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供应链连连中断,压力攀升

旧火未灭,新火又起,跨国航运公司忙着“救火”,无暇他顾,贸易虽有增长,但是速度较慢。
2022 年 8月 29 日 •

目前,经济学家和分析师基本同意,全球经济正在放缓。同样地,其中大部分人预计,未来几个季度内,一些国家的经济几乎肯定会陷入衰退。

过去两年,受新冠疫情的影响,海运集装箱市场运力失衡,而今年港口运转逐渐恢复常态。不过事实证明,对于海运利益相关者而言,今年夏季的北半球海运仍充满了挑战,无论他们的计划做得多么周密详细,各种新的、重复发生的供应链中断问题都会把他们的计划打乱。

“为保证客户业务平稳运行,货运代理商习惯于进行危机管理,寻求各种解决方案。”DHL Global Forwarding亚太区首席执行官Kelvin Leung表示,“新冠疫情带来了更多的挑战,今年夏天也不例外。”

Leung还补充道:“虽然目前的经济迹象不容乐观,但是我们仍能在货运渠道捕捉到一些好的迹象,即使货运量可能会从新冠疫情时期的峰值回落到平稳状态,再进一步恢复到历史正常水平。”

欧洲供应链受炎炎夏日“烤”验

今年夏天,热浪肆虐,欧洲大陆主要河流干涸,水位大幅下降。到8月中旬,在欧洲最长的河流——多瑙河上,驳船几乎无法通航。与此同时,由于水位降至历史低位,重要的工业大动脉——莱茵河的某些河段也几乎无法输送货物。

欧洲各港口也发生了罢工事件。德国工会和德国港口运营商之间仍在谈判,而英国利物浦和费利克斯托港口的工人也宣布将在8月举行大规模罢工

对于本已捉襟见肘的欧洲铁路和公路网而言,驳船无法通行无异于雪上加霜。

受疫情的持续影响,中国出口增速放缓

受疫情的持续影响,中国7月份的工厂活动意外减少。根据中国国家统计局的数据,今年官方制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)从6月份的50.2%降至7月份的49.0%,新订单和产量均出现下滑。部分原因是,深圳和天津的主要产区爆发了新冠疫情,随之而来的防疫封控措施打断了制造业的生产计划。

而且在过去几个星期,因为中国在台湾海峡进行实弹军事演习,全球航运也受到了影响。

美国港口运营状况改善, 但拥堵问题仍未解决

进入2022年,美国西海岸港口的拥堵状况已经得到明显缓解,尤其是拥堵情况曾经最为严重的两个北美主要门户:洛杉矶港和长滩港。

即便如此,美国港口的整体拥堵情况与年初相比并没有太大改善,因为拥堵的压力已转移到墨西哥湾和东海岸的港口。7月下旬,在美国各港口等待的船只数量超过150艘,其中等待的船只数量最多的港口分别是佐治亚州萨凡纳港、纽约-新泽西港、休斯顿港。由于大多数发货人为了避免货物在西海岸港口遭到拖延,纷纷改变原来的运输方案,导致今年美东港口的进口量创历史新高,造成了严重的拥堵问题。

航运公司的船期可靠性急剧下滑。根据Sea-Intelligence的数据,6月份东海岸服务的船期可靠性仅为18.7%,而迟到船舶的平均延误时间为9天。

经济形势恶化

产品价格上涨,经济增长速度放缓,经济预期自然不会乐观。7月,国际货币基金组织(IMF)将2022年全球GDP增长预期下调至3.2%,比今年4月发布的预期又下降了0.4个百分点。

国际货币基金组织还将2023年全球经济增长预期调整至2.9%,比之前的预测下降了0.7个百分点。

在货运需求方面,国际货币基金组织进一步大幅下调对发达国家(许多集装箱产品的大买家)的预期。美国今年的经济增长预期被下调至2.3%,而4月份发布的预期为3.7%,美国2023年的增长预期也从此前的2.3%下调为仅1.0%。

德国作为欧洲最大的经济体,其2023年GDP增长预期被大幅下调1.9个百分点,预计增速为0.8%。国际货币基金组织还下调了整个欧洲2023年的经济增长预期,减少1.1个百分点,预计增速为1.2%。

受上述预期下调影响,今年全球商品和服务贸易预期增长4.1%,比国际货币基金组织4月份发布的预期降低了0.9个百分点。

集装箱运费下跌

由于宏观经济遭遇强劲逆风,许多主要贸易经济体预计将出现经济衰退,因此最近几周中国出口往程航线上的集装箱即期运费持续下跌。不过,虽然今年运费连续回落,但是价格依然高企。许多航线上的运费仍比疫情前的水平高出三到四倍。

虽然价格利好仍然存在,为阻止“跌跌不休”的运费,各运输企业已经开始取消许多船运航班

DHL Global Forwarding海运业务全球负责人Dominique von Orelli表示,各国央行控制通货膨胀和限制任何重大经济萎缩的速度,在很大程度上会影响海运价格的波动。

“显然,为了维持亚洲到欧美的主要航线以及其他贸易航线的集装箱舱位供需平衡,运输企业会继续取消船运航班。”他还补充道,“也就是说,即使经济的发展如预期的那般不乐观,集装箱市场仍可能相对紧张。目前,我们正在为所有可能发生的事情做准备,同时敦促我们的客户做好同样的准备。”

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            [seo_title] => 供应链连连中断,压力攀升
            [introduction_paragraph] => 旧火未灭,新火又起,跨国航运公司忙着“救火”,无暇他顾,贸易虽有增长,但是速度较慢。
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目前,经济学家和分析师基本同意,全球经济正在放缓。同样地,其中大部分人预计,未来几个季度内,一些国家的经济几乎肯定会陷入衰退。

过去两年,受新冠疫情的影响,海运集装箱市场运力失衡,而今年港口运转逐渐恢复常态。不过事实证明,对于海运利益相关者而言,今年夏季的北半球海运仍充满了挑战,无论他们的计划做得多么周密详细,各种新的、重复发生的供应链中断问题都会把他们的计划打乱。

“为保证客户业务平稳运行,货运代理商习惯于进行危机管理,寻求各种解决方案。”DHL Global Forwarding亚太区首席执行官Kelvin Leung表示,“新冠疫情带来了更多的挑战,今年夏天也不例外。”

Leung还补充道:“虽然目前的经济迹象不容乐观,但是我们仍能在货运渠道捕捉到一些好的迹象,即使货运量可能会从新冠疫情时期的峰值回落到平稳状态,再进一步恢复到历史正常水平。”

欧洲供应链受炎炎夏日“烤”验

今年夏天,热浪肆虐,欧洲大陆主要河流干涸,水位大幅下降。到8月中旬,在欧洲最长的河流——多瑙河上,驳船几乎无法通航。与此同时,由于水位降至历史低位,重要的工业大动脉——莱茵河的某些河段也几乎无法输送货物。

欧洲各港口也发生了罢工事件。德国工会和德国港口运营商之间仍在谈判,而英国利物浦和费利克斯托港口的工人也宣布将在8月举行大规模罢工

对于本已捉襟见肘的欧洲铁路和公路网而言,驳船无法通行无异于雪上加霜。

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尽管第二季度经济放缓导致费率疲软,不确定因素仍在大举逼近。

