Array
(
[derick] => Array
(
[Positive signals for air freight capacity] => Positive signals for air freight capacity
[A relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions leads to more air travel, but China remains a concern.] => 新型コロナ関連の規制が緩和され、航空旅客が徐々に増えてきているが、中国はまだ懸念を残しています。
[Capacity for recovery
Elsewhere, the signs are largely positive. Across the world, IATA recorded an 11-percentage point increase in international tickets sold between late January 2022 and early February 2022, as more passenger services returned to the skies.
Tracking seven day moving averages, IATA reported on 25 January that the number of air tickets sold was 38 percent of those during the same period in 2019. However, around 8 February 2022, the number of tickets sold was 49 percent of the amount sold during the same period in 2019.
IATA notes that the 11-percentage point improvement between the January and February periods is the fastest such increase for any two-week period since the crisis began. This is due in part to a spate of border restrictions being relaxed around the world.
“With these factors in play, and a general relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions around the world, we are expecting a recovery in bellyhold capacity in the near future," said Thomas Mack, Global Head of Air Freight, DHL Global Forwarding.
Cancellations and a slow return to work
Obstacles, however, remain. In China, authorities continue to execute strict anti-pandemic measures, resulting in lower productivity in cargo handling and processing at key airport hubs.
China Cargo and China Southern airlines cancelled 31 flights into the U.S. until mid-February, which were mostly scheduled to carry Covid-19 test kits on charter flights. In Hong Kong, Cathay Pacific cancelled 80 percent of its freighter capacity into the U.S. and the South West Pacific until end of March 2022 due to new quarantine requirements.
Covid-19 outbreaks and lockdowns also continue to blight China’s internal logistics and manufacturing output. On 17 February 2022, analyst firm Nomura noted there were five major Covid-19 clusters. This includes manufacturing centers such as Shenzhen and Suzhou, where tech companies were reported to have shut down factories as part of the containment process.
Nomura also found that for this year, only 58 percent of workers had returned to work by 17 February after the Lunar New Year holidays. This is 4.4 percentage points lower than in 2019.
More broadly, while the momentum towards normalizing traffic is growing, IATA said 13 of the top 50 travel markets still did not provide easy access to all vaccinated travelers, including major economies such as China, Japan, Russia, Indonesia, and Italy.
Breathing space
On the other hand, the brief slowdown in cargo demand after the Lunar New Year has allowed businesses to catch up and be more prepared to balance their inventory to sales ratio.
This has helped to reduce some of the load, but with cargo continuing to convert from ocean to air freight, and e-commerce demand continuing to grow, capacity will remain tight for a while.] =>
一方で、旧正月後の貨物需要の一時的な減速により、企業は在庫と売上のバランスに追いつき、より準備できる体制になっています。
これは負担の一部を減らすことに役立ちましたが、貨物が海上貨物から航空貨物に転換し続け、Eコマースの需要が増え続けているため、キャパシティは引き続きしばらくはタイトなままとなります。
[The nascent recovery in capacity still lags behind ongoing strong demand. Airports across the E.U. are also experiencing labor shortages, affecting warehouse activities and leading to delays in operations that will further affect transit times.
This month, and next, will see some more positive signs. Australia and New Zealand are opening up international borders and allowing domestic travel for those who are vaccinated from 21 February 2022.
A number of carriers, including Emirates, British Airways, Etihad and Auckland-based Go Air Land Sea Logistics, are restarting flights, which will add to overall freight capacity. Air New Zealand also plans to relaunch 24 international routes in March 2022.
“With these positive market signals, we are hoping to see further improvements in the second half of 2022,” said Leung.
Ongoing challenges beyond border restrictions
In the face of this, businesses should be cautiously optimistic, and should always bear in mind that the situation is always evolving as the ongoing labor shortage in major airports is still being resolved.
