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旺季来临前消费者需求可能不高

警惕可能再次冲击供应链的事件。
2022 年 8月 31 日 •

亚洲出口需求呈现疲软态势,而更多航空腹舱运力进入市场,再加上经济面临强劲逆风,预计第四季度航空货运旺季的需求量将明显低于2021和2020年同期水平。

通货膨胀严重影响发达经济体和消费者需求,国际货币基金组织、世界银行和很多分析师已经大幅下调了2022年和2023年的GDP增长预测。

DHL Global Forwarding亚太区首席执行官Kelvin Leung表示:“我们看到,欧洲对亚洲出口货物的需求量和出口新订单呈下行趋势,美国的需求和订单减少幅度更小一些,但也在下降。”

Leung指出,今年出现了明显的海空转换,表明相比过去两次由疫情带动的旺季,今年的旺季会更冷清些。

“但是港口和供应链的其他地方仍然存在许多瓶颈,随着节假日的临近,航空货运需求将回暖,也不会对全球物流造成太大冲击,”他补充说道。

运力增加

今年,全球运力一直在逐步回升,尤其是夏季中东以外的主要航线以及跨大西洋和亚洲内部航线释放了更多腹舱运力。

DHL的《7月航空货运行业状况报告》显示,7月份的总运力同比增长18%。8月份的报告指出,尽管遭受领空封锁和新冠疫情的持续影响,今年8月份的全球运力仅比2019年8月低11%。

运力增长的同时需求减少

另一方面,航空需求明显下降,部分原因是消费者的需求下降和通货膨胀。

国际航空运输协会(IATA)于8月初发布的最新6月份航运数据显示,全球航运需求(按照货物吨公里计算)同比下降6.4%,今年上半年的全球航运需求同比下降4.3%,而运力却同比增长4.5%。

亚太航空公司协会(AAPA)8月下旬的报告指出,在商业信心水平下降和国际贸易量大幅下降的背景下,航空货运需求“继续疲弱”。AAPA指出,7月份国际航空货运(按照货物吨公里计算)需求同比下降11.6%。

金融和分析公司野村证券(NELI)的外贸出口先导指数是一个由亚洲出口前瞻性指标组成的综合指数,涵盖10个经济体,包括中国、香港、印度、印度尼西亚、韩国、马来西亚、菲律宾、新加坡、台湾和泰国,日前预测与之前相比,“亚洲出口需求严重下滑”。

野村证券认为,出口需求减弱的迹象已经“愈发明显”,除日本外的亚洲第二季度出口量同比增长1.5%,已经远远低于13.8%的价值增长。

野村证券的另一份报告指出,出口先导指数现在“直到9月都是指向南方”,亚洲的出口增长“到年底可能从目前的百分之十几左右下滑到百分之几,并在明年初进入负增长阶段”。

野村证券预计,出口增长约在2023年年中进入下降周期。“这与我们的观点一致,即最初的放缓阶段反映了库存正在减少,以及中国需求疲软,”报告称。“但展望未来,随着发达经济体的最终需求放缓,经济疲软态势可能会蔓延,开始进入下行周期。”

看好空运进口的理由

2022年下半年也出现了一些积极的迹象。DHL香港航空贸易领先指数(DTI)用于衡量香港航空贸易商的业务前景预测,其第三季度报告显示,与第二季度(35.8点)相比,整体航空贸易指数有所回升,“主要因为空运进口指数从36点大幅反弹至43.1点,相当于第五次疫情爆发前的水平。”

指数值高于50点表示总体前景良好,而指数值低于50点则表示调查季度的总体前景不容乐观。

另一方面,空运(再)出口指数从35.5点缓慢回升至37.0点,非美国货币市场显示“进口明显回弹,但美洲是唯一下跌的市场”。

面向未来的权衡兼顾

Stifel公司全球物流和未来出行股权研究部主管兼高级分析师Bruce Chan在提交给波罗的海交易所的一份报告中指出,新冠疫情期间的空运需求水平和运费现在很可能已经上涨。

然而,他认为需求正在逐步放缓,而不是衰退,而供应只是逐渐放松。“我们认为,全球货运量已普遍到达峰值,”他解释道。

“绝对费率很可能继续上升。但是当前费率与一两年前费率水平的差距应继续减小。考虑到全球供应链中仍存在大量混乱,这一过程可能会比较缓慢,这意味着到2023年费率才会回归到之前的正常水平,”Chan补充道。

尽管最近的经济预测都持较谨慎态度,但仍有理由保持乐观。Leung补充道:“由于经济预测低迷,托运人选择航空货运时会更加谨慎,这完全可以理解。但市场仍然充满活力。许多关键航线都有增长空间,尤其是在旺季临近之际。”

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亚洲出口需求呈现疲软态势,而更多航空腹舱运力进入市场,再加上经济面临强劲逆风,预计第四季度航空货运旺季的需求量将明显低于2021和2020年同期水平。

通货膨胀严重影响发达经济体和消费者需求,国际货币基金组织、世界银行和很多分析师已经大幅下调了2022年和2023年的GDP增长预测。

DHL Global Forwarding亚太区首席执行官Kelvin Leung表示:“我们看到,欧洲对亚洲出口货物的需求量和出口新订单呈下行趋势,美国的需求和订单减少幅度更小一些,但也在下降。”

Leung指出,今年出现了明显的海空转换,表明相比过去两次由疫情带动的旺季,今年的旺季会更冷清些。

“但是港口和供应链的其他地方仍然存在许多瓶颈,随着节假日的临近,航空货运需求将回暖,也不会对全球物流造成太大冲击,”他补充说道。

运力增加

今年,全球运力一直在逐步回升,尤其是夏季中东以外的主要航线以及跨大西洋和亚洲内部航线释放了更多腹舱运力。

DHL的《7月航空货运行业状况报告》显示,7月份的总运力同比增长18%。8月份的报告指出,尽管遭受领空封锁和新冠疫情的持续影响,今年8月份的全球运力仅比2019年8月低11%。

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随着疫情封锁期间需求量减少,空运运力回升,即将到来的旺季和经济前景将面临更多的不确定性。

航空货运市场继续疲软,表现为运力增强但需求低迷,但即使腹舱运力已经恢复,总体状况仍没有发生太大变化。

DGF空运部全球主管Thomas Mack预计今年晚些时候航空货运市场将发生紧缩,并敦促业界随着旺季的临近要保持谨慎。

“今年6月和7月,全世界获得了一些喘息的空间,而我们预计今年旺季期间需求量也不会激增,”他说,还提到DHL的《7月航空货运行业状况报告》预测未来几个月内各贸易航线的需求量将持续呈现疲软态势,尤其是从亚洲到美国和欧洲的航线。