随着集装箱运输的旺季即将来临,有两大趋势很可能决定未来几周和几个月内的市场状况。

首先,就东西方主要贸易航线通常运输的货物的需求而言,随着经济增长放缓、通胀拖累信心和底线以及俄乌战争继续困扰供应链,业内观点一致转向看跌。

其次,即使今年到目前为止运费费率一直在下降,第二季度经济增长也放缓,全球供应链仍处于紧张状态而且容易受进一步干扰的影响。

旺季来临前的未知因素

然而,目前无法确定未来全球经济衰退带来的影响会有多大,以及主要市场开始紧缩时集装箱运输需求可能会下降多少。

而且,即使集装箱运输需求显著下降,大多数分析师认为仍需要好几个季度才能使班轮船期回到正轨、消除港口拥塞并让空集装箱回到原位。实际上,即便第二季度需求疲软,改善班轮船期可靠性的进展甚微。

进入第三季度旺季,意味着货运量较第二季度会略微上升――第二季度是集装箱运输的传统淡季,美国和欧洲的港口拥塞现象很可能会进一步恶化,从而不可避免地导致船只运力无法用于满足需求,造成当地设备短缺,而且最有可能的是再次拉高即期运费费率。

“毫无疑问,很多经济指标都在恶化,一些市场有可能逐步走向放缓,但仍不清楚着陆的难度有多大,”DGF亚太区首席执行官Kelvin Leung说道。“可以确定的是,全世界仍有很多货物在运输途中,供应链瓶颈十分明显。

持续的困境

毫无疑问,多个瓶颈继续对海洋供应链的运行效率造成影响,而且今年晚些时候出现更多瓶颈的风险仍然很高。例如,中国严格的新冠疫情防控措施目前已经解除,尤其是上海一带,但无法保证今年晚些时候会不会再次出现多地封锁的情况。

在欧洲,北部枢纽港正在努力运出空箱,而船只周转时间延长了,从而导致运输时间增加。内陆铁路、驳船和公路运营商也在努力解决运力短缺问题。

DHL的《7月海运市场最新消息》指出,欧洲港口拥塞仍然十分严重,导致船期延误以及更多的承运商空船航行。该《最新消息》还强调,设备供应仍然非常紧张,尤其是40英尺高柜。

由于通胀,工会加大罢工力度以谋求更高的报酬,多个主要港口也受到影响。

美国东海岸港口继续承受港口拥塞之苦,因为在美国西海岸港口,随着先前的多年协议在6月底到期,工会代表正在与雇主协商新合同,因此承运商都试图避开美国西海岸港口。

如果谈判不顺利,那么今年晚些时候更多不利因素会显现,而罢工有可能导致29个港口关闭,包括对跨太平洋物流至关重要的洛杉矶港和长岛港

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班轮可靠性失效

所有以上不利因素都自然而然地在承运商船期可靠性方面表现出来。Sea-Intelligence航运咨询公司的最新全球班轮绩效(GLP)报告指出,今年的全球船期可靠性基本延续了2021年的趋势,在一个小范围内波动,但总体水平略低。

2022年5月,船期可靠性环比上升了2.1个百分点,达到36.4%,但同比仍然下降了2.3个百分点。“这意味着2022年前五个月内的水平都略低于2021年的对应月份,”Sea-Intelligence提到。

船只平均延误时间也在5月再次缩短,为6.17天。“目前的延误时间基本低于7天关口,但如果与过往相比每月仍然处于历史高位,只不过差值大幅减小,”该公司称。

马士基公司的船期可靠性为50.3%,是2022年5月可靠性最高的承运商,其次是汉堡南美船务集团,船期可靠性为43.7%。有六家承运商的船期可靠性处于30-40%区间,六家承运商的船期可靠性处于20-30%区间。

经济阴影继续扩大

降低需求是解决供应链问题的最直接方法,从而改善承运商的表现,但对于业内大多数承运商而言是难以下咽的苦果。越来越多的证据表明经济衰退正在发生。

世界银行预测,2022年,全球贸易同比增长速度将下降到4%,而全球发达经济体的经济增长率将从2021年的5.1%下降到2022年的2.6%。对于新兴经济体和发展中经济体,增长率预计将从2021年的6.6%下降到2022年的3.4%。

2022年,美国经济甚至可能发生衰退。6月,美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔指出了衰退的“可能性”,而野村证券的分析师称美国正在“走向虚无”,第四季度“极有可能”发生轻微的衰退。

贸易受到的影响已经开始变得明显。疫情期间,因为服务活动受到限制而且政策支持力度加大,耐用品消费额大幅上升,超出了近期趋势。然而,野村证券称,迅速上升的利率和恶化的经济状况导致耐用品支出回落,而且这个趋势很可能在2022年剩余时间和2023年持续下去。

“尤其是,耐用品消费与住房销售在一定程度上是相互关联的,而最近住房购买力的下降有可能对耐用品消费造成显著影响,”该公司称。

野村证券目前预计,2021年全年和2022年上半年季度环比增幅显著的美国进口额将开始下降,直至2023年第三季度。

在中国,有越来越多的证据表明制造业和新增出口订单正在减少。特别是由于习近平主席实行的严格封控政策,导致世界银行将中国实际GDP增长预测下调到4.3%,而政府设定的目标是5.5%,去年增长率为8.1%。

在欧洲,几乎没有经济好转的迹象,俄乌战争将产生深远的影响。标普全球6月采购经理人指数调查数据表明,第二季度末,由于生产水平在过去两年内首次下降,欧元区制造业经济处于低位。总新增业务量和出口订单总量均下降,而企业信心下滑到过去25个月内的最低水平。

随着需求减少,由于各公司将重点放在未交付订单上,整个疫情期间显著增加的积压工作量也在过去近两年内首次下降。“各公司称,由于物价上涨和经济前景不明朗,客户在支出方面更加谨慎,因此需求开始疲软,”S&P全球市场情报首席商业经济学家Chris Williamson说道。

由于产量和销量低于预期,原料库存和未出售存货均有所增加,Williamson称这种衰退趋势“似乎注定将在未来几个月内增强”。

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接下来会发生什么?

Sea-Intelligence咨询服务-全球供应链副总裁Bjorn Vang Jensen曾经预测,集装箱航线目前的繁荣“很可能将在2023年第三季度前后结束”,除非发生全球经济衰退。然而,他说,即使集装箱市场由于重大经济萎缩发生急剧衰退,承运商也不可能让费率回到注定亏损的水平――尽管运费费率不可避免地会下降。“牛顿第三定律将一如既往地发挥作用,”他说道。

DGF海运部全球主管Dominique von Orelli补充道,“全球经济需要进行一次重大修正,才能完全解决业内集装箱航线船期的可靠性问题。根据目前的预测,这种情况似乎不太可能发生。我预计,到今年第三季度及之后,供应链取得成功和连贯性的关键在于灵活变通。”

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受疫情的持续影响,中国出口增速放缓

受疫情的持续影响,中国7月份的工厂活动意外减少。根据中国国家统计局的数据,今年官方制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)从6月份的50.2%降至7月份的49.0%,新订单和产量均出现下滑。部分原因是,深圳和天津的主要产区爆发了新冠疫情,随之而来的防疫封控措施打断了制造业的生产计划。

