Array
(
[derick] => Array
(
[Caution should still be exercised in light of ongoing events that could jolt the supply chain once more.] => 警惕可能再次冲击供应链的事件。
[[]] =>
[Consumer demand likely less vigorous ahead of upcoming peak season] => 旺季来临前消费者需求可能不高
[Demand reduction amidst capacity growth
On the flipside, there is a noticeable dip in demand, in part due to lowered consumer requirements with inflation in play.
The latest after-the-fact data for June from the International Air Transport Association (IATA), which was released at the start of August, revealed that global demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres, was 6.4 percent below June 2021 levels. Global demand for the first half-year was 4.3 percent below 2021 levels, while capacity was up 4.5 percent.
The Association of Asia Pacific Airlines (AAPA) reported in late August that air cargo markets had “weakened further” due to falling export orders alongside worsening business and consumer confidence levels. The AAPA noted that in July international air cargo demand, as measured in freight-tonne kilometres, dropped by 11.6 percent year-on-year.
Financial and analyst firm Nomura’s export leading indicator (NELI), a composite index made up of forward-looking indicators of Asian exports covering 10 economies - China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand - is now predicting a “deeper slump in Asian exports” than previous readings.
Nomura believes evidence of weakening export demand has “gathered momentum”, with Asia excluding-Japan export volume growth of 1.5 percent year-on-year in Q2 already much weaker than value growth of 13.8 percent.
NELI is now “pointing south until September”, noted a Nomura report, with Asia’s export growth “likely to slump from the mid-teens currently to low single-digits by year-end, and into negative territory early next year”.
Nomura expects the in the export growth downcycle to occur only around mid-2023. “This is consistent with our view that the initial slowdown phase reflects an inventory destocking cycle, and weak demand in China,” said the report. “But going forward, the weakness is likely to spread as final demand slows across the advanced economies. The downcycle is just starting.”] =>
运力增长的同时需求减少
另一方面，航空需求明显下降，部分原因是消费者的需求下降和通货膨胀。
国际航空运输协会（IATA）于8月初发布的最新6月份航运数据显示，全球航运需求（按照货物吨公里计算）同比下降6.4%，今年上半年的全球航运需求同比下降4.3%，而运力却同比增长4.5%。
亚太航空公司协会（AAPA）8月下旬的报告指出，在商业信心水平下降和国际贸易量大幅下降的背景下，航空货运需求“继续疲弱”。AAPA指出，7月份国际航空货运（按照货物吨公里计算）需求同比下降11.6%。
金融和分析公司野村证券（NELI）的外贸出口先导指数是一个由亚洲出口前瞻性指标组成的综合指数，涵盖10个经济体，包括中国、香港、印度、印度尼西亚、韩国、马来西亚、菲律宾、新加坡、台湾和泰国，日前预测与之前相比，“亚洲出口需求严重下滑”。
野村证券认为，出口需求减弱的迹象已经“愈发明显”，除日本外的亚洲第二季度出口量同比增长1.5%，已经远远低于13.8%的价值增长。
野村证券的另一份报告指出，出口先导指数现在“直到9月都是指向南方”，亚洲的出口增长“到年底可能从目前的百分之十几左右下滑到百分之几，并在明年初进入负增长阶段”。
野村证券预计，出口增长约在2023年年中进入下降周期。“这与我们的观点一致，即最初的放缓阶段反映了库存正在减少，以及中国需求疲软，”报告称。“但展望未来，随着发达经济体的最终需求放缓，经济疲软态势可能会蔓延，开始进入下行周期。”
[Cause for optimism for air import
Heading into the second half of 2022, there were also some positive signs. The Q3 report on the DHL Hong Kong Air Trade Leading Index (DTI), which measures the forward-looking business outlook of Hong Kong air traders, reported a recovery in the Overall Air Trade Index. It was a rise from 35.8 in Q2 to This was “mainly driven by a significant rebound in the Air Imports Index from 36 to 43.1 points, similar to the level prior to the fifth wave of the pandemic”.
An index value above 50 indicates an overall positive outlook while a reading below 50 represents an overall negative outlook for the surveyed quarter.
On the flip side, the Air (Re-)Exports Index recovered at a slower pace from 35.5 to 37.0 points with non-U.S. currency markets showing “an obvious improvement in imports, while Americas was the only market with a dip”.
A balancing act for the future
Bruce Chan, Director & Senior Analyst, Global Logistics & Future Mobility Equity Research at Stifel, noted in a report for the Baltic Exchange that the demand levels and freight rates witnessed during the pandemic had now most likely passed.
However, he argued that demand was moderating slowly, not collapsing, while supply was only gradually loosening. “Our view is that we have seen peak freight volumes, both broadly and on a global basis,” he explained.
“Absolute rates can still move higher. However, the gulf between current rates and those seen a year or two ago should continue to moderate. The process likely happens gradually given the amount of dislocation still present in global supply chains, which means that full normalisation of rates to historical levels probably will not happen until well into 2023,” added Chan.
Still, there is cause for optimism, despite the air of caution conveyed in recent economic forecasts. Leung adde: “Shippers are being more cautious about committing to air freight options which is entirely understandable given downbeat economic forecasts. But the market is still vibrant. Many key lanes have room for growth, especially as peak season looms.”] =>
Stifel公司全球物流和未来出行股权研究部主管兼高级分析师Bruce Chan在提交给波罗的海交易所的一份报告中指出，新冠疫情期间的空运需求水平和运费现在很可能已经上涨。
然而，他认为需求正在逐步放缓，而不是衰退，而供应只是逐渐放松。“我们认为，全球货运量已普遍到达峰值，”他解释道。
“绝对费率很可能继续上升。但是当前费率与一两年前费率水平的差距应继续减小。考虑到全球供应链中仍存在大量混乱，这一过程可能会比较缓慢，这意味着到2023年费率才会回归到之前的正常水平，”Chan补充道。
尽管最近的经济预测都持较谨慎态度，但仍有理由保持乐观。Leung补充道：“由于经济预测低迷，托运人选择航空货运时会更加谨慎，这完全可以理解。但市场仍然充满活力。许多关键航线都有增长空间，尤其是在旺季临近之际。”
[Softening exports out of Asia, more passenger aircraft bellyhold capacity entering the market, and strong economic headwinds are expected to produce a Q4 air cargo peak season which is significantly less vigorous than in 2021 and 2020.
Inflation is weighing heavily on advanced economies and consumer demand, with the International Monetary Fund, World Bank and most analysts heavily downgraded 2022 and 2023 GDP growth forecasts.
“We are seeing this playing out in demand from Europe, and to a lesser extent the U.S., for exports out of Asia as well as in less aggressive new orders,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.
Leung noted that there has been a significant air-to-ocean conversion this year, signalling a slightly more subdued peak season compared to the extremes from the last two pandemic-driven peaks.
“However, there are still so many bottlenecks at ports and elsewhere in supply chains that it would not take much of a jolt to global logistics flows for demand for air freight to get more forceful as we get closer to the holiday season,” he added.
Capacity additions
Global freight capacity has been gradually increasing through the year and has been buoyed this summer by additional bellyhold options on key routes out of the Middle East and on trans-Atlantic and intra-Asia lanes.
