Array
(
[derick] => Array
(
[[]] =>
[Demand, rates for air freight continue to soften] => 航空货运的需求和费率继续疲软
[A muted air cargo peak season, however, also gave breathing space for capacity recovery.] => 不过，航空货运旺季的低迷也为运力恢复提供了喘息空间。
[Softening demand and rates
Events in China, however, are not the sole reason for a muted demand outlook.
The Association of Asia Pacific Airlines (AAPA) reported a 13.9 percent year-on-year drop in international air cargo demand in October as measured in freight ton kilometers.
“Declining business confidence, against a backdrop of rising risks to the global economy, led to a slowing in orders for manufactured goods, in turn driving a 5.5 percent year-on-year decline in air cargo demand for the first ten months of the year,” said Subhas Menon, AAPA Director General.
Judah Levine, Head of Research at Freightos, said the air cargo peak season had simply failed to materialize, with part of the year-on-year decline in demand due to improvements in ocean freight. “Shippers who opted for air last year to avoid ocean delays have now shifted back to ocean as container rates and transit times fall,” he reported. “Freightos’ Air Index data show that air cargo rates from China to the US and Europe have dropped by 50 percent compared to the start of the year.”
DHL’s November Airfreight State of the Industry notes that global rates are below their levels against last year despite the effects of higher fuel prices. It also outlines how the market is currently having to deal with low volumes. PMI indices indicate sluggish exports in the months ahead because inventories remain mostly full, while high inflation rates are hitting consumer and business purchasing power. Thus, volumes are expected to witness flat growth in the first two quarters of 2023.] =>
需求和费率软化
然而，中国发生的一系列事件并不是需求前景黯淡的唯一原因。
亚太航空协会（AAPA）报告称，以货运吨公里为单位，10月份国际航空货运需求同比下降13.9%。
“在全球经济风险上升的背景下，商业信心下降导致制成品订单放缓，进而导致今年前10个月航空货运需求同比下降5.5%，”AAPA总干事Subhas Menon表示。
Freightos研究主管Judah Levine表示，航空货运旺季根本没有出现，需求同比下降的部分原因是海运的改善。他说:“随着集装箱运费和运输时间的减少，去年选择空运以避免海运延误的托运人现在又转向海运。”“Freightos的航空指数（FAI）数据显示，从中国到美国和欧洲的航空货运费率与年初相比下降了50%。”
DHL 11月发布的《航空货运行业状况报告》指出，尽管受到燃料价格上涨的影响，全球航空货运费率仍低于去年水平。此外，还概述了目前市场如何应对低交易量的问题。采购经理人指数（PMI）表明，未来几个月出口出现疲软，因为库存基本保持充足，而高通货胀率正在打击消费者和企业购买力。因此，预计2023年前两个季度的交易量将持平增长。
[Forward indicators from export levels
Nomura’s leading index of Asia ex-Japan’s aggregate exports (NELI) found that the export outlook for China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand is declining. The latest NELI reading of 82.9 is the lowest since July 2020 when global trade ground to a halt due to Covid-led lockdowns.
The financial firm highlighted that a double-digit year-on-year decline looks likely, highlighting that South Korea’s export growth in the first 20 days of November fell by 16.7 percent year-on-year from a 5.5 percent contraction in October.
Unlike in mid-2020, when supply snarls were a major factor, the export softening in Asia is likely related to weakening aggregate demand. Nomura points out that Asian exports, historically a bellwether of global demand, suggest that it is no longer a question of if there will be recession in the U.S. and Europe, but rather how deep they will be.] =>
出口水平的远期指标
野村证券（Nomura）的亚洲（除日本外）总出口中的领先指数（NELI）发现，中国内地、香港、印度、印度尼西亚、韩国、马来西亚、菲律宾、新加坡、中国台湾和泰国的出口前景正在下滑。最新的NELI读数为82.9，是自2020年7月以来的最低水平，当时全球贸易因新冠疫情管控而陷入停滞。
该金融公司强调，同比可能出现两位数的下降，并强调，韩国11月前20天的出口增长同比下降16.7%，而10月的萎缩幅度为5.5%。
2020年年中，供应混乱是主要因素。与当时不同的是，目前亚洲出口疲软可能与总需求疲软有关。野村证券指出，亚洲出口历来是全球需求的风向标，这表明问题不再是美国和欧洲是否会出现衰退，而是衰退会有多严重。
[Silver lining from improving air capacity
Air freight supply chains are, however, expected to become more reliable. For example, the resumption of more international passenger services will open up new bellyhold options and increase global capacity.
On top of additional bellyhold capacity, other factors such as conversion to ocean freight and air freighter orders placed during the air cargo peak will start hitting the market, further adding to available capacity, according to benchmarking platform Xeneta.
DHL’s November Airfreight State of the Industry notes that global capacity in November was 10 percent higher than a year earlier and just 12 percent lower than in November 2019.
However, Xeneta warns that in many markets “this increase in capacity is unlikely to be supported by a similar growth in demand, therefore putting downward pressure on load factors”.
This will be good news for shippers. Leung noted that while some products were reverting to being shipped by sea, lower air cargo rates were making air freight forwarding options more affordable.
“It’s a tough market at the moment, but we are well-placed to continue to meet the needs of customers,” he added.] =>
运力改善带来一线希望
然而，航空货运供应链预计将变得更加可靠。例如，更多的国际客运服务正在恢复，将开辟新的舱位选择，增加全球运力。
基准平台Xeneta表示，除了额外的腹舱运力外，其他因素如在航空货运高峰期间转换为海运和空运订单，将开始冲击市场，进一步增加可用运力。
DHL11月发布的《航空货运行业状况报告》指出，11月的全球运力比去年同期增长10%，仅比2019年11月低12%。
然而，Xeneta警告称，在许多市场，“这种运力的增长不太可能得到类似需求增长的支持，因此会对载客率构成下行压力”。
这对货主来说是个好消息。Leung指出，虽然一些产品恢复海运，但航空货运费率较低，使航空货运代理选择更为实惠。
“目前市场形势严峻，但我们有能力继续满足客户的需求，”他补充道。
[All eyes were on China in November, with indications from officials that zero-Covid policies might be relaxed in the second quarter of next year. Instead, aggressive lockdowns across the country were imposed in a bid to curtail new Covid-19 outbreaks. This had an apparent impact on the global trade outlook, lowering any hopes of a late 2022 Q4 air cargo peak season.
The combination of lockdowns and protests was causing distribution and production disruption across key industrial centers in China in the last week of November. Apple warned earlier in the fourth quarter that deliveries of its latest iPhone models would be delayed due to production challenges in China. Worker protests in late November over conditions, pay and lockdowns at Foxconn’s iPhone factory campus in Zhengzhou, the capital of the central province of Henan, prompted analysts to warn that iPhone 14 sales would be further affected.
