Array
(
[derick] => Array
(
[Trade is growing at a sluggish pace as cargo movers across international borders continue to fight fires.] => 跨国航运公司忙着“救火”，贸易增长速度缓慢。
[[]] =>
[Multiple disruptions putting pressure on supply chain] => 供应链连连中断，压力攀升
[Trade is still growing, albeit at a more sluggish pace, as those in the business of moving cargo across international borders continue to fight fires old and new.] => 旧火未灭，新火又起，跨国航运公司忙着“救火”，无暇他顾，贸易虽有增长，但是速度较慢。
[China exports slowed by ongoing pandemic restrictions
In China, factory activity unexpectedly shrank in July as ongoing Covid-19 outbreaks impacted operations. The official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to 49.0 in July, from 50.2 in June, with new orders and output both registering declines, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics. In part, this is because fresh Covid-19 lockdowns in key production regions around Shenzhen in the south and Tianjin in the north have disrupted manufacturing.
Global shipping has also suffered disruptions in recent weeks as China has conducted live-fire military exercises in the Taiwan Strait.
Improved U.S. port situations, but congestion remains
Congestion at U.S. West Coast ports, particularly the Los Angeles and Long Beach facilities which act as the main gateway to North America, has improved through 2022.
Even so, overall U.S. port congestion is not seeing much improvement from the start of the year as congestion has instead shifted to the Gulf and East coast ports. Over 150 ships were waiting off U.S. ports in late July with Savannah, Georgia, New York, New Jersey and Houston among the worst performers. The congestion is the result of record high imports to the U.S. East Coast this year as shippers have sought to avoid delays on the West Coast.
Carrier schedule reliability has plummeted as a result. In June schedule reliability on East Coast services was just 18.7 percent, while vessels arriving late suffered an average delay of nine days, according to Sea-Intelligence.] =>
进入2022年，美国西海岸港口的拥堵状况已经得到明显缓解，尤其是拥堵情况曾经最为严重的两个北美主要门户：洛杉矶港和长滩港。
即便如此，美国港口的整体拥堵情况与年初相比并没有太大改善，因为拥堵的压力已转移到墨西哥湾和东海岸的港口。7月下旬，在美国各港口等待的船只数量超过150艘，其中等待的船只数量最多的港口分别是佐治亚州萨凡纳港、纽约-新泽西港、休斯顿港。由于大多数发货人为了避免货物在西海岸港口遭到拖延，纷纷改变原来的运输方案，导致今年美东港口的进口量创历史新高，造成了严重的拥堵问题。
航运公司的船期可靠性急剧下滑。根据Sea-Intelligence的数据，6月份东海岸服务的船期可靠性仅为18.7%，而迟到船舶的平均延误时间为9天。
[Economic deterioration
Rising prices of many products alongside slowing economic growth are, of course, dampening economic forecasts. In July, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgraded its outlook, forecasting global GDP growth of 3.2 percent this year, a cut of 0.4 percentage points from its April forecast.
The forecast for annual global growth in 2023 was also revised, down 0.7 percentage points to just 2.9 percent.
In terms of freight demand, IMF forecasts for advanced countries – the biggest buyers of many containerised products – were cut even more aggressively. The U.S. economy is now forecast by the IMF to grow 2.3 percent this year (versus a forecast of 3.7 percent in April) and just one percent in 2023 (down from 2.3 percent).
Europe’s biggest economy, Germany, saw a huge 1.9 percentage point downgrade to its GDP growth forecast for 2023 when 0.8 percent growth is now expected. Overall, Europe saw 1.1 percentage point cut to its growth forecast for 2023 when GDP is expected to expand by 1.2 percent.
All of which translates into global trade in goods and services expanding 4.1 percent this year, down 0.9 percentage points from the IMF’s April trade forecast.
Box rates stumble
With macroeconomic headwinds strong and recessions now being forecast for many leading trading economies, it is perhaps unsurprising that container spot freight rates have been falling consistently in recent weeks on headhaul routes out of China. However, although freight rates have fallen a long way this year, this is no precipitous plunge. Freight rates on many lanes are still three to four times higher than pre-pandemic levels.
Even so, carriers have started blanking more sailings in a bid to stop further freight rate slides.
Dominique von Orelli, Global Head, Ocean Freight, DHL Global Forwarding, said much now depends on how quickly central banks can control inflation and limit any major economic contractions.
“It’s clear that carriers will continue to void sailings to maintain the container slot supply-demand balance on key lanes out of Asia to Europe and the US, and also on other trade lanes,” he added. “This means container markets will likely remain relatively tight even if the negative economic forecasts are proven correct. We’re planning for all eventualities and urging customers to do likewise.”] =>
由于宏观经济遭遇强劲逆风，许多主要贸易经济体预计将出现经济衰退，因此最近几周中国出口往程航线上的集装箱即期运费持续下跌。不过，虽然今年运费连续回落，但是价格依然高企。许多航线上的运费仍比疫情前的水平高出三到四倍。
虽然价格利好仍然存在，为阻止“跌跌不休”的运费，各运输企业已经开始取消许多船运航班。
DHL Global Forwarding海运业务全球负责人Dominique von Orelli表示，各国央行控制通货膨胀和限制任何重大经济萎缩的速度，在很大程度上会影响海运价格的波动。
“显然，为了维持亚洲到欧美的主要航线以及其他贸易航线的集装箱舱位供需平衡，运输企业会继续取消船运航班。”他还补充道，“也就是说，即使经济的发展如预期的那般不乐观，集装箱市场仍可能相对紧张。目前，我们正在为所有可能发生的事情做准备，同时敦促我们的客户做好同样的准备。”
[Economists and analysts have now largely converged on the fact that the global economy is slowing down. Equally, most agree that some countries will almost certainly turn recessionary in the coming quarters.
Ocean container markets are not quite as taut as they have been for the last two years under Covid-19. But the northern hemisphere summer is still proving challenging for ocean shipping stakeholders as a slew of new and re-occurring supply chain disruptions blight the best laid plans.
