Array
(
[derick] => Array
(
[A shift in consumer spend from products to services is putting pressure on the balance between capacity and demand.] => 消费者支出从产品转向服务，给运力和需求之间的平衡带来了压力。
[[]] =>
[Incoming capacity poses fresh challenges for ocean freight] => 进港运力给海运带来新挑战
[Continuing disruptions in China due to Covid-19
While port-related congestion issues in Europe and the U.S. have lessened, supply chain disruptions are continuing in China with its zero Covid-19 policy still in place. China’s Communist Party concluded its 20th National Congress in October but hopes that this might see a significant easing of the pandemic-driven restrictions have already been dashed. A much anticipated State Council press conference on 7 November saw officials reaffirm that China would be sticking to the strict policy that continues to dampen both international trade and China’s own economic growth.
“We are closely monitoring the situation in China, and hope to see some loosening of the restrictions by next year. This would allow manufacturers to plan production and deliveries more efficiently. It would also boost growth and confidence in the important Chinese domestic market,” added Leung.] =>
新冠疫情导致中国供应链持续中断
尽管欧洲和美国的港口拥堵问题有所缓解，但中国的新冠疫情动态清零政策仍在实施，供应链中断仍在继续。中国共产党于10月结束了第20次全国代表大会，疫情导致的限制可能会大幅放开的希望破灭了。11月7日，在备受期待的国务院新闻发布会上，官员们重申，中国将继续坚持严格的政策，尽管该政策持续抑制国际贸易和中国自身经济增长。
“我们正在密切关注中国的情况，并希望在明年之前看到限制有所放宽。这样制造商才能更有效地计划生产和交付。这也将促进中国重要的国内市场的增长和增强信心，”Leung补充道。
[Economic outlook
The latest October PMI surveys signaled that the downturn in global economic activity is showing no sign of relenting. The J.P.Morgan Global Composite Output Index fell to 49.0 in October, from 49.6 in September, its lowest reading since June 2020.
Business optimism dipped to a 28-month low, reported J.P.Morgan, as “new order intakes and international trade flows continued to dwindle in the face of heightened economic, inflationary and political pressures”.
Bennett Parrish, Global Economist at J.P.Morgan, added: “With demand weak, geopolitical and market volatility high, and inflationary pressures still elevated, the growth outlook remains downbeat for the remainder of the year.”
Financial analyst firm S&P Global noted that the rate of decline for the eurozone economy was the fastest since April 2013 barring pandemic lockdowns, with manufacturing, and energy intensive sectors reporting the steepest output losses. Germany reported the sharpest economic contraction while growth in France “merely stalled”.
Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said: “The eurozone economy looks set to contract in the fourth quarter given the steepening loss of output and deteriorating demand picture seen in October, adding to speculation that a recession is looking increasingly inevitable.”
The U.S. economy is also struggling with manufacturing activity growing at its slowest pace. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its U.S. manufacturing PMI fell to 50.2 in October 2022 from 50.9 in September 2022, both the lowest readings since May 2020.] =>
经济展望
最新的10月采购经理人指数(PMI)调查显示，全球经济活动的低迷没有缓和的迹象。10月摩根大通全球综合产出指数从9月的49.6降至49.0，为2020年6月以来的最低水平。
摩根大通(J.P.Morgan)报告称，商业乐观指数降至28个月以来的最低点，因为“在经济、通胀和政治压力加剧的情况下，新订单数量和国际贸易流量继续减少”。
摩根大通全球经济学家Bennett Parrish补充称:“由于需求疲软，地缘政治和市场波动性高，通胀压力仍在上升，在今年剩余时间实现增长的前景依然黯淡。”
金融分析公司标普全球指出，除疫情管控外，欧元区经济下滑速度为2013年4月以来最快的一次，制造业和能源密集型行业的产出损失最大。德国报告的经济萎缩最严重，而法国的增长“只是停滞不前”。
标普全球市场情报首席商业经济学家Chris Williamson表示:“考虑到10月份产出损失加剧和需求状况恶化，欧元区经济似乎将在第四季度出现收缩，这加剧了人们对衰退似乎越来越不可避免的猜测。”
美国经济还面临制造业活动增速降至最低的困境。美国供应管理协会称，2022年10月美国制造业PMI从2022年9月的50.9降至50.2，均为2020年5月以来的最低水平。
[Shifting rates
Traditional peak season barely materialized in 2022 and many industry observers feel that the slump is structural, rather than seasonal. These economic headwinds, and ongoing Covid-19 restrictions, have combined to impose heavy downward pressure on freight. Although uneven, the pressure is being felt globally.
Across many trade lanes, cargo volumes are weakening, according to the November DHL Ocean Freight Market Update. The end result? Spot freight rates are projected to move back to pre-pandemic levels.
The question that remains is whether there are signs of rates normalization in the near future.] =>
费率转变
历来的旺季在2022年几乎没有出现，许多行业观察人士认为，这种下滑是结构性的，而非季节性的。这些经济逆风，加上新冠疫情的限制措施，给货运带来了沉重的下行压力。尽管各地不均衡，但这种压力是全球性的。
根据DHL 11月海运市场更新报告，许多贸易通道上的货运量正在减弱。最终结果呢?现货运价预计将恢复到疫情前水平。
仍然存在的问题是，近期是否有费率正常化的迹象。
[After posting record profits for the last two years, container lines are now facing a new challenge. With more ships due for delivery over the next two years, how will they manage capacity and rates in the face slowing demand?
As global inflation dampens confidence and output, any remaining consumer spending is reverting to pre-pandemic norms, with expenditure shifting from products back to services such as tourism and dining out.
Political instability, rising production costs - not least due to soaring energy costs - and subsiding consumer confidence and economic growth rates are clearly impacting demand. The combination of a lowered demand, along with growing capacity, has led to a drop in rates.
“With the downward shift in market rates, it is crucial to provide our customers with the best solutions to optimize their costs in the months to come,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.
The liner challenge
At the start of the year, shipping companies have placed record levels of new orders for container vessels. The aim was to introduce new capacity, though it would only be available in 2023, and relieve pressure on rates that have been building up over the past year.
However, the market situation has changed, with various events such as war in Ukraine, the energy crisis and inflation leading to lowered consumer spend, and thus demand in goods.
Containers lines are now facing a potential challenge on the supply-side, where overcapacity could impact profits. A total of 7.3 million twenty-foot-equivalent unit (TEU) of newbuilding capacity, representing 28.3 percent of the existing cellular fleet, is expected to hit the market by the end of 2025, according to shipping analyst firm Alphaliner.
“The years 2023 and 2024 alone will see a total of 5.1 million TEU of newbuilding tonnage joining the fleet, with 2.3 million TEU expected next year and 2.8 million TEU due in 2024,” reported the analyst. “By comparison, the containership fleet is expected to see only about 1.1m TEU of new capacity hitting the water in 2022, about the same as in the year before.”
The current fleet has an average age of less than 14 years, so scrapping is likely to be subdued, although some capacity will be effectively taken out of the market due to impending IMO carbon regulations which will force ships to slow down to reduce emissions.
All this means that a huge number of new large containerships are going to hit the water in 2023 at a time of stagnating demand. Tonnage supply could potentially outstrip vessel demand again next year and the liner shipping market might be headed towards structural overcapacity.
“There is no doubt that we are moving towards a period in container shipping in which overcapacity is the chief challenge for carriers,” said Dominique von Orelli, Global Head, Ocean Freight, DHL Global Forwarding. “Hopefully, liners will take action to reduce empty slots, and look at improving service reliability for their customers.”] => 在过去两年创下利润记录后，集装箱运输公司现在面临着新的挑战。随着未来两年将有更多船舶交付，面对需求放缓，它们将如何管理运力和费率？
由于全球通货膨胀削弱信心和产出，剩余的消费支出正在恢复到疫情前水平，同时支出从产品转向旅游和外出就餐等服务。
政治不稳定、生产成本上升—尤其是由于能源成本飙升—以及消费者信心和经济增长率下降，显然正在影响需求。需求降低，运力增长，导致了费率下降。
“随着市场费率的下降，在未来几个月为客户提供最佳解决方案以优化成本至关重要，”DHL全球货运亚太区首席执行官梁启元（Kelvin Leung）表示。
班轮挑战
今年年初，航运公司的集装箱新订单达到了创纪录水平。尽管到2023年才能投入使用，但此举目的是引入新运力，缓解过去一年里不断累积的费率压力。
然而，市场形势发生了变化，乌克兰战争、能源危机和通货膨胀等各种事件导致消费者支出减少，从而导致货物需求下降。
集装箱运输公司目前在供应侧面临潜在挑战，产能过剩可能会影响利润。根据航运分析公司Alphaliner的数据，预计到2025年底，共有730万20英尺当量单位（TEU）的新造船运力将投入市场，占现有蜂窝船队的28.3%。
该分析公司称:“仅2023年和2024年，就将有510万TEU的新造船吨位加入船队，预计明年将有230万TEU, 2024年将有280万TEU。”“相比之下，预计2022年集装箱船队的新运力将只有约110万TEU，与前一年大致相同。”
目前的船队平均船龄不到14年，因此报废可能会受到控制，尽管由于即将出台的国际海事组织（IMO）碳法规将迫使船舶减速以减少排放，一些运力将有效地退出市场。
所有这些都意味着，在需求停滞的2023年，大量新的大型集装箱船将下水。明年，船舶吨位供应可能再次超过船舶需求，班轮运输市场可能走向结构性产能过剩。
“毋庸置疑，我们正在迈向集装箱运输业的一个时期，期间运力过剩是承运商面临的主要挑战，”DHL全球货运全球主管Dominique von Orelli表示，“希望运输公司能够采取行动减少空位，并着眼于为客户提高服务的可靠性。”
[wysiwyg] => wysiwyg
[outbound_box] => outbound_box
[A shift in consumer spend from products to services is putting pressure on the balance between capacity and demand. After posting record profits for the last two years, container lines are now facing a new challenge. With more ships due for delivery over the next two years, how will they manage capacity and rates in the face slowing demand?
