Array
(
[derick] => Array
(
[Intra-Asian lanes affected by ongoing capacity shift from Asia to U.S.] => Intra-Asian lanes affected by ongoing capacity shift from Asia to U.S.
[Ongoing container fleet growth is slow and will require more time to balance out capacity versus demand.] => 集装箱船队持续增长放缓，需要更多时间使运力与需求达到平衡。
[[]] =>
[What does this mean for Asia?
The effect of intra-Asia capacity withdrawals has been an increase in freight rates and manufacturing costs in Asia. According to ocean and air freight rate benchmarking platform Xeneta, spot rates from the main Chinese ports to the main Japanese and South Korean ports in 2021 averaged USD 1,400 (€1,222) per Forty Equipment Unit (FEU), up from USD 640 (€560) in 2020. In the first half of January they rose above USD 1,800 (€1,571) per FEU.
“Though the increases are smaller than on some other major head haul trades, the higher spot prices can still have a considerable impact,” said Peter Sand, Chief Analyst , Xeneta. “Considering that many of the goods on these intra-Asian trades are intermediate goods moving between factories in the region, doubling spot freight rates can often add considerable costs to the manufacturing process, forcing manufacturers to reconsider their manufacturing and supply chains across the region.”
Leung said that while the company was hoping for some easing of the situation in the second half of this year, “DHL continues to secure capacity in sufficient scale to meet customer needs on all trades but booking early is paramount.”] => 这对亚洲来说意味着什么？
亚洲内部运力向外转移造成的影响是亚洲运价和制造成本上涨。海洋和航空货运比价平台Xeneta称，2021年，从中国主要港口到日本和韩国主要港口的即期运价平均为每个40英尺集装箱（FEU）1,400美元（1,222欧元），而2020年只有640美元（560欧元）。1月前半个月，运价超过了每个40英尺集装箱1,800美元（1,571欧元）。
“尽管运价的上涨幅度小于其他部分主要去程贸易的上涨幅度，但即期运价上涨仍然会产生显著影响，”Xeneta公司首席分析师Peter Sand说道。“考虑到亚洲内部航线上的很多货物是该地区内工厂之间转移的中间产品，即期运价上涨一倍会显著增加制造过程的成本，迫使制造商重新布局该地区的制造业务和供应链。”
Leung称，虽然公司希望今年下半年这种情况能够有所缓解，“但敦豪仍将继续保障充足的运力，以满足所有航线上的客户需求，但最重要的是及早预订。”
[Capacity gains and losses
The East-West capacity upgrades also came at the expense of liner offerings to and from Africa, where the combined capacity of ships trading between Asia, Europe, America and Africa fell by 6.4 percent to 1.68m TEU at the start of 2022.
Capacity deployed on the trans-Atlantic, and to and from the Middle East/Indian subcontinent, was relatively stable over the period while Latin America-related services saw an increase in capacity.
However, the intra-European trade proved to be another victim of the capacity shifts. “Some 48,200 TEU slots disappeared from intra-European services (- 4.5 percent),” noted Alphaliner. That capacity appeared to be heading to the Pacific.
“The ongoing capacity reduction was illustrated last month as the 974 TEU SPICA J left Europe for China. The SPICA J previously operated for many years as a typical feeder vessel in North Europe but left Rotterdam without any cargo mid-December for a voyage to Asia. The ship is currently loading Chinese export cargo in Taicang.”
Ongoing shifts from East to West
Although Asia-Europe trade saw a capacity increase of 10.2 percent last year, this was largely due to the delivery of 16,000-24,000 TEU, which replaced the smaller 13,000 TEU units, according to Alphaliner.
The loss of capacity on regional trades such as intra-Asia was primarily a result of vessels being transferred to the trans-Pacific lane, which remains the most profitable for carriers even though port congestion on both sides of the Pacific is at record highs.
Alphaliner estimates that January spot freight rates including premiums on the Shanghai-California lane corresponded to revenue for vessel operators of USD 1.29 (€1.13) per nautical mile. On Asia-Europe trade, the figure was just USD 0.73 (€0.64) , up from USD 0.42 (€0.37) at the start of 2021.
“At the start of this year, 22 percent of the total container fleet was deployed between Asia and North America, up from 17.5 percent on 1 January 2021,” notes the Update. “Carriers added 1.30m TEU of capacity to this major East-West route over the course of last year.”] => 运力增减变化
东西方之间的运力升级是以往返非洲班轮的减少为代价的，其中2022年初，亚洲、欧洲、美洲与非洲之间货船的总运力下降了6.4％，为168万个20英尺标准集装箱。
在这个期间内，部署在跨大西洋以及往返中东地区／印度次大陆航线上的运力较为稳定，其中与南美洲有关的航线运力有所增加。
然而，欧洲内部贸易是运力转移的另一个受害者。“欧洲内部贸易航运量减少了约48,200个20英尺标准集装箱（-4.5％），”Alphaliner称。这部分运力似乎转移到太平洋了。
“上个月，装有974个20英尺标准集装箱的SPICA J号货船离开欧洲驶往中国，体现了运力的持续下降。SPICA J号货船之前很多年都是在北欧运营的一艘典型支线货船，但去年12月中旬没有装载货物就离开了鹿特丹前往亚洲。这艘货船目前在太仓港装载中国出口货物。”
从东方到西方的持续转移
Alphaliner称，虽然去年亚欧贸易运力增长了10.2％，但这主要归因于16,000-24,000个20英尺标准集装箱的交付，这些集装箱取代了13,000个较小的20英尺标准集装箱。
地区贸易（例如亚洲内部）的运力损失主要是货船转移到跨太平洋航线引起的。虽然太平洋两岸的港口堵塞现象达到了创纪录的高水平，但这条航线对于承运商而言仍是最有利可图的。
Alphaliner估计，今年1月，即期运价（包括上海到加利福尼亚航线的溢价）给货船运营商带来的收入相当于每海里1.29美元（1.13欧元）。在亚欧贸易中，这一数字仅为0.73美元（0.64欧元），而2021年初为0.42美元（0.37欧元）。
“今年年初，全部集装箱船队有22％部署在亚洲与北美洲之间，而2021年1月1日这个比例为17.5％，”《海洋运输市场最新消息》提到。“过去一年内，承运商在这条东西方主要航线上增加了130万个20英尺标准集装箱的运力。”
[Congestion black hole
Unlike in 2020, extra tonnage in 2021 was drawn into the trans-Pacific. The capacity increase, however, was needed to compensate for the huge efficiency loss as many ships faced long waiting times at anchorages, rather than to cope with a corresponding surge in cargo demand.
Dominique von Orelli, Global Head, Ocean Freight, DHL Global Forwarding, said: “Carriers are making logical decisions based on the charter costs they must pay, and the likely returns they can make when deploying those vessels. That equation points to the highly lucrative trans-Pacific trade, despite the port congestion many encounter there.”
This is highlighted by the container traffic situation at Los Angeles (10.70m TEU) and Long Beach (9.38m TEU), which increased by a more modest 13 percent and 15.7 percent, respectively, last year.
“It is important to note that this is not just about big container lines moving capacity, this is also much smaller operators and feeder companies that are re-diverting ships, and also big shippers which have been chartering their own vessels,” added von Orelli.
While port congestions will continue well into 2022, container production is on track to overtake demand growth. Equipment availability, however, will only see more apparent improvements from 2023.] => 堵塞黑洞
与2020年，2021年的新增货量被吸引到跨太平洋航线上。然而，需要增加运力才能补偿巨大的效率损失，而不是应对货物需求的相应激增，因为很多货船需要在锚地等待很长时间。
敦豪全球货运海运部全球主管Dominique von Orelli说道：“承运商根据自己必须支付的包船费用以及部署货船可能带来的收益做出合理的决定。尽管很多承运商经历了港口堵塞，但他们仍然选择了有高额利润的跨太平洋贸易。”
洛杉矶（1070万个20英尺标准集装箱）和长滩（938万个20英尺标准集装箱）的集装箱运输情况同比分别增长了13％和15.7％，表明了这种趋势。
“必须注意的是，这不仅涉及进行运力转移的大型集装箱航运公司，还涉及到转移货船的规模小得多的运营商和支线航运公司，以及包租自己货船的大型发货人，”von Orelli补充道。
虽然港口堵塞会一直持续到2022，但集装箱生产已经步入正轨，可以赶超需求增长。然而，集装箱利用率要从2023年开始才会发生明显改善。
[The pandemic-driven shift of U.S. consumption from services to products, and the resulting surges in trans-Pacific ocean container demand and freight rates, are sucking ships out of Asia and driving up the region’s manufacturing and supply chain costs, according to DHL’s February Ocean Freight Market Update and the latest insight from leading analysts.
This increase in capacity has left holes both outside and within the region. At the start of 2022, 43.7 percent of the global fleet was operating on the Asia-Europe and trans-Pacific lanes, up from 38.1 percent a year earlier.
But the hardest hit has been trade within Asia itself. Some 331,200 Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit (TEU) slots have been removed from intra-Asian services last year, representing a capacity reduction of 10.8 percent, according to online shipping database Alphaliner. That has caused spot rates in some parts of Asia to more than double year-on-year, with no sign of them abating.
Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific, said: “After two years of logistics shocks, these increases in intra-Asia rates are not the biggest hurdle supply chain managers have had to cope with. But they are adding to overall supply chain and production costs. We are hoping for some easing of the situation in the second half of this year.”
The shift in capacity to trans-Pacific routes was evident early in the pandemic. As U.S. consumers splurged on lifestyle products during Covid-19 lockdowns, freight rates on the trans-Pacific rose sharply from Q2 2020. Drawn by the demand and profits to be made, carriers began to divert large numbers of ships to the region.
This has left some regions severely short as most additional capacity was sucked into East-West shipping lanes at the expense of regional and Africa trades.] => 根据2月敦豪《海洋运输市场最新消息》和顶尖分析师的最新观点，美国消费在疫情推动下从服务转向产品，以及由此带来的跨太平洋海运集装箱需求和运价的激增，吸引货船离开亚洲，而且推高该地区的制造和供应链成本。
运力增长在该地区之外和之内造成了一定的影响。2022年初，全球43.7％的船队都在亚洲到欧洲和跨太平洋航道上航行，与去年同期相比增长了38.1％。
然而，受影响最大的是亚洲内部贸易本身。网上航运数据库Alphaliner称，去年亚洲内部航运量减少了约331,200个20英尺标准集装箱（TEU），相当于运力下降了10.8％，导致亚洲部分地区即期运价同比上涨一倍以上，而且没有下降的迹象。
敦豪全球货运亚太区首席执行官Kelvin Leung说道：“经过两年物流震荡后，亚洲内部运价的上涨并非供应链管理者需要解决的最大障碍，但这种上涨提高了总体供应链和生产成本。我们希望今年下半年这种情况能够有所缓和。”
运力向跨太平洋航线转移在疫情爆发初期就已经很明显了。随着美国消费者在疫情封锁期间大肆购买生活方式产品，从2020年第二季度开始，跨太平洋航线的运价大幅上涨。在需求和利润的驱使下，承运商开始将大量货船转移到这个地区。
这导致部分地区运力严重不足，因为大部分新增运力都被吸引到东西方之间的航线，牺牲了地区性和非洲贸易。
[wysiwyg] => wysiwyg
[outbound_box] => outbound_box
[Ongoing container fleet growth is slow and will require more time to balance out capacity versus demand. The pandemic-driven shift of U.S. consumption from services to products, and the resulting surges in trans-Pacific ocean container demand and freight rates, are sucking ships out of Asia and driving up the region’s manufacturing and supply chain costs, according to DHL’s February Ocean Freight Market Update and the latest insight from leading analysts.
This increase in capacity has left holes both outside and within the region. At the start of 2022, 43.7 percent of the global fleet was operating on the Asia-Europe and trans-Pacific lanes, up from 38.1 percent a year earlier.
