Array
(
[derick] => Array
(
[Despite softened rates from a Q2 slowdown, uncertainties loom heavily.] => 尽管第二季度经济放缓导致费率疲软，不确定因素仍在大举逼近。
[[]] =>
[Potential economic headwinds add stress to supply chain] => 潜在经济逆风导致供应链压力增加
[Liner reliability failures
All these disruptions manifest themselves, of course, in carrier schedule reliability. Sea-Intelligence’s latest Global Liner Performance (GLP) report found that global schedule reliability this year is largely following the trend seen in 2021, fluctuating within a small range but at a slightly lower base.
In May 2022, schedule reliability improved by 2.1 percentage points month-on-month to 36.4 percent, albeit still down year-on-year by 2.3 percentage points. “This means that the 2022 score has been slightly below the 2021 level in each of the first five months,” noted Sea-Intelligence.
The average delay for late vessel arrivals also decreased once again in May, dropping to 6.17 days. “The delay figure is now firmly below the 7-day mark, but it still continues to be the highest across each month when compared historically, albeit with the margin decreasing sharply,” said the analyst.
With schedule reliability of 50.3 percent, Maersk was the most reliable carrier in May 2022 followed by Hamburg Süd with 43.7 percent. There were six carriers with schedule reliability of 30 to 40 percent and six with schedule reliability of 20 percent-30 percent.
Economic clouds turn thunderous
Lower demand is the most obvious route out of the supply chain knots preventing carriers from improving their performance, albeit it being a bitter pill for most in the industry to swallow. And there is growing evidence that an economic downturn is underway.
The World Bank now expects global trade to decelerate to 4 percent year-on-year in 2022, while global growth in advanced economies is set to decelerate from 5.1 percent in 2021 to 2.6 percent in 2022. In emerging and developing economies, growth is forecast to fall from 6.6 percent in 2021 to 3.4 percent in 2022.
The U.S. economy might even turn recessionary during 2022. In June, Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell pointed to the “possibility” of a recession while analyst firm Nomura claims the country is “staring into the void”, with a mild recession starting in the fourth quarter “now more likely than not”.
Already the impact on trade is becoming apparent. Durable goods consumption jumped sharply above recent trends during the pandemic, due to constrained service activity and significant policy support. However, rapidly rising interest rates and deteriorating economic conditions are prompting a pullback in durable goods spending, a trend likely to continue through the rest of 2022 and 2023, according to Nomura.
“In particular, to some degree, durable goods consumption and home sales are interconnected and the recent deterioration in home affordability could weigh on durable goods consumption significantly,” said the analyst firm.
Nomura now expects US imports, which saw strong quarter-on-quarter growth through 2021 and the first six months of 2022, to turn negative until the third quarter of 2023.
In China there is growing evidence that manufacturing and new export orders are falling. President Xi’s strict lockdown policy, amongst other things, has prompted the World Bank to cut its real GDP forecast for Chinese growth to 4.3 percent, versus a government target of 5.5 percent and growth of 8.1 percent last year.
In Europe, there is almost no economic positivity and war is casting a long shadow. S&P Global’s June PMI survey data showed the eurozone manufacturing economy ended the second quarter on a low as production levels fell for the first time in two years. Total new business intakes and export orders both declined, while business confidence slid to a 25-month low.
Backlogs of work, which built up significantly throughout the pandemic, also fell for the first time in almost two years as companies focused on completing unfilled orders due to falling demand. “Demand is now weakening as firms report customers to be growing more cautious in relation to spending due to rising prices and the uncertain economic outlook,” said, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.
With inventories of both raw materials and unsold stock rising due to lower-than-expected production and sales volumes, respectively, Williamson said the downturn “looks set to gain momentum in the coming months”.] =>
降低需求是解决供应链问题的最直接方法，从而改善承运商的表现，但对于业内大多数承运商而言是难以下咽的苦果。越来越多的证据表明经济衰退正在发生。
世界银行预测，2022年，全球贸易同比增长速度将下降到4％，而全球发达经济体的经济增长率将从2021年的5.1％下降到2022年的2.6％。对于新兴经济体和发展中经济体，增长率预计将从2021年的6.6％下降到2022年的3.4％。
2022年，美国经济甚至可能发生衰退。6月，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔指出了衰退的“可能性”，而野村证券的分析师称美国正在“走向虚无”，第四季度“极有可能”发生轻微的衰退。
贸易受到的影响已经开始变得明显。疫情期间，因为服务活动受到限制而且政策支持力度加大，耐用品消费额大幅上升，超出了近期趋势。然而，野村证券称，迅速上升的利率和恶化的经济状况导致耐用品支出回落，而且这个趋势很可能在2022年剩余时间和2023年持续下去。
“尤其是，耐用品消费与住房销售在一定程度上是相互关联的，而最近住房购买力的下降有可能对耐用品消费造成显著影响，”该公司称。
野村证券目前预计，2021年全年和2022年上半年季度环比增幅显著的美国进口额将开始下降，直至2023年第三季度。
在中国，有越来越多的证据表明制造业和新增出口订单正在减少。特别是由于习近平主席实行的严格封控政策，导致世界银行将中国实际GDP增长预测下调到4.3％，而政府设定的目标是5.5％，去年增长率为8.1％。
在欧洲，几乎没有经济好转的迹象，俄乌战争将产生深远的影响。标普全球6月采购经理人指数调查数据表明，第二季度末，由于生产水平在过去两年内首次下降，欧元区制造业经济处于低位。总新增业务量和出口订单总量均下降，而企业信心下滑到过去25个月内的最低水平。
随着需求减少，由于各公司将重点放在未交付订单上，整个疫情期间显著增加的积压工作量也在过去近两年内首次下降。“各公司称，由于物价上涨和经济前景不明朗，客户在支出方面更加谨慎，因此需求开始疲软，”S&P全球市场情报首席商业经济学家Chris Williamson说道。
由于产量和销量低于预期，原料库存和未出售存货均有所增加，Williamson称这种衰退趋势“似乎注定将在未来几个月内增强”。
[What next?
Bjorn Vang Jensen, VP Advisory Services - Global Supply Chain at Sea-Intelligence, had previously predicted that the current bull run for container lines would “probably end around Q3, 2023” unless there was a global recession. However, he said even if there was a sharp drop in the container market due to a major economic contraction, it was unlikely that carriers would be back to loss-making rates, although freight rates would inevitably fall. “Newton's Third Law will now do its thing, as it always has,” he said.
Dominique von Orelli, Global Head, Ocean Freight, DHL Global Forwarding, added: “The global economy would need a major correction to entirely rid our industry of container line scheduling reliability issues. That doesn’t seem likely based on current forecasting. I expect flexibility will be critical to supply chain success and cohesion through the third quarter and beyond.”] =>
接下来会发生什么？
Sea-Intelligence咨询服务－全球供应链副总裁Bjorn Vang Jensen曾经预测，集装箱航线目前的繁荣“很可能将在2023年第三季度前后结束”，除非发生全球经济衰退。然而，他说，即使集装箱市场由于重大经济萎缩发生急剧衰退，承运商也不可能让费率回到注定亏损的水平――尽管运费费率不可避免地会下降。“牛顿第三定律将一如既往地发挥作用，”他说道。
DGF海运部全球主管Dominique von Orelli补充道，“全球经济需要进行一次重大修正，才能完全解决业内集装箱航线船期的可靠性问题。根据目前的预测，这种情况似乎不太可能发生。我预计，到今年第三季度及之后，供应链取得成功和连贯性的关键在于灵活变通。”
[With the peak season looming for container shipping, two trends are likely to shape markets in the coming weeks and months.
Firstly, in terms of demand for goods usually shipped on the major East-West trades, the consensus view is turning bearish as economic growth slows, inflation drags on confidence and bottom lines, and the war in Ukraine continues to dog the supply chain.
Secondly, even though freight rates have softened so far this year, global supply chains remain taut and vulnerable to further disruptions despite a Q2 slowdown.
The unknowns ahead of peak season
However, what is not certain is the extent of the impact brought on by the incoming global recession or how far demand for container shipping might decline when key markets start to contract.