“It is imperative that businesses match their inventory, and demand, as far ahead as possible with the available capacity, even as we are seeing some signs of recovery,” said Mack.] => キャパシティの初期の回復は、継続的な強い需要にまだ遅れをとっています。EU全域の空港でも、労働力不足が発生しており、倉庫運営に影響を及ぼし、オペレーションの遅延となり、トランジットタイムに更に影響を及ぼしています。
今月と来月には、さらにポジティブな兆候が見られるでしょう。オーストラリアとニュージーランドは国境を再開し、2022年2月21日から、ワクチン接種を受けた人々の国内旅行を許可しています。
エミレーツ、ブリティッシュ航空、エティハド航空、そしてオークランドを拠点とするGo Air Land Sea Logisticsを含む多くの航空キャリアがフライトを再開しており、これにより、全体的な貨物キャパシティが増加します。 エアーニュージーランドは2022年3月に24の国際路線を再開する予定です。
「これらポジティブなマーケットのサインで、2022年下半期の更なる改善がみられることを期待しています」と、レウン氏は述べています。
国境の規制を超えた継続的なチャレンジ
これに直面して、企業は慎重かつ楽観的である必要があり、主要空港で進行中の労働力不足がまだ解決されていないため、状況は常に変化していることを常に念頭に置く必要があります。
「回復の兆しがみられるものの、企業は在庫と需要を、可能な限り先に利用可能なキャパシティと一致させることが不可欠です」と、マック氏は述べています。
[Bellyhold capacity is finally beginning to show potential signs of improvement as more countries relax travel restrictions amid the weaker Covid-19 Omicron variant.
And while China’s strict lockdowns remain an obstacle to any broader recovery, there are hopes that restrictions may ease now in the coming months.
High vaccination rates, the end of winter and the less severe nature of the Omicron variant have seen the E.U. and U.K. relax rules, according to DHL’s Air Freight State of the Industry. The UAE has also lifted a ban on passenger travel and is likely to restore flights.
But China’s severe zero-Covid policy – forcing local lockdowns that dislocate transport and airport networks – is continuing to disrupt air cargo markets and global manufacturing.
“China’s Covid-19 policies do add to the risk in terms of manufacturing output and overall capacity of the air cargo logistics pipeline,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.
“We are constantly monitoring outbreaks and their impact on production and logistics. And we are hopeful we’ll see some relaxation of those policies in the coming months,” adds Leung.] => 新型コロナウイルスのオミクロン株が弱まっている中で、より多くの国が渡航禁止を緩和するにつれ、航空貨物のベリー容量はようやく改善の潜在的な兆候を示し始めました。
中国の厳格な封鎖策は、より広範な回復の障害となっていますが、今後数か月のうちに緩和される可能性があります。
DHLの航空貨物概況によると、高いワクチン接種率、冬の終わり、そしてオミクロン株のそれほど深刻ではない性質により、EUや英国では規制を緩和しています。アラブ首長国連邦も旅行の禁止を解除し、フライトを回復する可能性があります。
しかしながら中国での、輸送と航空ネットワークを混乱させる地域封鎖を強制する厳格なゼロコロナ政策は、引き続き航空貨物市場と世界的な製造業を混乱させ続けています。
「中国のコロナ対策は、製造業の生産量と航空貨物輸送のパイプライン全体のキャパシティという点で、リスクを高めています」と、DHLグローバルフォワーディング、アジアパシフィックCEOのケルビン レウンは述べています。「私たちは、そのロジスティクスへの影響を常にモニターしています。そして今後数か月のうちに、これらの政策がある程度緩和されることを期待しています。」
[wysiwyg] => wysiwyg
[outbound_box] => outbound_box
[A relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions leads to more air travel, but China remains a concern. Bellyhold capacity is finally beginning to show potential signs of improvement as more countries relax travel restrictions amid the weaker Covid-19 Omicron variant.
And while China’s strict lockdowns remain an obstacle to any broader recovery, there are hopes that restrictions may ease now in the coming months.
