Array
(
[derick] => Array
(
[Further disruptions and increased air freight rates are expected as the Ukraine situation evolves.] => 随着乌克兰局势的变化，预计将发生进一步中断和空运运价上涨。
[[]] =>
[Early positives give way to uncertainties for air freight] => Early positives give way to uncertainties for air freight
[Uncertainties from developing situation in Europe
Meanwhile, the situation in Ukraine is also a major shock to the supply chain. The market has lost access to swathes of air space, leading to longer routings. There are also a number of Russian carriers that are no longer active in the market, causing further global capacity headaches in such a tight market.
“The war in Ukraine is another example of an external event of which the air cargo industry has no control over, but which is having a profound impact, as happened with Covid-19,” said Niall van de Wouw, Managing Director of CLIVE Data Services.
Air cargo trucking services might also be affected as numerous Ukrainian drivers - which form an important share of the truck drivers in Europe - have decided to go back to their home country.
“When we consider the recovery of the aviation industry from the pandemic, the return of passengers is still a big question mark. The war in Ukraine presents another big question mark,” added van de Wouw.
Another market factor to consider is the energy price increase, which translates to higher fuel costs. This has in turn led to an increase in fuel surcharges (FSC) and security surcharges (SSC) to cover the higher cost of jet fuel and additional operational costs due to rerouting.
All of this puts upward pressure on rates which is seen on most lanes out of Asia to the U.S. and Europe. Costs have also been rising as carriers introduce a range of war risk surcharges.
“Airspace closures because of the conflict in Ukraine have resulted in a 25 percent drop in direct air cargo capacity between Europe and North East Asia,” notes the March DHL Airfreight State of the Industry report.
The report also noted that additional air cargo capacity to Japan was taken out of the market due to the Ukraine situation. However, freighter capacity on other trade lanes has thus far seen only a minor impact, but space remains very tight.] => 欧洲局势变化带来的不确定性
与此同时，乌克兰局势对供应链也是一个沉重的打击。市场已经无法使用大片空域，导致运输路线变长。还有很多俄罗斯承运商无法在市场中活动，从而在紧缩的市场中进一步导致全球运力紧张。
“与新冠肺炎疫情一样，乌克兰战争是航空货运行业无法控制但会造成深远影响的外部事件的另一个例子，”CLIVE数据服务公司董事总经理Niall van de Wouw说道。
航空货运中的货车运输服务也可能受到大量乌克兰卡车司机决定归国的影响，他们在欧洲货车司机当中占有很大的比重。
“当我们考察航空业从疫情中复苏的问题时，乘客能否回归仍然是一个巨大的问号。乌克兰战争带来了另一个巨大的问号，”van de Wouw补充道。
另一个需要考虑的市场因素是能源价格上涨导致的燃油成本上升。这个问题又导致燃油附加费（FSC）和安全附加费（SSC）增加，以弥补航空燃油的成本上涨和运输路线变更带来的额外运营成本。
所有这些都给运价带来了上涨压力，这一点可以从亚洲到美国和欧洲的大多数航线中看到。随着承运商引入一系列战争险附加费，成本也在不断攀升。
今年3月的敦豪《航空货运行业状况报告》指出，“乌克兰冲突导致的领空封锁，使得欧洲与东北亚之间的直接航空货运能力降低了25％。”
这份报告还提到，由于乌克兰局势，市场已不考虑前往日本的额外航空货运能力。然而，迄今为止，其他贸易路线的货机运力只受到轻微影响，但空间仍然非常紧张。
[Goodbye to normality?
The dual shocks of more lockdowns in China and war in Europe came just as there were signs of normality returning to the market this year. A number of Asian countries have lifted travel and transport restrictions, along with key global markets opening up once more.
The global air cargo market had continued trying to catch up with pre-pandemic levels in February as freight volumes, capacity and load factors stabilised close to 2019’s performance. This was also accompanied by rates also slowly trending downwards, according to the latest data from CLIVE Data Services.
According to analysis by CLIVE, global chargeable air cargo weight in February 2022 was -0.7 percent compared to the pre-Covid-19 level in 2019, and +2.6 percent compared to February 2021. Meanwhile, market capacity for the same period in 2022 stood at -5.4 percent and +6.9 percent compared to 2019 and 2021 figures.
The analyst firm reported that after the peak season in November 2021 and December 2021, quieter market conditions at the start of the year saw overall rates ease for a second consecutive month. “Rates, while still very high, were seen to be slowly winding down in February as capacity returned to the market and the stress on supply chains seen over the past two years began to ease,” it added.
However, the ongoing situation Ukraine means the market will remain uncertain for a while, with the loss of Asia-Europe capacity, overflight issues and higher fuel prices casting a lengthy shadow.
“A fragile global air cargo supply chain is already sensitive to minor shocks. War in Europe and its resulting sanctions could turn the industry upside down once again, just at the time when the Covid-19 impact was looking more under control. We remain in volatile and uncertain times,” said van de Wouw.
Customers are advised to check on the viability of using other routes. “We are monitoring the situation and constantly advising customers on alternative routes to meet their shipping needs,” said Leung.] => 再也无法恢复常态？
中国进一步封锁和欧洲战争的双重冲击正恰发生于在今年市场刚有恢复正常的迹象时。很多亚洲国家已经解除了旅行和运输限制，而且全球主要市场已经重新开放。
CLIVE数据服务公司的最新数据表明，今年2月，随着货运量、运力和载货率接近2019年的水平，全球航空货运市场继续试图达到疫情前的水平。与此同时，运价开始缓慢下降。
根据CLIVE数据服务公司的分析，2022年2月全球收费航空货运量与2019年疫情前水平相比下降了0.7％，与2021年2月相比上升了2.6％。与此同时，2022年同期的市场容量与2019年和2021年相比分别减小了5.4％和增加了6.9％。
该公司称，经过2021年11月和2021年11月旺季之后，在今年年初平静的市场状况下，总体运价连续第二个月下降。“虽然运价仍然很高，但随着市场运力的逐渐恢复和过去两年内供应链压力开始减小，2月运价开始缓慢下降，”该公司补充道。
然而，乌克兰持续的紧张局势意味着市场仍将在一段时期内保持不确定性，而且亚欧运力损失、飞越领空问题和燃油价格上涨给市场前景蒙上了长期阴影。
“脆弱的全球航空货运供应链对轻微冲击已经非常敏感。欧洲战争及其引起的制裁会再次完全颠覆整个行业，而与此同时，新冠肺炎疫情的影响似乎更加可控。我们仍然处在动荡多变的时期，”van de Wouw说道。
建议客户核实采用其他航线的可行性。“我们正在对情况进行监视，而且不断向客户提出替代航线的建议，以便满足他们的航运需求，”Leung说道。
[With parts of China under strict Covid-19 lockdowns, and the evolving situation in Ukraine causing overflight issues as well as bumping up surcharges and fuel costs, the air freight market tightened considerably in March.
Despite a number of bright signs in the early months of this year, further disruptions are now to be expected as geopolitical uncertainty clouds the economic and trading outlook.
Even as some markets in Asia are starting to open up, there are still tremendous operational challenges and capacity remains far lower than pre-pandemic days. This leaves the market open to supply chain disruptions.
“It’s been two years since we really started seeing how this pandemic was impacting global freight markets and the supply side limitations it caused are still pronounced,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.
China’s Covid-19 policy puts a damper on recovery
As this column has recounted previously, China’s severe zero-Covid-19 policy is putting a handbrake on national economic growth, on top of regional and global supply chain efficiency.
A string of extensive lockdowns in southern China in response to an outbreak of the Omicron variant again disrupted ports, airports, manufacturing output and export capacity in early March. Strict rules have since closed Shanghai’s Pudong airport to inbound passenger services for six weeks from 18 March, with flights diverted to 13 other cities in a bid to stop the spread of new Covid-19 cases.
Shenzhen airport, which picks up cargo usually handled at Hong Kong, is also struggling with a surge in Covid-19 cases, which led to the airport’s closure in mid-March.
