Array
(
[derick] => Array
(
[More uncertainties abound due to war in Ukraine and lockdowns in China.] => 俄乌战争和中国封控措施带来更多不确定因素。
[[]] =>
[Dual disruptions put a damper on air freight movement] => dual-disruptions-damper-air-freight-movement
[The second market disruption is, of course, ongoing Covid-19 lockdowns in China. This has affected airport operations, most notably in Shanghai, but also in other parts of the country. Even where carriers are flying, the closure of trucking services, warehouses and factories is preventing cargo from being presented for loading. “The rise in cases in cities surrounding Shanghai could lead to extended lockdowns into May,” notes the April DHL Air Freight Market Update.
The DHL Hong Kong Air Trade Leading Index (DTI) suffered sharp declines in both exports and imports in Q2 “due to the latest Covid-19 pandemic wave in Hong Kong”. More than half of local air traders reported delays in shipment and lower shipment volume due to manufacturing disruption during the Omicron outbreak.
“The Shanghai Pudong Airport (PVG) situation is still difficult and the spillover effect to other airports is now getting more apparent,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.
However, underlying demand out of China remains undiminished and many economic indicators, including a global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) of above 50, suggest the medium-term outlook is positive.
“We see lockdowns likely continuing in the first half of May but once they are eased – an outcome which increases in likelihood as we approach summer - then factories and export markets will bounce back.
“There are plenty of indications that there is unmet demand at the moment. So backlogs are likely and we suggest customers book space early,” said Leung.] => 第二个市场干扰因素自然是中国各地持续采取的新冠疫情封控措施。这些措施影响了机场的运作，尤其是上海，也包括中国其他地方。即使在承运商仍在运营的地方，货车运输服务、仓库和工厂的关闭也阻碍了货物的装载。“上海周边城市病例数量不断增加，有可能导致封锁延长到今年5月，”《4月DHL航空货运市场最新消息》指出。
在第二季度，“由于香港最近爆发新冠肺炎疫情”，DHL香港空运贸易领先指数（DTI）在进出口两方面都急剧下跌。奥密克戎爆发期间，生产中断导致当地一半以上的航空贸易商称出货发生延迟而且出货量有所减少。
“上海浦东机场（PVG）的情况仍然非常困难，对其他机场的溢出效应现在更加明显了，”DHL全球货运亚太区首席执行官Kelvin Leung说道。
然而，中国境外的基本需求仍未减少，很多经济指标――包括超过50的全球采购经理人指数（PMI）――表明中期前景仍是积极的。
“我们预计5月的上半个月内很可能继续封锁，而一旦解封――随着夏季的临近，这个可能性越来越大——那么工厂和出口市场就会很快恢复运转。
“很多迹象表明目前仍有需求未被满足，因此很可能存在积压订单，我们建议客户及早预订舱位，”Leung说道。
[Rates remain high even as it softens from low demand
Such has been the loss of export cargo from China that air cargo rates, mirroring ocean spot rates, lost some of their steam in April on East-West trades despite the decline in capacity due to war in Europe.
However, even though rates out of China have fallen substantially since the peak season in late 2021, they remain high and extremely volatile. This is especially so with fuel prices reaching as high as USD 152 per barrel in April 2022, according to the April DHL Air Freight Market Update.
The same update also notes that in February 2022, rates globally were +105 percent higher, or more than double, than the 2019 baseline. This is expected to remain high for the foreseeable future due to rising oil prices, reduced capacity and war surcharges. Moreover, transit times are expected to get longer as re-routings due to war in Europe further impact service schedules.
“Other market factors such as the labor shortage across major airports in Europe are further affecting transit times,” added Leung. “In light of these developments, it would be prudent to add more buffer time in movement plans.”
More pressure on air freight capacity
Bruce Chan, Director & Senior Analyst, Global Logistics & Future Mobility Equity Research at Stifel, believes armed conflict in Ukraine will continue to put upward pressure on air cargo pricing in the near term by limiting capacity.
“Other events and developments like Covid-19 resurgence may push near-term demand lower temporarily, but ultimately produce volatility as Chinese production and operations snap back,” he noted in a report for the Baltic Exchange.
“Further outbreaks in major consumption geographies could also swing pricing and capacity further.”
Chan said that while events of the past few years suggested it was wise to consider as many angles as possible, he argued it was important to remember that, despite micro swings in the market, a cataclysmic world event – Covid-19 – had created the current market situation and it may require an equally sharp shift in demand to push the market back to what it was pre-pandemic.
“We can talk about sequential, month-over-month, week-over-week, or year-over-year changes in the data,” he added. “But on a multi-year scale, current pricing is still multiples of pre-pandemic levels: 2.5× higher on Shanghai to Europe, 2.7× higher on Shanghai to North America, 2× higher on Hong Kong to Europe, and 2.3× higher on Hong Kong to North America.
“With no quick fix on the supply side, we believe we will need to see an equally cataclysmic shift in demand to the downside to see a rapid return to prior levels,” said Chan.] =>
Stifel公司全球物流和未来交通公平研究主任兼首席分析师Bruce Chan认为，发生在乌克兰的武装冲突将导致运力受限，从而给近期的航空货运定价带来上行压力。
“疫情反复等其他事件和动态可能会暂时抑制近期需求，但随着中国恢复生产和经营，最终会引起波动，”他在提交给波罗的海交易所的报告中提到。
“主要消费国爆发新一轮疫情还可能会导致运价和运力进一步震荡。”
Chan说道，虽然过去几年内发生的事件表明，尽可能多角度考虑问题是一种明智的做法，但他认为人们必须记住，尽管市场中发生了小幅震荡，但目前的市场状况是由灾难性的全球事件――新冠肺炎疫情――导致的，可能需要同样急剧的需求转变才能使市场恢复疫情爆发前的水平。
“我们可以谈论数据随时间的变化以及各月、各周和各年之间的变化，”他补充道。“但从多年经验来看，目前运价仍是疫情前水平的数倍之多：上海到欧洲路线增长了2.5倍，上海到北美路线增长了2.7倍，香港到欧洲路线增长了2倍，香港到北美路线增长了2.3倍。
“由于供应侧无法快速恢复，我们认为需求会朝不利方向发生同样灾难性的转变，然后才会快速恢复到以前水平，”Chan说道。
[Global air cargo is currently dominated by two major disruptions – one to the supply of capacity and the other to demand, or at least to the availability of cargo.