“Forwarders are used to managing crises and finding solutions to ensure customers’ businesses run smoothly,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific. “Covid-19 has seen those challenges increase and this summer has seen no let-up."
“There are concerning economic signs, but we are still seeing green shoots that the freight pipeline remains healthy, even though volumes might be levelling off from Covid-19 peaks and returning to more historically normal levels,” added Leung.
Summer sun turning up the heat in Europe supply chain
Across Europe, sizzling temperatures throughout summer have left the continent’s rivers dangerously low. The Danube River, Europe’s longest, was barely navigable for barge traffic by mid-August. At the same juncture, the Rhine, a key industrial artery, was all but closed to freight at some sections as water levels fell to historic lows.
European ports have also been hit by strike action. Negotiations between unions and ports operators in Germany are ongoing while in the UK workers at the ports of Liverpool and Felixstowe have announced strikes in August.
The lack of barge shipping options is piling more pressure on already stretched European rail and road networks.] => 目前，经济学家和分析师基本同意，全球经济正在放缓。同样地，其中大部分人预计，未来几个季度内，一些国家的经济几乎肯定会陷入衰退。
过去两年，受新冠疫情的影响，海运集装箱市场运力失衡，而今年港口运转逐渐恢复常态。不过事实证明，对于海运利益相关者而言，今年夏季的北半球海运仍充满了挑战，无论他们的计划做得多么周密详细，各种新的、重复发生的供应链中断问题都会把他们的计划打乱。
“为保证客户业务平稳运行，货运代理商习惯于进行危机管理，寻求各种解决方案。”DHL Global Forwarding亚太区首席执行官Kelvin Leung表示，“新冠疫情带来了更多的挑战，今年夏天也不例外。”
Leung还补充道：“虽然目前的经济迹象不容乐观，但是我们仍能在货运渠道捕捉到一些好的迹象，即使货运量可能会从新冠疫情时期的峰值回落到平稳状态，再进一步恢复到历史正常水平。”
欧洲供应链受炎炎夏日“烤”验
今年夏天，热浪肆虐，欧洲大陆主要河流干涸，水位大幅下降。到8月中旬，在欧洲最长的河流——多瑙河上，驳船几乎无法通航。与此同时，由于水位降至历史低位，重要的工业大动脉——莱茵河的某些河段也几乎无法输送货物。
欧洲各港口也发生了罢工事件。德国工会和德国港口运营商之间仍在谈判，而英国利物浦和费利克斯托港口的工人也宣布将在8月举行大规模罢工。
对于本已捉襟见肘的欧洲铁路和公路网而言，驳船无法通行无异于雪上加霜。
[wysiwyg] => wysiwyg
[outbound_box] => outbound_box
[Trade is still growing, albeit at a more sluggish pace, as those in the business of moving cargo across international borders continue to fight fires old and new. Economists and analysts have now largely converged on the fact that the global economy is slowing down. Equally, most agree that some countries will almost certainly turn recessionary in the coming quarters.
Ocean container markets are not quite as taut as they have been for the last two years under Covid-19. But the northern hemisphere summer is still proving challenging for ocean shipping stakeholders as a slew of new and re-occurring supply chain disruptions blight the best laid plans.
“Forwarders are used to managing crises and finding solutions to ensure customers’ businesses run smoothly,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific. “Covid-19 has seen those challenges increase and this summer has seen no let-up.”
“There are concerning economic signs, but we are still seeing green shoots that the freight pipeline remains healthy, even though volumes might be levelling off from Covid-19 peaks and returning to more historically normal levels,” added Leung.
Summer sun turning up the heat in Europe supply chain
Across Europe, sizzling temperatures throughout summer have left the continent’s rivers dangerously low. The Danube River, Europe’s longest, was barely navigable for barge traffic by mid-August. At the same juncture, the Rhine, a key industrial artery, was all but closed to freight at some sections as water levels fell to historic lows.
European ports have also been hit by strike action. Negotiations between unions and ports operators in Germany are ongoing while in the UK workers at the ports of Liverpool and Felixstowe have announced strikes in August.
The lack of barge shipping options is piling more pressure on already stretched European rail and road networks.
RELATED ARTICLESPotential economic headwinds add stress to supply chainDespite softened rates from a Q2 slowdown, uncertainties loom heavily.China exports slowed by ongoing pandemic restrictions
In China, factory activity unexpectedly shrank in July as ongoing Covid-19 outbreaks impacted operations. The official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to 49.0 in July, from 50.2 in June, with new orders and output both registering declines, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics. In part, this is because fresh Covid-19 lockdowns in key production regions around Shenzhen in the south and Tianjin in the north have disrupted manufacturing.
Global shipping has also suffered disruptions in recent weeks as China has conducted live-fire military exercises in the Taiwan Strait.
Improved U.S. port situations, but congestion remains
Congestion at U.S. West Coast ports, particularly the Los Angeles and Long Beach facilities which act as the main gateway to North America, has improved through 2022.
Even so, overall U.S. port congestion is not seeing much improvement from the start of the year as congestion has instead shifted to the Gulf and East coast ports. Over 150 ships were waiting off U.S. ports in late July with Savannah, Georgia, New York, New Jersey and Houston among the worst performers. The congestion is the result of record high imports to the U.S. East Coast this year as shippers have sought to avoid delays on the West Coast.
Carrier schedule reliability has plummeted as a result. In June schedule reliability on East Coast services was just 18.7 percent, while vessels arriving late suffered an average delay of nine days, according to Sea-Intelligence.
RELATED ARTICLESAdopt cautious approach ahead of peak season despite brief respiteWhile air capacity saw some return with reduced demand from lockdowns, the approaching peak season and economic outlook spell further uncertainty.Economic deterioration
Rising prices of many products alongside slowing economic growth are, of course, dampening economic forecasts. In July, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgraded its outlook, forecasting global GDP growth of 3.2 percent this year, a cut of 0.4 percentage points from its April forecast.
The forecast for annual global growth in 2023 was also revised, down 0.7 percentage points to just 2.9 percent.