如果今年晚些时候经济不利因素能够缓解,那么仍有充足的市场回升空间――而且是很大的空间。

CLIVE数据服务公司称,由于俄乌战争、通胀率高涨、股市下跌和中国新冠肺炎疫情限制措施影响了企业信心和运输水平,今年5月航空货运市场总容量同比下降了8%。6月航空货运市场总容量的发展轨迹与之类似,同比下降了8%,与2019年6月相比下降了7%。

亚太航空公司协会总干事Subhas Menon先生称,经过2021年的增长之后,航空货运需求现在面临更多挑战,其中“由于全球经济前景越来越不明朗,出口订单在企业信心水平下降的驱动下面临下行压力”。

DGF亚太区首席执行官Kelvin Leung指出,除中国持续的新冠肺炎疫情限制措施外,通胀的压力也让业界谨慎看待2022年下半年的市场前景。“欧洲能源危机和劳动力短缺等持续性问题将继续对供应链造成影响,给未来几个月带来了很大的不确定性,”他补充道。

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运力增加

值得乐观的是,随着腹舱空间回归市场――虽然运力仍低于疫情前水平,货运选择在增多。2022年6月可用运力同比增长了6%。这是因为随着世界各地解除出行限制,更多的夏季客运航班进入市场。然而,总运力仍比2019年6月低11%。

根据《7月DHL航空货运市场最新消息》,虽然7月总运力同比增长18%,但客运运力与疫情前的2019年7月相比低了近19%。

脆弱的平衡

CLIVE称,今年6月,运力增加和经济状况的恶化压低了运费,尤其是北大西洋地区的费率在过去三个月内下降了30%。《7月DHL航空货运市场最新消息》也提到,今年6月的总体货物空运费仍比2019年6月高出120%,比2021年6月高出23%。

CLIVE公司创始人、Xeneta首席空运官Niall van de Wouw说道,虽然今年夏天运力有所提高,但疲软的大西洋市场甚至可能给从亚洲到美国和欧洲的航线造成更大的影响,因为如果承运商将运力从大西洋航线转移出来,那么从亚洲到美国和欧洲航线上的航班就会“相对饱和”。

“承运商会将他们的货机部署到亚太地区、非洲或南美洲的其他市场吗?可以看到市场上一些货机已经经历了重新部署,”van de Wouw说道。

“但即使是在跨大西洋贸易路线上仍然存在舱位短缺的情况。而从全球来看,主舱运力需求仍然较为旺盛,”他补充道。

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费率为何下降

Stifel公司全球物流和未来出行股权研究部主管和高级分析师Bruce Chan在提交给波罗的海交易所的一份报告中承认,Stifel曾预测运费将在6月上涨。在解释费率为何下降时,他提到了四个因素。

首先,本月燃油价格稳步下降,削弱了基本费率的上涨势头。

其次,第三季度一般是第二慢的航空货运季节,“在节假日高峰来临前,我们正在进入正常的夏末平静期”,因此费率下降在一定程度上可能是季节性的。

“第三个可能的原因是,中国解除封控后制造业恢复产能的速度比我们预期的更缓慢,之前如此,之后一段时间也将如此,”Chan说道。

最后,Chan认为,也存在从长期来看需求开始放缓的可能性。“我们看到任何迹象暗示经济已经开始衰退了吗?”他补充道。“在我们看来,航空货运数量和空运费很可能是一个先导指标,但我们没有明确的证据来支持这个论点,”Chan说道。

例如,2022年第一季度美国年化GDP下降了1.6%,但失业率和绝对消费支出数据较为坚挺,而且美国存货销售比仍然接近历史最低水平。

“我们没有也不能低估最后一种情形的可能性。而且,虽然我们预计2023年的某个时候会发生更大范围的经济放缓,但我们认为目前影响费率的因素是短期性的,”Chan补充道。

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DHL Air Freight State of the Industry – July 2022
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运力增长的同时需求减少

另一方面,航空需求明显下降,部分原因是消费者的需求下降和通货膨胀。

国际航空运输协会(IATA)于8月初发布的最新6月份航运数据显示,全球航运需求(按照货物吨公里计算)同比下降6.4%,今年上半年的全球航运需求同比下降4.3%,而运力却同比增长4.5%。

亚太航空公司协会(AAPA)8月下旬的报告指出,在商业信心水平下降和国际贸易量大幅下降的背景下,航空货运需求“继续疲弱”。AAPA指出,7月份国际航空货运(按照货物吨公里计算)需求同比下降11.6%。

金融和分析公司野村证券(NELI)的外贸出口先导指数是一个由亚洲出口前瞻性指标组成的综合指数,涵盖10个经济体,包括中国、香港、印度、印度尼西亚、韩国、马来西亚、菲律宾、新加坡、台湾和泰国,日前预测与之前相比,“亚洲出口需求严重下滑”。

野村证券认为,出口需求减弱的迹象已经“愈发明显”,除日本外的亚洲第二季度出口量同比增长1.5%,已经远远低于13.8%的价值增长。

野村证券的另一份报告指出,出口先导指数现在“直到9月都是指向南方”,亚洲的出口增长“到年底可能从目前的百分之十几左右下滑到百分之几,并在明年初进入负增长阶段”。

野村证券预计,出口增长约在2023年年中进入下降周期。“这与我们的观点一致,即最初的放缓阶段反映了库存正在减少,以及中国需求疲软,”报告称。“但展望未来,随着发达经济体的最终需求放缓,经济疲软态势可能会蔓延,开始进入下行周期。”

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旧火未灭,新火又起,跨国航运公司忙着“救火”,无暇他顾,贸易虽有增长,但是速度较慢。

目前,经济学家和分析师基本同意,全球经济正在放缓。同样地,其中大部分人预计,未来几个季度内,一些国家的经济几乎肯定会陷入衰退。

过去两年,受新冠疫情的影响,海运集装箱市场运力失衡,而今年港口运转逐渐恢复常态。不过事实证明,对于海运利益相关者而言,今年夏季的北半球海运仍充满了挑战,无论他们的计划做得多么周密详细,各种新的、重复发生的供应链中断问题都会把他们的计划打乱。

“为保证客户业务平稳运行,货运代理商习惯于进行危机管理,寻求各种解决方案。”DHL Global Forwarding亚太区首席执行官Kelvin Leung表示,“新冠疫情带来了更多的挑战,今年夏天也不例外。”