High vaccination rates, the end of winter and the less severe nature of the Omicron variant have seen the E.U. and U.K. relax rules, according to DHL’s Air Freight State of the Industry. The UAE has also lifted a ban on passenger travel and is likely to restore flights.
But China’s severe zero-Covid policy – forcing local lockdowns that dislocate transport and airport networks – is continuing to disrupt air cargo markets and global manufacturing.
“China’s Covid-19 policies do add to the risk in terms of manufacturing output and overall capacity of the air cargo logistics pipeline,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.
“We are constantly monitoring outbreaks and their impact on production and logistics. And we are hopeful we’ll see some relaxation of those policies in the coming months,” adds Leung.
RELATED ARTICLESChina casts a pall over air cargo capacityFlight cancellations due to Covid-19 outbreaks across various Chinese airports will further impact operations in 2022.Capacity for recovery
Elsewhere, the signs are largely positive. Across the world, IATA recorded an 11-percentage point increase in international tickets sold between late January 2022 and early February 2022, as more passenger services returned to the skies.
Tracking seven day moving averages, IATA reported on 25 January that the number of air tickets sold was 38 percent of those during the same period in 2019. However, around 8 February 2022, the number of tickets sold was 49 percent of the amount sold during the same period in 2019.
IATA notes that the 11-percentage point improvement between the January and February periods is the fastest such increase for any two-week period since the crisis began. This is due in part to a spate of border restrictions being relaxed around the world.
“With these factors in play, and a general relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions around the world, we are expecting a recovery in bellyhold capacity in the near future,” said Thomas Mack, Global Head of Air Freight, DHL Global Forwarding.
Cancellations and a slow return to work
Obstacles, however, remain. In China, authorities continue to execute strict anti-pandemic measures, resulting in lower productivity in cargo handling and processing at key airport hubs.
China Cargo and China Southern airlines cancelled 31 flights into the U.S. until mid-February, which were mostly scheduled to carry Covid-19 test kits on charter flights. In Hong Kong, Cathay Pacific cancelled 80 percent of its freighter capacity into the U.S. and the South West Pacific until end of March 2022 due to new quarantine requirements.
Covid-19 outbreaks and lockdowns also continue to blight China’s internal logistics and manufacturing output. On 17 February 2022, analyst firm Nomura noted there were five major Covid-19 clusters. This includes manufacturing centers such as Shenzhen and Suzhou, where tech companies were reported to have shut down factories as part of the containment process.
Nomura also found that for this year, only 58 percent of workers had returned to work by 17 February after the Lunar New Year holidays. This is 4.4 percentage points lower than in 2019.
More broadly, while the momentum towards normalizing traffic is growing, IATA said 13 of the top 50 travel markets still did not provide easy access to all vaccinated travelers, including major economies such as China, Japan, Russia, Indonesia, and Italy.
Breathing space
On the other hand, the brief slowdown in cargo demand after the Lunar New Year has allowed businesses to catch up and be more prepared to balance their inventory to sales ratio.
This has helped to reduce some of the load, but with cargo continuing to convert from ocean to air freight, and e-commerce demand continuing to grow, capacity will remain tight for a while.
RELATED ARTICLESIntra-Asian lanes affected by ongoing capacity shift from Asia to U.S.Ongoing container fleet growth is slow and will require more time to balance out capacity versus demand.The nascent recovery in capacity still lags behind ongoing strong demand. Airports across the E.U. are also experiencing labor shortages, affecting warehouse activities and leading to delays in operations that will further affect transit times.
This month, and next, will see some more positive signs. Australia and New Zealand are opening up international borders and allowing domestic travel for those who are vaccinated from 21 February 2022.
A number of carriers, including Emirates, British Airways, Etihad and Auckland-based Go Air Land Sea Logistics, are restarting flights, which will add to overall freight capacity. Air New Zealand also plans to relaunch 24 international routes in March 2022.