“While we were expecting some signs of recovery in bellyhold capacity, the reality is that businesses have to be prepared for ever-changing global situations,” added Leung.] => 随着中国部分地区受到严格的疫情封锁、涉及飞越领空问题的乌克兰形势变化以及附加费和燃油成本的上升，航空货运市场在3月份显著紧缩。
尽管今年前几个月有一系列明朗的迹象，但由于地缘政治不确定性给经济和贸易前景蒙上阴影，预计会产生进一步影响。
即使亚洲一些市场开始开放，但仍然存在巨大的运营难题，而且运力远低于疫情前水平。因此，市场随时会受到供应链中断的影响。
“从我们真正开始关注本次疫情对全球货运市场的影响时起已经过去了两年，由此给供应侧带来的制约仍然非常显著，”敦豪全球货运亚太区首席执行官Kelvin Leung说道。
中国抗疫政策给复苏涂上一层灰色
正如先前所述的那样，中国严格的疫情清零政策使国家经济发展陷入停顿状态，还影响了地区和全球供应链的运行效率。
3月初，华南地区为了应对奥密克戎毒株爆发采取了一系列广泛的封锁措施，再次扰乱了港口、机场、制造业产量和出口能力。从3月18日开始，在严格的管控措施下，上海浦东机场的入境旅客服务已经关闭了六周，航班被转移到另外13个城市，以便阻止新新冠肺炎病例的传播。
主要负责处理香港中转货物的深圳机场也在努力应对激增的新冠肺炎病例，导致机场于3月中旬关闭。
“虽然我们预计腹舱运力有一些恢复的迹象，但实际情况是各企业必须为不断变化的全球形势做好准备，”Leung补充道。
[wysiwyg] => wysiwyg
[outbound_box] => outbound_box
[Further disruptions and increased air freight rates are expected as the Ukraine situation evolves. With parts of China under strict Covid-19 lockdowns, and the evolving situation in Ukraine causing overflight issues as well as bumping up surcharges and fuel costs, the air freight market tightened considerably in March.
Despite a number of bright signs in the early months of this year, further disruptions are now to be expected as geopolitical uncertainty clouds the economic and trading outlook.
Even as some markets in Asia are starting to open up, there are still tremendous operational challenges and capacity remains far lower than pre-pandemic days. This leaves the market open to supply chain disruptions.
“It’s been two years since we really started seeing how this pandemic was impacting global freight markets and the supply side limitations it caused are still pronounced,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.
China’s Covid-19 policy puts a damper on recovery
As this column has recounted previously, China’s severe zero-Covid-19 policy is putting a handbrake on national economic growth, on top of regional and global supply chain efficiency.
A string of extensive lockdowns in southern China in response to an outbreak of the Omicron variant again disrupted ports, airports, manufacturing output and export capacity in early March. Strict rules have since closed Shanghai’s Pudong airport to inbound passenger services for six weeks from 18 March, with flights diverted to 13 other cities in a bid to stop the spread of new Covid-19 cases.
Shenzhen airport, which picks up cargo usually handled at Hong Kong, is also struggling with a surge in Covid-19 cases, which led to the airport’s closure in mid-March.
“While we were expecting some signs of recovery in bellyhold capacity, the reality is that businesses have to be prepared for ever-changing global situations,” added Leung.
RELATED ARTICLESChina casts a pall over air cargo capacityFlight cancellations due to Covid-19 outbreaks across various Chinese airports will further impact operations in 2022.Uncertainties from developing situation in Europe
Meanwhile, the situation in Ukraine is also a major shock to the supply chain. The market has lost access to swathes of air space, leading to longer routings. There are also a number of Russian carriers that are no longer active in the market, causing further global capacity headaches in such a tight market.
“The war in Ukraine is another example of an external event of which the air cargo industry has no control over, but which is having a profound impact, as happened with Covid-19,” said Niall van de Wouw, Managing Director of CLIVE Data Services.
Air cargo trucking services might also be affected as numerous Ukrainian drivers – which form an important share of the truck drivers in Europe – have decided to go back to their home country.
“When we consider the recovery of the aviation industry from the pandemic, the return of passengers is still a big question mark. The war in Ukraine presents another big question mark,” added van de Wouw.
Another market factor to consider is the energy price increase, which translates to higher fuel costs. This has in turn led to an increase in fuel surcharges (FSC) and security surcharges (SSC) to cover the higher cost of jet fuel and additional operational costs due to rerouting.
All of this puts upward pressure on rates which is seen on most lanes out of Asia to the U.S. and Europe. Costs have also been rising as carriers introduce a range of war risk surcharges.
“Airspace closures because of the conflict in Ukraine have resulted in a 25 percent drop in direct air cargo capacity between Europe and North East Asia,” notes the March DHL Airfreight State of the Industry report.
The report also noted that additional air cargo capacity to Japan was taken out of the market due to the Ukraine situation. However, freighter capacity on other trade lanes has thus far seen only a minor impact, but space remains very tight.
RELATED ARTICLESScheduling difficulties abound for ocean freightOngoing port congestions and an evolving situation in Ukraine are contributing to further uncertainties.Goodbye to normality?
The dual shocks of more lockdowns in China and war in Europe came just as there were signs of normality returning to the market this year. A number of Asian countries have lifted travel and transport restrictions, along with key global markets opening up once more.
The global air cargo market had continued trying to catch up with pre-pandemic levels in February as freight volumes, capacity and load factors stabilised close to 2019’s performance. This was also accompanied by rates also slowly trending downwards, according to the latest data from CLIVE Data Services.
According to analysis by CLIVE, global chargeable air cargo weight in February 2022 was -0.7 percent compared to the pre-Covid-19 level in 2019, and +2.6 percent compared to February 2021. Meanwhile, market capacity for the same period in 2022 stood at -5.4 percent and +6.9 percent compared to 2019 and 2021 figures.
The analyst firm reported that after the peak season in November 2021 and December 2021, quieter market conditions at the start of the year saw overall rates ease for a second consecutive month. “Rates, while still very high, were seen to be slowly winding down in February as capacity returned to the market and the stress on supply chains seen over the past two years began to ease,” it added.
However, the ongoing situation Ukraine means the market will remain uncertain for a while, with the loss of Asia-Europe capacity, overflight issues and higher fuel prices casting a lengthy shadow.
“A fragile global air cargo supply chain is already sensitive to minor shocks. War in Europe and its resulting sanctions could turn the industry upside down once again, just at the time when the Covid-19 impact was looking more under control. We remain in volatile and uncertain times,” said van de Wouw.
Customers are advised to check on the viability of using other routes. “We are monitoring the situation and constantly advising customers on alternative routes to meet their shipping needs,” said Leung.] =>
[] =>
[early-positives-give-way-uncertainties-air-freight] => early-positives-give-way-uncertainties-air-freight
[AFR-Jan-2022-key-image] => AFR-Jan-2022-key-image
[China casts a pall over air cargo capacity] => China casts a pall over freight
[scheduling-difficulties-ocean-freight-key-image] => scheduling-difficulties-ocean-freight-key-image
[Scheduling difficulties abound for ocean freight] => Scheduling difficulties abound for ocean freight
[early-positives-give-way-uncertainties-air-freight-single-column] => early-positives-give-way-uncertainties-air-freight-single-column
[early-positives-give-way-uncertainties-air-freight-key-image] => early-positives-give-way-uncertainties-air-freight-key-image
)
[$value] => With parts of China under strict Covid-19 lockdowns, and the evolving situation in Ukraine causing overflight issues as well as bumping up surcharges and fuel costs, the air freight market tightened considerably in March.
Despite a number of bright signs in the early months of this year, further disruptions are now to be expected as geopolitical uncertainty clouds the economic and trading outlook.
Even as some markets in Asia are starting to open up, there are still tremendous operational challenges and capacity remains far lower than pre-pandemic days. This leaves the market open to supply chain disruptions.
“It’s been two years since we really started seeing how this pandemic was impacting global freight markets and the supply side limitations it caused are still pronounced,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.
China’s Covid-19 policy puts a damper on recovery
As this column has recounted previously, China’s severe zero-Covid-19 policy is putting a handbrake on national economic growth, on top of regional and global supply chain efficiency.