As global inflation dampens confidence and output, any remaining consumer spending is reverting to pre-pandemic norms, with expenditure shifting from products back to services such as tourism and dining out.
Political instability, rising production costs – not least due to soaring energy costs – and subsiding consumer confidence and economic growth rates are clearly impacting demand. The combination of a lowered demand, along with growing capacity, has led to a drop in rates.
“With the downward shift in market rates, it is crucial to provide our customers with the best solutions to optimize their costs in the months to come,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.
The liner challenge
At the start of the year, shipping companies have placed record levels of new orders for container vessels. The aim was to introduce new capacity, though it would only be available in 2023, and relieve pressure on rates that have been building up over the past year.
However, the market situation has changed, with various events such as war in Ukraine, the energy crisis and inflation leading to lowered consumer spend, and thus demand in goods.
Containers lines are now facing a potential challenge on the supply-side, where overcapacity could impact profits. A total of 7.3 million twenty-foot-equivalent unit (TEU) of newbuilding capacity, representing 28.3 percent of the existing cellular fleet, is expected to hit the market by the end of 2025, according to shipping analyst firm Alphaliner.
“The years 2023 and 2024 alone will see a total of 5.1 million TEU of newbuilding tonnage joining the fleet, with 2.3 million TEU expected next year and 2.8 million TEU due in 2024,” reported the analyst. “By comparison, the containership fleet is expected to see only about 1.1m TEU of new capacity hitting the water in 2022, about the same as in the year before.”
The current fleet has an average age of less than 14 years, so scrapping is likely to be subdued, although some capacity will be effectively taken out of the market due to impending IMO carbon regulations which will force ships to slow down to reduce emissions.
All this means that a huge number of new large containerships are going to hit the water in 2023 at a time of stagnating demand. Tonnage supply could potentially outstrip vessel demand again next year and the liner shipping market might be headed towards structural overcapacity.
“There is no doubt that we are moving towards a period in container shipping in which overcapacity is the chief challenge for carriers,” said Dominique von Orelli, Global Head, Ocean Freight, DHL Global Forwarding. “Hopefully, liners will take action to reduce empty slots, and look at improving service reliability for their customers.”
RELATED ARTICLESDHL Ocean Freight Market Update Outlook 2022-2024Demand remains strong amidst limited capacity, with freight rates looking to stabilize much later in 2024.Continuing disruptions in China due to Covid-19
While port-related congestion issues in Europe and the U.S. have lessened, supply chain disruptions are continuing in China with its zero Covid-19 policy still in place. China’s Communist Party concluded its 20th National Congress in October but hopes that this might see a significant easing of the pandemic-driven restrictions have already been dashed. A much anticipated State Council press conference on 7 November saw officials reaffirm that China would be sticking to the strict policy that continues to dampen both international trade and China’s own economic growth.
“We are closely monitoring the situation in China, and hope to see some loosening of the restrictions by next year. This would allow manufacturers to plan production and deliveries more efficiently. It would also boost growth and confidence in the important Chinese domestic market,” added Leung.
RELATED ARTICLESShifting trends for air freight as the holiday season approachesShippers have to re-think their approach as air cargo demand lowers and ocean capacity returns.Economic outlook
The latest October PMI surveys signaled that the downturn in global economic activity is showing no sign of relenting. The J.P.Morgan Global Composite Output Index fell to 49.0 in October, from 49.6 in September, its lowest reading since June 2020.
Business optimism dipped to a 28-month low, reported J.P.Morgan, as “new order intakes and international trade flows continued to dwindle in the face of heightened economic, inflationary and political pressures”.
Bennett Parrish, Global Economist at J.P.Morgan, added: “With demand weak, geopolitical and market volatility high, and inflationary pressures still elevated, the growth outlook remains downbeat for the remainder of the year.”
Financial analyst firm S&P Global noted that the rate of decline for the eurozone economy was the fastest since April 2013 barring pandemic lockdowns, with manufacturing, and energy intensive sectors reporting the steepest output losses. Germany reported the sharpest economic contraction while growth in France “merely stalled”.
Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said: “The eurozone economy looks set to contract in the fourth quarter given the steepening loss of output and deteriorating demand picture seen in October, adding to speculation that a recession is looking increasingly inevitable.”
The U.S. economy is also struggling with manufacturing activity growing at its slowest pace. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its U.S. manufacturing PMI fell to 50.2 in October 2022 from 50.9 in September 2022, both the lowest readings since May 2020.
RELATED ARTICLESExpanding trade opportunities for Asia Pacific in a post-pandemic worldAccording to the DHL Trade Growth Atlas 2022, the region will lead the world in terms of trade growth over the next five years.Shifting rates
Traditional peak season barely materialized in 2022 and many industry observers feel that the slump is structural, rather than seasonal. These economic headwinds, and ongoing Covid-19 restrictions, have combined to impose heavy downward pressure on freight. Although uneven, the pressure is being felt globally.
Across many trade lanes, cargo volumes are weakening, according to the November DHL Ocean Freight Market Update. The end result? Spot freight rates are projected to move back to pre-pandemic levels.
The question that remains is whether there are signs of rates normalization in the near future.
RELATED ARTICLESDHL Ocean Freight Market Update – November 2022Find out the latest developments of the global ocean freight market in this monthly analysis by DHL Global Forwarding.] =>
[] =>
[incoming-capacity-challenges-ocean-freight] => incoming-capacity-challenges-ocean-freight
[OFR-market-update-Jan-2022-key-image] => OFR-market-update-Jan-2022-key-image
[Ocean Freight Market Update 2022-2024] => Ocean Freight Market Update 2022-2024
[shifting-trends-air-freight-holiday-season-key-image] => shifting-trends-air-freight-holiday-season-key-image
[expanding-trade-opportunities-asia-pacific-post-pandemic-world-key-image] => expanding-trade-opportunities-asia-pacific-post-pandemic-world-key-image
[OFR-Nov-2022-key-image] => OFR-Nov-2022-key-image
[incoming-capacity-challenges-ocean-freight-single-column] => incoming-capacity-challenges-ocean-freight-single-column
[incoming-capacity-challenges-ocean-freight-key-image] => incoming-capacity-challenges-ocean-freight-key-image
)
[$value] => After posting record profits for the last two years, container lines are now facing a new challenge. With more ships due for delivery over the next two years, how will they manage capacity and rates in the face slowing demand?
As global inflation dampens confidence and output, any remaining consumer spending is reverting to pre-pandemic norms, with expenditure shifting from products back to services such as tourism and dining out.
Political instability, rising production costs - not least due to soaring energy costs - and subsiding consumer confidence and economic growth rates are clearly impacting demand. The combination of a lowered demand, along with growing capacity, has led to a drop in rates.
“With the downward shift in market rates, it is crucial to provide our customers with the best solutions to optimize their costs in the months to come,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.
The liner challenge
At the start of the year, shipping companies have placed record levels of new orders for container vessels. The aim was to introduce new capacity, though it would only be available in 2023, and relieve pressure on rates that have been building up over the past year.
However, the market situation has changed, with various events such as war in Ukraine, the energy crisis and inflation leading to lowered consumer spend, and thus demand in goods.
Containers lines are now facing a potential challenge on the supply-side, where overcapacity could impact profits. A total of 7.3 million twenty-foot-equivalent unit (TEU) of newbuilding capacity, representing 28.3 percent of the existing cellular fleet, is expected to hit the market by the end of 2025, according to shipping analyst firm Alphaliner.