Moreover, even if demand for container shipping drops significantly, most analysts believe it will still take multiple quarters to get liner schedules back on track, ports decongested and empties back in position. Indeed, even though demand softened in Q2, very little progress was made on improving liner schedule reliability.
Heading into the third quarter peak season then, this means that even a slight uptick in volumes from Q2 - the traditional quiet period for container shipping – would likely see port congestion in the US and Europe deteriorate further. This would inevitably take vessel shipping capacity out of the supply-demand equation, add to local equipment shortages and, most likely, push spot freight rates back up.
“There is no doubt that many economic metrics have taken a turn for the worse and some markets could be heading towards a slowdown, but how hard any landing might be is not yet clear,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific. “What is clear is that a lot of cargo is still being shipped and supply chain bottlenecks are apparent around the world.
Ongoing logjams
Certainly, multiple choke points continue to impact the efficiency of ocean supply chains, while the risk remains high that more will appear later this year. For example, China’s strict Covid-19 lockdowns have now been eased, especially around Shanghai, but there are no guarantees that more lockdowns will not follow later this year.
In Europe, northern hub terminals are struggling to ship out empties and vessel turnaround times have increased, adding to transit times. Hinterland rail, barge and road operators are also wrestling with capacity shortages.
DHL’s July Ocean Freight Market Update notes that port congestion in Europe is still a major issue. This is prompting delays to schedules and more blank sailings from carriers. The update also highlights that the equipment situation also remains tight, especially for 40ft high cube container equipment.
A number of keys ports has also been subject to industrial action as inflation prompts unions to ramp up strikes in search of higher pay.
Congestion also continues to blight east coast US ports as shippers have sought to avoid US west coast ports where union representatives and employers are currently negotiating a new contract after the previous multi-year settlement expired at the end of June.
More disruption could easily follow later this year if negotiations do not progress smoothly, while a strike could potentially shut down 29 ports, including the Los Angeles and Long Beach complex so critical to trans-Pacific logistics.] => 随着集装箱运输的旺季即将来临，有两大趋势很可能决定未来几周和几个月内的市场状况。
首先，就东西方主要贸易航线通常运输的货物的需求而言，随着经济增长放缓、通胀拖累信心和底线以及俄乌战争继续困扰供应链，业内观点一致转向看跌。
其次，即使今年到目前为止运费费率一直在下降，第二季度经济增长也放缓，全球供应链仍处于紧张状态而且容易受进一步干扰的影响。
毫无疑问，多个瓶颈继续对海洋供应链的运行效率造成影响，而且今年晚些时候出现更多瓶颈的风险仍然很高。例如，中国严格的新冠疫情防控措施目前已经解除，尤其是上海一带，但无法保证今年晚些时候会不会再次出现多地封锁的情况。
在欧洲，北部枢纽港正在努力运出空箱，而船只周转时间延长了，从而导致运输时间增加。内陆铁路、驳船和公路运营商也在努力解决运力短缺问题。
DHL的《7月海运市场最新消息》指出，欧洲港口拥塞仍然十分严重，导致船期延误以及更多的承运商空船航行。该《最新消息》还强调，设备供应仍然非常紧张，尤其是40英尺高柜。
由于通胀，工会加大罢工力度以谋求更高的报酬，多个主要港口也受到影响。
美国东海岸港口继续承受港口拥塞之苦，因为在美国西海岸港口，随着先前的多年协议在6月底到期，工会代表正在与雇主协商新合同，因此承运商都试图避开美国西海岸港口。
如果谈判不顺利，那么今年晚些时候更多不利因素会显现，而罢工有可能导致29个港口关闭，包括对跨太平洋物流至关重要的洛杉矶港和长岛港。
[wysiwyg] => wysiwyg
[outbound_box] => outbound_box
[Despite softened rates from a Q2 slowdown, uncertainties loom heavily. With the peak season looming for container shipping, two trends are likely to shape markets in the coming weeks and months.
Firstly, in terms of demand for goods usually shipped on the major East-West trades, the consensus view is turning bearish as economic growth slows, inflation drags on confidence and bottom lines, and the war in Ukraine continues to dog the supply chain.
Secondly, even though freight rates have softened so far this year, global supply chains remain taut and vulnerable to further disruptions despite a Q2 slowdown.
The unknowns ahead of peak season
However, what is not certain is the extent of the impact brought on by the incoming global recession or how far demand for container shipping might decline when key markets start to contract.
Moreover, even if demand for container shipping drops significantly, most analysts believe it will still take multiple quarters to get liner schedules back on track, ports decongested and empties back in position. Indeed, even though demand softened in Q2, very little progress was made on improving liner schedule reliability.
Heading into the third quarter peak season then, this means that even a slight uptick in volumes from Q2 – the traditional quiet period for container shipping – would likely see port congestion in the US and Europe deteriorate further. This would inevitably take vessel shipping capacity out of the supply-demand equation, add to local equipment shortages and, most likely, push spot freight rates back up.
“There is no doubt that many economic metrics have taken a turn for the worse and some markets could be heading towards a slowdown, but how hard any landing might be is not yet clear,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific. “What is clear is that a lot of cargo is still being shipped and supply chain bottlenecks are apparent around the world.
Ongoing logjams
Certainly, multiple choke points continue to impact the efficiency of ocean supply chains, while the risk remains high that more will appear later this year. For example, China’s strict Covid-19 lockdowns have now been eased, especially around Shanghai, but there are no guarantees that more lockdowns will not follow later this year.
In Europe, northern hub terminals are struggling to ship out empties and vessel turnaround times have increased, adding to transit times. Hinterland rail, barge and road operators are also wrestling with capacity shortages.
DHL’s July Ocean Freight Market Update notes that port congestion in Europe is still a major issue. This is prompting delays to schedules and more blank sailings from carriers. The update also highlights that the equipment situation also remains tight, especially for 40ft high cube container equipment.
A number of keys ports has also been subject to industrial action as inflation prompts unions to ramp up strikes in search of higher pay.
Congestion also continues to blight east coast US ports as shippers have sought to avoid US west coast ports where union representatives and employers are currently negotiating a new contract after the previous multi-year settlement expired at the end of June.
More disruption could easily follow later this year if negotiations do not progress smoothly, while a strike could potentially shut down 29 ports, including the Los Angeles and Long Beach complex so critical to trans-Pacific logistics.
RELATED ARTICLESDHL Ocean Freight Market Update – July 2022Find out the latest developments of the global ocean freight market in this monthly analysis by DHL Global Forwarding.Liner reliability failures
All these disruptions manifest themselves, of course, in carrier schedule reliability. Sea-Intelligence’s latest Global Liner Performance (GLP) report found that global schedule reliability this year is largely following the trend seen in 2021, fluctuating within a small range but at a slightly lower base.
In May 2022, schedule reliability improved by 2.1 percentage points month-on-month to 36.4 percent, albeit still down year-on-year by 2.3 percentage points. “This means that the 2022 score has been slightly below the 2021 level in each of the first five months,” noted Sea-Intelligence.
The average delay for late vessel arrivals also decreased once again in May, dropping to 6.17 days. “The delay figure is now firmly below the 7-day mark, but it still continues to be the highest across each month when compared historically, albeit with the margin decreasing sharply,” said the analyst.
With schedule reliability of 50.3 percent, Maersk was the most reliable carrier in May 2022 followed by Hamburg Süd with 43.7 percent. There were six carriers with schedule reliability of 30 to 40 percent and six with schedule reliability of 20 percent-30 percent.
Economic clouds turn thunderous
Lower demand is the most obvious route out of the supply chain knots preventing carriers from improving their performance, albeit it being a bitter pill for most in the industry to swallow. And there is growing evidence that an economic downturn is underway.
The World Bank now expects global trade to decelerate to 4 percent year-on-year in 2022, while global growth in advanced economies is set to decelerate from 5.1 percent in 2021 to 2.6 percent in 2022. In emerging and developing economies, growth is forecast to fall from 6.6 percent in 2021 to 3.4 percent in 2022.
The U.S. economy might even turn recessionary during 2022. In June, Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell pointed to the “possibility” of a recession while analyst firm Nomura claims the country is “staring into the void”, with a mild recession starting in the fourth quarter “now more likely than not”.