A string of extensive lockdowns in southern China in response to an outbreak of the Omicron variant again disrupted ports, airports, manufacturing output and export capacity in early March. Strict rules have since closed Shanghai’s Pudong airport to inbound passenger services for six weeks from 18 March, with flights diverted to 13 other cities in a bid to stop the spread of new Covid-19 cases.
Shenzhen airport, which picks up cargo usually handled at Hong Kong, is also struggling with a surge in Covid-19 cases, which led to the airport’s closure in mid-March.
“While we were expecting some signs of recovery in bellyhold capacity, the reality is that businesses have to be prepared for ever-changing global situations,” added Leung.
)
Array
(
[derick] => Array
(
[Further disruptions and increased air freight rates are expected as the Ukraine situation evolves.] => 随着乌克兰局势的变化，预计将发生进一步中断和空运运价上涨。
[[]] =>
[Early positives give way to uncertainties for air freight] => Early positives give way to uncertainties for air freight
[Uncertainties from developing situation in Europe
Meanwhile, the situation in Ukraine is also a major shock to the supply chain. The market has lost access to swathes of air space, leading to longer routings. There are also a number of Russian carriers that are no longer active in the market, causing further global capacity headaches in such a tight market.
“The war in Ukraine is another example of an external event of which the air cargo industry has no control over, but which is having a profound impact, as happened with Covid-19,” said Niall van de Wouw, Managing Director of CLIVE Data Services.
Air cargo trucking services might also be affected as numerous Ukrainian drivers - which form an important share of the truck drivers in Europe - have decided to go back to their home country.
“When we consider the recovery of the aviation industry from the pandemic, the return of passengers is still a big question mark. The war in Ukraine presents another big question mark,” added van de Wouw.
Another market factor to consider is the energy price increase, which translates to higher fuel costs. This has in turn led to an increase in fuel surcharges (FSC) and security surcharges (SSC) to cover the higher cost of jet fuel and additional operational costs due to rerouting.
All of this puts upward pressure on rates which is seen on most lanes out of Asia to the U.S. and Europe. Costs have also been rising as carriers introduce a range of war risk surcharges.
“Airspace closures because of the conflict in Ukraine have resulted in a 25 percent drop in direct air cargo capacity between Europe and North East Asia,” notes the March DHL Airfreight State of the Industry report.
The report also noted that additional air cargo capacity to Japan was taken out of the market due to the Ukraine situation. However, freighter capacity on other trade lanes has thus far seen only a minor impact, but space remains very tight.] => 欧洲局势变化带来的不确定性
与此同时，乌克兰局势对供应链也是一个沉重的打击。市场已经无法使用大片空域，导致运输路线变长。还有很多俄罗斯承运商无法在市场中活动，从而在紧缩的市场中进一步导致全球运力紧张。
“与新冠肺炎疫情一样，乌克兰战争是航空货运行业无法控制但会造成深远影响的外部事件的另一个例子，”CLIVE数据服务公司董事总经理Niall van de Wouw说道。
航空货运中的货车运输服务也可能受到大量乌克兰卡车司机决定归国的影响，他们在欧洲货车司机当中占有很大的比重。
“当我们考察航空业从疫情中复苏的问题时，乘客能否回归仍然是一个巨大的问号。乌克兰战争带来了另一个巨大的问号，”van de Wouw补充道。
另一个需要考虑的市场因素是能源价格上涨导致的燃油成本上升。这个问题又导致燃油附加费（FSC）和安全附加费（SSC）增加，以弥补航空燃油的成本上涨和运输路线变更带来的额外运营成本。
所有这些都给运价带来了上涨压力，这一点可以从亚洲到美国和欧洲的大多数航线中看到。随着承运商引入一系列战争险附加费，成本也在不断攀升。
今年3月的敦豪《航空货运行业状况报告》指出，“乌克兰冲突导致的领空封锁，使得欧洲与东北亚之间的直接航空货运能力降低了25％。”
这份报告还提到，由于乌克兰局势，市场已不考虑前往日本的额外航空货运能力。然而，迄今为止，其他贸易路线的货机运力只受到轻微影响，但空间仍然非常紧张。
[Goodbye to normality?
The dual shocks of more lockdowns in China and war in Europe came just as there were signs of normality returning to the market this year. A number of Asian countries have lifted travel and transport restrictions, along with key global markets opening up once more.
The global air cargo market had continued trying to catch up with pre-pandemic levels in February as freight volumes, capacity and load factors stabilised close to 2019’s performance. This was also accompanied by rates also slowly trending downwards, according to the latest data from CLIVE Data Services.
According to analysis by CLIVE, global chargeable air cargo weight in February 2022 was -0.7 percent compared to the pre-Covid-19 level in 2019, and +2.6 percent compared to February 2021. Meanwhile, market capacity for the same period in 2022 stood at -5.4 percent and +6.9 percent compared to 2019 and 2021 figures.
The analyst firm reported that after the peak season in November 2021 and December 2021, quieter market conditions at the start of the year saw overall rates ease for a second consecutive month. “Rates, while still very high, were seen to be slowly winding down in February as capacity returned to the market and the stress on supply chains seen over the past two years began to ease,” it added.
However, the ongoing situation Ukraine means the market will remain uncertain for a while, with the loss of Asia-Europe capacity, overflight issues and higher fuel prices casting a lengthy shadow.
“A fragile global air cargo supply chain is already sensitive to minor shocks. War in Europe and its resulting sanctions could turn the industry upside down once again, just at the time when the Covid-19 impact was looking more under control. We remain in volatile and uncertain times,” said van de Wouw.
Customers are advised to check on the viability of using other routes. “We are monitoring the situation and constantly advising customers on alternative routes to meet their shipping needs,” said Leung.] => 再也无法恢复常态？
中国进一步封锁和欧洲战争的双重冲击正恰发生于在今年市场刚有恢复正常的迹象时。很多亚洲国家已经解除了旅行和运输限制，而且全球主要市场已经重新开放。
CLIVE数据服务公司的最新数据表明，今年2月，随着货运量、运力和载货率接近2019年的水平，全球航空货运市场继续试图达到疫情前的水平。与此同时，运价开始缓慢下降。
根据CLIVE数据服务公司的分析，2022年2月全球收费航空货运量与2019年疫情前水平相比下降了0.7％，与2021年2月相比上升了2.6％。与此同时，2022年同期的市场容量与2019年和2021年相比分别减小了5.4％和增加了6.9％。
该公司称，经过2021年11月和2021年11月旺季之后，在今年年初平静的市场状况下，总体运价连续第二个月下降。“虽然运价仍然很高，但随着市场运力的逐渐恢复和过去两年内供应链压力开始减小，2月运价开始缓慢下降，”该公司补充道。
然而，乌克兰持续的紧张局势意味着市场仍将在一段时期内保持不确定性，而且亚欧运力损失、飞越领空问题和燃油价格上涨给市场前景蒙上了长期阴影。
“脆弱的全球航空货运供应链对轻微冲击已经非常敏感。欧洲战争及其引起的制裁会再次完全颠覆整个行业，而与此同时，新冠肺炎疫情的影响似乎更加可控。我们仍然处在动荡多变的时期，”van de Wouw说道。
建议客户核实采用其他航线的可行性。“我们正在对情况进行监视，而且不断向客户提出替代航线的建议，以便满足他们的航运需求，”Leung说道。
[With parts of China under strict Covid-19 lockdowns, and the evolving situation in Ukraine causing overflight issues as well as bumping up surcharges and fuel costs, the air freight market tightened considerably in March.
Despite a number of bright signs in the early months of this year, further disruptions are now to be expected as geopolitical uncertainty clouds the economic and trading outlook.
Even as some markets in Asia are starting to open up, there are still tremendous operational challenges and capacity remains far lower than pre-pandemic days. This leaves the market open to supply chain disruptions.
“It’s been two years since we really started seeing how this pandemic was impacting global freight markets and the supply side limitations it caused are still pronounced,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.
China’s Covid-19 policy puts a damper on recovery
As this column has recounted previously, China’s severe zero-Covid-19 policy is putting a handbrake on national economic growth, on top of regional and global supply chain efficiency.