而且在过去几个星期,因为中国在台湾海峡进行实弹军事演习,全球航运也受到了影响。

美国港口运营状况改善, 但拥堵问题仍未解决

进入2022年,美国西海岸港口的拥堵状况已经得到明显缓解,尤其是拥堵情况曾经最为严重的两个北美主要门户:洛杉矶港和长滩港。

即便如此,美国港口的整体拥堵情况与年初相比并没有太大改善,因为拥堵的压力已转移到墨西哥湾和东海岸的港口。7月下旬,在美国各港口等待的船只数量超过150艘,其中等待的船只数量最多的港口分别是佐治亚州萨凡纳港、纽约-新泽西港、休斯顿港。由于大多数发货人为了避免货物在西海岸港口遭到拖延,纷纷改变原来的运输方案,导致今年美东港口的进口量创历史新高,造成了严重的拥堵问题。

航运公司的船期可靠性急剧下滑。根据Sea-Intelligence的数据,6月份东海岸服务的船期可靠性仅为18.7%,而迟到船舶的平均延误时间为9天。

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随着疫情封锁期间需求量减少,空运运力回升,即将到来的旺季和经济前景将面临更多的不确定性。

航空货运市场继续疲软,表现为运力增强但需求低迷,但即使腹舱运力已经恢复,总体状况仍没有发生太大变化。

DGF空运部全球主管Thomas Mack预计今年晚些时候航空货运市场将发生紧缩,并敦促业界随着旺季的临近要保持谨慎。

“今年6月和7月,全世界获得了一些喘息的空间,而我们预计今年旺季期间需求量也不会激增,”他说,还提到DHL的《7月航空货运行业状况报告》预测未来几个月内各贸易航线的需求量将持续呈现疲软态势,尤其是从亚洲到美国和欧洲的航线。

如果今年晚些时候经济不利因素能够缓解,那么仍有充足的市场回升空间――而且是很大的空间。

CLIVE数据服务公司称,由于俄乌战争、通胀率高涨、股市下跌和中国新冠肺炎疫情限制措施影响了企业信心和运输水平,今年5月航空货运市场总容量同比下降了8%。6月航空货运市场总容量的发展轨迹与之类似,同比下降了8%,与2019年6月相比下降了7%。

亚太航空公司协会总干事Subhas Menon先生称,经过2021年的增长之后,航空货运需求现在面临更多挑战,其中“由于全球经济前景越来越不明朗,出口订单在企业信心水平下降的驱动下面临下行压力”。

DGF亚太区首席执行官Kelvin Leung指出,除中国持续的新冠肺炎疫情限制措施外,通胀的压力也让业界谨慎看待2022年下半年的市场前景。“欧洲能源危机和劳动力短缺等持续性问题将继续对供应链造成影响,给未来几个月带来了很大的不确定性,”他补充道。

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运力增加

值得乐观的是,随着腹舱空间回归市场――虽然运力仍低于疫情前水平,货运选择在增多。2022年6月可用运力同比增长了6%。这是因为随着世界各地解除出行限制,更多的夏季客运航班进入市场。然而,总运力仍比2019年6月低11%。

根据《7月DHL航空货运市场最新消息》,虽然7月总运力同比增长18%,但客运运力与疫情前的2019年7月相比低了近19%。

脆弱的平衡

CLIVE称,今年6月,运力增加和经济状况的恶化压低了运费,尤其是北大西洋地区的费率在过去三个月内下降了30%。《7月DHL航空货运市场最新消息》也提到,今年6月的总体货物空运费仍比2019年6月高出120%,比2021年6月高出23%。

CLIVE公司创始人、Xeneta首席空运官Niall van de Wouw说道,虽然今年夏天运力有所提高,但疲软的大西洋市场甚至可能给从亚洲到美国和欧洲的航线造成更大的影响,因为如果承运商将运力从大西洋航线转移出来,那么从亚洲到美国和欧洲航线上的航班就会“相对饱和”。

“承运商会将他们的货机部署到亚太地区、非洲或南美洲的其他市场吗?可以看到市场上一些货机已经经历了重新部署,”van de Wouw说道。

“但即使是在跨大西洋贸易路线上仍然存在舱位短缺的情况。而从全球来看,主舱运力需求仍然较为旺盛,”他补充道。

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费率为何下降

Stifel公司全球物流和未来出行股权研究部主管和高级分析师Bruce Chan在提交给波罗的海交易所的一份报告中承认,Stifel曾预测运费将在6月上涨。在解释费率为何下降时,他提到了四个因素。

首先,本月燃油价格稳步下降,削弱了基本费率的上涨势头。

其次,第三季度一般是第二慢的航空货运季节,“在节假日高峰来临前,我们正在进入正常的夏末平静期”,因此费率下降在一定程度上可能是季节性的。

“第三个可能的原因是,中国解除封控后制造业恢复产能的速度比我们预期的更缓慢,之前如此,之后一段时间也将如此,”Chan说道。

最后,Chan认为,也存在从长期来看需求开始放缓的可能性。“我们看到任何迹象暗示经济已经开始衰退了吗?”他补充道。“在我们看来,航空货运数量和空运费很可能是一个先导指标,但我们没有明确的证据来支持这个论点,”Chan说道。

例如,2022年第一季度美国年化GDP下降了1.6%,但失业率和绝对消费支出数据较为坚挺,而且美国存货销售比仍然接近历史最低水平。

“我们没有也不能低估最后一种情形的可能性。而且,虽然我们预计2023年的某个时候会发生更大范围的经济放缓,但我们认为目前影响费率的因素是短期性的,”Chan补充道。

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经济形势恶化

产品价格上涨,经济增长速度放缓,经济预期自然不会乐观。7月,国际货币基金组织(IMF)将2022年全球GDP增长预期下调至3.2%,比今年4月发布的预期又下降了0.4个百分点。

国际货币基金组织还将2023年全球经济增长预期调整至2.9%,比之前的预测下降了0.7个百分点。

在货运需求方面,国际货币基金组织进一步大幅下调对发达国家(许多集装箱产品的大买家)的预期。美国今年的经济增长预期被下调至2.3%,而4月份发布的预期为3.7%,美国2023年的增长预期也从此前的2.3%下调为仅1.0%。

德国作为欧洲最大的经济体,其2023年GDP增长预期被大幅下调1.9个百分点,预计增速为0.8%。国际货币基金组织还下调了整个欧洲2023年的经济增长预期,减少1.1个百分点,预计增速为1.2%。

受上述预期下调影响,今年全球商品和服务贸易预期增长4.1%,比国际货币基金组织4月份发布的预期降低了0.9个百分点。

集装箱运费下跌

由于宏观经济遭遇强劲逆风,许多主要贸易经济体预计将出现经济衰退,因此最近几周中国出口往程航线上的集装箱即期运费持续下跌。不过,虽然今年运费连续回落,但是价格依然高企。许多航线上的运费仍比疫情前的水平高出三到四倍。

虽然价格利好仍然存在,为阻止“跌跌不休”的运费,各运输企业已经开始取消许多船运航班

DHL Global Forwarding海运业务全球负责人Dominique von Orelli表示,各国央行控制通货膨胀和限制任何重大经济萎缩的速度,在很大程度上会影响海运价格的波动。

“显然,为了维持亚洲到欧美的主要航线以及其他贸易航线的集装箱舱位供需平衡,运输企业会继续取消船运航班。”他还补充道,“也就是说,即使经济的发展如预期的那般不乐观,集装箱市场仍可能相对紧张。目前,我们正在为所有可能发生的事情做准备,同时敦促我们的客户做好同样的准备。”