“With these positive market signals, we are hoping to see further improvements in the second half of 2022,” said Leung.
Ongoing challenges beyond border restrictions
In the face of this, businesses should be cautiously optimistic, and should always bear in mind that the situation is always evolving as the ongoing labor shortage in major airports is still being resolved.
“It is imperative that businesses match their inventory, and demand, as far ahead as possible with the available capacity, even as we are seeing some signs of recovery,” said Mack.] =>
エミレーツ、ブリティッシュ航空、エティハド航空、そしてオークランドを拠点とするGo Air Land Sea Logisticsを含む多くの航空キャリアがフライトを再開しており、これにより、全体的な貨物キャパシティが増加します。 エアーニュージーランドは2022年3月に24の国際路線を再開する予定です。
[] =>
[positive-signals-air-freight-capacity] => positive-signals-air-freight-capacity
[Monthly air freight update] =>
[AFR-Jan-2022-key-image] => AFR-Jan-2022-key-image
[China casts a pall over air cargo capacity] => China casts a pall over freight
[intra-asian-lanes-affected-key-image] => intra-asian-lanes-affected-key-image
[Intra-Asian lanes affected by ongoing capacity shift from Asia to U.S.] => Intra-Asian lanes affected by ongoing capacity shift from Asia to U.S.
[positive-signals-air-freight-capacity-single-column] => positive-signals-air-freight-capacity-single-column
[positive-signals-air-freight-capacity-key-image] => positive-signals-air-freight-capacity-key-image
)
[$value] => Bellyhold capacity is finally beginning to show potential signs of improvement as more countries relax travel restrictions amid the weaker Covid-19 Omicron variant.
And while China’s strict lockdowns remain an obstacle to any broader recovery, there are hopes that restrictions may ease now in the coming months.
High vaccination rates, the end of winter and the less severe nature of the Omicron variant have seen the E.U. and U.K. relax rules, according to DHL’s Air Freight State of the Industry. The UAE has also lifted a ban on passenger travel and is likely to restore flights.
But China’s severe zero-Covid policy – forcing local lockdowns that dislocate transport and airport networks – is continuing to disrupt air cargo markets and global manufacturing.
“China’s Covid-19 policies do add to the risk in terms of manufacturing output and overall capacity of the air cargo logistics pipeline,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.
“We are constantly monitoring outbreaks and their impact on production and logistics. And we are hopeful we’ll see some relaxation of those policies in the coming months,” adds Leung.
)
Array
(
[derick] => Array
(
[Positive signals for air freight capacity] => Positive signals for air freight capacity
[A relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions leads to more air travel, but China remains a concern.] => 新型コロナ関連の規制が緩和され、航空旅客が徐々に増えてきているが、中国はまだ懸念を残しています。
[Capacity for recovery
Elsewhere, the signs are largely positive. Across the world, IATA recorded an 11-percentage point increase in international tickets sold between late January 2022 and early February 2022, as more passenger services returned to the skies.
Tracking seven day moving averages, IATA reported on 25 January that the number of air tickets sold was 38 percent of those during the same period in 2019. However, around 8 February 2022, the number of tickets sold was 49 percent of the amount sold during the same period in 2019.
IATA notes that the 11-percentage point improvement between the January and February periods is the fastest such increase for any two-week period since the crisis began. This is due in part to a spate of border restrictions being relaxed around the world.
“With these factors in play, and a general relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions around the world, we are expecting a recovery in bellyhold capacity in the near future," said Thomas Mack, Global Head of Air Freight, DHL Global Forwarding.
Cancellations and a slow return to work
Obstacles, however, remain. In China, authorities continue to execute strict anti-pandemic measures, resulting in lower productivity in cargo handling and processing at key airport hubs.