A string of extensive lockdowns in southern China in response to an outbreak of the Omicron variant again disrupted ports, airports, manufacturing output and export capacity in early March. Strict rules have since closed Shanghai’s Pudong airport to inbound passenger services for six weeks from 18 March, with flights diverted to 13 other cities in a bid to stop the spread of new Covid-19 cases.
Shenzhen airport, which picks up cargo usually handled at Hong Kong, is also struggling with a surge in Covid-19 cases, which led to the airport’s closure in mid-March.
“While we were expecting some signs of recovery in bellyhold capacity, the reality is that businesses have to be prepared for ever-changing global situations,” added Leung.] => 随着中国部分地区受到严格的疫情封锁、涉及飞越领空问题的乌克兰形势变化以及附加费和燃油成本的上升，航空货运市场在3月份显著紧缩。
尽管今年前几个月有一系列明朗的迹象，但由于地缘政治不确定性给经济和贸易前景蒙上阴影，预计会产生进一步影响。
即使亚洲一些市场开始开放，但仍然存在巨大的运营难题，而且运力远低于疫情前水平。因此，市场随时会受到供应链中断的影响。
“从我们真正开始关注本次疫情对全球货运市场的影响时起已经过去了两年，由此给供应侧带来的制约仍然非常显著，”敦豪全球货运亚太区首席执行官Kelvin Leung说道。
中国抗疫政策给复苏涂上一层灰色
正如先前所述的那样，中国严格的疫情清零政策使国家经济发展陷入停顿状态，还影响了地区和全球供应链的运行效率。
3月初，华南地区为了应对奥密克戎毒株爆发采取了一系列广泛的封锁措施，再次扰乱了港口、机场、制造业产量和出口能力。从3月18日开始，在严格的管控措施下，上海浦东机场的入境旅客服务已经关闭了六周，航班被转移到另外13个城市，以便阻止新新冠肺炎病例的传播。
主要负责处理香港中转货物的深圳机场也在努力应对激增的新冠肺炎病例，导致机场于3月中旬关闭。
“虽然我们预计腹舱运力有一些恢复的迹象，但实际情况是各企业必须为不断变化的全球形势做好准备，”Leung补充道。
[wysiwyg] => wysiwyg
[outbound_box] => outbound_box
[Further disruptions and increased air freight rates are expected as the Ukraine situation evolves. With parts of China under strict Covid-19 lockdowns, and the evolving situation in Ukraine causing overflight issues as well as bumping up surcharges and fuel costs, the air freight market tightened considerably in March.
Despite a number of bright signs in the early months of this year, further disruptions are now to be expected as geopolitical uncertainty clouds the economic and trading outlook.
Even as some markets in Asia are starting to open up, there are still tremendous operational challenges and capacity remains far lower than pre-pandemic days. This leaves the market open to supply chain disruptions.
“It’s been two years since we really started seeing how this pandemic was impacting global freight markets and the supply side limitations it caused are still pronounced,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.
China’s Covid-19 policy puts a damper on recovery
As this column has recounted previously, China’s severe zero-Covid-19 policy is putting a handbrake on national economic growth, on top of regional and global supply chain efficiency.
A string of extensive lockdowns in southern China in response to an outbreak of the Omicron variant again disrupted ports, airports, manufacturing output and export capacity in early March. Strict rules have since closed Shanghai’s Pudong airport to inbound passenger services for six weeks from 18 March, with flights diverted to 13 other cities in a bid to stop the spread of new Covid-19 cases.
Shenzhen airport, which picks up cargo usually handled at Hong Kong, is also struggling with a surge in Covid-19 cases, which led to the airport’s closure in mid-March.
“While we were expecting some signs of recovery in bellyhold capacity, the reality is that businesses have to be prepared for ever-changing global situations,” added Leung.
RELATED ARTICLESChina casts a pall over air cargo capacityFlight cancellations due to Covid-19 outbreaks across various Chinese airports will further impact operations in 2022.Uncertainties from developing situation in Europe
Meanwhile, the situation in Ukraine is also a major shock to the supply chain. The market has lost access to swathes of air space, leading to longer routings. There are also a number of Russian carriers that are no longer active in the market, causing further global capacity headaches in such a tight market.
“The war in Ukraine is another example of an external event of which the air cargo industry has no control over, but which is having a profound impact, as happened with Covid-19,” said Niall van de Wouw, Managing Director of CLIVE Data Services.
Air cargo trucking services might also be affected as numerous Ukrainian drivers – which form an important share of the truck drivers in Europe – have decided to go back to their home country.
“When we consider the recovery of the aviation industry from the pandemic, the return of passengers is still a big question mark. The war in Ukraine presents another big question mark,” added van de Wouw.
Another market factor to consider is the energy price increase, which translates to higher fuel costs. This has in turn led to an increase in fuel surcharges (FSC) and security surcharges (SSC) to cover the higher cost of jet fuel and additional operational costs due to rerouting.
All of this puts upward pressure on rates which is seen on most lanes out of Asia to the U.S. and Europe. Costs have also been rising as carriers introduce a range of war risk surcharges.
“Airspace closures because of the conflict in Ukraine have resulted in a 25 percent drop in direct air cargo capacity between Europe and North East Asia,” notes the March DHL Airfreight State of the Industry report.
The report also noted that additional air cargo capacity to Japan was taken out of the market due to the Ukraine situation. However, freighter capacity on other trade lanes has thus far seen only a minor impact, but space remains very tight.
RELATED ARTICLESScheduling difficulties abound for ocean freightOngoing port congestions and an evolving situation in Ukraine are contributing to further uncertainties.Goodbye to normality?
The dual shocks of more lockdowns in China and war in Europe came just as there were signs of normality returning to the market this year. A number of Asian countries have lifted travel and transport restrictions, along with key global markets opening up once more.
The global air cargo market had continued trying to catch up with pre-pandemic levels in February as freight volumes, capacity and load factors stabilised close to 2019’s performance. This was also accompanied by rates also slowly trending downwards, according to the latest data from CLIVE Data Services.
According to analysis by CLIVE, global chargeable air cargo weight in February 2022 was -0.7 percent compared to the pre-Covid-19 level in 2019, and +2.6 percent compared to February 2021. Meanwhile, market capacity for the same period in 2022 stood at -5.4 percent and +6.9 percent compared to 2019 and 2021 figures.
The analyst firm reported that after the peak season in November 2021 and December 2021, quieter market conditions at the start of the year saw overall rates ease for a second consecutive month. “Rates, while still very high, were seen to be slowly winding down in February as capacity returned to the market and the stress on supply chains seen over the past two years began to ease,” it added.
However, the ongoing situation Ukraine means the market will remain uncertain for a while, with the loss of Asia-Europe capacity, overflight issues and higher fuel prices casting a lengthy shadow.
“A fragile global air cargo supply chain is already sensitive to minor shocks. War in Europe and its resulting sanctions could turn the industry upside down once again, just at the time when the Covid-19 impact was looking more under control. We remain in volatile and uncertain times,” said van de Wouw.
Customers are advised to check on the viability of using other routes. “We are monitoring the situation and constantly advising customers on alternative routes to meet their shipping needs,” said Leung.] =>
[] =>
[early-positives-give-way-uncertainties-air-freight] => early-positives-give-way-uncertainties-air-freight
[AFR-Jan-2022-key-image] => AFR-Jan-2022-key-image
[China casts a pall over air cargo capacity] => China casts a pall over freight
[scheduling-difficulties-ocean-freight-key-image] => scheduling-difficulties-ocean-freight-key-image
[Scheduling difficulties abound for ocean freight] => Scheduling difficulties abound for ocean freight
[early-positives-give-way-uncertainties-air-freight-single-column] => early-positives-give-way-uncertainties-air-freight-single-column
[early-positives-give-way-uncertainties-air-freight-key-image] => early-positives-give-way-uncertainties-air-freight-key-image
)
[$value] =>
Uncertainties from developing situation in Europe
Meanwhile, the situation in Ukraine is also a major shock to the supply chain. The market has lost access to swathes of air space, leading to longer routings. There are also a number of Russian carriers that are no longer active in the market, causing further global capacity headaches in such a tight market.