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            [field_data_translated] => 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
        )

    [7] => stdClass Object
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            [field_data] => <p>Trade is still growing, albeit at a more sluggish pace, as those in the business of moving cargo across international borders continue to fight fires old and new. </p><p>Economists and analysts have now largely converged on the fact that the global economy is slowing down. Equally, most agree that some countries will almost certainly turn recessionary in the coming quarters.</p>
<p>Ocean container markets are not quite as taut as they have been for the last two years under Covid-19. But the northern hemisphere summer is still proving challenging for ocean shipping stakeholders as a slew of new and re-occurring supply chain disruptions blight the best laid plans.</p>
<p>“Forwarders are used to managing crises and finding solutions to ensure customers’ businesses run smoothly,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific. “Covid-19 has seen those challenges increase and this summer has seen no let-up.&#8221;</p>
<p>“There are concerning economic signs, but we are still seeing green shoots that the freight pipeline remains healthy, even though volumes might be levelling off from Covid-19 peaks and returning to more historically normal levels,” added Leung.</p>
<h2>Summer sun turning up the heat in Europe supply chain</h2>
<p>Across Europe, sizzling temperatures throughout summer have left the continent’s rivers dangerously low. The Danube River, Europe’s longest, was barely navigable for barge traffic by mid-August. At the same juncture, the Rhine, a key industrial artery, was all but closed to freight at some sections as <a href="https://theloadstar.com/rhine-closes-to-barge-traffic-with-water-depth-set-to-hit-record-lows/">water levels fell to historic lows</a>.</p>
<p>European ports have also been hit by strike action. <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/16/the-us-supply-chain-is-now-facing-two-trade-hurdles.html">Negotiations between unions and ports operators in Germany</a> are ongoing while in the UK workers at the ports of Liverpool and Felixstowe have <a href="https://theloadstar.com/liverpool-dockers-vote-to-strike-over-pay-as-stoppage-at-felixstowe-looms/">announced strikes</a> in August.</p>
<p>The lack of barge shipping options is piling more pressure on already stretched European rail and road networks.</p>
<p><strong>RELATED ARTICLES</strong></p><p><a href="https://lot.dhl.com/potential-economic-headwinds-add-stress-to-supply-chain/"><figure><img src="https://lot.dhl.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/potential-economic-headwinds-add-stress-to-supply-chain-key-image.jpg"/></figure></a><br/><a href="https://lot.dhl.com/potential-economic-headwinds-add-stress-to-supply-chain/"><strong>Potential economic headwinds add stress to supply chain</strong></a><br/>Despite softened rates from a Q2 slowdown, uncertainties loom heavily.</p><h2>China exports slowed by ongoing pandemic restrictions</h2>
<p>In China, factory activity unexpectedly shrank in July as ongoing Covid-19 outbreaks impacted operations. The official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to 49.0 in July, from 50.2 in June, with new orders and output both registering declines, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics. In part, this is because <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jul/31/china-factory-activity-shrinks-amid-covid-disruption-petrol-coal-metals">fresh Covid-19 lockdowns in key production regions</a> around Shenzhen in the south and Tianjin in the north have disrupted manufacturing.</p>
<p>Global shipping has also suffered <a href="https://www.freightwaves.com/news/saber-rattling-in-taiwan-strait-stokes-new-supply-chain-threat">disruptions in recent weeks</a> as China has conducted live-fire military exercises in the Taiwan Strait.</p>
<h2>Improved U.S. port situations, but congestion remains</h2>
<p>Congestion at U.S. West Coast ports, particularly the Los Angeles and Long Beach facilities which act as the main gateway to North America, has improved through 2022.</p>
<p>Even so, overall U.S. port congestion is not seeing much improvement from the start of the year as congestion has instead shifted to the Gulf and East coast ports. <a href="https://www.freightwaves.com/news/traffic-jam-of-waiting-container-ships-is-now-as-bad-as-ever">Over 150 ships were waiting off U.S. ports</a> in late July with Savannah, Georgia, New York, New Jersey and Houston among the worst performers. The congestion is the result of record high imports to the U.S. East Coast this year as shippers have sought to avoid delays on the West Coast.</p>
<p>Carrier schedule reliability has plummeted as a result. In June schedule reliability on East Coast services was just 18.7 percent, while vessels arriving late suffered an average delay of nine days, according to Sea-Intelligence.</p>
<p><strong>RELATED ARTICLES</strong></p><p><a href="https://lot.dhl.com/cautious-approach-peak-season-despite-brief-respite/"><figure><img src="https://lot.dhl.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/cautious-approach-peak-season-despite-brief-respite-key-image.jpg"/></figure></a><br/><a href="https://lot.dhl.com/cautious-approach-peak-season-despite-brief-respite/"><strong>Adopt cautious approach ahead of peak season despite brief respite</strong></a><br/>While air capacity saw some return with reduced demand from lockdowns, the approaching peak season and economic outlook spell further uncertainty.</p><h2>Economic deterioration</h2>
<p>Rising prices of many products alongside slowing economic growth are, of course, dampening economic forecasts. In July, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgraded its outlook, forecasting global GDP growth of 3.2 percent this year, a cut of 0.4 percentage points from its April forecast.</p>
<p>The forecast for annual global growth in 2023 was also revised, down 0.7 percentage points to just 2.9 percent.</p>
<p>In terms of freight demand, IMF forecasts for advanced countries – the biggest buyers of many containerised products – were cut even more aggressively. The U.S. economy is now forecast by the IMF to grow 2.3 percent this year (versus a forecast of 3.7 percent in April) and just one percent in 2023 (down from 2.3 percent).</p>
<p>Europe’s biggest economy, Germany, saw a huge 1.9 percentage point downgrade to its GDP growth forecast for 2023 when 0.8 percent growth is now expected. Overall, Europe saw 1.1 percentage point cut to its growth forecast for 2023 when GDP is expected to expand by 1.2 percent.</p>
<p>All of which translates into global trade in goods and services expanding 4.1 percent this year, down 0.9 percentage points from the IMF’s April trade forecast.</p>
<h2>Box rates stumble</h2>
<p>With macroeconomic headwinds strong and recessions now being forecast for many leading trading economies, it is perhaps unsurprising that container spot freight rates have been falling consistently in recent weeks on headhaul routes out of China. However, although freight rates have fallen a long way this year, this is <a href="https://www.freightwaves.com/news/no-precipitous-plunge-in-container-shipping-rates-just-orderly-decline">no precipitous plunge</a>. Freight rates on many lanes are still three to four times higher than pre-pandemic levels.</p>
<p>Even so, <a href="https://theloadstar.com/more-blank-sailings-on-the-cards-as-ocean-spot-rates-continue-to-tumble/">carriers have started blanking more sailings</a> in a bid to stop further freight rate slides.</p>
<p>Dominique von Orelli, Global Head, Ocean Freight, DHL Global Forwarding, said much now depends on how quickly central banks can control inflation and limit any major economic contractions.</p>
<p>“It’s clear that carriers will continue to void sailings to maintain the container slot supply-demand balance on key lanes out of Asia to Europe and the US, and also on other trade lanes,” he added. “This means container markets will likely remain relatively tight even if the negative economic forecasts are proven correct. We’re planning for all eventualities and urging customers to do likewise.”</p>