Already the impact on trade is becoming apparent. Durable goods consumption jumped sharply above recent trends during the pandemic, due to constrained service activity and significant policy support. However, rapidly rising interest rates and deteriorating economic conditions are prompting a pullback in durable goods spending, a trend likely to continue through the rest of 2022 and 2023, according to Nomura.
“In particular, to some degree, durable goods consumption and home sales are interconnected and the recent deterioration in home affordability could weigh on durable goods consumption significantly,” said the analyst firm.
Nomura now expects US imports, which saw strong quarter-on-quarter growth through 2021 and the first six months of 2022, to turn negative until the third quarter of 2023.
In China there is growing evidence that manufacturing and new export orders are falling. President Xi’s strict lockdown policy, amongst other things, has prompted the World Bank to cut its real GDP forecast for Chinese growth to 4.3 percent, versus a government target of 5.5 percent and growth of 8.1 percent last year.
In Europe, there is almost no economic positivity and war is casting a long shadow. S&P Global’s June PMI survey data showed the eurozone manufacturing economy ended the second quarter on a low as production levels fell for the first time in two years. Total new business intakes and export orders both declined, while business confidence slid to a 25-month low.
Backlogs of work, which built up significantly throughout the pandemic, also fell for the first time in almost two years as companies focused on completing unfilled orders due to falling demand. “Demand is now weakening as firms report customers to be growing more cautious in relation to spending due to rising prices and the uncertain economic outlook,” said, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.
With inventories of both raw materials and unsold stock rising due to lower-than-expected production and sales volumes, respectively, Williamson said the downturn “looks set to gain momentum in the coming months”.
RELATED ARTICLESTemper expectations of quick recovery after end of China lockdownsFreight rates are expected to normalize in 2023, but unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels.What next?
Bjorn Vang Jensen, VP Advisory Services – Global Supply Chain at Sea-Intelligence, had previously predicted that the current bull run for container lines would “probably end around Q3, 2023” unless there was a global recession. However, he said even if there was a sharp drop in the container market due to a major economic contraction, it was unlikely that carriers would be back to loss-making rates, although freight rates would inevitably fall. “Newton’s Third Law will now do its thing, as it always has,” he said.
Dominique von Orelli, Global Head, Ocean Freight, DHL Global Forwarding, added: “The global economy would need a major correction to entirely rid our industry of container line scheduling reliability issues. That doesn’t seem likely based on current forecasting. I expect flexibility will be critical to supply chain success and cohesion through the third quarter and beyond.”] =>
DGF海运部全球主管Dominique von Orelli补充道，“全球经济需要进行一次重大修正，才能完全解决业内集装箱航线船期的可靠性问题。根据目前的预测，这种情况似乎不太可能发生。我预计，到今年第三季度及之后，供应链取得成功和连贯性的关键在于灵活变通。”
[] =>
[potential-economic-headwinds-add-stress-to-supply-chain] => potential-economic-headwinds-add-stress-to-supply-chain
[freight rate] =>
[port congestion] =>
[OFR-July-2022-key-image] => OFR-July-2022-key-image
[DHL Ocean Freight Market Update – July 2022] => DHL Ocean Freight Market Update – July 2022
[temper-expectations-end-of-china-lockdowns-key-image] => temper-expectations-end-of-china-lockdowns-key-image
[Temper expectations of quick recovery after end of China lockdowns] => Temper expectations of quick recovery after end of China lockdowns
)
[$value] => With the peak season looming for container shipping, two trends are likely to shape markets in the coming weeks and months.
Firstly, in terms of demand for goods usually shipped on the major East-West trades, the consensus view is turning bearish as economic growth slows, inflation drags on confidence and bottom lines, and the war in Ukraine continues to dog the supply chain.
Secondly, even though freight rates have softened so far this year, global supply chains remain taut and vulnerable to further disruptions despite a Q2 slowdown.
The unknowns ahead of peak season
However, what is not certain is the extent of the impact brought on by the incoming global recession or how far demand for container shipping might decline when key markets start to contract.
Moreover, even if demand for container shipping drops significantly, most analysts believe it will still take multiple quarters to get liner schedules back on track, ports decongested and empties back in position. Indeed, even though demand softened in Q2, very little progress was made on improving liner schedule reliability.
Heading into the third quarter peak season then, this means that even a slight uptick in volumes from Q2 - the traditional quiet period for container shipping – would likely see port congestion in the US and Europe deteriorate further. This would inevitably take vessel shipping capacity out of the supply-demand equation, add to local equipment shortages and, most likely, push spot freight rates back up.
“There is no doubt that many economic metrics have taken a turn for the worse and some markets could be heading towards a slowdown, but how hard any landing might be is not yet clear,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific. “What is clear is that a lot of cargo is still being shipped and supply chain bottlenecks are apparent around the world.
Ongoing logjams
Certainly, multiple choke points continue to impact the efficiency of ocean supply chains, while the risk remains high that more will appear later this year. For example, China’s strict Covid-19 lockdowns have now been eased, especially around Shanghai, but there are no guarantees that more lockdowns will not follow later this year.
In Europe, northern hub terminals are struggling to ship out empties and vessel turnaround times have increased, adding to transit times. Hinterland rail, barge and road operators are also wrestling with capacity shortages.
DHL’s July Ocean Freight Market Update notes that port congestion in Europe is still a major issue. This is prompting delays to schedules and more blank sailings from carriers. The update also highlights that the equipment situation also remains tight, especially for 40ft high cube container equipment.
A number of keys ports has also been subject to industrial action as inflation prompts unions to ramp up strikes in search of higher pay.
Congestion also continues to blight east coast US ports as shippers have sought to avoid US west coast ports where union representatives and employers are currently negotiating a new contract after the previous multi-year settlement expired at the end of June.
More disruption could easily follow later this year if negotiations do not progress smoothly, while a strike could potentially shut down 29 ports, including the Los Angeles and Long Beach complex so critical to trans-Pacific logistics.
)
Array
(
[derick] => Array
(
[Despite softened rates from a Q2 slowdown, uncertainties loom heavily.] => 尽管第二季度经济放缓导致费率疲软，不确定因素仍在大举逼近。
[[]] =>
[Potential economic headwinds add stress to supply chain] => 潜在经济逆风导致供应链压力增加
[Liner reliability failures
All these disruptions manifest themselves, of course, in carrier schedule reliability. Sea-Intelligence’s latest Global Liner Performance (GLP) report found that global schedule reliability this year is largely following the trend seen in 2021, fluctuating within a small range but at a slightly lower base.
In May 2022, schedule reliability improved by 2.1 percentage points month-on-month to 36.4 percent, albeit still down year-on-year by 2.3 percentage points. “This means that the 2022 score has been slightly below the 2021 level in each of the first five months,” noted Sea-Intelligence.
The average delay for late vessel arrivals also decreased once again in May, dropping to 6.17 days. “The delay figure is now firmly below the 7-day mark, but it still continues to be the highest across each month when compared historically, albeit with the margin decreasing sharply,” said the analyst.
With schedule reliability of 50.3 percent, Maersk was the most reliable carrier in May 2022 followed by Hamburg Süd with 43.7 percent. There were six carriers with schedule reliability of 30 to 40 percent and six with schedule reliability of 20 percent-30 percent.
Economic clouds turn thunderous
Lower demand is the most obvious route out of the supply chain knots preventing carriers from improving their performance, albeit it being a bitter pill for most in the industry to swallow. And there is growing evidence that an economic downturn is underway.
The World Bank now expects global trade to decelerate to 4 percent year-on-year in 2022, while global growth in advanced economies is set to decelerate from 5.1 percent in 2021 to 2.6 percent in 2022. In emerging and developing economies, growth is forecast to fall from 6.6 percent in 2021 to 3.4 percent in 2022.
The U.S. economy might even turn recessionary during 2022. In June, Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell pointed to the “possibility” of a recession while analyst firm Nomura claims the country is “staring into the void”, with a mild recession starting in the fourth quarter “now more likely than not”.
Already the impact on trade is becoming apparent. Durable goods consumption jumped sharply above recent trends during the pandemic, due to constrained service activity and significant policy support. However, rapidly rising interest rates and deteriorating economic conditions are prompting a pullback in durable goods spending, a trend likely to continue through the rest of 2022 and 2023, according to Nomura.
