Array
(
[derick] => Array
(
[[]] =>
[Positive yet cautious outlook for ocean freight in the coming months] => 未来几个月，对海运前景保持乐观但仍须谨慎
[Supply chain disruptions could still happen with expected factory closures in China and ongoing port congestions.] => 由于预期中国工厂停工和港口持续拥堵，供应链中断仍然有可能发生。
[What is the effect on service reliability?
Any increase in congestion could be detrimental to service reliability in 2023. Most analysts, however, expect congestion to ease and schedule reliability to improve due to the front-loading of cargo and leveling demand from the previous year.
Although schedule reliable is on an upward curve, it started at a very low base. According to Sea-Intelligence’s “Global Liner Performance” report, which tracks reliability across 34 trade lanes covered by over 60 container lines, just 56.6 percent of services arrived on time in November. Even so, this was the best monthly performance by carriers since August 2020 and up from just 30.4 percent in January 2022.
MSC, which has now supplanted Maersk as the largest carrier, has also surpassed Maersk as the world’s most ‘on-time’ line with schedule reliability of 63.4 percent in November, compared to Maersk at 61.7 percent. They were the only carriers above 60 percent. Four carriers recorded schedule reliability of 40 percent-50 percent while Yang Ming recorded the lowest schedule reliability of 42.5 percent.
Beyond the Lunar New Year
Moreover, a short-term increase in schedule disruption is sure to follow after the Lunar New Year, with ocean carriers reportedly preparing to blank around half their advertised sailings from Asia to the U.S and North Europe.
The strategy is part of liner efforts to stem the collapse of spot freight rates which has seen the Freightos Baltic Daily Index (FBX) decline 93 percent from its all-time high in September 2021. Indeed, it is now back to the same levels recorded in late 2019, before the onset of the COVID-induced consumer boom.
Contract rates were far higher than spot rates on average as 2022 turned to 2023, but as contract are renewed or renegotiated, that gap is set to be bridged.
Finding ways to cut capacity is becoming ever more urgent. The DHL Ocean Freight Market Outlook 2023 report noted that carriers have spent a lot of their profits on new container ships and demand is expected to be sluggish.
The report highlighted that some 7.5M TEU are in the orderbooks and 2.3M TEU of new capacity is expected to arrive next year. “Further measures to control capacity are expected to be implemented, such as blank sailings, slow steaming, idling, scrapping and the postponement of deliveries.] =>
此外，春节后肯定会出现短期的船期中断。据报道，海运公司准备取消大约一半从亚洲到美国和北欧的已宣布航班。
这个策略是航运公司为阻止即期运费费率暴跌而采取的措施的一部分，因为波罗的海每日运价指数（FBX）从2021年9月的历史高点下跌了93％。事实上，它现在已恢复到2019年末新冠疫情引发的消费热潮开始之前的水平。
在2022年和2023年之交，合同价格远高于即期费率，但随着合同的续签或重新谈判，这个差距将得到弥补。
寻找削减运力的办法变得越来越紧迫。敦豪《2023年海运市场展望》报告指出，航运公司将大量利润用于新集装箱船，因此预计需求将持续低迷。
该报告强调，现有订单中约有750万个20英尺标准箱，预计明年将投放230万个20英尺标准箱的新增运力。“预计将实施进一步的运力控制措施，例如取消航次、减速航行、闲置、报废和延迟交付。
[“Depressed consumer behavior would likely impact demand at least through the first half of 2023, with any possible recovery only starting in the second half of the year at the earliest,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.
“My advice to customers is to try and forecast accurately, choose a partner that can offer carrier and mode flexibility, and allow for sufficient lead times in case of disruptions.”
Dominique von Orelli, Global Head, Ocean Freight, DHL Global Forwarding, added that there could be the “first signs of a possible reshuffling carrier landscape, though this will most likely not happen in 2023”.
He added: “I also expect an increased focus on sustainable logistics to drive decision making.”] => “低迷的消费者行为可能至少会影响到2023年上半年的需求，最早要到2023年下半年才有可能复苏，”敦豪全球货运亚太区首席执行官Kelvin Leung说道。
“我对客户的建议是尽量准确地进行预测，选择一个能够保证航运公司和运输模式灵活性的合作伙伴，并在发生中断时预留足够的交付时间。”
敦豪全球货运海运部全球主管Dominique von Orelli补充道，可能出现“航运公司格局重新洗牌的初步迹象，尽管这很可能不会在2023年发生”。
他补充道：“我同样预计，增加对可持续物流的关注将进一步推动决策。”
[With demand forecasts weak, there is every expectation that container line service reliability levels will see more incremental improvements in 2023 after a positive end to 2022.
However, factory closures during Lunar New Year show that supply chain risks are still apparent, and that operators are taking divergent views of the market.
Jeremy Nixon, CEO of ONE, predicted that China’s factories might remain closed for as long as four weeks during the festive period rather than the usual two weeks.
Nixon expects “a soft January, February and March” with a possible pick up in April or May.
Hapag-Lloyd was more upbeat, having enjoyed a positive pre-Chinese New Year demand uptick in late 2022. The German carrier expects global container volumes to grow two percent in 2023, although this will be more than matched by a global capacity increase of around four percent. It also expects overall declining port congestions to release more vessel capacity on to the market.
Evergreen Marine Corp was also optimistic about the early weeks of 2023. It hiked rates on US routes from Asia in late December, citing rising demand ahead of the Lunar New Year, a trend facilitated by the easing of Covid-19 restrictions in China.
Double-edged sword
However, the loosening of restrictions has also resulted in a looming healthcare crisis from new infections and the threat of more supply chain chaos.
In the final week of December, container shipping data platform Linerlytica reported that congestion had built up around the Chinese ports of Shanghai, Ningbo and Qingdao. This has pushed the combined capacity of container ships waiting at Chinese anchorages to 850,000 twenty-foot equivalent unit (TEU) – the highest levels seen since September.