Firstly, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has resulted in air space restrictions and closures that have prompted a number of carriers to pull out of services to Asia due to the increased cost. A wave of sanctions has also effectively removed the Russian freighter fleet as an option on most trade lanes. The cumulative effect has been to reduce global freight capacity.] => 目前，全球航空货运受到两大因素干扰――分别影响了运力供应和需求，或者至少是货物可得性受到扰乱。
首先，俄罗斯入侵乌克兰导致空域受到限制和封闭，促使多家承运商由于成本上涨取消了对亚洲的空运服务。在大多数贸易航线中，因为各国对俄制裁，也实际上将俄罗斯货运机队排除在外。其累积效果是降低了全球货运能力。
[wysiwyg] => wysiwyg
[outbound_box] => outbound_box
[More uncertainties abound due to war in Ukraine and lockdowns in China. Global air cargo is currently dominated by two major disruptions – one to the supply of capacity and the other to demand, or at least to the availability of cargo.
Firstly, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has resulted in air space restrictions and closures that have prompted a number of carriers to pull out of services to Asia due to the increased cost. A wave of sanctions has also effectively removed the Russian freighter fleet as an option on most trade lanes. The cumulative effect has been to reduce global freight capacity.
RELATED ARTICLESUkraine war impacts ocean freight, but limited to European regionGlobal factors, including further Covid-19 restrictions in China, will continue to put a damper on the supply chain.The second market disruption is, of course, ongoing Covid-19 lockdowns in China. This has affected airport operations, most notably in Shanghai, but also in other parts of the country. Even where carriers are flying, the closure of trucking services, warehouses and factories is preventing cargo from being presented for loading. “The rise in cases in cities surrounding Shanghai could lead to extended lockdowns into May,” notes the April DHL Air Freight Market Update.
The DHL Hong Kong Air Trade Leading Index (DTI) suffered sharp declines in both exports and imports in Q2 “due to the latest Covid-19 pandemic wave in Hong Kong”. More than half of local air traders reported delays in shipment and lower shipment volume due to manufacturing disruption during the Omicron outbreak.
“The Shanghai Pudong Airport (PVG) situation is still difficult and the spillover effect to other airports is now getting more apparent,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.
However, underlying demand out of China remains undiminished and many economic indicators, including a global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) of above 50, suggest the medium-term outlook is positive.
“We see lockdowns likely continuing in the first half of May but once they are eased – an outcome which increases in likelihood as we approach summer – then factories and export markets will bounce back.
“There are plenty of indications that there is unmet demand at the moment. So backlogs are likely and we suggest customers book space early,” said Leung.
RELATED ARTICLESDHL Air Freight State of the Industry – April 2022Find out the latest developments of the global air freight market in this monthly analysis by DHL Global Forwarding.Rates remain high even as it softens from low demand
Such has been the loss of export cargo from China that air cargo rates, mirroring ocean spot rates, lost some of their steam in April on East-West trades despite the decline in capacity due to war in Europe.
However, even though rates out of China have fallen substantially since the peak season in late 2021, they remain high and extremely volatile. This is especially so with fuel prices reaching as high as USD 152 per barrel in April 2022, according to the April DHL Air Freight Market Update.
The same update also notes that in February 2022, rates globally were +105 percent higher, or more than double, than the 2019 baseline. This is expected to remain high for the foreseeable future due to rising oil prices, reduced capacity and war surcharges. Moreover, transit times are expected to get longer as re-routings due to war in Europe further impact service schedules.
“Other market factors such as the labor shortage across major airports in Europe are further affecting transit times,” added Leung. “In light of these developments, it would be prudent to add more buffer time in movement plans.”
More pressure on air freight capacity
Bruce Chan, Director & Senior Analyst, Global Logistics & Future Mobility Equity Research at Stifel, believes armed conflict in Ukraine will continue to put upward pressure on air cargo pricing in the near term by limiting capacity.
“Other events and developments like Covid-19 resurgence may push near-term demand lower temporarily, but ultimately produce volatility as Chinese production and operations snap back,” he noted in a report for the Baltic Exchange.
“Further outbreaks in major consumption geographies could also swing pricing and capacity further.”
Chan said that while events of the past few years suggested it was wise to consider as many angles as possible, he argued it was important to remember that, despite micro swings in the market, a cataclysmic world event – Covid-19 – had created the current market situation and it may require an equally sharp shift in demand to push the market back to what it was pre-pandemic.
“We can talk about sequential, month-over-month, week-over-week, or year-over-year changes in the data,” he added. “But on a multi-year scale, current pricing is still multiples of pre-pandemic levels: 2.5× higher on Shanghai to Europe, 2.7× higher on Shanghai to North America, 2× higher on Hong Kong to Europe, and 2.3× higher on Hong Kong to North America.
“With no quick fix on the supply side, we believe we will need to see an equally cataclysmic shift in demand to the downside to see a rapid return to prior levels,” said Chan.] =>
[] =>
[dual-disruptions-damper-air-freight-movement] => dual-disruptions-damper-air-freight-movement
[Ocean Freight Congestions 1200x630] => Ocean Freight Congestions 1200x630
[202204-Airfreight-State-of-the-Industry-key-image] => 202204-Airfreight-State-of-the-Industry-key-image
[DHL Air Freight State of the Industry – April 2022] => DHL Air Freight State of the Industry – April 2022
[dual-disruptions-damper-air-freight-movement-single-column] => dual-disruptions-damper-air-freight-movement-single-column
[dual-disruptions-damper-air-freight-movement-key-image] => dual-disruptions-damper-air-freight-movement-key-image
)
[$value] => Global air cargo is currently dominated by two major disruptions – one to the supply of capacity and the other to demand, or at least to the availability of cargo.
Firstly, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has resulted in air space restrictions and closures that have prompted a number of carriers to pull out of services to Asia due to the increased cost. A wave of sanctions has also effectively removed the Russian freighter fleet as an option on most trade lanes. The cumulative effect has been to reduce global freight capacity.
)
Array
(
[derick] => Array
(
[More uncertainties abound due to war in Ukraine and lockdowns in China.] => 俄乌战争和中国封控措施带来更多不确定因素。
[[]] =>
[Dual disruptions put a damper on air freight movement] => dual-disruptions-damper-air-freight-movement
[The second market disruption is, of course, ongoing Covid-19 lockdowns in China. This has affected airport operations, most notably in Shanghai, but also in other parts of the country. Even where carriers are flying, the closure of trucking services, warehouses and factories is preventing cargo from being presented for loading. “The rise in cases in cities surrounding Shanghai could lead to extended lockdowns into May,” notes the April DHL Air Freight Market Update.
The DHL Hong Kong Air Trade Leading Index (DTI) suffered sharp declines in both exports and imports in Q2 “due to the latest Covid-19 pandemic wave in Hong Kong”. More than half of local air traders reported delays in shipment and lower shipment volume due to manufacturing disruption during the Omicron outbreak.
“The Shanghai Pudong Airport (PVG) situation is still difficult and the spillover effect to other airports is now getting more apparent,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.
However, underlying demand out of China remains undiminished and many economic indicators, including a global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) of above 50, suggest the medium-term outlook is positive.