In terms of freight demand, IMF forecasts for advanced countries – the biggest buyers of many containerised products – were cut even more aggressively. The U.S. economy is now forecast by the IMF to grow 2.3 percent this year (versus a forecast of 3.7 percent in April) and just one percent in 2023 (down from 2.3 percent).
Europe’s biggest economy, Germany, saw a huge 1.9 percentage point downgrade to its GDP growth forecast for 2023 when 0.8 percent growth is now expected. Overall, Europe saw 1.1 percentage point cut to its growth forecast for 2023 when GDP is expected to expand by 1.2 percent.
All of which translates into global trade in goods and services expanding 4.1 percent this year, down 0.9 percentage points from the IMF’s April trade forecast.
Box rates stumble
With macroeconomic headwinds strong and recessions now being forecast for many leading trading economies, it is perhaps unsurprising that container spot freight rates have been falling consistently in recent weeks on headhaul routes out of China. However, although freight rates have fallen a long way this year, this is no precipitous plunge. Freight rates on many lanes are still three to four times higher than pre-pandemic levels.
Even so, carriers have started blanking more sailings in a bid to stop further freight rate slides.
Dominique von Orelli, Global Head, Ocean Freight, DHL Global Forwarding, said much now depends on how quickly central banks can control inflation and limit any major economic contractions.
“It’s clear that carriers will continue to void sailings to maintain the container slot supply-demand balance on key lanes out of Asia to Europe and the US, and also on other trade lanes,” he added. “This means container markets will likely remain relatively tight even if the negative economic forecasts are proven correct. We’re planning for all eventualities and urging customers to do likewise.”] =>
[] =>
[multiple-disruptions-putting-pressure-on-supply-chain] => multiple-disruptions-putting-pressure-on-supply-chain
[potential-economic-headwinds-add-stress-to-supply-chain-key-image] => potential-economic-headwinds-add-stress-to-supply-chain-key-image
[Potential economic headwinds add stress to supply chain] => Potential economic headwinds add stress to supply chain
[cautious-approach-peak-season-despite-brief-respite-key-image] => cautious-approach-peak-season-despite-brief-respite-key-image
[Adopt cautious approach ahead of peak season despite brief respite Meta] => Adopt cautious approach ahead of peak season despite brief respite Meta
[multiple-disruptions-putting-pressure-on-supply-chain-single-column] => multiple-disruptions-putting-pressure-on-supply-chain-single-column
[multiple-disruptions-putting-pressure-on-supply-chain-key-image] => multiple-disruptions-putting-pressure-on-supply-chain-key-image
)
[$value] => Economists and analysts have now largely converged on the fact that the global economy is slowing down. Equally, most agree that some countries will almost certainly turn recessionary in the coming quarters.
Ocean container markets are not quite as taut as they have been for the last two years under Covid-19. But the northern hemisphere summer is still proving challenging for ocean shipping stakeholders as a slew of new and re-occurring supply chain disruptions blight the best laid plans.
“Forwarders are used to managing crises and finding solutions to ensure customers’ businesses run smoothly,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific. “Covid-19 has seen those challenges increase and this summer has seen no let-up."
“There are concerning economic signs, but we are still seeing green shoots that the freight pipeline remains healthy, even though volumes might be levelling off from Covid-19 peaks and returning to more historically normal levels,” added Leung.
Summer sun turning up the heat in Europe supply chain
Across Europe, sizzling temperatures throughout summer have left the continent’s rivers dangerously low. The Danube River, Europe’s longest, was barely navigable for barge traffic by mid-August. At the same juncture, the Rhine, a key industrial artery, was all but closed to freight at some sections as water levels fell to historic lows.
European ports have also been hit by strike action. Negotiations between unions and ports operators in Germany are ongoing while in the UK workers at the ports of Liverpool and Felixstowe have announced strikes in August.
The lack of barge shipping options is piling more pressure on already stretched European rail and road networks.
)
Array
(
[derick] => Array
(
[Trade is growing at a sluggish pace as cargo movers across international borders continue to fight fires.] => 跨国航运公司忙着“救火”，贸易增长速度缓慢。
[[]] =>
[Multiple disruptions putting pressure on supply chain] => 供应链连连中断，压力攀升
[Trade is still growing, albeit at a more sluggish pace, as those in the business of moving cargo across international borders continue to fight fires old and new.] => 旧火未灭，新火又起，跨国航运公司忙着“救火”，无暇他顾，贸易虽有增长，但是速度较慢。
[China exports slowed by ongoing pandemic restrictions
In China, factory activity unexpectedly shrank in July as ongoing Covid-19 outbreaks impacted operations. The official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to 49.0 in July, from 50.2 in June, with new orders and output both registering declines, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics. In part, this is because fresh Covid-19 lockdowns in key production regions around Shenzhen in the south and Tianjin in the north have disrupted manufacturing.
Global shipping has also suffered disruptions in recent weeks as China has conducted live-fire military exercises in the Taiwan Strait.
Improved U.S. port situations, but congestion remains
Congestion at U.S. West Coast ports, particularly the Los Angeles and Long Beach facilities which act as the main gateway to North America, has improved through 2022.
Even so, overall U.S. port congestion is not seeing much improvement from the start of the year as congestion has instead shifted to the Gulf and East coast ports. Over 150 ships were waiting off U.S. ports in late July with Savannah, Georgia, New York, New Jersey and Houston among the worst performers. The congestion is the result of record high imports to the U.S. East Coast this year as shippers have sought to avoid delays on the West Coast.
