-outlook-ocean-freight-key-image] => positive-cautious-outlook-ocean-freight-key-image
[air-freight-situation-expected-improve-china-re-opening-single-column] => air-freight-situation-expected-improve-china-re-opening-single-column
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[$value] => Optimism for returning balance amidst market rebound
Neil Wilson, Editor of TAC Index, said carriers and other stakeholders had enjoyed some respite from jet fuel prices last year. These tapered off from the 100 percent-plus year-on-year increases seen earlier in 2022 to Platt’s reporting a 41.8 percent year-on-year increase across the entire calendar year.
“A calmer fuel market may ease things for carriers, but most economists and macro commentators are still expecting a recession in 2023 across much of the world economy,” added Wilson.
Looking forward in his latest Baltic Exchange analysis, Bruce Chan, Director and Senior Research Analyst covering Global Logistics and Future Mobility, Stifel, said further rates softening “is both possible and likely” as supply and demand find equilibrium in air cargo markets.
DHL’s January Airfreight State of the Industry noted that the demand side of the air cargo equation is still seeing a shift in traffic from air to ocean freight, where the latter is seeing more manageable freight costs.
The upside is a return of balance between air freight capacity and demand. “We do see the market changing back to pre-pandemic behavior, as continued soft export volumes have relieved the pressure on air freight capacity,” added Leung.
For its part, Nomura’s leading index of Asia ex-Japan’s aggregate exports, continues to dip, with its latest reading sliding to 79.6.
However, Nomura does expect an improving outlook for exports ex-Asia 2023 progresses. “In our base case, Asia’s export cycle reaches its trough in Q2 and rebounds in H2, but with a more rapid China reopening, European economies demonstrating some resiliency and an increasing likelihood that the Fed could soon pause its rate hiking cycle, the risk to our base case is that Asia’s exports rebound a little earlier, in Q2.”
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