“In particular, to some degree, durable goods consumption and home sales are interconnected and the recent deterioration in home affordability could weigh on durable goods consumption significantly,” said the analyst firm.
Nomura now expects US imports, which saw strong quarter-on-quarter growth through 2021 and the first six months of 2022, to turn negative until the third quarter of 2023.
In China there is growing evidence that manufacturing and new export orders are falling. President Xi’s strict lockdown policy, amongst other things, has prompted the World Bank to cut its real GDP forecast for Chinese growth to 4.3 percent, versus a government target of 5.5 percent and growth of 8.1 percent last year.
In Europe, there is almost no economic positivity and war is casting a long shadow. S&P Global’s June PMI survey data showed the eurozone manufacturing economy ended the second quarter on a low as production levels fell for the first time in two years. Total new business intakes and export orders both declined, while business confidence slid to a 25-month low.
Backlogs of work, which built up significantly throughout the pandemic, also fell for the first time in almost two years as companies focused on completing unfilled orders due to falling demand. “Demand is now weakening as firms report customers to be growing more cautious in relation to spending due to rising prices and the uncertain economic outlook,” said, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.
With inventories of both raw materials and unsold stock rising due to lower-than-expected production and sales volumes, respectively, Williamson said the downturn “looks set to gain momentum in the coming months”.] =>
降低需求是解决供应链问题的最直接方法，从而改善承运商的表现，但对于业内大多数承运商而言是难以下咽的苦果。越来越多的证据表明经济衰退正在发生。
世界银行预测，2022年，全球贸易同比增长速度将下降到4％，而全球发达经济体的经济增长率将从2021年的5.1％下降到2022年的2.6％。对于新兴经济体和发展中经济体，增长率预计将从2021年的6.6％下降到2022年的3.4％。
2022年，美国经济甚至可能发生衰退。6月，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔指出了衰退的“可能性”，而野村证券的分析师称美国正在“走向虚无”，第四季度“极有可能”发生轻微的衰退。
贸易受到的影响已经开始变得明显。疫情期间，因为服务活动受到限制而且政策支持力度加大，耐用品消费额大幅上升，超出了近期趋势。然而，野村证券称，迅速上升的利率和恶化的经济状况导致耐用品支出回落，而且这个趋势很可能在2022年剩余时间和2023年持续下去。
“尤其是，耐用品消费与住房销售在一定程度上是相互关联的，而最近住房购买力的下降有可能对耐用品消费造成显著影响，”该公司称。
野村证券目前预计，2021年全年和2022年上半年季度环比增幅显著的美国进口额将开始下降，直至2023年第三季度。
在中国，有越来越多的证据表明制造业和新增出口订单正在减少。特别是由于习近平主席实行的严格封控政策，导致世界银行将中国实际GDP增长预测下调到4.3％，而政府设定的目标是5.5％，去年增长率为8.1％。
在欧洲，几乎没有经济好转的迹象，俄乌战争将产生深远的影响。标普全球6月采购经理人指数调查数据表明，第二季度末，由于生产水平在过去两年内首次下降，欧元区制造业经济处于低位。总新增业务量和出口订单总量均下降，而企业信心下滑到过去25个月内的最低水平。
随着需求减少，由于各公司将重点放在未交付订单上，整个疫情期间显著增加的积压工作量也在过去近两年内首次下降。“各公司称，由于物价上涨和经济前景不明朗，客户在支出方面更加谨慎，因此需求开始疲软，”S&P全球市场情报首席商业经济学家Chris Williamson说道。
由于产量和销量低于预期，原料库存和未出售存货均有所增加，Williamson称这种衰退趋势“似乎注定将在未来几个月内增强”。
[What next?
Bjorn Vang Jensen, VP Advisory Services - Global Supply Chain at Sea-Intelligence, had previously predicted that the current bull run for container lines would “probably end around Q3, 2023” unless there was a global recession. However, he said even if there was a sharp drop in the container market due to a major economic contraction, it was unlikely that carriers would be back to loss-making rates, although freight rates would inevitably fall. “Newton's Third Law will now do its thing, as it always has,” he said.
Dominique von Orelli, Global Head, Ocean Freight, DHL Global Forwarding, added: “The global economy would need a major correction to entirely rid our industry of container line scheduling reliability issues. That doesn’t seem likely based on current forecasting. I expect flexibility will be critical to supply chain success and cohesion through the third quarter and beyond.”] =>
接下来会发生什么？
Sea-Intelligence咨询服务－全球供应链副总裁Bjorn Vang Jensen曾经预测，集装箱航线目前的繁荣“很可能将在2023年第三季度前后结束”，除非发生全球经济衰退。然而，他说，即使集装箱市场由于重大经济萎缩发生急剧衰退，承运商也不可能让费率回到注定亏损的水平――尽管运费费率不可避免地会下降。“牛顿第三定律将一如既往地发挥作用，”他说道。
DGF海运部全球主管Dominique von Orelli补充道，“全球经济需要进行一次重大修正，才能完全解决业内集装箱航线船期的可靠性问题。根据目前的预测，这种情况似乎不太可能发生。我预计，到今年第三季度及之后，供应链取得成功和连贯性的关键在于灵活变通。”
[With the peak season looming for container shipping, two trends are likely to shape markets in the coming weeks and months.
Firstly, in terms of demand for goods usually shipped on the major East-West trades, the consensus view is turning bearish as economic growth slows, inflation drags on confidence and bottom lines, and the war in Ukraine continues to dog the supply chain.
Secondly, even though freight rates have softened so far this year, global supply chains remain taut and vulnerable to further disruptions despite a Q2 slowdown.
The unknowns ahead of peak season
However, what is not certain is the extent of the impact brought on by the incoming global recession or how far demand for container shipping might decline when key markets start to contract.
Moreover, even if demand for container shipping drops significantly, most analysts believe it will still take multiple quarters to get liner schedules back on track, ports decongested and empties back in position. Indeed, even though demand softened in Q2, very little progress was made on improving liner schedule reliability.
Heading into the third quarter peak season then, this means that even a slight uptick in volumes from Q2 - the traditional quiet period for container shipping – would likely see port congestion in the US and Europe deteriorate further. This would inevitably take vessel shipping capacity out of the supply-demand equation, add to local equipment shortages and, most likely, push spot freight rates back up.
“There is no doubt that many economic metrics have taken a turn for the worse and some markets could be heading towards a slowdown, but how hard any landing might be is not yet clear,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific. “What is clear is that a lot of cargo is still being shipped and supply chain bottlenecks are apparent around the world.
Ongoing logjams
Certainly, multiple choke points continue to impact the efficiency of ocean supply chains, while the risk remains high that more will appear later this year. For example, China’s strict Covid-19 lockdowns have now been eased, especially around Shanghai, but there are no guarantees that more lockdowns will not follow later this year.
In Europe, northern hub terminals are struggling to ship out empties and vessel turnaround times have increased, adding to transit times. Hinterland rail, barge and road operators are also wrestling with capacity shortages.
DHL’s July Ocean Freight Market Update notes that port congestion in Europe is still a major issue. This is prompting delays to schedules and more blank sailings from carriers. The update also highlights that the equipment situation also remains tight, especially for 40ft high cube container equipment.
A number of keys ports has also been subject to industrial action as inflation prompts unions to ramp up strikes in search of higher pay.
Congestion also continues to blight east coast US ports as shippers have sought to avoid US west coast ports where union representatives and employers are currently negotiating a new contract after the previous multi-year settlement expired at the end of June.