Leung还补充道:“虽然目前的经济迹象不容乐观,但是我们仍能在货运渠道捕捉到一些好的迹象,即使货运量可能会从新冠疫情时期的峰值回落到平稳状态,再进一步恢复到历史正常水平。”

欧洲供应链受炎炎夏日“烤”验

今年夏天,热浪肆虐,欧洲大陆主要河流干涸,水位大幅下降。到8月中旬,在欧洲最长的河流——多瑙河上,驳船几乎无法通航。与此同时,由于水位降至历史低位,重要的工业大动脉——莱茵河的某些河段也几乎无法输送货物。

欧洲各港口也发生了罢工事件。德国工会和德国港口运营商之间仍在谈判,而英国利物浦和费利克斯托港口的工人也宣布将在8月举行大规模罢工

对于本已捉襟见肘的欧洲铁路和公路网而言,驳船无法通行无异于雪上加霜。

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受疫情的持续影响,中国出口增速放缓

受疫情的持续影响,中国7月份的工厂活动意外减少。根据中国国家统计局的数据,今年官方制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)从6月份的50.2%降至7月份的49.0%,新订单和产量均出现下滑。部分原因是,深圳和天津的主要产区爆发了新冠疫情,随之而来的防疫封控措施打断了制造业的生产计划。

而且在过去几个星期,因为中国在台湾海峡进行实弹军事演习,全球航运也受到了影响。

美国港口运营状况改善, 但拥堵问题仍未解决

进入2022年,美国西海岸港口的拥堵状况已经得到明显缓解,尤其是拥堵情况曾经最为严重的两个北美主要门户:洛杉矶港和长滩港。

即便如此,美国港口的整体拥堵情况与年初相比并没有太大改善,因为拥堵的压力已转移到墨西哥湾和东海岸的港口。7月下旬,在美国各港口等待的船只数量超过150艘,其中等待的船只数量最多的港口分别是佐治亚州萨凡纳港、纽约-新泽西港、休斯顿港。由于大多数发货人为了避免货物在西海岸港口遭到拖延,纷纷改变原来的运输方案,导致今年美东港口的进口量创历史新高,造成了严重的拥堵问题。

航运公司的船期可靠性急剧下滑。根据Sea-Intelligence的数据,6月份东海岸服务的船期可靠性仅为18.7%,而迟到船舶的平均延误时间为9天。

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经济形势恶化

产品价格上涨,经济增长速度放缓,经济预期自然不会乐观。7月,国际货币基金组织(IMF)将2022年全球GDP增长预期下调至3.2%,比今年4月发布的预期又下降了0.4个百分点。

国际货币基金组织还将2023年全球经济增长预期调整至2.9%,比之前的预测下降了0.7个百分点。

在货运需求方面,国际货币基金组织进一步大幅下调对发达国家(许多集装箱产品的大买家)的预期。美国今年的经济增长预期被下调至2.3%,而4月份发布的预期为3.7%,美国2023年的增长预期也从此前的2.3%下调为仅1.0%。

德国作为欧洲最大的经济体,其2023年GDP增长预期被大幅下调1.9个百分点,预计增速为0.8%。国际货币基金组织还下调了整个欧洲2023年的经济增长预期,减少1.1个百分点,预计增速为1.2%。

受上述预期下调影响,今年全球商品和服务贸易预期增长4.1%,比国际货币基金组织4月份发布的预期降低了0.9个百分点。

集装箱运费下跌

由于宏观经济遭遇强劲逆风,许多主要贸易经济体预计将出现经济衰退,因此最近几周中国出口往程航线上的集装箱即期运费持续下跌。不过,虽然今年运费连续回落,但是价格依然高企。许多航线上的运费仍比疫情前的水平高出三到四倍。

虽然价格利好仍然存在,为阻止“跌跌不休”的运费,各运输企业已经开始取消许多船运航班

DHL Global Forwarding海运业务全球负责人Dominique von Orelli表示,各国央行控制通货膨胀和限制任何重大经济萎缩的速度,在很大程度上会影响海运价格的波动。

“显然,为了维持亚洲到欧美的主要航线以及其他贸易航线的集装箱舱位供需平衡,运输企业会继续取消船运航班。”他还补充道,“也就是说,即使经济的发展如预期的那般不乐观,集装箱市场仍可能相对紧张。目前,我们正在为所有可能发生的事情做准备,同时敦促我们的客户做好同样的准备。”

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看好空运进口的理由

2022年下半年也出现了一些积极的迹象。DHL香港航空贸易领先指数(DTI)用于衡量香港航空贸易商的业务前景预测,其第三季度报告显示,与第二季度(35.8点)相比,整体航空贸易指数有所回升,“主要因为空运进口指数从36点大幅反弹至43.1点,相当于第五次疫情爆发前的水平。”

指数值高于50点表示总体前景良好,而指数值低于50点则表示调查季度的总体前景不容乐观。

另一方面,空运(再)出口指数从35.5点缓慢回升至37.0点,非美国货币市场显示“进口明显回弹,但美洲是唯一下跌的市场”。

面向未来的权衡兼顾

Stifel公司全球物流和未来出行股权研究部主管兼高级分析师Bruce Chan在提交给波罗的海交易所的一份报告中指出,新冠疫情期间的空运需求水平和运费现在很可能已经上涨。

然而,他认为需求正在逐步放缓,而不是衰退,而供应只是逐渐放松。“我们认为,全球货运量已普遍到达峰值,”他解释道。

“绝对费率很可能继续上升。但是当前费率与一两年前费率水平的差距应继续减小。考虑到全球供应链中仍存在大量混乱,这一过程可能会比较缓慢,这意味着到2023年费率才会回归到之前的正常水平,”Chan补充道。

尽管最近的经济预测都持较谨慎态度,但仍有理由保持乐观。Leung补充道:“由于经济预测低迷,托运人选择航空货运时会更加谨慎,这完全可以理解。但市场仍然充满活力。许多关键航线都有增长空间,尤其是在旺季临近之际。”

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            [field_data] => 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
            [field_data_translated] => 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
        )

    [6] => stdClass Object
        (
            [field_data] => 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
            [field_data_translated] => 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
        )