The rise in Chinese port congestion pushed up global congestion numbers in the last week of 2022 to 2.59M TEU, equal to around 10 percent of the global container fleet, of which North Asia ports account for 37 percent of the total capacity tied up at anchorages.
Linerlytica also noted that the situation could worsen with rising Covid-19 infection rates across Chinese cities after the government eased restrictions. This, in turn, is affecting the availability of labor and port handling productivity. As Chinese workers prepare for the Lunar New Year holidays, congestion is expected to remain elevated over the coming weeks.] => 在需求预测疲软的情况下，人们普遍预计，2022年底呈现积极向好的态势后，集装箱航运公司的服务可靠性水平将在2023年进一步提升。
然而，春节期间工厂停工表明，供应链仍然存在明显风险，运营商对市场的看法也存在分歧。
日本海洋网联船务公司首席执行官Jeremy Nixon预测，中国工厂有可能在春节期间停工四周之久，而不是通常的两周。
Nixon预计“1月、2月和3月市场将处于低迷状态”，4月或5月有可能反弹。
赫伯罗特公司则较为乐观，因为在2022年末到春节前，需求出现了小幅增长。这家德国航运公司预计2023年全球集装箱吞吐量将增长2％，而全球集装箱吞吐能力将增长4％左右。该公司还预计港口拥堵情况的总体减少将向市场释放更多的船舶运力。
长荣海运股份有限公司也对2023年的前几周抱有乐观态度。去年12月底，该公司上调了亚洲始发的美国航线的运价，理由是春节前需求增长，而中国放宽疫情防控措施促成了这个趋势，
这是一把双刃剑
然而，放松疫情管控也导致了新增感染，带来了迫在眉睫的医疗危机，以及更多供应链混乱的威胁。
去年12月的最后一周，集装箱航运数据平台Linerlytica报道称，上海、宁波和青岛港口周围出现拥堵加剧的情况。这使得在中国锚地等待的集装箱船的总容量达到85万个20英尺标准箱（TEU）――这是自9月以来的最高水平。
中国港口拥堵的加剧，将2022年最后一周的全球拥堵数量推高至259万个20英尺标准箱，相当于全球集装箱船队总运力的10％左右，其中北亚港口占锚地总运力的37％。
Linerlytica还指出，在政府放宽疫情防控后，随着中国各城市新冠肺炎感染率的上升，情况可能会进一步恶化。这又反过来影响了可用劳动力和港口装卸效率。随着中国工人为春节假期做准备，预计未来几周港口拥堵现象将继续加剧。
[wysiwyg] => wysiwyg
[outbound_box] => outbound_box
[Supply chain disruptions could still happen with expected factory closures in China and ongoing port congestions. With demand forecasts weak, there is every expectation that container line service reliability levels will see more incremental improvements in 2023 after a positive end to 2022.
However, factory closures during Lunar New Year show that supply chain risks are still apparent, and that operators are taking divergent views of the market.
Jeremy Nixon, CEO of ONE, predicted that China’s factories might remain closed for as long as four weeks during the festive period rather than the usual two weeks.
Nixon expects “a soft January, February and March” with a possible pick up in April or May.
Hapag-Lloyd was more upbeat, having enjoyed a positive pre-Chinese New Year demand uptick in late 2022. The German carrier expects global container volumes to grow two percent in 2023, although this will be more than matched by a global capacity increase of around four percent. It also expects overall declining port congestions to release more vessel capacity on to the market.
Evergreen Marine Corp was also optimistic about the early weeks of 2023. It hiked rates on US routes from Asia in late December, citing rising demand ahead of the Lunar New Year, a trend facilitated by the easing of Covid-19 restrictions in China.
Double-edged sword
However, the loosening of restrictions has also resulted in a looming healthcare crisis from new infections and the threat of more supply chain chaos.
In the final week of December, container shipping data platform Linerlytica reported that congestion had built up around the Chinese ports of Shanghai, Ningbo and Qingdao. This has pushed the combined capacity of container ships waiting at Chinese anchorages to 850,000 twenty-foot equivalent unit (TEU) – the highest levels seen since September.
The rise in Chinese port congestion pushed up global congestion numbers in the last week of 2022 to 2.59M TEU, equal to around 10 percent of the global container fleet, of which North Asia ports account for 37 percent of the total capacity tied up at anchorages.
Linerlytica also noted that the situation could worsen with rising Covid-19 infection rates across Chinese cities after the government eased restrictions. This, in turn, is affecting the availability of labor and port handling productivity. As Chinese workers prepare for the Lunar New Year holidays, congestion is expected to remain elevated over the coming weeks.
RELATED ARTICLESImproving schedule reliability offers a positive end to the yearSpot freight rates, however, are seeing a continued downward shift into December.What is the effect on service reliability?
Any increase in congestion could be detrimental to service reliability in 2023. Most analysts, however, expect congestion to ease and schedule reliability to improve due to the front-loading of cargo and leveling demand from the previous year.
Although schedule reliable is on an upward curve, it started at a very low base. According to Sea-Intelligence’s “Global Liner Performance” report, which tracks reliability across 34 trade lanes covered by over 60 container lines, just 56.6 percent of services arrived on time in November. Even so, this was the best monthly performance by carriers since August 2020 and up from just 30.4 percent in January 2022.
MSC, which has now supplanted Maersk as the largest carrier, has also surpassed Maersk as the world’s most ‘on-time’ line with schedule reliability of 63.4 percent in November, compared to Maersk at 61.7 percent. They were the only carriers above 60 percent. Four carriers recorded schedule reliability of 40 percent-50 percent while Yang Ming recorded the lowest schedule reliability of 42.5 percent.