            [field_data_translated] => <p>旧火未灭，新火又起，跨国航运公司忙着“救火”，无暇他顾，贸易虽有增长，但是速度较慢。 </p><p>目前，经济学家和分析师基本同意，全球经济正在放缓。同样地，其中大部分人预计，未来几个季度内，一些国家的经济几乎肯定会陷入衰退。</p>
<p>过去两年，受新冠疫情的影响，海运集装箱市场运力失衡，而今年港口运转逐渐恢复常态。不过事实证明，对于海运利益相关者而言，今年夏季的北半球海运仍充满了挑战，无论他们的计划做得多么周密详细，各种新的、重复发生的供应链中断问题都会把他们的计划打乱。</p>
<p>“为保证客户业务平稳运行，货运代理商习惯于进行危机管理，寻求各种解决方案。”DHL Global Forwarding亚太区首席执行官Kelvin Leung表示，“新冠疫情带来了更多的挑战，今年夏天也不例外。”</p>
<p>Leung还补充道：“虽然目前的经济迹象不容乐观，但是我们仍能在货运渠道捕捉到一些好的迹象，即使货运量可能会从新冠疫情时期的峰值回落到平稳状态，再进一步恢复到历史正常水平。”</p>
<h2><strong>欧洲供应链受炎炎夏日“烤”验</strong></h2>
<p>今年夏天，热浪肆虐，欧洲大陆主要河流干涸，水位大幅下降。到8月中旬，在欧洲最长的河流——多瑙河上，驳船几乎无法通航。与此同时，由于<u><a href="https://theloadstar.com/rhine-closes-to-barge-traffic-with-water-depth-set-to-hit-record-lows/">水位降至历史低位</a></u>，重要的工业大动脉——莱茵河的某些河段也几乎无法输送货物。</p>
<p>欧洲各港口也发生了罢工事件。<u><a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/16/the-us-supply-chain-is-now-facing-two-trade-hurdles.html">德国工会和德国港口运营商之间</a></u>仍在谈判，而英国利物浦和费利克斯托港口的工人也宣布将在8月举行大规模<u><a href="https://theloadstar.com/liverpool-dockers-vote-to-strike-over-pay-as-stoppage-at-felixstowe-looms/">罢工</a></u>。</p>
<p>对于本已捉襟见肘的欧洲铁路和公路网而言，驳船无法通行无异于雪上加霜。</p>
<p><strong>RELATED ARTICLES</strong></p><p><a href="https://lot.dhl.com/zh-hans/potential-economic-headwinds-add-stress-to-supply-chain/"><figure><img src="https://lot.dhl.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/potential-economic-headwinds-add-stress-to-supply-chain-key-image.jpg"/></figure></a><br/><a href="https://lot.dhl.com/zh-hans/potential-economic-headwinds-add-stress-to-supply-chain/"><strong>潜在经济逆风导致供应链压力增加</strong></a><br/>尽管第二季度经济放缓导致费率疲软，不确定因素仍在大举逼近。</p><h2><strong>受疫情的持续影响，中国出口增速放缓</strong></h2>
<p>受疫情的持续影响，中国7月份的工厂活动意外减少。根据中国国家统计局的数据，今年官方制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）从6月份的50.2%降至7月份的49.0%，新订单和产量均出现下滑。部分原因是，深圳和天津的<u><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jul/31/china-factory-activity-shrinks-amid-covid-disruption-petrol-coal-metals">主要产区爆发了新冠疫情</a></u>，随之而来的防疫封控措施打断了制造业的生产计划。</p>
<p>而且在<u><a href="https://www.freightwaves.com/news/saber-rattling-in-taiwan-strait-stokes-new-supply-chain-threat">过去几个星期</a></u>，因为中国在台湾海峡进行实弹军事演习，全球航运也受到了影响。</p>
<h2><strong>美国港口运营状况改善， 但拥堵问题仍未解决</strong></h2>
<p>进入2022年，美国西海岸港口的拥堵状况已经得到明显缓解，尤其是拥堵情况曾经最为严重的两个北美主要门户：洛杉矶港和长滩港。</p>
<p>即便如此，美国港口的整体拥堵情况与年初相比并没有太大改善，因为拥堵的压力已转移到墨西哥湾和东海岸的港口。7月下旬，在<u><a href="https://www.freightwaves.com/news/traffic-jam-of-waiting-container-ships-is-now-as-bad-as-ever">美国各港口等待的船只数量超过150艘</a></u>，其中等待的船只数量最多的港口分别是佐治亚州萨凡纳港、纽约-新泽西港、休斯顿港。由于大多数发货人为了避免货物在西海岸港口遭到拖延，纷纷改变原来的运输方案，导致今年美东港口的进口量创历史新高，造成了严重的拥堵问题。</p>
<p>航运公司的船期可靠性急剧下滑。根据Sea-Intelligence的数据，6月份东海岸服务的船期可靠性仅为18.7%，而迟到船舶的平均延误时间为9天。</p>
<p><strong>RELATED ARTICLES</strong></p><p><a href="https://lot.dhl.com/zh-hans/cautious-approach-peak-season-despite-brief-respite/"><figure><img src="https://lot.dhl.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/cautious-approach-peak-season-despite-brief-respite-key-image.jpg"/></figure></a><br/><a href="https://lot.dhl.com/zh-hans/cautious-approach-peak-season-despite-brief-respite/"><strong>尽管得到片刻喘息，旺季来临前仍须保持谨慎</strong></a><br/>随着疫情封锁期间需求量减少，空运运力回升，即将到来的旺季和经济前景将面临更多的不确定性。</p><h2><strong>经济形势恶化</strong></h2>
<p>产品价格上涨，经济增长速度放缓，经济预期自然不会乐观。7月，国际货币基金组织（IMF）将2022年全球GDP增长预期下调至3.2%，比今年4月发布的预期又下降了0.4个百分点。</p>
<p>国际货币基金组织还将2023年全球经济增长预期调整至2.9%，比之前的预测下降了0.7个百分点。</p>
<p>在货运需求方面，国际货币基金组织进一步大幅下调对发达国家（许多集装箱产品的大买家）的预期。美国今年的经济增长预期被下调至2.3%，而4月份发布的预期为3.7%，美国2023年的增长预期也从此前的2.3%下调为仅1.0%。</p>
<p>德国作为欧洲最大的经济体，其2023年GDP增长预期被大幅下调1.9个百分点，预计增速为0.8%。国际货币基金组织还下调了整个欧洲2023年的经济增长预期，减少1.1个百分点，预计增速为1.2%。</p>
<p>受上述预期下调影响，今年全球商品和服务贸易预期增长4.1%，比国际货币基金组织4月份发布的预期降低了0.9个百分点。</p>
<h2><strong>集装箱运费下跌</strong></h2>
<p>由于宏观经济遭遇强劲逆风，许多主要贸易经济体预计将出现经济衰退，因此最近几周中国出口往程航线上的集装箱即期运费持续下跌。不过，虽然今年运费连续回落，但是<u><a href="https://www.freightwaves.com/news/no-precipitous-plunge-in-container-shipping-rates-just-orderly-decline">价格依然高企</a></u>。许多航线上的运费仍比疫情前的水平高出三到四倍。</p>
<p>虽然价格利好仍然存在，为阻止“跌跌不休”的运费，<u><a href="https://theloadstar.com/more-blank-sailings-on-the-cards-as-ocean-spot-rates-continue-to-tumble/">各运输企业已经开始取消许多船运航班</a></u>。</p>
<p>DHL Global Forwarding海运业务全球负责人Dominique von Orelli表示，各国央行控制通货膨胀和限制任何重大经济萎缩的速度，在很大程度上会影响海运价格的波动。</p>
<p>“显然，为了维持亚洲到欧美的主要航线以及其他贸易航线的集装箱舱位供需平衡，运输企业会继续取消船运航班。”他还补充道，“也就是说，即使经济的发展如预期的那般不乐观，集装箱市场仍可能相对紧张。目前，我们正在为所有可能发生的事情做准备，同时敦促我们的客户做好同样的准备。”</p>