More disruption could easily follow later this year if negotiations do not progress smoothly, while a strike could potentially shut down 29 ports, including the Los Angeles and Long Beach complex so critical to trans-Pacific logistics.] => 随着集装箱运输的旺季即将来临，有两大趋势很可能决定未来几周和几个月内的市场状况。
首先，就东西方主要贸易航线通常运输的货物的需求而言，随着经济增长放缓、通胀拖累信心和底线以及俄乌战争继续困扰供应链，业内观点一致转向看跌。
其次，即使今年到目前为止运费费率一直在下降，第二季度经济增长也放缓，全球供应链仍处于紧张状态而且容易受进一步干扰的影响。
毫无疑问，多个瓶颈继续对海洋供应链的运行效率造成影响，而且今年晚些时候出现更多瓶颈的风险仍然很高。例如，中国严格的新冠疫情防控措施目前已经解除，尤其是上海一带，但无法保证今年晚些时候会不会再次出现多地封锁的情况。
在欧洲，北部枢纽港正在努力运出空箱，而船只周转时间延长了，从而导致运输时间增加。内陆铁路、驳船和公路运营商也在努力解决运力短缺问题。
DHL的《7月海运市场最新消息》指出，欧洲港口拥塞仍然十分严重，导致船期延误以及更多的承运商空船航行。该《最新消息》还强调，设备供应仍然非常紧张，尤其是40英尺高柜。
由于通胀，工会加大罢工力度以谋求更高的报酬，多个主要港口也受到影响。
美国东海岸港口继续承受港口拥塞之苦，因为在美国西海岸港口，随着先前的多年协议在6月底到期，工会代表正在与雇主协商新合同，因此承运商都试图避开美国西海岸港口。
如果谈判不顺利，那么今年晚些时候更多不利因素会显现，而罢工有可能导致29个港口关闭，包括对跨太平洋物流至关重要的洛杉矶港和长岛港。
[wysiwyg] => wysiwyg
[outbound_box] => outbound_box
[Despite softened rates from a Q2 slowdown, uncertainties loom heavily. With the peak season looming for container shipping, two trends are likely to shape markets in the coming weeks and months.
Firstly, in terms of demand for goods usually shipped on the major East-West trades, the consensus view is turning bearish as economic growth slows, inflation drags on confidence and bottom lines, and the war in Ukraine continues to dog the supply chain.
Secondly, even though freight rates have softened so far this year, global supply chains remain taut and vulnerable to further disruptions despite a Q2 slowdown.
The unknowns ahead of peak season
However, what is not certain is the extent of the impact brought on by the incoming global recession or how far demand for container shipping might decline when key markets start to contract.
Moreover, even if demand for container shipping drops significantly, most analysts believe it will still take multiple quarters to get liner schedules back on track, ports decongested and empties back in position. Indeed, even though demand softened in Q2, very little progress was made on improving liner schedule reliability.
Heading into the third quarter peak season then, this means that even a slight uptick in volumes from Q2 – the traditional quiet period for container shipping – would likely see port congestion in the US and Europe deteriorate further. This would inevitably take vessel shipping capacity out of the supply-demand equation, add to local equipment shortages and, most likely, push spot freight rates back up.
“There is no doubt that many economic metrics have taken a turn for the worse and some markets could be heading towards a slowdown, but how hard any landing might be is not yet clear,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific. “What is clear is that a lot of cargo is still being shipped and supply chain bottlenecks are apparent around the world.
Ongoing logjams
Certainly, multiple choke points continue to impact the efficiency of ocean supply chains, while the risk remains high that more will appear later this year. For example, China’s strict Covid-19 lockdowns have now been eased, especially around Shanghai, but there are no guarantees that more lockdowns will not follow later this year.
In Europe, northern hub terminals are struggling to ship out empties and vessel turnaround times have increased, adding to transit times. Hinterland rail, barge and road operators are also wrestling with capacity shortages.
DHL’s July Ocean Freight Market Update notes that port congestion in Europe is still a major issue. This is prompting delays to schedules and more blank sailings from carriers. The update also highlights that the equipment situation also remains tight, especially for 40ft high cube container equipment.
A number of keys ports has also been subject to industrial action as inflation prompts unions to ramp up strikes in search of higher pay.
Congestion also continues to blight east coast US ports as shippers have sought to avoid US west coast ports where union representatives and employers are currently negotiating a new contract after the previous multi-year settlement expired at the end of June.
More disruption could easily follow later this year if negotiations do not progress smoothly, while a strike could potentially shut down 29 ports, including the Los Angeles and Long Beach complex so critical to trans-Pacific logistics.
RELATED ARTICLESDHL Ocean Freight Market Update – July 2022Find out the latest developments of the global ocean freight market in this monthly analysis by DHL Global Forwarding.Liner reliability failures
All these disruptions manifest themselves, of course, in carrier schedule reliability. Sea-Intelligence’s latest Global Liner Performance (GLP) report found that global schedule reliability this year is largely following the trend seen in 2021, fluctuating within a small range but at a slightly lower base.
In May 2022, schedule reliability improved by 2.1 percentage points month-on-month to 36.4 percent, albeit still down year-on-year by 2.3 percentage points. “This means that the 2022 score has been slightly below the 2021 level in each of the first five months,” noted Sea-Intelligence.
The average delay for late vessel arrivals also decreased once again in May, dropping to 6.17 days. “The delay figure is now firmly below the 7-day mark, but it still continues to be the highest across each month when compared historically, albeit with the margin decreasing sharply,” said the analyst.
With schedule reliability of 50.3 percent, Maersk was the most reliable carrier in May 2022 followed by Hamburg Süd with 43.7 percent. There were six carriers with schedule reliability of 30 to 40 percent and six with schedule reliability of 20 percent-30 percent.
Economic clouds turn thunderous
Lower demand is the most obvious route out of the supply chain knots preventing carriers from improving their performance, albeit it being a bitter pill for most in the industry to swallow. And there is growing evidence that an economic downturn is underway.
The World Bank now expects global trade to decelerate to 4 percent year-on-year in 2022, while global growth in advanced economies is set to decelerate from 5.1 percent in 2021 to 2.6 percent in 2022. In emerging and developing economies, growth is forecast to fall from 6.6 percent in 2021 to 3.4 percent in 2022.
The U.S. economy might even turn recessionary during 2022. In June, Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell pointed to the “possibility” of a recession while analyst firm Nomura claims the country is “staring into the void”, with a mild recession starting in the fourth quarter “now more likely than not”.
Already the impact on trade is becoming apparent. Durable goods consumption jumped sharply above recent trends during the pandemic, due to constrained service activity and significant policy support. However, rapidly rising interest rates and deteriorating economic conditions are prompting a pullback in durable goods spending, a trend likely to continue through the rest of 2022 and 2023, according to Nomura.
“In particular, to some degree, durable goods consumption and home sales are interconnected and the recent deterioration in home affordability could weigh on durable goods consumption significantly,” said the analyst firm.
Nomura now expects US imports, which saw strong quarter-on-quarter growth through 2021 and the first six months of 2022, to turn negative until the third quarter of 2023.
In China there is growing evidence that manufacturing and new export orders are falling. President Xi’s strict lockdown policy, amongst other things, has prompted the World Bank to cut its real GDP forecast for Chinese growth to 4.3 percent, versus a government target of 5.5 percent and growth of 8.1 percent last year.
In Europe, there is almost no economic positivity and war is casting a long shadow. S&P Global’s June PMI survey data showed the eurozone manufacturing economy ended the second quarter on a low as production levels fell for the first time in two years. Total new business intakes and export orders both declined, while business confidence slid to a 25-month low.
Backlogs of work, which built up significantly throughout the pandemic, also fell for the first time in almost two years as companies focused on completing unfilled orders due to falling demand. “Demand is now weakening as firms report customers to be growing more cautious in relation to spending due to rising prices and the uncertain economic outlook,” said, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.
With inventories of both raw materials and unsold stock rising due to lower-than-expected production and sales volumes, respectively, Williamson said the downturn “looks set to gain momentum in the coming months”.
RELATED ARTICLESTemper expectations of quick recovery after end of China lockdownsFreight rates are expected to normalize in 2023, but unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels.What next?
Bjorn Vang Jensen, VP Advisory Services – Global Supply Chain at Sea-Intelligence, had previously predicted that the current bull run for container lines would “probably end around Q3, 2023” unless there was a global recession. However, he said even if there was a sharp drop in the container market due to a major economic contraction, it was unlikely that carriers would be back to loss-making rates, although freight rates would inevitably fall. “Newton’s Third Law will now do its thing, as it always has,” he said.