Beyond the Lunar New Year
Moreover, a short-term increase in schedule disruption is sure to follow after the Lunar New Year, with ocean carriers reportedly preparing to blank around half their advertised sailings from Asia to the U.S and North Europe.
The strategy is part of liner efforts to stem the collapse of spot freight rates which has seen the Freightos Baltic Daily Index (FBX) decline 93 percent from its all-time high in September 2021. Indeed, it is now back to the same levels recorded in late 2019, before the onset of the COVID-induced consumer boom.
Contract rates were far higher than spot rates on average as 2022 turned to 2023, but as contract are renewed or renegotiated, that gap is set to be bridged.
Finding ways to cut capacity is becoming ever more urgent. The DHL Ocean Freight Market Outlook 2023 report noted that carriers have spent a lot of their profits on new container ships and demand is expected to be sluggish.
The report highlighted that some 7.5M TEU are in the orderbooks and 2.3M TEU of new capacity is expected to arrive next year. “Further measures to control capacity are expected to be implemented, such as blank sailings, slow steaming, idling, scrapping and the postponement of deliveries.
RELATED ARTICLESDHL Ocean Freight Market Update Outlook 2023Challenges faced by shippers are set to persist at least for the first half of 2023.“Depressed consumer behavior would likely impact demand at least through the first half of 2023, with any possible recovery only starting in the second half of the year at the earliest,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.
“My advice to customers is to try and forecast accurately, choose a partner that can offer carrier and mode flexibility, and allow for sufficient lead times in case of disruptions.”
Dominique von Orelli, Global Head, Ocean Freight, DHL Global Forwarding, added that there could be the “first signs of a possible reshuffling carrier landscape, though this will most likely not happen in 2023”.
He added: “I also expect an increased focus on sustainable logistics to drive decision making.”] =>
敦豪全球货运海运部全球主管Dominique von Orelli补充道，可能出现“航运公司格局重新洗牌的初步迹象，尽管这很可能不会在2023年发生”。
他补充道：“我同样预计，增加对可持续物流的关注将进一步推动决策。”
[] =>
[positive-cautious-outlook-ocean-freight] => positive-cautious-outlook-ocean-freight
[improving-schedule-reliability-positive-end-year-key-image] => improving-schedule-reliability-positive-end-year-key-image
[dhl-ocean-freight-market-update-outlook-2023-key-image] => dhl-ocean-freight-market-update-outlook-2023-key-image
)
[$value] => With demand forecasts weak, there is every expectation that container line service reliability levels will see more incremental improvements in 2023 after a positive end to 2022.
However, factory closures during Lunar New Year show that supply chain risks are still apparent, and that operators are taking divergent views of the market.
Jeremy Nixon, CEO of ONE, predicted that China’s factories might remain closed for as long as four weeks during the festive period rather than the usual two weeks.
Nixon expects “a soft January, February and March” with a possible pick up in April or May.
Hapag-Lloyd was more upbeat, having enjoyed a positive pre-Chinese New Year demand uptick in late 2022. The German carrier expects global container volumes to grow two percent in 2023, although this will be more than matched by a global capacity increase of around four percent. It also expects overall declining port congestions to release more vessel capacity on to the market.
Evergreen Marine Corp was also optimistic about the early weeks of 2023. It hiked rates on US routes from Asia in late December, citing rising demand ahead of the Lunar New Year, a trend facilitated by the easing of Covid-19 restrictions in China.
Double-edged sword
However, the loosening of restrictions has also resulted in a looming healthcare crisis from new infections and the threat of more supply chain chaos.
In the final week of December, container shipping data platform Linerlytica reported that congestion had built up around the Chinese ports of Shanghai, Ningbo and Qingdao. This has pushed the combined capacity of container ships waiting at Chinese anchorages to 850,000 twenty-foot equivalent unit (TEU) – the highest levels seen since September.
The rise in Chinese port congestion pushed up global congestion numbers in the last week of 2022 to 2.59M TEU, equal to around 10 percent of the global container fleet, of which North Asia ports account for 37 percent of the total capacity tied up at anchorages.
Linerlytica also noted that the situation could worsen with rising Covid-19 infection rates across Chinese cities after the government eased restrictions. This, in turn, is affecting the availability of labor and port handling productivity. As Chinese workers prepare for the Lunar New Year holidays, congestion is expected to remain elevated over the coming weeks.
)
Array
(
[derick] => Array
(
[[]] =>
[Positive yet cautious outlook for ocean freight in the coming months] => 未来几个月，对海运前景保持乐观但仍须谨慎
[Supply chain disruptions could still happen with expected factory closures in China and ongoing port congestions.] => 由于预期中国工厂停工和港口持续拥堵，供应链中断仍然有可能发生。
[What is the effect on service reliability?
Any increase in congestion could be detrimental to service reliability in 2023. Most analysts, however, expect congestion to ease and schedule reliability to improve due to the front-loading of cargo and leveling demand from the previous year.
Although schedule reliable is on an upward curve, it started at a very low base. According to Sea-Intelligence’s “Global Liner Performance” report, which tracks reliability across 34 trade lanes covered by over 60 container lines, just 56.6 percent of services arrived on time in November. Even so, this was the best monthly performance by carriers since August 2020 and up from just 30.4 percent in January 2022.
MSC, which has now supplanted Maersk as the largest carrier, has also surpassed Maersk as the world’s most ‘on-time’ line with schedule reliability of 63.4 percent in November, compared to Maersk at 61.7 percent. They were the only carriers above 60 percent. Four carriers recorded schedule reliability of 40 percent-50 percent while Yang Ming recorded the lowest schedule reliability of 42.5 percent.
Beyond the Lunar New Year
Moreover, a short-term increase in schedule disruption is sure to follow after the Lunar New Year, with ocean carriers reportedly preparing to blank around half their advertised sailings from Asia to the U.S and North Europe.