“We are seeing a range of lockdowns in industrial centers around the country on top of various local Covid-19 testing obstacles which are causing some shipment delays,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific. “The situation is being continually monitored, as we deploy the learnings from the last two years to keep supply chains resilient and cope with any further challenges.”] => 11月，所有的目光都聚焦于中国，官员们表示，明年第二季度可能会放宽清零政策。然而，为了遏制新冠疫情再次爆发，中国各地都实行了大规模的管控措施。这对全球贸易前景产生了明显影响，降低了2022年第四季度出现航空货运迟来旺季的可能性。
11月的最后一周，管控和抗议活动导致中国主要工业中心的分销和生产中断。苹果在第四季度早些时候警告称，由于中国在生产上面临的挑战，其最新款iPhone机型的交付将被推迟。11月底，富士康位于河南省会郑州的iPhone工厂园区发生工人抗议，抗议针对居住环境、工资和管控问题，对此分析师警告称，iPhone 14的销售将受到进一步影响。
“我们看到全国各地的工业中心都实行了一系列管控，此外还有各地核酸检测的阻碍，导致了一些货运延误，”DHL全球货运亚太区首席执行官梁启元（Kelvin Leung）说，“我们正在持续监测局势，同时利用过去两年的经验教训，保持供应链的弹性，以应对任何进一步的挑战。”
[wysiwyg] => wysiwyg
[outbound_box] => outbound_box
[A muted air cargo peak season, however, also gave breathing space for capacity recovery. All eyes were on China in November, with indications from officials that zero-Covid policies might be relaxed in the second quarter of next year. Instead, aggressive lockdowns across the country were imposed in a bid to curtail new Covid-19 outbreaks. This had an apparent impact on the global trade outlook, lowering any hopes of a late 2022 Q4 air cargo peak season.
The combination of lockdowns and protests was causing distribution and production disruption across key industrial centers in China in the last week of November. Apple warned earlier in the fourth quarter that deliveries of its latest iPhone models would be delayed due to production challenges in China. Worker protests in late November over conditions, pay and lockdowns at Foxconn’s iPhone factory campus in Zhengzhou, the capital of the central province of Henan, prompted analysts to warn that iPhone 14 sales would be further affected.
“We are seeing a range of lockdowns in industrial centers around the country on top of various local Covid-19 testing obstacles which are causing some shipment delays,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific. “The situation is being continually monitored, as we deploy the learnings from the last two years to keep supply chains resilient and cope with any further challenges.”
RELATED ARTICLESDHL Air Freight State of the Industry – November 2022Find out the latest developments of the global air freight market in this monthly analysis by DHL Global Forwarding.Softening demand and rates
Events in China, however, are not the sole reason for a muted demand outlook.
The Association of Asia Pacific Airlines (AAPA) reported a 13.9 percent year-on-year drop in international air cargo demand in October as measured in freight ton kilometers.
“Declining business confidence, against a backdrop of rising risks to the global economy, led to a slowing in orders for manufactured goods, in turn driving a 5.5 percent year-on-year decline in air cargo demand for the first ten months of the year,” said Subhas Menon, AAPA Director General.
Judah Levine, Head of Research at Freightos, said the air cargo peak season had simply failed to materialize, with part of the year-on-year decline in demand due to improvements in ocean freight. “Shippers who opted for air last year to avoid ocean delays have now shifted back to ocean as container rates and transit times fall,” he reported. “Freightos’ Air Index data show that air cargo rates from China to the US and Europe have dropped by 50 percent compared to the start of the year.”
DHL’s November Airfreight State of the Industry notes that global rates are below their levels against last year despite the effects of higher fuel prices. It also outlines how the market is currently having to deal with low volumes. PMI indices indicate sluggish exports in the months ahead because inventories remain mostly full, while high inflation rates are hitting consumer and business purchasing power. Thus, volumes are expected to witness flat growth in the first two quarters of 2023.
RELATED ARTICLESIncoming capacity poses fresh challenges for ocean freightA shift in consumer spend from products to services is putting pressure on the balance between capacity and demand.Forward indicators from export levels
Nomura’s leading index of Asia ex-Japan’s aggregate exports (NELI) found that the export outlook for China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand is declining. The latest NELI reading of 82.9 is the lowest since July 2020 when global trade ground to a halt due to Covid-led lockdowns.
The financial firm highlighted that a double-digit year-on-year decline looks likely, highlighting that South Korea’s export growth in the first 20 days of November fell by 16.7 percent year-on-year from a 5.5 percent contraction in October.
Unlike in mid-2020, when supply snarls were a major factor, the export softening in Asia is likely related to weakening aggregate demand. Nomura points out that Asian exports, historically a bellwether of global demand, suggest that it is no longer a question of if there will be recession in the U.S. and Europe, but rather how deep they will be.
RELATED ARTICLESShifting trends for air freight as the holiday season approachesShippers have to re-think their approach as air cargo demand lowers and ocean capacity returns.Silver lining from improving air capacity
Air freight supply chains are, however, expected to become more reliable. For example, the resumption of more international passenger services will open up new bellyhold options and increase global capacity.
On top of additional bellyhold capacity, other factors such as conversion to ocean freight and air freighter orders placed during the air cargo peak will start hitting the market, further adding to available capacity, according to benchmarking platform Xeneta.
DHL’s November Airfreight State of the Industry notes that global capacity in November was 10 percent higher than a year earlier and just 12 percent lower than in November 2019.
However, Xeneta warns that in many markets “this increase in capacity is unlikely to be supported by a similar growth in demand, therefore putting downward pressure on load factors”.
This will be good news for shippers. Leung noted that while some products were reverting to being shipped by sea, lower air cargo rates were making air freight forwarding options more affordable.
“It’s a tough market at the moment, but we are well-placed to continue to meet the needs of customers,” he added.] =>
[] =>
[demand-rates-air-freight-continue-soften] => demand-rates-air-freight-continue-soften
[AFR-Nov-2022-key-image] => AFR-Nov-2022-key-image
[incoming-capacity-challenges-ocean-freight-key-image] => incoming-capacity-challenges-ocean-freight-key-image
[shifting-trends-air-freight-holiday-season-key-image] => shifting-trends-air-freight-holiday-season-key-image
[demand-rates-air-freight-continue-soften-single-column] => demand-rates-air-freight-continue-soften-single-column
[demand-rates-air-freight-continue-soften-key-image] => demand-rates-air-freight-continue-soften-key-image
)
[$value] => All eyes were on China in November, with indications from officials that zero-Covid policies might be relaxed in the second quarter of next year. Instead, aggressive lockdowns across the country were imposed in a bid to curtail new Covid-19 outbreaks. This had an apparent impact on the global trade outlook, lowering any hopes of a late 2022 Q4 air cargo peak season.
The combination of lockdowns and protests was causing distribution and production disruption across key industrial centers in China in the last week of November. Apple warned earlier in the fourth quarter that deliveries of its latest iPhone models would be delayed due to production challenges in China. Worker protests in late November over conditions, pay and lockdowns at Foxconn’s iPhone factory campus in Zhengzhou, the capital of the central province of Henan, prompted analysts to warn that iPhone 14 sales would be further affected.