“The years 2023 and 2024 alone will see a total of 5.1 million TEU of newbuilding tonnage joining the fleet, with 2.3 million TEU expected next year and 2.8 million TEU due in 2024,” reported the analyst. “By comparison, the containership fleet is expected to see only about 1.1m TEU of new capacity hitting the water in 2022, about the same as in the year before.”
The current fleet has an average age of less than 14 years, so scrapping is likely to be subdued, although some capacity will be effectively taken out of the market due to impending IMO carbon regulations which will force ships to slow down to reduce emissions.
All this means that a huge number of new large containerships are going to hit the water in 2023 at a time of stagnating demand. Tonnage supply could potentially outstrip vessel demand again next year and the liner shipping market might be headed towards structural overcapacity.
“There is no doubt that we are moving towards a period in container shipping in which overcapacity is the chief challenge for carriers,” said Dominique von Orelli, Global Head, Ocean Freight, DHL Global Forwarding. “Hopefully, liners will take action to reduce empty slots, and look at improving service reliability for their customers.”
)
“毋庸置疑，我们正在迈向集装箱运输业的一个时期，期间运力过剩是承运商面临的主要挑战，”DHL全球货运全球主管Dominique von Orelli表示，“希望运输公司能够采取行动减少空位，并着眼于为客户提高服务的可靠性。”
Array
(
[derick] => Array
(
[A shift in consumer spend from products to services is putting pressure on the balance between capacity and demand.] => 消费者支出从产品转向服务，给运力和需求之间的平衡带来了压力。
[[]] =>
[Incoming capacity poses fresh challenges for ocean freight] => 进港运力给海运带来新挑战
[Continuing disruptions in China due to Covid-19
While port-related congestion issues in Europe and the U.S. have lessened, supply chain disruptions are continuing in China with its zero Covid-19 policy still in place. China’s Communist Party concluded its 20th National Congress in October but hopes that this might see a significant easing of the pandemic-driven restrictions have already been dashed. A much anticipated State Council press conference on 7 November saw officials reaffirm that China would be sticking to the strict policy that continues to dampen both international trade and China’s own economic growth.
“We are closely monitoring the situation in China, and hope to see some loosening of the restrictions by next year. This would allow manufacturers to plan production and deliveries more efficiently. It would also boost growth and confidence in the important Chinese domestic market,” added Leung.] =>
新冠疫情导致中国供应链持续中断
尽管欧洲和美国的港口拥堵问题有所缓解，但中国的新冠疫情动态清零政策仍在实施，供应链中断仍在继续。中国共产党于10月结束了第20次全国代表大会，疫情导致的限制可能会大幅放开的希望破灭了。11月7日，在备受期待的国务院新闻发布会上，官员们重申，中国将继续坚持严格的政策，尽管该政策持续抑制国际贸易和中国自身经济增长。
“我们正在密切关注中国的情况，并希望在明年之前看到限制有所放宽。这样制造商才能更有效地计划生产和交付。这也将促进中国重要的国内市场的增长和增强信心，”Leung补充道。
[Economic outlook
The latest October PMI surveys signaled that the downturn in global economic activity is showing no sign of relenting. The J.P.Morgan Global Composite Output Index fell to 49.0 in October, from 49.6 in September, its lowest reading since June 2020.
Business optimism dipped to a 28-month low, reported J.P.Morgan, as “new order intakes and international trade flows continued to dwindle in the face of heightened economic, inflationary and political pressures”.
Bennett Parrish, Global Economist at J.P.Morgan, added: “With demand weak, geopolitical and market volatility high, and inflationary pressures still elevated, the growth outlook remains downbeat for the remainder of the year.”
Financial analyst firm S&P Global noted that the rate of decline for the eurozone economy was the fastest since April 2013 barring pandemic lockdowns, with manufacturing, and energy intensive sectors reporting the steepest output losses. Germany reported the sharpest economic contraction while growth in France “merely stalled”.
Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said: “The eurozone economy looks set to contract in the fourth quarter given the steepening loss of output and deteriorating demand picture seen in October, adding to speculation that a recession is looking increasingly inevitable.”
The U.S. economy is also struggling with manufacturing activity growing at its slowest pace. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its U.S. manufacturing PMI fell to 50.2 in October 2022 from 50.9 in September 2022, both the lowest readings since May 2020.] =>
经济展望
最新的10月采购经理人指数(PMI)调查显示，全球经济活动的低迷没有缓和的迹象。10月摩根大通全球综合产出指数从9月的49.6降至49.0，为2020年6月以来的最低水平。
摩根大通(J.P.Morgan)报告称，商业乐观指数降至28个月以来的最低点，因为“在经济、通胀和政治压力加剧的情况下，新订单数量和国际贸易流量继续减少”。
摩根大通全球经济学家Bennett Parrish补充称:“由于需求疲软，地缘政治和市场波动性高，通胀压力仍在上升，在今年剩余时间实现增长的前景依然黯淡。”
金融分析公司标普全球指出，除疫情管控外，欧元区经济下滑速度为2013年4月以来最快的一次，制造业和能源密集型行业的产出损失最大。德国报告的经济萎缩最严重，而法国的增长“只是停滞不前”。
标普全球市场情报首席商业经济学家Chris Williamson表示:“考虑到10月份产出损失加剧和需求状况恶化，欧元区经济似乎将在第四季度出现收缩，这加剧了人们对衰退似乎越来越不可避免的猜测。”
美国经济还面临制造业活动增速降至最低的困境。美国供应管理协会称，2022年10月美国制造业PMI从2022年9月的50.9降至50.2，均为2020年5月以来的最低水平。
[Shifting rates
Traditional peak season barely materialized in 2022 and many industry observers feel that the slump is structural, rather than seasonal. These economic headwinds, and ongoing Covid-19 restrictions, have combined to impose heavy downward pressure on freight. Although uneven, the pressure is being felt globally.
Across many trade lanes, cargo volumes are weakening, according to the November DHL Ocean Freight Market Update. The end result? Spot freight rates are projected to move back to pre-pandemic levels.
The question that remains is whether there are signs of rates normalization in the near future.] =>
费率转变
历来的旺季在2022年几乎没有出现，许多行业观察人士认为，这种下滑是结构性的，而非季节性的。这些经济逆风，加上新冠疫情的限制措施，给货运带来了沉重的下行压力。尽管各地不均衡，但这种压力是全球性的。
根据DHL 11月海运市场更新报告，许多贸易通道上的货运量正在减弱。最终结果呢?现货运价预计将恢复到疫情前水平。
仍然存在的问题是，近期是否有费率正常化的迹象。
[After posting record profits for the last two years, container lines are now facing a new challenge. With more ships due for delivery over the next two years, how will they manage capacity and rates in the face slowing demand?
As global inflation dampens confidence and output, any remaining consumer spending is reverting to pre-pandemic norms, with expenditure shifting from products back to services such as tourism and dining out.
Political instability, rising production costs - not least due to soaring energy costs - and subsiding consumer confidence and economic growth rates are clearly impacting demand. The combination of a lowered demand, along with growing capacity, has led to a drop in rates.
“With the downward shift in market rates, it is crucial to provide our customers with the best solutions to optimize their costs in the months to come,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.
The liner challenge
At the start of the year, shipping companies have placed record levels of new orders for container vessels. The aim was to introduce new capacity, though it would only be available in 2023, and relieve pressure on rates that have been building up over the past year.
However, the market situation has changed, with various events such as war in Ukraine, the energy crisis and inflation leading to lowered consumer spend, and thus demand in goods.
Containers lines are now facing a potential challenge on the supply-side, where overcapacity could impact profits. A total of 7.3 million twenty-foot-equivalent unit (TEU) of newbuilding capacity, representing 28.3 percent of the existing cellular fleet, is expected to hit the market by the end of 2025, according to shipping analyst firm Alphaliner.
“The years 2023 and 2024 alone will see a total of 5.1 million TEU of newbuilding tonnage joining the fleet, with 2.3 million TEU expected next year and 2.8 million TEU due in 2024,” reported the analyst. “By comparison, the containership fleet is expected to see only about 1.1m TEU of new capacity hitting the water in 2022, about the same as in the year before.”
The current fleet has an average age of less than 14 years, so scrapping is likely to be subdued, although some capacity will be effectively taken out of the market due to impending IMO carbon regulations which will force ships to slow down to reduce emissions.
All this means that a huge number of new large containerships are going to hit the water in 2023 at a time of stagnating demand. Tonnage supply could potentially outstrip vessel demand again next year and the liner shipping market might be headed towards structural overcapacity.
