Global Trade Barometer
India Index
In-depth Report

India with mildly positive growth outlook, driven by solid ocean trade

>50 = Expansion 50 = Stable <50 = Contraction
Indian trade expected to increase by +5 points to 54 indicating a mild growth outlook.
Out of all GTB countries, India is the only one with a mildly positive trade outlook for the next quarter.
Increase triggered by a +10-point-jump of ocean trade to a solid growth outlook at 60 index points.
Air trade outlook drops by -4 points to 44.

The DHL Global Trade Barometer forecasts Indian trade growth to accelerate by +5 points compared to the previous update in September, reaching 54 index points. Therefore, India is the only country above the 50-points-threshold which indicates a positive growth outlook. This development is mainly driven by Indian ocean trade jumping +10 points to 60. Indian air trade, however, remains frail, dropping -4 points to 44.

The Indian air trade outlook is adversely affected by lagging imports. Imports across all industries are expected to perform poorly with Basic and Industrial Raw Materials and Machinery Parts declining into contraction. Conversely, air exports regain momentum spearheaded by the bullish outlook for Basic Raw Materials and Temperature or Climate Controlled Goods. Exports of Consumer Fashion Goods are also expected to recover after a dismal performance throughout the year. However, Chemicals & Products and Industrial Raw Materials weigh on air export outlook.

Ocean trade is boosted by the flourishing imports while exports slip. Ocean imports of Basic and Industrial Raw Materials and Chemicals & Products are predicted to grow vigorously, fully offsetting the slowdown in Machinery Parts, High Technology and Personal & Household Goods. For ocean exports, Basic Raw Materials, Chemicals & Products and Temperature or Climate Controlled Goods continue to prompt a stable outlook. However, Industrial Raw Materials and Land Vehicles & Parts are forecasted to slide even further into contraction.


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