“We see lockdowns likely continuing in the first half of May but once they are eased – an outcome which increases in likelihood as we approach summer - then factories and export markets will bounce back.
“There are plenty of indications that there is unmet demand at the moment. So backlogs are likely and we suggest customers book space early,” said Leung.] => 第二个市场干扰因素自然是中国各地持续采取的新冠疫情封控措施。这些措施影响了机场的运作，尤其是上海，也包括中国其他地方。即使在承运商仍在运营的地方，货车运输服务、仓库和工厂的关闭也阻碍了货物的装载。“上海周边城市病例数量不断增加，有可能导致封锁延长到今年5月，”《4月DHL航空货运市场最新消息》指出。
在第二季度，“由于香港最近爆发新冠肺炎疫情”，DHL香港空运贸易领先指数（DTI）在进出口两方面都急剧下跌。奥密克戎爆发期间，生产中断导致当地一半以上的航空贸易商称出货发生延迟而且出货量有所减少。
“上海浦东机场（PVG）的情况仍然非常困难，对其他机场的溢出效应现在更加明显了，”DHL全球货运亚太区首席执行官Kelvin Leung说道。
然而，中国境外的基本需求仍未减少，很多经济指标――包括超过50的全球采购经理人指数（PMI）――表明中期前景仍是积极的。
“我们预计5月的上半个月内很可能继续封锁，而一旦解封――随着夏季的临近，这个可能性越来越大——那么工厂和出口市场就会很快恢复运转。
“很多迹象表明目前仍有需求未被满足，因此很可能存在积压订单，我们建议客户及早预订舱位，”Leung说道。
[Rates remain high even as it softens from low demand
Such has been the loss of export cargo from China that air cargo rates, mirroring ocean spot rates, lost some of their steam in April on East-West trades despite the decline in capacity due to war in Europe.
However, even though rates out of China have fallen substantially since the peak season in late 2021, they remain high and extremely volatile. This is especially so with fuel prices reaching as high as USD 152 per barrel in April 2022, according to the April DHL Air Freight Market Update.
The same update also notes that in February 2022, rates globally were +105 percent higher, or more than double, than the 2019 baseline. This is expected to remain high for the foreseeable future due to rising oil prices, reduced capacity and war surcharges. Moreover, transit times are expected to get longer as re-routings due to war in Europe further impact service schedules.
“Other market factors such as the labor shortage across major airports in Europe are further affecting transit times,” added Leung. “In light of these developments, it would be prudent to add more buffer time in movement plans.”
More pressure on air freight capacity
Bruce Chan, Director & Senior Analyst, Global Logistics & Future Mobility Equity Research at Stifel, believes armed conflict in Ukraine will continue to put upward pressure on air cargo pricing in the near term by limiting capacity.
“Other events and developments like Covid-19 resurgence may push near-term demand lower temporarily, but ultimately produce volatility as Chinese production and operations snap back,” he noted in a report for the Baltic Exchange.
“Further outbreaks in major consumption geographies could also swing pricing and capacity further.”
Chan said that while events of the past few years suggested it was wise to consider as many angles as possible, he argued it was important to remember that, despite micro swings in the market, a cataclysmic world event – Covid-19 – had created the current market situation and it may require an equally sharp shift in demand to push the market back to what it was pre-pandemic.
“We can talk about sequential, month-over-month, week-over-week, or year-over-year changes in the data,” he added. “But on a multi-year scale, current pricing is still multiples of pre-pandemic levels: 2.5× higher on Shanghai to Europe, 2.7× higher on Shanghai to North America, 2× higher on Hong Kong to Europe, and 2.3× higher on Hong Kong to North America.
“With no quick fix on the supply side, we believe we will need to see an equally cataclysmic shift in demand to the downside to see a rapid return to prior levels,” said Chan.] =>
Stifel公司全球物流和未来交通公平研究主任兼首席分析师Bruce Chan认为，发生在乌克兰的武装冲突将导致运力受限，从而给近期的航空货运定价带来上行压力。
“疫情反复等其他事件和动态可能会暂时抑制近期需求，但随着中国恢复生产和经营，最终会引起波动，”他在提交给波罗的海交易所的报告中提到。
“主要消费国爆发新一轮疫情还可能会导致运价和运力进一步震荡。”
Chan说道，虽然过去几年内发生的事件表明，尽可能多角度考虑问题是一种明智的做法，但他认为人们必须记住，尽管市场中发生了小幅震荡，但目前的市场状况是由灾难性的全球事件――新冠肺炎疫情――导致的，可能需要同样急剧的需求转变才能使市场恢复疫情爆发前的水平。
“我们可以谈论数据随时间的变化以及各月、各周和各年之间的变化，”他补充道。“但从多年经验来看，目前运价仍是疫情前水平的数倍之多：上海到欧洲路线增长了2.5倍，上海到北美路线增长了2.7倍，香港到欧洲路线增长了2倍，香港到北美路线增长了2.3倍。
“由于供应侧无法快速恢复，我们认为需求会朝不利方向发生同样灾难性的转变，然后才会快速恢复到以前水平，”Chan说道。
[Global air cargo is currently dominated by two major disruptions – one to the supply of capacity and the other to demand, or at least to the availability of cargo.
Firstly, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has resulted in air space restrictions and closures that have prompted a number of carriers to pull out of services to Asia due to the increased cost. A wave of sanctions has also effectively removed the Russian freighter fleet as an option on most trade lanes. The cumulative effect has been to reduce global freight capacity.] => 目前，全球航空货运受到两大因素干扰――分别影响了运力供应和需求，或者至少是货物可得性受到扰乱。
首先，俄罗斯入侵乌克兰导致空域受到限制和封闭，促使多家承运商由于成本上涨取消了对亚洲的空运服务。在大多数贸易航线中，因为各国对俄制裁，也实际上将俄罗斯货运机队排除在外。其累积效果是降低了全球货运能力。
[wysiwyg] => wysiwyg
[outbound_box] => outbound_box
[More uncertainties abound due to war in Ukraine and lockdowns in China. Global air cargo is currently dominated by two major disruptions – one to the supply of capacity and the other to demand, or at least to the availability of cargo.
Firstly, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has resulted in air space restrictions and closures that have prompted a number of carriers to pull out of services to Asia due to the increased cost. A wave of sanctions has also effectively removed the Russian freighter fleet as an option on most trade lanes. The cumulative effect has been to reduce global freight capacity.
RELATED ARTICLESUkraine war impacts ocean freight, but limited to European regionGlobal factors, including further Covid-19 restrictions in China, will continue to put a damper on the supply chain.The second market disruption is, of course, ongoing Covid-19 lockdowns in China. This has affected airport operations, most notably in Shanghai, but also in other parts of the country. Even where carriers are flying, the closure of trucking services, warehouses and factories is preventing cargo from being presented for loading. “The rise in cases in cities surrounding Shanghai could lead to extended lockdowns into May,” notes the April DHL Air Freight Market Update.