“There is no doubt that we are moving towards a period in container shipping in which overcapacity is the chief challenge for carriers,” said Dominique von Orelli, Global Head, Ocean Freight, DHL Global Forwarding. “Hopefully, liners will take action to reduce empty slots, and look at improving service reliability for their customers.”] => 在过去两年创下利润记录后，集装箱运输公司现在面临着新的挑战。随着未来两年将有更多船舶交付，面对需求放缓，它们将如何管理运力和费率？
由于全球通货膨胀削弱信心和产出，剩余的消费支出正在恢复到疫情前水平，同时支出从产品转向旅游和外出就餐等服务。
政治不稳定、生产成本上升—尤其是由于能源成本飙升—以及消费者信心和经济增长率下降，显然正在影响需求。需求降低，运力增长，导致了费率下降。
“随着市场费率的下降，在未来几个月为客户提供最佳解决方案以优化成本至关重要，”DHL全球货运亚太区首席执行官梁启元（Kelvin Leung）表示。
班轮挑战
今年年初，航运公司的集装箱新订单达到了创纪录水平。尽管到2023年才能投入使用，但此举目的是引入新运力，缓解过去一年里不断累积的费率压力。
然而，市场形势发生了变化，乌克兰战争、能源危机和通货膨胀等各种事件导致消费者支出减少，从而导致货物需求下降。
集装箱运输公司目前在供应侧面临潜在挑战，产能过剩可能会影响利润。根据航运分析公司Alphaliner的数据，预计到2025年底，共有730万20英尺当量单位（TEU）的新造船运力将投入市场，占现有蜂窝船队的28.3%。
该分析公司称:“仅2023年和2024年，就将有510万TEU的新造船吨位加入船队，预计明年将有230万TEU, 2024年将有280万TEU。”“相比之下，预计2022年集装箱船队的新运力将只有约110万TEU，与前一年大致相同。”
目前的船队平均船龄不到14年，因此报废可能会受到控制，尽管由于即将出台的国际海事组织（IMO）碳法规将迫使船舶减速以减少排放，一些运力将有效地退出市场。
所有这些都意味着，在需求停滞的2023年，大量新的大型集装箱船将下水。明年，船舶吨位供应可能再次超过船舶需求，班轮运输市场可能走向结构性产能过剩。
“毋庸置疑，我们正在迈向集装箱运输业的一个时期，期间运力过剩是承运商面临的主要挑战，”DHL全球货运全球主管Dominique von Orelli表示，“希望运输公司能够采取行动减少空位，并着眼于为客户提高服务的可靠性。”
[wysiwyg] => wysiwyg
[outbound_box] => outbound_box
[A shift in consumer spend from products to services is putting pressure on the balance between capacity and demand. After posting record profits for the last two years, container lines are now facing a new challenge. With more ships due for delivery over the next two years, how will they manage capacity and rates in the face slowing demand?
As global inflation dampens confidence and output, any remaining consumer spending is reverting to pre-pandemic norms, with expenditure shifting from products back to services such as tourism and dining out.
Political instability, rising production costs – not least due to soaring energy costs – and subsiding consumer confidence and economic growth rates are clearly impacting demand. The combination of a lowered demand, along with growing capacity, has led to a drop in rates.
“With the downward shift in market rates, it is crucial to provide our customers with the best solutions to optimize their costs in the months to come,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.
The liner challenge
At the start of the year, shipping companies have placed record levels of new orders for container vessels. The aim was to introduce new capacity, though it would only be available in 2023, and relieve pressure on rates that have been building up over the past year.
However, the market situation has changed, with various events such as war in Ukraine, the energy crisis and inflation leading to lowered consumer spend, and thus demand in goods.
Containers lines are now facing a potential challenge on the supply-side, where overcapacity could impact profits. A total of 7.3 million twenty-foot-equivalent unit (TEU) of newbuilding capacity, representing 28.3 percent of the existing cellular fleet, is expected to hit the market by the end of 2025, according to shipping analyst firm Alphaliner.
“The years 2023 and 2024 alone will see a total of 5.1 million TEU of newbuilding tonnage joining the fleet, with 2.3 million TEU expected next year and 2.8 million TEU due in 2024,” reported the analyst. “By comparison, the containership fleet is expected to see only about 1.1m TEU of new capacity hitting the water in 2022, about the same as in the year before.”
The current fleet has an average age of less than 14 years, so scrapping is likely to be subdued, although some capacity will be effectively taken out of the market due to impending IMO carbon regulations which will force ships to slow down to reduce emissions.
All this means that a huge number of new large containerships are going to hit the water in 2023 at a time of stagnating demand. Tonnage supply could potentially outstrip vessel demand again next year and the liner shipping market might be headed towards structural overcapacity.
“There is no doubt that we are moving towards a period in container shipping in which overcapacity is the chief challenge for carriers,” said Dominique von Orelli, Global Head, Ocean Freight, DHL Global Forwarding. “Hopefully, liners will take action to reduce empty slots, and look at improving service reliability for their customers.”
RELATED ARTICLESDHL Ocean Freight Market Update Outlook 2022-2024Demand remains strong amidst limited capacity, with freight rates looking to stabilize much later in 2024.Continuing disruptions in China due to Covid-19
While port-related congestion issues in Europe and the U.S. have lessened, supply chain disruptions are continuing in China with its zero Covid-19 policy still in place. China’s Communist Party concluded its 20th National Congress in October but hopes that this might see a significant easing of the pandemic-driven restrictions have already been dashed. A much anticipated State Council press conference on 7 November saw officials reaffirm that China would be sticking to the strict policy that continues to dampen both international trade and China’s own economic growth.
“We are closely monitoring the situation in China, and hope to see some loosening of the restrictions by next year. This would allow manufacturers to plan production and deliveries more efficiently. It would also boost growth and confidence in the important Chinese domestic market,” added Leung.
RELATED ARTICLESShifting trends for air freight as the holiday season approachesShippers have to re-think their approach as air cargo demand lowers and ocean capacity returns.Economic outlook
The latest October PMI surveys signaled that the downturn in global economic activity is showing no sign of relenting. The J.P.Morgan Global Composite Output Index fell to 49.0 in October, from 49.6 in September, its lowest reading since June 2020.
Business optimism dipped to a 28-month low, reported J.P.Morgan, as “new order intakes and international trade flows continued to dwindle in the face of heightened economic, inflationary and political pressures”.
Bennett Parrish, Global Economist at J.P.Morgan, added: “With demand weak, geopolitical and market volatility high, and inflationary pressures still elevated, the growth outlook remains downbeat for the remainder of the year.”
Financial analyst firm S&P Global noted that the rate of decline for the eurozone economy was the fastest since April 2013 barring pandemic lockdowns, with manufacturing, and energy intensive sectors reporting the steepest output losses. Germany reported the sharpest economic contraction while growth in France “merely stalled”.
Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said: “The eurozone economy looks set to contract in the fourth quarter given the steepening loss of output and deteriorating demand picture seen in October, adding to speculation that a recession is looking increasingly inevitable.”
The U.S. economy is also struggling with manufacturing activity growing at its slowest pace. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its U.S. manufacturing PMI fell to 50.2 in October 2022 from 50.9 in September 2022, both the lowest readings since May 2020.
RELATED ARTICLESExpanding trade opportunities for Asia Pacific in a post-pandemic worldAccording to the DHL Trade Growth Atlas 2022, the region will lead the world in terms of trade growth over the next five years.Shifting rates
Traditional peak season barely materialized in 2022 and many industry observers feel that the slump is structural, rather than seasonal. These economic headwinds, and ongoing Covid-19 restrictions, have combined to impose heavy downward pressure on freight. Although uneven, the pressure is being felt globally.
Across many trade lanes, cargo volumes are weakening, according to the November DHL Ocean Freight Market Update. The end result? Spot freight rates are projected to move back to pre-pandemic levels.
The question that remains is whether there are signs of rates normalization in the near future.
RELATED ARTICLESDHL Ocean Freight Market Update – November 2022Find out the latest developments of the global ocean freight market in this monthly analysis by DHL Global Forwarding.] =>
[] =>
[incoming-capacity-challenges-ocean-freight] => incoming-capacity-challenges-ocean-freight
[OFR-market-update-Jan-2022-key-image] => OFR-market-update-Jan-2022-key-image
[Ocean Freight Market Update 2022-2024] => Ocean Freight Market Update 2022-2024
[shifting-trends-air-freight-holiday-season-key-image] => shifting-trends-air-freight-holiday-season-key-image
[expanding-trade-opportunities-asia-pacific-post-pandemic-world-key-image] => expanding-trade-opportunities-asia-pacific-post-pandemic-world-key-image
[OFR-Nov-2022-key-image] => OFR-Nov-2022-key-image
[incoming-capacity-challenges-ocean-freight-single-column] => incoming-capacity-challenges-ocean-freight-single-column
[incoming-capacity-challenges-ocean-freight-key-image] => incoming-capacity-challenges-ocean-freight-key-image
)
[$value] => Continuing disruptions in China due to Covid-19
While port-related congestion issues in Europe and the U.S. have lessened, supply chain disruptions are continuing in China with its zero Covid-19 policy still in place. China’s Communist Party concluded its 20th National Congress in October but hopes that this might see a significant easing of the pandemic-driven restrictions have already been dashed. A much anticipated State Council press conference on 7 November saw officials reaffirm that China would be sticking to the strict policy that continues to dampen both international trade and China’s own economic growth.