    [7] => stdClass Object
        (
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            [field_data] => <p>Caution should still be exercised in light of ongoing events that could jolt the supply chain once more. </p><p>Softening exports out of Asia, more passenger aircraft bellyhold capacity entering the market, and strong economic headwinds are expected to produce a Q4 air cargo peak season which is significantly less vigorous than in 2021 and 2020.</p>
<p>Inflation is weighing heavily on advanced economies and consumer demand, with the International Monetary Fund, World Bank and most analysts heavily downgraded 2022 and 2023 GDP growth forecasts.</p>
<p>“We are seeing this playing out in demand from Europe, and to a lesser extent the U.S., for exports out of Asia as well as in less aggressive new orders,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.</p>
<p>Leung noted that there has been a significant air-to-ocean conversion this year, signalling a slightly more subdued peak season compared to the extremes from the last two pandemic-driven peaks.</p>
<p>“However, there are still so many bottlenecks at ports and elsewhere in supply chains that it would not take much of a jolt to global logistics flows for demand for air freight to get more forceful as we get closer to the holiday season,” he added.</p>
<h2>Capacity additions</h2>
<p>Global freight capacity has been gradually increasing through the year and has been buoyed this summer by additional bellyhold options on key routes out of the Middle East and on trans-Atlantic and intra-Asia lanes.</p>
<p><a href="https://lot.dhl.com/dhl-air-freight-state-of-the-industry-august-2022/">DHL’s July Airfreight State of the Industry report</a> recorded that overall capacity in July was up 18 percent year-on-year.  The August report notes that global capacity in August this year was just 11 percent lower than in August 2019, despite airspace closures and ongoing Covid-19 disruption.</p>
<p><strong>RELATED ARTICLES</strong></p><p><a href="https://lot.dhl.com/cautious-approach-peak-season-despite-brief-respite/"><figure><img src="https://lot.dhl.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/cautious-approach-peak-season-despite-brief-respite-key-image.jpg"/></figure></a><br/><a href="https://lot.dhl.com/cautious-approach-peak-season-despite-brief-respite/"><strong>Adopt cautious approach ahead of peak season despite brief respite</strong></a><br/>While air capacity saw some return with reduced demand from lockdowns, the approaching peak season and economic outlook spell further uncertainty.</p><h2>Demand reduction amidst capacity growth</h2>
<p>On the flipside, there is a noticeable dip in demand, in part due to lowered consumer requirements with inflation in play.</p>
<p>The latest after-the-fact data for June from the International Air Transport Association (IATA), which was released at the start of August, revealed that global demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres, was 6.4 percent below June 2021 levels. Global demand for the first half-year was 4.3 percent below 2021 levels, while capacity was up 4.5 percent.</p>
<p>The Association of Asia Pacific Airlines (AAPA) reported in late August that air cargo markets had “weakened further” due to falling export orders alongside worsening business and consumer confidence levels. The AAPA noted that in July international air cargo demand, as measured in freight-tonne kilometres, dropped by 11.6 percent year-on-year.</p>
<p>Financial and analyst firm Nomura’s export leading indicator (NELI), a composite index made up of forward-looking indicators of Asian exports covering 10 economies &#8211; China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand &#8211; is now predicting a “deeper slump in Asian exports” than previous readings.</p>
<p>Nomura believes evidence of weakening export demand has “gathered momentum”, with Asia excluding-Japan export volume growth of 1.5 percent year-on-year in Q2 already much weaker than value growth of 13.8 percent.</p>
<p>NELI is now “pointing south until September”, noted a Nomura report, with Asia’s export growth “likely to slump from the mid-teens currently to low single-digits by year-end, and into negative territory early next year”.</p>
<p>Nomura expects the in the export growth downcycle to occur only around mid-2023. “This is consistent with our view that the initial slowdown phase reflects an inventory destocking cycle, and weak demand in China,” said the report. “But going forward, the weakness is likely to spread as final demand slows across the advanced economies. The downcycle is just starting.”</p>
<p><strong>RELATED ARTICLES</strong></p><p><a href="https://lot.dhl.com/multiple-disruptions-putting-pressure-on-supply-chain/"><figure><img src="https://lot.dhl.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/multiple-disruptions-putting-pressure-on-supply-chain-key-image.jpg"/></figure></a><br/><a href="https://lot.dhl.com/multiple-disruptions-putting-pressure-on-supply-chain/"><strong>Multiple disruptions putting pressure on supply chain</strong></a><br/>Trade is growing at a sluggish pace as cargo movers across international borders continue to fight fires.</p><h2>Cause for optimism for air import</h2>
<p>Heading into the second half of 2022, there were also some positive signs. The Q3 report on the DHL Hong Kong Air Trade Leading Index (DTI), which measures the forward-looking business outlook of Hong Kong air traders, reported a recovery in the Overall Air Trade Index. It was a rise from 35.8 in Q2 to This was “mainly driven by a significant rebound in the Air Imports Index from 36 to 43.1 points, similar to the level prior to the fifth wave of the pandemic”.</p>
<p>An index value above 50 indicates an overall positive outlook while a reading below 50 represents an overall negative outlook for the surveyed quarter.</p>
<p>On the flip side, the Air (Re-)Exports Index recovered at a slower pace from 35.5 to 37.0 points with non-U.S. currency markets showing “an obvious improvement in imports, while Americas was the only market with a dip”.</p>