DHL’s July Airfreight State of the Industry report recorded that overall capacity in July was up 18 percent year-on-year. The August report notes that global capacity in August this year was just 11 percent lower than in August 2019, despite airspace closures and ongoing Covid-19 disruption.] => 亚洲出口需求呈现疲软态势，而更多航空腹舱运力进入市场,再加上经济面临强劲逆风，预计第四季度航空货运旺季的需求量将明显低于2021和2020年同期水平。
通货膨胀严重影响发达经济体和消费者需求，国际货币基金组织、世界银行和很多分析师已经大幅下调了2022年和2023年的GDP增长预测。
DHL Global Forwarding亚太区首席执行官Kelvin Leung表示：“我们看到，欧洲对亚洲出口货物的需求量和出口新订单呈下行趋势，美国的需求和订单减少幅度更小一些，但也在下降。”
Leung指出，今年出现了明显的海空转换，表明相比过去两次由疫情带动的旺季，今年的旺季会更冷清些。
“但是港口和供应链的其他地方仍然存在许多瓶颈，随着节假日的临近，航空货运需求将回暖，也不会对全球物流造成太大冲击，”他补充说道。
运力增加
今年，全球运力一直在逐步回升，尤其是夏季中东以外的主要航线以及跨大西洋和亚洲内部航线释放了更多腹舱运力。
DHL的《7月航空货运行业状况报告》显示，7月份的总运力同比增长18%。8月份的报告指出，尽管遭受领空封锁和新冠疫情的持续影响,今年8月份的全球运力仅比2019年8月低11%。
[wysiwyg] => wysiwyg
[outbound_box] => outbound_box
[Caution should still be exercised in light of ongoing events that could jolt the supply chain once more. Softening exports out of Asia, more passenger aircraft bellyhold capacity entering the market, and strong economic headwinds are expected to produce a Q4 air cargo peak season which is significantly less vigorous than in 2021 and 2020.
Inflation is weighing heavily on advanced economies and consumer demand, with the International Monetary Fund, World Bank and most analysts heavily downgraded 2022 and 2023 GDP growth forecasts.
“We are seeing this playing out in demand from Europe, and to a lesser extent the U.S., for exports out of Asia as well as in less aggressive new orders,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.
Leung noted that there has been a significant air-to-ocean conversion this year, signalling a slightly more subdued peak season compared to the extremes from the last two pandemic-driven peaks.
“However, there are still so many bottlenecks at ports and elsewhere in supply chains that it would not take much of a jolt to global logistics flows for demand for air freight to get more forceful as we get closer to the holiday season,” he added.
Capacity additions
Global freight capacity has been gradually increasing through the year and has been buoyed this summer by additional bellyhold options on key routes out of the Middle East and on trans-Atlantic and intra-Asia lanes.
DHL’s July Airfreight State of the Industry report recorded that overall capacity in July was up 18 percent year-on-year. The August report notes that global capacity in August this year was just 11 percent lower than in August 2019, despite airspace closures and ongoing Covid-19 disruption.
RELATED ARTICLESAdopt cautious approach ahead of peak season despite brief respiteWhile air capacity saw some return with reduced demand from lockdowns, the approaching peak season and economic outlook spell further uncertainty.Demand reduction amidst capacity growth
On the flipside, there is a noticeable dip in demand, in part due to lowered consumer requirements with inflation in play.
The latest after-the-fact data for June from the International Air Transport Association (IATA), which was released at the start of August, revealed that global demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres, was 6.4 percent below June 2021 levels. Global demand for the first half-year was 4.3 percent below 2021 levels, while capacity was up 4.5 percent.
The Association of Asia Pacific Airlines (AAPA) reported in late August that air cargo markets had “weakened further” due to falling export orders alongside worsening business and consumer confidence levels. The AAPA noted that in July international air cargo demand, as measured in freight-tonne kilometres, dropped by 11.6 percent year-on-year.
Financial and analyst firm Nomura’s export leading indicator (NELI), a composite index made up of forward-looking indicators of Asian exports covering 10 economies – China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand – is now predicting a “deeper slump in Asian exports” than previous readings.
Nomura believes evidence of weakening export demand has “gathered momentum”, with Asia excluding-Japan export volume growth of 1.5 percent year-on-year in Q2 already much weaker than value growth of 13.8 percent.
NELI is now “pointing south until September”, noted a Nomura report, with Asia’s export growth “likely to slump from the mid-teens currently to low single-digits by year-end, and into negative territory early next year”.
Nomura expects the in the export growth downcycle to occur only around mid-2023. “This is consistent with our view that the initial slowdown phase reflects an inventory destocking cycle, and weak demand in China,” said the report. “But going forward, the weakness is likely to spread as final demand slows across the advanced economies. The downcycle is just starting.”
RELATED ARTICLESMultiple disruptions putting pressure on supply chainTrade is growing at a sluggish pace as cargo movers across international borders continue to fight fires.Cause for optimism for air import
Heading into the second half of 2022, there were also some positive signs. The Q3 report on the DHL Hong Kong Air Trade Leading Index (DTI), which measures the forward-looking business outlook of Hong Kong air traders, reported a recovery in the Overall Air Trade Index. It was a rise from 35.8 in Q2 to This was “mainly driven by a significant rebound in the Air Imports Index from 36 to 43.1 points, similar to the level prior to the fifth wave of the pandemic”.
An index value above 50 indicates an overall positive outlook while a reading below 50 represents an overall negative outlook for the surveyed quarter.
On the flip side, the Air (Re-)Exports Index recovered at a slower pace from 35.5 to 37.0 points with non-U.S. currency markets showing “an obvious improvement in imports, while Americas was the only market with a dip”.
A balancing act for the future
Bruce Chan, Director & Senior Analyst, Global Logistics & Future Mobility Equity Research at Stifel, noted in a report for the Baltic Exchange that the demand levels and freight rates witnessed during the pandemic had now most likely passed.
However, he argued that demand was moderating slowly, not collapsing, while supply was only gradually loosening. “Our view is that we have seen peak freight volumes, both broadly and on a global basis,” he explained.
“Absolute rates can still move higher. However, the gulf between current rates and those seen a year or two ago should continue to moderate. The process likely happens gradually given the amount of dislocation still present in global supply chains, which means that full normalisation of rates to historical levels probably will not happen until well into 2023,” added Chan.
Still, there is cause for optimism, despite the air of caution conveyed in recent economic forecasts. Leung adde: “Shippers are being more cautious about committing to air freight options which is entirely understandable given downbeat economic forecasts. But the market is still vibrant. Many key lanes have room for growth, especially as peak season looms.”
RELATED ARTICLESDHL Air Freight State of the Industry – August 2022Find out the latest developments of the global air freight market in this monthly analysis by DHL Global Forwarding.] =>
[] =>
[consumer-demand-less-vigorous-peak-season] => consumer-demand-less-vigorous-peak-season
[cautious-approach-peak-season-despite-brief-respite-key-image] => cautious-approach-peak-season-despite-brief-respite-key-image
[Adopt cautious approach ahead of peak season despite brief respite Meta] => Adopt cautious approach ahead of peak season despite brief respite Meta
[multiple-disruptions-putting-pressure-on-supply-chain-key-image] => multiple-disruptions-putting-pressure-on-supply-chain-key-image
[AFR-August-2022-key-image] => AFR-August-2022-key-image
[consumer-demand-less-vigorous-peak-season-single-column] => consumer-demand-less-vigorous-peak-season-single-column
[consumer-demand-less-vigorous-peak-season-key-image] => consumer-demand-less-vigorous-peak-season-key-image
)
[$value] => Softening exports out of Asia, more passenger aircraft bellyhold capacity entering the market, and strong economic headwinds are expected to produce a Q4 air cargo peak season which is significantly less vigorous than in 2021 and 2020.
Inflation is weighing heavily on advanced economies and consumer demand, with the International Monetary Fund, World Bank and most analysts heavily downgraded 2022 and 2023 GDP growth forecasts.
“We are seeing this playing out in demand from Europe, and to a lesser extent the U.S., for exports out of Asia as well as in less aggressive new orders,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.
Leung noted that there has been a significant air-to-ocean conversion this year, signalling a slightly more subdued peak season compared to the extremes from the last two pandemic-driven peaks.
“However, there are still so many bottlenecks at ports and elsewhere in supply chains that it would not take much of a jolt to global logistics flows for demand for air freight to get more forceful as we get closer to the holiday season,” he added.