“We are closely monitoring the situation in China, and hope to see some loosening of the restrictions by next year. This would allow manufacturers to plan production and deliveries more efficiently. It would also boost growth and confidence in the important Chinese domestic market,” added Leung.
)
Array
(
[derick] => Array
(
[A shift in consumer spend from products to services is putting pressure on the balance between capacity and demand.] => 消费者支出从产品转向服务，给运力和需求之间的平衡带来了压力。
[[]] =>
[Incoming capacity poses fresh challenges for ocean freight] => 进港运力给海运带来新挑战
[Continuing disruptions in China due to Covid-19
While port-related congestion issues in Europe and the U.S. have lessened, supply chain disruptions are continuing in China with its zero Covid-19 policy still in place. China’s Communist Party concluded its 20th National Congress in October but hopes that this might see a significant easing of the pandemic-driven restrictions have already been dashed. A much anticipated State Council press conference on 7 November saw officials reaffirm that China would be sticking to the strict policy that continues to dampen both international trade and China’s own economic growth.
“We are closely monitoring the situation in China, and hope to see some loosening of the restrictions by next year. This would allow manufacturers to plan production and deliveries more efficiently. It would also boost growth and confidence in the important Chinese domestic market,” added Leung.] =>
新冠疫情导致中国供应链持续中断
尽管欧洲和美国的港口拥堵问题有所缓解，但中国的新冠疫情动态清零政策仍在实施，供应链中断仍在继续。中国共产党于10月结束了第20次全国代表大会，疫情导致的限制可能会大幅放开的希望破灭了。11月7日，在备受期待的国务院新闻发布会上，官员们重申，中国将继续坚持严格的政策，尽管该政策持续抑制国际贸易和中国自身经济增长。
“我们正在密切关注中国的情况，并希望在明年之前看到限制有所放宽。这样制造商才能更有效地计划生产和交付。这也将促进中国重要的国内市场的增长和增强信心，”Leung补充道。
[Economic outlook
The latest October PMI surveys signaled that the downturn in global economic activity is showing no sign of relenting. The J.P.Morgan Global Composite Output Index fell to 49.0 in October, from 49.6 in September, its lowest reading since June 2020.
Business optimism dipped to a 28-month low, reported J.P.Morgan, as “new order intakes and international trade flows continued to dwindle in the face of heightened economic, inflationary and political pressures”.
Bennett Parrish, Global Economist at J.P.Morgan, added: “With demand weak, geopolitical and market volatility high, and inflationary pressures still elevated, the growth outlook remains downbeat for the remainder of the year.”
Financial analyst firm S&P Global noted that the rate of decline for the eurozone economy was the fastest since April 2013 barring pandemic lockdowns, with manufacturing, and energy intensive sectors reporting the steepest output losses. Germany reported the sharpest economic contraction while growth in France “merely stalled”.
Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said: “The eurozone economy looks set to contract in the fourth quarter given the steepening loss of output and deteriorating demand picture seen in October, adding to speculation that a recession is looking increasingly inevitable.”
The U.S. economy is also struggling with manufacturing activity growing at its slowest pace. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its U.S. manufacturing PMI fell to 50.2 in October 2022 from 50.9 in September 2022, both the lowest readings since May 2020.] =>
经济展望
最新的10月采购经理人指数(PMI)调查显示，全球经济活动的低迷没有缓和的迹象。10月摩根大通全球综合产出指数从9月的49.6降至49.0，为2020年6月以来的最低水平。
摩根大通(J.P.Morgan)报告称，商业乐观指数降至28个月以来的最低点，因为“在经济、通胀和政治压力加剧的情况下，新订单数量和国际贸易流量继续减少”。
摩根大通全球经济学家Bennett Parrish补充称:“由于需求疲软，地缘政治和市场波动性高，通胀压力仍在上升，在今年剩余时间实现增长的前景依然黯淡。”
金融分析公司标普全球指出，除疫情管控外，欧元区经济下滑速度为2013年4月以来最快的一次，制造业和能源密集型行业的产出损失最大。德国报告的经济萎缩最严重，而法国的增长“只是停滞不前”。
标普全球市场情报首席商业经济学家Chris Williamson表示:“考虑到10月份产出损失加剧和需求状况恶化，欧元区经济似乎将在第四季度出现收缩，这加剧了人们对衰退似乎越来越不可避免的猜测。”
美国经济还面临制造业活动增速降至最低的困境。美国供应管理协会称，2022年10月美国制造业PMI从2022年9月的50.9降至50.2，均为2020年5月以来的最低水平。
[Shifting rates
Traditional peak season barely materialized in 2022 and many industry observers feel that the slump is structural, rather than seasonal. These economic headwinds, and ongoing Covid-19 restrictions, have combined to impose heavy downward pressure on freight. Although uneven, the pressure is being felt globally.
Across many trade lanes, cargo volumes are weakening, according to the November DHL Ocean Freight Market Update. The end result? Spot freight rates are projected to move back to pre-pandemic levels.
The question that remains is whether there are signs of rates normalization in the near future.] =>
费率转变
历来的旺季在2022年几乎没有出现，许多行业观察人士认为，这种下滑是结构性的，而非季节性的。这些经济逆风，加上新冠疫情的限制措施，给货运带来了沉重的下行压力。尽管各地不均衡，但这种压力是全球性的。
根据DHL 11月海运市场更新报告，许多贸易通道上的货运量正在减弱。最终结果呢?现货运价预计将恢复到疫情前水平。
仍然存在的问题是，近期是否有费率正常化的迹象。
[After posting record profits for the last two years, container lines are now facing a new challenge. With more ships due for delivery over the next two years, how will they manage capacity and rates in the face slowing demand?
As global inflation dampens confidence and output, any remaining consumer spending is reverting to pre-pandemic norms, with expenditure shifting from products back to services such as tourism and dining out.
Political instability, rising production costs - not least due to soaring energy costs - and subsiding consumer confidence and economic growth rates are clearly impacting demand. The combination of a lowered demand, along with growing capacity, has led to a drop in rates.
“With the downward shift in market rates, it is crucial to provide our customers with the best solutions to optimize their costs in the months to come,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.
The liner challenge
At the start of the year, shipping companies have placed record levels of new orders for container vessels. The aim was to introduce new capacity, though it would only be available in 2023, and relieve pressure on rates that have been building up over the past year.
However, the market situation has changed, with various events such as war in Ukraine, the energy crisis and inflation leading to lowered consumer spend, and thus demand in goods.
Containers lines are now facing a potential challenge on the supply-side, where overcapacity could impact profits. A total of 7.3 million twenty-foot-equivalent unit (TEU) of newbuilding capacity, representing 28.3 percent of the existing cellular fleet, is expected to hit the market by the end of 2025, according to shipping analyst firm Alphaliner.
“The years 2023 and 2024 alone will see a total of 5.1 million TEU of newbuilding tonnage joining the fleet, with 2.3 million TEU expected next year and 2.8 million TEU due in 2024,” reported the analyst. “By comparison, the containership fleet is expected to see only about 1.1m TEU of new capacity hitting the water in 2022, about the same as in the year before.”
The current fleet has an average age of less than 14 years, so scrapping is likely to be subdued, although some capacity will be effectively taken out of the market due to impending IMO carbon regulations which will force ships to slow down to reduce emissions.
All this means that a huge number of new large containerships are going to hit the water in 2023 at a time of stagnating demand. Tonnage supply could potentially outstrip vessel demand again next year and the liner shipping market might be headed towards structural overcapacity.