Carrier schedule reliability has plummeted as a result. In June schedule reliability on East Coast services was just 18.7 percent, while vessels arriving late suffered an average delay of nine days, according to Sea-Intelligence.] =>
进入2022年，美国西海岸港口的拥堵状况已经得到明显缓解，尤其是拥堵情况曾经最为严重的两个北美主要门户：洛杉矶港和长滩港。
即便如此，美国港口的整体拥堵情况与年初相比并没有太大改善，因为拥堵的压力已转移到墨西哥湾和东海岸的港口。7月下旬，在美国各港口等待的船只数量超过150艘，其中等待的船只数量最多的港口分别是佐治亚州萨凡纳港、纽约-新泽西港、休斯顿港。由于大多数发货人为了避免货物在西海岸港口遭到拖延，纷纷改变原来的运输方案，导致今年美东港口的进口量创历史新高，造成了严重的拥堵问题。
航运公司的船期可靠性急剧下滑。根据Sea-Intelligence的数据，6月份东海岸服务的船期可靠性仅为18.7%，而迟到船舶的平均延误时间为9天。
[Economic deterioration
Rising prices of many products alongside slowing economic growth are, of course, dampening economic forecasts. In July, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgraded its outlook, forecasting global GDP growth of 3.2 percent this year, a cut of 0.4 percentage points from its April forecast.
The forecast for annual global growth in 2023 was also revised, down 0.7 percentage points to just 2.9 percent.
In terms of freight demand, IMF forecasts for advanced countries – the biggest buyers of many containerised products – were cut even more aggressively. The U.S. economy is now forecast by the IMF to grow 2.3 percent this year (versus a forecast of 3.7 percent in April) and just one percent in 2023 (down from 2.3 percent).
Europe’s biggest economy, Germany, saw a huge 1.9 percentage point downgrade to its GDP growth forecast for 2023 when 0.8 percent growth is now expected. Overall, Europe saw 1.1 percentage point cut to its growth forecast for 2023 when GDP is expected to expand by 1.2 percent.
All of which translates into global trade in goods and services expanding 4.1 percent this year, down 0.9 percentage points from the IMF’s April trade forecast.
Box rates stumble
With macroeconomic headwinds strong and recessions now being forecast for many leading trading economies, it is perhaps unsurprising that container spot freight rates have been falling consistently in recent weeks on headhaul routes out of China. However, although freight rates have fallen a long way this year, this is no precipitous plunge. Freight rates on many lanes are still three to four times higher than pre-pandemic levels.
Even so, carriers have started blanking more sailings in a bid to stop further freight rate slides.
Dominique von Orelli, Global Head, Ocean Freight, DHL Global Forwarding, said much now depends on how quickly central banks can control inflation and limit any major economic contractions.
“It’s clear that carriers will continue to void sailings to maintain the container slot supply-demand balance on key lanes out of Asia to Europe and the US, and also on other trade lanes,” he added. “This means container markets will likely remain relatively tight even if the negative economic forecasts are proven correct. We’re planning for all eventualities and urging customers to do likewise.”] =>
由于宏观经济遭遇强劲逆风，许多主要贸易经济体预计将出现经济衰退，因此最近几周中国出口往程航线上的集装箱即期运费持续下跌。不过，虽然今年运费连续回落，但是价格依然高企。许多航线上的运费仍比疫情前的水平高出三到四倍。
虽然价格利好仍然存在，为阻止“跌跌不休”的运费，各运输企业已经开始取消许多船运航班。
DHL Global Forwarding海运业务全球负责人Dominique von Orelli表示，各国央行控制通货膨胀和限制任何重大经济萎缩的速度，在很大程度上会影响海运价格的波动。
“显然，为了维持亚洲到欧美的主要航线以及其他贸易航线的集装箱舱位供需平衡，运输企业会继续取消船运航班。”他还补充道，“也就是说，即使经济的发展如预期的那般不乐观，集装箱市场仍可能相对紧张。目前，我们正在为所有可能发生的事情做准备，同时敦促我们的客户做好同样的准备。”
[Economists and analysts have now largely converged on the fact that the global economy is slowing down. Equally, most agree that some countries will almost certainly turn recessionary in the coming quarters.
Ocean container markets are not quite as taut as they have been for the last two years under Covid-19. But the northern hemisphere summer is still proving challenging for ocean shipping stakeholders as a slew of new and re-occurring supply chain disruptions blight the best laid plans.
“Forwarders are used to managing crises and finding solutions to ensure customers’ businesses run smoothly,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific. “Covid-19 has seen those challenges increase and this summer has seen no let-up."
“There are concerning economic signs, but we are still seeing green shoots that the freight pipeline remains healthy, even though volumes might be levelling off from Covid-19 peaks and returning to more historically normal levels,” added Leung.
Summer sun turning up the heat in Europe supply chain
Across Europe, sizzling temperatures throughout summer have left the continent’s rivers dangerously low. The Danube River, Europe’s longest, was barely navigable for barge traffic by mid-August. At the same juncture, the Rhine, a key industrial artery, was all but closed to freight at some sections as water levels fell to historic lows.
European ports have also been hit by strike action. Negotiations between unions and ports operators in Germany are ongoing while in the UK workers at the ports of Liverpool and Felixstowe have announced strikes in August.
The lack of barge shipping options is piling more pressure on already stretched European rail and road networks.] => 目前，经济学家和分析师基本同意，全球经济正在放缓。同样地，其中大部分人预计，未来几个季度内，一些国家的经济几乎肯定会陷入衰退。
过去两年，受新冠疫情的影响，海运集装箱市场运力失衡，而今年港口运转逐渐恢复常态。不过事实证明，对于海运利益相关者而言，今年夏季的北半球海运仍充满了挑战，无论他们的计划做得多么周密详细，各种新的、重复发生的供应链中断问题都会把他们的计划打乱。
“为保证客户业务平稳运行，货运代理商习惯于进行危机管理，寻求各种解决方案。”DHL Global Forwarding亚太区首席执行官Kelvin Leung表示，“新冠疫情带来了更多的挑战，今年夏天也不例外。”
Leung还补充道：“虽然目前的经济迹象不容乐观，但是我们仍能在货运渠道捕捉到一些好的迹象，即使货运量可能会从新冠疫情时期的峰值回落到平稳状态，再进一步恢复到历史正常水平。”
欧洲供应链受炎炎夏日“烤”验
今年夏天，热浪肆虐，欧洲大陆主要河流干涸，水位大幅下降。到8月中旬，在欧洲最长的河流——多瑙河上，驳船几乎无法通航。与此同时，由于水位降至历史低位，重要的工业大动脉——莱茵河的某些河段也几乎无法输送货物。
欧洲各港口也发生了罢工事件。德国工会和德国港口运营商之间仍在谈判，而英国利物浦和费利克斯托港口的工人也宣布将在8月举行大规模罢工。
对于本已捉襟见肘的欧洲铁路和公路网而言，驳船无法通行无异于雪上加霜。
[wysiwyg] => wysiwyg
[outbound_box] => outbound_box
[Trade is still growing, albeit at a more sluggish pace, as those in the business of moving cargo across international borders continue to fight fires old and new. Economists and analysts have now largely converged on the fact that the global economy is slowing down. Equally, most agree that some countries will almost certainly turn recessionary in the coming quarters.