        )

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            [field_data] => bXVsdGlwbGUtZGlzcnVwdGlvbnMtcHV0dGluZy1wcmVzc3VyZS1vbi1zdXBwbHktY2hhaW4tc2luZ2xlLWNvbHVtbg==
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            [field_data] => bXVsdGlwbGUtZGlzcnVwdGlvbnMtcHV0dGluZy1wcmVzc3VyZS1vbi1zdXBwbHktY2hhaW4ta2V5LWltYWdl
            [field_data_translated] => bXVsdGlwbGUtZGlzcnVwdGlvbnMtcHV0dGluZy1wcmVzc3VyZS1vbi1zdXBwbHktY2hhaW4ta2V5LWltYWdl
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)
	
		Array
(
    [Trade is growing at a sluggish pace as cargo movers across international borders continue to fight fires.] => 跨国航运公司忙着“救火”,贸易增长速度缓慢。
    [[]] => 
    [Multiple disruptions putting pressure on supply chain] => 供应链连连中断,压力攀升
    [Trade is still growing, albeit at a more sluggish pace, as those in the business of moving cargo across international borders continue to fight fires old and new.] => 旧火未灭,新火又起,跨国航运公司忙着“救火”,无暇他顾,贸易虽有增长,但是速度较慢。
    [China exports slowed by ongoing pandemic restrictions
In China, factory activity unexpectedly shrank in July as ongoing Covid-19 outbreaks impacted operations. The official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to 49.0 in July, from 50.2 in June, with new orders and output both registering declines, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics. In part, this is because fresh Covid-19 lockdowns in key production regions around Shenzhen in the south and Tianjin in the north have disrupted manufacturing.

Global shipping has also suffered disruptions in recent weeks as China has conducted live-fire military exercises in the Taiwan Strait.
Improved U.S. port situations, but congestion remains
Congestion at U.S. West Coast ports, particularly the Los Angeles and Long Beach facilities which act as the main gateway to North America, has improved through 2022.

Even so, overall U.S. port congestion is not seeing much improvement from the start of the year as congestion has instead shifted to the Gulf and East coast ports. Over 150 ships were waiting off U.S. ports in late July with Savannah, Georgia, New York, New Jersey and Houston among the worst performers. The congestion is the result of record high imports to the U.S. East Coast this year as shippers have sought to avoid delays on the West Coast.

Carrier schedule reliability has plummeted as a result. In June schedule reliability on East Coast services was just 18.7 percent, while vessels arriving late suffered an average delay of nine days, according to Sea-Intelligence.] => 

受疫情的持续影响,中国出口增速放缓

受疫情的持续影响,中国7月份的工厂活动意外减少。根据中国国家统计局的数据,今年官方制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)从6月份的50.2%降至7月份的49.0%,新订单和产量均出现下滑。部分原因是,深圳和天津的主要产区爆发了新冠疫情,随之而来的防疫封控措施打断了制造业的生产计划。 而且在过去几个星期,因为中国在台湾海峡进行实弹军事演习,全球航运也受到了影响。

美国港口运营状况改善, 但拥堵问题仍未解决

进入2022年,美国西海岸港口的拥堵状况已经得到明显缓解,尤其是拥堵情况曾经最为严重的两个北美主要门户:洛杉矶港和长滩港。 即便如此,美国港口的整体拥堵情况与年初相比并没有太大改善,因为拥堵的压力已转移到墨西哥湾和东海岸的港口。7月下旬,在美国各港口等待的船只数量超过150艘,其中等待的船只数量最多的港口分别是佐治亚州萨凡纳港、纽约-新泽西港、休斯顿港。由于大多数发货人为了避免货物在西海岸港口遭到拖延,纷纷改变原来的运输方案,导致今年美东港口的进口量创历史新高,造成了严重的拥堵问题。 航运公司的船期可靠性急剧下滑。根据Sea-Intelligence的数据,6月份东海岸服务的船期可靠性仅为18.7%,而迟到船舶的平均延误时间为9天。 [Economic deterioration Rising prices of many products alongside slowing economic growth are, of course, dampening economic forecasts. In July, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgraded its outlook, forecasting global GDP growth of 3.2 percent this year, a cut of 0.4 percentage points from its April forecast. The forecast for annual global growth in 2023 was also revised, down 0.7 percentage points to just 2.9 percent. In terms of freight demand, IMF forecasts for advanced countries – the biggest buyers of many containerised products – were cut even more aggressively. The U.S. economy is now forecast by the IMF to grow 2.3 percent this year (versus a forecast of 3.7 percent in April) and just one percent in 2023 (down from 2.3 percent). Europe’s biggest economy, Germany, saw a huge 1.9 percentage point downgrade to its GDP growth forecast for 2023 when 0.8 percent growth is now expected. Overall, Europe saw 1.1 percentage point cut to its growth forecast for 2023 when GDP is expected to expand by 1.2 percent. All of which translates into global trade in goods and services expanding 4.1 percent this year, down 0.9 percentage points from the IMF’s April trade forecast. Box rates stumble With macroeconomic headwinds strong and recessions now being forecast for many leading trading economies, it is perhaps unsurprising that container spot freight rates have been falling consistently in recent weeks on headhaul routes out of China. However, although freight rates have fallen a long way this year, this is no precipitous plunge. Freight rates on many lanes are still three to four times higher than pre-pandemic levels. Even so, carriers have started blanking more sailings in a bid to stop further freight rate slides. Dominique von Orelli, Global Head, Ocean Freight, DHL Global Forwarding, said much now depends on how quickly central banks can control inflation and limit any major economic contractions. “It’s clear that carriers will continue to void sailings to maintain the container slot supply-demand balance on key lanes out of Asia to Europe and the US, and also on other trade lanes,” he added. “This means container markets will likely remain relatively tight even if the negative economic forecasts are proven correct. We’re planning for all eventualities and urging customers to do likewise.”] =>

经济形势恶化

产品价格上涨,经济增长速度放缓,经济预期自然不会乐观。7月,国际货币基金组织(IMF)将2022年全球GDP增长预期下调至3.2%,比今年4月发布的预期又下降了0.4个百分点。 国际货币基金组织还将2023年全球经济增长预期调整至2.9%,比之前的预测下降了0.7个百分点。 在货运需求方面,国际货币基金组织进一步大幅下调对发达国家(许多集装箱产品的大买家)的预期。美国今年的经济增长预期被下调至2.3%,而4月份发布的预期为3.7%,美国2023年的增长预期也从此前的2.3%下调为仅1.0%。 德国作为欧洲最大的经济体,其2023年GDP增长预期被大幅下调1.9个百分点,预计增速为0.8%。国际货币基金组织还下调了整个欧洲2023年的经济增长预期,减少1.1个百分点,预计增速为1.2%。 受上述预期下调影响,今年全球商品和服务贸易预期增长4.1%,比国际货币基金组织4月份发布的预期降低了0.9个百分点。