The DHL Hong Kong Air Trade Leading Index (DTI) suffered sharp declines in both exports and imports in Q2 “due to the latest Covid-19 pandemic wave in Hong Kong”. More than half of local air traders reported delays in shipment and lower shipment volume due to manufacturing disruption during the Omicron outbreak.
“The Shanghai Pudong Airport (PVG) situation is still difficult and the spillover effect to other airports is now getting more apparent,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.
However, underlying demand out of China remains undiminished and many economic indicators, including a global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) of above 50, suggest the medium-term outlook is positive.
“We see lockdowns likely continuing in the first half of May but once they are eased – an outcome which increases in likelihood as we approach summer – then factories and export markets will bounce back.
“There are plenty of indications that there is unmet demand at the moment. So backlogs are likely and we suggest customers book space early,” said Leung.
RELATED ARTICLESDHL Air Freight State of the Industry – April 2022Find out the latest developments of the global air freight market in this monthly analysis by DHL Global Forwarding.Rates remain high even as it softens from low demand
Such has been the loss of export cargo from China that air cargo rates, mirroring ocean spot rates, lost some of their steam in April on East-West trades despite the decline in capacity due to war in Europe.
However, even though rates out of China have fallen substantially since the peak season in late 2021, they remain high and extremely volatile. This is especially so with fuel prices reaching as high as USD 152 per barrel in April 2022, according to the April DHL Air Freight Market Update.
The same update also notes that in February 2022, rates globally were +105 percent higher, or more than double, than the 2019 baseline. This is expected to remain high for the foreseeable future due to rising oil prices, reduced capacity and war surcharges. Moreover, transit times are expected to get longer as re-routings due to war in Europe further impact service schedules.
“Other market factors such as the labor shortage across major airports in Europe are further affecting transit times,” added Leung. “In light of these developments, it would be prudent to add more buffer time in movement plans.”
More pressure on air freight capacity
Bruce Chan, Director & Senior Analyst, Global Logistics & Future Mobility Equity Research at Stifel, believes armed conflict in Ukraine will continue to put upward pressure on air cargo pricing in the near term by limiting capacity.
“Other events and developments like Covid-19 resurgence may push near-term demand lower temporarily, but ultimately produce volatility as Chinese production and operations snap back,” he noted in a report for the Baltic Exchange.
“Further outbreaks in major consumption geographies could also swing pricing and capacity further.”
Chan said that while events of the past few years suggested it was wise to consider as many angles as possible, he argued it was important to remember that, despite micro swings in the market, a cataclysmic world event – Covid-19 – had created the current market situation and it may require an equally sharp shift in demand to push the market back to what it was pre-pandemic.
“We can talk about sequential, month-over-month, week-over-week, or year-over-year changes in the data,” he added. “But on a multi-year scale, current pricing is still multiples of pre-pandemic levels: 2.5× higher on Shanghai to Europe, 2.7× higher on Shanghai to North America, 2× higher on Hong Kong to Europe, and 2.3× higher on Hong Kong to North America.
“With no quick fix on the supply side, we believe we will need to see an equally cataclysmic shift in demand to the downside to see a rapid return to prior levels,” said Chan.] =>
[] =>
[dual-disruptions-damper-air-freight-movement] => dual-disruptions-damper-air-freight-movement
[Ocean Freight Congestions 1200x630] => Ocean Freight Congestions 1200x630
[202204-Airfreight-State-of-the-Industry-key-image] => 202204-Airfreight-State-of-the-Industry-key-image
[DHL Air Freight State of the Industry – April 2022] => DHL Air Freight State of the Industry – April 2022
[dual-disruptions-damper-air-freight-movement-single-column] => dual-disruptions-damper-air-freight-movement-single-column
[dual-disruptions-damper-air-freight-movement-key-image] => dual-disruptions-damper-air-freight-movement-key-image
)
[$value] => The second market disruption is, of course, ongoing Covid-19 lockdowns in China. This has affected airport operations, most notably in Shanghai, but also in other parts of the country. Even where carriers are flying, the closure of trucking services, warehouses and factories is preventing cargo from being presented for loading. “The rise in cases in cities surrounding Shanghai could lead to extended lockdowns into May,” notes the April DHL Air Freight Market Update.
The DHL Hong Kong Air Trade Leading Index (DTI) suffered sharp declines in both exports and imports in Q2 “due to the latest Covid-19 pandemic wave in Hong Kong”. More than half of local air traders reported delays in shipment and lower shipment volume due to manufacturing disruption during the Omicron outbreak.
“The Shanghai Pudong Airport (PVG) situation is still difficult and the spillover effect to other airports is now getting more apparent,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.
However, underlying demand out of China remains undiminished and many economic indicators, including a global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) of above 50, suggest the medium-term outlook is positive.
“We see lockdowns likely continuing in the first half of May but once they are eased – an outcome which increases in likelihood as we approach summer - then factories and export markets will bounce back.
“There are plenty of indications that there is unmet demand at the moment. So backlogs are likely and we suggest customers book space early,” said Leung.
)
Array
(
[derick] => Array
(
[More uncertainties abound due to war in Ukraine and lockdowns in China.] => 俄乌战争和中国封控措施带来更多不确定因素。
[[]] =>
[Dual disruptions put a damper on air freight movement] => dual-disruptions-damper-air-freight-movement
[The second market disruption is, of course, ongoing Covid-19 lockdowns in China. This has affected airport operations, most notably in Shanghai, but also in other parts of the country. Even where carriers are flying, the closure of trucking services, warehouses and factories is preventing cargo from being presented for loading. “The rise in cases in cities surrounding Shanghai could lead to extended lockdowns into May,” notes the April DHL Air Freight Market Update.
The DHL Hong Kong Air Trade Leading Index (DTI) suffered sharp declines in both exports and imports in Q2 “due to the latest Covid-19 pandemic wave in Hong Kong”. More than half of local air traders reported delays in shipment and lower shipment volume due to manufacturing disruption during the Omicron outbreak.
“The Shanghai Pudong Airport (PVG) situation is still difficult and the spillover effect to other airports is now getting more apparent,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.
However, underlying demand out of China remains undiminished and many economic indicators, including a global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) of above 50, suggest the medium-term outlook is positive.
“We see lockdowns likely continuing in the first half of May but once they are eased – an outcome which increases in likelihood as we approach summer - then factories and export markets will bounce back.