“We are seeing a range of lockdowns in industrial centers around the country on top of various local Covid-19 testing obstacles which are causing some shipment delays,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific. “The situation is being continually monitored, as we deploy the learnings from the last two years to keep supply chains resilient and cope with any further challenges.”
)
Array
(
[derick] => Array
(
[[]] =>
[Demand, rates for air freight continue to soften] => 航空货运的需求和费率继续疲软
[A muted air cargo peak season, however, also gave breathing space for capacity recovery.] => 不过，航空货运旺季的低迷也为运力恢复提供了喘息空间。
[Softening demand and rates
Events in China, however, are not the sole reason for a muted demand outlook.
The Association of Asia Pacific Airlines (AAPA) reported a 13.9 percent year-on-year drop in international air cargo demand in October as measured in freight ton kilometers.
“Declining business confidence, against a backdrop of rising risks to the global economy, led to a slowing in orders for manufactured goods, in turn driving a 5.5 percent year-on-year decline in air cargo demand for the first ten months of the year,” said Subhas Menon, AAPA Director General.
Judah Levine, Head of Research at Freightos, said the air cargo peak season had simply failed to materialize, with part of the year-on-year decline in demand due to improvements in ocean freight. “Shippers who opted for air last year to avoid ocean delays have now shifted back to ocean as container rates and transit times fall,” he reported. “Freightos’ Air Index data show that air cargo rates from China to the US and Europe have dropped by 50 percent compared to the start of the year.”
DHL’s November Airfreight State of the Industry notes that global rates are below their levels against last year despite the effects of higher fuel prices. It also outlines how the market is currently having to deal with low volumes. PMI indices indicate sluggish exports in the months ahead because inventories remain mostly full, while high inflation rates are hitting consumer and business purchasing power. Thus, volumes are expected to witness flat growth in the first two quarters of 2023.] =>
需求和费率软化
然而，中国发生的一系列事件并不是需求前景黯淡的唯一原因。
亚太航空协会（AAPA）报告称，以货运吨公里为单位，10月份国际航空货运需求同比下降13.9%。
“在全球经济风险上升的背景下，商业信心下降导致制成品订单放缓，进而导致今年前10个月航空货运需求同比下降5.5%，”AAPA总干事Subhas Menon表示。
Freightos研究主管Judah Levine表示，航空货运旺季根本没有出现，需求同比下降的部分原因是海运的改善。他说:“随着集装箱运费和运输时间的减少，去年选择空运以避免海运延误的托运人现在又转向海运。”“Freightos的航空指数（FAI）数据显示，从中国到美国和欧洲的航空货运费率与年初相比下降了50%。”
DHL 11月发布的《航空货运行业状况报告》指出，尽管受到燃料价格上涨的影响，全球航空货运费率仍低于去年水平。此外，还概述了目前市场如何应对低交易量的问题。采购经理人指数（PMI）表明，未来几个月出口出现疲软，因为库存基本保持充足，而高通货胀率正在打击消费者和企业购买力。因此，预计2023年前两个季度的交易量将持平增长。
[Forward indicators from export levels
Nomura’s leading index of Asia ex-Japan’s aggregate exports (NELI) found that the export outlook for China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand is declining. The latest NELI reading of 82.9 is the lowest since July 2020 when global trade ground to a halt due to Covid-led lockdowns.
The financial firm highlighted that a double-digit year-on-year decline looks likely, highlighting that South Korea’s export growth in the first 20 days of November fell by 16.7 percent year-on-year from a 5.5 percent contraction in October.
Unlike in mid-2020, when supply snarls were a major factor, the export softening in Asia is likely related to weakening aggregate demand. Nomura points out that Asian exports, historically a bellwether of global demand, suggest that it is no longer a question of if there will be recession in the U.S. and Europe, but rather how deep they will be.] =>
出口水平的远期指标
野村证券（Nomura）的亚洲（除日本外）总出口中的领先指数（NELI）发现，中国内地、香港、印度、印度尼西亚、韩国、马来西亚、菲律宾、新加坡、中国台湾和泰国的出口前景正在下滑。最新的NELI读数为82.9，是自2020年7月以来的最低水平，当时全球贸易因新冠疫情管控而陷入停滞。
该金融公司强调，同比可能出现两位数的下降，并强调，韩国11月前20天的出口增长同比下降16.7%，而10月的萎缩幅度为5.5%。
2020年年中，供应混乱是主要因素。与当时不同的是，目前亚洲出口疲软可能与总需求疲软有关。野村证券指出，亚洲出口历来是全球需求的风向标，这表明问题不再是美国和欧洲是否会出现衰退，而是衰退会有多严重。
[Silver lining from improving air capacity
Air freight supply chains are, however, expected to become more reliable. For example, the resumption of more international passenger services will open up new bellyhold options and increase global capacity.
On top of additional bellyhold capacity, other factors such as conversion to ocean freight and air freighter orders placed during the air cargo peak will start hitting the market, further adding to available capacity, according to benchmarking platform Xeneta.
DHL’s November Airfreight State of the Industry notes that global capacity in November was 10 percent higher than a year earlier and just 12 percent lower than in November 2019.
However, Xeneta warns that in many markets “this increase in capacity is unlikely to be supported by a similar growth in demand, therefore putting downward pressure on load factors”.
This will be good news for shippers. Leung noted that while some products were reverting to being shipped by sea, lower air cargo rates were making air freight forwarding options more affordable.
“It’s a tough market at the moment, but we are well-placed to continue to meet the needs of customers,” he added.] =>
运力改善带来一线希望
然而，航空货运供应链预计将变得更加可靠。例如，更多的国际客运服务正在恢复，将开辟新的舱位选择，增加全球运力。
基准平台Xeneta表示，除了额外的腹舱运力外，其他因素如在航空货运高峰期间转换为海运和空运订单，将开始冲击市场，进一步增加可用运力。
DHL11月发布的《航空货运行业状况报告》指出，11月的全球运力比去年同期增长10%，仅比2019年11月低12%。
然而，Xeneta警告称，在许多市场，“这种运力的增长不太可能得到类似需求增长的支持，因此会对载客率构成下行压力”。
这对货主来说是个好消息。Leung指出，虽然一些产品恢复海运，但航空货运费率较低，使航空货运代理选择更为实惠。
“目前市场形势严峻，但我们有能力继续满足客户的需求，”他补充道。
[All eyes were on China in November, with indications from officials that zero-Covid policies might be relaxed in the second quarter of next year. Instead, aggressive lockdowns across the country were imposed in a bid to curtail new Covid-19 outbreaks. This had an apparent impact on the global trade outlook, lowering any hopes of a late 2022 Q4 air cargo peak season.
The combination of lockdowns and protests was causing distribution and production disruption across key industrial centers in China in the last week of November. Apple warned earlier in the fourth quarter that deliveries of its latest iPhone models would be delayed due to production challenges in China. Worker protests in late November over conditions, pay and lockdowns at Foxconn’s iPhone factory campus in Zhengzhou, the capital of the central province of Henan, prompted analysts to warn that iPhone 14 sales would be further affected.