Ocean container markets are not quite as taut as they have been for the last two years under Covid-19. But the northern hemisphere summer is still proving challenging for ocean shipping stakeholders as a slew of new and re-occurring supply chain disruptions blight the best laid plans.
“Forwarders are used to managing crises and finding solutions to ensure customers’ businesses run smoothly,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific. “Covid-19 has seen those challenges increase and this summer has seen no let-up.”
“There are concerning economic signs, but we are still seeing green shoots that the freight pipeline remains healthy, even though volumes might be levelling off from Covid-19 peaks and returning to more historically normal levels,” added Leung.
Summer sun turning up the heat in Europe supply chain
Across Europe, sizzling temperatures throughout summer have left the continent’s rivers dangerously low. The Danube River, Europe’s longest, was barely navigable for barge traffic by mid-August. At the same juncture, the Rhine, a key industrial artery, was all but closed to freight at some sections as water levels fell to historic lows.
European ports have also been hit by strike action. Negotiations between unions and ports operators in Germany are ongoing while in the UK workers at the ports of Liverpool and Felixstowe have announced strikes in August.
The lack of barge shipping options is piling more pressure on already stretched European rail and road networks.
RELATED ARTICLESPotential economic headwinds add stress to supply chainDespite softened rates from a Q2 slowdown, uncertainties loom heavily.China exports slowed by ongoing pandemic restrictions
In China, factory activity unexpectedly shrank in July as ongoing Covid-19 outbreaks impacted operations. The official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to 49.0 in July, from 50.2 in June, with new orders and output both registering declines, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics. In part, this is because fresh Covid-19 lockdowns in key production regions around Shenzhen in the south and Tianjin in the north have disrupted manufacturing.
Global shipping has also suffered disruptions in recent weeks as China has conducted live-fire military exercises in the Taiwan Strait.
Improved U.S. port situations, but congestion remains
Congestion at U.S. West Coast ports, particularly the Los Angeles and Long Beach facilities which act as the main gateway to North America, has improved through 2022.
Even so, overall U.S. port congestion is not seeing much improvement from the start of the year as congestion has instead shifted to the Gulf and East coast ports. Over 150 ships were waiting off U.S. ports in late July with Savannah, Georgia, New York, New Jersey and Houston among the worst performers. The congestion is the result of record high imports to the U.S. East Coast this year as shippers have sought to avoid delays on the West Coast.
Carrier schedule reliability has plummeted as a result. In June schedule reliability on East Coast services was just 18.7 percent, while vessels arriving late suffered an average delay of nine days, according to Sea-Intelligence.
RELATED ARTICLESAdopt cautious approach ahead of peak season despite brief respiteWhile air capacity saw some return with reduced demand from lockdowns, the approaching peak season and economic outlook spell further uncertainty.Economic deterioration
Rising prices of many products alongside slowing economic growth are, of course, dampening economic forecasts. In July, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgraded its outlook, forecasting global GDP growth of 3.2 percent this year, a cut of 0.4 percentage points from its April forecast.
The forecast for annual global growth in 2023 was also revised, down 0.7 percentage points to just 2.9 percent.
In terms of freight demand, IMF forecasts for advanced countries – the biggest buyers of many containerised products – were cut even more aggressively. The U.S. economy is now forecast by the IMF to grow 2.3 percent this year (versus a forecast of 3.7 percent in April) and just one percent in 2023 (down from 2.3 percent).
Europe’s biggest economy, Germany, saw a huge 1.9 percentage point downgrade to its GDP growth forecast for 2023 when 0.8 percent growth is now expected. Overall, Europe saw 1.1 percentage point cut to its growth forecast for 2023 when GDP is expected to expand by 1.2 percent.
All of which translates into global trade in goods and services expanding 4.1 percent this year, down 0.9 percentage points from the IMF’s April trade forecast.
Box rates stumble
With macroeconomic headwinds strong and recessions now being forecast for many leading trading economies, it is perhaps unsurprising that container spot freight rates have been falling consistently in recent weeks on headhaul routes out of China. However, although freight rates have fallen a long way this year, this is no precipitous plunge. Freight rates on many lanes are still three to four times higher than pre-pandemic levels.
Even so, carriers have started blanking more sailings in a bid to stop further freight rate slides.
Dominique von Orelli, Global Head, Ocean Freight, DHL Global Forwarding, said much now depends on how quickly central banks can control inflation and limit any major economic contractions.
“It’s clear that carriers will continue to void sailings to maintain the container slot supply-demand balance on key lanes out of Asia to Europe and the US, and also on other trade lanes,” he added. “This means container markets will likely remain relatively tight even if the negative economic forecasts are proven correct. We’re planning for all eventualities and urging customers to do likewise.”] =>
[] =>
[multiple-disruptions-putting-pressure-on-supply-chain] => multiple-disruptions-putting-pressure-on-supply-chain
[potential-economic-headwinds-add-stress-to-supply-chain-key-image] => potential-economic-headwinds-add-stress-to-supply-chain-key-image
[Potential economic headwinds add stress to supply chain] => Potential economic headwinds add stress to supply chain
[cautious-approach-peak-season-despite-brief-respite-key-image] => cautious-approach-peak-season-despite-brief-respite-key-image
[Adopt cautious approach ahead of peak season despite brief respite Meta] => Adopt cautious approach ahead of peak season despite brief respite Meta
[multiple-disruptions-putting-pressure-on-supply-chain-single-column] => multiple-disruptions-putting-pressure-on-supply-chain-single-column
[multiple-disruptions-putting-pressure-on-supply-chain-key-image] => multiple-disruptions-putting-pressure-on-supply-chain-key-image
)
[$value] => China exports slowed by ongoing pandemic restrictions
In China, factory activity unexpectedly shrank in July as ongoing Covid-19 outbreaks impacted operations. The official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to 49.0 in July, from 50.2 in June, with new orders and output both registering declines, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics. In part, this is because fresh Covid-19 lockdowns in key production regions around Shenzhen in the south and Tianjin in the north have disrupted manufacturing.