“There are plenty of indications that there is unmet demand at the moment. So backlogs are likely and we suggest customers book space early,” said Leung.] => 第二个市场干扰因素自然是中国各地持续采取的新冠疫情封控措施。这些措施影响了机场的运作，尤其是上海，也包括中国其他地方。即使在承运商仍在运营的地方，货车运输服务、仓库和工厂的关闭也阻碍了货物的装载。“上海周边城市病例数量不断增加，有可能导致封锁延长到今年5月，”《4月DHL航空货运市场最新消息》指出。
在第二季度，“由于香港最近爆发新冠肺炎疫情”，DHL香港空运贸易领先指数（DTI）在进出口两方面都急剧下跌。奥密克戎爆发期间，生产中断导致当地一半以上的航空贸易商称出货发生延迟而且出货量有所减少。
“上海浦东机场（PVG）的情况仍然非常困难，对其他机场的溢出效应现在更加明显了，”DHL全球货运亚太区首席执行官Kelvin Leung说道。
然而，中国境外的基本需求仍未减少，很多经济指标――包括超过50的全球采购经理人指数（PMI）――表明中期前景仍是积极的。
“我们预计5月的上半个月内很可能继续封锁，而一旦解封――随着夏季的临近，这个可能性越来越大——那么工厂和出口市场就会很快恢复运转。
“很多迹象表明目前仍有需求未被满足，因此很可能存在积压订单，我们建议客户及早预订舱位，”Leung说道。
[Rates remain high even as it softens from low demand
Such has been the loss of export cargo from China that air cargo rates, mirroring ocean spot rates, lost some of their steam in April on East-West trades despite the decline in capacity due to war in Europe.
However, even though rates out of China have fallen substantially since the peak season in late 2021, they remain high and extremely volatile. This is especially so with fuel prices reaching as high as USD 152 per barrel in April 2022, according to the April DHL Air Freight Market Update.
The same update also notes that in February 2022, rates globally were +105 percent higher, or more than double, than the 2019 baseline. This is expected to remain high for the foreseeable future due to rising oil prices, reduced capacity and war surcharges. Moreover, transit times are expected to get longer as re-routings due to war in Europe further impact service schedules.
“Other market factors such as the labor shortage across major airports in Europe are further affecting transit times,” added Leung. “In light of these developments, it would be prudent to add more buffer time in movement plans.”
More pressure on air freight capacity
Bruce Chan, Director & Senior Analyst, Global Logistics & Future Mobility Equity Research at Stifel, believes armed conflict in Ukraine will continue to put upward pressure on air cargo pricing in the near term by limiting capacity.
“Other events and developments like Covid-19 resurgence may push near-term demand lower temporarily, but ultimately produce volatility as Chinese production and operations snap back,” he noted in a report for the Baltic Exchange.
“Further outbreaks in major consumption geographies could also swing pricing and capacity further.”
Chan said that while events of the past few years suggested it was wise to consider as many angles as possible, he argued it was important to remember that, despite micro swings in the market, a cataclysmic world event – Covid-19 – had created the current market situation and it may require an equally sharp shift in demand to push the market back to what it was pre-pandemic.
“We can talk about sequential, month-over-month, week-over-week, or year-over-year changes in the data,” he added. “But on a multi-year scale, current pricing is still multiples of pre-pandemic levels: 2.5× higher on Shanghai to Europe, 2.7× higher on Shanghai to North America, 2× higher on Hong Kong to Europe, and 2.3× higher on Hong Kong to North America.
“With no quick fix on the supply side, we believe we will need to see an equally cataclysmic shift in demand to the downside to see a rapid return to prior levels,” said Chan.] =>
Stifel公司全球物流和未来交通公平研究主任兼首席分析师Bruce Chan认为，发生在乌克兰的武装冲突将导致运力受限，从而给近期的航空货运定价带来上行压力。
“疫情反复等其他事件和动态可能会暂时抑制近期需求，但随着中国恢复生产和经营，最终会引起波动，”他在提交给波罗的海交易所的报告中提到。
“主要消费国爆发新一轮疫情还可能会导致运价和运力进一步震荡。”
Chan说道，虽然过去几年内发生的事件表明，尽可能多角度考虑问题是一种明智的做法，但他认为人们必须记住，尽管市场中发生了小幅震荡，但目前的市场状况是由灾难性的全球事件――新冠肺炎疫情――导致的，可能需要同样急剧的需求转变才能使市场恢复疫情爆发前的水平。
“我们可以谈论数据随时间的变化以及各月、各周和各年之间的变化，”他补充道。“但从多年经验来看，目前运价仍是疫情前水平的数倍之多：上海到欧洲路线增长了2.5倍，上海到北美路线增长了2.7倍，香港到欧洲路线增长了2倍，香港到北美路线增长了2.3倍。
“由于供应侧无法快速恢复，我们认为需求会朝不利方向发生同样灾难性的转变，然后才会快速恢复到以前水平，”Chan说道。
[Global air cargo is currently dominated by two major disruptions – one to the supply of capacity and the other to demand, or at least to the availability of cargo.
Firstly, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has resulted in air space restrictions and closures that have prompted a number of carriers to pull out of services to Asia due to the increased cost. A wave of sanctions has also effectively removed the Russian freighter fleet as an option on most trade lanes. The cumulative effect has been to reduce global freight capacity.] => 目前，全球航空货运受到两大因素干扰――分别影响了运力供应和需求，或者至少是货物可得性受到扰乱。
首先，俄罗斯入侵乌克兰导致空域受到限制和封闭，促使多家承运商由于成本上涨取消了对亚洲的空运服务。在大多数贸易航线中，因为各国对俄制裁，也实际上将俄罗斯货运机队排除在外。其累积效果是降低了全球货运能力。
[wysiwyg] => wysiwyg
[outbound_box] => outbound_box
[More uncertainties abound due to war in Ukraine and lockdowns in China. Global air cargo is currently dominated by two major disruptions – one to the supply of capacity and the other to demand, or at least to the availability of cargo.
Firstly, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has resulted in air space restrictions and closures that have prompted a number of carriers to pull out of services to Asia due to the increased cost. A wave of sanctions has also effectively removed the Russian freighter fleet as an option on most trade lanes. The cumulative effect has been to reduce global freight capacity.
RELATED ARTICLESUkraine war impacts ocean freight, but limited to European regionGlobal factors, including further Covid-19 restrictions in China, will continue to put a damper on the supply chain.The second market disruption is, of course, ongoing Covid-19 lockdowns in China. This has affected airport operations, most notably in Shanghai, but also in other parts of the country. Even where carriers are flying, the closure of trucking services, warehouses and factories is preventing cargo from being presented for loading. “The rise in cases in cities surrounding Shanghai could lead to extended lockdowns into May,” notes the April DHL Air Freight Market Update.
The DHL Hong Kong Air Trade Leading Index (DTI) suffered sharp declines in both exports and imports in Q2 “due to the latest Covid-19 pandemic wave in Hong Kong”. More than half of local air traders reported delays in shipment and lower shipment volume due to manufacturing disruption during the Omicron outbreak.
“The Shanghai Pudong Airport (PVG) situation is still difficult and the spillover effect to other airports is now getting more apparent,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.