<h2>A balancing act for the future</h2>
<p>Bruce Chan, Director &amp; Senior Analyst, Global Logistics &amp; Future Mobility Equity Research at Stifel, noted in a report for the Baltic Exchange that the demand levels and freight rates witnessed during the pandemic had now most likely passed.</p>
<p>However, he argued that demand was moderating slowly, not collapsing, while supply was only gradually loosening. “Our view is that we have seen peak freight volumes, both broadly and on a global basis,” he explained.</p>
<p>“Absolute rates can still move higher. However, the gulf between current rates and those seen a year or two ago should continue to moderate. The process likely happens gradually given the amount of dislocation still present in global supply chains, which means that full normalisation of rates to historical levels probably will not happen until well into 2023,” added Chan.</p>
<p>Still, there is cause for optimism, despite the air of caution conveyed in recent economic forecasts. Leung adde: “Shippers are being more cautious about committing to air freight options which is entirely understandable given downbeat economic forecasts. But the market is still vibrant. Many key lanes have room for growth, especially as peak season looms.”</p>
<p><strong>RELATED ARTICLES</strong></p><p><a href="https://lot.dhl.com/dhl-air-freight-state-of-the-industry-august-2022/"><figure><img src="https://lot.dhl.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/AFR-August-2022-key-image.jpg"/></figure></a><br/><a href="https://lot.dhl.com/dhl-air-freight-state-of-the-industry-august-2022/"><strong>DHL Air Freight State of the Industry – August 2022</strong></a><br/>Find out the latest developments of the global air freight market in this monthly analysis by DHL Global Forwarding.</p>
            [field_data_translated] => <p>警惕可能再次冲击供应链的事件。 </p><p>亚洲出口需求呈现疲软态势，而更多航空腹舱运力进入市场,再加上经济面临强劲逆风，预计第四季度航空货运旺季的需求量将明显低于2021和2020年同期水平。</p>
<p>通货膨胀严重影响发达经济体和消费者需求，国际货币基金组织、世界银行和很多分析师已经大幅下调了2022年和2023年的GDP增长预测。</p>
<p>DHL Global Forwarding亚太区首席执行官Kelvin Leung表示：“我们看到，欧洲对亚洲出口货物的需求量和出口新订单呈下行趋势，美国的需求和订单减少幅度更小一些，但也在下降。”</p>
<p>Leung指出，今年出现了明显的海空转换，表明相比过去两次由疫情带动的旺季，今年的旺季会更冷清些。</p>
<p>“但是港口和供应链的其他地方仍然存在许多瓶颈，随着节假日的临近，航空货运需求将回暖，也不会对全球物流造成太大冲击，”他补充说道。</p>
<h2><strong>运力增加</strong></h2>
<p>今年，全球运力一直在逐步回升，尤其是夏季中东以外的主要航线以及跨大西洋和亚洲内部航线释放了更多腹舱运力。</p>
<p><u><a href="https://lot.dhl.com/dhl-air-freight-state-of-the-industry-august-2022/">DHL的《7月航空货运行业状况报告》</a></u>显示，7月份的总运力同比增长18%。8月份的报告指出，尽管遭受领空封锁和新冠疫情的持续影响,今年8月份的全球运力仅比2019年8月低11%。</p>
<p><strong>RELATED ARTICLES</strong></p><p><a href="https://lot.dhl.com/cautious-approach-peak-season-despite-brief-respite/"><figure><img src="https://lot.dhl.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/cautious-approach-peak-season-despite-brief-respite-key-image.jpg"/></figure></a><br/><a href="https://lot.dhl.com/cautious-approach-peak-season-despite-brief-respite/"><strong>Adopt cautious approach ahead of peak season despite brief respite</strong></a><br/>While air capacity saw some return with reduced demand from lockdowns, the approaching peak season and economic outlook spell further uncertainty.</p><h2><strong>运力增长的同时需求减少</strong></h2>
<p>另一方面，航空需求明显下降，部分原因是消费者的需求下降和通货膨胀。</p>
<p>国际航空运输协会（IATA）于8月初发布的最新6月份航运数据显示，全球航运需求（按照货物吨公里计算）同比下降6.4%，今年上半年的全球航运需求同比下降4.3%，而运力却同比增长4.5%。</p>
<p>亚太航空公司协会（AAPA）8月下旬的报告指出，在商业信心水平下降和国际贸易量大幅下降的背景下，航空货运需求“继续疲弱”。AAPA指出，7月份国际航空货运（按照货物吨公里计算）需求同比下降11.6%。</p>
<p>金融和分析公司野村证券（NELI）的外贸出口先导指数是一个由亚洲出口前瞻性指标组成的综合指数，涵盖10个经济体，包括中国、香港、印度、印度尼西亚、韩国、马来西亚、菲律宾、新加坡、台湾和泰国，日前预测与之前相比，“亚洲出口需求严重下滑”。</p>
<p>野村证券认为，出口需求减弱的迹象已经“愈发明显”，除日本外的亚洲第二季度出口量同比增长1.5%，已经远远低于13.8%的价值增长。</p>
<p>野村证券的另一份报告指出，出口先导指数现在“直到9月都是指向南方”，亚洲的出口增长“到年底可能从目前的百分之十几左右下滑到百分之几，并在明年初进入负增长阶段”。</p>
<p>野村证券预计，出口增长约在2023年年中进入下降周期。“这与我们的观点一致，即最初的放缓阶段反映了库存正在减少，以及中国需求疲软，”报告称。“但展望未来，随着发达经济体的最终需求放缓，经济疲软态势可能会蔓延，开始进入下行周期。”</p>
<p><strong>RELATED ARTICLES</strong></p><p><a href="https://lot.dhl.com/multiple-disruptions-putting-pressure-on-supply-chain/"><figure><img src="https://lot.dhl.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/multiple-disruptions-putting-pressure-on-supply-chain-key-image.jpg"/></figure></a><br/><a href="https://lot.dhl.com/multiple-disruptions-putting-pressure-on-supply-chain/"><strong>Multiple disruptions putting pressure on supply chain</strong></a><br/>Trade is growing at a sluggish pace as cargo movers across international borders continue to fight fires.</p><h2><strong>看好空运进口的理由</strong></h2>
<p>2022年下半年也出现了一些积极的迹象。DHL香港航空贸易领先指数（DTI）用于衡量香港航空贸易商的业务前景预测，其第三季度报告显示，与第二季度（35.8点）相比，整体航空贸易指数有所回升，“主要因为空运进口指数从36点大幅反弹至43.1点，相当于第五次疫情爆发前的水平。”</p>
<p>指数值高于50点表示总体前景良好，而指数值低于50点则表示调查季度的总体前景不容乐观。</p>
<p>另一方面，空运（再）出口指数从35.5点缓慢回升至37.0点，非美国货币市场显示“进口明显回弹，但美洲是唯一下跌的市场”。</p>
<h2><strong>面向未来的权衡兼顾</strong></h2>
<p>Stifel公司全球物流和未来出行股权研究部主管兼高级分析师Bruce Chan在提交给波罗的海交易所的一份报告中指出，新冠疫情期间的空运需求水平和运费现在很可能已经上涨。</p>
<p>然而，他认为需求正在逐步放缓，而不是衰退，而供应只是逐渐放松。“我们认为，全球货运量已普遍到达峰值，”他解释道。</p>
<p>“绝对费率很可能继续上升。但是当前费率与一两年前费率水平的差距应继续减小。考虑到全球供应链中仍存在大量混乱，这一过程可能会比较缓慢，这意味着到2023年费率才会回归到之前的正常水平，”Chan补充道。</p>
<p>尽管最近的经济预测都持较谨慎态度，但仍有理由保持乐观。Leung补充道：“由于经济预测低迷，托运人选择航空货运时会更加谨慎，这完全可以理解。但市场仍然充满活力。许多关键航线都有增长空间，尤其是在旺季临近之际。”</p>
<p><strong>RELATED ARTICLES</strong></p><p><a href="https://lot.dhl.com/dhl-air-freight-state-of-the-industry-august-2022/"><figure><img src="https://lot.dhl.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/AFR-August-2022-key-image.jpg"/></figure></a><br/><a href="https://lot.dhl.com/dhl-air-freight-state-of-the-industry-august-2022/"><strong>DHL Air Freight State of the Industry – August 2022</strong></a><br/>Find out the latest developments of the global air freight market in this monthly analysis by DHL Global Forwarding.</p>
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    [Caution should still be exercised in light of ongoing events that could jolt the supply chain once more.] => 警惕可能再次冲击供应链的事件。
    [[]] => 
    [Consumer demand likely less vigorous ahead of upcoming peak season] => 旺季来临前消费者需求可能不高
    [Demand reduction amidst capacity growth
On the flipside, there is a noticeable dip in demand, in part due to lowered consumer requirements with inflation in play.