China Cargo and China Southern airlines cancelled 31 flights into the U.S. until mid-February, which were mostly scheduled to carry Covid-19 test kits on charter flights. In Hong Kong, Cathay Pacific cancelled 80 percent of its freighter capacity into the U.S. and the South West Pacific until end of March 2022 due to new quarantine requirements.
Covid-19 outbreaks and lockdowns also continue to blight China’s internal logistics and manufacturing output. On 17 February 2022, analyst firm Nomura noted there were five major Covid-19 clusters. This includes manufacturing centers such as Shenzhen and Suzhou, where tech companies were reported to have shut down factories as part of the containment process.
Nomura also found that for this year, only 58 percent of workers had returned to work by 17 February after the Lunar New Year holidays. This is 4.4 percentage points lower than in 2019.
More broadly, while the momentum towards normalizing traffic is growing, IATA said 13 of the top 50 travel markets still did not provide easy access to all vaccinated travelers, including major economies such as China, Japan, Russia, Indonesia, and Italy.
Breathing space
On the other hand, the brief slowdown in cargo demand after the Lunar New Year has allowed businesses to catch up and be more prepared to balance their inventory to sales ratio.
This has helped to reduce some of the load, but with cargo continuing to convert from ocean to air freight, and e-commerce demand continuing to grow, capacity will remain tight for a while.] =>
一方で、旧正月後の貨物需要の一時的な減速により、企業は在庫と売上のバランスに追いつき、より準備できる体制になっています。
これは負担の一部を減らすことに役立ちましたが、貨物が海上貨物から航空貨物に転換し続け、Eコマースの需要が増え続けているため、キャパシティは引き続きしばらくはタイトなままとなります。
[The nascent recovery in capacity still lags behind ongoing strong demand. Airports across the E.U. are also experiencing labor shortages, affecting warehouse activities and leading to delays in operations that will further affect transit times.
This month, and next, will see some more positive signs. Australia and New Zealand are opening up international borders and allowing domestic travel for those who are vaccinated from 21 February 2022.
A number of carriers, including Emirates, British Airways, Etihad and Auckland-based Go Air Land Sea Logistics, are restarting flights, which will add to overall freight capacity. Air New Zealand also plans to relaunch 24 international routes in March 2022.
“With these positive market signals, we are hoping to see further improvements in the second half of 2022,” said Leung.
Ongoing challenges beyond border restrictions
In the face of this, businesses should be cautiously optimistic, and should always bear in mind that the situation is always evolving as the ongoing labor shortage in major airports is still being resolved.
“It is imperative that businesses match their inventory, and demand, as far ahead as possible with the available capacity, even as we are seeing some signs of recovery,” said Mack.] => キャパシティの初期の回復は、継続的な強い需要にまだ遅れをとっています。EU全域の空港でも、労働力不足が発生しており、倉庫運営に影響を及ぼし、オペレーションの遅延となり、トランジットタイムに更に影響を及ぼしています。
今月と来月には、さらにポジティブな兆候が見られるでしょう。オーストラリアとニュージーランドは国境を再開し、2022年2月21日から、ワクチン接種を受けた人々の国内旅行を許可しています。
エミレーツ、ブリティッシュ航空、エティハド航空、そしてオークランドを拠点とするGo Air Land Sea Logisticsを含む多くの航空キャリアがフライトを再開しており、これにより、全体的な貨物キャパシティが増加します。 エアーニュージーランドは2022年3月に24の国際路線を再開する予定です。
「これらポジティブなマーケットのサインで、2022年下半期の更なる改善がみられることを期待しています」と、レウン氏は述べています。
国境の規制を超えた継続的なチャレンジ
これに直面して、企業は慎重かつ楽観的である必要があり、主要空港で進行中の労働力不足がまだ解決されていないため、状況は常に変化していることを常に念頭に置く必要があります。
「回復の兆しがみられるものの、企業は在庫と需要を、可能な限り先に利用可能なキャパシティと一致させることが不可欠です」と、マック氏は述べています。
[Bellyhold capacity is finally beginning to show potential signs of improvement as more countries relax travel restrictions amid the weaker Covid-19 Omicron variant.
