Your default browser language is set to . Browse this site in another language: Continue color Created with Sketch.

Reports and Whitepaper

Read logistics-related industry reports, & sector-specific important-export guides here.

View all resources
  • Newsletter subscription (View Sample)
  • Get a sales representative to contact me
  • I agree to the  Terms and Privacy Notice
ALSO WORTH READING

Navigating complexities in 2025 ocean freight

Relief at U.S. ports, but global disruptions peep elevated rates.
Relief at U.S. ports, but global disruptions peep elevated rates.
17 January 2025 •

“What a difference a day makes” sang Dinah Washington. Well, in January, anyone in the supply chain business was singing from the same song sheet.

Just as container supply chains were bracing for dockworker strikes at U.S. East and Gulf Coast ports from 15 January, the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) reached a tentative agreement on a new six-year Master Contract on 9 January.

This averted a second strike at ports from Maine to Texas following the three-day strike at the start of October which resulted in significant supply chain disruption. The two parties subsequently agreed on a pay deal.

While the specific terms of the agreement remain confidential pending ratification by both ILA rank-and-file members and USMX stakeholders, the two sides said the new contract establishes a framework for implementing technologies while safeguarding existing ILA positions.

Transpacific rates to subside?

Average spot rates from the Far East to U.S. East Coast had increased 26 percent since 14 December as shippers rushed to bring in cargo ahead of the anticipated port lockdowns, according to Xeneta. Some analysts expect spot freight rates to plateau or fall on lanes into the U.S. as the disruption has been avoided.

“It is heartening for all ocean supply chain stakeholders that this potential strike has been staved off because a lot of cargo would have been stranded on ships and at ports if it had proceeded,” said Niki Frank, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.

Commenting on the ocean freight market out of Asia in late December and in the early weeks of 2025, Frank added: “We have seen brisk demand before the Lunar New Year holidays at the end of January. Apart from the anticipated lockdown at U.S. ports, some shippers are also anxious about possible new tariff regimes and have been eager to move goods early this year. Any lowering of supply chain risk is helpful for all concerned.”

Alliance changes 

The start of February will also see a rejig of the container shipping alliance system, such as the end of the 2M alliance between Maersk and MSC. MSC will go at it alone, while Maersk will join with Hapag-Lloyd in the Gemini Cooperation.

“The transition to new shipping alliances introduces another layer of complexity, at least during the adjustment period,” noted Praveen Gregory, Senior Vice President, Ocean Freight, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.  “Gemini's new hub-and-spoke model aims for 90 percent reliability by mid-2025, which will be a fantastic option for shippers if achieved.”

Gregory also said DHL was monitoring other possible supply chain risks in 2025, with emphasis shifting from pure cost optimization to building sustainable, resilient supply chains that can weather disruptions while maintaining operational efficiency.

While weather-related events, increasingly unpredictable due to climate change, add further uncertainty to scheduling and operations, evolving regulatory requirements are also driving up operational costs.

“President Trump has yet to make an announcement on the exact tariffs that will be implemented, so it is difficult to predict and prepare for it, but we know that they are coming, and we are working with our customers to diversify and mitigate risks where possible,” said Gregory. “In response to these challenges, we are helping forward-thinking customers to adopt comprehensive risk management strategies, including developing robust scenario planning capabilities, building buffer inventories, and establishing alternative routing options.” 

Predictions for 2025

DHL’s Ocean Freight Market Outlook 2025 predicted that freight rates are unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels, reflecting this new operational reality. This is due in part to supply chain disruptions, specifically, the diversion around southern Africa due to Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, which continue to offset underlying excess capacity.

“With the strike averted, it eliminates a lot of short-term fears. But we are unlikely to get to a situation with excess capacity yet, because at the moment, demand and supply are pretty balanced, and capacity is fully utilized,” shared Gregory.

The report also noted that some 2m TEU of capacity was tied up in port congestion delays during 2024. The Red Sea crisis is lasting longer than expected, further squeezing capacity, while port and hinterland infrastructure remain major bottlenecks.

With some 6.5m TEU of capacity due to be delivered by 2027, ongoing disruptions will remain the main barrier to significantly softer freight rates. 

On demand, potential U.S. policy shifts create mid-term uncertainty, that will probably impact China, Mexico, and Canada due to higher tariffs.

“Success in this environment will require accepting higher baseline costs in exchange for greater reliability and resilience. Organizations that continue to build in flexibility and sustainability will be best positioned to thrive in the evolving maritime landscape,” concluded Frank. 


RELATED TOPICS
RELATED TOPICS