The latest after-the-fact data for June from the International Air Transport Association (IATA), which was released at the start of August, revealed that global demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres, was 6.4 percent below June 2021 levels. Global demand for the first half-year was 4.3 percent below 2021 levels, while capacity was up 4.5 percent.

The Association of Asia Pacific Airlines (AAPA) reported in late August that air cargo markets had “weakened further” due to falling export orders alongside worsening business and consumer confidence levels. The AAPA noted that in July international air cargo demand, as measured in freight-tonne kilometres, dropped by 11.6 percent year-on-year.

Financial and analyst firm Nomura’s export leading indicator (NELI), a composite index made up of forward-looking indicators of Asian exports covering 10 economies - China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand - is now predicting a “deeper slump in Asian exports” than previous readings.

Nomura believes evidence of weakening export demand has “gathered momentum”, with Asia excluding-Japan export volume growth of 1.5 percent year-on-year in Q2 already much weaker than value growth of 13.8 percent.

NELI is now “pointing south until September”, noted a Nomura report, with Asia’s export growth “likely to slump from the mid-teens currently to low single-digits by year-end, and into negative territory early next year”.

Nomura expects the in the export growth downcycle to occur only around mid-2023. “This is consistent with our view that the initial slowdown phase reflects an inventory destocking cycle, and weak demand in China,” said the report. “But going forward, the weakness is likely to spread as final demand slows across the advanced economies. The downcycle is just starting.”] => 

运力增长的同时需求减少

另一方面,航空需求明显下降,部分原因是消费者的需求下降和通货膨胀。 国际航空运输协会(IATA)于8月初发布的最新6月份航运数据显示,全球航运需求(按照货物吨公里计算)同比下降6.4%,今年上半年的全球航运需求同比下降4.3%,而运力却同比增长4.5%。 亚太航空公司协会(AAPA)8月下旬的报告指出,在商业信心水平下降和国际贸易量大幅下降的背景下,航空货运需求“继续疲弱”。AAPA指出,7月份国际航空货运(按照货物吨公里计算)需求同比下降11.6%。 金融和分析公司野村证券(NELI)的外贸出口先导指数是一个由亚洲出口前瞻性指标组成的综合指数,涵盖10个经济体,包括中国、香港、印度、印度尼西亚、韩国、马来西亚、菲律宾、新加坡、台湾和泰国,日前预测与之前相比,“亚洲出口需求严重下滑”。 野村证券认为,出口需求减弱的迹象已经“愈发明显”,除日本外的亚洲第二季度出口量同比增长1.5%,已经远远低于13.8%的价值增长。 野村证券的另一份报告指出,出口先导指数现在“直到9月都是指向南方”,亚洲的出口增长“到年底可能从目前的百分之十几左右下滑到百分之几,并在明年初进入负增长阶段”。 野村证券预计,出口增长约在2023年年中进入下降周期。“这与我们的观点一致,即最初的放缓阶段反映了库存正在减少,以及中国需求疲软,”报告称。“但展望未来,随着发达经济体的最终需求放缓,经济疲软态势可能会蔓延,开始进入下行周期。” [Cause for optimism for air import Heading into the second half of 2022, there were also some positive signs. The Q3 report on the DHL Hong Kong Air Trade Leading Index (DTI), which measures the forward-looking business outlook of Hong Kong air traders, reported a recovery in the Overall Air Trade Index. It was a rise from 35.8 in Q2 to This was “mainly driven by a significant rebound in the Air Imports Index from 36 to 43.1 points, similar to the level prior to the fifth wave of the pandemic”. An index value above 50 indicates an overall positive outlook while a reading below 50 represents an overall negative outlook for the surveyed quarter. On the flip side, the Air (Re-)Exports Index recovered at a slower pace from 35.5 to 37.0 points with non-U.S. currency markets showing “an obvious improvement in imports, while Americas was the only market with a dip”. A balancing act for the future Bruce Chan, Director & Senior Analyst, Global Logistics & Future Mobility Equity Research at Stifel, noted in a report for the Baltic Exchange that the demand levels and freight rates witnessed during the pandemic had now most likely passed. However, he argued that demand was moderating slowly, not collapsing, while supply was only gradually loosening. “Our view is that we have seen peak freight volumes, both broadly and on a global basis,” he explained. “Absolute rates can still move higher. However, the gulf between current rates and those seen a year or two ago should continue to moderate. The process likely happens gradually given the amount of dislocation still present in global supply chains, which means that full normalisation of rates to historical levels probably will not happen until well into 2023,” added Chan. Still, there is cause for optimism, despite the air of caution conveyed in recent economic forecasts. Leung adde: “Shippers are being more cautious about committing to air freight options which is entirely understandable given downbeat economic forecasts. But the market is still vibrant. Many key lanes have room for growth, especially as peak season looms.”] =>

看好空运进口的理由

2022年下半年也出现了一些积极的迹象。DHL香港航空贸易领先指数(DTI)用于衡量香港航空贸易商的业务前景预测,其第三季度报告显示,与第二季度(35.8点)相比,整体航空贸易指数有所回升,“主要因为空运进口指数从36点大幅反弹至43.1点,相当于第五次疫情爆发前的水平。” 指数值高于50点表示总体前景良好,而指数值低于50点则表示调查季度的总体前景不容乐观。 另一方面,空运(再)出口指数从35.5点缓慢回升至37.0点,非美国货币市场显示“进口明显回弹,但美洲是唯一下跌的市场”。