And while China’s strict lockdowns remain an obstacle to any broader recovery, there are hopes that restrictions may ease now in the coming months.
High vaccination rates, the end of winter and the less severe nature of the Omicron variant have seen the E.U. and U.K. relax rules, according to DHL’s Air Freight State of the Industry. The UAE has also lifted a ban on passenger travel and is likely to restore flights.
But China’s severe zero-Covid policy – forcing local lockdowns that dislocate transport and airport networks – is continuing to disrupt air cargo markets and global manufacturing.
“China’s Covid-19 policies do add to the risk in terms of manufacturing output and overall capacity of the air cargo logistics pipeline,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.
“We are constantly monitoring outbreaks and their impact on production and logistics. And we are hopeful we’ll see some relaxation of those policies in the coming months,” adds Leung.] => 新型コロナウイルスのオミクロン株が弱まっている中で、より多くの国が渡航禁止を緩和するにつれ、航空貨物のベリー容量はようやく改善の潜在的な兆候を示し始めました。
中国の厳格な封鎖策は、より広範な回復の障害となっていますが、今後数か月のうちに緩和される可能性があります。
DHLの航空貨物概況によると、高いワクチン接種率、冬の終わり、そしてオミクロン株のそれほど深刻ではない性質により、EUや英国では規制を緩和しています。アラブ首長国連邦も旅行の禁止を解除し、フライトを回復する可能性があります。
しかしながら中国での、輸送と航空ネットワークを混乱させる地域封鎖を強制する厳格なゼロコロナ政策は、引き続き航空貨物市場と世界的な製造業を混乱させ続けています。
「中国のコロナ対策は、製造業の生産量と航空貨物輸送のパイプライン全体のキャパシティという点で、リスクを高めています」と、DHLグローバルフォワーディング、アジアパシフィックCEOのケルビン レウンは述べています。「私たちは、そのロジスティクスへの影響を常にモニターしています。そして今後数か月のうちに、これらの政策がある程度緩和されることを期待しています。」
[wysiwyg] => wysiwyg
[outbound_box] => outbound_box
[A relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions leads to more air travel, but China remains a concern. Bellyhold capacity is finally beginning to show potential signs of improvement as more countries relax travel restrictions amid the weaker Covid-19 Omicron variant.
And while China’s strict lockdowns remain an obstacle to any broader recovery, there are hopes that restrictions may ease now in the coming months.
High vaccination rates, the end of winter and the less severe nature of the Omicron variant have seen the E.U. and U.K. relax rules, according to DHL’s Air Freight State of the Industry. The UAE has also lifted a ban on passenger travel and is likely to restore flights.
But China’s severe zero-Covid policy – forcing local lockdowns that dislocate transport and airport networks – is continuing to disrupt air cargo markets and global manufacturing.
“China’s Covid-19 policies do add to the risk in terms of manufacturing output and overall capacity of the air cargo logistics pipeline,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.
“We are constantly monitoring outbreaks and their impact on production and logistics. And we are hopeful we’ll see some relaxation of those policies in the coming months,” adds Leung.
RELATED ARTICLESChina casts a pall over air cargo capacityFlight cancellations due to Covid-19 outbreaks across various Chinese airports will further impact operations in 2022.Capacity for recovery
Elsewhere, the signs are largely positive. Across the world, IATA recorded an 11-percentage point increase in international tickets sold between late January 2022 and early February 2022, as more passenger services returned to the skies.
Tracking seven day moving averages, IATA reported on 25 January that the number of air tickets sold was 38 percent of those during the same period in 2019. However, around 8 February 2022, the number of tickets sold was 49 percent of the amount sold during the same period in 2019.