The strategy is part of liner efforts to stem the collapse of spot freight rates which has seen the Freightos Baltic Daily Index (FBX) decline 93 percent from its all-time high in September 2021. Indeed, it is now back to the same levels recorded in late 2019, before the onset of the COVID-induced consumer boom.
Contract rates were far higher than spot rates on average as 2022 turned to 2023, but as contract are renewed or renegotiated, that gap is set to be bridged.
Finding ways to cut capacity is becoming ever more urgent. The DHL Ocean Freight Market Outlook 2023 report noted that carriers have spent a lot of their profits on new container ships and demand is expected to be sluggish.
The report highlighted that some 7.5M TEU are in the orderbooks and 2.3M TEU of new capacity is expected to arrive next year. “Further measures to control capacity are expected to be implemented, such as blank sailings, slow steaming, idling, scrapping and the postponement of deliveries.] =>
此外，春节后肯定会出现短期的船期中断。据报道，海运公司准备取消大约一半从亚洲到美国和北欧的已宣布航班。
这个策略是航运公司为阻止即期运费费率暴跌而采取的措施的一部分，因为波罗的海每日运价指数（FBX）从2021年9月的历史高点下跌了93％。事实上，它现在已恢复到2019年末新冠疫情引发的消费热潮开始之前的水平。
在2022年和2023年之交，合同价格远高于即期费率，但随着合同的续签或重新谈判，这个差距将得到弥补。
寻找削减运力的办法变得越来越紧迫。敦豪《2023年海运市场展望》报告指出，航运公司将大量利润用于新集装箱船，因此预计需求将持续低迷。
该报告强调，现有订单中约有750万个20英尺标准箱，预计明年将投放230万个20英尺标准箱的新增运力。“预计将实施进一步的运力控制措施，例如取消航次、减速航行、闲置、报废和延迟交付。
[“Depressed consumer behavior would likely impact demand at least through the first half of 2023, with any possible recovery only starting in the second half of the year at the earliest,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.
“My advice to customers is to try and forecast accurately, choose a partner that can offer carrier and mode flexibility, and allow for sufficient lead times in case of disruptions.”
Dominique von Orelli, Global Head, Ocean Freight, DHL Global Forwarding, added that there could be the “first signs of a possible reshuffling carrier landscape, though this will most likely not happen in 2023”.
He added: “I also expect an increased focus on sustainable logistics to drive decision making.”] => “低迷的消费者行为可能至少会影响到2023年上半年的需求，最早要到2023年下半年才有可能复苏，”敦豪全球货运亚太区首席执行官Kelvin Leung说道。
“我对客户的建议是尽量准确地进行预测，选择一个能够保证航运公司和运输模式灵活性的合作伙伴，并在发生中断时预留足够的交付时间。”
敦豪全球货运海运部全球主管Dominique von Orelli补充道，可能出现“航运公司格局重新洗牌的初步迹象，尽管这很可能不会在2023年发生”。
他补充道：“我同样预计，增加对可持续物流的关注将进一步推动决策。”
[With demand forecasts weak, there is every expectation that container line service reliability levels will see more incremental improvements in 2023 after a positive end to 2022.
However, factory closures during Lunar New Year show that supply chain risks are still apparent, and that operators are taking divergent views of the market.
Jeremy Nixon, CEO of ONE, predicted that China’s factories might remain closed for as long as four weeks during the festive period rather than the usual two weeks.
Nixon expects “a soft January, February and March” with a possible pick up in April or May.
Hapag-Lloyd was more upbeat, having enjoyed a positive pre-Chinese New Year demand uptick in late 2022. The German carrier expects global container volumes to grow two percent in 2023, although this will be more than matched by a global capacity increase of around four percent. It also expects overall declining port congestions to release more vessel capacity on to the market.
Evergreen Marine Corp was also optimistic about the early weeks of 2023. It hiked rates on US routes from Asia in late December, citing rising demand ahead of the Lunar New Year, a trend facilitated by the easing of Covid-19 restrictions in China.
Double-edged sword
However, the loosening of restrictions has also resulted in a looming healthcare crisis from new infections and the threat of more supply chain chaos.
In the final week of December, container shipping data platform Linerlytica reported that congestion had built up around the Chinese ports of Shanghai, Ningbo and Qingdao. This has pushed the combined capacity of container ships waiting at Chinese anchorages to 850,000 twenty-foot equivalent unit (TEU) – the highest levels seen since September.
The rise in Chinese port congestion pushed up global congestion numbers in the last week of 2022 to 2.59M TEU, equal to around 10 percent of the global container fleet, of which North Asia ports account for 37 percent of the total capacity tied up at anchorages.