Capacity additions
Global freight capacity has been gradually increasing through the year and has been buoyed this summer by additional bellyhold options on key routes out of the Middle East and on trans-Atlantic and intra-Asia lanes.
DHL’s July Airfreight State of the Industry report recorded that overall capacity in July was up 18 percent year-on-year. The August report notes that global capacity in August this year was just 11 percent lower than in August 2019, despite airspace closures and ongoing Covid-19 disruption.
)
Array
(
[derick] => Array
(
[Caution should still be exercised in light of ongoing events that could jolt the supply chain once more.] => 警惕可能再次冲击供应链的事件。
[[]] =>
[Consumer demand likely less vigorous ahead of upcoming peak season] => 旺季来临前消费者需求可能不高
[Demand reduction amidst capacity growth
On the flipside, there is a noticeable dip in demand, in part due to lowered consumer requirements with inflation in play.
The latest after-the-fact data for June from the International Air Transport Association (IATA), which was released at the start of August, revealed that global demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres, was 6.4 percent below June 2021 levels. Global demand for the first half-year was 4.3 percent below 2021 levels, while capacity was up 4.5 percent.
The Association of Asia Pacific Airlines (AAPA) reported in late August that air cargo markets had “weakened further” due to falling export orders alongside worsening business and consumer confidence levels. The AAPA noted that in July international air cargo demand, as measured in freight-tonne kilometres, dropped by 11.6 percent year-on-year.
Financial and analyst firm Nomura’s export leading indicator (NELI), a composite index made up of forward-looking indicators of Asian exports covering 10 economies - China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand - is now predicting a “deeper slump in Asian exports” than previous readings.
Nomura believes evidence of weakening export demand has “gathered momentum”, with Asia excluding-Japan export volume growth of 1.5 percent year-on-year in Q2 already much weaker than value growth of 13.8 percent.
NELI is now “pointing south until September”, noted a Nomura report, with Asia’s export growth “likely to slump from the mid-teens currently to low single-digits by year-end, and into negative territory early next year”.
Nomura expects the in the export growth downcycle to occur only around mid-2023. “This is consistent with our view that the initial slowdown phase reflects an inventory destocking cycle, and weak demand in China,” said the report. “But going forward, the weakness is likely to spread as final demand slows across the advanced economies. The downcycle is just starting.”] =>
运力增长的同时需求减少
另一方面，航空需求明显下降，部分原因是消费者的需求下降和通货膨胀。
国际航空运输协会（IATA）于8月初发布的最新6月份航运数据显示，全球航运需求（按照货物吨公里计算）同比下降6.4%，今年上半年的全球航运需求同比下降4.3%，而运力却同比增长4.5%。
亚太航空公司协会（AAPA）8月下旬的报告指出，在商业信心水平下降和国际贸易量大幅下降的背景下，航空货运需求“继续疲弱”。AAPA指出，7月份国际航空货运（按照货物吨公里计算）需求同比下降11.6%。
金融和分析公司野村证券（NELI）的外贸出口先导指数是一个由亚洲出口前瞻性指标组成的综合指数，涵盖10个经济体，包括中国、香港、印度、印度尼西亚、韩国、马来西亚、菲律宾、新加坡、台湾和泰国，日前预测与之前相比，“亚洲出口需求严重下滑”。
野村证券认为，出口需求减弱的迹象已经“愈发明显”，除日本外的亚洲第二季度出口量同比增长1.5%，已经远远低于13.8%的价值增长。
野村证券的另一份报告指出，出口先导指数现在“直到9月都是指向南方”，亚洲的出口增长“到年底可能从目前的百分之十几左右下滑到百分之几，并在明年初进入负增长阶段”。
野村证券预计，出口增长约在2023年年中进入下降周期。“这与我们的观点一致，即最初的放缓阶段反映了库存正在减少，以及中国需求疲软，”报告称。“但展望未来，随着发达经济体的最终需求放缓，经济疲软态势可能会蔓延，开始进入下行周期。”
[Cause for optimism for air import
Heading into the second half of 2022, there were also some positive signs. The Q3 report on the DHL Hong Kong Air Trade Leading Index (DTI), which measures the forward-looking business outlook of Hong Kong air traders, reported a recovery in the Overall Air Trade Index. It was a rise from 35.8 in Q2 to This was “mainly driven by a significant rebound in the Air Imports Index from 36 to 43.1 points, similar to the level prior to the fifth wave of the pandemic”.
An index value above 50 indicates an overall positive outlook while a reading below 50 represents an overall negative outlook for the surveyed quarter.
On the flip side, the Air (Re-)Exports Index recovered at a slower pace from 35.5 to 37.0 points with non-U.S. currency markets showing “an obvious improvement in imports, while Americas was the only market with a dip”.
A balancing act for the future
Bruce Chan, Director & Senior Analyst, Global Logistics & Future Mobility Equity Research at Stifel, noted in a report for the Baltic Exchange that the demand levels and freight rates witnessed during the pandemic had now most likely passed.
However, he argued that demand was moderating slowly, not collapsing, while supply was only gradually loosening. “Our view is that we have seen peak freight volumes, both broadly and on a global basis,” he explained.
“Absolute rates can still move higher. However, the gulf between current rates and those seen a year or two ago should continue to moderate. The process likely happens gradually given the amount of dislocation still present in global supply chains, which means that full normalisation of rates to historical levels probably will not happen until well into 2023,” added Chan.
Still, there is cause for optimism, despite the air of caution conveyed in recent economic forecasts. Leung adde: “Shippers are being more cautious about committing to air freight options which is entirely understandable given downbeat economic forecasts. But the market is still vibrant. Many key lanes have room for growth, especially as peak season looms.”] =>
Stifel公司全球物流和未来出行股权研究部主管兼高级分析师Bruce Chan在提交给波罗的海交易所的一份报告中指出，新冠疫情期间的空运需求水平和运费现在很可能已经上涨。
然而，他认为需求正在逐步放缓，而不是衰退，而供应只是逐渐放松。“我们认为，全球货运量已普遍到达峰值，”他解释道。
“绝对费率很可能继续上升。但是当前费率与一两年前费率水平的差距应继续减小。考虑到全球供应链中仍存在大量混乱，这一过程可能会比较缓慢，这意味着到2023年费率才会回归到之前的正常水平，”Chan补充道。
尽管最近的经济预测都持较谨慎态度，但仍有理由保持乐观。Leung补充道：“由于经济预测低迷，托运人选择航空货运时会更加谨慎，这完全可以理解。但市场仍然充满活力。许多关键航线都有增长空间，尤其是在旺季临近之际。”
[Softening exports out of Asia, more passenger aircraft bellyhold capacity entering the market, and strong economic headwinds are expected to produce a Q4 air cargo peak season which is significantly less vigorous than in 2021 and 2020.
Inflation is weighing heavily on advanced economies and consumer demand, with the International Monetary Fund, World Bank and most analysts heavily downgraded 2022 and 2023 GDP growth forecasts.
“We are seeing this playing out in demand from Europe, and to a lesser extent the U.S., for exports out of Asia as well as in less aggressive new orders,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.
Leung noted that there has been a significant air-to-ocean conversion this year, signalling a slightly more subdued peak season compared to the extremes from the last two pandemic-driven peaks.
“However, there are still so many bottlenecks at ports and elsewhere in supply chains that it would not take much of a jolt to global logistics flows for demand for air freight to get more forceful as we get closer to the holiday season,” he added.
Capacity additions
Global freight capacity has been gradually increasing through the year and has been buoyed this summer by additional bellyhold options on key routes out of the Middle East and on trans-Atlantic and intra-Asia lanes.