“There is no doubt that we are moving towards a period in container shipping in which overcapacity is the chief challenge for carriers,” said Dominique von Orelli, Global Head, Ocean Freight, DHL Global Forwarding. “Hopefully, liners will take action to reduce empty slots, and look at improving service reliability for their customers.”] => 在过去两年创下利润记录后，集装箱运输公司现在面临着新的挑战。随着未来两年将有更多船舶交付，面对需求放缓，它们将如何管理运力和费率？
由于全球通货膨胀削弱信心和产出，剩余的消费支出正在恢复到疫情前水平，同时支出从产品转向旅游和外出就餐等服务。
政治不稳定、生产成本上升—尤其是由于能源成本飙升—以及消费者信心和经济增长率下降，显然正在影响需求。需求降低，运力增长，导致了费率下降。
“随着市场费率的下降，在未来几个月为客户提供最佳解决方案以优化成本至关重要，”DHL全球货运亚太区首席执行官梁启元（Kelvin Leung）表示。
班轮挑战
今年年初，航运公司的集装箱新订单达到了创纪录水平。尽管到2023年才能投入使用，但此举目的是引入新运力，缓解过去一年里不断累积的费率压力。
然而，市场形势发生了变化，乌克兰战争、能源危机和通货膨胀等各种事件导致消费者支出减少，从而导致货物需求下降。
集装箱运输公司目前在供应侧面临潜在挑战，产能过剩可能会影响利润。根据航运分析公司Alphaliner的数据，预计到2025年底，共有730万20英尺当量单位（TEU）的新造船运力将投入市场，占现有蜂窝船队的28.3%。
该分析公司称:“仅2023年和2024年，就将有510万TEU的新造船吨位加入船队，预计明年将有230万TEU, 2024年将有280万TEU。”“相比之下，预计2022年集装箱船队的新运力将只有约110万TEU，与前一年大致相同。”
目前的船队平均船龄不到14年，因此报废可能会受到控制，尽管由于即将出台的国际海事组织（IMO）碳法规将迫使船舶减速以减少排放，一些运力将有效地退出市场。
所有这些都意味着，在需求停滞的2023年，大量新的大型集装箱船将下水。明年，船舶吨位供应可能再次超过船舶需求，班轮运输市场可能走向结构性产能过剩。
“毋庸置疑，我们正在迈向集装箱运输业的一个时期，期间运力过剩是承运商面临的主要挑战，”DHL全球货运全球主管Dominique von Orelli表示，“希望运输公司能够采取行动减少空位，并着眼于为客户提高服务的可靠性。”
[wysiwyg] => wysiwyg
[outbound_box] => outbound_box
[A shift in consumer spend from products to services is putting pressure on the balance between capacity and demand. After posting record profits for the last two years, container lines are now facing a new challenge. With more ships due for delivery over the next two years, how will they manage capacity and rates in the face slowing demand?
As global inflation dampens confidence and output, any remaining consumer spending is reverting to pre-pandemic norms, with expenditure shifting from products back to services such as tourism and dining out.
Political instability, rising production costs – not least due to soaring energy costs – and subsiding consumer confidence and economic growth rates are clearly impacting demand. The combination of a lowered demand, along with growing capacity, has led to a drop in rates.
“With the downward shift in market rates, it is crucial to provide our customers with the best solutions to optimize their costs in the months to come,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.
The liner challenge
At the start of the year, shipping companies have placed record levels of new orders for container vessels. The aim was to introduce new capacity, though it would only be available in 2023, and relieve pressure on rates that have been building up over the past year.
However, the market situation has changed, with various events such as war in Ukraine, the energy crisis and inflation leading to lowered consumer spend, and thus demand in goods.
Containers lines are now facing a potential challenge on the supply-side, where overcapacity could impact profits. A total of 7.3 million twenty-foot-equivalent unit (TEU) of newbuilding capacity, representing 28.3 percent of the existing cellular fleet, is expected to hit the market by the end of 2025, according to shipping analyst firm Alphaliner.
“The years 2023 and 2024 alone will see a total of 5.1 million TEU of newbuilding tonnage joining the fleet, with 2.3 million TEU expected next year and 2.8 million TEU due in 2024,” reported the analyst. “By comparison, the containership fleet is expected to see only about 1.1m TEU of new capacity hitting the water in 2022, about the same as in the year before.”
The current fleet has an average age of less than 14 years, so scrapping is likely to be subdued, although some capacity will be effectively taken out of the market due to impending IMO carbon regulations which will force ships to slow down to reduce emissions.
All this means that a huge number of new large containerships are going to hit the water in 2023 at a time of stagnating demand. Tonnage supply could potentially outstrip vessel demand again next year and the liner shipping market might be headed towards structural overcapacity.
“There is no doubt that we are moving towards a period in container shipping in which overcapacity is the chief challenge for carriers,” said Dominique von Orelli, Global Head, Ocean Freight, DHL Global Forwarding. “Hopefully, liners will take action to reduce empty slots, and look at improving service reliability for their customers.”
RELATED ARTICLESDHL Ocean Freight Market Update Outlook 2022-2024Demand remains strong amidst limited capacity, with freight rates looking to stabilize much later in 2024.Continuing disruptions in China due to Covid-19
While port-related congestion issues in Europe and the U.S. have lessened, supply chain disruptions are continuing in China with its zero Covid-19 policy still in place. China’s Communist Party concluded its 20th National Congress in October but hopes that this might see a significant easing of the pandemic-driven restrictions have already been dashed. A much anticipated State Council press conference on 7 November saw officials reaffirm that China would be sticking to the strict policy that continues to dampen both international trade and China’s own economic growth.
“We are closely monitoring the situation in China, and hope to see some loosening of the restrictions by next year. This would allow manufacturers to plan production and deliveries more efficiently. It would also boost growth and confidence in the important Chinese domestic market,” added Leung.
RELATED ARTICLESShifting trends for air freight as the holiday season approachesShippers have to re-think their approach as air cargo demand lowers and ocean capacity returns.Economic outlook
The latest October PMI surveys signaled that the downturn in global economic activity is showing no sign of relenting. The J.P.Morgan Global Composite Output Index fell to 49.0 in October, from 49.6 in September, its lowest reading since June 2020.
Business optimism dipped to a 28-month low, reported J.P.Morgan, as “new order intakes and international trade flows continued to dwindle in the face of heightened economic, inflationary and political pressures”.
Bennett Parrish, Global Economist at J.P.Morgan, added: “With demand weak, geopolitical and market volatility high, and inflationary pressures still elevated, the growth outlook remains downbeat for the remainder of the year.”
Financial analyst firm S&P Global noted that the rate of decline for the eurozone economy was the fastest since April 2013 barring pandemic lockdowns, with manufacturing, and energy intensive sectors reporting the steepest output losses. Germany reported the sharpest economic contraction while growth in France “merely stalled”.
Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said: “The eurozone economy looks set to contract in the fourth quarter given the steepening loss of output and deteriorating demand picture seen in October, adding to speculation that a recession is looking increasingly inevitable.”
The U.S. economy is also struggling with manufacturing activity growing at its slowest pace. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its U.S. manufacturing PMI fell to 50.2 in October 2022 from 50.9 in September 2022, both the lowest readings since May 2020.
RELATED ARTICLESExpanding trade opportunities for Asia Pacific in a post-pandemic worldAccording to the DHL Trade Growth Atlas 2022, the region will lead the world in terms of trade growth over the next five years.Shifting rates
Traditional peak season barely materialized in 2022 and many industry observers feel that the slump is structural, rather than seasonal. These economic headwinds, and ongoing Covid-19 restrictions, have combined to impose heavy downward pressure on freight. Although uneven, the pressure is being felt globally.
Across many trade lanes, cargo volumes are weakening, according to the November DHL Ocean Freight Market Update. The end result? Spot freight rates are projected to move back to pre-pandemic levels.
The question that remains is whether there are signs of rates normalization in the near future.
RELATED ARTICLESDHL Ocean Freight Market Update – November 2022Find out the latest developments of the global ocean freight market in this monthly analysis by DHL Global Forwarding.] =>
[] =>
[incoming-capacity-challenges-ocean-freight] => incoming-capacity-challenges-ocean-freight
[OFR-market-update-Jan-2022-key-image] => OFR-market-update-Jan-2022-key-image
[Ocean Freight Market Update 2022-2024] => Ocean Freight Market Update 2022-2024
[shifting-trends-air-freight-holiday-season-key-image] => shifting-trends-air-freight-holiday-season-key-image
[expanding-trade-opportunities-asia-pacific-post-pandemic-world-key-image] => expanding-trade-opportunities-asia-pacific-post-pandemic-world-key-image
[OFR-Nov-2022-key-image] => OFR-Nov-2022-key-image
[incoming-capacity-challenges-ocean-freight-single-column] => incoming-capacity-challenges-ocean-freight-single-column
[incoming-capacity-challenges-ocean-freight-key-image] => incoming-capacity-challenges-ocean-freight-key-image
)
[$value] => Economic outlook
The latest October PMI surveys signaled that the downturn in global economic activity is showing no sign of relenting. The J.P.Morgan Global Composite Output Index fell to 49.0 in October, from 49.6 in September, its lowest reading since June 2020.
Business optimism dipped to a 28-month low, reported J.P.Morgan, as “new order intakes and international trade flows continued to dwindle in the face of heightened economic, inflationary and political pressures”.
Bennett Parrish, Global Economist at J.P.Morgan, added: “With demand weak, geopolitical and market volatility high, and inflationary pressures still elevated, the growth outlook remains downbeat for the remainder of the year.”