However, underlying demand out of China remains undiminished and many economic indicators, including a global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) of above 50, suggest the medium-term outlook is positive.
“We see lockdowns likely continuing in the first half of May but once they are eased – an outcome which increases in likelihood as we approach summer – then factories and export markets will bounce back.
“There are plenty of indications that there is unmet demand at the moment. So backlogs are likely and we suggest customers book space early,” said Leung.
RELATED ARTICLESDHL Air Freight State of the Industry – April 2022Find out the latest developments of the global air freight market in this monthly analysis by DHL Global Forwarding.Rates remain high even as it softens from low demand
Such has been the loss of export cargo from China that air cargo rates, mirroring ocean spot rates, lost some of their steam in April on East-West trades despite the decline in capacity due to war in Europe.
However, even though rates out of China have fallen substantially since the peak season in late 2021, they remain high and extremely volatile. This is especially so with fuel prices reaching as high as USD 152 per barrel in April 2022, according to the April DHL Air Freight Market Update.
The same update also notes that in February 2022, rates globally were +105 percent higher, or more than double, than the 2019 baseline. This is expected to remain high for the foreseeable future due to rising oil prices, reduced capacity and war surcharges. Moreover, transit times are expected to get longer as re-routings due to war in Europe further impact service schedules.
“Other market factors such as the labor shortage across major airports in Europe are further affecting transit times,” added Leung. “In light of these developments, it would be prudent to add more buffer time in movement plans.”
More pressure on air freight capacity
Bruce Chan, Director & Senior Analyst, Global Logistics & Future Mobility Equity Research at Stifel, believes armed conflict in Ukraine will continue to put upward pressure on air cargo pricing in the near term by limiting capacity.
“Other events and developments like Covid-19 resurgence may push near-term demand lower temporarily, but ultimately produce volatility as Chinese production and operations snap back,” he noted in a report for the Baltic Exchange.
“Further outbreaks in major consumption geographies could also swing pricing and capacity further.”
Chan said that while events of the past few years suggested it was wise to consider as many angles as possible, he argued it was important to remember that, despite micro swings in the market, a cataclysmic world event – Covid-19 – had created the current market situation and it may require an equally sharp shift in demand to push the market back to what it was pre-pandemic.
“We can talk about sequential, month-over-month, week-over-week, or year-over-year changes in the data,” he added. “But on a multi-year scale, current pricing is still multiples of pre-pandemic levels: 2.5× higher on Shanghai to Europe, 2.7× higher on Shanghai to North America, 2× higher on Hong Kong to Europe, and 2.3× higher on Hong Kong to North America.
“With no quick fix on the supply side, we believe we will need to see an equally cataclysmic shift in demand to the downside to see a rapid return to prior levels,” said Chan.] =>
[] =>
[dual-disruptions-damper-air-freight-movement] => dual-disruptions-damper-air-freight-movement
[Ocean Freight Congestions 1200x630] => Ocean Freight Congestions 1200x630
[202204-Airfreight-State-of-the-Industry-key-image] => 202204-Airfreight-State-of-the-Industry-key-image
[DHL Air Freight State of the Industry – April 2022] => DHL Air Freight State of the Industry – April 2022
[dual-disruptions-damper-air-freight-movement-single-column] => dual-disruptions-damper-air-freight-movement-single-column
[dual-disruptions-damper-air-freight-movement-key-image] => dual-disruptions-damper-air-freight-movement-key-image
)
[$value] =>
Rates remain high even as it softens from low demand
Such has been the loss of export cargo from China that air cargo rates, mirroring ocean spot rates, lost some of their steam in April on East-West trades despite the decline in capacity due to war in Europe.
However, even though rates out of China have fallen substantially since the peak season in late 2021, they remain high and extremely volatile. This is especially so with fuel prices reaching as high as USD 152 per barrel in April 2022, according to the April DHL Air Freight Market Update.
The same update also notes that in February 2022, rates globally were +105 percent higher, or more than double, than the 2019 baseline. This is expected to remain high for the foreseeable future due to rising oil prices, reduced capacity and war surcharges. Moreover, transit times are expected to get longer as re-routings due to war in Europe further impact service schedules.
“Other market factors such as the labor shortage across major airports in Europe are further affecting transit times,” added Leung. “In light of these developments, it would be prudent to add more buffer time in movement plans.”
More pressure on air freight capacity
Bruce Chan, Director & Senior Analyst, Global Logistics & Future Mobility Equity Research at Stifel, believes armed conflict in Ukraine will continue to put upward pressure on air cargo pricing in the near term by limiting capacity.
“Other events and developments like Covid-19 resurgence may push near-term demand lower temporarily, but ultimately produce volatility as Chinese production and operations snap back,” he noted in a report for the Baltic Exchange.
“Further outbreaks in major consumption geographies could also swing pricing and capacity further.”
Chan said that while events of the past few years suggested it was wise to consider as many angles as possible, he argued it was important to remember that, despite micro swings in the market, a cataclysmic world event – Covid-19 – had created the current market situation and it may require an equally sharp shift in demand to push the market back to what it was pre-pandemic.
“We can talk about sequential, month-over-month, week-over-week, or year-over-year changes in the data,” he added. “But on a multi-year scale, current pricing is still multiples of pre-pandemic levels: 2.5× higher on Shanghai to Europe, 2.7× higher on Shanghai to North America, 2× higher on Hong Kong to Europe, and 2.3× higher on Hong Kong to North America.
“With no quick fix on the supply side, we believe we will need to see an equally cataclysmic shift in demand to the downside to see a rapid return to prior levels,” said Chan.
)
Global factors, including further Covid-19 restrictions in China, will continue to put a damper on the supply chain.
In northern Europe, container traffic to and from Russian ports has fallen dramatically due to sanctions imposed on Russia.
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s Black Sea ports are closed, prompting cargo to be diverted to ports in Romania, Turkey, Greece and Italy. The result is port congestion in the region, further complicated as operators and carriers seek to confirm how they should handle Russian shipments under the sanctions regime.
With Russian imports and exports left stranded on quays and in storage, or stuck on vessels, ocean carriers have been forced to re-organize schedules and restrict services to avoid vessel delays in the region.
“For our part, DHL no longer accepts cargo to and from Ukraine, Russia and Belarus. Meanwhile, many major ocean carriers have suspended their services to Russian ports,” said Dominique von Orelli, Global Head, Ocean Freight, DHL Global Forwarding.
Despite port congestions looming on the horizon, the ocean freight situation is less severe than its air counterpart, which has seen significantly longer transit times due to airspace closures.
“Contrary to the situation in airfreight, the impact on the ocean freight market due to the ongoing situation in Ukraine is largely limited to the European region,” added von Orelli.
The war in Ukraine, however, is only part of an evolving global situation. The ongoing Covid-19 pandemic is still very much disrupting the global supply chain, which is facing further restrictions outside of Europe.