DHL’s July Airfreight State of the Industry report recorded that overall capacity in July was up 18 percent year-on-year. The August report notes that global capacity in August this year was just 11 percent lower than in August 2019, despite airspace closures and ongoing Covid-19 disruption.] => 亚洲出口需求呈现疲软态势，而更多航空腹舱运力进入市场,再加上经济面临强劲逆风，预计第四季度航空货运旺季的需求量将明显低于2021和2020年同期水平。
通货膨胀严重影响发达经济体和消费者需求，国际货币基金组织、世界银行和很多分析师已经大幅下调了2022年和2023年的GDP增长预测。
DHL Global Forwarding亚太区首席执行官Kelvin Leung表示：“我们看到，欧洲对亚洲出口货物的需求量和出口新订单呈下行趋势，美国的需求和订单减少幅度更小一些，但也在下降。”
Leung指出，今年出现了明显的海空转换，表明相比过去两次由疫情带动的旺季，今年的旺季会更冷清些。
“但是港口和供应链的其他地方仍然存在许多瓶颈，随着节假日的临近，航空货运需求将回暖，也不会对全球物流造成太大冲击，”他补充说道。
运力增加
今年，全球运力一直在逐步回升，尤其是夏季中东以外的主要航线以及跨大西洋和亚洲内部航线释放了更多腹舱运力。
DHL的《7月航空货运行业状况报告》显示，7月份的总运力同比增长18%。8月份的报告指出，尽管遭受领空封锁和新冠疫情的持续影响,今年8月份的全球运力仅比2019年8月低11%。
[wysiwyg] => wysiwyg
[outbound_box] => outbound_box
[Caution should still be exercised in light of ongoing events that could jolt the supply chain once more. Softening exports out of Asia, more passenger aircraft bellyhold capacity entering the market, and strong economic headwinds are expected to produce a Q4 air cargo peak season which is significantly less vigorous than in 2021 and 2020.
Inflation is weighing heavily on advanced economies and consumer demand, with the International Monetary Fund, World Bank and most analysts heavily downgraded 2022 and 2023 GDP growth forecasts.
“We are seeing this playing out in demand from Europe, and to a lesser extent the U.S., for exports out of Asia as well as in less aggressive new orders,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.
Leung noted that there has been a significant air-to-ocean conversion this year, signalling a slightly more subdued peak season compared to the extremes from the last two pandemic-driven peaks.
“However, there are still so many bottlenecks at ports and elsewhere in supply chains that it would not take much of a jolt to global logistics flows for demand for air freight to get more forceful as we get closer to the holiday season,” he added.
Capacity additions
Global freight capacity has been gradually increasing through the year and has been buoyed this summer by additional bellyhold options on key routes out of the Middle East and on trans-Atlantic and intra-Asia lanes.
DHL’s July Airfreight State of the Industry report recorded that overall capacity in July was up 18 percent year-on-year. The August report notes that global capacity in August this year was just 11 percent lower than in August 2019, despite airspace closures and ongoing Covid-19 disruption.
RELATED ARTICLESAdopt cautious approach ahead of peak season despite brief respiteWhile air capacity saw some return with reduced demand from lockdowns, the approaching peak season and economic outlook spell further uncertainty.Demand reduction amidst capacity growth
On the flipside, there is a noticeable dip in demand, in part due to lowered consumer requirements with inflation in play.
The latest after-the-fact data for June from the International Air Transport Association (IATA), which was released at the start of August, revealed that global demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres, was 6.4 percent below June 2021 levels. Global demand for the first half-year was 4.3 percent below 2021 levels, while capacity was up 4.5 percent.
The Association of Asia Pacific Airlines (AAPA) reported in late August that air cargo markets had “weakened further” due to falling export orders alongside worsening business and consumer confidence levels. The AAPA noted that in July international air cargo demand, as measured in freight-tonne kilometres, dropped by 11.6 percent year-on-year.
Financial and analyst firm Nomura’s export leading indicator (NELI), a composite index made up of forward-looking indicators of Asian exports covering 10 economies – China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand – is now predicting a “deeper slump in Asian exports” than previous readings.
Nomura believes evidence of weakening export demand has “gathered momentum”, with Asia excluding-Japan export volume growth of 1.5 percent year-on-year in Q2 already much weaker than value growth of 13.8 percent.
NELI is now “pointing south until September”, noted a Nomura report, with Asia’s export growth “likely to slump from the mid-teens currently to low single-digits by year-end, and into negative territory early next year”.
Nomura expects the in the export growth downcycle to occur only around mid-2023. “This is consistent with our view that the initial slowdown phase reflects an inventory destocking cycle, and weak demand in China,” said the report. “But going forward, the weakness is likely to spread as final demand slows across the advanced economies. The downcycle is just starting.”
RELATED ARTICLESMultiple disruptions putting pressure on supply chainTrade is growing at a sluggish pace as cargo movers across international borders continue to fight fires.Cause for optimism for air import
Heading into the second half of 2022, there were also some positive signs. The Q3 report on the DHL Hong Kong Air Trade Leading Index (DTI), which measures the forward-looking business outlook of Hong Kong air traders, reported a recovery in the Overall Air Trade Index. It was a rise from 35.8 in Q2 to This was “mainly driven by a significant rebound in the Air Imports Index from 36 to 43.1 points, similar to the level prior to the fifth wave of the pandemic”.
An index value above 50 indicates an overall positive outlook while a reading below 50 represents an overall negative outlook for the surveyed quarter.
On the flip side, the Air (Re-)Exports Index recovered at a slower pace from 35.5 to 37.0 points with non-U.S. currency markets showing “an obvious improvement in imports, while Americas was the only market with a dip”.
A balancing act for the future
Bruce Chan, Director & Senior Analyst, Global Logistics & Future Mobility Equity Research at Stifel, noted in a report for the Baltic Exchange that the demand levels and freight rates witnessed during the pandemic had now most likely passed.
However, he argued that demand was moderating slowly, not collapsing, while supply was only gradually loosening. “Our view is that we have seen peak freight volumes, both broadly and on a global basis,” he explained.
“Absolute rates can still move higher. However, the gulf between current rates and those seen a year or two ago should continue to moderate. The process likely happens gradually given the amount of dislocation still present in global supply chains, which means that full normalisation of rates to historical levels probably will not happen until well into 2023,” added Chan.
Still, there is cause for optimism, despite the air of caution conveyed in recent economic forecasts. Leung adde: “Shippers are being more cautious about committing to air freight options which is entirely understandable given downbeat economic forecasts. But the market is still vibrant. Many key lanes have room for growth, especially as peak season looms.”
RELATED ARTICLESDHL Air Freight State of the Industry – August 2022Find out the latest developments of the global air freight market in this monthly analysis by DHL Global Forwarding.] =>
[] =>
[consumer-demand-less-vigorous-peak-season] => consumer-demand-less-vigorous-peak-season
[cautious-approach-peak-season-despite-brief-respite-key-image] => cautious-approach-peak-season-despite-brief-respite-key-image
[Adopt cautious approach ahead of peak season despite brief respite Meta] => Adopt cautious approach ahead of peak season despite brief respite Meta
[multiple-disruptions-putting-pressure-on-supply-chain-key-image] => multiple-disruptions-putting-pressure-on-supply-chain-key-image
[AFR-August-2022-key-image] => AFR-August-2022-key-image
[consumer-demand-less-vigorous-peak-season-single-column] => consumer-demand-less-vigorous-peak-season-single-column
[consumer-demand-less-vigorous-peak-season-key-image] => consumer-demand-less-vigorous-peak-season-key-image
)
[$value] =>
Demand reduction amidst capacity growth
On the flipside, there is a noticeable dip in demand, in part due to lowered consumer requirements with inflation in play.
The latest after-the-fact data for June from the International Air Transport Association (IATA), which was released at the start of August, revealed that global demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres, was 6.4 percent below June 2021 levels. Global demand for the first half-year was 4.3 percent below 2021 levels, while capacity was up 4.5 percent.
The Association of Asia Pacific Airlines (AAPA) reported in late August that air cargo markets had “weakened further” due to falling export orders alongside worsening business and consumer confidence levels. The AAPA noted that in July international air cargo demand, as measured in freight-tonne kilometres, dropped by 11.6 percent year-on-year.