Global shipping has also suffered disruptions in recent weeks as China has conducted live-fire military exercises in the Taiwan Strait.
Improved U.S. port situations, but congestion remains
Congestion at U.S. West Coast ports, particularly the Los Angeles and Long Beach facilities which act as the main gateway to North America, has improved through 2022.
Even so, overall U.S. port congestion is not seeing much improvement from the start of the year as congestion has instead shifted to the Gulf and East coast ports. Over 150 ships were waiting off U.S. ports in late July with Savannah, Georgia, New York, New Jersey and Houston among the worst performers. The congestion is the result of record high imports to the U.S. East Coast this year as shippers have sought to avoid delays on the West Coast.
Carrier schedule reliability has plummeted as a result. In June schedule reliability on East Coast services was just 18.7 percent, while vessels arriving late suffered an average delay of nine days, according to Sea-Intelligence.
)
Array
(
[derick] => Array
(
[Trade is growing at a sluggish pace as cargo movers across international borders continue to fight fires.] => 跨国航运公司忙着“救火”，贸易增长速度缓慢。
[[]] =>
[Multiple disruptions putting pressure on supply chain] => 供应链连连中断，压力攀升
[Trade is still growing, albeit at a more sluggish pace, as those in the business of moving cargo across international borders continue to fight fires old and new.] => 旧火未灭，新火又起，跨国航运公司忙着“救火”，无暇他顾，贸易虽有增长，但是速度较慢。
[China exports slowed by ongoing pandemic restrictions
In China, factory activity unexpectedly shrank in July as ongoing Covid-19 outbreaks impacted operations. The official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to 49.0 in July, from 50.2 in June, with new orders and output both registering declines, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics. In part, this is because fresh Covid-19 lockdowns in key production regions around Shenzhen in the south and Tianjin in the north have disrupted manufacturing.
Global shipping has also suffered disruptions in recent weeks as China has conducted live-fire military exercises in the Taiwan Strait.
Improved U.S. port situations, but congestion remains
Congestion at U.S. West Coast ports, particularly the Los Angeles and Long Beach facilities which act as the main gateway to North America, has improved through 2022.
Even so, overall U.S. port congestion is not seeing much improvement from the start of the year as congestion has instead shifted to the Gulf and East coast ports. Over 150 ships were waiting off U.S. ports in late July with Savannah, Georgia, New York, New Jersey and Houston among the worst performers. The congestion is the result of record high imports to the U.S. East Coast this year as shippers have sought to avoid delays on the West Coast.
Carrier schedule reliability has plummeted as a result. In June schedule reliability on East Coast services was just 18.7 percent, while vessels arriving late suffered an average delay of nine days, according to Sea-Intelligence.] =>
进入2022年，美国西海岸港口的拥堵状况已经得到明显缓解，尤其是拥堵情况曾经最为严重的两个北美主要门户：洛杉矶港和长滩港。
即便如此，美国港口的整体拥堵情况与年初相比并没有太大改善，因为拥堵的压力已转移到墨西哥湾和东海岸的港口。7月下旬，在美国各港口等待的船只数量超过150艘，其中等待的船只数量最多的港口分别是佐治亚州萨凡纳港、纽约-新泽西港、休斯顿港。由于大多数发货人为了避免货物在西海岸港口遭到拖延，纷纷改变原来的运输方案，导致今年美东港口的进口量创历史新高，造成了严重的拥堵问题。
航运公司的船期可靠性急剧下滑。根据Sea-Intelligence的数据，6月份东海岸服务的船期可靠性仅为18.7%，而迟到船舶的平均延误时间为9天。
[Economic deterioration
Rising prices of many products alongside slowing economic growth are, of course, dampening economic forecasts. In July, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgraded its outlook, forecasting global GDP growth of 3.2 percent this year, a cut of 0.4 percentage points from its April forecast.
The forecast for annual global growth in 2023 was also revised, down 0.7 percentage points to just 2.9 percent.
In terms of freight demand, IMF forecasts for advanced countries – the biggest buyers of many containerised products – were cut even more aggressively. The U.S. economy is now forecast by the IMF to grow 2.3 percent this year (versus a forecast of 3.7 percent in April) and just one percent in 2023 (down from 2.3 percent).
Europe’s biggest economy, Germany, saw a huge 1.9 percentage point downgrade to its GDP growth forecast for 2023 when 0.8 percent growth is now expected. Overall, Europe saw 1.1 percentage point cut to its growth forecast for 2023 when GDP is expected to expand by 1.2 percent.
All of which translates into global trade in goods and services expanding 4.1 percent this year, down 0.9 percentage points from the IMF’s April trade forecast.
Box rates stumble
With macroeconomic headwinds strong and recessions now being forecast for many leading trading economies, it is perhaps unsurprising that container spot freight rates have been falling consistently in recent weeks on headhaul routes out of China. However, although freight rates have fallen a long way this year, this is no precipitous plunge. Freight rates on many lanes are still three to four times higher than pre-pandemic levels.
Even so, carriers have started blanking more sailings in a bid to stop further freight rate slides.
Dominique von Orelli, Global Head, Ocean Freight, DHL Global Forwarding, said much now depends on how quickly central banks can control inflation and limit any major economic contractions.