“The war in Ukraine is another example of an external event of which the air cargo industry has no control over, but which is having a profound impact, as happened with Covid-19,” said Niall van de Wouw, Managing Director of CLIVE Data Services.
Air cargo trucking services might also be affected as numerous Ukrainian drivers - which form an important share of the truck drivers in Europe - have decided to go back to their home country.
“When we consider the recovery of the aviation industry from the pandemic, the return of passengers is still a big question mark. The war in Ukraine presents another big question mark,” added van de Wouw.
Another market factor to consider is the energy price increase, which translates to higher fuel costs. This has in turn led to an increase in fuel surcharges (FSC) and security surcharges (SSC) to cover the higher cost of jet fuel and additional operational costs due to rerouting.
All of this puts upward pressure on rates which is seen on most lanes out of Asia to the U.S. and Europe. Costs have also been rising as carriers introduce a range of war risk surcharges.
“Airspace closures because of the conflict in Ukraine have resulted in a 25 percent drop in direct air cargo capacity between Europe and North East Asia,” notes the March DHL Airfreight State of the Industry report.
The report also noted that additional air cargo capacity to Japan was taken out of the market due to the Ukraine situation. However, freighter capacity on other trade lanes has thus far seen only a minor impact, but space remains very tight.
)
Array
(
[derick] => Array
(
[Further disruptions and increased air freight rates are expected as the Ukraine situation evolves.] => 随着乌克兰局势的变化，预计将发生进一步中断和空运运价上涨。
[[]] =>
[Early positives give way to uncertainties for air freight] => Early positives give way to uncertainties for air freight
[Uncertainties from developing situation in Europe
Meanwhile, the situation in Ukraine is also a major shock to the supply chain. The market has lost access to swathes of air space, leading to longer routings. There are also a number of Russian carriers that are no longer active in the market, causing further global capacity headaches in such a tight market.
“The war in Ukraine is another example of an external event of which the air cargo industry has no control over, but which is having a profound impact, as happened with Covid-19,” said Niall van de Wouw, Managing Director of CLIVE Data Services.
Air cargo trucking services might also be affected as numerous Ukrainian drivers - which form an important share of the truck drivers in Europe - have decided to go back to their home country.
“When we consider the recovery of the aviation industry from the pandemic, the return of passengers is still a big question mark. The war in Ukraine presents another big question mark,” added van de Wouw.
Another market factor to consider is the energy price increase, which translates to higher fuel costs. This has in turn led to an increase in fuel surcharges (FSC) and security surcharges (SSC) to cover the higher cost of jet fuel and additional operational costs due to rerouting.
All of this puts upward pressure on rates which is seen on most lanes out of Asia to the U.S. and Europe. Costs have also been rising as carriers introduce a range of war risk surcharges.
“Airspace closures because of the conflict in Ukraine have resulted in a 25 percent drop in direct air cargo capacity between Europe and North East Asia,” notes the March DHL Airfreight State of the Industry report.
The report also noted that additional air cargo capacity to Japan was taken out of the market due to the Ukraine situation. However, freighter capacity on other trade lanes has thus far seen only a minor impact, but space remains very tight.] => 欧洲局势变化带来的不确定性
与此同时，乌克兰局势对供应链也是一个沉重的打击。市场已经无法使用大片空域，导致运输路线变长。还有很多俄罗斯承运商无法在市场中活动，从而在紧缩的市场中进一步导致全球运力紧张。
“与新冠肺炎疫情一样，乌克兰战争是航空货运行业无法控制但会造成深远影响的外部事件的另一个例子，”CLIVE数据服务公司董事总经理Niall van de Wouw说道。
航空货运中的货车运输服务也可能受到大量乌克兰卡车司机决定归国的影响，他们在欧洲货车司机当中占有很大的比重。
“当我们考察航空业从疫情中复苏的问题时，乘客能否回归仍然是一个巨大的问号。乌克兰战争带来了另一个巨大的问号，”van de Wouw补充道。
另一个需要考虑的市场因素是能源价格上涨导致的燃油成本上升。这个问题又导致燃油附加费（FSC）和安全附加费（SSC）增加，以弥补航空燃油的成本上涨和运输路线变更带来的额外运营成本。
所有这些都给运价带来了上涨压力，这一点可以从亚洲到美国和欧洲的大多数航线中看到。随着承运商引入一系列战争险附加费，成本也在不断攀升。
今年3月的敦豪《航空货运行业状况报告》指出，“乌克兰冲突导致的领空封锁，使得欧洲与东北亚之间的直接航空货运能力降低了25％。”
这份报告还提到，由于乌克兰局势，市场已不考虑前往日本的额外航空货运能力。然而，迄今为止，其他贸易路线的货机运力只受到轻微影响，但空间仍然非常紧张。
[Goodbye to normality?
The dual shocks of more lockdowns in China and war in Europe came just as there were signs of normality returning to the market this year. A number of Asian countries have lifted travel and transport restrictions, along with key global markets opening up once more.
The global air cargo market had continued trying to catch up with pre-pandemic levels in February as freight volumes, capacity and load factors stabilised close to 2019’s performance. This was also accompanied by rates also slowly trending downwards, according to the latest data from CLIVE Data Services.
According to analysis by CLIVE, global chargeable air cargo weight in February 2022 was -0.7 percent compared to the pre-Covid-19 level in 2019, and +2.6 percent compared to February 2021. Meanwhile, market capacity for the same period in 2022 stood at -5.4 percent and +6.9 percent compared to 2019 and 2021 figures.
The analyst firm reported that after the peak season in November 2021 and December 2021, quieter market conditions at the start of the year saw overall rates ease for a second consecutive month. “Rates, while still very high, were seen to be slowly winding down in February as capacity returned to the market and the stress on supply chains seen over the past two years began to ease,” it added.
However, the ongoing situation Ukraine means the market will remain uncertain for a while, with the loss of Asia-Europe capacity, overflight issues and higher fuel prices casting a lengthy shadow.
“A fragile global air cargo supply chain is already sensitive to minor shocks. War in Europe and its resulting sanctions could turn the industry upside down once again, just at the time when the Covid-19 impact was looking more under control. We remain in volatile and uncertain times,” said van de Wouw.
Customers are advised to check on the viability of using other routes. “We are monitoring the situation and constantly advising customers on alternative routes to meet their shipping needs,” said Leung.] => 再也无法恢复常态？
中国进一步封锁和欧洲战争的双重冲击正恰发生于在今年市场刚有恢复正常的迹象时。很多亚洲国家已经解除了旅行和运输限制，而且全球主要市场已经重新开放。
CLIVE数据服务公司的最新数据表明，今年2月，随着货运量、运力和载货率接近2019年的水平，全球航空货运市场继续试图达到疫情前的水平。与此同时，运价开始缓慢下降。
根据CLIVE数据服务公司的分析，2022年2月全球收费航空货运量与2019年疫情前水平相比下降了0.7％，与2021年2月相比上升了2.6％。与此同时，2022年同期的市场容量与2019年和2021年相比分别减小了5.4％和增加了6.9％。
该公司称，经过2021年11月和2021年11月旺季之后，在今年年初平静的市场状况下，总体运价连续第二个月下降。“虽然运价仍然很高，但随着市场运力的逐渐恢复和过去两年内供应链压力开始减小，2月运价开始缓慢下降，”该公司补充道。
然而，乌克兰持续的紧张局势意味着市场仍将在一段时期内保持不确定性，而且亚欧运力损失、飞越领空问题和燃油价格上涨给市场前景蒙上了长期阴影。
“脆弱的全球航空货运供应链对轻微冲击已经非常敏感。欧洲战争及其引起的制裁会再次完全颠覆整个行业，而与此同时，新冠肺炎疫情的影响似乎更加可控。我们仍然处在动荡多变的时期，”van de Wouw说道。
建议客户核实采用其他航线的可行性。“我们正在对情况进行监视，而且不断向客户提出替代航线的建议，以便满足他们的航运需求，”Leung说道。
[With parts of China under strict Covid-19 lockdowns, and the evolving situation in Ukraine causing overflight issues as well as bumping up surcharges and fuel costs, the air freight market tightened considerably in March.