But the hardest hit has been trade within Asia itself. Some 331,200 Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit (TEU) slots have been removed from intra-Asian services last year, representing a capacity reduction of 10.8 percent, according to online shipping database Alphaliner. That has caused spot rates in some parts of Asia to more than double year-on-year, with no sign of them abating.
Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific, said: “After two years of logistics shocks, these increases in intra-Asia rates are not the biggest hurdle supply chain managers have had to cope with. But they are adding to overall supply chain and production costs. We are hoping for some easing of the situation in the second half of this year.”
The shift in capacity to trans-Pacific routes was evident early in the pandemic. As U.S. consumers splurged on lifestyle products during Covid-19 lockdowns, freight rates on the trans-Pacific rose sharply from Q2 2020. Drawn by the demand and profits to be made, carriers began to divert large numbers of ships to the region.
This has left some regions severely short as most additional capacity was sucked into East-West shipping lanes at the expense of regional and Africa trades.
RELATED ARTICLESPort congestions set the tone for a volatile 2022Ports will remain a bottleneck in the supply chain, with capacity and reliability only likely to stabilize later in this year or next.What does this mean for Asia?
The effect of intra-Asia capacity withdrawals has been an increase in freight rates and manufacturing costs in Asia. According to ocean and air freight rate benchmarking platform Xeneta, spot rates from the main Chinese ports to the main Japanese and South Korean ports in 2021 averaged USD 1,400 (€1,222) per Forty Equipment Unit (FEU), up from USD 640 (€560) in 2020. In the first half of January they rose above USD 1,800 (€1,571) per FEU.
“Though the increases are smaller than on some other major head haul trades, the higher spot prices can still have a considerable impact,” said Peter Sand, Chief Analyst , Xeneta. “Considering that many of the goods on these intra-Asian trades are intermediate goods moving between factories in the region, doubling spot freight rates can often add considerable costs to the manufacturing process, forcing manufacturers to reconsider their manufacturing and supply chains across the region.”
Leung said that while the company was hoping for some easing of the situation in the second half of this year, “DHL continues to secure capacity in sufficient scale to meet customer needs on all trades but booking early is paramount.”
RELATED ARTICLESRising export levels inspire cautious optimismDespite continuing risks, there are some positive signs for ocean shipping stakeholders.Capacity gains and losses
The East-West capacity upgrades also came at the expense of liner offerings to and from Africa, where the combined capacity of ships trading between Asia, Europe, America and Africa fell by 6.4 percent to 1.68m TEU at the start of 2022.
Capacity deployed on the trans-Atlantic, and to and from the Middle East/Indian subcontinent, was relatively stable over the period while Latin America-related services saw an increase in capacity.
However, the intra-European trade proved to be another victim of the capacity shifts. “Some 48,200 TEU slots disappeared from intra-European services (- 4.5 percent),” noted Alphaliner. That capacity appeared to be heading to the Pacific.
“The ongoing capacity reduction was illustrated last month as the 974 TEU SPICA J left Europe for China. The SPICA J previously operated for many years as a typical feeder vessel in North Europe but left Rotterdam without any cargo mid-December for a voyage to Asia. The ship is currently loading Chinese export cargo in Taicang.”
Ongoing shifts from East to West
Although Asia-Europe trade saw a capacity increase of 10.2 percent last year, this was largely due to the delivery of 16,000-24,000 TEU, which replaced the smaller 13,000 TEU units, according to Alphaliner.
The loss of capacity on regional trades such as intra-Asia was primarily a result of vessels being transferred to the trans-Pacific lane, which remains the most profitable for carriers even though port congestion on both sides of the Pacific is at record highs.
Alphaliner estimates that January spot freight rates including premiums on the Shanghai-California lane corresponded to revenue for vessel operators of USD 1.29 (€1.13) per nautical mile. On Asia-Europe trade, the figure was just USD 0.73 (€0.64) , up from USD 0.42 (€0.37) at the start of 2021.
“At the start of this year, 22 percent of the total container fleet was deployed between Asia and North America, up from 17.5 percent on 1 January 2021,” notes the Update. “Carriers added 1.30m TEU of capacity to this major East-West route over the course of last year.”
RELATED ARTICLESDHL Ocean Freight Market Update Outlook 2022-2024Demand remains strong amidst limited capacity, with freight rates looking to stabilize much later in 2024.Congestion black hole
Unlike in 2020, extra tonnage in 2021 was drawn into the trans-Pacific. The capacity increase, however, was needed to compensate for the huge efficiency loss as many ships faced long waiting times at anchorages, rather than to cope with a corresponding surge in cargo demand.
Dominique von Orelli, Global Head, Ocean Freight, DHL Global Forwarding, said: “Carriers are making logical decisions based on the charter costs they must pay, and the likely returns they can make when deploying those vessels. That equation points to the highly lucrative trans-Pacific trade, despite the port congestion many encounter there.”
This is highlighted by the container traffic situation at Los Angeles (10.70m TEU) and Long Beach (9.38m TEU), which increased by a more modest 13 percent and 15.7 percent, respectively, last year.
“It is important to note that this is not just about big container lines moving capacity, this is also much smaller operators and feeder companies that are re-diverting ships, and also big shippers which have been chartering their own vessels,” added von Orelli.
While port congestions will continue well into 2022, container production is on track to overtake demand growth. Equipment availability, however, will only see more apparent improvements from 2023.] =>
[] =>
[intra-asian-lanes-affected-capacity-shift-us] => intra-asian-lanes-affected-capacity-shift-us
[Monthly ocean freight update] =>
[port-congestions-volatile-2022-key-image] => port-congestions-volatile-2022-key-image
[Port congestions set the tone for a volatile 2022] => Port congestions set the tone for a volatile 2022
[ocean-freight-Dec-2021-update-key-image] => ocean-freight-Dec-2021-update-key-image
[DHL Ocean Freight Market Update Dec 2021] => DHL Ocean Freight Market Update Dec 2021
[OFR-market-update-Jan-2022-key-image] => OFR-market-update-Jan-2022-key-image
[Ocean Freight Market Update 2022-2024] => Ocean Freight Market Update 2022-2024
[intra-asian-lanes-affected-single-column] => intra-asian-lanes-affected-single-column
[intra-asian-lanes-affected-key-image] => intra-asian-lanes-affected-key-image
)
[$value] => The pandemic-driven shift of U.S. consumption from services to products, and the resulting surges in trans-Pacific ocean container demand and freight rates, are sucking ships out of Asia and driving up the region’s manufacturing and supply chain costs, according to DHL’s February Ocean Freight Market Update and the latest insight from leading analysts.
This increase in capacity has left holes both outside and within the region. At the start of 2022, 43.7 percent of the global fleet was operating on the Asia-Europe and trans-Pacific lanes, up from 38.1 percent a year earlier.
But the hardest hit has been trade within Asia itself. Some 331,200 Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit (TEU) slots have been removed from intra-Asian services last year, representing a capacity reduction of 10.8 percent, according to online shipping database Alphaliner. That has caused spot rates in some parts of Asia to more than double year-on-year, with no sign of them abating.
Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific, said: “After two years of logistics shocks, these increases in intra-Asia rates are not the biggest hurdle supply chain managers have had to cope with. But they are adding to overall supply chain and production costs. We are hoping for some easing of the situation in the second half of this year.”
The shift in capacity to trans-Pacific routes was evident early in the pandemic. As U.S. consumers splurged on lifestyle products during Covid-19 lockdowns, freight rates on the trans-Pacific rose sharply from Q2 2020. Drawn by the demand and profits to be made, carriers began to divert large numbers of ships to the region.
This has left some regions severely short as most additional capacity was sucked into East-West shipping lanes at the expense of regional and Africa trades.
)
Array
(
[derick] => Array
(
[Intra-Asian lanes affected by ongoing capacity shift from Asia to U.S.] => Intra-Asian lanes affected by ongoing capacity shift from Asia to U.S.
[Ongoing container fleet growth is slow and will require more time to balance out capacity versus demand.] => 集装箱船队持续增长放缓，需要更多时间使运力与需求达到平衡。
[[]] =>
[What does this mean for Asia?
The effect of intra-Asia capacity withdrawals has been an increase in freight rates and manufacturing costs in Asia. According to ocean and air freight rate benchmarking platform Xeneta, spot rates from the main Chinese ports to the main Japanese and South Korean ports in 2021 averaged USD 1,400 (€1,222) per Forty Equipment Unit (FEU), up from USD 640 (€560) in 2020. In the first half of January they rose above USD 1,800 (€1,571) per FEU.
“Though the increases are smaller than on some other major head haul trades, the higher spot prices can still have a considerable impact,” said Peter Sand, Chief Analyst , Xeneta. “Considering that many of the goods on these intra-Asian trades are intermediate goods moving between factories in the region, doubling spot freight rates can often add considerable costs to the manufacturing process, forcing manufacturers to reconsider their manufacturing and supply chains across the region.”
Leung said that while the company was hoping for some easing of the situation in the second half of this year, “DHL continues to secure capacity in sufficient scale to meet customer needs on all trades but booking early is paramount.”] => 这对亚洲来说意味着什么？
亚洲内部运力向外转移造成的影响是亚洲运价和制造成本上涨。海洋和航空货运比价平台Xeneta称，2021年，从中国主要港口到日本和韩国主要港口的即期运价平均为每个40英尺集装箱（FEU）1,400美元（1,222欧元），而2020年只有640美元（560欧元）。1月前半个月，运价超过了每个40英尺集装箱1,800美元（1,571欧元）。
“尽管运价的上涨幅度小于其他部分主要去程贸易的上涨幅度，但即期运价上涨仍然会产生显著影响，”Xeneta公司首席分析师Peter Sand说道。“考虑到亚洲内部航线上的很多货物是该地区内工厂之间转移的中间产品，即期运价上涨一倍会显著增加制造过程的成本，迫使制造商重新布局该地区的制造业务和供应链。”
Leung称，虽然公司希望今年下半年这种情况能够有所缓解，“但敦豪仍将继续保障充足的运力，以满足所有航线上的客户需求，但最重要的是及早预订。”
[Capacity gains and losses
The East-West capacity upgrades also came at the expense of liner offerings to and from Africa, where the combined capacity of ships trading between Asia, Europe, America and Africa fell by 6.4 percent to 1.68m TEU at the start of 2022.
Capacity deployed on the trans-Atlantic, and to and from the Middle East/Indian subcontinent, was relatively stable over the period while Latin America-related services saw an increase in capacity.
However, the intra-European trade proved to be another victim of the capacity shifts. “Some 48,200 TEU slots disappeared from intra-European services (- 4.5 percent),” noted Alphaliner. That capacity appeared to be heading to the Pacific.
“The ongoing capacity reduction was illustrated last month as the 974 TEU SPICA J left Europe for China. The SPICA J previously operated for many years as a typical feeder vessel in North Europe but left Rotterdam without any cargo mid-December for a voyage to Asia. The ship is currently loading Chinese export cargo in Taicang.”
Ongoing shifts from East to West
Although Asia-Europe trade saw a capacity increase of 10.2 percent last year, this was largely due to the delivery of 16,000-24,000 TEU, which replaced the smaller 13,000 TEU units, according to Alphaliner.
The loss of capacity on regional trades such as intra-Asia was primarily a result of vessels being transferred to the trans-Pacific lane, which remains the most profitable for carriers even though port congestion on both sides of the Pacific is at record highs.
Alphaliner estimates that January spot freight rates including premiums on the Shanghai-California lane corresponded to revenue for vessel operators of USD 1.29 (€1.13) per nautical mile. On Asia-Europe trade, the figure was just USD 0.73 (€0.64) , up from USD 0.42 (€0.37) at the start of 2021.