Dominique von Orelli, Global Head, Ocean Freight, DHL Global Forwarding, added: “The global economy would need a major correction to entirely rid our industry of container line scheduling reliability issues. That doesn’t seem likely based on current forecasting. I expect flexibility will be critical to supply chain success and cohesion through the third quarter and beyond.”] =>
DGF海运部全球主管Dominique von Orelli补充道，“全球经济需要进行一次重大修正，才能完全解决业内集装箱航线船期的可靠性问题。根据目前的预测，这种情况似乎不太可能发生。我预计，到今年第三季度及之后，供应链取得成功和连贯性的关键在于灵活变通。”
[] =>
[potential-economic-headwinds-add-stress-to-supply-chain] => potential-economic-headwinds-add-stress-to-supply-chain
[freight rate] =>
[port congestion] =>
[OFR-July-2022-key-image] => OFR-July-2022-key-image
[DHL Ocean Freight Market Update – July 2022] => DHL Ocean Freight Market Update – July 2022
[temper-expectations-end-of-china-lockdowns-key-image] => temper-expectations-end-of-china-lockdowns-key-image
[Temper expectations of quick recovery after end of China lockdowns] => Temper expectations of quick recovery after end of China lockdowns
)
[$value] => Liner reliability failures
All these disruptions manifest themselves, of course, in carrier schedule reliability. Sea-Intelligence’s latest Global Liner Performance (GLP) report found that global schedule reliability this year is largely following the trend seen in 2021, fluctuating within a small range but at a slightly lower base.
In May 2022, schedule reliability improved by 2.1 percentage points month-on-month to 36.4 percent, albeit still down year-on-year by 2.3 percentage points. “This means that the 2022 score has been slightly below the 2021 level in each of the first five months,” noted Sea-Intelligence.
The average delay for late vessel arrivals also decreased once again in May, dropping to 6.17 days. “The delay figure is now firmly below the 7-day mark, but it still continues to be the highest across each month when compared historically, albeit with the margin decreasing sharply,” said the analyst.
With schedule reliability of 50.3 percent, Maersk was the most reliable carrier in May 2022 followed by Hamburg Süd with 43.7 percent. There were six carriers with schedule reliability of 30 to 40 percent and six with schedule reliability of 20 percent-30 percent.
Economic clouds turn thunderous
Lower demand is the most obvious route out of the supply chain knots preventing carriers from improving their performance, albeit it being a bitter pill for most in the industry to swallow. And there is growing evidence that an economic downturn is underway.
The World Bank now expects global trade to decelerate to 4 percent year-on-year in 2022, while global growth in advanced economies is set to decelerate from 5.1 percent in 2021 to 2.6 percent in 2022. In emerging and developing economies, growth is forecast to fall from 6.6 percent in 2021 to 3.4 percent in 2022.
The U.S. economy might even turn recessionary during 2022. In June, Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell pointed to the “possibility” of a recession while analyst firm Nomura claims the country is “staring into the void”, with a mild recession starting in the fourth quarter “now more likely than not”.
Already the impact on trade is becoming apparent. Durable goods consumption jumped sharply above recent trends during the pandemic, due to constrained service activity and significant policy support. However, rapidly rising interest rates and deteriorating economic conditions are prompting a pullback in durable goods spending, a trend likely to continue through the rest of 2022 and 2023, according to Nomura.
“In particular, to some degree, durable goods consumption and home sales are interconnected and the recent deterioration in home affordability could weigh on durable goods consumption significantly,” said the analyst firm.
Nomura now expects US imports, which saw strong quarter-on-quarter growth through 2021 and the first six months of 2022, to turn negative until the third quarter of 2023.
In China there is growing evidence that manufacturing and new export orders are falling. President Xi’s strict lockdown policy, amongst other things, has prompted the World Bank to cut its real GDP forecast for Chinese growth to 4.3 percent, versus a government target of 5.5 percent and growth of 8.1 percent last year.
In Europe, there is almost no economic positivity and war is casting a long shadow. S&P Global’s June PMI survey data showed the eurozone manufacturing economy ended the second quarter on a low as production levels fell for the first time in two years. Total new business intakes and export orders both declined, while business confidence slid to a 25-month low.
Backlogs of work, which built up significantly throughout the pandemic, also fell for the first time in almost two years as companies focused on completing unfilled orders due to falling demand. “Demand is now weakening as firms report customers to be growing more cautious in relation to spending due to rising prices and the uncertain economic outlook,” said, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.
With inventories of both raw materials and unsold stock rising due to lower-than-expected production and sales volumes, respectively, Williamson said the downturn “looks set to gain momentum in the coming months”.
)
Array
(
[derick] => Array
(
[Despite softened rates from a Q2 slowdown, uncertainties loom heavily.] => 尽管第二季度经济放缓导致费率疲软，不确定因素仍在大举逼近。
[[]] =>
[Potential economic headwinds add stress to supply chain] => 潜在经济逆风导致供应链压力增加
[Liner reliability failures
All these disruptions manifest themselves, of course, in carrier schedule reliability. Sea-Intelligence’s latest Global Liner Performance (GLP) report found that global schedule reliability this year is largely following the trend seen in 2021, fluctuating within a small range but at a slightly lower base.
In May 2022, schedule reliability improved by 2.1 percentage points month-on-month to 36.4 percent, albeit still down year-on-year by 2.3 percentage points. “This means that the 2022 score has been slightly below the 2021 level in each of the first five months,” noted Sea-Intelligence.
The average delay for late vessel arrivals also decreased once again in May, dropping to 6.17 days. “The delay figure is now firmly below the 7-day mark, but it still continues to be the highest across each month when compared historically, albeit with the margin decreasing sharply,” said the analyst.
With schedule reliability of 50.3 percent, Maersk was the most reliable carrier in May 2022 followed by Hamburg Süd with 43.7 percent. There were six carriers with schedule reliability of 30 to 40 percent and six with schedule reliability of 20 percent-30 percent.
Economic clouds turn thunderous
Lower demand is the most obvious route out of the supply chain knots preventing carriers from improving their performance, albeit it being a bitter pill for most in the industry to swallow. And there is growing evidence that an economic downturn is underway.
The World Bank now expects global trade to decelerate to 4 percent year-on-year in 2022, while global growth in advanced economies is set to decelerate from 5.1 percent in 2021 to 2.6 percent in 2022. In emerging and developing economies, growth is forecast to fall from 6.6 percent in 2021 to 3.4 percent in 2022.
The U.S. economy might even turn recessionary during 2022. In June, Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell pointed to the “possibility” of a recession while analyst firm Nomura claims the country is “staring into the void”, with a mild recession starting in the fourth quarter “now more likely than not”.
Already the impact on trade is becoming apparent. Durable goods consumption jumped sharply above recent trends during the pandemic, due to constrained service activity and significant policy support. However, rapidly rising interest rates and deteriorating economic conditions are prompting a pullback in durable goods spending, a trend likely to continue through the rest of 2022 and 2023, according to Nomura.
“In particular, to some degree, durable goods consumption and home sales are interconnected and the recent deterioration in home affordability could weigh on durable goods consumption significantly,” said the analyst firm.
Nomura now expects US imports, which saw strong quarter-on-quarter growth through 2021 and the first six months of 2022, to turn negative until the third quarter of 2023.
In China there is growing evidence that manufacturing and new export orders are falling. President Xi’s strict lockdown policy, amongst other things, has prompted the World Bank to cut its real GDP forecast for Chinese growth to 4.3 percent, versus a government target of 5.5 percent and growth of 8.1 percent last year.
In Europe, there is almost no economic positivity and war is casting a long shadow. S&P Global’s June PMI survey data showed the eurozone manufacturing economy ended the second quarter on a low as production levels fell for the first time in two years. Total new business intakes and export orders both declined, while business confidence slid to a 25-month low.
Backlogs of work, which built up significantly throughout the pandemic, also fell for the first time in almost two years as companies focused on completing unfilled orders due to falling demand. “Demand is now weakening as firms report customers to be growing more cautious in relation to spending due to rising prices and the uncertain economic outlook,” said, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.