Financial and analyst firm Nomura’s export leading indicator (NELI), a composite index made up of forward-looking indicators of Asian exports covering 10 economies - China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand - is now predicting a “deeper slump in Asian exports” than previous readings.
Nomura believes evidence of weakening export demand has “gathered momentum”, with Asia excluding-Japan export volume growth of 1.5 percent year-on-year in Q2 already much weaker than value growth of 13.8 percent.
NELI is now “pointing south until September”, noted a Nomura report, with Asia’s export growth “likely to slump from the mid-teens currently to low single-digits by year-end, and into negative territory early next year”.
Nomura expects the in the export growth downcycle to occur only around mid-2023. “This is consistent with our view that the initial slowdown phase reflects an inventory destocking cycle, and weak demand in China,” said the report. “But going forward, the weakness is likely to spread as final demand slows across the advanced economies. The downcycle is just starting.”
)
Array
(
[derick] => Array
(
[Caution should still be exercised in light of ongoing events that could jolt the supply chain once more.] => 警惕可能再次冲击供应链的事件。
[[]] =>
[Consumer demand likely less vigorous ahead of upcoming peak season] => 旺季来临前消费者需求可能不高
[Demand reduction amidst capacity growth
On the flipside, there is a noticeable dip in demand, in part due to lowered consumer requirements with inflation in play.
The latest after-the-fact data for June from the International Air Transport Association (IATA), which was released at the start of August, revealed that global demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres, was 6.4 percent below June 2021 levels. Global demand for the first half-year was 4.3 percent below 2021 levels, while capacity was up 4.5 percent.
The Association of Asia Pacific Airlines (AAPA) reported in late August that air cargo markets had “weakened further” due to falling export orders alongside worsening business and consumer confidence levels. The AAPA noted that in July international air cargo demand, as measured in freight-tonne kilometres, dropped by 11.6 percent year-on-year.
Financial and analyst firm Nomura’s export leading indicator (NELI), a composite index made up of forward-looking indicators of Asian exports covering 10 economies - China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand - is now predicting a “deeper slump in Asian exports” than previous readings.
Nomura believes evidence of weakening export demand has “gathered momentum”, with Asia excluding-Japan export volume growth of 1.5 percent year-on-year in Q2 already much weaker than value growth of 13.8 percent.
NELI is now “pointing south until September”, noted a Nomura report, with Asia’s export growth “likely to slump from the mid-teens currently to low single-digits by year-end, and into negative territory early next year”.
Nomura expects the in the export growth downcycle to occur only around mid-2023. “This is consistent with our view that the initial slowdown phase reflects an inventory destocking cycle, and weak demand in China,” said the report. “But going forward, the weakness is likely to spread as final demand slows across the advanced economies. The downcycle is just starting.”] =>
运力增长的同时需求减少
另一方面，航空需求明显下降，部分原因是消费者的需求下降和通货膨胀。
国际航空运输协会（IATA）于8月初发布的最新6月份航运数据显示，全球航运需求（按照货物吨公里计算）同比下降6.4%，今年上半年的全球航运需求同比下降4.3%，而运力却同比增长4.5%。
亚太航空公司协会（AAPA）8月下旬的报告指出，在商业信心水平下降和国际贸易量大幅下降的背景下，航空货运需求“继续疲弱”。AAPA指出，7月份国际航空货运（按照货物吨公里计算）需求同比下降11.6%。
金融和分析公司野村证券（NELI）的外贸出口先导指数是一个由亚洲出口前瞻性指标组成的综合指数，涵盖10个经济体，包括中国、香港、印度、印度尼西亚、韩国、马来西亚、菲律宾、新加坡、台湾和泰国，日前预测与之前相比，“亚洲出口需求严重下滑”。
野村证券认为，出口需求减弱的迹象已经“愈发明显”，除日本外的亚洲第二季度出口量同比增长1.5%，已经远远低于13.8%的价值增长。
野村证券的另一份报告指出，出口先导指数现在“直到9月都是指向南方”，亚洲的出口增长“到年底可能从目前的百分之十几左右下滑到百分之几，并在明年初进入负增长阶段”。
野村证券预计，出口增长约在2023年年中进入下降周期。“这与我们的观点一致，即最初的放缓阶段反映了库存正在减少，以及中国需求疲软，”报告称。“但展望未来，随着发达经济体的最终需求放缓，经济疲软态势可能会蔓延，开始进入下行周期。”
[Cause for optimism for air import
Heading into the second half of 2022, there were also some positive signs. The Q3 report on the DHL Hong Kong Air Trade Leading Index (DTI), which measures the forward-looking business outlook of Hong Kong air traders, reported a recovery in the Overall Air Trade Index. It was a rise from 35.8 in Q2 to This was “mainly driven by a significant rebound in the Air Imports Index from 36 to 43.1 points, similar to the level prior to the fifth wave of the pandemic”.
An index value above 50 indicates an overall positive outlook while a reading below 50 represents an overall negative outlook for the surveyed quarter.
On the flip side, the Air (Re-)Exports Index recovered at a slower pace from 35.5 to 37.0 points with non-U.S. currency markets showing “an obvious improvement in imports, while Americas was the only market with a dip”.
A balancing act for the future
Bruce Chan, Director & Senior Analyst, Global Logistics & Future Mobility Equity Research at Stifel, noted in a report for the Baltic Exchange that the demand levels and freight rates witnessed during the pandemic had now most likely passed.
However, he argued that demand was moderating slowly, not collapsing, while supply was only gradually loosening. “Our view is that we have seen peak freight volumes, both broadly and on a global basis,” he explained.
“Absolute rates can still move higher. However, the gulf between current rates and those seen a year or two ago should continue to moderate. The process likely happens gradually given the amount of dislocation still present in global supply chains, which means that full normalisation of rates to historical levels probably will not happen until well into 2023,” added Chan.
Still, there is cause for optimism, despite the air of caution conveyed in recent economic forecasts. Leung adde: “Shippers are being more cautious about committing to air freight options which is entirely understandable given downbeat economic forecasts. But the market is still vibrant. Many key lanes have room for growth, especially as peak season looms.”] =>
Stifel公司全球物流和未来出行股权研究部主管兼高级分析师Bruce Chan在提交给波罗的海交易所的一份报告中指出，新冠疫情期间的空运需求水平和运费现在很可能已经上涨。
然而，他认为需求正在逐步放缓，而不是衰退，而供应只是逐渐放松。“我们认为，全球货运量已普遍到达峰值，”他解释道。
“绝对费率很可能继续上升。但是当前费率与一两年前费率水平的差距应继续减小。考虑到全球供应链中仍存在大量混乱，这一过程可能会比较缓慢，这意味着到2023年费率才会回归到之前的正常水平，”Chan补充道。
尽管最近的经济预测都持较谨慎态度，但仍有理由保持乐观。Leung补充道：“由于经济预测低迷，托运人选择航空货运时会更加谨慎，这完全可以理解。但市场仍然充满活力。许多关键航线都有增长空间，尤其是在旺季临近之际。”
[Softening exports out of Asia, more passenger aircraft bellyhold capacity entering the market, and strong economic headwinds are expected to produce a Q4 air cargo peak season which is significantly less vigorous than in 2021 and 2020.
Inflation is weighing heavily on advanced economies and consumer demand, with the International Monetary Fund, World Bank and most analysts heavily downgraded 2022 and 2023 GDP growth forecasts.
“We are seeing this playing out in demand from Europe, and to a lesser extent the U.S., for exports out of Asia as well as in less aggressive new orders,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.
Leung noted that there has been a significant air-to-ocean conversion this year, signalling a slightly more subdued peak season compared to the extremes from the last two pandemic-driven peaks.