集装箱运费下跌

由于宏观经济遭遇强劲逆风,许多主要贸易经济体预计将出现经济衰退,因此最近几周中国出口往程航线上的集装箱即期运费持续下跌。不过,虽然今年运费连续回落,但是价格依然高企。许多航线上的运费仍比疫情前的水平高出三到四倍。 虽然价格利好仍然存在,为阻止“跌跌不休”的运费,各运输企业已经开始取消许多船运航班。 DHL Global Forwarding海运业务全球负责人Dominique von Orelli表示,各国央行控制通货膨胀和限制任何重大经济萎缩的速度,在很大程度上会影响海运价格的波动。 “显然,为了维持亚洲到欧美的主要航线以及其他贸易航线的集装箱舱位供需平衡,运输企业会继续取消船运航班。”他还补充道,“也就是说,即使经济的发展如预期的那般不乐观,集装箱市场仍可能相对紧张。目前,我们正在为所有可能发生的事情做准备,同时敦促我们的客户做好同样的准备。” [Economists and analysts have now largely converged on the fact that the global economy is slowing down. Equally, most agree that some countries will almost certainly turn recessionary in the coming quarters. Ocean container markets are not quite as taut as they have been for the last two years under Covid-19. But the northern hemisphere summer is still proving challenging for ocean shipping stakeholders as a slew of new and re-occurring supply chain disruptions blight the best laid plans. “Forwarders are used to managing crises and finding solutions to ensure customers’ businesses run smoothly,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific. “Covid-19 has seen those challenges increase and this summer has seen no let-up." “There are concerning economic signs, but we are still seeing green shoots that the freight pipeline remains healthy, even though volumes might be levelling off from Covid-19 peaks and returning to more historically normal levels,” added Leung. Summer sun turning up the heat in Europe supply chain Across Europe, sizzling temperatures throughout summer have left the continent’s rivers dangerously low. The Danube River, Europe’s longest, was barely navigable for barge traffic by mid-August. At the same juncture, the Rhine, a key industrial artery, was all but closed to freight at some sections as water levels fell to historic lows. European ports have also been hit by strike action. Negotiations between unions and ports operators in Germany are ongoing while in the UK workers at the ports of Liverpool and Felixstowe have announced strikes in August. The lack of barge shipping options is piling more pressure on already stretched European rail and road networks.] => 目前,经济学家和分析师基本同意,全球经济正在放缓。同样地,其中大部分人预计,未来几个季度内,一些国家的经济几乎肯定会陷入衰退。 过去两年,受新冠疫情的影响,海运集装箱市场运力失衡,而今年港口运转逐渐恢复常态。不过事实证明,对于海运利益相关者而言,今年夏季的北半球海运仍充满了挑战,无论他们的计划做得多么周密详细,各种新的、重复发生的供应链中断问题都会把他们的计划打乱。 “为保证客户业务平稳运行,货运代理商习惯于进行危机管理,寻求各种解决方案。”DHL Global Forwarding亚太区首席执行官Kelvin Leung表示,“新冠疫情带来了更多的挑战,今年夏天也不例外。” Leung还补充道:“虽然目前的经济迹象不容乐观,但是我们仍能在货运渠道捕捉到一些好的迹象,即使货运量可能会从新冠疫情时期的峰值回落到平稳状态,再进一步恢复到历史正常水平。”

欧洲供应链受炎炎夏日“烤”验

今年夏天,热浪肆虐,欧洲大陆主要河流干涸,水位大幅下降。到8月中旬,在欧洲最长的河流——多瑙河上,驳船几乎无法通航。与此同时,由于水位降至历史低位,重要的工业大动脉——莱茵河的某些河段也几乎无法输送货物。 欧洲各港口也发生了罢工事件。德国工会和德国港口运营商之间仍在谈判,而英国利物浦和费利克斯托港口的工人也宣布将在8月举行大规模罢工。 对于本已捉襟见肘的欧洲铁路和公路网而言,驳船无法通行无异于雪上加霜。 [wysiwyg] => wysiwyg [outbound_box] => outbound_box [Trade is still growing, albeit at a more sluggish pace, as those in the business of moving cargo across international borders continue to fight fires old and new. Economists and analysts have now largely converged on the fact that the global economy is slowing down. Equally, most agree that some countries will almost certainly turn recessionary in the coming quarters. Ocean container markets are not quite as taut as they have been for the last two years under Covid-19. But the northern hemisphere summer is still proving challenging for ocean shipping stakeholders as a slew of new and re-occurring supply chain disruptions blight the best laid plans. “Forwarders are used to managing crises and finding solutions to ensure customers’ businesses run smoothly,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific. “Covid-19 has seen those challenges increase and this summer has seen no let-up.” “There are concerning economic signs, but we are still seeing green shoots that the freight pipeline remains healthy, even though volumes might be levelling off from Covid-19 peaks and returning to more historically normal levels,” added Leung. Summer sun turning up the heat in Europe supply chain Across Europe, sizzling temperatures throughout summer have left the continent’s rivers dangerously low. The Danube River, Europe’s longest, was barely navigable for barge traffic by mid-August. At the same juncture, the Rhine, a key industrial artery, was all but closed to freight at some sections as water levels fell to historic lows. European ports have also been hit by strike action. Negotiations between unions and ports operators in Germany are ongoing while in the UK workers at the ports of Liverpool and Felixstowe have announced strikes in August. The lack of barge shipping options is piling more pressure on already stretched European rail and road networks. RELATED ARTICLESPotential economic headwinds add stress to supply chainDespite softened rates from a Q2 slowdown, uncertainties loom heavily.China exports slowed by ongoing pandemic restrictions In China, factory activity unexpectedly shrank in July as ongoing Covid-19 outbreaks impacted operations. The official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to 49.0 in July, from 50.2 in June, with new orders and output both registering declines, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics. In part, this is because fresh Covid-19 lockdowns in key production regions around Shenzhen in the south and Tianjin in the north have disrupted manufacturing. Global shipping has also suffered disruptions in recent weeks as China has conducted live-fire military exercises in the Taiwan Strait. Improved U.S. port situations, but congestion remains Congestion at U.S. West Coast ports, particularly the Los Angeles and Long Beach facilities which act as the main gateway to North America, has improved through 2022. Even so, overall U.S. port congestion is not seeing much improvement from the start of the year as congestion has instead shifted to the Gulf and East coast ports. Over 150 ships were waiting off U.S. ports in late July with Savannah, Georgia, New York, New Jersey and Houston among the worst performers. The congestion is the result of record high imports to the U.S. East Coast this year as shippers have sought to avoid delays on the West Coast. Carrier schedule reliability has plummeted as a result. In June schedule reliability on East Coast services was just 18.7 percent, while vessels arriving late suffered an average delay of nine days, according to Sea-Intelligence. RELATED ARTICLESAdopt cautious approach ahead of peak season despite brief respiteWhile air capacity saw some return with reduced demand from lockdowns, the approaching peak season and economic outlook spell further uncertainty.Economic deterioration Rising prices of many products alongside slowing economic growth are, of course, dampening economic forecasts. In July, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgraded its outlook, forecasting global GDP growth of 3.2 percent this year, a cut of 0.4 percentage points from its April forecast. The forecast for annual global growth in 2023 was also revised, down 0.7 percentage points to just 2.9 percent. In terms of freight demand, IMF forecasts for advanced countries – the biggest buyers of many containerised products – were cut even more aggressively. The U.S. economy is now forecast by the IMF to grow 2.3 percent this year (versus a forecast of 3.7 percent in April) and just one percent in 2023 (down from 2.3 percent). Europe’s biggest economy, Germany, saw a huge 1.9 percentage point downgrade to its GDP growth forecast for 2023 when 0.8 percent growth is now expected. Overall, Europe saw 1.1 percentage point cut to its growth forecast for 2023 when GDP is expected to expand by 1.2 percent. All of which translates into global trade in goods and services expanding 4.1 percent this year, down 0.9 percentage points from the IMF’s April trade forecast. Box rates stumble With macroeconomic headwinds strong and recessions now being forecast for many leading trading economies, it is perhaps unsurprising that container spot freight rates have been falling consistently in recent weeks on headhaul routes out of China. However, although freight rates have fallen a long way this year, this is no precipitous plunge. Freight rates on many lanes are still three to four times higher than pre-pandemic levels. Even so, carriers have started blanking more sailings in a bid to stop further freight rate slides. Dominique von Orelli, Global Head, Ocean Freight, DHL Global Forwarding, said much now depends on how quickly central banks can control inflation and limit any major economic contractions. “It’s clear that carriers will continue to void sailings to maintain the container slot supply-demand balance on key lanes out of Asia to Europe and the US, and also on other trade lanes,” he added. “This means container markets will likely remain relatively tight even if the negative economic forecasts are proven correct. We’re planning for all eventualities and urging customers to do likewise.”] =>