“At the start of this year, 22 percent of the total container fleet was deployed between Asia and North America, up from 17.5 percent on 1 January 2021,” notes the Update. “Carriers added 1.30m TEU of capacity to this major East-West route over the course of last year.”] => 运力增减变化
东西方之间的运力升级是以往返非洲班轮的减少为代价的，其中2022年初，亚洲、欧洲、美洲与非洲之间货船的总运力下降了6.4％，为168万个20英尺标准集装箱。
在这个期间内，部署在跨大西洋以及往返中东地区／印度次大陆航线上的运力较为稳定，其中与南美洲有关的航线运力有所增加。
然而，欧洲内部贸易是运力转移的另一个受害者。“欧洲内部贸易航运量减少了约48,200个20英尺标准集装箱（-4.5％），”Alphaliner称。这部分运力似乎转移到太平洋了。
“上个月，装有974个20英尺标准集装箱的SPICA J号货船离开欧洲驶往中国，体现了运力的持续下降。SPICA J号货船之前很多年都是在北欧运营的一艘典型支线货船，但去年12月中旬没有装载货物就离开了鹿特丹前往亚洲。这艘货船目前在太仓港装载中国出口货物。”
从东方到西方的持续转移
Alphaliner称，虽然去年亚欧贸易运力增长了10.2％，但这主要归因于16,000-24,000个20英尺标准集装箱的交付，这些集装箱取代了13,000个较小的20英尺标准集装箱。
地区贸易（例如亚洲内部）的运力损失主要是货船转移到跨太平洋航线引起的。虽然太平洋两岸的港口堵塞现象达到了创纪录的高水平，但这条航线对于承运商而言仍是最有利可图的。
Alphaliner估计，今年1月，即期运价（包括上海到加利福尼亚航线的溢价）给货船运营商带来的收入相当于每海里1.29美元（1.13欧元）。在亚欧贸易中，这一数字仅为0.73美元（0.64欧元），而2021年初为0.42美元（0.37欧元）。
“今年年初，全部集装箱船队有22％部署在亚洲与北美洲之间，而2021年1月1日这个比例为17.5％，”《海洋运输市场最新消息》提到。“过去一年内，承运商在这条东西方主要航线上增加了130万个20英尺标准集装箱的运力。”
[Congestion black hole
Unlike in 2020, extra tonnage in 2021 was drawn into the trans-Pacific. The capacity increase, however, was needed to compensate for the huge efficiency loss as many ships faced long waiting times at anchorages, rather than to cope with a corresponding surge in cargo demand.
Dominique von Orelli, Global Head, Ocean Freight, DHL Global Forwarding, said: “Carriers are making logical decisions based on the charter costs they must pay, and the likely returns they can make when deploying those vessels. That equation points to the highly lucrative trans-Pacific trade, despite the port congestion many encounter there.”
This is highlighted by the container traffic situation at Los Angeles (10.70m TEU) and Long Beach (9.38m TEU), which increased by a more modest 13 percent and 15.7 percent, respectively, last year.
“It is important to note that this is not just about big container lines moving capacity, this is also much smaller operators and feeder companies that are re-diverting ships, and also big shippers which have been chartering their own vessels,” added von Orelli.
While port congestions will continue well into 2022, container production is on track to overtake demand growth. Equipment availability, however, will only see more apparent improvements from 2023.] => 堵塞黑洞
与2020年，2021年的新增货量被吸引到跨太平洋航线上。然而，需要增加运力才能补偿巨大的效率损失，而不是应对货物需求的相应激增，因为很多货船需要在锚地等待很长时间。
敦豪全球货运海运部全球主管Dominique von Orelli说道：“承运商根据自己必须支付的包船费用以及部署货船可能带来的收益做出合理的决定。尽管很多承运商经历了港口堵塞，但他们仍然选择了有高额利润的跨太平洋贸易。”
洛杉矶（1070万个20英尺标准集装箱）和长滩（938万个20英尺标准集装箱）的集装箱运输情况同比分别增长了13％和15.7％，表明了这种趋势。
“必须注意的是，这不仅涉及进行运力转移的大型集装箱航运公司，还涉及到转移货船的规模小得多的运营商和支线航运公司，以及包租自己货船的大型发货人，”von Orelli补充道。
虽然港口堵塞会一直持续到2022，但集装箱生产已经步入正轨，可以赶超需求增长。然而，集装箱利用率要从2023年开始才会发生明显改善。
[The pandemic-driven shift of U.S. consumption from services to products, and the resulting surges in trans-Pacific ocean container demand and freight rates, are sucking ships out of Asia and driving up the region’s manufacturing and supply chain costs, according to DHL’s February Ocean Freight Market Update and the latest insight from leading analysts.
This increase in capacity has left holes both outside and within the region. At the start of 2022, 43.7 percent of the global fleet was operating on the Asia-Europe and trans-Pacific lanes, up from 38.1 percent a year earlier.
But the hardest hit has been trade within Asia itself. Some 331,200 Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit (TEU) slots have been removed from intra-Asian services last year, representing a capacity reduction of 10.8 percent, according to online shipping database Alphaliner. That has caused spot rates in some parts of Asia to more than double year-on-year, with no sign of them abating.
Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific, said: “After two years of logistics shocks, these increases in intra-Asia rates are not the biggest hurdle supply chain managers have had to cope with. But they are adding to overall supply chain and production costs. We are hoping for some easing of the situation in the second half of this year.”
The shift in capacity to trans-Pacific routes was evident early in the pandemic. As U.S. consumers splurged on lifestyle products during Covid-19 lockdowns, freight rates on the trans-Pacific rose sharply from Q2 2020. Drawn by the demand and profits to be made, carriers began to divert large numbers of ships to the region.
This has left some regions severely short as most additional capacity was sucked into East-West shipping lanes at the expense of regional and Africa trades.] => 根据2月敦豪《海洋运输市场最新消息》和顶尖分析师的最新观点，美国消费在疫情推动下从服务转向产品，以及由此带来的跨太平洋海运集装箱需求和运价的激增，吸引货船离开亚洲，而且推高该地区的制造和供应链成本。
运力增长在该地区之外和之内造成了一定的影响。2022年初，全球43.7％的船队都在亚洲到欧洲和跨太平洋航道上航行，与去年同期相比增长了38.1％。
然而，受影响最大的是亚洲内部贸易本身。网上航运数据库Alphaliner称，去年亚洲内部航运量减少了约331,200个20英尺标准集装箱（TEU），相当于运力下降了10.8％，导致亚洲部分地区即期运价同比上涨一倍以上，而且没有下降的迹象。
敦豪全球货运亚太区首席执行官Kelvin Leung说道：“经过两年物流震荡后，亚洲内部运价的上涨并非供应链管理者需要解决的最大障碍，但这种上涨提高了总体供应链和生产成本。我们希望今年下半年这种情况能够有所缓和。”
运力向跨太平洋航线转移在疫情爆发初期就已经很明显了。随着美国消费者在疫情封锁期间大肆购买生活方式产品，从2020年第二季度开始，跨太平洋航线的运价大幅上涨。在需求和利润的驱使下，承运商开始将大量货船转移到这个地区。
这导致部分地区运力严重不足，因为大部分新增运力都被吸引到东西方之间的航线，牺牲了地区性和非洲贸易。
[wysiwyg] => wysiwyg
[outbound_box] => outbound_box
[Ongoing container fleet growth is slow and will require more time to balance out capacity versus demand. The pandemic-driven shift of U.S. consumption from services to products, and the resulting surges in trans-Pacific ocean container demand and freight rates, are sucking ships out of Asia and driving up the region’s manufacturing and supply chain costs, according to DHL’s February Ocean Freight Market Update and the latest insight from leading analysts.
This increase in capacity has left holes both outside and within the region. At the start of 2022, 43.7 percent of the global fleet was operating on the Asia-Europe and trans-Pacific lanes, up from 38.1 percent a year earlier.
But the hardest hit has been trade within Asia itself. Some 331,200 Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit (TEU) slots have been removed from intra-Asian services last year, representing a capacity reduction of 10.8 percent, according to online shipping database Alphaliner. That has caused spot rates in some parts of Asia to more than double year-on-year, with no sign of them abating.
Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific, said: “After two years of logistics shocks, these increases in intra-Asia rates are not the biggest hurdle supply chain managers have had to cope with. But they are adding to overall supply chain and production costs. We are hoping for some easing of the situation in the second half of this year.”
The shift in capacity to trans-Pacific routes was evident early in the pandemic. As U.S. consumers splurged on lifestyle products during Covid-19 lockdowns, freight rates on the trans-Pacific rose sharply from Q2 2020. Drawn by the demand and profits to be made, carriers began to divert large numbers of ships to the region.
This has left some regions severely short as most additional capacity was sucked into East-West shipping lanes at the expense of regional and Africa trades.
RELATED ARTICLESPort congestions set the tone for a volatile 2022Ports will remain a bottleneck in the supply chain, with capacity and reliability only likely to stabilize later in this year or next.What does this mean for Asia?
The effect of intra-Asia capacity withdrawals has been an increase in freight rates and manufacturing costs in Asia. According to ocean and air freight rate benchmarking platform Xeneta, spot rates from the main Chinese ports to the main Japanese and South Korean ports in 2021 averaged USD 1,400 (€1,222) per Forty Equipment Unit (FEU), up from USD 640 (€560) in 2020. In the first half of January they rose above USD 1,800 (€1,571) per FEU.
“Though the increases are smaller than on some other major head haul trades, the higher spot prices can still have a considerable impact,” said Peter Sand, Chief Analyst , Xeneta. “Considering that many of the goods on these intra-Asian trades are intermediate goods moving between factories in the region, doubling spot freight rates can often add considerable costs to the manufacturing process, forcing manufacturers to reconsider their manufacturing and supply chains across the region.”
Leung said that while the company was hoping for some easing of the situation in the second half of this year, “DHL continues to secure capacity in sufficient scale to meet customer needs on all trades but booking early is paramount.”
RELATED ARTICLESRising export levels inspire cautious optimismDespite continuing risks, there are some positive signs for ocean shipping stakeholders.Capacity gains and losses
The East-West capacity upgrades also came at the expense of liner offerings to and from Africa, where the combined capacity of ships trading between Asia, Europe, America and Africa fell by 6.4 percent to 1.68m TEU at the start of 2022.
Capacity deployed on the trans-Atlantic, and to and from the Middle East/Indian subcontinent, was relatively stable over the period while Latin America-related services saw an increase in capacity.
However, the intra-European trade proved to be another victim of the capacity shifts. “Some 48,200 TEU slots disappeared from intra-European services (- 4.5 percent),” noted Alphaliner. That capacity appeared to be heading to the Pacific.
“The ongoing capacity reduction was illustrated last month as the 974 TEU SPICA J left Europe for China. The SPICA J previously operated for many years as a typical feeder vessel in North Europe but left Rotterdam without any cargo mid-December for a voyage to Asia. The ship is currently loading Chinese export cargo in Taicang.”
Ongoing shifts from East to West
Although Asia-Europe trade saw a capacity increase of 10.2 percent last year, this was largely due to the delivery of 16,000-24,000 TEU, which replaced the smaller 13,000 TEU units, according to Alphaliner.
The loss of capacity on regional trades such as intra-Asia was primarily a result of vessels being transferred to the trans-Pacific lane, which remains the most profitable for carriers even though port congestion on both sides of the Pacific is at record highs.
Alphaliner estimates that January spot freight rates including premiums on the Shanghai-California lane corresponded to revenue for vessel operators of USD 1.29 (€1.13) per nautical mile. On Asia-Europe trade, the figure was just USD 0.73 (€0.64) , up from USD 0.42 (€0.37) at the start of 2021.
“At the start of this year, 22 percent of the total container fleet was deployed between Asia and North America, up from 17.5 percent on 1 January 2021,” notes the Update. “Carriers added 1.30m TEU of capacity to this major East-West route over the course of last year.”