“However, there are still so many bottlenecks at ports and elsewhere in supply chains that it would not take much of a jolt to global logistics flows for demand for air freight to get more forceful as we get closer to the holiday season,” he added.
Capacity additions
Global freight capacity has been gradually increasing through the year and has been buoyed this summer by additional bellyhold options on key routes out of the Middle East and on trans-Atlantic and intra-Asia lanes.
DHL’s July Airfreight State of the Industry report recorded that overall capacity in July was up 18 percent year-on-year. The August report notes that global capacity in August this year was just 11 percent lower than in August 2019, despite airspace closures and ongoing Covid-19 disruption.] => 亚洲出口需求呈现疲软态势，而更多航空腹舱运力进入市场,再加上经济面临强劲逆风，预计第四季度航空货运旺季的需求量将明显低于2021和2020年同期水平。
通货膨胀严重影响发达经济体和消费者需求，国际货币基金组织、世界银行和很多分析师已经大幅下调了2022年和2023年的GDP增长预测。
DHL Global Forwarding亚太区首席执行官Kelvin Leung表示：“我们看到，欧洲对亚洲出口货物的需求量和出口新订单呈下行趋势，美国的需求和订单减少幅度更小一些，但也在下降。”
Leung指出，今年出现了明显的海空转换，表明相比过去两次由疫情带动的旺季，今年的旺季会更冷清些。
“但是港口和供应链的其他地方仍然存在许多瓶颈，随着节假日的临近，航空货运需求将回暖，也不会对全球物流造成太大冲击，”他补充说道。
运力增加
今年，全球运力一直在逐步回升，尤其是夏季中东以外的主要航线以及跨大西洋和亚洲内部航线释放了更多腹舱运力。
DHL的《7月航空货运行业状况报告》显示，7月份的总运力同比增长18%。8月份的报告指出，尽管遭受领空封锁和新冠疫情的持续影响,今年8月份的全球运力仅比2019年8月低11%。
[wysiwyg] => wysiwyg
[outbound_box] => outbound_box
[Caution should still be exercised in light of ongoing events that could jolt the supply chain once more. Softening exports out of Asia, more passenger aircraft bellyhold capacity entering the market, and strong economic headwinds are expected to produce a Q4 air cargo peak season which is significantly less vigorous than in 2021 and 2020.
Inflation is weighing heavily on advanced economies and consumer demand, with the International Monetary Fund, World Bank and most analysts heavily downgraded 2022 and 2023 GDP growth forecasts.
“We are seeing this playing out in demand from Europe, and to a lesser extent the U.S., for exports out of Asia as well as in less aggressive new orders,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.
Leung noted that there has been a significant air-to-ocean conversion this year, signalling a slightly more subdued peak season compared to the extremes from the last two pandemic-driven peaks.
“However, there are still so many bottlenecks at ports and elsewhere in supply chains that it would not take much of a jolt to global logistics flows for demand for air freight to get more forceful as we get closer to the holiday season,” he added.
Capacity additions
Global freight capacity has been gradually increasing through the year and has been buoyed this summer by additional bellyhold options on key routes out of the Middle East and on trans-Atlantic and intra-Asia lanes.
DHL’s July Airfreight State of the Industry report recorded that overall capacity in July was up 18 percent year-on-year. The August report notes that global capacity in August this year was just 11 percent lower than in August 2019, despite airspace closures and ongoing Covid-19 disruption.
RELATED ARTICLESAdopt cautious approach ahead of peak season despite brief respiteWhile air capacity saw some return with reduced demand from lockdowns, the approaching peak season and economic outlook spell further uncertainty.Demand reduction amidst capacity growth
On the flipside, there is a noticeable dip in demand, in part due to lowered consumer requirements with inflation in play.
The latest after-the-fact data for June from the International Air Transport Association (IATA), which was released at the start of August, revealed that global demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres, was 6.4 percent below June 2021 levels. Global demand for the first half-year was 4.3 percent below 2021 levels, while capacity was up 4.5 percent.
The Association of Asia Pacific Airlines (AAPA) reported in late August that air cargo markets had “weakened further” due to falling export orders alongside worsening business and consumer confidence levels. The AAPA noted that in July international air cargo demand, as measured in freight-tonne kilometres, dropped by 11.6 percent year-on-year.
Financial and analyst firm Nomura’s export leading indicator (NELI), a composite index made up of forward-looking indicators of Asian exports covering 10 economies – China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand – is now predicting a “deeper slump in Asian exports” than previous readings.
Nomura believes evidence of weakening export demand has “gathered momentum”, with Asia excluding-Japan export volume growth of 1.5 percent year-on-year in Q2 already much weaker than value growth of 13.8 percent.
NELI is now “pointing south until September”, noted a Nomura report, with Asia’s export growth “likely to slump from the mid-teens currently to low single-digits by year-end, and into negative territory early next year”.
Nomura expects the in the export growth downcycle to occur only around mid-2023. “This is consistent with our view that the initial slowdown phase reflects an inventory destocking cycle, and weak demand in China,” said the report. “But going forward, the weakness is likely to spread as final demand slows across the advanced economies. The downcycle is just starting.”
RELATED ARTICLESMultiple disruptions putting pressure on supply chainTrade is growing at a sluggish pace as cargo movers across international borders continue to fight fires.Cause for optimism for air import
Heading into the second half of 2022, there were also some positive signs. The Q3 report on the DHL Hong Kong Air Trade Leading Index (DTI), which measures the forward-looking business outlook of Hong Kong air traders, reported a recovery in the Overall Air Trade Index. It was a rise from 35.8 in Q2 to This was “mainly driven by a significant rebound in the Air Imports Index from 36 to 43.1 points, similar to the level prior to the fifth wave of the pandemic”.
An index value above 50 indicates an overall positive outlook while a reading below 50 represents an overall negative outlook for the surveyed quarter.
On the flip side, the Air (Re-)Exports Index recovered at a slower pace from 35.5 to 37.0 points with non-U.S. currency markets showing “an obvious improvement in imports, while Americas was the only market with a dip”.
A balancing act for the future
Bruce Chan, Director & Senior Analyst, Global Logistics & Future Mobility Equity Research at Stifel, noted in a report for the Baltic Exchange that the demand levels and freight rates witnessed during the pandemic had now most likely passed.
However, he argued that demand was moderating slowly, not collapsing, while supply was only gradually loosening. “Our view is that we have seen peak freight volumes, both broadly and on a global basis,” he explained.
“Absolute rates can still move higher. However, the gulf between current rates and those seen a year or two ago should continue to moderate. The process likely happens gradually given the amount of dislocation still present in global supply chains, which means that full normalisation of rates to historical levels probably will not happen until well into 2023,” added Chan.
Still, there is cause for optimism, despite the air of caution conveyed in recent economic forecasts. Leung adde: “Shippers are being more cautious about committing to air freight options which is entirely understandable given downbeat economic forecasts. But the market is still vibrant. Many key lanes have room for growth, especially as peak season looms.”
RELATED ARTICLESDHL Air Freight State of the Industry – August 2022Find out the latest developments of the global air freight market in this monthly analysis by DHL Global Forwarding.] =>
[] =>
[consumer-demand-less-vigorous-peak-season] => consumer-demand-less-vigorous-peak-season
[cautious-approach-peak-season-despite-brief-respite-key-image] => cautious-approach-peak-season-despite-brief-respite-key-image
[Adopt cautious approach ahead of peak season despite brief respite Meta] => Adopt cautious approach ahead of peak season despite brief respite Meta
[multiple-disruptions-putting-pressure-on-supply-chain-key-image] => multiple-disruptions-putting-pressure-on-supply-chain-key-image
[AFR-August-2022-key-image] => AFR-August-2022-key-image
[consumer-demand-less-vigorous-peak-season-single-column] => consumer-demand-less-vigorous-peak-season-single-column
[consumer-demand-less-vigorous-peak-season-key-image] => consumer-demand-less-vigorous-peak-season-key-image
)
[$value] =>
Cause for optimism for air import
Heading into the second half of 2022, there were also some positive signs. The Q3 report on the DHL Hong Kong Air Trade Leading Index (DTI), which measures the forward-looking business outlook of Hong Kong air traders, reported a recovery in the Overall Air Trade Index. It was a rise from 35.8 in Q2 to This was “mainly driven by a significant rebound in the Air Imports Index from 36 to 43.1 points, similar to the level prior to the fifth wave of the pandemic”.