“We are seeing a range of lockdowns in industrial centers around the country on top of various local Covid-19 testing obstacles which are causing some shipment delays,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific. “The situation is being continually monitored, as we deploy the learnings from the last two years to keep supply chains resilient and cope with any further challenges.”] => 11月，所有的目光都聚焦于中国，官员们表示，明年第二季度可能会放宽清零政策。然而，为了遏制新冠疫情再次爆发，中国各地都实行了大规模的管控措施。这对全球贸易前景产生了明显影响，降低了2022年第四季度出现航空货运迟来旺季的可能性。
11月的最后一周，管控和抗议活动导致中国主要工业中心的分销和生产中断。苹果在第四季度早些时候警告称，由于中国在生产上面临的挑战，其最新款iPhone机型的交付将被推迟。11月底，富士康位于河南省会郑州的iPhone工厂园区发生工人抗议，抗议针对居住环境、工资和管控问题，对此分析师警告称，iPhone 14的销售将受到进一步影响。
“我们看到全国各地的工业中心都实行了一系列管控，此外还有各地核酸检测的阻碍，导致了一些货运延误，”DHL全球货运亚太区首席执行官梁启元（Kelvin Leung）说，“我们正在持续监测局势，同时利用过去两年的经验教训，保持供应链的弹性，以应对任何进一步的挑战。”
[wysiwyg] => wysiwyg
[outbound_box] => outbound_box
[A muted air cargo peak season, however, also gave breathing space for capacity recovery. All eyes were on China in November, with indications from officials that zero-Covid policies might be relaxed in the second quarter of next year. Instead, aggressive lockdowns across the country were imposed in a bid to curtail new Covid-19 outbreaks. This had an apparent impact on the global trade outlook, lowering any hopes of a late 2022 Q4 air cargo peak season.
The combination of lockdowns and protests was causing distribution and production disruption across key industrial centers in China in the last week of November. Apple warned earlier in the fourth quarter that deliveries of its latest iPhone models would be delayed due to production challenges in China. Worker protests in late November over conditions, pay and lockdowns at Foxconn’s iPhone factory campus in Zhengzhou, the capital of the central province of Henan, prompted analysts to warn that iPhone 14 sales would be further affected.
“We are seeing a range of lockdowns in industrial centers around the country on top of various local Covid-19 testing obstacles which are causing some shipment delays,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific. “The situation is being continually monitored, as we deploy the learnings from the last two years to keep supply chains resilient and cope with any further challenges.”
RELATED ARTICLESDHL Air Freight State of the Industry – November 2022Find out the latest developments of the global air freight market in this monthly analysis by DHL Global Forwarding.Softening demand and rates
Events in China, however, are not the sole reason for a muted demand outlook.
The Association of Asia Pacific Airlines (AAPA) reported a 13.9 percent year-on-year drop in international air cargo demand in October as measured in freight ton kilometers.
“Declining business confidence, against a backdrop of rising risks to the global economy, led to a slowing in orders for manufactured goods, in turn driving a 5.5 percent year-on-year decline in air cargo demand for the first ten months of the year,” said Subhas Menon, AAPA Director General.
Judah Levine, Head of Research at Freightos, said the air cargo peak season had simply failed to materialize, with part of the year-on-year decline in demand due to improvements in ocean freight. “Shippers who opted for air last year to avoid ocean delays have now shifted back to ocean as container rates and transit times fall,” he reported. “Freightos’ Air Index data show that air cargo rates from China to the US and Europe have dropped by 50 percent compared to the start of the year.”
DHL’s November Airfreight State of the Industry notes that global rates are below their levels against last year despite the effects of higher fuel prices. It also outlines how the market is currently having to deal with low volumes. PMI indices indicate sluggish exports in the months ahead because inventories remain mostly full, while high inflation rates are hitting consumer and business purchasing power. Thus, volumes are expected to witness flat growth in the first two quarters of 2023.
RELATED ARTICLESIncoming capacity poses fresh challenges for ocean freightA shift in consumer spend from products to services is putting pressure on the balance between capacity and demand.Forward indicators from export levels
Nomura’s leading index of Asia ex-Japan’s aggregate exports (NELI) found that the export outlook for China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand is declining. The latest NELI reading of 82.9 is the lowest since July 2020 when global trade ground to a halt due to Covid-led lockdowns.
The financial firm highlighted that a double-digit year-on-year decline looks likely, highlighting that South Korea’s export growth in the first 20 days of November fell by 16.7 percent year-on-year from a 5.5 percent contraction in October.
Unlike in mid-2020, when supply snarls were a major factor, the export softening in Asia is likely related to weakening aggregate demand. Nomura points out that Asian exports, historically a bellwether of global demand, suggest that it is no longer a question of if there will be recession in the U.S. and Europe, but rather how deep they will be.
RELATED ARTICLESShifting trends for air freight as the holiday season approachesShippers have to re-think their approach as air cargo demand lowers and ocean capacity returns.Silver lining from improving air capacity
Air freight supply chains are, however, expected to become more reliable. For example, the resumption of more international passenger services will open up new bellyhold options and increase global capacity.
On top of additional bellyhold capacity, other factors such as conversion to ocean freight and air freighter orders placed during the air cargo peak will start hitting the market, further adding to available capacity, according to benchmarking platform Xeneta.
DHL’s November Airfreight State of the Industry notes that global capacity in November was 10 percent higher than a year earlier and just 12 percent lower than in November 2019.
However, Xeneta warns that in many markets “this increase in capacity is unlikely to be supported by a similar growth in demand, therefore putting downward pressure on load factors”.
This will be good news for shippers. Leung noted that while some products were reverting to being shipped by sea, lower air cargo rates were making air freight forwarding options more affordable.
“It’s a tough market at the moment, but we are well-placed to continue to meet the needs of customers,” he added.] =>
[] =>
[demand-rates-air-freight-continue-soften] => demand-rates-air-freight-continue-soften
[AFR-Nov-2022-key-image] => AFR-Nov-2022-key-image
[incoming-capacity-challenges-ocean-freight-key-image] => incoming-capacity-challenges-ocean-freight-key-image
[shifting-trends-air-freight-holiday-season-key-image] => shifting-trends-air-freight-holiday-season-key-image
[demand-rates-air-freight-continue-soften-single-column] => demand-rates-air-freight-continue-soften-single-column
[demand-rates-air-freight-continue-soften-key-image] => demand-rates-air-freight-continue-soften-key-image
)
[$value] => Softening demand and rates
Events in China, however, are not the sole reason for a muted demand outlook.
The Association of Asia Pacific Airlines (AAPA) reported a 13.9 percent year-on-year drop in international air cargo demand in October as measured in freight ton kilometers.
“Declining business confidence, against a backdrop of rising risks to the global economy, led to a slowing in orders for manufactured goods, in turn driving a 5.5 percent year-on-year decline in air cargo demand for the first ten months of the year,” said Subhas Menon, AAPA Director General.