Linerlytica also noted that the situation could worsen with rising Covid-19 infection rates across Chinese cities after the government eased restrictions. This, in turn, is affecting the availability of labor and port handling productivity. As Chinese workers prepare for the Lunar New Year holidays, congestion is expected to remain elevated over the coming weeks.] => 在需求预测疲软的情况下，人们普遍预计，2022年底呈现积极向好的态势后，集装箱航运公司的服务可靠性水平将在2023年进一步提升。
然而，春节期间工厂停工表明，供应链仍然存在明显风险，运营商对市场的看法也存在分歧。
日本海洋网联船务公司首席执行官Jeremy Nixon预测，中国工厂有可能在春节期间停工四周之久，而不是通常的两周。
Nixon预计“1月、2月和3月市场将处于低迷状态”，4月或5月有可能反弹。
赫伯罗特公司则较为乐观，因为在2022年末到春节前，需求出现了小幅增长。这家德国航运公司预计2023年全球集装箱吞吐量将增长2％，而全球集装箱吞吐能力将增长4％左右。该公司还预计港口拥堵情况的总体减少将向市场释放更多的船舶运力。
长荣海运股份有限公司也对2023年的前几周抱有乐观态度。去年12月底，该公司上调了亚洲始发的美国航线的运价，理由是春节前需求增长，而中国放宽疫情防控措施促成了这个趋势，
这是一把双刃剑
然而，放松疫情管控也导致了新增感染，带来了迫在眉睫的医疗危机，以及更多供应链混乱的威胁。
去年12月的最后一周，集装箱航运数据平台Linerlytica报道称，上海、宁波和青岛港口周围出现拥堵加剧的情况。这使得在中国锚地等待的集装箱船的总容量达到85万个20英尺标准箱（TEU）――这是自9月以来的最高水平。
中国港口拥堵的加剧，将2022年最后一周的全球拥堵数量推高至259万个20英尺标准箱，相当于全球集装箱船队总运力的10％左右，其中北亚港口占锚地总运力的37％。
Linerlytica还指出，在政府放宽疫情防控后，随着中国各城市新冠肺炎感染率的上升，情况可能会进一步恶化。这又反过来影响了可用劳动力和港口装卸效率。随着中国工人为春节假期做准备，预计未来几周港口拥堵现象将继续加剧。
[wysiwyg] => wysiwyg
[outbound_box] => outbound_box
[Supply chain disruptions could still happen with expected factory closures in China and ongoing port congestions. With demand forecasts weak, there is every expectation that container line service reliability levels will see more incremental improvements in 2023 after a positive end to 2022.
However, factory closures during Lunar New Year show that supply chain risks are still apparent, and that operators are taking divergent views of the market.
Jeremy Nixon, CEO of ONE, predicted that China’s factories might remain closed for as long as four weeks during the festive period rather than the usual two weeks.
Nixon expects “a soft January, February and March” with a possible pick up in April or May.
Hapag-Lloyd was more upbeat, having enjoyed a positive pre-Chinese New Year demand uptick in late 2022. The German carrier expects global container volumes to grow two percent in 2023, although this will be more than matched by a global capacity increase of around four percent. It also expects overall declining port congestions to release more vessel capacity on to the market.
Evergreen Marine Corp was also optimistic about the early weeks of 2023. It hiked rates on US routes from Asia in late December, citing rising demand ahead of the Lunar New Year, a trend facilitated by the easing of Covid-19 restrictions in China.
Double-edged sword
However, the loosening of restrictions has also resulted in a looming healthcare crisis from new infections and the threat of more supply chain chaos.
In the final week of December, container shipping data platform Linerlytica reported that congestion had built up around the Chinese ports of Shanghai, Ningbo and Qingdao. This has pushed the combined capacity of container ships waiting at Chinese anchorages to 850,000 twenty-foot equivalent unit (TEU) – the highest levels seen since September.
The rise in Chinese port congestion pushed up global congestion numbers in the last week of 2022 to 2.59M TEU, equal to around 10 percent of the global container fleet, of which North Asia ports account for 37 percent of the total capacity tied up at anchorages.
Linerlytica also noted that the situation could worsen with rising Covid-19 infection rates across Chinese cities after the government eased restrictions. This, in turn, is affecting the availability of labor and port handling productivity. As Chinese workers prepare for the Lunar New Year holidays, congestion is expected to remain elevated over the coming weeks.
RELATED ARTICLESImproving schedule reliability offers a positive end to the yearSpot freight rates, however, are seeing a continued downward shift into December.What is the effect on service reliability?
Any increase in congestion could be detrimental to service reliability in 2023. Most analysts, however, expect congestion to ease and schedule reliability to improve due to the front-loading of cargo and leveling demand from the previous year.
Although schedule reliable is on an upward curve, it started at a very low base. According to Sea-Intelligence’s “Global Liner Performance” report, which tracks reliability across 34 trade lanes covered by over 60 container lines, just 56.6 percent of services arrived on time in November. Even so, this was the best monthly performance by carriers since August 2020 and up from just 30.4 percent in January 2022.
MSC, which has now supplanted Maersk as the largest carrier, has also surpassed Maersk as the world’s most ‘on-time’ line with schedule reliability of 63.4 percent in November, compared to Maersk at 61.7 percent. They were the only carriers above 60 percent. Four carriers recorded schedule reliability of 40 percent-50 percent while Yang Ming recorded the lowest schedule reliability of 42.5 percent.
Beyond the Lunar New Year
Moreover, a short-term increase in schedule disruption is sure to follow after the Lunar New Year, with ocean carriers reportedly preparing to blank around half their advertised sailings from Asia to the U.S and North Europe.
The strategy is part of liner efforts to stem the collapse of spot freight rates which has seen the Freightos Baltic Daily Index (FBX) decline 93 percent from its all-time high in September 2021. Indeed, it is now back to the same levels recorded in late 2019, before the onset of the COVID-induced consumer boom.
Contract rates were far higher than spot rates on average as 2022 turned to 2023, but as contract are renewed or renegotiated, that gap is set to be bridged.
Finding ways to cut capacity is becoming ever more urgent. The DHL Ocean Freight Market Outlook 2023 report noted that carriers have spent a lot of their profits on new container ships and demand is expected to be sluggish.
The report highlighted that some 7.5M TEU are in the orderbooks and 2.3M TEU of new capacity is expected to arrive next year. “Further measures to control capacity are expected to be implemented, such as blank sailings, slow steaming, idling, scrapping and the postponement of deliveries.
RELATED ARTICLESDHL Ocean Freight Market Update Outlook 2023Challenges faced by shippers are set to persist at least for the first half of 2023.“Depressed consumer behavior would likely impact demand at least through the first half of 2023, with any possible recovery only starting in the second half of the year at the earliest,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.
“My advice to customers is to try and forecast accurately, choose a partner that can offer carrier and mode flexibility, and allow for sufficient lead times in case of disruptions.”