An index value above 50 indicates an overall positive outlook while a reading below 50 represents an overall negative outlook for the surveyed quarter.
On the flip side, the Air (Re-)Exports Index recovered at a slower pace from 35.5 to 37.0 points with non-U.S. currency markets showing “an obvious improvement in imports, while Americas was the only market with a dip”.
A balancing act for the future
Bruce Chan, Director & Senior Analyst, Global Logistics & Future Mobility Equity Research at Stifel, noted in a report for the Baltic Exchange that the demand levels and freight rates witnessed during the pandemic had now most likely passed.
However, he argued that demand was moderating slowly, not collapsing, while supply was only gradually loosening. “Our view is that we have seen peak freight volumes, both broadly and on a global basis,” he explained.
“Absolute rates can still move higher. However, the gulf between current rates and those seen a year or two ago should continue to moderate. The process likely happens gradually given the amount of dislocation still present in global supply chains, which means that full normalisation of rates to historical levels probably will not happen until well into 2023,” added Chan.
Still, there is cause for optimism, despite the air of caution conveyed in recent economic forecasts. Leung adde: “Shippers are being more cautious about committing to air freight options which is entirely understandable given downbeat economic forecasts. But the market is still vibrant. Many key lanes have room for growth, especially as peak season looms.”
)
Array
(
[Caution should still be exercised in light of ongoing events that could jolt the supply chain once more.] => 警惕可能再次冲击供应链的事件。
[[]] =>
[Consumer demand likely less vigorous ahead of upcoming peak season] => 旺季来临前消费者需求可能不高
[Demand reduction amidst capacity growth
On the flipside, there is a noticeable dip in demand, in part due to lowered consumer requirements with inflation in play.
The latest after-the-fact data for June from the International Air Transport Association (IATA), which was released at the start of August, revealed that global demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres, was 6.4 percent below June 2021 levels. Global demand for the first half-year was 4.3 percent below 2021 levels, while capacity was up 4.5 percent.
The Association of Asia Pacific Airlines (AAPA) reported in late August that air cargo markets had “weakened further” due to falling export orders alongside worsening business and consumer confidence levels. The AAPA noted that in July international air cargo demand, as measured in freight-tonne kilometres, dropped by 11.6 percent year-on-year.
Financial and analyst firm Nomura’s export leading indicator (NELI), a composite index made up of forward-looking indicators of Asian exports covering 10 economies - China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand - is now predicting a “deeper slump in Asian exports” than previous readings.
Nomura believes evidence of weakening export demand has “gathered momentum”, with Asia excluding-Japan export volume growth of 1.5 percent year-on-year in Q2 already much weaker than value growth of 13.8 percent.
NELI is now “pointing south until September”, noted a Nomura report, with Asia’s export growth “likely to slump from the mid-teens currently to low single-digits by year-end, and into negative territory early next year”.
Nomura expects the in the export growth downcycle to occur only around mid-2023. “This is consistent with our view that the initial slowdown phase reflects an inventory destocking cycle, and weak demand in China,” said the report. “But going forward, the weakness is likely to spread as final demand slows across the advanced economies. The downcycle is just starting.”] =>
运力增长的同时需求减少
另一方面，航空需求明显下降，部分原因是消费者的需求下降和通货膨胀。
国际航空运输协会（IATA）于8月初发布的最新6月份航运数据显示，全球航运需求（按照货物吨公里计算）同比下降6.4%，今年上半年的全球航运需求同比下降4.3%，而运力却同比增长4.5%。
亚太航空公司协会（AAPA）8月下旬的报告指出，在商业信心水平下降和国际贸易量大幅下降的背景下，航空货运需求“继续疲弱”。AAPA指出，7月份国际航空货运（按照货物吨公里计算）需求同比下降11.6%。
金融和分析公司野村证券（NELI）的外贸出口先导指数是一个由亚洲出口前瞻性指标组成的综合指数，涵盖10个经济体，包括中国、香港、印度、印度尼西亚、韩国、马来西亚、菲律宾、新加坡、台湾和泰国，日前预测与之前相比，“亚洲出口需求严重下滑”。
野村证券认为，出口需求减弱的迹象已经“愈发明显”，除日本外的亚洲第二季度出口量同比增长1.5%，已经远远低于13.8%的价值增长。
野村证券的另一份报告指出，出口先导指数现在“直到9月都是指向南方”，亚洲的出口增长“到年底可能从目前的百分之十几左右下滑到百分之几，并在明年初进入负增长阶段”。
野村证券预计，出口增长约在2023年年中进入下降周期。“这与我们的观点一致，即最初的放缓阶段反映了库存正在减少，以及中国需求疲软，”报告称。“但展望未来，随着发达经济体的最终需求放缓，经济疲软态势可能会蔓延，开始进入下行周期。”
[Cause for optimism for air import
Heading into the second half of 2022, there were also some positive signs. The Q3 report on the DHL Hong Kong Air Trade Leading Index (DTI), which measures the forward-looking business outlook of Hong Kong air traders, reported a recovery in the Overall Air Trade Index. It was a rise from 35.8 in Q2 to This was “mainly driven by a significant rebound in the Air Imports Index from 36 to 43.1 points, similar to the level prior to the fifth wave of the pandemic”.
An index value above 50 indicates an overall positive outlook while a reading below 50 represents an overall negative outlook for the surveyed quarter.
On the flip side, the Air (Re-)Exports Index recovered at a slower pace from 35.5 to 37.0 points with non-U.S. currency markets showing “an obvious improvement in imports, while Americas was the only market with a dip”.
A balancing act for the future
Bruce Chan, Director & Senior Analyst, Global Logistics & Future Mobility Equity Research at Stifel, noted in a report for the Baltic Exchange that the demand levels and freight rates witnessed during the pandemic had now most likely passed.
However, he argued that demand was moderating slowly, not collapsing, while supply was only gradually loosening. “Our view is that we have seen peak freight volumes, both broadly and on a global basis,” he explained.
“Absolute rates can still move higher. However, the gulf between current rates and those seen a year or two ago should continue to moderate. The process likely happens gradually given the amount of dislocation still present in global supply chains, which means that full normalisation of rates to historical levels probably will not happen until well into 2023,” added Chan.
Still, there is cause for optimism, despite the air of caution conveyed in recent economic forecasts. Leung adde: “Shippers are being more cautious about committing to air freight options which is entirely understandable given downbeat economic forecasts. But the market is still vibrant. Many key lanes have room for growth, especially as peak season looms.”] =>
Stifel公司全球物流和未来出行股权研究部主管兼高级分析师Bruce Chan在提交给波罗的海交易所的一份报告中指出，新冠疫情期间的空运需求水平和运费现在很可能已经上涨。
然而，他认为需求正在逐步放缓，而不是衰退，而供应只是逐渐放松。“我们认为，全球货运量已普遍到达峰值，”他解释道。
“绝对费率很可能继续上升。但是当前费率与一两年前费率水平的差距应继续减小。考虑到全球供应链中仍存在大量混乱，这一过程可能会比较缓慢，这意味着到2023年费率才会回归到之前的正常水平，”Chan补充道。
尽管最近的经济预测都持较谨慎态度，但仍有理由保持乐观。Leung补充道：“由于经济预测低迷，托运人选择航空货运时会更加谨慎，这完全可以理解。但市场仍然充满活力。许多关键航线都有增长空间，尤其是在旺季临近之际。”
[Softening exports out of Asia, more passenger aircraft bellyhold capacity entering the market, and strong economic headwinds are expected to produce a Q4 air cargo peak season which is significantly less vigorous than in 2021 and 2020.