“It’s clear that carriers will continue to void sailings to maintain the container slot supply-demand balance on key lanes out of Asia to Europe and the US, and also on other trade lanes,” he added. “This means container markets will likely remain relatively tight even if the negative economic forecasts are proven correct. We’re planning for all eventualities and urging customers to do likewise.”] =>
由于宏观经济遭遇强劲逆风，许多主要贸易经济体预计将出现经济衰退，因此最近几周中国出口往程航线上的集装箱即期运费持续下跌。不过，虽然今年运费连续回落，但是价格依然高企。许多航线上的运费仍比疫情前的水平高出三到四倍。
虽然价格利好仍然存在，为阻止“跌跌不休”的运费，各运输企业已经开始取消许多船运航班。
DHL Global Forwarding海运业务全球负责人Dominique von Orelli表示，各国央行控制通货膨胀和限制任何重大经济萎缩的速度，在很大程度上会影响海运价格的波动。
“显然，为了维持亚洲到欧美的主要航线以及其他贸易航线的集装箱舱位供需平衡，运输企业会继续取消船运航班。”他还补充道，“也就是说，即使经济的发展如预期的那般不乐观，集装箱市场仍可能相对紧张。目前，我们正在为所有可能发生的事情做准备，同时敦促我们的客户做好同样的准备。”
[Economists and analysts have now largely converged on the fact that the global economy is slowing down. Equally, most agree that some countries will almost certainly turn recessionary in the coming quarters.
Ocean container markets are not quite as taut as they have been for the last two years under Covid-19. But the northern hemisphere summer is still proving challenging for ocean shipping stakeholders as a slew of new and re-occurring supply chain disruptions blight the best laid plans.
“Forwarders are used to managing crises and finding solutions to ensure customers’ businesses run smoothly,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific. “Covid-19 has seen those challenges increase and this summer has seen no let-up."
“There are concerning economic signs, but we are still seeing green shoots that the freight pipeline remains healthy, even though volumes might be levelling off from Covid-19 peaks and returning to more historically normal levels,” added Leung.
Summer sun turning up the heat in Europe supply chain
Across Europe, sizzling temperatures throughout summer have left the continent’s rivers dangerously low. The Danube River, Europe’s longest, was barely navigable for barge traffic by mid-August. At the same juncture, the Rhine, a key industrial artery, was all but closed to freight at some sections as water levels fell to historic lows.
European ports have also been hit by strike action. Negotiations between unions and ports operators in Germany are ongoing while in the UK workers at the ports of Liverpool and Felixstowe have announced strikes in August.
The lack of barge shipping options is piling more pressure on already stretched European rail and road networks.] => 目前，经济学家和分析师基本同意，全球经济正在放缓。同样地，其中大部分人预计，未来几个季度内，一些国家的经济几乎肯定会陷入衰退。
过去两年，受新冠疫情的影响，海运集装箱市场运力失衡，而今年港口运转逐渐恢复常态。不过事实证明，对于海运利益相关者而言，今年夏季的北半球海运仍充满了挑战，无论他们的计划做得多么周密详细，各种新的、重复发生的供应链中断问题都会把他们的计划打乱。
“为保证客户业务平稳运行，货运代理商习惯于进行危机管理，寻求各种解决方案。”DHL Global Forwarding亚太区首席执行官Kelvin Leung表示，“新冠疫情带来了更多的挑战，今年夏天也不例外。”
Leung还补充道：“虽然目前的经济迹象不容乐观，但是我们仍能在货运渠道捕捉到一些好的迹象，即使货运量可能会从新冠疫情时期的峰值回落到平稳状态，再进一步恢复到历史正常水平。”
欧洲供应链受炎炎夏日“烤”验
今年夏天，热浪肆虐，欧洲大陆主要河流干涸，水位大幅下降。到8月中旬，在欧洲最长的河流——多瑙河上，驳船几乎无法通航。与此同时，由于水位降至历史低位，重要的工业大动脉——莱茵河的某些河段也几乎无法输送货物。
欧洲各港口也发生了罢工事件。德国工会和德国港口运营商之间仍在谈判，而英国利物浦和费利克斯托港口的工人也宣布将在8月举行大规模罢工。
对于本已捉襟见肘的欧洲铁路和公路网而言，驳船无法通行无异于雪上加霜。
[wysiwyg] => wysiwyg
[outbound_box] => outbound_box
[Trade is still growing, albeit at a more sluggish pace, as those in the business of moving cargo across international borders continue to fight fires old and new. Economists and analysts have now largely converged on the fact that the global economy is slowing down. Equally, most agree that some countries will almost certainly turn recessionary in the coming quarters.
Ocean container markets are not quite as taut as they have been for the last two years under Covid-19. But the northern hemisphere summer is still proving challenging for ocean shipping stakeholders as a slew of new and re-occurring supply chain disruptions blight the best laid plans.
“Forwarders are used to managing crises and finding solutions to ensure customers’ businesses run smoothly,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific. “Covid-19 has seen those challenges increase and this summer has seen no let-up.”
“There are concerning economic signs, but we are still seeing green shoots that the freight pipeline remains healthy, even though volumes might be levelling off from Covid-19 peaks and returning to more historically normal levels,” added Leung.
Summer sun turning up the heat in Europe supply chain
Across Europe, sizzling temperatures throughout summer have left the continent’s rivers dangerously low. The Danube River, Europe’s longest, was barely navigable for barge traffic by mid-August. At the same juncture, the Rhine, a key industrial artery, was all but closed to freight at some sections as water levels fell to historic lows.
European ports have also been hit by strike action. Negotiations between unions and ports operators in Germany are ongoing while in the UK workers at the ports of Liverpool and Felixstowe have announced strikes in August.
The lack of barge shipping options is piling more pressure on already stretched European rail and road networks.
RELATED ARTICLESPotential economic headwinds add stress to supply chainDespite softened rates from a Q2 slowdown, uncertainties loom heavily.China exports slowed by ongoing pandemic restrictions
In China, factory activity unexpectedly shrank in July as ongoing Covid-19 outbreaks impacted operations. The official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to 49.0 in July, from 50.2 in June, with new orders and output both registering declines, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics. In part, this is because fresh Covid-19 lockdowns in key production regions around Shenzhen in the south and Tianjin in the north have disrupted manufacturing.