Dominique von Orelli, Global Head, Ocean Freight, DHL Global Forwarding, added that there could be the “first signs of a possible reshuffling carrier landscape, though this will most likely not happen in 2023”.
He added: “I also expect an increased focus on sustainable logistics to drive decision making.”] =>
敦豪全球货运海运部全球主管Dominique von Orelli补充道，可能出现“航运公司格局重新洗牌的初步迹象，尽管这很可能不会在2023年发生”。
他补充道：“我同样预计，增加对可持续物流的关注将进一步推动决策。”
[] =>
[positive-cautious-outlook-ocean-freight] => positive-cautious-outlook-ocean-freight
[improving-schedule-reliability-positive-end-year-key-image] => improving-schedule-reliability-positive-end-year-key-image
[dhl-ocean-freight-market-update-outlook-2023-key-image] => dhl-ocean-freight-market-update-outlook-2023-key-image
)
[$value] => What is the effect on service reliability?
Any increase in congestion could be detrimental to service reliability in 2023. Most analysts, however, expect congestion to ease and schedule reliability to improve due to the front-loading of cargo and leveling demand from the previous year.
Although schedule reliable is on an upward curve, it started at a very low base. According to Sea-Intelligence’s “Global Liner Performance” report, which tracks reliability across 34 trade lanes covered by over 60 container lines, just 56.6 percent of services arrived on time in November. Even so, this was the best monthly performance by carriers since August 2020 and up from just 30.4 percent in January 2022.
MSC, which has now supplanted Maersk as the largest carrier, has also surpassed Maersk as the world’s most ‘on-time’ line with schedule reliability of 63.4 percent in November, compared to Maersk at 61.7 percent. They were the only carriers above 60 percent. Four carriers recorded schedule reliability of 40 percent-50 percent while Yang Ming recorded the lowest schedule reliability of 42.5 percent.
Beyond the Lunar New Year
Moreover, a short-term increase in schedule disruption is sure to follow after the Lunar New Year, with ocean carriers reportedly preparing to blank around half their advertised sailings from Asia to the U.S and North Europe.
The strategy is part of liner efforts to stem the collapse of spot freight rates which has seen the Freightos Baltic Daily Index (FBX) decline 93 percent from its all-time high in September 2021. Indeed, it is now back to the same levels recorded in late 2019, before the onset of the COVID-induced consumer boom.
Contract rates were far higher than spot rates on average as 2022 turned to 2023, but as contract are renewed or renegotiated, that gap is set to be bridged.
Finding ways to cut capacity is becoming ever more urgent. The DHL Ocean Freight Market Outlook 2023 report noted that carriers have spent a lot of their profits on new container ships and demand is expected to be sluggish.
The report highlighted that some 7.5M TEU are in the orderbooks and 2.3M TEU of new capacity is expected to arrive next year. “Further measures to control capacity are expected to be implemented, such as blank sailings, slow steaming, idling, scrapping and the postponement of deliveries.
)
Array
(
[derick] => Array
(
[[]] =>
[Positive yet cautious outlook for ocean freight in the coming months] => 未来几个月，对海运前景保持乐观但仍须谨慎
[Supply chain disruptions could still happen with expected factory closures in China and ongoing port congestions.] => 由于预期中国工厂停工和港口持续拥堵，供应链中断仍然有可能发生。
[What is the effect on service reliability?
Any increase in congestion could be detrimental to service reliability in 2023. Most analysts, however, expect congestion to ease and schedule reliability to improve due to the front-loading of cargo and leveling demand from the previous year.
Although schedule reliable is on an upward curve, it started at a very low base. According to Sea-Intelligence’s “Global Liner Performance” report, which tracks reliability across 34 trade lanes covered by over 60 container lines, just 56.6 percent of services arrived on time in November. Even so, this was the best monthly performance by carriers since August 2020 and up from just 30.4 percent in January 2022.
MSC, which has now supplanted Maersk as the largest carrier, has also surpassed Maersk as the world’s most ‘on-time’ line with schedule reliability of 63.4 percent in November, compared to Maersk at 61.7 percent. They were the only carriers above 60 percent. Four carriers recorded schedule reliability of 40 percent-50 percent while Yang Ming recorded the lowest schedule reliability of 42.5 percent.
Beyond the Lunar New Year
Moreover, a short-term increase in schedule disruption is sure to follow after the Lunar New Year, with ocean carriers reportedly preparing to blank around half their advertised sailings from Asia to the U.S and North Europe.
The strategy is part of liner efforts to stem the collapse of spot freight rates which has seen the Freightos Baltic Daily Index (FBX) decline 93 percent from its all-time high in September 2021. Indeed, it is now back to the same levels recorded in late 2019, before the onset of the COVID-induced consumer boom.
Contract rates were far higher than spot rates on average as 2022 turned to 2023, but as contract are renewed or renegotiated, that gap is set to be bridged.
Finding ways to cut capacity is becoming ever more urgent. The DHL Ocean Freight Market Outlook 2023 report noted that carriers have spent a lot of their profits on new container ships and demand is expected to be sluggish.
The report highlighted that some 7.5M TEU are in the orderbooks and 2.3M TEU of new capacity is expected to arrive next year. “Further measures to control capacity are expected to be implemented, such as blank sailings, slow steaming, idling, scrapping and the postponement of deliveries.] =>
此外，春节后肯定会出现短期的船期中断。据报道，海运公司准备取消大约一半从亚洲到美国和北欧的已宣布航班。
这个策略是航运公司为阻止即期运费费率暴跌而采取的措施的一部分，因为波罗的海每日运价指数（FBX）从2021年9月的历史高点下跌了93％。事实上，它现在已恢复到2019年末新冠疫情引发的消费热潮开始之前的水平。
在2022年和2023年之交，合同价格远高于即期费率，但随着合同的续签或重新谈判，这个差距将得到弥补。
寻找削减运力的办法变得越来越紧迫。敦豪《2023年海运市场展望》报告指出，航运公司将大量利润用于新集装箱船，因此预计需求将持续低迷。
该报告强调，现有订单中约有750万个20英尺标准箱，预计明年将投放230万个20英尺标准箱的新增运力。“预计将实施进一步的运力控制措施，例如取消航次、减速航行、闲置、报废和延迟交付。
[“Depressed consumer behavior would likely impact demand at least through the first half of 2023, with any possible recovery only starting in the second half of the year at the earliest,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.