IATA notes that the 11-percentage point improvement between the January and February periods is the fastest such increase for any two-week period since the crisis began. This is due in part to a spate of border restrictions being relaxed around the world.
“With these factors in play, and a general relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions around the world, we are expecting a recovery in bellyhold capacity in the near future,” said Thomas Mack, Global Head of Air Freight, DHL Global Forwarding.
Cancellations and a slow return to work
Obstacles, however, remain. In China, authorities continue to execute strict anti-pandemic measures, resulting in lower productivity in cargo handling and processing at key airport hubs.
China Cargo and China Southern airlines cancelled 31 flights into the U.S. until mid-February, which were mostly scheduled to carry Covid-19 test kits on charter flights. In Hong Kong, Cathay Pacific cancelled 80 percent of its freighter capacity into the U.S. and the South West Pacific until end of March 2022 due to new quarantine requirements.
Covid-19 outbreaks and lockdowns also continue to blight China’s internal logistics and manufacturing output. On 17 February 2022, analyst firm Nomura noted there were five major Covid-19 clusters. This includes manufacturing centers such as Shenzhen and Suzhou, where tech companies were reported to have shut down factories as part of the containment process.
Nomura also found that for this year, only 58 percent of workers had returned to work by 17 February after the Lunar New Year holidays. This is 4.4 percentage points lower than in 2019.
More broadly, while the momentum towards normalizing traffic is growing, IATA said 13 of the top 50 travel markets still did not provide easy access to all vaccinated travelers, including major economies such as China, Japan, Russia, Indonesia, and Italy.
Breathing space
On the other hand, the brief slowdown in cargo demand after the Lunar New Year has allowed businesses to catch up and be more prepared to balance their inventory to sales ratio.
This has helped to reduce some of the load, but with cargo continuing to convert from ocean to air freight, and e-commerce demand continuing to grow, capacity will remain tight for a while.
RELATED ARTICLESIntra-Asian lanes affected by ongoing capacity shift from Asia to U.S.Ongoing container fleet growth is slow and will require more time to balance out capacity versus demand.The nascent recovery in capacity still lags behind ongoing strong demand. Airports across the E.U. are also experiencing labor shortages, affecting warehouse activities and leading to delays in operations that will further affect transit times.
This month, and next, will see some more positive signs. Australia and New Zealand are opening up international borders and allowing domestic travel for those who are vaccinated from 21 February 2022.
A number of carriers, including Emirates, British Airways, Etihad and Auckland-based Go Air Land Sea Logistics, are restarting flights, which will add to overall freight capacity. Air New Zealand also plans to relaunch 24 international routes in March 2022.
“With these positive market signals, we are hoping to see further improvements in the second half of 2022,” said Leung.
Ongoing challenges beyond border restrictions
In the face of this, businesses should be cautiously optimistic, and should always bear in mind that the situation is always evolving as the ongoing labor shortage in major airports is still being resolved.
“It is imperative that businesses match their inventory, and demand, as far ahead as possible with the available capacity, even as we are seeing some signs of recovery,” said Mack.] =>
エミレーツ、ブリティッシュ航空、エティハド航空、そしてオークランドを拠点とするGo Air Land Sea Logisticsを含む多くの航空キャリアがフライトを再開しており、これにより、全体的な貨物キャパシティが増加します。 エアーニュージーランドは2022年3月に24の国際路線を再開する予定です。
[] =>
[positive-signals-air-freight-capacity] => positive-signals-air-freight-capacity
[Monthly air freight update] =>
[AFR-Jan-2022-key-image] => AFR-Jan-2022-key-image
[China casts a pall over air cargo capacity] => China casts a pall over freight
[intra-asian-lanes-affected-key-image] => intra-asian-lanes-affected-key-image
[Intra-Asian lanes affected by ongoing capacity shift from Asia to U.S.] => Intra-Asian lanes affected by ongoing capacity shift from Asia to U.S.