Despite a number of bright signs in the early months of this year, further disruptions are now to be expected as geopolitical uncertainty clouds the economic and trading outlook.
Even as some markets in Asia are starting to open up, there are still tremendous operational challenges and capacity remains far lower than pre-pandemic days. This leaves the market open to supply chain disruptions.
“It’s been two years since we really started seeing how this pandemic was impacting global freight markets and the supply side limitations it caused are still pronounced,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.
China’s Covid-19 policy puts a damper on recovery
As this column has recounted previously, China’s severe zero-Covid-19 policy is putting a handbrake on national economic growth, on top of regional and global supply chain efficiency.
A string of extensive lockdowns in southern China in response to an outbreak of the Omicron variant again disrupted ports, airports, manufacturing output and export capacity in early March. Strict rules have since closed Shanghai’s Pudong airport to inbound passenger services for six weeks from 18 March, with flights diverted to 13 other cities in a bid to stop the spread of new Covid-19 cases.
Shenzhen airport, which picks up cargo usually handled at Hong Kong, is also struggling with a surge in Covid-19 cases, which led to the airport’s closure in mid-March.
“While we were expecting some signs of recovery in bellyhold capacity, the reality is that businesses have to be prepared for ever-changing global situations,” added Leung.] => 随着中国部分地区受到严格的疫情封锁、涉及飞越领空问题的乌克兰形势变化以及附加费和燃油成本的上升，航空货运市场在3月份显著紧缩。
尽管今年前几个月有一系列明朗的迹象，但由于地缘政治不确定性给经济和贸易前景蒙上阴影，预计会产生进一步影响。
即使亚洲一些市场开始开放，但仍然存在巨大的运营难题，而且运力远低于疫情前水平。因此，市场随时会受到供应链中断的影响。
“从我们真正开始关注本次疫情对全球货运市场的影响时起已经过去了两年，由此给供应侧带来的制约仍然非常显著，”敦豪全球货运亚太区首席执行官Kelvin Leung说道。
中国抗疫政策给复苏涂上一层灰色
正如先前所述的那样，中国严格的疫情清零政策使国家经济发展陷入停顿状态，还影响了地区和全球供应链的运行效率。
3月初，华南地区为了应对奥密克戎毒株爆发采取了一系列广泛的封锁措施，再次扰乱了港口、机场、制造业产量和出口能力。从3月18日开始，在严格的管控措施下，上海浦东机场的入境旅客服务已经关闭了六周，航班被转移到另外13个城市，以便阻止新新冠肺炎病例的传播。
主要负责处理香港中转货物的深圳机场也在努力应对激增的新冠肺炎病例，导致机场于3月中旬关闭。
“虽然我们预计腹舱运力有一些恢复的迹象，但实际情况是各企业必须为不断变化的全球形势做好准备，”Leung补充道。
[wysiwyg] => wysiwyg
[outbound_box] => outbound_box
[Further disruptions and increased air freight rates are expected as the Ukraine situation evolves. With parts of China under strict Covid-19 lockdowns, and the evolving situation in Ukraine causing overflight issues as well as bumping up surcharges and fuel costs, the air freight market tightened considerably in March.
Despite a number of bright signs in the early months of this year, further disruptions are now to be expected as geopolitical uncertainty clouds the economic and trading outlook.
Even as some markets in Asia are starting to open up, there are still tremendous operational challenges and capacity remains far lower than pre-pandemic days. This leaves the market open to supply chain disruptions.
“It’s been two years since we really started seeing how this pandemic was impacting global freight markets and the supply side limitations it caused are still pronounced,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.
China’s Covid-19 policy puts a damper on recovery
As this column has recounted previously, China’s severe zero-Covid-19 policy is putting a handbrake on national economic growth, on top of regional and global supply chain efficiency.
A string of extensive lockdowns in southern China in response to an outbreak of the Omicron variant again disrupted ports, airports, manufacturing output and export capacity in early March. Strict rules have since closed Shanghai’s Pudong airport to inbound passenger services for six weeks from 18 March, with flights diverted to 13 other cities in a bid to stop the spread of new Covid-19 cases.
Shenzhen airport, which picks up cargo usually handled at Hong Kong, is also struggling with a surge in Covid-19 cases, which led to the airport’s closure in mid-March.
“While we were expecting some signs of recovery in bellyhold capacity, the reality is that businesses have to be prepared for ever-changing global situations,” added Leung.
RELATED ARTICLESChina casts a pall over air cargo capacityFlight cancellations due to Covid-19 outbreaks across various Chinese airports will further impact operations in 2022.Uncertainties from developing situation in Europe
Meanwhile, the situation in Ukraine is also a major shock to the supply chain. The market has lost access to swathes of air space, leading to longer routings. There are also a number of Russian carriers that are no longer active in the market, causing further global capacity headaches in such a tight market.
“The war in Ukraine is another example of an external event of which the air cargo industry has no control over, but which is having a profound impact, as happened with Covid-19,” said Niall van de Wouw, Managing Director of CLIVE Data Services.
Air cargo trucking services might also be affected as numerous Ukrainian drivers – which form an important share of the truck drivers in Europe – have decided to go back to their home country.
“When we consider the recovery of the aviation industry from the pandemic, the return of passengers is still a big question mark. The war in Ukraine presents another big question mark,” added van de Wouw.
Another market factor to consider is the energy price increase, which translates to higher fuel costs. This has in turn led to an increase in fuel surcharges (FSC) and security surcharges (SSC) to cover the higher cost of jet fuel and additional operational costs due to rerouting.
All of this puts upward pressure on rates which is seen on most lanes out of Asia to the U.S. and Europe. Costs have also been rising as carriers introduce a range of war risk surcharges.
“Airspace closures because of the conflict in Ukraine have resulted in a 25 percent drop in direct air cargo capacity between Europe and North East Asia,” notes the March DHL Airfreight State of the Industry report.
The report also noted that additional air cargo capacity to Japan was taken out of the market due to the Ukraine situation. However, freighter capacity on other trade lanes has thus far seen only a minor impact, but space remains very tight.
RELATED ARTICLESScheduling difficulties abound for ocean freightOngoing port congestions and an evolving situation in Ukraine are contributing to further uncertainties.Goodbye to normality?
The dual shocks of more lockdowns in China and war in Europe came just as there were signs of normality returning to the market this year. A number of Asian countries have lifted travel and transport restrictions, along with key global markets opening up once more.
The global air cargo market had continued trying to catch up with pre-pandemic levels in February as freight volumes, capacity and load factors stabilised close to 2019’s performance. This was also accompanied by rates also slowly trending downwards, according to the latest data from CLIVE Data Services.
According to analysis by CLIVE, global chargeable air cargo weight in February 2022 was -0.7 percent compared to the pre-Covid-19 level in 2019, and +2.6 percent compared to February 2021. Meanwhile, market capacity for the same period in 2022 stood at -5.4 percent and +6.9 percent compared to 2019 and 2021 figures.
The analyst firm reported that after the peak season in November 2021 and December 2021, quieter market conditions at the start of the year saw overall rates ease for a second consecutive month. “Rates, while still very high, were seen to be slowly winding down in February as capacity returned to the market and the stress on supply chains seen over the past two years began to ease,” it added.
However, the ongoing situation Ukraine means the market will remain uncertain for a while, with the loss of Asia-Europe capacity, overflight issues and higher fuel prices casting a lengthy shadow.
“A fragile global air cargo supply chain is already sensitive to minor shocks. War in Europe and its resulting sanctions could turn the industry upside down once again, just at the time when the Covid-19 impact was looking more under control. We remain in volatile and uncertain times,” said van de Wouw.
Customers are advised to check on the viability of using other routes. “We are monitoring the situation and constantly advising customers on alternative routes to meet their shipping needs,” said Leung.] =>
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[China casts a pall over air cargo capacity] => China casts a pall over freight
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[Scheduling difficulties abound for ocean freight] => Scheduling difficulties abound for ocean freight
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Goodbye to normality?