Financial analyst firm S&P Global noted that the rate of decline for the eurozone economy was the fastest since April 2013 barring pandemic lockdowns, with manufacturing, and energy intensive sectors reporting the steepest output losses. Germany reported the sharpest economic contraction while growth in France “merely stalled”.
Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said: “The eurozone economy looks set to contract in the fourth quarter given the steepening loss of output and deteriorating demand picture seen in October, adding to speculation that a recession is looking increasingly inevitable.”
The U.S. economy is also struggling with manufacturing activity growing at its slowest pace. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its U.S. manufacturing PMI fell to 50.2 in October 2022 from 50.9 in September 2022, both the lowest readings since May 2020.
)
Array
(
[derick] => Array
(
[A shift in consumer spend from products to services is putting pressure on the balance between capacity and demand.] => 消费者支出从产品转向服务，给运力和需求之间的平衡带来了压力。
[[]] =>
[Incoming capacity poses fresh challenges for ocean freight] => 进港运力给海运带来新挑战
[Continuing disruptions in China due to Covid-19
While port-related congestion issues in Europe and the U.S. have lessened, supply chain disruptions are continuing in China with its zero Covid-19 policy still in place. China’s Communist Party concluded its 20th National Congress in October but hopes that this might see a significant easing of the pandemic-driven restrictions have already been dashed. A much anticipated State Council press conference on 7 November saw officials reaffirm that China would be sticking to the strict policy that continues to dampen both international trade and China’s own economic growth.
“We are closely monitoring the situation in China, and hope to see some loosening of the restrictions by next year. This would allow manufacturers to plan production and deliveries more efficiently. It would also boost growth and confidence in the important Chinese domestic market,” added Leung.] =>
新冠疫情导致中国供应链持续中断
尽管欧洲和美国的港口拥堵问题有所缓解，但中国的新冠疫情动态清零政策仍在实施，供应链中断仍在继续。中国共产党于10月结束了第20次全国代表大会，疫情导致的限制可能会大幅放开的希望破灭了。11月7日，在备受期待的国务院新闻发布会上，官员们重申，中国将继续坚持严格的政策，尽管该政策持续抑制国际贸易和中国自身经济增长。
“我们正在密切关注中国的情况，并希望在明年之前看到限制有所放宽。这样制造商才能更有效地计划生产和交付。这也将促进中国重要的国内市场的增长和增强信心，”Leung补充道。
[Economic outlook
The latest October PMI surveys signaled that the downturn in global economic activity is showing no sign of relenting. The J.P.Morgan Global Composite Output Index fell to 49.0 in October, from 49.6 in September, its lowest reading since June 2020.
Business optimism dipped to a 28-month low, reported J.P.Morgan, as “new order intakes and international trade flows continued to dwindle in the face of heightened economic, inflationary and political pressures”.
Bennett Parrish, Global Economist at J.P.Morgan, added: “With demand weak, geopolitical and market volatility high, and inflationary pressures still elevated, the growth outlook remains downbeat for the remainder of the year.”
Financial analyst firm S&P Global noted that the rate of decline for the eurozone economy was the fastest since April 2013 barring pandemic lockdowns, with manufacturing, and energy intensive sectors reporting the steepest output losses. Germany reported the sharpest economic contraction while growth in France “merely stalled”.
Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said: “The eurozone economy looks set to contract in the fourth quarter given the steepening loss of output and deteriorating demand picture seen in October, adding to speculation that a recession is looking increasingly inevitable.”
The U.S. economy is also struggling with manufacturing activity growing at its slowest pace. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its U.S. manufacturing PMI fell to 50.2 in October 2022 from 50.9 in September 2022, both the lowest readings since May 2020.] =>
经济展望
最新的10月采购经理人指数(PMI)调查显示，全球经济活动的低迷没有缓和的迹象。10月摩根大通全球综合产出指数从9月的49.6降至49.0，为2020年6月以来的最低水平。
摩根大通(J.P.Morgan)报告称，商业乐观指数降至28个月以来的最低点，因为“在经济、通胀和政治压力加剧的情况下，新订单数量和国际贸易流量继续减少”。
摩根大通全球经济学家Bennett Parrish补充称:“由于需求疲软，地缘政治和市场波动性高，通胀压力仍在上升，在今年剩余时间实现增长的前景依然黯淡。”
金融分析公司标普全球指出，除疫情管控外，欧元区经济下滑速度为2013年4月以来最快的一次，制造业和能源密集型行业的产出损失最大。德国报告的经济萎缩最严重，而法国的增长“只是停滞不前”。
标普全球市场情报首席商业经济学家Chris Williamson表示:“考虑到10月份产出损失加剧和需求状况恶化，欧元区经济似乎将在第四季度出现收缩，这加剧了人们对衰退似乎越来越不可避免的猜测。”
美国经济还面临制造业活动增速降至最低的困境。美国供应管理协会称，2022年10月美国制造业PMI从2022年9月的50.9降至50.2，均为2020年5月以来的最低水平。
[Shifting rates
Traditional peak season barely materialized in 2022 and many industry observers feel that the slump is structural, rather than seasonal. These economic headwinds, and ongoing Covid-19 restrictions, have combined to impose heavy downward pressure on freight. Although uneven, the pressure is being felt globally.
Across many trade lanes, cargo volumes are weakening, according to the November DHL Ocean Freight Market Update. The end result? Spot freight rates are projected to move back to pre-pandemic levels.
The question that remains is whether there are signs of rates normalization in the near future.] =>
费率转变
历来的旺季在2022年几乎没有出现，许多行业观察人士认为，这种下滑是结构性的，而非季节性的。这些经济逆风，加上新冠疫情的限制措施，给货运带来了沉重的下行压力。尽管各地不均衡，但这种压力是全球性的。
根据DHL 11月海运市场更新报告，许多贸易通道上的货运量正在减弱。最终结果呢?现货运价预计将恢复到疫情前水平。
仍然存在的问题是，近期是否有费率正常化的迹象。
[After posting record profits for the last two years, container lines are now facing a new challenge. With more ships due for delivery over the next two years, how will they manage capacity and rates in the face slowing demand?
As global inflation dampens confidence and output, any remaining consumer spending is reverting to pre-pandemic norms, with expenditure shifting from products back to services such as tourism and dining out.
Political instability, rising production costs - not least due to soaring energy costs - and subsiding consumer confidence and economic growth rates are clearly impacting demand. The combination of a lowered demand, along with growing capacity, has led to a drop in rates.
“With the downward shift in market rates, it is crucial to provide our customers with the best solutions to optimize their costs in the months to come,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.
The liner challenge
At the start of the year, shipping companies have placed record levels of new orders for container vessels. The aim was to introduce new capacity, though it would only be available in 2023, and relieve pressure on rates that have been building up over the past year.
However, the market situation has changed, with various events such as war in Ukraine, the energy crisis and inflation leading to lowered consumer spend, and thus demand in goods.
Containers lines are now facing a potential challenge on the supply-side, where overcapacity could impact profits. A total of 7.3 million twenty-foot-equivalent unit (TEU) of newbuilding capacity, representing 28.3 percent of the existing cellular fleet, is expected to hit the market by the end of 2025, according to shipping analyst firm Alphaliner.
“The years 2023 and 2024 alone will see a total of 5.1 million TEU of newbuilding tonnage joining the fleet, with 2.3 million TEU expected next year and 2.8 million TEU due in 2024,” reported the analyst. “By comparison, the containership fleet is expected to see only about 1.1m TEU of new capacity hitting the water in 2022, about the same as in the year before.”
The current fleet has an average age of less than 14 years, so scrapping is likely to be subdued, although some capacity will be effectively taken out of the market due to impending IMO carbon regulations which will force ships to slow down to reduce emissions.
All this means that a huge number of new large containerships are going to hit the water in 2023 at a time of stagnating demand. Tonnage supply could potentially outstrip vessel demand again next year and the liner shipping market might be headed towards structural overcapacity.