Inflation is weighing heavily on advanced economies and consumer demand, with the International Monetary Fund, World Bank and most analysts heavily downgraded 2022 and 2023 GDP growth forecasts.
“We are seeing this playing out in demand from Europe, and to a lesser extent the U.S., for exports out of Asia as well as in less aggressive new orders,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.
Leung noted that there has been a significant air-to-ocean conversion this year, signalling a slightly more subdued peak season compared to the extremes from the last two pandemic-driven peaks.
“However, there are still so many bottlenecks at ports and elsewhere in supply chains that it would not take much of a jolt to global logistics flows for demand for air freight to get more forceful as we get closer to the holiday season,” he added.
Capacity additions
Global freight capacity has been gradually increasing through the year and has been buoyed this summer by additional bellyhold options on key routes out of the Middle East and on trans-Atlantic and intra-Asia lanes.
DHL’s July Airfreight State of the Industry report recorded that overall capacity in July was up 18 percent year-on-year. The August report notes that global capacity in August this year was just 11 percent lower than in August 2019, despite airspace closures and ongoing Covid-19 disruption.] => 亚洲出口需求呈现疲软态势，而更多航空腹舱运力进入市场,再加上经济面临强劲逆风，预计第四季度航空货运旺季的需求量将明显低于2021和2020年同期水平。
通货膨胀严重影响发达经济体和消费者需求，国际货币基金组织、世界银行和很多分析师已经大幅下调了2022年和2023年的GDP增长预测。
DHL Global Forwarding亚太区首席执行官Kelvin Leung表示：“我们看到，欧洲对亚洲出口货物的需求量和出口新订单呈下行趋势，美国的需求和订单减少幅度更小一些，但也在下降。”
Leung指出，今年出现了明显的海空转换，表明相比过去两次由疫情带动的旺季，今年的旺季会更冷清些。
“但是港口和供应链的其他地方仍然存在许多瓶颈，随着节假日的临近，航空货运需求将回暖，也不会对全球物流造成太大冲击，”他补充说道。
运力增加
今年，全球运力一直在逐步回升，尤其是夏季中东以外的主要航线以及跨大西洋和亚洲内部航线释放了更多腹舱运力。
DHL的《7月航空货运行业状况报告》显示，7月份的总运力同比增长18%。8月份的报告指出，尽管遭受领空封锁和新冠疫情的持续影响,今年8月份的全球运力仅比2019年8月低11%。
[wysiwyg] => wysiwyg
[outbound_box] => outbound_box
[Caution should still be exercised in light of ongoing events that could jolt the supply chain once more. Softening exports out of Asia, more passenger aircraft bellyhold capacity entering the market, and strong economic headwinds are expected to produce a Q4 air cargo peak season which is significantly less vigorous than in 2021 and 2020.
Inflation is weighing heavily on advanced economies and consumer demand, with the International Monetary Fund, World Bank and most analysts heavily downgraded 2022 and 2023 GDP growth forecasts.
“We are seeing this playing out in demand from Europe, and to a lesser extent the U.S., for exports out of Asia as well as in less aggressive new orders,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.
Leung noted that there has been a significant air-to-ocean conversion this year, signalling a slightly more subdued peak season compared to the extremes from the last two pandemic-driven peaks.
“However, there are still so many bottlenecks at ports and elsewhere in supply chains that it would not take much of a jolt to global logistics flows for demand for air freight to get more forceful as we get closer to the holiday season,” he added.
Capacity additions
Global freight capacity has been gradually increasing through the year and has been buoyed this summer by additional bellyhold options on key routes out of the Middle East and on trans-Atlantic and intra-Asia lanes.
DHL’s July Airfreight State of the Industry report recorded that overall capacity in July was up 18 percent year-on-year. The August report notes that global capacity in August this year was just 11 percent lower than in August 2019, despite airspace closures and ongoing Covid-19 disruption.
RELATED ARTICLESAdopt cautious approach ahead of peak season despite brief respiteWhile air capacity saw some return with reduced demand from lockdowns, the approaching peak season and economic outlook spell further uncertainty.Demand reduction amidst capacity growth
On the flipside, there is a noticeable dip in demand, in part due to lowered consumer requirements with inflation in play.
The latest after-the-fact data for June from the International Air Transport Association (IATA), which was released at the start of August, revealed that global demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres, was 6.4 percent below June 2021 levels. Global demand for the first half-year was 4.3 percent below 2021 levels, while capacity was up 4.5 percent.
The Association of Asia Pacific Airlines (AAPA) reported in late August that air cargo markets had “weakened further” due to falling export orders alongside worsening business and consumer confidence levels. The AAPA noted that in July international air cargo demand, as measured in freight-tonne kilometres, dropped by 11.6 percent year-on-year.
Financial and analyst firm Nomura’s export leading indicator (NELI), a composite index made up of forward-looking indicators of Asian exports covering 10 economies – China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand – is now predicting a “deeper slump in Asian exports” than previous readings.
Nomura believes evidence of weakening export demand has “gathered momentum”, with Asia excluding-Japan export volume growth of 1.5 percent year-on-year in Q2 already much weaker than value growth of 13.8 percent.
NELI is now “pointing south until September”, noted a Nomura report, with Asia’s export growth “likely to slump from the mid-teens currently to low single-digits by year-end, and into negative territory early next year”.
Nomura expects the in the export growth downcycle to occur only around mid-2023. “This is consistent with our view that the initial slowdown phase reflects an inventory destocking cycle, and weak demand in China,” said the report. “But going forward, the weakness is likely to spread as final demand slows across the advanced economies. The downcycle is just starting.”
RELATED ARTICLESMultiple disruptions putting pressure on supply chainTrade is growing at a sluggish pace as cargo movers across international borders continue to fight fires.Cause for optimism for air import
Heading into the second half of 2022, there were also some positive signs. The Q3 report on the DHL Hong Kong Air Trade Leading Index (DTI), which measures the forward-looking business outlook of Hong Kong air traders, reported a recovery in the Overall Air Trade Index. It was a rise from 35.8 in Q2 to This was “mainly driven by a significant rebound in the Air Imports Index from 36 to 43.1 points, similar to the level prior to the fifth wave of the pandemic”.
An index value above 50 indicates an overall positive outlook while a reading below 50 represents an overall negative outlook for the surveyed quarter.
On the flip side, the Air (Re-)Exports Index recovered at a slower pace from 35.5 to 37.0 points with non-U.S. currency markets showing “an obvious improvement in imports, while Americas was the only market with a dip”.
A balancing act for the future
Bruce Chan, Director & Senior Analyst, Global Logistics & Future Mobility Equity Research at Stifel, noted in a report for the Baltic Exchange that the demand levels and freight rates witnessed during the pandemic had now most likely passed.
However, he argued that demand was moderating slowly, not collapsing, while supply was only gradually loosening. “Our view is that we have seen peak freight volumes, both broadly and on a global basis,” he explained.
“Absolute rates can still move higher. However, the gulf between current rates and those seen a year or two ago should continue to moderate. The process likely happens gradually given the amount of dislocation still present in global supply chains, which means that full normalisation of rates to historical levels probably will not happen until well into 2023,” added Chan.
Still, there is cause for optimism, despite the air of caution conveyed in recent economic forecasts. Leung adde: “Shippers are being more cautious about committing to air freight options which is entirely understandable given downbeat economic forecasts. But the market is still vibrant. Many key lanes have room for growth, especially as peak season looms.”
RELATED ARTICLESDHL Air Freight State of the Industry – August 2022Find out the latest developments of the global air freight market in this monthly analysis by DHL Global Forwarding.] =>
简体中文