The dual shocks of more lockdowns in China and war in Europe came just as there were signs of normality returning to the market this year. A number of Asian countries have lifted travel and transport restrictions, along with key global markets opening up once more.
The global air cargo market had continued trying to catch up with pre-pandemic levels in February as freight volumes, capacity and load factors stabilised close to 2019’s performance. This was also accompanied by rates also slowly trending downwards, according to the latest data from CLIVE Data Services.
According to analysis by CLIVE, global chargeable air cargo weight in February 2022 was -0.7 percent compared to the pre-Covid-19 level in 2019, and +2.6 percent compared to February 2021. Meanwhile, market capacity for the same period in 2022 stood at -5.4 percent and +6.9 percent compared to 2019 and 2021 figures.
The analyst firm reported that after the peak season in November 2021 and December 2021, quieter market conditions at the start of the year saw overall rates ease for a second consecutive month. “Rates, while still very high, were seen to be slowly winding down in February as capacity returned to the market and the stress on supply chains seen over the past two years began to ease,” it added.
However, the ongoing situation Ukraine means the market will remain uncertain for a while, with the loss of Asia-Europe capacity, overflight issues and higher fuel prices casting a lengthy shadow.
“A fragile global air cargo supply chain is already sensitive to minor shocks. War in Europe and its resulting sanctions could turn the industry upside down once again, just at the time when the Covid-19 impact was looking more under control. We remain in volatile and uncertain times,” said van de Wouw.
Customers are advised to check on the viability of using other routes. “We are monitoring the situation and constantly advising customers on alternative routes to meet their shipping needs,” said Leung.
)
Array
(
[Further disruptions and increased air freight rates are expected as the Ukraine situation evolves.] => 随着乌克兰局势的变化，预计将发生进一步中断和空运运价上涨。
[[]] =>
[Early positives give way to uncertainties for air freight] => Early positives give way to uncertainties for air freight
[Uncertainties from developing situation in Europe
Meanwhile, the situation in Ukraine is also a major shock to the supply chain. The market has lost access to swathes of air space, leading to longer routings. There are also a number of Russian carriers that are no longer active in the market, causing further global capacity headaches in such a tight market.
“The war in Ukraine is another example of an external event of which the air cargo industry has no control over, but which is having a profound impact, as happened with Covid-19,” said Niall van de Wouw, Managing Director of CLIVE Data Services.
Air cargo trucking services might also be affected as numerous Ukrainian drivers - which form an important share of the truck drivers in Europe - have decided to go back to their home country.
“When we consider the recovery of the aviation industry from the pandemic, the return of passengers is still a big question mark. The war in Ukraine presents another big question mark,” added van de Wouw.
Another market factor to consider is the energy price increase, which translates to higher fuel costs. This has in turn led to an increase in fuel surcharges (FSC) and security surcharges (SSC) to cover the higher cost of jet fuel and additional operational costs due to rerouting.
All of this puts upward pressure on rates which is seen on most lanes out of Asia to the U.S. and Europe. Costs have also been rising as carriers introduce a range of war risk surcharges.
“Airspace closures because of the conflict in Ukraine have resulted in a 25 percent drop in direct air cargo capacity between Europe and North East Asia,” notes the March DHL Airfreight State of the Industry report.
The report also noted that additional air cargo capacity to Japan was taken out of the market due to the Ukraine situation. However, freighter capacity on other trade lanes has thus far seen only a minor impact, but space remains very tight.] => 欧洲局势变化带来的不确定性
与此同时，乌克兰局势对供应链也是一个沉重的打击。市场已经无法使用大片空域，导致运输路线变长。还有很多俄罗斯承运商无法在市场中活动，从而在紧缩的市场中进一步导致全球运力紧张。
“与新冠肺炎疫情一样，乌克兰战争是航空货运行业无法控制但会造成深远影响的外部事件的另一个例子，”CLIVE数据服务公司董事总经理Niall van de Wouw说道。
航空货运中的货车运输服务也可能受到大量乌克兰卡车司机决定归国的影响，他们在欧洲货车司机当中占有很大的比重。
“当我们考察航空业从疫情中复苏的问题时，乘客能否回归仍然是一个巨大的问号。乌克兰战争带来了另一个巨大的问号，”van de Wouw补充道。
另一个需要考虑的市场因素是能源价格上涨导致的燃油成本上升。这个问题又导致燃油附加费（FSC）和安全附加费（SSC）增加，以弥补航空燃油的成本上涨和运输路线变更带来的额外运营成本。
所有这些都给运价带来了上涨压力，这一点可以从亚洲到美国和欧洲的大多数航线中看到。随着承运商引入一系列战争险附加费，成本也在不断攀升。
今年3月的敦豪《航空货运行业状况报告》指出，“乌克兰冲突导致的领空封锁，使得欧洲与东北亚之间的直接航空货运能力降低了25％。”
这份报告还提到，由于乌克兰局势，市场已不考虑前往日本的额外航空货运能力。然而，迄今为止，其他贸易路线的货机运力只受到轻微影响，但空间仍然非常紧张。
[Goodbye to normality?
The dual shocks of more lockdowns in China and war in Europe came just as there were signs of normality returning to the market this year. A number of Asian countries have lifted travel and transport restrictions, along with key global markets opening up once more.
The global air cargo market had continued trying to catch up with pre-pandemic levels in February as freight volumes, capacity and load factors stabilised close to 2019’s performance. This was also accompanied by rates also slowly trending downwards, according to the latest data from CLIVE Data Services.
According to analysis by CLIVE, global chargeable air cargo weight in February 2022 was -0.7 percent compared to the pre-Covid-19 level in 2019, and +2.6 percent compared to February 2021. Meanwhile, market capacity for the same period in 2022 stood at -5.4 percent and +6.9 percent compared to 2019 and 2021 figures.
The analyst firm reported that after the peak season in November 2021 and December 2021, quieter market conditions at the start of the year saw overall rates ease for a second consecutive month. “Rates, while still very high, were seen to be slowly winding down in February as capacity returned to the market and the stress on supply chains seen over the past two years began to ease,” it added.
However, the ongoing situation Ukraine means the market will remain uncertain for a while, with the loss of Asia-Europe capacity, overflight issues and higher fuel prices casting a lengthy shadow.
“A fragile global air cargo supply chain is already sensitive to minor shocks. War in Europe and its resulting sanctions could turn the industry upside down once again, just at the time when the Covid-19 impact was looking more under control. We remain in volatile and uncertain times,” said van de Wouw.
Customers are advised to check on the viability of using other routes. “We are monitoring the situation and constantly advising customers on alternative routes to meet their shipping needs,” said Leung.] => 再也无法恢复常态？
中国进一步封锁和欧洲战争的双重冲击正恰发生于在今年市场刚有恢复正常的迹象时。很多亚洲国家已经解除了旅行和运输限制，而且全球主要市场已经重新开放。
CLIVE数据服务公司的最新数据表明，今年2月，随着货运量、运力和载货率接近2019年的水平，全球航空货运市场继续试图达到疫情前的水平。与此同时，运价开始缓慢下降。
根据CLIVE数据服务公司的分析，2022年2月全球收费航空货运量与2019年疫情前水平相比下降了0.7％，与2021年2月相比上升了2.6％。与此同时，2022年同期的市场容量与2019年和2021年相比分别减小了5.4％和增加了6.9％。
该公司称，经过2021年11月和2021年11月旺季之后，在今年年初平静的市场状况下，总体运价连续第二个月下降。“虽然运价仍然很高，但随着市场运力的逐渐恢复和过去两年内供应链压力开始减小，2月运价开始缓慢下降，”该公司补充道。
然而，乌克兰持续的紧张局势意味着市场仍将在一段时期内保持不确定性，而且亚欧运力损失、飞越领空问题和燃油价格上涨给市场前景蒙上了长期阴影。
“脆弱的全球航空货运供应链对轻微冲击已经非常敏感。欧洲战争及其引起的制裁会再次完全颠覆整个行业，而与此同时，新冠肺炎疫情的影响似乎更加可控。我们仍然处在动荡多变的时期，”van de Wouw说道。
建议客户核实采用其他航线的可行性。“我们正在对情况进行监视，而且不断向客户提出替代航线的建议，以便满足他们的航运需求，”Leung说道。
[With parts of China under strict Covid-19 lockdowns, and the evolving situation in Ukraine causing overflight issues as well as bumping up surcharges and fuel costs, the air freight market tightened considerably in March.