With inventories of both raw materials and unsold stock rising due to lower-than-expected production and sales volumes, respectively, Williamson said the downturn “looks set to gain momentum in the coming months”.] =>
降低需求是解决供应链问题的最直接方法，从而改善承运商的表现，但对于业内大多数承运商而言是难以下咽的苦果。越来越多的证据表明经济衰退正在发生。
世界银行预测，2022年，全球贸易同比增长速度将下降到4％，而全球发达经济体的经济增长率将从2021年的5.1％下降到2022年的2.6％。对于新兴经济体和发展中经济体，增长率预计将从2021年的6.6％下降到2022年的3.4％。
2022年，美国经济甚至可能发生衰退。6月，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔指出了衰退的“可能性”，而野村证券的分析师称美国正在“走向虚无”，第四季度“极有可能”发生轻微的衰退。
贸易受到的影响已经开始变得明显。疫情期间，因为服务活动受到限制而且政策支持力度加大，耐用品消费额大幅上升，超出了近期趋势。然而，野村证券称，迅速上升的利率和恶化的经济状况导致耐用品支出回落，而且这个趋势很可能在2022年剩余时间和2023年持续下去。
“尤其是，耐用品消费与住房销售在一定程度上是相互关联的，而最近住房购买力的下降有可能对耐用品消费造成显著影响，”该公司称。
野村证券目前预计，2021年全年和2022年上半年季度环比增幅显著的美国进口额将开始下降，直至2023年第三季度。
在中国，有越来越多的证据表明制造业和新增出口订单正在减少。特别是由于习近平主席实行的严格封控政策，导致世界银行将中国实际GDP增长预测下调到4.3％，而政府设定的目标是5.5％，去年增长率为8.1％。
在欧洲，几乎没有经济好转的迹象，俄乌战争将产生深远的影响。标普全球6月采购经理人指数调查数据表明，第二季度末，由于生产水平在过去两年内首次下降，欧元区制造业经济处于低位。总新增业务量和出口订单总量均下降，而企业信心下滑到过去25个月内的最低水平。
随着需求减少，由于各公司将重点放在未交付订单上，整个疫情期间显著增加的积压工作量也在过去近两年内首次下降。“各公司称，由于物价上涨和经济前景不明朗，客户在支出方面更加谨慎，因此需求开始疲软，”S&P全球市场情报首席商业经济学家Chris Williamson说道。
由于产量和销量低于预期，原料库存和未出售存货均有所增加，Williamson称这种衰退趋势“似乎注定将在未来几个月内增强”。
[What next?
Bjorn Vang Jensen, VP Advisory Services - Global Supply Chain at Sea-Intelligence, had previously predicted that the current bull run for container lines would “probably end around Q3, 2023” unless there was a global recession. However, he said even if there was a sharp drop in the container market due to a major economic contraction, it was unlikely that carriers would be back to loss-making rates, although freight rates would inevitably fall. “Newton's Third Law will now do its thing, as it always has,” he said.
Dominique von Orelli, Global Head, Ocean Freight, DHL Global Forwarding, added: “The global economy would need a major correction to entirely rid our industry of container line scheduling reliability issues. That doesn’t seem likely based on current forecasting. I expect flexibility will be critical to supply chain success and cohesion through the third quarter and beyond.”] =>
接下来会发生什么？
Sea-Intelligence咨询服务－全球供应链副总裁Bjorn Vang Jensen曾经预测，集装箱航线目前的繁荣“很可能将在2023年第三季度前后结束”，除非发生全球经济衰退。然而，他说，即使集装箱市场由于重大经济萎缩发生急剧衰退，承运商也不可能让费率回到注定亏损的水平――尽管运费费率不可避免地会下降。“牛顿第三定律将一如既往地发挥作用，”他说道。
DGF海运部全球主管Dominique von Orelli补充道，“全球经济需要进行一次重大修正，才能完全解决业内集装箱航线船期的可靠性问题。根据目前的预测，这种情况似乎不太可能发生。我预计，到今年第三季度及之后，供应链取得成功和连贯性的关键在于灵活变通。”
[With the peak season looming for container shipping, two trends are likely to shape markets in the coming weeks and months.
Firstly, in terms of demand for goods usually shipped on the major East-West trades, the consensus view is turning bearish as economic growth slows, inflation drags on confidence and bottom lines, and the war in Ukraine continues to dog the supply chain.
Secondly, even though freight rates have softened so far this year, global supply chains remain taut and vulnerable to further disruptions despite a Q2 slowdown.
The unknowns ahead of peak season
However, what is not certain is the extent of the impact brought on by the incoming global recession or how far demand for container shipping might decline when key markets start to contract.
Moreover, even if demand for container shipping drops significantly, most analysts believe it will still take multiple quarters to get liner schedules back on track, ports decongested and empties back in position. Indeed, even though demand softened in Q2, very little progress was made on improving liner schedule reliability.
Heading into the third quarter peak season then, this means that even a slight uptick in volumes from Q2 - the traditional quiet period for container shipping – would likely see port congestion in the US and Europe deteriorate further. This would inevitably take vessel shipping capacity out of the supply-demand equation, add to local equipment shortages and, most likely, push spot freight rates back up.
“There is no doubt that many economic metrics have taken a turn for the worse and some markets could be heading towards a slowdown, but how hard any landing might be is not yet clear,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific. “What is clear is that a lot of cargo is still being shipped and supply chain bottlenecks are apparent around the world.
Ongoing logjams
Certainly, multiple choke points continue to impact the efficiency of ocean supply chains, while the risk remains high that more will appear later this year. For example, China’s strict Covid-19 lockdowns have now been eased, especially around Shanghai, but there are no guarantees that more lockdowns will not follow later this year.
In Europe, northern hub terminals are struggling to ship out empties and vessel turnaround times have increased, adding to transit times. Hinterland rail, barge and road operators are also wrestling with capacity shortages.
DHL’s July Ocean Freight Market Update notes that port congestion in Europe is still a major issue. This is prompting delays to schedules and more blank sailings from carriers. The update also highlights that the equipment situation also remains tight, especially for 40ft high cube container equipment.
A number of keys ports has also been subject to industrial action as inflation prompts unions to ramp up strikes in search of higher pay.
Congestion also continues to blight east coast US ports as shippers have sought to avoid US west coast ports where union representatives and employers are currently negotiating a new contract after the previous multi-year settlement expired at the end of June.
More disruption could easily follow later this year if negotiations do not progress smoothly, while a strike could potentially shut down 29 ports, including the Los Angeles and Long Beach complex so critical to trans-Pacific logistics.] => 随着集装箱运输的旺季即将来临，有两大趋势很可能决定未来几周和几个月内的市场状况。
首先，就东西方主要贸易航线通常运输的货物的需求而言，随着经济增长放缓、通胀拖累信心和底线以及俄乌战争继续困扰供应链，业内观点一致转向看跌。
其次，即使今年到目前为止运费费率一直在下降，第二季度经济增长也放缓，全球供应链仍处于紧张状态而且容易受进一步干扰的影响。
毫无疑问，多个瓶颈继续对海洋供应链的运行效率造成影响，而且今年晚些时候出现更多瓶颈的风险仍然很高。例如，中国严格的新冠疫情防控措施目前已经解除，尤其是上海一带，但无法保证今年晚些时候会不会再次出现多地封锁的情况。
在欧洲，北部枢纽港正在努力运出空箱，而船只周转时间延长了，从而导致运输时间增加。内陆铁路、驳船和公路运营商也在努力解决运力短缺问题。
DHL的《7月海运市场最新消息》指出，欧洲港口拥塞仍然十分严重，导致船期延误以及更多的承运商空船航行。该《最新消息》还强调，设备供应仍然非常紧张，尤其是40英尺高柜。
由于通胀，工会加大罢工力度以谋求更高的报酬，多个主要港口也受到影响。
美国东海岸港口继续承受港口拥塞之苦，因为在美国西海岸港口，随着先前的多年协议在6月底到期，工会代表正在与雇主协商新合同，因此承运商都试图避开美国西海岸港口。
如果谈判不顺利，那么今年晚些时候更多不利因素会显现，而罢工有可能导致29个港口关闭，包括对跨太平洋物流至关重要的洛杉矶港和长岛港。
[wysiwyg] => wysiwyg
[outbound_box] => outbound_box
[Despite softened rates from a Q2 slowdown, uncertainties loom heavily. With the peak season looming for container shipping, two trends are likely to shape markets in the coming weeks and months.
Firstly, in terms of demand for goods usually shipped on the major East-West trades, the consensus view is turning bearish as economic growth slows, inflation drags on confidence and bottom lines, and the war in Ukraine continues to dog the supply chain.