“My advice to customers is to try and forecast accurately, choose a partner that can offer carrier and mode flexibility, and allow for sufficient lead times in case of disruptions.”
Dominique von Orelli, Global Head, Ocean Freight, DHL Global Forwarding, added that there could be the “first signs of a possible reshuffling carrier landscape, though this will most likely not happen in 2023”.
He added: “I also expect an increased focus on sustainable logistics to drive decision making.”] => “低迷的消费者行为可能至少会影响到2023年上半年的需求，最早要到2023年下半年才有可能复苏，”敦豪全球货运亚太区首席执行官Kelvin Leung说道。
“我对客户的建议是尽量准确地进行预测，选择一个能够保证航运公司和运输模式灵活性的合作伙伴，并在发生中断时预留足够的交付时间。”
敦豪全球货运海运部全球主管Dominique von Orelli补充道，可能出现“航运公司格局重新洗牌的初步迹象，尽管这很可能不会在2023年发生”。
他补充道：“我同样预计，增加对可持续物流的关注将进一步推动决策。”
[With demand forecasts weak, there is every expectation that container line service reliability levels will see more incremental improvements in 2023 after a positive end to 2022.
However, factory closures during Lunar New Year show that supply chain risks are still apparent, and that operators are taking divergent views of the market.
Jeremy Nixon, CEO of ONE, predicted that China’s factories might remain closed for as long as four weeks during the festive period rather than the usual two weeks.
Nixon expects “a soft January, February and March” with a possible pick up in April or May.
Hapag-Lloyd was more upbeat, having enjoyed a positive pre-Chinese New Year demand uptick in late 2022. The German carrier expects global container volumes to grow two percent in 2023, although this will be more than matched by a global capacity increase of around four percent. It also expects overall declining port congestions to release more vessel capacity on to the market.
Evergreen Marine Corp was also optimistic about the early weeks of 2023. It hiked rates on US routes from Asia in late December, citing rising demand ahead of the Lunar New Year, a trend facilitated by the easing of Covid-19 restrictions in China.
Double-edged sword
However, the loosening of restrictions has also resulted in a looming healthcare crisis from new infections and the threat of more supply chain chaos.
In the final week of December, container shipping data platform Linerlytica reported that congestion had built up around the Chinese ports of Shanghai, Ningbo and Qingdao. This has pushed the combined capacity of container ships waiting at Chinese anchorages to 850,000 twenty-foot equivalent unit (TEU) – the highest levels seen since September.
The rise in Chinese port congestion pushed up global congestion numbers in the last week of 2022 to 2.59M TEU, equal to around 10 percent of the global container fleet, of which North Asia ports account for 37 percent of the total capacity tied up at anchorages.
Linerlytica also noted that the situation could worsen with rising Covid-19 infection rates across Chinese cities after the government eased restrictions. This, in turn, is affecting the availability of labor and port handling productivity. As Chinese workers prepare for the Lunar New Year holidays, congestion is expected to remain elevated over the coming weeks.] => 在需求预测疲软的情况下，人们普遍预计，2022年底呈现积极向好的态势后，集装箱航运公司的服务可靠性水平将在2023年进一步提升。
然而，春节期间工厂停工表明，供应链仍然存在明显风险，运营商对市场的看法也存在分歧。
日本海洋网联船务公司首席执行官Jeremy Nixon预测，中国工厂有可能在春节期间停工四周之久，而不是通常的两周。
Nixon预计“1月、2月和3月市场将处于低迷状态”，4月或5月有可能反弹。
赫伯罗特公司则较为乐观，因为在2022年末到春节前，需求出现了小幅增长。这家德国航运公司预计2023年全球集装箱吞吐量将增长2％，而全球集装箱吞吐能力将增长4％左右。该公司还预计港口拥堵情况的总体减少将向市场释放更多的船舶运力。
长荣海运股份有限公司也对2023年的前几周抱有乐观态度。去年12月底，该公司上调了亚洲始发的美国航线的运价，理由是春节前需求增长，而中国放宽疫情防控措施促成了这个趋势，
这是一把双刃剑
然而，放松疫情管控也导致了新增感染，带来了迫在眉睫的医疗危机，以及更多供应链混乱的威胁。
去年12月的最后一周，集装箱航运数据平台Linerlytica报道称，上海、宁波和青岛港口周围出现拥堵加剧的情况。这使得在中国锚地等待的集装箱船的总容量达到85万个20英尺标准箱（TEU）――这是自9月以来的最高水平。
中国港口拥堵的加剧，将2022年最后一周的全球拥堵数量推高至259万个20英尺标准箱，相当于全球集装箱船队总运力的10％左右，其中北亚港口占锚地总运力的37％。
Linerlytica还指出，在政府放宽疫情防控后，随着中国各城市新冠肺炎感染率的上升，情况可能会进一步恶化。这又反过来影响了可用劳动力和港口装卸效率。随着中国工人为春节假期做准备，预计未来几周港口拥堵现象将继续加剧。
[wysiwyg] => wysiwyg
[outbound_box] => outbound_box
[Supply chain disruptions could still happen with expected factory closures in China and ongoing port congestions. With demand forecasts weak, there is every expectation that container line service reliability levels will see more incremental improvements in 2023 after a positive end to 2022.