面向未来的权衡兼顾

Stifel公司全球物流和未来出行股权研究部主管兼高级分析师Bruce Chan在提交给波罗的海交易所的一份报告中指出,新冠疫情期间的空运需求水平和运费现在很可能已经上涨。 然而,他认为需求正在逐步放缓,而不是衰退,而供应只是逐渐放松。“我们认为,全球货运量已普遍到达峰值,”他解释道。 “绝对费率很可能继续上升。但是当前费率与一两年前费率水平的差距应继续减小。考虑到全球供应链中仍存在大量混乱,这一过程可能会比较缓慢,这意味着到2023年费率才会回归到之前的正常水平,”Chan补充道。 尽管最近的经济预测都持较谨慎态度,但仍有理由保持乐观。Leung补充道:“由于经济预测低迷,托运人选择航空货运时会更加谨慎,这完全可以理解。但市场仍然充满活力。许多关键航线都有增长空间,尤其是在旺季临近之际。” [Softening exports out of Asia, more passenger aircraft bellyhold capacity entering the market, and strong economic headwinds are expected to produce a Q4 air cargo peak season which is significantly less vigorous than in 2021 and 2020. Inflation is weighing heavily on advanced economies and consumer demand, with the International Monetary Fund, World Bank and most analysts heavily downgraded 2022 and 2023 GDP growth forecasts. “We are seeing this playing out in demand from Europe, and to a lesser extent the U.S., for exports out of Asia as well as in less aggressive new orders,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific. Leung noted that there has been a significant air-to-ocean conversion this year, signalling a slightly more subdued peak season compared to the extremes from the last two pandemic-driven peaks. “However, there are still so many bottlenecks at ports and elsewhere in supply chains that it would not take much of a jolt to global logistics flows for demand for air freight to get more forceful as we get closer to the holiday season,” he added. Capacity additions Global freight capacity has been gradually increasing through the year and has been buoyed this summer by additional bellyhold options on key routes out of the Middle East and on trans-Atlantic and intra-Asia lanes. DHL’s July Airfreight State of the Industry report recorded that overall capacity in July was up 18 percent year-on-year.  The August report notes that global capacity in August this year was just 11 percent lower than in August 2019, despite airspace closures and ongoing Covid-19 disruption.] => 亚洲出口需求呈现疲软态势,而更多航空腹舱运力进入市场,再加上经济面临强劲逆风,预计第四季度航空货运旺季的需求量将明显低于2021和2020年同期水平。 通货膨胀严重影响发达经济体和消费者需求,国际货币基金组织、世界银行和很多分析师已经大幅下调了2022年和2023年的GDP增长预测。 DHL Global Forwarding亚太区首席执行官Kelvin Leung表示:“我们看到,欧洲对亚洲出口货物的需求量和出口新订单呈下行趋势,美国的需求和订单减少幅度更小一些,但也在下降。” Leung指出,今年出现了明显的海空转换,表明相比过去两次由疫情带动的旺季,今年的旺季会更冷清些。 “但是港口和供应链的其他地方仍然存在许多瓶颈,随着节假日的临近,航空货运需求将回暖,也不会对全球物流造成太大冲击,”他补充说道。

运力增加

今年,全球运力一直在逐步回升,尤其是夏季中东以外的主要航线以及跨大西洋和亚洲内部航线释放了更多腹舱运力。 DHL的《7月航空货运行业状况报告》显示,7月份的总运力同比增长18%。8月份的报告指出,尽管遭受领空封锁和新冠疫情的持续影响,今年8月份的全球运力仅比2019年8月低11%。 [wysiwyg] => wysiwyg [outbound_box] => outbound_box [Caution should still be exercised in light of ongoing events that could jolt the supply chain once more. Softening exports out of Asia, more passenger aircraft bellyhold capacity entering the market, and strong economic headwinds are expected to produce a Q4 air cargo peak season which is significantly less vigorous than in 2021 and 2020. Inflation is weighing heavily on advanced economies and consumer demand, with the International Monetary Fund, World Bank and most analysts heavily downgraded 2022 and 2023 GDP growth forecasts. “We are seeing this playing out in demand from Europe, and to a lesser extent the U.S., for exports out of Asia as well as in less aggressive new orders,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific. Leung noted that there has been a significant air-to-ocean conversion this year, signalling a slightly more subdued peak season compared to the extremes from the last two pandemic-driven peaks. “However, there are still so many bottlenecks at ports and elsewhere in supply chains that it would not take much of a jolt to global logistics flows for demand for air freight to get more forceful as we get closer to the holiday season,” he added. Capacity additions Global freight capacity has been gradually increasing through the year and has been buoyed this summer by additional bellyhold options on key routes out of the Middle East and on trans-Atlantic and intra-Asia lanes. DHL’s July Airfreight State of the Industry report recorded that overall capacity in July was up 18 percent year-on-year.  The August report notes that global capacity in August this year was just 11 percent lower than in August 2019, despite airspace closures and ongoing Covid-19 disruption. RELATED ARTICLESAdopt cautious approach ahead of peak season despite brief respiteWhile air capacity saw some return with reduced demand from lockdowns, the approaching peak season and economic outlook spell further uncertainty.Demand reduction amidst capacity growth On the flipside, there is a noticeable dip in demand, in part due to lowered consumer requirements with inflation in play. The latest after-the-fact data for June from the International Air Transport Association (IATA), which was released at the start of August, revealed that global demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres, was 6.4 percent below June 2021 levels. Global demand for the first half-year was 4.3 percent below 2021 levels, while capacity was up 4.5 percent. The Association of Asia Pacific Airlines (AAPA) reported in late August that air cargo markets had “weakened further” due to falling export orders alongside worsening business and consumer confidence levels. The AAPA noted that in July international air cargo demand, as measured in freight-tonne kilometres, dropped by 11.6 percent year-on-year. Financial and analyst firm Nomura’s export leading indicator (NELI), a composite index made up of forward-looking indicators of Asian exports covering 10 economies – China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand – is now predicting a “deeper slump in Asian exports” than previous readings. Nomura believes evidence of weakening export demand has “gathered momentum”, with Asia excluding-Japan export volume growth of 1.5 percent year-on-year in Q2 already much weaker than value growth of 13.8 percent. NELI is now “pointing south until September”, noted a Nomura report, with Asia’s export growth “likely to slump from the mid-teens currently to low single-digits by year-end, and into negative territory early next year”. Nomura expects the in the export growth downcycle to occur only around mid-2023. “This is consistent with our view that the initial slowdown phase reflects an inventory destocking cycle, and weak demand in China,” said the report. “But going forward, the weakness is likely to spread as final demand slows across the advanced economies. The downcycle is just starting.” RELATED ARTICLESMultiple disruptions putting pressure on supply chainTrade is growing at a sluggish pace as cargo movers across international borders continue to fight fires.Cause for optimism for air import Heading into the second half of 2022, there were also some positive signs. The Q3 report on the DHL Hong Kong Air Trade Leading Index (DTI), which measures the forward-looking business outlook of Hong Kong air traders, reported a recovery in the Overall Air Trade Index. It was a rise from 35.8 in Q2 to This was “mainly driven by a significant rebound in the Air Imports Index from 36 to 43.1 points, similar to the level prior to the fifth wave of the pandemic”. An index value above 50 indicates an overall positive outlook while a reading below 50 represents an overall negative outlook for the surveyed quarter. On the flip side, the Air (Re-)Exports Index recovered at a slower pace from 35.5 to 37.0 points with non-U.S. currency markets showing “an obvious improvement in imports, while Americas was the only market with a dip”. A balancing act for the future Bruce Chan, Director & Senior Analyst, Global Logistics & Future Mobility Equity Research at Stifel, noted in a report for the Baltic Exchange that the demand levels and freight rates witnessed during the pandemic had now most likely passed. However, he argued that demand was moderating slowly, not collapsing, while supply was only gradually loosening. “Our view is that we have seen peak freight volumes, both broadly and on a global basis,” he explained. “Absolute rates can still move higher. However, the gulf between current rates and those seen a year or two ago should continue to moderate. The process likely happens gradually given the amount of dislocation still present in global supply chains, which means that full normalisation of rates to historical levels probably will not happen until well into 2023,” added Chan. Still, there is cause for optimism, despite the air of caution conveyed in recent economic forecasts. Leung adde: “Shippers are being more cautious about committing to air freight options which is entirely understandable given downbeat economic forecasts. But the market is still vibrant. Many key lanes have room for growth, especially as peak season looms.” RELATED ARTICLESDHL Air Freight State of the Industry – August 2022Find out the latest developments of the global air freight market in this monthly analysis by DHL Global Forwarding.] =>