Port congestion is blighting container ship scheduling beyond northern Europe, with delays globally soaking up shipping capacity. In China, strict lockdowns and Covid-related absences from work continue to disrupt exports, factory output, warehouse and distribution centre operations, and trucking service availability.
“Even with ports formally open, the lack of terminal handling staff and the expected trucking delays could force carriers to skip numerous Pearl-River Delta calls or keep vessels waiting, thus causing major delays,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.
The lockdown of Shanghai is also disrupting cargo flows and it is not clear at this stage how long the city’s terminals and transport network will try to operate under these conditions.
Port congestion and vessel delays persist
According to supply chain analyst firm Sea-Intelligence, some 13.7 percent of the global container fleet was “not available” in January due to port congestion and vessel delays. This figure is expected to improve between 11.7 percent to 11.8 percent in February when final datasets are available.
Sea Intelligence’s terminal congestion index saw a gradual improvement in February and March in the U.S. but the index remained at an elevated level. The analyst firm also notes that there has been no improvement in the past three months in terminal congestion in Europe, with no sign of improvement any time soon.
On the intermodal side, the level of congestion in North America is not as high as compared to Europe, suggesting that the problems for the latter are more heavily focused specifically on terminals rather than capacity.
Economic impact from further Covid-19 restrictions in China
The above events continue to impact the world’s economy significantly, especially for China and its exports. The latest DHL Ocean Freight Market Update notes that China’s economic growth is likely to fall short of the country’s 5.5 percent target for 2022. The forecast is revised to 5.1 percent, reflecting the impact of higher energy prices and slower growth in European export markets. Furthermore, new outbreaks of Covid-19 variants could dampen industrial activity and consumer spending this spring.
Analyst firm Nomura’s leading index of Asia ex-Japan’s (AEJ) aggregate exports, made up of eight forward-looking components with a three-month lead time, is now predicting a modest slowdown in total export growth from AEJ, although export growth of around 15 percent year-on-year is still expected between March to April 2022.
With the ongoing Covid-19 restrictions in China, and developing situation in Europe, demand for Asia Pacific to Europe is likely to soften for the next few weeks. This, however, will most likely see a major rebound.
As space in various regions remains tight, the prudent approach is to place a higher emphasis on advanced booking to secure space. “Customers are advised to stay ahead of the situation, and consider booking up to four weeks in advance in anticipation of a revival in demand,” added Leung.
Array
(
[More uncertainties abound due to war in Ukraine and lockdowns in China.] => 俄乌战争和中国封控措施带来更多不确定因素。
[[]] =>
[Dual disruptions put a damper on air freight movement] => dual-disruptions-damper-air-freight-movement
[The second market disruption is, of course, ongoing Covid-19 lockdowns in China. This has affected airport operations, most notably in Shanghai, but also in other parts of the country. Even where carriers are flying, the closure of trucking services, warehouses and factories is preventing cargo from being presented for loading. “The rise in cases in cities surrounding Shanghai could lead to extended lockdowns into May,” notes the April DHL Air Freight Market Update.
The DHL Hong Kong Air Trade Leading Index (DTI) suffered sharp declines in both exports and imports in Q2 “due to the latest Covid-19 pandemic wave in Hong Kong”. More than half of local air traders reported delays in shipment and lower shipment volume due to manufacturing disruption during the Omicron outbreak.
“The Shanghai Pudong Airport (PVG) situation is still difficult and the spillover effect to other airports is now getting more apparent,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.
However, underlying demand out of China remains undiminished and many economic indicators, including a global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) of above 50, suggest the medium-term outlook is positive.
“We see lockdowns likely continuing in the first half of May but once they are eased – an outcome which increases in likelihood as we approach summer - then factories and export markets will bounce back.
“There are plenty of indications that there is unmet demand at the moment. So backlogs are likely and we suggest customers book space early,” said Leung.] => 第二个市场干扰因素自然是中国各地持续采取的新冠疫情封控措施。这些措施影响了机场的运作，尤其是上海，也包括中国其他地方。即使在承运商仍在运营的地方，货车运输服务、仓库和工厂的关闭也阻碍了货物的装载。“上海周边城市病例数量不断增加，有可能导致封锁延长到今年5月，”《4月DHL航空货运市场最新消息》指出。
在第二季度，“由于香港最近爆发新冠肺炎疫情”，DHL香港空运贸易领先指数（DTI）在进出口两方面都急剧下跌。奥密克戎爆发期间，生产中断导致当地一半以上的航空贸易商称出货发生延迟而且出货量有所减少。
“上海浦东机场（PVG）的情况仍然非常困难，对其他机场的溢出效应现在更加明显了，”DHL全球货运亚太区首席执行官Kelvin Leung说道。
然而，中国境外的基本需求仍未减少，很多经济指标――包括超过50的全球采购经理人指数（PMI）――表明中期前景仍是积极的。
“我们预计5月的上半个月内很可能继续封锁，而一旦解封――随着夏季的临近，这个可能性越来越大——那么工厂和出口市场就会很快恢复运转。
“很多迹象表明目前仍有需求未被满足，因此很可能存在积压订单，我们建议客户及早预订舱位，”Leung说道。
[Rates remain high even as it softens from low demand
Such has been the loss of export cargo from China that air cargo rates, mirroring ocean spot rates, lost some of their steam in April on East-West trades despite the decline in capacity due to war in Europe.
However, even though rates out of China have fallen substantially since the peak season in late 2021, they remain high and extremely volatile. This is especially so with fuel prices reaching as high as USD 152 per barrel in April 2022, according to the April DHL Air Freight Market Update.
The same update also notes that in February 2022, rates globally were +105 percent higher, or more than double, than the 2019 baseline. This is expected to remain high for the foreseeable future due to rising oil prices, reduced capacity and war surcharges. Moreover, transit times are expected to get longer as re-routings due to war in Europe further impact service schedules.
“Other market factors such as the labor shortage across major airports in Europe are further affecting transit times,” added Leung. “In light of these developments, it would be prudent to add more buffer time in movement plans.”
More pressure on air freight capacity
Bruce Chan, Director & Senior Analyst, Global Logistics & Future Mobility Equity Research at Stifel, believes armed conflict in Ukraine will continue to put upward pressure on air cargo pricing in the near term by limiting capacity.
“Other events and developments like Covid-19 resurgence may push near-term demand lower temporarily, but ultimately produce volatility as Chinese production and operations snap back,” he noted in a report for the Baltic Exchange.
“Further outbreaks in major consumption geographies could also swing pricing and capacity further.”
Chan said that while events of the past few years suggested it was wise to consider as many angles as possible, he argued it was important to remember that, despite micro swings in the market, a cataclysmic world event – Covid-19 – had created the current market situation and it may require an equally sharp shift in demand to push the market back to what it was pre-pandemic.