Secondly, even though freight rates have softened so far this year, global supply chains remain taut and vulnerable to further disruptions despite a Q2 slowdown.
The unknowns ahead of peak season
However, what is not certain is the extent of the impact brought on by the incoming global recession or how far demand for container shipping might decline when key markets start to contract.
Moreover, even if demand for container shipping drops significantly, most analysts believe it will still take multiple quarters to get liner schedules back on track, ports decongested and empties back in position. Indeed, even though demand softened in Q2, very little progress was made on improving liner schedule reliability.
Heading into the third quarter peak season then, this means that even a slight uptick in volumes from Q2 – the traditional quiet period for container shipping – would likely see port congestion in the US and Europe deteriorate further. This would inevitably take vessel shipping capacity out of the supply-demand equation, add to local equipment shortages and, most likely, push spot freight rates back up.
“There is no doubt that many economic metrics have taken a turn for the worse and some markets could be heading towards a slowdown, but how hard any landing might be is not yet clear,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific. “What is clear is that a lot of cargo is still being shipped and supply chain bottlenecks are apparent around the world.
Ongoing logjams
Certainly, multiple choke points continue to impact the efficiency of ocean supply chains, while the risk remains high that more will appear later this year. For example, China’s strict Covid-19 lockdowns have now been eased, especially around Shanghai, but there are no guarantees that more lockdowns will not follow later this year.
In Europe, northern hub terminals are struggling to ship out empties and vessel turnaround times have increased, adding to transit times. Hinterland rail, barge and road operators are also wrestling with capacity shortages.
DHL’s July Ocean Freight Market Update notes that port congestion in Europe is still a major issue. This is prompting delays to schedules and more blank sailings from carriers. The update also highlights that the equipment situation also remains tight, especially for 40ft high cube container equipment.
A number of keys ports has also been subject to industrial action as inflation prompts unions to ramp up strikes in search of higher pay.
Congestion also continues to blight east coast US ports as shippers have sought to avoid US west coast ports where union representatives and employers are currently negotiating a new contract after the previous multi-year settlement expired at the end of June.
More disruption could easily follow later this year if negotiations do not progress smoothly, while a strike could potentially shut down 29 ports, including the Los Angeles and Long Beach complex so critical to trans-Pacific logistics.
RELATED ARTICLESDHL Ocean Freight Market Update – July 2022Find out the latest developments of the global ocean freight market in this monthly analysis by DHL Global Forwarding.Liner reliability failures
All these disruptions manifest themselves, of course, in carrier schedule reliability. Sea-Intelligence’s latest Global Liner Performance (GLP) report found that global schedule reliability this year is largely following the trend seen in 2021, fluctuating within a small range but at a slightly lower base.
In May 2022, schedule reliability improved by 2.1 percentage points month-on-month to 36.4 percent, albeit still down year-on-year by 2.3 percentage points. “This means that the 2022 score has been slightly below the 2021 level in each of the first five months,” noted Sea-Intelligence.
The average delay for late vessel arrivals also decreased once again in May, dropping to 6.17 days. “The delay figure is now firmly below the 7-day mark, but it still continues to be the highest across each month when compared historically, albeit with the margin decreasing sharply,” said the analyst.
With schedule reliability of 50.3 percent, Maersk was the most reliable carrier in May 2022 followed by Hamburg Süd with 43.7 percent. There were six carriers with schedule reliability of 30 to 40 percent and six with schedule reliability of 20 percent-30 percent.
Economic clouds turn thunderous
Lower demand is the most obvious route out of the supply chain knots preventing carriers from improving their performance, albeit it being a bitter pill for most in the industry to swallow. And there is growing evidence that an economic downturn is underway.
The World Bank now expects global trade to decelerate to 4 percent year-on-year in 2022, while global growth in advanced economies is set to decelerate from 5.1 percent in 2021 to 2.6 percent in 2022. In emerging and developing economies, growth is forecast to fall from 6.6 percent in 2021 to 3.4 percent in 2022.
The U.S. economy might even turn recessionary during 2022. In June, Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell pointed to the “possibility” of a recession while analyst firm Nomura claims the country is “staring into the void”, with a mild recession starting in the fourth quarter “now more likely than not”.
Already the impact on trade is becoming apparent. Durable goods consumption jumped sharply above recent trends during the pandemic, due to constrained service activity and significant policy support. However, rapidly rising interest rates and deteriorating economic conditions are prompting a pullback in durable goods spending, a trend likely to continue through the rest of 2022 and 2023, according to Nomura.
“In particular, to some degree, durable goods consumption and home sales are interconnected and the recent deterioration in home affordability could weigh on durable goods consumption significantly,” said the analyst firm.
Nomura now expects US imports, which saw strong quarter-on-quarter growth through 2021 and the first six months of 2022, to turn negative until the third quarter of 2023.
In China there is growing evidence that manufacturing and new export orders are falling. President Xi’s strict lockdown policy, amongst other things, has prompted the World Bank to cut its real GDP forecast for Chinese growth to 4.3 percent, versus a government target of 5.5 percent and growth of 8.1 percent last year.
In Europe, there is almost no economic positivity and war is casting a long shadow. S&P Global’s June PMI survey data showed the eurozone manufacturing economy ended the second quarter on a low as production levels fell for the first time in two years. Total new business intakes and export orders both declined, while business confidence slid to a 25-month low.
Backlogs of work, which built up significantly throughout the pandemic, also fell for the first time in almost two years as companies focused on completing unfilled orders due to falling demand. “Demand is now weakening as firms report customers to be growing more cautious in relation to spending due to rising prices and the uncertain economic outlook,” said, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.
With inventories of both raw materials and unsold stock rising due to lower-than-expected production and sales volumes, respectively, Williamson said the downturn “looks set to gain momentum in the coming months”.
RELATED ARTICLESTemper expectations of quick recovery after end of China lockdownsFreight rates are expected to normalize in 2023, but unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels.What next?
Bjorn Vang Jensen, VP Advisory Services – Global Supply Chain at Sea-Intelligence, had previously predicted that the current bull run for container lines would “probably end around Q3, 2023” unless there was a global recession. However, he said even if there was a sharp drop in the container market due to a major economic contraction, it was unlikely that carriers would be back to loss-making rates, although freight rates would inevitably fall. “Newton’s Third Law will now do its thing, as it always has,” he said.
Dominique von Orelli, Global Head, Ocean Freight, DHL Global Forwarding, added: “The global economy would need a major correction to entirely rid our industry of container line scheduling reliability issues. That doesn’t seem likely based on current forecasting. I expect flexibility will be critical to supply chain success and cohesion through the third quarter and beyond.”] =>
DGF海运部全球主管Dominique von Orelli补充道，“全球经济需要进行一次重大修正，才能完全解决业内集装箱航线船期的可靠性问题。根据目前的预测，这种情况似乎不太可能发生。我预计，到今年第三季度及之后，供应链取得成功和连贯性的关键在于灵活变通。”
[] =>
[potential-economic-headwinds-add-stress-to-supply-chain] => potential-economic-headwinds-add-stress-to-supply-chain
[freight rate] =>
[port congestion] =>
[OFR-July-2022-key-image] => OFR-July-2022-key-image
[DHL Ocean Freight Market Update – July 2022] => DHL Ocean Freight Market Update – July 2022
[temper-expectations-end-of-china-lockdowns-key-image] => temper-expectations-end-of-china-lockdowns-key-image
[Temper expectations of quick recovery after end of China lockdowns] => Temper expectations of quick recovery after end of China lockdowns
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[$value] => What next?
Bjorn Vang Jensen, VP Advisory Services - Global Supply Chain at Sea-Intelligence, had previously predicted that the current bull run for container lines would “probably end around Q3, 2023” unless there was a global recession. However, he said even if there was a sharp drop in the container market due to a major economic contraction, it was unlikely that carriers would be back to loss-making rates, although freight rates would inevitably fall. “Newton's Third Law will now do its thing, as it always has,” he said.
Dominique von Orelli, Global Head, Ocean Freight, DHL Global Forwarding, added: “The global economy would need a major correction to entirely rid our industry of container line scheduling reliability issues. That doesn’t seem likely based on current forecasting. I expect flexibility will be critical to supply chain success and cohesion through the third quarter and beyond.”
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