UK trade decreases mildly – falling just below the point of stagnation
The DHL Global Trade Barometer predicts British trade growth to come to a standstill, dropping -4 points to 49 compared to September. The expected slowdown is driven by both air and ocean trade, as air trade drops -4 points to 49 while ocean trade slides -5 points to 48.
The sluggish air trade outlook is mostly driven by the slowdown in imports. Imports of Consumer Fashion Goods, Temperature or Climate Controlled Goods and Basic and Industrial Raw Materials are expected to weigh on air trade outlook. Contracting exports of Basic Raw Materials and Chemicals & Products together with the frail Machinery Parts undercut the positive outlook for Temperature or Climate Controlled Goods.
The British ocean trade outlook is dampened by a sluggish outlook for Capital Equipment & Machinery, Land Vehicles & Parts and Machinery Parts. The positive exception is the robust outlook for Basic Raw Materials exports. Ocean imports are also expected to contract, fueled by the downturn in Basic and Industrial Raw Materials, Machinery Parts and Consumer Fashion Goods. Temperature or Climate Controlled Goods is the sole industry that is expected to grow moderately.