旧火未灭,新火又起,跨国航运公司忙着“救火”,无暇他顾,贸易虽有增长,但是速度较慢。

目前,经济学家和分析师基本同意,全球经济正在放缓。同样地,其中大部分人预计,未来几个季度内,一些国家的经济几乎肯定会陷入衰退。

过去两年,受新冠疫情的影响,海运集装箱市场运力失衡,而今年港口运转逐渐恢复常态。不过事实证明,对于海运利益相关者而言,今年夏季的北半球海运仍充满了挑战,无论他们的计划做得多么周密详细,各种新的、重复发生的供应链中断问题都会把他们的计划打乱。

“为保证客户业务平稳运行,货运代理商习惯于进行危机管理,寻求各种解决方案。”DHL Global Forwarding亚太区首席执行官Kelvin Leung表示,“新冠疫情带来了更多的挑战,今年夏天也不例外。”

Leung还补充道:“虽然目前的经济迹象不容乐观,但是我们仍能在货运渠道捕捉到一些好的迹象,即使货运量可能会从新冠疫情时期的峰值回落到平稳状态,再进一步恢复到历史正常水平。”

欧洲供应链受炎炎夏日“烤”验

今年夏天,热浪肆虐,欧洲大陆主要河流干涸,水位大幅下降。到8月中旬,在欧洲最长的河流——多瑙河上,驳船几乎无法通航。与此同时,由于水位降至历史低位,重要的工业大动脉——莱茵河的某些河段也几乎无法输送货物。

欧洲各港口也发生了罢工事件。德国工会和德国港口运营商之间仍在谈判,而英国利物浦和费利克斯托港口的工人也宣布将在8月举行大规模罢工

对于本已捉襟见肘的欧洲铁路和公路网而言,驳船无法通行无异于雪上加霜。

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受疫情的持续影响,中国出口增速放缓

受疫情的持续影响,中国7月份的工厂活动意外减少。根据中国国家统计局的数据,今年官方制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)从6月份的50.2%降至7月份的49.0%,新订单和产量均出现下滑。部分原因是,深圳和天津的主要产区爆发了新冠疫情,随之而来的防疫封控措施打断了制造业的生产计划。

而且在过去几个星期,因为中国在台湾海峡进行实弹军事演习,全球航运也受到了影响。

美国港口运营状况改善, 但拥堵问题仍未解决

进入2022年,美国西海岸港口的拥堵状况已经得到明显缓解,尤其是拥堵情况曾经最为严重的两个北美主要门户:洛杉矶港和长滩港。

即便如此,美国港口的整体拥堵情况与年初相比并没有太大改善,因为拥堵的压力已转移到墨西哥湾和东海岸的港口。7月下旬,在美国各港口等待的船只数量超过150艘,其中等待的船只数量最多的港口分别是佐治亚州萨凡纳港、纽约-新泽西港、休斯顿港。由于大多数发货人为了避免货物在西海岸港口遭到拖延,纷纷改变原来的运输方案,导致今年美东港口的进口量创历史新高,造成了严重的拥堵问题。

航运公司的船期可靠性急剧下滑。根据Sea-Intelligence的数据,6月份东海岸服务的船期可靠性仅为18.7%,而迟到船舶的平均延误时间为9天。

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经济形势恶化

产品价格上涨,经济增长速度放缓,经济预期自然不会乐观。7月,国际货币基金组织(IMF)将2022年全球GDP增长预期下调至3.2%,比今年4月发布的预期又下降了0.4个百分点。

国际货币基金组织还将2023年全球经济增长预期调整至2.9%,比之前的预测下降了0.7个百分点。

在货运需求方面,国际货币基金组织进一步大幅下调对发达国家(许多集装箱产品的大买家)的预期。美国今年的经济增长预期被下调至2.3%,而4月份发布的预期为3.7%,美国2023年的增长预期也从此前的2.3%下调为仅1.0%。

德国作为欧洲最大的经济体,其2023年GDP增长预期被大幅下调1.9个百分点,预计增速为0.8%。国际货币基金组织还下调了整个欧洲2023年的经济增长预期,减少1.1个百分点,预计增速为1.2%。

受上述预期下调影响,今年全球商品和服务贸易预期增长4.1%,比国际货币基金组织4月份发布的预期降低了0.9个百分点。

集装箱运费下跌

由于宏观经济遭遇强劲逆风,许多主要贸易经济体预计将出现经济衰退,因此最近几周中国出口往程航线上的集装箱即期运费持续下跌。不过,虽然今年运费连续回落,但是价格依然高企。许多航线上的运费仍比疫情前的水平高出三到四倍。

虽然价格利好仍然存在,为阻止“跌跌不休”的运费,各运输企业已经开始取消许多船运航班

DHL Global Forwarding海运业务全球负责人Dominique von Orelli表示,各国央行控制通货膨胀和限制任何重大经济萎缩的速度,在很大程度上会影响海运价格的波动。

“显然,为了维持亚洲到欧美的主要航线以及其他贸易航线的集装箱舱位供需平衡,运输企业会继续取消船运航班。”他还补充道,“也就是说,即使经济的发展如预期的那般不乐观,集装箱市场仍可能相对紧张。目前,我们正在为所有可能发生的事情做准备,同时敦促我们的客户做好同样的准备。”

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