Judah Levine, Head of Research at Freightos, said the air cargo peak season had simply failed to materialize, with part of the year-on-year decline in demand due to improvements in ocean freight. “Shippers who opted for air last year to avoid ocean delays have now shifted back to ocean as container rates and transit times fall,” he reported. “Freightos’ Air Index data show that air cargo rates from China to the US and Europe have dropped by 50 percent compared to the start of the year.”
DHL’s November Airfreight State of the Industry notes that global rates are below their levels against last year despite the effects of higher fuel prices. It also outlines how the market is currently having to deal with low volumes. PMI indices indicate sluggish exports in the months ahead because inventories remain mostly full, while high inflation rates are hitting consumer and business purchasing power. Thus, volumes are expected to witness flat growth in the first two quarters of 2023.
)
Array
(
[derick] => Array
(
[[]] =>
[Demand, rates for air freight continue to soften] => 航空货运的需求和费率继续疲软
[A muted air cargo peak season, however, also gave breathing space for capacity recovery.] => 不过，航空货运旺季的低迷也为运力恢复提供了喘息空间。
[Softening demand and rates
Events in China, however, are not the sole reason for a muted demand outlook.
The Association of Asia Pacific Airlines (AAPA) reported a 13.9 percent year-on-year drop in international air cargo demand in October as measured in freight ton kilometers.
“Declining business confidence, against a backdrop of rising risks to the global economy, led to a slowing in orders for manufactured goods, in turn driving a 5.5 percent year-on-year decline in air cargo demand for the first ten months of the year,” said Subhas Menon, AAPA Director General.
Judah Levine, Head of Research at Freightos, said the air cargo peak season had simply failed to materialize, with part of the year-on-year decline in demand due to improvements in ocean freight. “Shippers who opted for air last year to avoid ocean delays have now shifted back to ocean as container rates and transit times fall,” he reported. “Freightos’ Air Index data show that air cargo rates from China to the US and Europe have dropped by 50 percent compared to the start of the year.”
DHL’s November Airfreight State of the Industry notes that global rates are below their levels against last year despite the effects of higher fuel prices. It also outlines how the market is currently having to deal with low volumes. PMI indices indicate sluggish exports in the months ahead because inventories remain mostly full, while high inflation rates are hitting consumer and business purchasing power. Thus, volumes are expected to witness flat growth in the first two quarters of 2023.] =>
需求和费率软化
然而，中国发生的一系列事件并不是需求前景黯淡的唯一原因。
亚太航空协会（AAPA）报告称，以货运吨公里为单位，10月份国际航空货运需求同比下降13.9%。
“在全球经济风险上升的背景下，商业信心下降导致制成品订单放缓，进而导致今年前10个月航空货运需求同比下降5.5%，”AAPA总干事Subhas Menon表示。
Freightos研究主管Judah Levine表示，航空货运旺季根本没有出现，需求同比下降的部分原因是海运的改善。他说:“随着集装箱运费和运输时间的减少，去年选择空运以避免海运延误的托运人现在又转向海运。”“Freightos的航空指数（FAI）数据显示，从中国到美国和欧洲的航空货运费率与年初相比下降了50%。”
DHL 11月发布的《航空货运行业状况报告》指出，尽管受到燃料价格上涨的影响，全球航空货运费率仍低于去年水平。此外，还概述了目前市场如何应对低交易量的问题。采购经理人指数（PMI）表明，未来几个月出口出现疲软，因为库存基本保持充足，而高通货胀率正在打击消费者和企业购买力。因此，预计2023年前两个季度的交易量将持平增长。
[Forward indicators from export levels
Nomura’s leading index of Asia ex-Japan’s aggregate exports (NELI) found that the export outlook for China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand is declining. The latest NELI reading of 82.9 is the lowest since July 2020 when global trade ground to a halt due to Covid-led lockdowns.
The financial firm highlighted that a double-digit year-on-year decline looks likely, highlighting that South Korea’s export growth in the first 20 days of November fell by 16.7 percent year-on-year from a 5.5 percent contraction in October.
Unlike in mid-2020, when supply snarls were a major factor, the export softening in Asia is likely related to weakening aggregate demand. Nomura points out that Asian exports, historically a bellwether of global demand, suggest that it is no longer a question of if there will be recession in the U.S. and Europe, but rather how deep they will be.] =>
出口水平的远期指标
野村证券（Nomura）的亚洲（除日本外）总出口中的领先指数（NELI）发现，中国内地、香港、印度、印度尼西亚、韩国、马来西亚、菲律宾、新加坡、中国台湾和泰国的出口前景正在下滑。最新的NELI读数为82.9，是自2020年7月以来的最低水平，当时全球贸易因新冠疫情管控而陷入停滞。
该金融公司强调，同比可能出现两位数的下降，并强调，韩国11月前20天的出口增长同比下降16.7%，而10月的萎缩幅度为5.5%。
2020年年中，供应混乱是主要因素。与当时不同的是，目前亚洲出口疲软可能与总需求疲软有关。野村证券指出，亚洲出口历来是全球需求的风向标，这表明问题不再是美国和欧洲是否会出现衰退，而是衰退会有多严重。
[Silver lining from improving air capacity
Air freight supply chains are, however, expected to become more reliable. For example, the resumption of more international passenger services will open up new bellyhold options and increase global capacity.
On top of additional bellyhold capacity, other factors such as conversion to ocean freight and air freighter orders placed during the air cargo peak will start hitting the market, further adding to available capacity, according to benchmarking platform Xeneta.
DHL’s November Airfreight State of the Industry notes that global capacity in November was 10 percent higher than a year earlier and just 12 percent lower than in November 2019.
However, Xeneta warns that in many markets “this increase in capacity is unlikely to be supported by a similar growth in demand, therefore putting downward pressure on load factors”.
This will be good news for shippers. Leung noted that while some products were reverting to being shipped by sea, lower air cargo rates were making air freight forwarding options more affordable.
“It’s a tough market at the moment, but we are well-placed to continue to meet the needs of customers,” he added.] =>
运力改善带来一线希望
然而，航空货运供应链预计将变得更加可靠。例如，更多的国际客运服务正在恢复，将开辟新的舱位选择，增加全球运力。
基准平台Xeneta表示，除了额外的腹舱运力外，其他因素如在航空货运高峰期间转换为海运和空运订单，将开始冲击市场，进一步增加可用运力。
DHL11月发布的《航空货运行业状况报告》指出，11月的全球运力比去年同期增长10%，仅比2019年11月低12%。
然而，Xeneta警告称，在许多市场，“这种运力的增长不太可能得到类似需求增长的支持，因此会对载客率构成下行压力”。
这对货主来说是个好消息。Leung指出，虽然一些产品恢复海运，但航空货运费率较低，使航空货运代理选择更为实惠。
“目前市场形势严峻，但我们有能力继续满足客户的需求，”他补充道。
[All eyes were on China in November, with indications from officials that zero-Covid policies might be relaxed in the second quarter of next year. Instead, aggressive lockdowns across the country were imposed in a bid to curtail new Covid-19 outbreaks. This had an apparent impact on the global trade outlook, lowering any hopes of a late 2022 Q4 air cargo peak season.