“We can talk about sequential, month-over-month, week-over-week, or year-over-year changes in the data,” he added. “But on a multi-year scale, current pricing is still multiples of pre-pandemic levels: 2.5× higher on Shanghai to Europe, 2.7× higher on Shanghai to North America, 2× higher on Hong Kong to Europe, and 2.3× higher on Hong Kong to North America.
“With no quick fix on the supply side, we believe we will need to see an equally cataclysmic shift in demand to the downside to see a rapid return to prior levels,” said Chan.] =>
Stifel公司全球物流和未来交通公平研究主任兼首席分析师Bruce Chan认为，发生在乌克兰的武装冲突将导致运力受限，从而给近期的航空货运定价带来上行压力。
“疫情反复等其他事件和动态可能会暂时抑制近期需求，但随着中国恢复生产和经营，最终会引起波动，”他在提交给波罗的海交易所的报告中提到。
“主要消费国爆发新一轮疫情还可能会导致运价和运力进一步震荡。”
Chan说道，虽然过去几年内发生的事件表明，尽可能多角度考虑问题是一种明智的做法，但他认为人们必须记住，尽管市场中发生了小幅震荡，但目前的市场状况是由灾难性的全球事件――新冠肺炎疫情――导致的，可能需要同样急剧的需求转变才能使市场恢复疫情爆发前的水平。
“我们可以谈论数据随时间的变化以及各月、各周和各年之间的变化，”他补充道。“但从多年经验来看，目前运价仍是疫情前水平的数倍之多：上海到欧洲路线增长了2.5倍，上海到北美路线增长了2.7倍，香港到欧洲路线增长了2倍，香港到北美路线增长了2.3倍。
“由于供应侧无法快速恢复，我们认为需求会朝不利方向发生同样灾难性的转变，然后才会快速恢复到以前水平，”Chan说道。
[Global air cargo is currently dominated by two major disruptions – one to the supply of capacity and the other to demand, or at least to the availability of cargo.
Firstly, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has resulted in air space restrictions and closures that have prompted a number of carriers to pull out of services to Asia due to the increased cost. A wave of sanctions has also effectively removed the Russian freighter fleet as an option on most trade lanes. The cumulative effect has been to reduce global freight capacity.] => 目前，全球航空货运受到两大因素干扰――分别影响了运力供应和需求，或者至少是货物可得性受到扰乱。
首先，俄罗斯入侵乌克兰导致空域受到限制和封闭，促使多家承运商由于成本上涨取消了对亚洲的空运服务。在大多数贸易航线中，因为各国对俄制裁，也实际上将俄罗斯货运机队排除在外。其累积效果是降低了全球货运能力。
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[More uncertainties abound due to war in Ukraine and lockdowns in China. Global air cargo is currently dominated by two major disruptions – one to the supply of capacity and the other to demand, or at least to the availability of cargo.
Firstly, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has resulted in air space restrictions and closures that have prompted a number of carriers to pull out of services to Asia due to the increased cost. A wave of sanctions has also effectively removed the Russian freighter fleet as an option on most trade lanes. The cumulative effect has been to reduce global freight capacity.
RELATED ARTICLESUkraine war impacts ocean freight, but limited to European regionGlobal factors, including further Covid-19 restrictions in China, will continue to put a damper on the supply chain.The second market disruption is, of course, ongoing Covid-19 lockdowns in China. This has affected airport operations, most notably in Shanghai, but also in other parts of the country. Even where carriers are flying, the closure of trucking services, warehouses and factories is preventing cargo from being presented for loading. “The rise in cases in cities surrounding Shanghai could lead to extended lockdowns into May,” notes the April DHL Air Freight Market Update.
The DHL Hong Kong Air Trade Leading Index (DTI) suffered sharp declines in both exports and imports in Q2 “due to the latest Covid-19 pandemic wave in Hong Kong”. More than half of local air traders reported delays in shipment and lower shipment volume due to manufacturing disruption during the Omicron outbreak.
“The Shanghai Pudong Airport (PVG) situation is still difficult and the spillover effect to other airports is now getting more apparent,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.
However, underlying demand out of China remains undiminished and many economic indicators, including a global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) of above 50, suggest the medium-term outlook is positive.
“We see lockdowns likely continuing in the first half of May but once they are eased – an outcome which increases in likelihood as we approach summer – then factories and export markets will bounce back.
“There are plenty of indications that there is unmet demand at the moment. So backlogs are likely and we suggest customers book space early,” said Leung.
RELATED ARTICLESDHL Air Freight State of the Industry – April 2022Find out the latest developments of the global air freight market in this monthly analysis by DHL Global Forwarding.Rates remain high even as it softens from low demand
Such has been the loss of export cargo from China that air cargo rates, mirroring ocean spot rates, lost some of their steam in April on East-West trades despite the decline in capacity due to war in Europe.
However, even though rates out of China have fallen substantially since the peak season in late 2021, they remain high and extremely volatile. This is especially so with fuel prices reaching as high as USD 152 per barrel in April 2022, according to the April DHL Air Freight Market Update.
The same update also notes that in February 2022, rates globally were +105 percent higher, or more than double, than the 2019 baseline. This is expected to remain high for the foreseeable future due to rising oil prices, reduced capacity and war surcharges. Moreover, transit times are expected to get longer as re-routings due to war in Europe further impact service schedules.
“Other market factors such as the labor shortage across major airports in Europe are further affecting transit times,” added Leung. “In light of these developments, it would be prudent to add more buffer time in movement plans.”
More pressure on air freight capacity
Bruce Chan, Director & Senior Analyst, Global Logistics & Future Mobility Equity Research at Stifel, believes armed conflict in Ukraine will continue to put upward pressure on air cargo pricing in the near term by limiting capacity.
“Other events and developments like Covid-19 resurgence may push near-term demand lower temporarily, but ultimately produce volatility as Chinese production and operations snap back,” he noted in a report for the Baltic Exchange.
“Further outbreaks in major consumption geographies could also swing pricing and capacity further.”
Chan said that while events of the past few years suggested it was wise to consider as many angles as possible, he argued it was important to remember that, despite micro swings in the market, a cataclysmic world event – Covid-19 – had created the current market situation and it may require an equally sharp shift in demand to push the market back to what it was pre-pandemic.
“We can talk about sequential, month-over-month, week-over-week, or year-over-year changes in the data,” he added. “But on a multi-year scale, current pricing is still multiples of pre-pandemic levels: 2.5× higher on Shanghai to Europe, 2.7× higher on Shanghai to North America, 2× higher on Hong Kong to Europe, and 2.3× higher on Hong Kong to North America.
“With no quick fix on the supply side, we believe we will need to see an equally cataclysmic shift in demand to the downside to see a rapid return to prior levels,” said Chan.] =>
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