RELATED ARTICLESDHL Ocean Freight Market Update Outlook 2022-2024Demand remains strong amidst limited capacity, with freight rates looking to stabilize much later in 2024.Congestion black hole
Unlike in 2020, extra tonnage in 2021 was drawn into the trans-Pacific. The capacity increase, however, was needed to compensate for the huge efficiency loss as many ships faced long waiting times at anchorages, rather than to cope with a corresponding surge in cargo demand.
Dominique von Orelli, Global Head, Ocean Freight, DHL Global Forwarding, said: “Carriers are making logical decisions based on the charter costs they must pay, and the likely returns they can make when deploying those vessels. That equation points to the highly lucrative trans-Pacific trade, despite the port congestion many encounter there.”
This is highlighted by the container traffic situation at Los Angeles (10.70m TEU) and Long Beach (9.38m TEU), which increased by a more modest 13 percent and 15.7 percent, respectively, last year.
“It is important to note that this is not just about big container lines moving capacity, this is also much smaller operators and feeder companies that are re-diverting ships, and also big shippers which have been chartering their own vessels,” added von Orelli.
While port congestions will continue well into 2022, container production is on track to overtake demand growth. Equipment availability, however, will only see more apparent improvements from 2023.] =>
[] =>
[intra-asian-lanes-affected-capacity-shift-us] => intra-asian-lanes-affected-capacity-shift-us
[Monthly ocean freight update] =>
[port-congestions-volatile-2022-key-image] => port-congestions-volatile-2022-key-image
[Port congestions set the tone for a volatile 2022] => Port congestions set the tone for a volatile 2022
[ocean-freight-Dec-2021-update-key-image] => ocean-freight-Dec-2021-update-key-image
[DHL Ocean Freight Market Update Dec 2021] => DHL Ocean Freight Market Update Dec 2021
[OFR-market-update-Jan-2022-key-image] => OFR-market-update-Jan-2022-key-image
[Ocean Freight Market Update 2022-2024] => Ocean Freight Market Update 2022-2024
[intra-asian-lanes-affected-single-column] => intra-asian-lanes-affected-single-column
[intra-asian-lanes-affected-key-image] => intra-asian-lanes-affected-key-image
)
[$value] =>
What does this mean for Asia?
The effect of intra-Asia capacity withdrawals has been an increase in freight rates and manufacturing costs in Asia. According to ocean and air freight rate benchmarking platform Xeneta, spot rates from the main Chinese ports to the main Japanese and South Korean ports in 2021 averaged USD 1,400 (€1,222) per Forty Equipment Unit (FEU), up from USD 640 (€560) in 2020. In the first half of January they rose above USD 1,800 (€1,571) per FEU.
“Though the increases are smaller than on some other major head haul trades, the higher spot prices can still have a considerable impact,” said Peter Sand, Chief Analyst , Xeneta. “Considering that many of the goods on these intra-Asian trades are intermediate goods moving between factories in the region, doubling spot freight rates can often add considerable costs to the manufacturing process, forcing manufacturers to reconsider their manufacturing and supply chains across the region.”
Leung said that while the company was hoping for some easing of the situation in the second half of this year, “DHL continues to secure capacity in sufficient scale to meet customer needs on all trades but booking early is paramount.”
)
Array
(
[derick] => Array
(
[Intra-Asian lanes affected by ongoing capacity shift from Asia to U.S.] => Intra-Asian lanes affected by ongoing capacity shift from Asia to U.S.
[Ongoing container fleet growth is slow and will require more time to balance out capacity versus demand.] => 集装箱船队持续增长放缓，需要更多时间使运力与需求达到平衡。
[[]] =>
[What does this mean for Asia?
The effect of intra-Asia capacity withdrawals has been an increase in freight rates and manufacturing costs in Asia. According to ocean and air freight rate benchmarking platform Xeneta, spot rates from the main Chinese ports to the main Japanese and South Korean ports in 2021 averaged USD 1,400 (€1,222) per Forty Equipment Unit (FEU), up from USD 640 (€560) in 2020. In the first half of January they rose above USD 1,800 (€1,571) per FEU.
“Though the increases are smaller than on some other major head haul trades, the higher spot prices can still have a considerable impact,” said Peter Sand, Chief Analyst , Xeneta. “Considering that many of the goods on these intra-Asian trades are intermediate goods moving between factories in the region, doubling spot freight rates can often add considerable costs to the manufacturing process, forcing manufacturers to reconsider their manufacturing and supply chains across the region.”
Leung said that while the company was hoping for some easing of the situation in the second half of this year, “DHL continues to secure capacity in sufficient scale to meet customer needs on all trades but booking early is paramount.”] => 这对亚洲来说意味着什么？
亚洲内部运力向外转移造成的影响是亚洲运价和制造成本上涨。海洋和航空货运比价平台Xeneta称，2021年，从中国主要港口到日本和韩国主要港口的即期运价平均为每个40英尺集装箱（FEU）1,400美元（1,222欧元），而2020年只有640美元（560欧元）。1月前半个月，运价超过了每个40英尺集装箱1,800美元（1,571欧元）。
“尽管运价的上涨幅度小于其他部分主要去程贸易的上涨幅度，但即期运价上涨仍然会产生显著影响，”Xeneta公司首席分析师Peter Sand说道。“考虑到亚洲内部航线上的很多货物是该地区内工厂之间转移的中间产品，即期运价上涨一倍会显著增加制造过程的成本，迫使制造商重新布局该地区的制造业务和供应链。”
Leung称，虽然公司希望今年下半年这种情况能够有所缓解，“但敦豪仍将继续保障充足的运力，以满足所有航线上的客户需求，但最重要的是及早预订。”
[Capacity gains and losses
The East-West capacity upgrades also came at the expense of liner offerings to and from Africa, where the combined capacity of ships trading between Asia, Europe, America and Africa fell by 6.4 percent to 1.68m TEU at the start of 2022.
Capacity deployed on the trans-Atlantic, and to and from the Middle East/Indian subcontinent, was relatively stable over the period while Latin America-related services saw an increase in capacity.
However, the intra-European trade proved to be another victim of the capacity shifts. “Some 48,200 TEU slots disappeared from intra-European services (- 4.5 percent),” noted Alphaliner. That capacity appeared to be heading to the Pacific.
“The ongoing capacity reduction was illustrated last month as the 974 TEU SPICA J left Europe for China. The SPICA J previously operated for many years as a typical feeder vessel in North Europe but left Rotterdam without any cargo mid-December for a voyage to Asia. The ship is currently loading Chinese export cargo in Taicang.”
Ongoing shifts from East to West
Although Asia-Europe trade saw a capacity increase of 10.2 percent last year, this was largely due to the delivery of 16,000-24,000 TEU, which replaced the smaller 13,000 TEU units, according to Alphaliner.
The loss of capacity on regional trades such as intra-Asia was primarily a result of vessels being transferred to the trans-Pacific lane, which remains the most profitable for carriers even though port congestion on both sides of the Pacific is at record highs.
Alphaliner estimates that January spot freight rates including premiums on the Shanghai-California lane corresponded to revenue for vessel operators of USD 1.29 (€1.13) per nautical mile. On Asia-Europe trade, the figure was just USD 0.73 (€0.64) , up from USD 0.42 (€0.37) at the start of 2021.
“At the start of this year, 22 percent of the total container fleet was deployed between Asia and North America, up from 17.5 percent on 1 January 2021,” notes the Update. “Carriers added 1.30m TEU of capacity to this major East-West route over the course of last year.”] => 运力增减变化
东西方之间的运力升级是以往返非洲班轮的减少为代价的，其中2022年初，亚洲、欧洲、美洲与非洲之间货船的总运力下降了6.4％，为168万个20英尺标准集装箱。
在这个期间内，部署在跨大西洋以及往返中东地区／印度次大陆航线上的运力较为稳定，其中与南美洲有关的航线运力有所增加。
然而，欧洲内部贸易是运力转移的另一个受害者。“欧洲内部贸易航运量减少了约48,200个20英尺标准集装箱（-4.5％），”Alphaliner称。这部分运力似乎转移到太平洋了。
“上个月，装有974个20英尺标准集装箱的SPICA J号货船离开欧洲驶往中国，体现了运力的持续下降。SPICA J号货船之前很多年都是在北欧运营的一艘典型支线货船，但去年12月中旬没有装载货物就离开了鹿特丹前往亚洲。这艘货船目前在太仓港装载中国出口货物。”
从东方到西方的持续转移
Alphaliner称，虽然去年亚欧贸易运力增长了10.2％，但这主要归因于16,000-24,000个20英尺标准集装箱的交付，这些集装箱取代了13,000个较小的20英尺标准集装箱。
地区贸易（例如亚洲内部）的运力损失主要是货船转移到跨太平洋航线引起的。虽然太平洋两岸的港口堵塞现象达到了创纪录的高水平，但这条航线对于承运商而言仍是最有利可图的。
Alphaliner估计，今年1月，即期运价（包括上海到加利福尼亚航线的溢价）给货船运营商带来的收入相当于每海里1.29美元（1.13欧元）。在亚欧贸易中，这一数字仅为0.73美元（0.64欧元），而2021年初为0.42美元（0.37欧元）。
“今年年初，全部集装箱船队有22％部署在亚洲与北美洲之间，而2021年1月1日这个比例为17.5％，”《海洋运输市场最新消息》提到。“过去一年内，承运商在这条东西方主要航线上增加了130万个20英尺标准集装箱的运力。”
[Congestion black hole
Unlike in 2020, extra tonnage in 2021 was drawn into the trans-Pacific. The capacity increase, however, was needed to compensate for the huge efficiency loss as many ships faced long waiting times at anchorages, rather than to cope with a corresponding surge in cargo demand.
Dominique von Orelli, Global Head, Ocean Freight, DHL Global Forwarding, said: “Carriers are making logical decisions based on the charter costs they must pay, and the likely returns they can make when deploying those vessels. That equation points to the highly lucrative trans-Pacific trade, despite the port congestion many encounter there.”
This is highlighted by the container traffic situation at Los Angeles (10.70m TEU) and Long Beach (9.38m TEU), which increased by a more modest 13 percent and 15.7 percent, respectively, last year.
“It is important to note that this is not just about big container lines moving capacity, this is also much smaller operators and feeder companies that are re-diverting ships, and also big shippers which have been chartering their own vessels,” added von Orelli.
While port congestions will continue well into 2022, container production is on track to overtake demand growth. Equipment availability, however, will only see more apparent improvements from 2023.] => 堵塞黑洞
与2020年，2021年的新增货量被吸引到跨太平洋航线上。然而，需要增加运力才能补偿巨大的效率损失，而不是应对货物需求的相应激增，因为很多货船需要在锚地等待很长时间。
敦豪全球货运海运部全球主管Dominique von Orelli说道：“承运商根据自己必须支付的包船费用以及部署货船可能带来的收益做出合理的决定。尽管很多承运商经历了港口堵塞，但他们仍然选择了有高额利润的跨太平洋贸易。”
洛杉矶（1070万个20英尺标准集装箱）和长滩（938万个20英尺标准集装箱）的集装箱运输情况同比分别增长了13％和15.7％，表明了这种趋势。
“必须注意的是，这不仅涉及进行运力转移的大型集装箱航运公司，还涉及到转移货船的规模小得多的运营商和支线航运公司，以及包租自己货船的大型发货人，”von Orelli补充道。
虽然港口堵塞会一直持续到2022，但集装箱生产已经步入正轨，可以赶超需求增长。然而，集装箱利用率要从2023年开始才会发生明显改善。
[The pandemic-driven shift of U.S. consumption from services to products, and the resulting surges in trans-Pacific ocean container demand and freight rates, are sucking ships out of Asia and driving up the region’s manufacturing and supply chain costs, according to DHL’s February Ocean Freight Market Update and the latest insight from leading analysts.
This increase in capacity has left holes both outside and within the region. At the start of 2022, 43.7 percent of the global fleet was operating on the Asia-Europe and trans-Pacific lanes, up from 38.1 percent a year earlier.