Despite a number of bright signs in the early months of this year, further disruptions are now to be expected as geopolitical uncertainty clouds the economic and trading outlook.
Even as some markets in Asia are starting to open up, there are still tremendous operational challenges and capacity remains far lower than pre-pandemic days. This leaves the market open to supply chain disruptions.
“It’s been two years since we really started seeing how this pandemic was impacting global freight markets and the supply side limitations it caused are still pronounced,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.
China’s Covid-19 policy puts a damper on recovery
As this column has recounted previously, China’s severe zero-Covid-19 policy is putting a handbrake on national economic growth, on top of regional and global supply chain efficiency.
A string of extensive lockdowns in southern China in response to an outbreak of the Omicron variant again disrupted ports, airports, manufacturing output and export capacity in early March. Strict rules have since closed Shanghai’s Pudong airport to inbound passenger services for six weeks from 18 March, with flights diverted to 13 other cities in a bid to stop the spread of new Covid-19 cases.
Shenzhen airport, which picks up cargo usually handled at Hong Kong, is also struggling with a surge in Covid-19 cases, which led to the airport’s closure in mid-March.
“While we were expecting some signs of recovery in bellyhold capacity, the reality is that businesses have to be prepared for ever-changing global situations,” added Leung.] => 随着中国部分地区受到严格的疫情封锁、涉及飞越领空问题的乌克兰形势变化以及附加费和燃油成本的上升，航空货运市场在3月份显著紧缩。
尽管今年前几个月有一系列明朗的迹象，但由于地缘政治不确定性给经济和贸易前景蒙上阴影，预计会产生进一步影响。
即使亚洲一些市场开始开放，但仍然存在巨大的运营难题，而且运力远低于疫情前水平。因此，市场随时会受到供应链中断的影响。
“从我们真正开始关注本次疫情对全球货运市场的影响时起已经过去了两年，由此给供应侧带来的制约仍然非常显著，”敦豪全球货运亚太区首席执行官Kelvin Leung说道。
中国抗疫政策给复苏涂上一层灰色
正如先前所述的那样，中国严格的疫情清零政策使国家经济发展陷入停顿状态，还影响了地区和全球供应链的运行效率。
3月初，华南地区为了应对奥密克戎毒株爆发采取了一系列广泛的封锁措施，再次扰乱了港口、机场、制造业产量和出口能力。从3月18日开始，在严格的管控措施下，上海浦东机场的入境旅客服务已经关闭了六周，航班被转移到另外13个城市，以便阻止新新冠肺炎病例的传播。
主要负责处理香港中转货物的深圳机场也在努力应对激增的新冠肺炎病例，导致机场于3月中旬关闭。
“虽然我们预计腹舱运力有一些恢复的迹象，但实际情况是各企业必须为不断变化的全球形势做好准备，”Leung补充道。
[wysiwyg] => wysiwyg
[outbound_box] => outbound_box
[Further disruptions and increased air freight rates are expected as the Ukraine situation evolves. With parts of China under strict Covid-19 lockdowns, and the evolving situation in Ukraine causing overflight issues as well as bumping up surcharges and fuel costs, the air freight market tightened considerably in March.
Despite a number of bright signs in the early months of this year, further disruptions are now to be expected as geopolitical uncertainty clouds the economic and trading outlook.
Even as some markets in Asia are starting to open up, there are still tremendous operational challenges and capacity remains far lower than pre-pandemic days. This leaves the market open to supply chain disruptions.
“It’s been two years since we really started seeing how this pandemic was impacting global freight markets and the supply side limitations it caused are still pronounced,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.
China’s Covid-19 policy puts a damper on recovery
As this column has recounted previously, China’s severe zero-Covid-19 policy is putting a handbrake on national economic growth, on top of regional and global supply chain efficiency.
A string of extensive lockdowns in southern China in response to an outbreak of the Omicron variant again disrupted ports, airports, manufacturing output and export capacity in early March. Strict rules have since closed Shanghai’s Pudong airport to inbound passenger services for six weeks from 18 March, with flights diverted to 13 other cities in a bid to stop the spread of new Covid-19 cases.
Shenzhen airport, which picks up cargo usually handled at Hong Kong, is also struggling with a surge in Covid-19 cases, which led to the airport’s closure in mid-March.
“While we were expecting some signs of recovery in bellyhold capacity, the reality is that businesses have to be prepared for ever-changing global situations,” added Leung.
RELATED ARTICLESChina casts a pall over air cargo capacityFlight cancellations due to Covid-19 outbreaks across various Chinese airports will further impact operations in 2022.Uncertainties from developing situation in Europe
Meanwhile, the situation in Ukraine is also a major shock to the supply chain. The market has lost access to swathes of air space, leading to longer routings. There are also a number of Russian carriers that are no longer active in the market, causing further global capacity headaches in such a tight market.
“The war in Ukraine is another example of an external event of which the air cargo industry has no control over, but which is having a profound impact, as happened with Covid-19,” said Niall van de Wouw, Managing Director of CLIVE Data Services.
Air cargo trucking services might also be affected as numerous Ukrainian drivers – which form an important share of the truck drivers in Europe – have decided to go back to their home country.
“When we consider the recovery of the aviation industry from the pandemic, the return of passengers is still a big question mark. The war in Ukraine presents another big question mark,” added van de Wouw.
Another market factor to consider is the energy price increase, which translates to higher fuel costs. This has in turn led to an increase in fuel surcharges (FSC) and security surcharges (SSC) to cover the higher cost of jet fuel and additional operational costs due to rerouting.
All of this puts upward pressure on rates which is seen on most lanes out of Asia to the U.S. and Europe. Costs have also been rising as carriers introduce a range of war risk surcharges.
“Airspace closures because of the conflict in Ukraine have resulted in a 25 percent drop in direct air cargo capacity between Europe and North East Asia,” notes the March DHL Airfreight State of the Industry report.
The report also noted that additional air cargo capacity to Japan was taken out of the market due to the Ukraine situation. However, freighter capacity on other trade lanes has thus far seen only a minor impact, but space remains very tight.
RELATED ARTICLESScheduling difficulties abound for ocean freightOngoing port congestions and an evolving situation in Ukraine are contributing to further uncertainties.Goodbye to normality?
The dual shocks of more lockdowns in China and war in Europe came just as there were signs of normality returning to the market this year. A number of Asian countries have lifted travel and transport restrictions, along with key global markets opening up once more.
The global air cargo market had continued trying to catch up with pre-pandemic levels in February as freight volumes, capacity and load factors stabilised close to 2019’s performance. This was also accompanied by rates also slowly trending downwards, according to the latest data from CLIVE Data Services.
According to analysis by CLIVE, global chargeable air cargo weight in February 2022 was -0.7 percent compared to the pre-Covid-19 level in 2019, and +2.6 percent compared to February 2021. Meanwhile, market capacity for the same period in 2022 stood at -5.4 percent and +6.9 percent compared to 2019 and 2021 figures.
The analyst firm reported that after the peak season in November 2021 and December 2021, quieter market conditions at the start of the year saw overall rates ease for a second consecutive month. “Rates, while still very high, were seen to be slowly winding down in February as capacity returned to the market and the stress on supply chains seen over the past two years began to ease,” it added.
However, the ongoing situation Ukraine means the market will remain uncertain for a while, with the loss of Asia-Europe capacity, overflight issues and higher fuel prices casting a lengthy shadow.
“A fragile global air cargo supply chain is already sensitive to minor shocks. War in Europe and its resulting sanctions could turn the industry upside down once again, just at the time when the Covid-19 impact was looking more under control. We remain in volatile and uncertain times,” said van de Wouw.
Customers are advised to check on the viability of using other routes. “We are monitoring the situation and constantly advising customers on alternative routes to meet their shipping needs,” said Leung.] =>
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