Global shipping has also suffered disruptions in recent weeks as China has conducted live-fire military exercises in the Taiwan Strait.
Improved U.S. port situations, but congestion remains
Congestion at U.S. West Coast ports, particularly the Los Angeles and Long Beach facilities which act as the main gateway to North America, has improved through 2022.
Even so, overall U.S. port congestion is not seeing much improvement from the start of the year as congestion has instead shifted to the Gulf and East coast ports. Over 150 ships were waiting off U.S. ports in late July with Savannah, Georgia, New York, New Jersey and Houston among the worst performers. The congestion is the result of record high imports to the U.S. East Coast this year as shippers have sought to avoid delays on the West Coast.
Carrier schedule reliability has plummeted as a result. In June schedule reliability on East Coast services was just 18.7 percent, while vessels arriving late suffered an average delay of nine days, according to Sea-Intelligence.
RELATED ARTICLESAdopt cautious approach ahead of peak season despite brief respiteWhile air capacity saw some return with reduced demand from lockdowns, the approaching peak season and economic outlook spell further uncertainty.Economic deterioration
Rising prices of many products alongside slowing economic growth are, of course, dampening economic forecasts. In July, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgraded its outlook, forecasting global GDP growth of 3.2 percent this year, a cut of 0.4 percentage points from its April forecast.
The forecast for annual global growth in 2023 was also revised, down 0.7 percentage points to just 2.9 percent.
In terms of freight demand, IMF forecasts for advanced countries – the biggest buyers of many containerised products – were cut even more aggressively. The U.S. economy is now forecast by the IMF to grow 2.3 percent this year (versus a forecast of 3.7 percent in April) and just one percent in 2023 (down from 2.3 percent).
Europe’s biggest economy, Germany, saw a huge 1.9 percentage point downgrade to its GDP growth forecast for 2023 when 0.8 percent growth is now expected. Overall, Europe saw 1.1 percentage point cut to its growth forecast for 2023 when GDP is expected to expand by 1.2 percent.
All of which translates into global trade in goods and services expanding 4.1 percent this year, down 0.9 percentage points from the IMF’s April trade forecast.
Box rates stumble
With macroeconomic headwinds strong and recessions now being forecast for many leading trading economies, it is perhaps unsurprising that container spot freight rates have been falling consistently in recent weeks on headhaul routes out of China. However, although freight rates have fallen a long way this year, this is no precipitous plunge. Freight rates on many lanes are still three to four times higher than pre-pandemic levels.
Even so, carriers have started blanking more sailings in a bid to stop further freight rate slides.
Dominique von Orelli, Global Head, Ocean Freight, DHL Global Forwarding, said much now depends on how quickly central banks can control inflation and limit any major economic contractions.
“It’s clear that carriers will continue to void sailings to maintain the container slot supply-demand balance on key lanes out of Asia to Europe and the US, and also on other trade lanes,” he added. “This means container markets will likely remain relatively tight even if the negative economic forecasts are proven correct. We’re planning for all eventualities and urging customers to do likewise.”] =>
[] =>
[multiple-disruptions-putting-pressure-on-supply-chain] => multiple-disruptions-putting-pressure-on-supply-chain
[potential-economic-headwinds-add-stress-to-supply-chain-key-image] => potential-economic-headwinds-add-stress-to-supply-chain-key-image
[Potential economic headwinds add stress to supply chain] => Potential economic headwinds add stress to supply chain
[cautious-approach-peak-season-despite-brief-respite-key-image] => cautious-approach-peak-season-despite-brief-respite-key-image
[Adopt cautious approach ahead of peak season despite brief respite Meta] => Adopt cautious approach ahead of peak season despite brief respite Meta
[multiple-disruptions-putting-pressure-on-supply-chain-single-column] => multiple-disruptions-putting-pressure-on-supply-chain-single-column
[multiple-disruptions-putting-pressure-on-supply-chain-key-image] => multiple-disruptions-putting-pressure-on-supply-chain-key-image
)
[$value] => Economic deterioration
Rising prices of many products alongside slowing economic growth are, of course, dampening economic forecasts. In July, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgraded its outlook, forecasting global GDP growth of 3.2 percent this year, a cut of 0.4 percentage points from its April forecast.
The forecast for annual global growth in 2023 was also revised, down 0.7 percentage points to just 2.9 percent.
In terms of freight demand, IMF forecasts for advanced countries – the biggest buyers of many containerised products – were cut even more aggressively. The U.S. economy is now forecast by the IMF to grow 2.3 percent this year (versus a forecast of 3.7 percent in April) and just one percent in 2023 (down from 2.3 percent).
Europe’s biggest economy, Germany, saw a huge 1.9 percentage point downgrade to its GDP growth forecast for 2023 when 0.8 percent growth is now expected. Overall, Europe saw 1.1 percentage point cut to its growth forecast for 2023 when GDP is expected to expand by 1.2 percent.
All of which translates into global trade in goods and services expanding 4.1 percent this year, down 0.9 percentage points from the IMF’s April trade forecast.
Box rates stumble
With macroeconomic headwinds strong and recessions now being forecast for many leading trading economies, it is perhaps unsurprising that container spot freight rates have been falling consistently in recent weeks on headhaul routes out of China. However, although freight rates have fallen a long way this year, this is no precipitous plunge. Freight rates on many lanes are still three to four times higher than pre-pandemic levels.
Even so, carriers have started blanking more sailings in a bid to stop further freight rate slides.
Dominique von Orelli, Global Head, Ocean Freight, DHL Global Forwarding, said much now depends on how quickly central banks can control inflation and limit any major economic contractions.
“It’s clear that carriers will continue to void sailings to maintain the container slot supply-demand balance on key lanes out of Asia to Europe and the US, and also on other trade lanes,” he added. “This means container markets will likely remain relatively tight even if the negative economic forecasts are proven correct. We’re planning for all eventualities and urging customers to do likewise.”
)
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