Global Trade Barometer
Global Index
In-depth Report

Global trade expected to moderately contract over next three months

>50 = Expansion 50 = Stable <50 = Contraction
GTB forecasts a slight decline of world trade, dropping mildly by -2 points to 45.
Six out of seven GTB countries are below the 50-points-threshold of no growth.
Only India regains a positive growth outlook, climbing +5 points to an index of 54.
Overall downward tendency equally triggered by weakening air (-3 to 42 points) as well as ocean trade (-2 to 46 points).

The DHL Global Trade Barometer predicts protracted slowdown in global trade, sliding -2 points to 45 since the latest update in September. Out of all the surveyed countries, only India is expected to grow moderately at 54 points (+5 points). Japan (-5 points) and UK (-4 points) show the largest drop in outlook, while the respective trade outlooks for China (-3 points), Germany (-3 points), South Korea (-2 points) and USA (-1 point) are also slightly decelerating.

The global air trade outlook remains negative, dropping -3 points to 42, as all seven GTB countries are forecasted to contract. A significant decline in air trade is expected in Japan (-7 points) and Germany (-7 points). India (-4 points), UK (-4 points), China (-2 points), USA (-2 points) and South Korea (-1 point) are also predicted to decline to varying degrees.

Global ocean trade is predicted to mildly decline, dropping -2 points to 46. India (index 60) and – to a lesser extent – Japan (index 51) are the two countries forecasted to grow modestly. The weakest ocean outlook on the other hand is for China, dropping -4 points to an index of 43. The USA ocean outlook improved slightly (+1 point), but is still expected to contract, lingering below the 50-points-threshold of no growth. For the UK (-5 points), Japan (-4 points) and South Korea (-3 points), ocean trade is also predicted to decelerate. The outlook for Germany remains with 45 index points unchanged.


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