However, factory closures during Lunar New Year show that supply chain risks are still apparent, and that operators are taking divergent views of the market.
Jeremy Nixon, CEO of ONE, predicted that China’s factories might remain closed for as long as four weeks during the festive period rather than the usual two weeks.
Nixon expects “a soft January, February and March” with a possible pick up in April or May.
Hapag-Lloyd was more upbeat, having enjoyed a positive pre-Chinese New Year demand uptick in late 2022. The German carrier expects global container volumes to grow two percent in 2023, although this will be more than matched by a global capacity increase of around four percent. It also expects overall declining port congestions to release more vessel capacity on to the market.
Evergreen Marine Corp was also optimistic about the early weeks of 2023. It hiked rates on US routes from Asia in late December, citing rising demand ahead of the Lunar New Year, a trend facilitated by the easing of Covid-19 restrictions in China.
Double-edged sword
However, the loosening of restrictions has also resulted in a looming healthcare crisis from new infections and the threat of more supply chain chaos.
In the final week of December, container shipping data platform Linerlytica reported that congestion had built up around the Chinese ports of Shanghai, Ningbo and Qingdao. This has pushed the combined capacity of container ships waiting at Chinese anchorages to 850,000 twenty-foot equivalent unit (TEU) – the highest levels seen since September.
The rise in Chinese port congestion pushed up global congestion numbers in the last week of 2022 to 2.59M TEU, equal to around 10 percent of the global container fleet, of which North Asia ports account for 37 percent of the total capacity tied up at anchorages.
Linerlytica also noted that the situation could worsen with rising Covid-19 infection rates across Chinese cities after the government eased restrictions. This, in turn, is affecting the availability of labor and port handling productivity. As Chinese workers prepare for the Lunar New Year holidays, congestion is expected to remain elevated over the coming weeks.
RELATED ARTICLESImproving schedule reliability offers a positive end to the yearSpot freight rates, however, are seeing a continued downward shift into December.What is the effect on service reliability?
Any increase in congestion could be detrimental to service reliability in 2023. Most analysts, however, expect congestion to ease and schedule reliability to improve due to the front-loading of cargo and leveling demand from the previous year.
Although schedule reliable is on an upward curve, it started at a very low base. According to Sea-Intelligence’s “Global Liner Performance” report, which tracks reliability across 34 trade lanes covered by over 60 container lines, just 56.6 percent of services arrived on time in November. Even so, this was the best monthly performance by carriers since August 2020 and up from just 30.4 percent in January 2022.
MSC, which has now supplanted Maersk as the largest carrier, has also surpassed Maersk as the world’s most ‘on-time’ line with schedule reliability of 63.4 percent in November, compared to Maersk at 61.7 percent. They were the only carriers above 60 percent. Four carriers recorded schedule reliability of 40 percent-50 percent while Yang Ming recorded the lowest schedule reliability of 42.5 percent.
Beyond the Lunar New Year
Moreover, a short-term increase in schedule disruption is sure to follow after the Lunar New Year, with ocean carriers reportedly preparing to blank around half their advertised sailings from Asia to the U.S and North Europe.
The strategy is part of liner efforts to stem the collapse of spot freight rates which has seen the Freightos Baltic Daily Index (FBX) decline 93 percent from its all-time high in September 2021. Indeed, it is now back to the same levels recorded in late 2019, before the onset of the COVID-induced consumer boom.
Contract rates were far higher than spot rates on average as 2022 turned to 2023, but as contract are renewed or renegotiated, that gap is set to be bridged.
Finding ways to cut capacity is becoming ever more urgent. The DHL Ocean Freight Market Outlook 2023 report noted that carriers have spent a lot of their profits on new container ships and demand is expected to be sluggish.
The report highlighted that some 7.5M TEU are in the orderbooks and 2.3M TEU of new capacity is expected to arrive next year. “Further measures to control capacity are expected to be implemented, such as blank sailings, slow steaming, idling, scrapping and the postponement of deliveries.
RELATED ARTICLESDHL Ocean Freight Market Update Outlook 2023Challenges faced by shippers are set to persist at least for the first half of 2023.“Depressed consumer behavior would likely impact demand at least through the first half of 2023, with any possible recovery only starting in the second half of the year at the earliest,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.
“My advice to customers is to try and forecast accurately, choose a partner that can offer carrier and mode flexibility, and allow for sufficient lead times in case of disruptions.”
Dominique von Orelli, Global Head, Ocean Freight, DHL Global Forwarding, added that there could be the “first signs of a possible reshuffling carrier landscape, though this will most likely not happen in 2023”.
He added: “I also expect an increased focus on sustainable logistics to drive decision making.”] =>
敦豪全球货运海运部全球主管Dominique von Orelli补充道，可能出现“航运公司格局重新洗牌的初步迹象，尽管这很可能不会在2023年发生”。
他补充道：“我同样预计，增加对可持续物流的关注将进一步推动决策。”
[] =>
[positive-cautious-outlook-ocean-freight] => positive-cautious-outlook-ocean-freight
[improving-schedule-reliability-positive-end-year-key-image] => improving-schedule-reliability-positive-end-year-key-image
[dhl-ocean-freight-market-update-outlook-2023-key-image] => dhl-ocean-freight-market-update-outlook-2023-key-image
)
[$value] => “Depressed consumer behavior would likely impact demand at least through the first half of 2023, with any possible recovery only starting in the second half of the year at the earliest,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.
“My advice to customers is to try and forecast accurately, choose a partner that can offer carrier and mode flexibility, and allow for sufficient lead times in case of disruptions.”
Dominique von Orelli, Global Head, Ocean Freight, DHL Global Forwarding, added that there could be the “first signs of a possible reshuffling carrier landscape, though this will most likely not happen in 2023”.
He added: “I also expect an increased focus on sustainable logistics to drive decision making.”
)
简体中文