The combination of lockdowns and protests was causing distribution and production disruption across key industrial centers in China in the last week of November. Apple warned earlier in the fourth quarter that deliveries of its latest iPhone models would be delayed due to production challenges in China. Worker protests in late November over conditions, pay and lockdowns at Foxconn’s iPhone factory campus in Zhengzhou, the capital of the central province of Henan, prompted analysts to warn that iPhone 14 sales would be further affected.
“We are seeing a range of lockdowns in industrial centers around the country on top of various local Covid-19 testing obstacles which are causing some shipment delays,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific. “The situation is being continually monitored, as we deploy the learnings from the last two years to keep supply chains resilient and cope with any further challenges.”] => 11月，所有的目光都聚焦于中国，官员们表示，明年第二季度可能会放宽清零政策。然而，为了遏制新冠疫情再次爆发，中国各地都实行了大规模的管控措施。这对全球贸易前景产生了明显影响，降低了2022年第四季度出现航空货运迟来旺季的可能性。
11月的最后一周，管控和抗议活动导致中国主要工业中心的分销和生产中断。苹果在第四季度早些时候警告称，由于中国在生产上面临的挑战，其最新款iPhone机型的交付将被推迟。11月底，富士康位于河南省会郑州的iPhone工厂园区发生工人抗议，抗议针对居住环境、工资和管控问题，对此分析师警告称，iPhone 14的销售将受到进一步影响。
“我们看到全国各地的工业中心都实行了一系列管控，此外还有各地核酸检测的阻碍，导致了一些货运延误，”DHL全球货运亚太区首席执行官梁启元（Kelvin Leung）说，“我们正在持续监测局势，同时利用过去两年的经验教训，保持供应链的弹性，以应对任何进一步的挑战。”
[wysiwyg] => wysiwyg
[outbound_box] => outbound_box
[A muted air cargo peak season, however, also gave breathing space for capacity recovery. All eyes were on China in November, with indications from officials that zero-Covid policies might be relaxed in the second quarter of next year. Instead, aggressive lockdowns across the country were imposed in a bid to curtail new Covid-19 outbreaks. This had an apparent impact on the global trade outlook, lowering any hopes of a late 2022 Q4 air cargo peak season.
The combination of lockdowns and protests was causing distribution and production disruption across key industrial centers in China in the last week of November. Apple warned earlier in the fourth quarter that deliveries of its latest iPhone models would be delayed due to production challenges in China. Worker protests in late November over conditions, pay and lockdowns at Foxconn’s iPhone factory campus in Zhengzhou, the capital of the central province of Henan, prompted analysts to warn that iPhone 14 sales would be further affected.
“We are seeing a range of lockdowns in industrial centers around the country on top of various local Covid-19 testing obstacles which are causing some shipment delays,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific. “The situation is being continually monitored, as we deploy the learnings from the last two years to keep supply chains resilient and cope with any further challenges.”
RELATED ARTICLESDHL Air Freight State of the Industry – November 2022Find out the latest developments of the global air freight market in this monthly analysis by DHL Global Forwarding.Softening demand and rates
Events in China, however, are not the sole reason for a muted demand outlook.
The Association of Asia Pacific Airlines (AAPA) reported a 13.9 percent year-on-year drop in international air cargo demand in October as measured in freight ton kilometers.
“Declining business confidence, against a backdrop of rising risks to the global economy, led to a slowing in orders for manufactured goods, in turn driving a 5.5 percent year-on-year decline in air cargo demand for the first ten months of the year,” said Subhas Menon, AAPA Director General.
Judah Levine, Head of Research at Freightos, said the air cargo peak season had simply failed to materialize, with part of the year-on-year decline in demand due to improvements in ocean freight. “Shippers who opted for air last year to avoid ocean delays have now shifted back to ocean as container rates and transit times fall,” he reported. “Freightos’ Air Index data show that air cargo rates from China to the US and Europe have dropped by 50 percent compared to the start of the year.”
DHL’s November Airfreight State of the Industry notes that global rates are below their levels against last year despite the effects of higher fuel prices. It also outlines how the market is currently having to deal with low volumes. PMI indices indicate sluggish exports in the months ahead because inventories remain mostly full, while high inflation rates are hitting consumer and business purchasing power. Thus, volumes are expected to witness flat growth in the first two quarters of 2023.
RELATED ARTICLESIncoming capacity poses fresh challenges for ocean freightA shift in consumer spend from products to services is putting pressure on the balance between capacity and demand.Forward indicators from export levels
Nomura’s leading index of Asia ex-Japan’s aggregate exports (NELI) found that the export outlook for China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand is declining. The latest NELI reading of 82.9 is the lowest since July 2020 when global trade ground to a halt due to Covid-led lockdowns.
The financial firm highlighted that a double-digit year-on-year decline looks likely, highlighting that South Korea’s export growth in the first 20 days of November fell by 16.7 percent year-on-year from a 5.5 percent contraction in October.
Unlike in mid-2020, when supply snarls were a major factor, the export softening in Asia is likely related to weakening aggregate demand. Nomura points out that Asian exports, historically a bellwether of global demand, suggest that it is no longer a question of if there will be recession in the U.S. and Europe, but rather how deep they will be.
RELATED ARTICLESShifting trends for air freight as the holiday season approachesShippers have to re-think their approach as air cargo demand lowers and ocean capacity returns.Silver lining from improving air capacity
Air freight supply chains are, however, expected to become more reliable. For example, the resumption of more international passenger services will open up new bellyhold options and increase global capacity.
On top of additional bellyhold capacity, other factors such as conversion to ocean freight and air freighter orders placed during the air cargo peak will start hitting the market, further adding to available capacity, according to benchmarking platform Xeneta.
DHL’s November Airfreight State of the Industry notes that global capacity in November was 10 percent higher than a year earlier and just 12 percent lower than in November 2019.
However, Xeneta warns that in many markets “this increase in capacity is unlikely to be supported by a similar growth in demand, therefore putting downward pressure on load factors”.
This will be good news for shippers. Leung noted that while some products were reverting to being shipped by sea, lower air cargo rates were making air freight forwarding options more affordable.
“It’s a tough market at the moment, but we are well-placed to continue to meet the needs of customers,” he added.] =>
[] =>
[demand-rates-air-freight-continue-soften] => demand-rates-air-freight-continue-soften
[AFR-Nov-2022-key-image] => AFR-Nov-2022-key-image
[incoming-capacity-challenges-ocean-freight-key-image] => incoming-capacity-challenges-ocean-freight-key-image
[shifting-trends-air-freight-holiday-season-key-image] => shifting-trends-air-freight-holiday-season-key-image
[demand-rates-air-freight-continue-soften-single-column] => demand-rates-air-freight-continue-soften-single-column
[demand-rates-air-freight-continue-soften-key-image] => demand-rates-air-freight-continue-soften-key-image
)
[$value] => Forward indicators from export levels
Nomura’s leading index of Asia ex-Japan’s aggregate exports (NELI) found that the export outlook for China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand is declining. The latest NELI reading of 82.9 is the lowest since July 2020 when global trade ground to a halt due to Covid-led lockdowns.
