German trade expected to further decrease over next three months
The DHL Global Trade Barometer forecasts a further slowdown of the overall German trade, decreasing -3 points to 45 compared to the last update in September. The slowdown is solely attributed to the deceleration in air trade dropping -7 points to 45. The outlook for ocean trade stagnates below the 50-points-threshold of no growth at an index of 45.
The decline in air trade outlook relates to dwindling air exports. Air exports of Capital Equipment & Machinery, Land Vehicles & Parts and High Technology abate into deflation. However, exports of Basic and Industrial Raw Materials and Chemicals & Products are expected to grow moderately – albeit at a slower pace. Air imports are lifted by a positive growth outlook for Land Vehicles & Parts, Basic Raw Materials and Machinery Parts, offsetting the expected decline of Chemicals & Products and the Consumer Fashion Goods air imports.
The outlook for ocean trade is aggravated by the weakening ocean exports. Faltering exports of Capital Equipment & Machinery and Land Vehicles & Parts offset the mild growth expected for Machinery Parts and Basic Raw Materials. Ocean imports are also predicted to decelerate as Land Vehicles & Parts and Consumer Fashion Goods continue to weigh on the ocean trade outlook.