But the hardest hit has been trade within Asia itself. Some 331,200 Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit (TEU) slots have been removed from intra-Asian services last year, representing a capacity reduction of 10.8 percent, according to online shipping database Alphaliner. That has caused spot rates in some parts of Asia to more than double year-on-year, with no sign of them abating.
Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific, said: “After two years of logistics shocks, these increases in intra-Asia rates are not the biggest hurdle supply chain managers have had to cope with. But they are adding to overall supply chain and production costs. We are hoping for some easing of the situation in the second half of this year.”
The shift in capacity to trans-Pacific routes was evident early in the pandemic. As U.S. consumers splurged on lifestyle products during Covid-19 lockdowns, freight rates on the trans-Pacific rose sharply from Q2 2020. Drawn by the demand and profits to be made, carriers began to divert large numbers of ships to the region.
This has left some regions severely short as most additional capacity was sucked into East-West shipping lanes at the expense of regional and Africa trades.] => 根据2月敦豪《海洋运输市场最新消息》和顶尖分析师的最新观点，美国消费在疫情推动下从服务转向产品，以及由此带来的跨太平洋海运集装箱需求和运价的激增，吸引货船离开亚洲，而且推高该地区的制造和供应链成本。
运力增长在该地区之外和之内造成了一定的影响。2022年初，全球43.7％的船队都在亚洲到欧洲和跨太平洋航道上航行，与去年同期相比增长了38.1％。
然而，受影响最大的是亚洲内部贸易本身。网上航运数据库Alphaliner称，去年亚洲内部航运量减少了约331,200个20英尺标准集装箱（TEU），相当于运力下降了10.8％，导致亚洲部分地区即期运价同比上涨一倍以上，而且没有下降的迹象。
敦豪全球货运亚太区首席执行官Kelvin Leung说道：“经过两年物流震荡后，亚洲内部运价的上涨并非供应链管理者需要解决的最大障碍，但这种上涨提高了总体供应链和生产成本。我们希望今年下半年这种情况能够有所缓和。”
运力向跨太平洋航线转移在疫情爆发初期就已经很明显了。随着美国消费者在疫情封锁期间大肆购买生活方式产品，从2020年第二季度开始，跨太平洋航线的运价大幅上涨。在需求和利润的驱使下，承运商开始将大量货船转移到这个地区。
这导致部分地区运力严重不足，因为大部分新增运力都被吸引到东西方之间的航线，牺牲了地区性和非洲贸易。
[wysiwyg] => wysiwyg
[outbound_box] => outbound_box
[Ongoing container fleet growth is slow and will require more time to balance out capacity versus demand. The pandemic-driven shift of U.S. consumption from services to products, and the resulting surges in trans-Pacific ocean container demand and freight rates, are sucking ships out of Asia and driving up the region’s manufacturing and supply chain costs, according to DHL’s February Ocean Freight Market Update and the latest insight from leading analysts.
This increase in capacity has left holes both outside and within the region. At the start of 2022, 43.7 percent of the global fleet was operating on the Asia-Europe and trans-Pacific lanes, up from 38.1 percent a year earlier.
But the hardest hit has been trade within Asia itself. Some 331,200 Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit (TEU) slots have been removed from intra-Asian services last year, representing a capacity reduction of 10.8 percent, according to online shipping database Alphaliner. That has caused spot rates in some parts of Asia to more than double year-on-year, with no sign of them abating.
Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific, said: “After two years of logistics shocks, these increases in intra-Asia rates are not the biggest hurdle supply chain managers have had to cope with. But they are adding to overall supply chain and production costs. We are hoping for some easing of the situation in the second half of this year.”
The shift in capacity to trans-Pacific routes was evident early in the pandemic. As U.S. consumers splurged on lifestyle products during Covid-19 lockdowns, freight rates on the trans-Pacific rose sharply from Q2 2020. Drawn by the demand and profits to be made, carriers began to divert large numbers of ships to the region.
This has left some regions severely short as most additional capacity was sucked into East-West shipping lanes at the expense of regional and Africa trades.
RELATED ARTICLESPort congestions set the tone for a volatile 2022Ports will remain a bottleneck in the supply chain, with capacity and reliability only likely to stabilize later in this year or next.What does this mean for Asia?
The effect of intra-Asia capacity withdrawals has been an increase in freight rates and manufacturing costs in Asia. According to ocean and air freight rate benchmarking platform Xeneta, spot rates from the main Chinese ports to the main Japanese and South Korean ports in 2021 averaged USD 1,400 (€1,222) per Forty Equipment Unit (FEU), up from USD 640 (€560) in 2020. In the first half of January they rose above USD 1,800 (€1,571) per FEU.
“Though the increases are smaller than on some other major head haul trades, the higher spot prices can still have a considerable impact,” said Peter Sand, Chief Analyst , Xeneta. “Considering that many of the goods on these intra-Asian trades are intermediate goods moving between factories in the region, doubling spot freight rates can often add considerable costs to the manufacturing process, forcing manufacturers to reconsider their manufacturing and supply chains across the region.”
Leung said that while the company was hoping for some easing of the situation in the second half of this year, “DHL continues to secure capacity in sufficient scale to meet customer needs on all trades but booking early is paramount.”
RELATED ARTICLESRising export levels inspire cautious optimismDespite continuing risks, there are some positive signs for ocean shipping stakeholders.Capacity gains and losses
The East-West capacity upgrades also came at the expense of liner offerings to and from Africa, where the combined capacity of ships trading between Asia, Europe, America and Africa fell by 6.4 percent to 1.68m TEU at the start of 2022.
Capacity deployed on the trans-Atlantic, and to and from the Middle East/Indian subcontinent, was relatively stable over the period while Latin America-related services saw an increase in capacity.
However, the intra-European trade proved to be another victim of the capacity shifts. “Some 48,200 TEU slots disappeared from intra-European services (- 4.5 percent),” noted Alphaliner. That capacity appeared to be heading to the Pacific.
“The ongoing capacity reduction was illustrated last month as the 974 TEU SPICA J left Europe for China. The SPICA J previously operated for many years as a typical feeder vessel in North Europe but left Rotterdam without any cargo mid-December for a voyage to Asia. The ship is currently loading Chinese export cargo in Taicang.”
Ongoing shifts from East to West
Although Asia-Europe trade saw a capacity increase of 10.2 percent last year, this was largely due to the delivery of 16,000-24,000 TEU, which replaced the smaller 13,000 TEU units, according to Alphaliner.
The loss of capacity on regional trades such as intra-Asia was primarily a result of vessels being transferred to the trans-Pacific lane, which remains the most profitable for carriers even though port congestion on both sides of the Pacific is at record highs.
Alphaliner estimates that January spot freight rates including premiums on the Shanghai-California lane corresponded to revenue for vessel operators of USD 1.29 (€1.13) per nautical mile. On Asia-Europe trade, the figure was just USD 0.73 (€0.64) , up from USD 0.42 (€0.37) at the start of 2021.
“At the start of this year, 22 percent of the total container fleet was deployed between Asia and North America, up from 17.5 percent on 1 January 2021,” notes the Update. “Carriers added 1.30m TEU of capacity to this major East-West route over the course of last year.”
RELATED ARTICLESDHL Ocean Freight Market Update Outlook 2022-2024Demand remains strong amidst limited capacity, with freight rates looking to stabilize much later in 2024.Congestion black hole
Unlike in 2020, extra tonnage in 2021 was drawn into the trans-Pacific. The capacity increase, however, was needed to compensate for the huge efficiency loss as many ships faced long waiting times at anchorages, rather than to cope with a corresponding surge in cargo demand.
Dominique von Orelli, Global Head, Ocean Freight, DHL Global Forwarding, said: “Carriers are making logical decisions based on the charter costs they must pay, and the likely returns they can make when deploying those vessels. That equation points to the highly lucrative trans-Pacific trade, despite the port congestion many encounter there.”
This is highlighted by the container traffic situation at Los Angeles (10.70m TEU) and Long Beach (9.38m TEU), which increased by a more modest 13 percent and 15.7 percent, respectively, last year.
“It is important to note that this is not just about big container lines moving capacity, this is also much smaller operators and feeder companies that are re-diverting ships, and also big shippers which have been chartering their own vessels,” added von Orelli.
While port congestions will continue well into 2022, container production is on track to overtake demand growth. Equipment availability, however, will only see more apparent improvements from 2023.] =>
[] =>
[intra-asian-lanes-affected-capacity-shift-us] => intra-asian-lanes-affected-capacity-shift-us
[Monthly ocean freight update] =>
[port-congestions-volatile-2022-key-image] => port-congestions-volatile-2022-key-image
[Port congestions set the tone for a volatile 2022] => Port congestions set the tone for a volatile 2022
[ocean-freight-Dec-2021-update-key-image] => ocean-freight-Dec-2021-update-key-image
[DHL Ocean Freight Market Update Dec 2021] => DHL Ocean Freight Market Update Dec 2021
[OFR-market-update-Jan-2022-key-image] => OFR-market-update-Jan-2022-key-image
[Ocean Freight Market Update 2022-2024] => Ocean Freight Market Update 2022-2024
[intra-asian-lanes-affected-single-column] => intra-asian-lanes-affected-single-column
[intra-asian-lanes-affected-key-image] => intra-asian-lanes-affected-key-image
)
[$value] =>
Capacity gains and losses
The East-West capacity upgrades also came at the expense of liner offerings to and from Africa, where the combined capacity of ships trading between Asia, Europe, America and Africa fell by 6.4 percent to 1.68m TEU at the start of 2022.
Capacity deployed on the trans-Atlantic, and to and from the Middle East/Indian subcontinent, was relatively stable over the period while Latin America-related services saw an increase in capacity.
However, the intra-European trade proved to be another victim of the capacity shifts. “Some 48,200 TEU slots disappeared from intra-European services (- 4.5 percent),” noted Alphaliner. That capacity appeared to be heading to the Pacific.
“The ongoing capacity reduction was illustrated last month as the 974 TEU SPICA J left Europe for China. The SPICA J previously operated for many years as a typical feeder vessel in North Europe but left Rotterdam without any cargo mid-December for a voyage to Asia. The ship is currently loading Chinese export cargo in Taicang.”
Ongoing shifts from East to West
Although Asia-Europe trade saw a capacity increase of 10.2 percent last year, this was largely due to the delivery of 16,000-24,000 TEU, which replaced the smaller 13,000 TEU units, according to Alphaliner.
The loss of capacity on regional trades such as intra-Asia was primarily a result of vessels being transferred to the trans-Pacific lane, which remains the most profitable for carriers even though port congestion on both sides of the Pacific is at record highs.
Alphaliner estimates that January spot freight rates including premiums on the Shanghai-California lane corresponded to revenue for vessel operators of USD 1.29 (€1.13) per nautical mile. On Asia-Europe trade, the figure was just USD 0.73 (€0.64) , up from USD 0.42 (€0.37) at the start of 2021.
“At the start of this year, 22 percent of the total container fleet was deployed between Asia and North America, up from 17.5 percent on 1 January 2021,” notes the Update. “Carriers added 1.30m TEU of capacity to this major East-West route over the course of last year.”
)
Array
(
[derick] => Array
(
[Intra-Asian lanes affected by ongoing capacity shift from Asia to U.S.] => Intra-Asian lanes affected by ongoing capacity shift from Asia to U.S.
[Ongoing container fleet growth is slow and will require more time to balance out capacity versus demand.] => 集装箱船队持续增长放缓，需要更多时间使运力与需求达到平衡。
[[]] =>
[What does this mean for Asia?
The effect of intra-Asia capacity withdrawals has been an increase in freight rates and manufacturing costs in Asia. According to ocean and air freight rate benchmarking platform Xeneta, spot rates from the main Chinese ports to the main Japanese and South Korean ports in 2021 averaged USD 1,400 (€1,222) per Forty Equipment Unit (FEU), up from USD 640 (€560) in 2020. In the first half of January they rose above USD 1,800 (€1,571) per FEU.