The financial firm highlighted that a double-digit year-on-year decline looks likely, highlighting that South Korea’s export growth in the first 20 days of November fell by 16.7 percent year-on-year from a 5.5 percent contraction in October.
Unlike in mid-2020, when supply snarls were a major factor, the export softening in Asia is likely related to weakening aggregate demand. Nomura points out that Asian exports, historically a bellwether of global demand, suggest that it is no longer a question of if there will be recession in the U.S. and Europe, but rather how deep they will be.
)
Array
(
[derick] => Array
(
[[]] =>
[Demand, rates for air freight continue to soften] => 航空货运的需求和费率继续疲软
[A muted air cargo peak season, however, also gave breathing space for capacity recovery.] => 不过，航空货运旺季的低迷也为运力恢复提供了喘息空间。
[Softening demand and rates
Events in China, however, are not the sole reason for a muted demand outlook.
The Association of Asia Pacific Airlines (AAPA) reported a 13.9 percent year-on-year drop in international air cargo demand in October as measured in freight ton kilometers.
“Declining business confidence, against a backdrop of rising risks to the global economy, led to a slowing in orders for manufactured goods, in turn driving a 5.5 percent year-on-year decline in air cargo demand for the first ten months of the year,” said Subhas Menon, AAPA Director General.
Judah Levine, Head of Research at Freightos, said the air cargo peak season had simply failed to materialize, with part of the year-on-year decline in demand due to improvements in ocean freight. “Shippers who opted for air last year to avoid ocean delays have now shifted back to ocean as container rates and transit times fall,” he reported. “Freightos’ Air Index data show that air cargo rates from China to the US and Europe have dropped by 50 percent compared to the start of the year.”
DHL’s November Airfreight State of the Industry notes that global rates are below their levels against last year despite the effects of higher fuel prices. It also outlines how the market is currently having to deal with low volumes. PMI indices indicate sluggish exports in the months ahead because inventories remain mostly full, while high inflation rates are hitting consumer and business purchasing power. Thus, volumes are expected to witness flat growth in the first two quarters of 2023.] =>
需求和费率软化
然而，中国发生的一系列事件并不是需求前景黯淡的唯一原因。
亚太航空协会（AAPA）报告称，以货运吨公里为单位，10月份国际航空货运需求同比下降13.9%。
“在全球经济风险上升的背景下，商业信心下降导致制成品订单放缓，进而导致今年前10个月航空货运需求同比下降5.5%，”AAPA总干事Subhas Menon表示。
Freightos研究主管Judah Levine表示，航空货运旺季根本没有出现，需求同比下降的部分原因是海运的改善。他说:“随着集装箱运费和运输时间的减少，去年选择空运以避免海运延误的托运人现在又转向海运。”“Freightos的航空指数（FAI）数据显示，从中国到美国和欧洲的航空货运费率与年初相比下降了50%。”
DHL 11月发布的《航空货运行业状况报告》指出，尽管受到燃料价格上涨的影响，全球航空货运费率仍低于去年水平。此外，还概述了目前市场如何应对低交易量的问题。采购经理人指数（PMI）表明，未来几个月出口出现疲软，因为库存基本保持充足，而高通货胀率正在打击消费者和企业购买力。因此，预计2023年前两个季度的交易量将持平增长。
[Forward indicators from export levels
Nomura’s leading index of Asia ex-Japan’s aggregate exports (NELI) found that the export outlook for China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand is declining. The latest NELI reading of 82.9 is the lowest since July 2020 when global trade ground to a halt due to Covid-led lockdowns.
The financial firm highlighted that a double-digit year-on-year decline looks likely, highlighting that South Korea’s export growth in the first 20 days of November fell by 16.7 percent year-on-year from a 5.5 percent contraction in October.
Unlike in mid-2020, when supply snarls were a major factor, the export softening in Asia is likely related to weakening aggregate demand. Nomura points out that Asian exports, historically a bellwether of global demand, suggest that it is no longer a question of if there will be recession in the U.S. and Europe, but rather how deep they will be.] =>
出口水平的远期指标
野村证券（Nomura）的亚洲（除日本外）总出口中的领先指数（NELI）发现，中国内地、香港、印度、印度尼西亚、韩国、马来西亚、菲律宾、新加坡、中国台湾和泰国的出口前景正在下滑。最新的NELI读数为82.9，是自2020年7月以来的最低水平，当时全球贸易因新冠疫情管控而陷入停滞。
该金融公司强调，同比可能出现两位数的下降，并强调，韩国11月前20天的出口增长同比下降16.7%，而10月的萎缩幅度为5.5%。
2020年年中，供应混乱是主要因素。与当时不同的是，目前亚洲出口疲软可能与总需求疲软有关。野村证券指出，亚洲出口历来是全球需求的风向标，这表明问题不再是美国和欧洲是否会出现衰退，而是衰退会有多严重。
[Silver lining from improving air capacity
Air freight supply chains are, however, expected to become more reliable. For example, the resumption of more international passenger services will open up new bellyhold options and increase global capacity.
On top of additional bellyhold capacity, other factors such as conversion to ocean freight and air freighter orders placed during the air cargo peak will start hitting the market, further adding to available capacity, according to benchmarking platform Xeneta.
DHL’s November Airfreight State of the Industry notes that global capacity in November was 10 percent higher than a year earlier and just 12 percent lower than in November 2019.
However, Xeneta warns that in many markets “this increase in capacity is unlikely to be supported by a similar growth in demand, therefore putting downward pressure on load factors”.
This will be good news for shippers. Leung noted that while some products were reverting to being shipped by sea, lower air cargo rates were making air freight forwarding options more affordable.
“It’s a tough market at the moment, but we are well-placed to continue to meet the needs of customers,” he added.] =>
运力改善带来一线希望
然而，航空货运供应链预计将变得更加可靠。例如，更多的国际客运服务正在恢复，将开辟新的舱位选择，增加全球运力。
基准平台Xeneta表示，除了额外的腹舱运力外，其他因素如在航空货运高峰期间转换为海运和空运订单，将开始冲击市场，进一步增加可用运力。
DHL11月发布的《航空货运行业状况报告》指出，11月的全球运力比去年同期增长10%，仅比2019年11月低12%。
然而，Xeneta警告称，在许多市场，“这种运力的增长不太可能得到类似需求增长的支持，因此会对载客率构成下行压力”。
这对货主来说是个好消息。Leung指出，虽然一些产品恢复海运，但航空货运费率较低，使航空货运代理选择更为实惠。
“目前市场形势严峻，但我们有能力继续满足客户的需求，”他补充道。
[All eyes were on China in November, with indications from officials that zero-Covid policies might be relaxed in the second quarter of next year. Instead, aggressive lockdowns across the country were imposed in a bid to curtail new Covid-19 outbreaks. This had an apparent impact on the global trade outlook, lowering any hopes of a late 2022 Q4 air cargo peak season.