“There is no doubt that we are moving towards a period in container shipping in which overcapacity is the chief challenge for carriers,” said Dominique von Orelli, Global Head, Ocean Freight, DHL Global Forwarding. “Hopefully, liners will take action to reduce empty slots, and look at improving service reliability for their customers.”] => 在过去两年创下利润记录后，集装箱运输公司现在面临着新的挑战。随着未来两年将有更多船舶交付，面对需求放缓，它们将如何管理运力和费率？
由于全球通货膨胀削弱信心和产出，剩余的消费支出正在恢复到疫情前水平，同时支出从产品转向旅游和外出就餐等服务。
政治不稳定、生产成本上升—尤其是由于能源成本飙升—以及消费者信心和经济增长率下降，显然正在影响需求。需求降低，运力增长，导致了费率下降。
“随着市场费率的下降，在未来几个月为客户提供最佳解决方案以优化成本至关重要，”DHL全球货运亚太区首席执行官梁启元（Kelvin Leung）表示。
班轮挑战
今年年初，航运公司的集装箱新订单达到了创纪录水平。尽管到2023年才能投入使用，但此举目的是引入新运力，缓解过去一年里不断累积的费率压力。
然而，市场形势发生了变化，乌克兰战争、能源危机和通货膨胀等各种事件导致消费者支出减少，从而导致货物需求下降。
集装箱运输公司目前在供应侧面临潜在挑战，产能过剩可能会影响利润。根据航运分析公司Alphaliner的数据，预计到2025年底，共有730万20英尺当量单位（TEU）的新造船运力将投入市场，占现有蜂窝船队的28.3%。
该分析公司称:“仅2023年和2024年，就将有510万TEU的新造船吨位加入船队，预计明年将有230万TEU, 2024年将有280万TEU。”“相比之下，预计2022年集装箱船队的新运力将只有约110万TEU，与前一年大致相同。”
目前的船队平均船龄不到14年，因此报废可能会受到控制，尽管由于即将出台的国际海事组织（IMO）碳法规将迫使船舶减速以减少排放，一些运力将有效地退出市场。
所有这些都意味着，在需求停滞的2023年，大量新的大型集装箱船将下水。明年，船舶吨位供应可能再次超过船舶需求，班轮运输市场可能走向结构性产能过剩。
“毋庸置疑，我们正在迈向集装箱运输业的一个时期，期间运力过剩是承运商面临的主要挑战，”DHL全球货运全球主管Dominique von Orelli表示，“希望运输公司能够采取行动减少空位，并着眼于为客户提高服务的可靠性。”
[wysiwyg] => wysiwyg
[outbound_box] => outbound_box
[A shift in consumer spend from products to services is putting pressure on the balance between capacity and demand. After posting record profits for the last two years, container lines are now facing a new challenge. With more ships due for delivery over the next two years, how will they manage capacity and rates in the face slowing demand?
As global inflation dampens confidence and output, any remaining consumer spending is reverting to pre-pandemic norms, with expenditure shifting from products back to services such as tourism and dining out.
Political instability, rising production costs – not least due to soaring energy costs – and subsiding consumer confidence and economic growth rates are clearly impacting demand. The combination of a lowered demand, along with growing capacity, has led to a drop in rates.
“With the downward shift in market rates, it is crucial to provide our customers with the best solutions to optimize their costs in the months to come,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.
The liner challenge
At the start of the year, shipping companies have placed record levels of new orders for container vessels. The aim was to introduce new capacity, though it would only be available in 2023, and relieve pressure on rates that have been building up over the past year.
However, the market situation has changed, with various events such as war in Ukraine, the energy crisis and inflation leading to lowered consumer spend, and thus demand in goods.
Containers lines are now facing a potential challenge on the supply-side, where overcapacity could impact profits. A total of 7.3 million twenty-foot-equivalent unit (TEU) of newbuilding capacity, representing 28.3 percent of the existing cellular fleet, is expected to hit the market by the end of 2025, according to shipping analyst firm Alphaliner.
“The years 2023 and 2024 alone will see a total of 5.1 million TEU of newbuilding tonnage joining the fleet, with 2.3 million TEU expected next year and 2.8 million TEU due in 2024,” reported the analyst. “By comparison, the containership fleet is expected to see only about 1.1m TEU of new capacity hitting the water in 2022, about the same as in the year before.”
The current fleet has an average age of less than 14 years, so scrapping is likely to be subdued, although some capacity will be effectively taken out of the market due to impending IMO carbon regulations which will force ships to slow down to reduce emissions.
All this means that a huge number of new large containerships are going to hit the water in 2023 at a time of stagnating demand. Tonnage supply could potentially outstrip vessel demand again next year and the liner shipping market might be headed towards structural overcapacity.
“There is no doubt that we are moving towards a period in container shipping in which overcapacity is the chief challenge for carriers,” said Dominique von Orelli, Global Head, Ocean Freight, DHL Global Forwarding. “Hopefully, liners will take action to reduce empty slots, and look at improving service reliability for their customers.”
RELATED ARTICLESDHL Ocean Freight Market Update Outlook 2022-2024Demand remains strong amidst limited capacity, with freight rates looking to stabilize much later in 2024.Continuing disruptions in China due to Covid-19
While port-related congestion issues in Europe and the U.S. have lessened, supply chain disruptions are continuing in China with its zero Covid-19 policy still in place. China’s Communist Party concluded its 20th National Congress in October but hopes that this might see a significant easing of the pandemic-driven restrictions have already been dashed. A much anticipated State Council press conference on 7 November saw officials reaffirm that China would be sticking to the strict policy that continues to dampen both international trade and China’s own economic growth.
“We are closely monitoring the situation in China, and hope to see some loosening of the restrictions by next year. This would allow manufacturers to plan production and deliveries more efficiently. It would also boost growth and confidence in the important Chinese domestic market,” added Leung.
RELATED ARTICLESShifting trends for air freight as the holiday season approachesShippers have to re-think their approach as air cargo demand lowers and ocean capacity returns.Economic outlook
The latest October PMI surveys signaled that the downturn in global economic activity is showing no sign of relenting. The J.P.Morgan Global Composite Output Index fell to 49.0 in October, from 49.6 in September, its lowest reading since June 2020.
Business optimism dipped to a 28-month low, reported J.P.Morgan, as “new order intakes and international trade flows continued to dwindle in the face of heightened economic, inflationary and political pressures”.
Bennett Parrish, Global Economist at J.P.Morgan, added: “With demand weak, geopolitical and market volatility high, and inflationary pressures still elevated, the growth outlook remains downbeat for the remainder of the year.”
Financial analyst firm S&P Global noted that the rate of decline for the eurozone economy was the fastest since April 2013 barring pandemic lockdowns, with manufacturing, and energy intensive sectors reporting the steepest output losses. Germany reported the sharpest economic contraction while growth in France “merely stalled”.
Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said: “The eurozone economy looks set to contract in the fourth quarter given the steepening loss of output and deteriorating demand picture seen in October, adding to speculation that a recession is looking increasingly inevitable.”
The U.S. economy is also struggling with manufacturing activity growing at its slowest pace. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its U.S. manufacturing PMI fell to 50.2 in October 2022 from 50.9 in September 2022, both the lowest readings since May 2020.
RELATED ARTICLESExpanding trade opportunities for Asia Pacific in a post-pandemic worldAccording to the DHL Trade Growth Atlas 2022, the region will lead the world in terms of trade growth over the next five years.Shifting rates
Traditional peak season barely materialized in 2022 and many industry observers feel that the slump is structural, rather than seasonal. These economic headwinds, and ongoing Covid-19 restrictions, have combined to impose heavy downward pressure on freight. Although uneven, the pressure is being felt globally.
Across many trade lanes, cargo volumes are weakening, according to the November DHL Ocean Freight Market Update. The end result? Spot freight rates are projected to move back to pre-pandemic levels.
The question that remains is whether there are signs of rates normalization in the near future.
RELATED ARTICLESDHL Ocean Freight Market Update – November 2022Find out the latest developments of the global ocean freight market in this monthly analysis by DHL Global Forwarding.] =>
[] =>
[incoming-capacity-challenges-ocean-freight] => incoming-capacity-challenges-ocean-freight
[OFR-market-update-Jan-2022-key-image] => OFR-market-update-Jan-2022-key-image
[Ocean Freight Market Update 2022-2024] => Ocean Freight Market Update 2022-2024
[shifting-trends-air-freight-holiday-season-key-image] => shifting-trends-air-freight-holiday-season-key-image
[expanding-trade-opportunities-asia-pacific-post-pandemic-world-key-image] => expanding-trade-opportunities-asia-pacific-post-pandemic-world-key-image
[OFR-Nov-2022-key-image] => OFR-Nov-2022-key-image
[incoming-capacity-challenges-ocean-freight-single-column] => incoming-capacity-challenges-ocean-freight-single-column
[incoming-capacity-challenges-ocean-freight-key-image] => incoming-capacity-challenges-ocean-freight-key-image
)
[$value] => Shifting rates
Traditional peak season barely materialized in 2022 and many industry observers feel that the slump is structural, rather than seasonal. These economic headwinds, and ongoing Covid-19 restrictions, have combined to impose heavy downward pressure on freight. Although uneven, the pressure is being felt globally.
Across many trade lanes, cargo volumes are weakening, according to the November DHL Ocean Freight Market Update. The end result? Spot freight rates are projected to move back to pre-pandemic levels.
The question that remains is whether there are signs of rates normalization in the near future.
)
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