“Though the increases are smaller than on some other major head haul trades, the higher spot prices can still have a considerable impact,” said Peter Sand, Chief Analyst , Xeneta. “Considering that many of the goods on these intra-Asian trades are intermediate goods moving between factories in the region, doubling spot freight rates can often add considerable costs to the manufacturing process, forcing manufacturers to reconsider their manufacturing and supply chains across the region.”
Leung said that while the company was hoping for some easing of the situation in the second half of this year, “DHL continues to secure capacity in sufficient scale to meet customer needs on all trades but booking early is paramount.”] => 这对亚洲来说意味着什么？
亚洲内部运力向外转移造成的影响是亚洲运价和制造成本上涨。海洋和航空货运比价平台Xeneta称，2021年，从中国主要港口到日本和韩国主要港口的即期运价平均为每个40英尺集装箱（FEU）1,400美元（1,222欧元），而2020年只有640美元（560欧元）。1月前半个月，运价超过了每个40英尺集装箱1,800美元（1,571欧元）。
“尽管运价的上涨幅度小于其他部分主要去程贸易的上涨幅度，但即期运价上涨仍然会产生显著影响，”Xeneta公司首席分析师Peter Sand说道。“考虑到亚洲内部航线上的很多货物是该地区内工厂之间转移的中间产品，即期运价上涨一倍会显著增加制造过程的成本，迫使制造商重新布局该地区的制造业务和供应链。”
Leung称，虽然公司希望今年下半年这种情况能够有所缓解，“但敦豪仍将继续保障充足的运力，以满足所有航线上的客户需求，但最重要的是及早预订。”
[Capacity gains and losses
The East-West capacity upgrades also came at the expense of liner offerings to and from Africa, where the combined capacity of ships trading between Asia, Europe, America and Africa fell by 6.4 percent to 1.68m TEU at the start of 2022.
Capacity deployed on the trans-Atlantic, and to and from the Middle East/Indian subcontinent, was relatively stable over the period while Latin America-related services saw an increase in capacity.
However, the intra-European trade proved to be another victim of the capacity shifts. “Some 48,200 TEU slots disappeared from intra-European services (- 4.5 percent),” noted Alphaliner. That capacity appeared to be heading to the Pacific.
“The ongoing capacity reduction was illustrated last month as the 974 TEU SPICA J left Europe for China. The SPICA J previously operated for many years as a typical feeder vessel in North Europe but left Rotterdam without any cargo mid-December for a voyage to Asia. The ship is currently loading Chinese export cargo in Taicang.”
Ongoing shifts from East to West
Although Asia-Europe trade saw a capacity increase of 10.2 percent last year, this was largely due to the delivery of 16,000-24,000 TEU, which replaced the smaller 13,000 TEU units, according to Alphaliner.
The loss of capacity on regional trades such as intra-Asia was primarily a result of vessels being transferred to the trans-Pacific lane, which remains the most profitable for carriers even though port congestion on both sides of the Pacific is at record highs.
Alphaliner estimates that January spot freight rates including premiums on the Shanghai-California lane corresponded to revenue for vessel operators of USD 1.29 (€1.13) per nautical mile. On Asia-Europe trade, the figure was just USD 0.73 (€0.64) , up from USD 0.42 (€0.37) at the start of 2021.
“At the start of this year, 22 percent of the total container fleet was deployed between Asia and North America, up from 17.5 percent on 1 January 2021,” notes the Update. “Carriers added 1.30m TEU of capacity to this major East-West route over the course of last year.”] => 运力增减变化
东西方之间的运力升级是以往返非洲班轮的减少为代价的，其中2022年初，亚洲、欧洲、美洲与非洲之间货船的总运力下降了6.4％，为168万个20英尺标准集装箱。
在这个期间内，部署在跨大西洋以及往返中东地区／印度次大陆航线上的运力较为稳定，其中与南美洲有关的航线运力有所增加。
然而，欧洲内部贸易是运力转移的另一个受害者。“欧洲内部贸易航运量减少了约48,200个20英尺标准集装箱（-4.5％），”Alphaliner称。这部分运力似乎转移到太平洋了。
“上个月，装有974个20英尺标准集装箱的SPICA J号货船离开欧洲驶往中国，体现了运力的持续下降。SPICA J号货船之前很多年都是在北欧运营的一艘典型支线货船，但去年12月中旬没有装载货物就离开了鹿特丹前往亚洲。这艘货船目前在太仓港装载中国出口货物。”
从东方到西方的持续转移
Alphaliner称，虽然去年亚欧贸易运力增长了10.2％，但这主要归因于16,000-24,000个20英尺标准集装箱的交付，这些集装箱取代了13,000个较小的20英尺标准集装箱。
地区贸易（例如亚洲内部）的运力损失主要是货船转移到跨太平洋航线引起的。虽然太平洋两岸的港口堵塞现象达到了创纪录的高水平，但这条航线对于承运商而言仍是最有利可图的。
Alphaliner估计，今年1月，即期运价（包括上海到加利福尼亚航线的溢价）给货船运营商带来的收入相当于每海里1.29美元（1.13欧元）。在亚欧贸易中，这一数字仅为0.73美元（0.64欧元），而2021年初为0.42美元（0.37欧元）。
“今年年初，全部集装箱船队有22％部署在亚洲与北美洲之间，而2021年1月1日这个比例为17.5％，”《海洋运输市场最新消息》提到。“过去一年内，承运商在这条东西方主要航线上增加了130万个20英尺标准集装箱的运力。”
[Congestion black hole
Unlike in 2020, extra tonnage in 2021 was drawn into the trans-Pacific. The capacity increase, however, was needed to compensate for the huge efficiency loss as many ships faced long waiting times at anchorages, rather than to cope with a corresponding surge in cargo demand.
Dominique von Orelli, Global Head, Ocean Freight, DHL Global Forwarding, said: “Carriers are making logical decisions based on the charter costs they must pay, and the likely returns they can make when deploying those vessels. That equation points to the highly lucrative trans-Pacific trade, despite the port congestion many encounter there.”
This is highlighted by the container traffic situation at Los Angeles (10.70m TEU) and Long Beach (9.38m TEU), which increased by a more modest 13 percent and 15.7 percent, respectively, last year.
“It is important to note that this is not just about big container lines moving capacity, this is also much smaller operators and feeder companies that are re-diverting ships, and also big shippers which have been chartering their own vessels,” added von Orelli.
While port congestions will continue well into 2022, container production is on track to overtake demand growth. Equipment availability, however, will only see more apparent improvements from 2023.] => 堵塞黑洞
与2020年，2021年的新增货量被吸引到跨太平洋航线上。然而，需要增加运力才能补偿巨大的效率损失，而不是应对货物需求的相应激增，因为很多货船需要在锚地等待很长时间。
敦豪全球货运海运部全球主管Dominique von Orelli说道：“承运商根据自己必须支付的包船费用以及部署货船可能带来的收益做出合理的决定。尽管很多承运商经历了港口堵塞，但他们仍然选择了有高额利润的跨太平洋贸易。”
洛杉矶（1070万个20英尺标准集装箱）和长滩（938万个20英尺标准集装箱）的集装箱运输情况同比分别增长了13％和15.7％，表明了这种趋势。
“必须注意的是，这不仅涉及进行运力转移的大型集装箱航运公司，还涉及到转移货船的规模小得多的运营商和支线航运公司，以及包租自己货船的大型发货人，”von Orelli补充道。
虽然港口堵塞会一直持续到2022，但集装箱生产已经步入正轨，可以赶超需求增长。然而，集装箱利用率要从2023年开始才会发生明显改善。
[The pandemic-driven shift of U.S. consumption from services to products, and the resulting surges in trans-Pacific ocean container demand and freight rates, are sucking ships out of Asia and driving up the region’s manufacturing and supply chain costs, according to DHL’s February Ocean Freight Market Update and the latest insight from leading analysts.
This increase in capacity has left holes both outside and within the region. At the start of 2022, 43.7 percent of the global fleet was operating on the Asia-Europe and trans-Pacific lanes, up from 38.1 percent a year earlier.
But the hardest hit has been trade within Asia itself. Some 331,200 Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit (TEU) slots have been removed from intra-Asian services last year, representing a capacity reduction of 10.8 percent, according to online shipping database Alphaliner. That has caused spot rates in some parts of Asia to more than double year-on-year, with no sign of them abating.
Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific, said: “After two years of logistics shocks, these increases in intra-Asia rates are not the biggest hurdle supply chain managers have had to cope with. But they are adding to overall supply chain and production costs. We are hoping for some easing of the situation in the second half of this year.”
The shift in capacity to trans-Pacific routes was evident early in the pandemic. As U.S. consumers splurged on lifestyle products during Covid-19 lockdowns, freight rates on the trans-Pacific rose sharply from Q2 2020. Drawn by the demand and profits to be made, carriers began to divert large numbers of ships to the region.
This has left some regions severely short as most additional capacity was sucked into East-West shipping lanes at the expense of regional and Africa trades.] => 根据2月敦豪《海洋运输市场最新消息》和顶尖分析师的最新观点，美国消费在疫情推动下从服务转向产品，以及由此带来的跨太平洋海运集装箱需求和运价的激增，吸引货船离开亚洲，而且推高该地区的制造和供应链成本。
运力增长在该地区之外和之内造成了一定的影响。2022年初，全球43.7％的船队都在亚洲到欧洲和跨太平洋航道上航行，与去年同期相比增长了38.1％。
然而，受影响最大的是亚洲内部贸易本身。网上航运数据库Alphaliner称，去年亚洲内部航运量减少了约331,200个20英尺标准集装箱（TEU），相当于运力下降了10.8％，导致亚洲部分地区即期运价同比上涨一倍以上，而且没有下降的迹象。
敦豪全球货运亚太区首席执行官Kelvin Leung说道：“经过两年物流震荡后，亚洲内部运价的上涨并非供应链管理者需要解决的最大障碍，但这种上涨提高了总体供应链和生产成本。我们希望今年下半年这种情况能够有所缓和。”
运力向跨太平洋航线转移在疫情爆发初期就已经很明显了。随着美国消费者在疫情封锁期间大肆购买生活方式产品，从2020年第二季度开始，跨太平洋航线的运价大幅上涨。在需求和利润的驱使下，承运商开始将大量货船转移到这个地区。
这导致部分地区运力严重不足，因为大部分新增运力都被吸引到东西方之间的航线，牺牲了地区性和非洲贸易。
[wysiwyg] => wysiwyg
[outbound_box] => outbound_box
[Ongoing container fleet growth is slow and will require more time to balance out capacity versus demand. The pandemic-driven shift of U.S. consumption from services to products, and the resulting surges in trans-Pacific ocean container demand and freight rates, are sucking ships out of Asia and driving up the region’s manufacturing and supply chain costs, according to DHL’s February Ocean Freight Market Update and the latest insight from leading analysts.
This increase in capacity has left holes both outside and within the region. At the start of 2022, 43.7 percent of the global fleet was operating on the Asia-Europe and trans-Pacific lanes, up from 38.1 percent a year earlier.
But the hardest hit has been trade within Asia itself. Some 331,200 Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit (TEU) slots have been removed from intra-Asian services last year, representing a capacity reduction of 10.8 percent, according to online shipping database Alphaliner. That has caused spot rates in some parts of Asia to more than double year-on-year, with no sign of them abating.
Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific, said: “After two years of logistics shocks, these increases in intra-Asia rates are not the biggest hurdle supply chain managers have had to cope with. But they are adding to overall supply chain and production costs. We are hoping for some easing of the situation in the second half of this year.”
The shift in capacity to trans-Pacific routes was evident early in the pandemic. As U.S. consumers splurged on lifestyle products during Covid-19 lockdowns, freight rates on the trans-Pacific rose sharply from Q2 2020. Drawn by the demand and profits to be made, carriers began to divert large numbers of ships to the region.