The combination of lockdowns and protests was causing distribution and production disruption across key industrial centers in China in the last week of November. Apple warned earlier in the fourth quarter that deliveries of its latest iPhone models would be delayed due to production challenges in China. Worker protests in late November over conditions, pay and lockdowns at Foxconn’s iPhone factory campus in Zhengzhou, the capital of the central province of Henan, prompted analysts to warn that iPhone 14 sales would be further affected.
“We are seeing a range of lockdowns in industrial centers around the country on top of various local Covid-19 testing obstacles which are causing some shipment delays,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific. “The situation is being continually monitored, as we deploy the learnings from the last two years to keep supply chains resilient and cope with any further challenges.”] => 11月，所有的目光都聚焦于中国，官员们表示，明年第二季度可能会放宽清零政策。然而，为了遏制新冠疫情再次爆发，中国各地都实行了大规模的管控措施。这对全球贸易前景产生了明显影响，降低了2022年第四季度出现航空货运迟来旺季的可能性。
11月的最后一周，管控和抗议活动导致中国主要工业中心的分销和生产中断。苹果在第四季度早些时候警告称，由于中国在生产上面临的挑战，其最新款iPhone机型的交付将被推迟。11月底，富士康位于河南省会郑州的iPhone工厂园区发生工人抗议，抗议针对居住环境、工资和管控问题，对此分析师警告称，iPhone 14的销售将受到进一步影响。
“我们看到全国各地的工业中心都实行了一系列管控，此外还有各地核酸检测的阻碍，导致了一些货运延误，”DHL全球货运亚太区首席执行官梁启元（Kelvin Leung）说，“我们正在持续监测局势，同时利用过去两年的经验教训，保持供应链的弹性，以应对任何进一步的挑战。”
[wysiwyg] => wysiwyg
[outbound_box] => outbound_box
[A muted air cargo peak season, however, also gave breathing space for capacity recovery. All eyes were on China in November, with indications from officials that zero-Covid policies might be relaxed in the second quarter of next year. Instead, aggressive lockdowns across the country were imposed in a bid to curtail new Covid-19 outbreaks. This had an apparent impact on the global trade outlook, lowering any hopes of a late 2022 Q4 air cargo peak season.
The combination of lockdowns and protests was causing distribution and production disruption across key industrial centers in China in the last week of November. Apple warned earlier in the fourth quarter that deliveries of its latest iPhone models would be delayed due to production challenges in China. Worker protests in late November over conditions, pay and lockdowns at Foxconn’s iPhone factory campus in Zhengzhou, the capital of the central province of Henan, prompted analysts to warn that iPhone 14 sales would be further affected.
“We are seeing a range of lockdowns in industrial centers around the country on top of various local Covid-19 testing obstacles which are causing some shipment delays,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific. “The situation is being continually monitored, as we deploy the learnings from the last two years to keep supply chains resilient and cope with any further challenges.”
RELATED ARTICLESDHL Air Freight State of the Industry – November 2022Find out the latest developments of the global air freight market in this monthly analysis by DHL Global Forwarding.Softening demand and rates
Events in China, however, are not the sole reason for a muted demand outlook.
The Association of Asia Pacific Airlines (AAPA) reported a 13.9 percent year-on-year drop in international air cargo demand in October as measured in freight ton kilometers.
“Declining business confidence, against a backdrop of rising risks to the global economy, led to a slowing in orders for manufactured goods, in turn driving a 5.5 percent year-on-year decline in air cargo demand for the first ten months of the year,” said Subhas Menon, AAPA Director General.
Judah Levine, Head of Research at Freightos, said the air cargo peak season had simply failed to materialize, with part of the year-on-year decline in demand due to improvements in ocean freight. “Shippers who opted for air last year to avoid ocean delays have now shifted back to ocean as container rates and transit times fall,” he reported. “Freightos’ Air Index data show that air cargo rates from China to the US and Europe have dropped by 50 percent compared to the start of the year.”
DHL’s November Airfreight State of the Industry notes that global rates are below their levels against last year despite the effects of higher fuel prices. It also outlines how the market is currently having to deal with low volumes. PMI indices indicate sluggish exports in the months ahead because inventories remain mostly full, while high inflation rates are hitting consumer and business purchasing power. Thus, volumes are expected to witness flat growth in the first two quarters of 2023.
RELATED ARTICLESIncoming capacity poses fresh challenges for ocean freightA shift in consumer spend from products to services is putting pressure on the balance between capacity and demand.Forward indicators from export levels
Nomura’s leading index of Asia ex-Japan’s aggregate exports (NELI) found that the export outlook for China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand is declining. The latest NELI reading of 82.9 is the lowest since July 2020 when global trade ground to a halt due to Covid-led lockdowns.
The financial firm highlighted that a double-digit year-on-year decline looks likely, highlighting that South Korea’s export growth in the first 20 days of November fell by 16.7 percent year-on-year from a 5.5 percent contraction in October.
Unlike in mid-2020, when supply snarls were a major factor, the export softening in Asia is likely related to weakening aggregate demand. Nomura points out that Asian exports, historically a bellwether of global demand, suggest that it is no longer a question of if there will be recession in the U.S. and Europe, but rather how deep they will be.
RELATED ARTICLESShifting trends for air freight as the holiday season approachesShippers have to re-think their approach as air cargo demand lowers and ocean capacity returns.Silver lining from improving air capacity
Air freight supply chains are, however, expected to become more reliable. For example, the resumption of more international passenger services will open up new bellyhold options and increase global capacity.
On top of additional bellyhold capacity, other factors such as conversion to ocean freight and air freighter orders placed during the air cargo peak will start hitting the market, further adding to available capacity, according to benchmarking platform Xeneta.
DHL’s November Airfreight State of the Industry notes that global capacity in November was 10 percent higher than a year earlier and just 12 percent lower than in November 2019.
However, Xeneta warns that in many markets “this increase in capacity is unlikely to be supported by a similar growth in demand, therefore putting downward pressure on load factors”.
This will be good news for shippers. Leung noted that while some products were reverting to being shipped by sea, lower air cargo rates were making air freight forwarding options more affordable.
“It’s a tough market at the moment, but we are well-placed to continue to meet the needs of customers,” he added.] =>
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[$value] => Silver lining from improving air capacity
Air freight supply chains are, however, expected to become more reliable. For example, the resumption of more international passenger services will open up new bellyhold options and increase global capacity.
On top of additional bellyhold capacity, other factors such as conversion to ocean freight and air freighter orders placed during the air cargo peak will start hitting the market, further adding to available capacity, according to benchmarking platform Xeneta.
DHL’s November Airfreight State of the Industry notes that global capacity in November was 10 percent higher than a year earlier and just 12 percent lower than in November 2019.
However, Xeneta warns that in many markets “this increase in capacity is unlikely to be supported by a similar growth in demand, therefore putting downward pressure on load factors”.
This will be good news for shippers. Leung noted that while some products were reverting to being shipped by sea, lower air cargo rates were making air freight forwarding options more affordable.
“It’s a tough market at the moment, but we are well-placed to continue to meet the needs of customers,” he added.
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