警惕可能再次冲击供应链的事件。

亚洲出口需求呈现疲软态势,而更多航空腹舱运力进入市场,再加上经济面临强劲逆风,预计第四季度航空货运旺季的需求量将明显低于2021和2020年同期水平。

通货膨胀严重影响发达经济体和消费者需求,国际货币基金组织、世界银行和很多分析师已经大幅下调了2022年和2023年的GDP增长预测。

DHL Global Forwarding亚太区首席执行官Kelvin Leung表示:“我们看到,欧洲对亚洲出口货物的需求量和出口新订单呈下行趋势,美国的需求和订单减少幅度更小一些,但也在下降。”

Leung指出,今年出现了明显的海空转换,表明相比过去两次由疫情带动的旺季,今年的旺季会更冷清些。

“但是港口和供应链的其他地方仍然存在许多瓶颈,随着节假日的临近,航空货运需求将回暖,也不会对全球物流造成太大冲击,”他补充说道。

运力增加

今年,全球运力一直在逐步回升,尤其是夏季中东以外的主要航线以及跨大西洋和亚洲内部航线释放了更多腹舱运力。

DHL的《7月航空货运行业状况报告》显示,7月份的总运力同比增长18%。8月份的报告指出,尽管遭受领空封锁和新冠疫情的持续影响,今年8月份的全球运力仅比2019年8月低11%。

RELATED ARTICLES


Adopt cautious approach ahead of peak season despite brief respite
While air capacity saw some return with reduced demand from lockdowns, the approaching peak season and economic outlook spell further uncertainty.

运力增长的同时需求减少

另一方面,航空需求明显下降,部分原因是消费者的需求下降和通货膨胀。

国际航空运输协会(IATA)于8月初发布的最新6月份航运数据显示,全球航运需求(按照货物吨公里计算)同比下降6.4%,今年上半年的全球航运需求同比下降4.3%,而运力却同比增长4.5%。

亚太航空公司协会(AAPA)8月下旬的报告指出,在商业信心水平下降和国际贸易量大幅下降的背景下,航空货运需求“继续疲弱”。AAPA指出,7月份国际航空货运(按照货物吨公里计算)需求同比下降11.6%。

金融和分析公司野村证券(NELI)的外贸出口先导指数是一个由亚洲出口前瞻性指标组成的综合指数,涵盖10个经济体,包括中国、香港、印度、印度尼西亚、韩国、马来西亚、菲律宾、新加坡、台湾和泰国,日前预测与之前相比,“亚洲出口需求严重下滑”。

野村证券认为,出口需求减弱的迹象已经“愈发明显”,除日本外的亚洲第二季度出口量同比增长1.5%,已经远远低于13.8%的价值增长。

野村证券的另一份报告指出,出口先导指数现在“直到9月都是指向南方”,亚洲的出口增长“到年底可能从目前的百分之十几左右下滑到百分之几,并在明年初进入负增长阶段”。

野村证券预计,出口增长约在2023年年中进入下降周期。“这与我们的观点一致,即最初的放缓阶段反映了库存正在减少,以及中国需求疲软,”报告称。“但展望未来,随着发达经济体的最终需求放缓,经济疲软态势可能会蔓延,开始进入下行周期。”

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Multiple disruptions putting pressure on supply chain
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看好空运进口的理由

2022年下半年也出现了一些积极的迹象。DHL香港航空贸易领先指数(DTI)用于衡量香港航空贸易商的业务前景预测,其第三季度报告显示,与第二季度(35.8点)相比,整体航空贸易指数有所回升,“主要因为空运进口指数从36点大幅反弹至43.1点,相当于第五次疫情爆发前的水平。”

指数值高于50点表示总体前景良好,而指数值低于50点则表示调查季度的总体前景不容乐观。

另一方面,空运(再)出口指数从35.5点缓慢回升至37.0点,非美国货币市场显示“进口明显回弹,但美洲是唯一下跌的市场”。

面向未来的权衡兼顾

Stifel公司全球物流和未来出行股权研究部主管兼高级分析师Bruce Chan在提交给波罗的海交易所的一份报告中指出,新冠疫情期间的空运需求水平和运费现在很可能已经上涨。

然而,他认为需求正在逐步放缓,而不是衰退,而供应只是逐渐放松。“我们认为,全球货运量已普遍到达峰值,”他解释道。

“绝对费率很可能继续上升。但是当前费率与一两年前费率水平的差距应继续减小。考虑到全球供应链中仍存在大量混乱,这一过程可能会比较缓慢,这意味着到2023年费率才会回归到之前的正常水平,”Chan补充道。

尽管最近的经济预测都持较谨慎态度,但仍有理由保持乐观。Leung补充道:“由于经济预测低迷,托运人选择航空货运时会更加谨慎,这完全可以理解。但市场仍然充满活力。许多关键航线都有增长空间,尤其是在旺季临近之际。”

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