This has left some regions severely short as most additional capacity was sucked into East-West shipping lanes at the expense of regional and Africa trades.
RELATED ARTICLESPort congestions set the tone for a volatile 2022Ports will remain a bottleneck in the supply chain, with capacity and reliability only likely to stabilize later in this year or next.What does this mean for Asia?
The effect of intra-Asia capacity withdrawals has been an increase in freight rates and manufacturing costs in Asia. According to ocean and air freight rate benchmarking platform Xeneta, spot rates from the main Chinese ports to the main Japanese and South Korean ports in 2021 averaged USD 1,400 (€1,222) per Forty Equipment Unit (FEU), up from USD 640 (€560) in 2020. In the first half of January they rose above USD 1,800 (€1,571) per FEU.
“Though the increases are smaller than on some other major head haul trades, the higher spot prices can still have a considerable impact,” said Peter Sand, Chief Analyst , Xeneta. “Considering that many of the goods on these intra-Asian trades are intermediate goods moving between factories in the region, doubling spot freight rates can often add considerable costs to the manufacturing process, forcing manufacturers to reconsider their manufacturing and supply chains across the region.”
Leung said that while the company was hoping for some easing of the situation in the second half of this year, “DHL continues to secure capacity in sufficient scale to meet customer needs on all trades but booking early is paramount.”
RELATED ARTICLESRising export levels inspire cautious optimismDespite continuing risks, there are some positive signs for ocean shipping stakeholders.Capacity gains and losses
The East-West capacity upgrades also came at the expense of liner offerings to and from Africa, where the combined capacity of ships trading between Asia, Europe, America and Africa fell by 6.4 percent to 1.68m TEU at the start of 2022.
Capacity deployed on the trans-Atlantic, and to and from the Middle East/Indian subcontinent, was relatively stable over the period while Latin America-related services saw an increase in capacity.
However, the intra-European trade proved to be another victim of the capacity shifts. “Some 48,200 TEU slots disappeared from intra-European services (- 4.5 percent),” noted Alphaliner. That capacity appeared to be heading to the Pacific.
“The ongoing capacity reduction was illustrated last month as the 974 TEU SPICA J left Europe for China. The SPICA J previously operated for many years as a typical feeder vessel in North Europe but left Rotterdam without any cargo mid-December for a voyage to Asia. The ship is currently loading Chinese export cargo in Taicang.”
Ongoing shifts from East to West
Although Asia-Europe trade saw a capacity increase of 10.2 percent last year, this was largely due to the delivery of 16,000-24,000 TEU, which replaced the smaller 13,000 TEU units, according to Alphaliner.
The loss of capacity on regional trades such as intra-Asia was primarily a result of vessels being transferred to the trans-Pacific lane, which remains the most profitable for carriers even though port congestion on both sides of the Pacific is at record highs.
Alphaliner estimates that January spot freight rates including premiums on the Shanghai-California lane corresponded to revenue for vessel operators of USD 1.29 (€1.13) per nautical mile. On Asia-Europe trade, the figure was just USD 0.73 (€0.64) , up from USD 0.42 (€0.37) at the start of 2021.
“At the start of this year, 22 percent of the total container fleet was deployed between Asia and North America, up from 17.5 percent on 1 January 2021,” notes the Update. “Carriers added 1.30m TEU of capacity to this major East-West route over the course of last year.”
RELATED ARTICLESDHL Ocean Freight Market Update Outlook 2022-2024Demand remains strong amidst limited capacity, with freight rates looking to stabilize much later in 2024.Congestion black hole
Unlike in 2020, extra tonnage in 2021 was drawn into the trans-Pacific. The capacity increase, however, was needed to compensate for the huge efficiency loss as many ships faced long waiting times at anchorages, rather than to cope with a corresponding surge in cargo demand.
Dominique von Orelli, Global Head, Ocean Freight, DHL Global Forwarding, said: “Carriers are making logical decisions based on the charter costs they must pay, and the likely returns they can make when deploying those vessels. That equation points to the highly lucrative trans-Pacific trade, despite the port congestion many encounter there.”
This is highlighted by the container traffic situation at Los Angeles (10.70m TEU) and Long Beach (9.38m TEU), which increased by a more modest 13 percent and 15.7 percent, respectively, last year.
“It is important to note that this is not just about big container lines moving capacity, this is also much smaller operators and feeder companies that are re-diverting ships, and also big shippers which have been chartering their own vessels,” added von Orelli.
While port congestions will continue well into 2022, container production is on track to overtake demand growth. Equipment availability, however, will only see more apparent improvements from 2023.] =>
[] =>
[intra-asian-lanes-affected-capacity-shift-us] => intra-asian-lanes-affected-capacity-shift-us
[Monthly ocean freight update] =>
[port-congestions-volatile-2022-key-image] => port-congestions-volatile-2022-key-image
[Port congestions set the tone for a volatile 2022] => Port congestions set the tone for a volatile 2022
[ocean-freight-Dec-2021-update-key-image] => ocean-freight-Dec-2021-update-key-image
[DHL Ocean Freight Market Update Dec 2021] => DHL Ocean Freight Market Update Dec 2021
[OFR-market-update-Jan-2022-key-image] => OFR-market-update-Jan-2022-key-image
[Ocean Freight Market Update 2022-2024] => Ocean Freight Market Update 2022-2024
[intra-asian-lanes-affected-single-column] => intra-asian-lanes-affected-single-column
[intra-asian-lanes-affected-key-image] => intra-asian-lanes-affected-key-image
)
[$value] =>
Congestion black hole
Unlike in 2020, extra tonnage in 2021 was drawn into the trans-Pacific. The capacity increase, however, was needed to compensate for the huge efficiency loss as many ships faced long waiting times at anchorages, rather than to cope with a corresponding surge in cargo demand.
Dominique von Orelli, Global Head, Ocean Freight, DHL Global Forwarding, said: “Carriers are making logical decisions based on the charter costs they must pay, and the likely returns they can make when deploying those vessels. That equation points to the highly lucrative trans-Pacific trade, despite the port congestion many encounter there.”
This is highlighted by the container traffic situation at Los Angeles (10.70m TEU) and Long Beach (9.38m TEU), which increased by a more modest 13 percent and 15.7 percent, respectively, last year.
“It is important to note that this is not just about big container lines moving capacity, this is also much smaller operators and feeder companies that are re-diverting ships, and also big shippers which have been chartering their own vessels,” added von Orelli.
While port congestions will continue well into 2022, container production is on track to overtake demand growth. Equipment availability, however, will only see more apparent improvements from 2023.
)
Vietnam rises as a manufacturing star According to DHL’s Global Connectedness Index 2020, Vietnam ranked 38th out of 169 countries, one place higher than in 2017.
Array
(
[Intra-Asian lanes affected by ongoing capacity shift from Asia to U.S.] => Intra-Asian lanes affected by ongoing capacity shift from Asia to U.S.
[Ongoing container fleet growth is slow and will require more time to balance out capacity versus demand.] => 集装箱船队持续增长放缓，需要更多时间使运力与需求达到平衡。
[[]] =>
[What does this mean for Asia?
The effect of intra-Asia capacity withdrawals has been an increase in freight rates and manufacturing costs in Asia. According to ocean and air freight rate benchmarking platform Xeneta, spot rates from the main Chinese ports to the main Japanese and South Korean ports in 2021 averaged USD 1,400 (€1,222) per Forty Equipment Unit (FEU), up from USD 640 (€560) in 2020. In the first half of January they rose above USD 1,800 (€1,571) per FEU.
“Though the increases are smaller than on some other major head haul trades, the higher spot prices can still have a considerable impact,” said Peter Sand, Chief Analyst , Xeneta. “Considering that many of the goods on these intra-Asian trades are intermediate goods moving between factories in the region, doubling spot freight rates can often add considerable costs to the manufacturing process, forcing manufacturers to reconsider their manufacturing and supply chains across the region.”
Leung said that while the company was hoping for some easing of the situation in the second half of this year, “DHL continues to secure capacity in sufficient scale to meet customer needs on all trades but booking early is paramount.”] => 这对亚洲来说意味着什么？
亚洲内部运力向外转移造成的影响是亚洲运价和制造成本上涨。海洋和航空货运比价平台Xeneta称，2021年，从中国主要港口到日本和韩国主要港口的即期运价平均为每个40英尺集装箱（FEU）1,400美元（1,222欧元），而2020年只有640美元（560欧元）。1月前半个月，运价超过了每个40英尺集装箱1,800美元（1,571欧元）。
“尽管运价的上涨幅度小于其他部分主要去程贸易的上涨幅度，但即期运价上涨仍然会产生显著影响，”Xeneta公司首席分析师Peter Sand说道。“考虑到亚洲内部航线上的很多货物是该地区内工厂之间转移的中间产品，即期运价上涨一倍会显著增加制造过程的成本，迫使制造商重新布局该地区的制造业务和供应链。”
Leung称，虽然公司希望今年下半年这种情况能够有所缓解，“但敦豪仍将继续保障充足的运力，以满足所有航线上的客户需求，但最重要的是及早预订。”
[Capacity gains and losses
The East-West capacity upgrades also came at the expense of liner offerings to and from Africa, where the combined capacity of ships trading between Asia, Europe, America and Africa fell by 6.4 percent to 1.68m TEU at the start of 2022.
Capacity deployed on the trans-Atlantic, and to and from the Middle East/Indian subcontinent, was relatively stable over the period while Latin America-related services saw an increase in capacity.
However, the intra-European trade proved to be another victim of the capacity shifts. “Some 48,200 TEU slots disappeared from intra-European services (- 4.5 percent),” noted Alphaliner. That capacity appeared to be heading to the Pacific.
“The ongoing capacity reduction was illustrated last month as the 974 TEU SPICA J left Europe for China. The SPICA J previously operated for many years as a typical feeder vessel in North Europe but left Rotterdam without any cargo mid-December for a voyage to Asia. The ship is currently loading Chinese export cargo in Taicang.”
Ongoing shifts from East to West
Although Asia-Europe trade saw a capacity increase of 10.2 percent last year, this was largely due to the delivery of 16,000-24,000 TEU, which replaced the smaller 13,000 TEU units, according to Alphaliner.
The loss of capacity on regional trades such as intra-Asia was primarily a result of vessels being transferred to the trans-Pacific lane, which remains the most profitable for carriers even though port congestion on both sides of the Pacific is at record highs.
Alphaliner estimates that January spot freight rates including premiums on the Shanghai-California lane corresponded to revenue for vessel operators of USD 1.29 (€1.13) per nautical mile. On Asia-Europe trade, the figure was just USD 0.73 (€0.64) , up from USD 0.42 (€0.37) at the start of 2021.
“At the start of this year, 22 percent of the total container fleet was deployed between Asia and North America, up from 17.5 percent on 1 January 2021,” notes the Update. “Carriers added 1.30m TEU of capacity to this major East-West route over the course of last year.”] => 运力增减变化
东西方之间的运力升级是以往返非洲班轮的减少为代价的，其中2022年初，亚洲、欧洲、美洲与非洲之间货船的总运力下降了6.4％，为168万个20英尺标准集装箱。
在这个期间内，部署在跨大西洋以及往返中东地区／印度次大陆航线上的运力较为稳定，其中与南美洲有关的航线运力有所增加。
然而，欧洲内部贸易是运力转移的另一个受害者。“欧洲内部贸易航运量减少了约48,200个20英尺标准集装箱（-4.5％），”Alphaliner称。这部分运力似乎转移到太平洋了。
“上个月，装有974个20英尺标准集装箱的SPICA J号货船离开欧洲驶往中国，体现了运力的持续下降。SPICA J号货船之前很多年都是在北欧运营的一艘典型支线货船，但去年12月中旬没有装载货物就离开了鹿特丹前往亚洲。这艘货船目前在太仓港装载中国出口货物。”
从东方到西方的持续转移
Alphaliner称，虽然去年亚欧贸易运力增长了10.2％，但这主要归因于16,000-24,000个20英尺标准集装箱的交付，这些集装箱取代了13,000个较小的20英尺标准集装箱。
地区贸易（例如亚洲内部）的运力损失主要是货船转移到跨太平洋航线引起的。虽然太平洋两岸的港口堵塞现象达到了创纪录的高水平，但这条航线对于承运商而言仍是最有利可图的。
Alphaliner估计，今年1月，即期运价（包括上海到加利福尼亚航线的溢价）给货船运营商带来的收入相当于每海里1.29美元（1.13欧元）。在亚欧贸易中，这一数字仅为0.73美元（0.64欧元），而2021年初为0.42美元（0.37欧元）。
“今年年初，全部集装箱船队有22％部署在亚洲与北美洲之间，而2021年1月1日这个比例为17.5％，”《海洋运输市场最新消息》提到。“过去一年内，承运商在这条东西方主要航线上增加了130万个20英尺标准集装箱的运力。”
[Congestion black hole
Unlike in 2020, extra tonnage in 2021 was drawn into the trans-Pacific. The capacity increase, however, was needed to compensate for the huge efficiency loss as many ships faced long waiting times at anchorages, rather than to cope with a corresponding surge in cargo demand.
Dominique von Orelli, Global Head, Ocean Freight, DHL Global Forwarding, said: “Carriers are making logical decisions based on the charter costs they must pay, and the likely returns they can make when deploying those vessels. That equation points to the highly lucrative trans-Pacific trade, despite the port congestion many encounter there.”
This is highlighted by the container traffic situation at Los Angeles (10.70m TEU) and Long Beach (9.38m TEU), which increased by a more modest 13 percent and 15.7 percent, respectively, last year.
“It is important to note that this is not just about big container lines moving capacity, this is also much smaller operators and feeder companies that are re-diverting ships, and also big shippers which have been chartering their own vessels,” added von Orelli.
While port congestions will continue well into 2022, container production is on track to overtake demand growth. Equipment availability, however, will only see more apparent improvements from 2023.] => 堵塞黑洞
与2020年，2021年的新增货量被吸引到跨太平洋航线上。然而，需要增加运力才能补偿巨大的效率损失，而不是应对货物需求的相应激增，因为很多货船需要在锚地等待很长时间。
敦豪全球货运海运部全球主管Dominique von Orelli说道：“承运商根据自己必须支付的包船费用以及部署货船可能带来的收益做出合理的决定。尽管很多承运商经历了港口堵塞，但他们仍然选择了有高额利润的跨太平洋贸易。”
洛杉矶（1070万个20英尺标准集装箱）和长滩（938万个20英尺标准集装箱）的集装箱运输情况同比分别增长了13％和15.7％，表明了这种趋势。
“必须注意的是，这不仅涉及进行运力转移的大型集装箱航运公司，还涉及到转移货船的规模小得多的运营商和支线航运公司，以及包租自己货船的大型发货人，”von Orelli补充道。
虽然港口堵塞会一直持续到2022，但集装箱生产已经步入正轨，可以赶超需求增长。然而，集装箱利用率要从2023年开始才会发生明显改善。
[The pandemic-driven shift of U.S. consumption from services to products, and the resulting surges in trans-Pacific ocean container demand and freight rates, are sucking ships out of Asia and driving up the region’s manufacturing and supply chain costs, according to DHL’s February Ocean Freight Market Update and the latest insight from leading analysts.
This increase in capacity has left holes both outside and within the region. At the start of 2022, 43.7 percent of the global fleet was operating on the Asia-Europe and trans-Pacific lanes, up from 38.1 percent a year earlier.
But the hardest hit has been trade within Asia itself. Some 331,200 Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit (TEU) slots have been removed from intra-Asian services last year, representing a capacity reduction of 10.8 percent, according to online shipping database Alphaliner. That has caused spot rates in some parts of Asia to more than double year-on-year, with no sign of them abating.
Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific, said: “After two years of logistics shocks, these increases in intra-Asia rates are not the biggest hurdle supply chain managers have had to cope with. But they are adding to overall supply chain and production costs. We are hoping for some easing of the situation in the second half of this year.”
The shift in capacity to trans-Pacific routes was evident early in the pandemic. As U.S. consumers splurged on lifestyle products during Covid-19 lockdowns, freight rates on the trans-Pacific rose sharply from Q2 2020. Drawn by the demand and profits to be made, carriers began to divert large numbers of ships to the region.
This has left some regions severely short as most additional capacity was sucked into East-West shipping lanes at the expense of regional and Africa trades.] => 根据2月敦豪《海洋运输市场最新消息》和顶尖分析师的最新观点，美国消费在疫情推动下从服务转向产品，以及由此带来的跨太平洋海运集装箱需求和运价的激增，吸引货船离开亚洲，而且推高该地区的制造和供应链成本。
运力增长在该地区之外和之内造成了一定的影响。2022年初，全球43.7％的船队都在亚洲到欧洲和跨太平洋航道上航行，与去年同期相比增长了38.1％。
然而，受影响最大的是亚洲内部贸易本身。网上航运数据库Alphaliner称，去年亚洲内部航运量减少了约331,200个20英尺标准集装箱（TEU），相当于运力下降了10.8％，导致亚洲部分地区即期运价同比上涨一倍以上，而且没有下降的迹象。
敦豪全球货运亚太区首席执行官Kelvin Leung说道：“经过两年物流震荡后，亚洲内部运价的上涨并非供应链管理者需要解决的最大障碍，但这种上涨提高了总体供应链和生产成本。我们希望今年下半年这种情况能够有所缓和。”
运力向跨太平洋航线转移在疫情爆发初期就已经很明显了。随着美国消费者在疫情封锁期间大肆购买生活方式产品，从2020年第二季度开始，跨太平洋航线的运价大幅上涨。在需求和利润的驱使下，承运商开始将大量货船转移到这个地区。
这导致部分地区运力严重不足，因为大部分新增运力都被吸引到东西方之间的航线，牺牲了地区性和非洲贸易。
[wysiwyg] => wysiwyg
[outbound_box] => outbound_box
[Ongoing container fleet growth is slow and will require more time to balance out capacity versus demand. The pandemic-driven shift of U.S. consumption from services to products, and the resulting surges in trans-Pacific ocean container demand and freight rates, are sucking ships out of Asia and driving up the region’s manufacturing and supply chain costs, according to DHL’s February Ocean Freight Market Update and the latest insight from leading analysts.
This increase in capacity has left holes both outside and within the region. At the start of 2022, 43.7 percent of the global fleet was operating on the Asia-Europe and trans-Pacific lanes, up from 38.1 percent a year earlier.
But the hardest hit has been trade within Asia itself. Some 331,200 Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit (TEU) slots have been removed from intra-Asian services last year, representing a capacity reduction of 10.8 percent, according to online shipping database Alphaliner. That has caused spot rates in some parts of Asia to more than double year-on-year, with no sign of them abating.
Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific, said: “After two years of logistics shocks, these increases in intra-Asia rates are not the biggest hurdle supply chain managers have had to cope with. But they are adding to overall supply chain and production costs. We are hoping for some easing of the situation in the second half of this year.”
The shift in capacity to trans-Pacific routes was evident early in the pandemic. As U.S. consumers splurged on lifestyle products during Covid-19 lockdowns, freight rates on the trans-Pacific rose sharply from Q2 2020. Drawn by the demand and profits to be made, carriers began to divert large numbers of ships to the region.
This has left some regions severely short as most additional capacity was sucked into East-West shipping lanes at the expense of regional and Africa trades.
RELATED ARTICLESPort congestions set the tone for a volatile 2022Ports will remain a bottleneck in the supply chain, with capacity and reliability only likely to stabilize later in this year or next.What does this mean for Asia?
The effect of intra-Asia capacity withdrawals has been an increase in freight rates and manufacturing costs in Asia. According to ocean and air freight rate benchmarking platform Xeneta, spot rates from the main Chinese ports to the main Japanese and South Korean ports in 2021 averaged USD 1,400 (€1,222) per Forty Equipment Unit (FEU), up from USD 640 (€560) in 2020. In the first half of January they rose above USD 1,800 (€1,571) per FEU.
“Though the increases are smaller than on some other major head haul trades, the higher spot prices can still have a considerable impact,” said Peter Sand, Chief Analyst , Xeneta. “Considering that many of the goods on these intra-Asian trades are intermediate goods moving between factories in the region, doubling spot freight rates can often add considerable costs to the manufacturing process, forcing manufacturers to reconsider their manufacturing and supply chains across the region.”
Leung said that while the company was hoping for some easing of the situation in the second half of this year, “DHL continues to secure capacity in sufficient scale to meet customer needs on all trades but booking early is paramount.”
RELATED ARTICLESRising export levels inspire cautious optimismDespite continuing risks, there are some positive signs for ocean shipping stakeholders.Capacity gains and losses
The East-West capacity upgrades also came at the expense of liner offerings to and from Africa, where the combined capacity of ships trading between Asia, Europe, America and Africa fell by 6.4 percent to 1.68m TEU at the start of 2022.
Capacity deployed on the trans-Atlantic, and to and from the Middle East/Indian subcontinent, was relatively stable over the period while Latin America-related services saw an increase in capacity.
However, the intra-European trade proved to be another victim of the capacity shifts. “Some 48,200 TEU slots disappeared from intra-European services (- 4.5 percent),” noted Alphaliner. That capacity appeared to be heading to the Pacific.
“The ongoing capacity reduction was illustrated last month as the 974 TEU SPICA J left Europe for China. The SPICA J previously operated for many years as a typical feeder vessel in North Europe but left Rotterdam without any cargo mid-December for a voyage to Asia. The ship is currently loading Chinese export cargo in Taicang.”
Ongoing shifts from East to West
Although Asia-Europe trade saw a capacity increase of 10.2 percent last year, this was largely due to the delivery of 16,000-24,000 TEU, which replaced the smaller 13,000 TEU units, according to Alphaliner.
The loss of capacity on regional trades such as intra-Asia was primarily a result of vessels being transferred to the trans-Pacific lane, which remains the most profitable for carriers even though port congestion on both sides of the Pacific is at record highs.
Alphaliner estimates that January spot freight rates including premiums on the Shanghai-California lane corresponded to revenue for vessel operators of USD 1.29 (€1.13) per nautical mile. On Asia-Europe trade, the figure was just USD 0.73 (€0.64) , up from USD 0.42 (€0.37) at the start of 2021.
“At the start of this year, 22 percent of the total container fleet was deployed between Asia and North America, up from 17.5 percent on 1 January 2021,” notes the Update. “Carriers added 1.30m TEU of capacity to this major East-West route over the course of last year.”
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Unlike in 2020, extra tonnage in 2021 was drawn into the trans-Pacific. The capacity increase, however, was needed to compensate for the huge efficiency loss as many ships faced long waiting times at anchorages, rather than to cope with a corresponding surge in cargo demand.
Dominique von Orelli, Global Head, Ocean Freight, DHL Global Forwarding, said: “Carriers are making logical decisions based on the charter costs they must pay, and the likely returns they can make when deploying those vessels. That equation points to the highly lucrative trans-Pacific trade, despite the port congestion many encounter there.”
This is highlighted by the container traffic situation at Los Angeles (10.70m TEU) and Long Beach (9.38m TEU), which increased by a more modest 13 percent and 15.7 percent, respectively, last year.
“It is important to note that this is not just about big container lines moving capacity, this is also much smaller operators and feeder companies that are re-diverting ships, and also big shippers which have been chartering their own vessels,” added von Orelli.
While port congestions will continue well into 2022, container production is on track to overtake demand growth. Equipment availability, however, will only see more apparent improvements from 2023.] =>
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