[positive-signals-air-freight-capacity-single-column] => positive-signals-air-freight-capacity-single-column
[positive-signals-air-freight-capacity-key-image] => positive-signals-air-freight-capacity-key-image
)
[$value] =>
Capacity for recovery
Elsewhere, the signs are largely positive. Across the world, IATA recorded an 11-percentage point increase in international tickets sold between late January 2022 and early February 2022, as more passenger services returned to the skies.
Tracking seven day moving averages, IATA reported on 25 January that the number of air tickets sold was 38 percent of those during the same period in 2019. However, around 8 February 2022, the number of tickets sold was 49 percent of the amount sold during the same period in 2019.
IATA notes that the 11-percentage point improvement between the January and February periods is the fastest such increase for any two-week period since the crisis began. This is due in part to a spate of border restrictions being relaxed around the world.
“With these factors in play, and a general relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions around the world, we are expecting a recovery in bellyhold capacity in the near future," said Thomas Mack, Global Head of Air Freight, DHL Global Forwarding.
Cancellations and a slow return to work
Obstacles, however, remain. In China, authorities continue to execute strict anti-pandemic measures, resulting in lower productivity in cargo handling and processing at key airport hubs.
China Cargo and China Southern airlines cancelled 31 flights into the U.S. until mid-February, which were mostly scheduled to carry Covid-19 test kits on charter flights. In Hong Kong, Cathay Pacific cancelled 80 percent of its freighter capacity into the U.S. and the South West Pacific until end of March 2022 due to new quarantine requirements.
Covid-19 outbreaks and lockdowns also continue to blight China’s internal logistics and manufacturing output. On 17 February 2022, analyst firm Nomura noted there were five major Covid-19 clusters. This includes manufacturing centers such as Shenzhen and Suzhou, where tech companies were reported to have shut down factories as part of the containment process.
Nomura also found that for this year, only 58 percent of workers had returned to work by 17 February after the Lunar New Year holidays. This is 4.4 percentage points lower than in 2019.
More broadly, while the momentum towards normalizing traffic is growing, IATA said 13 of the top 50 travel markets still did not provide easy access to all vaccinated travelers, including major economies such as China, Japan, Russia, Indonesia, and Italy.
Breathing space
On the other hand, the brief slowdown in cargo demand after the Lunar New Year has allowed businesses to catch up and be more prepared to balance their inventory to sales ratio.
This has helped to reduce some of the load, but with cargo continuing to convert from ocean to air freight, and e-commerce demand continuing to grow, capacity will remain tight for a while.
)
Array
(
[derick] => Array
(
[Positive signals for air freight capacity] => Positive signals for air freight capacity
[A relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions leads to more air travel, but China remains a concern.] => 新型コロナ関連の規制が緩和され、航空旅客が徐々に増えてきているが、中国はまだ懸念を残しています。
[Capacity for recovery
Elsewhere, the signs are largely positive. Across the world, IATA recorded an 11-percentage point increase in international tickets sold between late January 2022 and early February 2022, as more passenger services returned to the skies.
Tracking seven day moving averages, IATA reported on 25 January that the number of air tickets sold was 38 percent of those during the same period in 2019. However, around 8 February 2022, the number of tickets sold was 49 percent of the amount sold during the same period in 2019.
IATA notes that the 11-percentage point improvement between the January and February periods is the fastest such increase for any two-week period since the crisis began. This is due in part to a spate of border restrictions being relaxed around the world.
“With these factors in play, and a general relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions around the world, we are expecting a recovery in bellyhold capacity in the near future," said Thomas Mack, Global Head of Air Freight, DHL Global Forwarding.
Cancellations and a slow return to work
Obstacles, however, remain. In China, authorities continue to execute strict anti-pandemic measures, resulting in lower productivity in cargo handling and processing at key airport hubs.
China Cargo and China Southern airlines cancelled 31 flights into the U.S. until mid-February, which were mostly scheduled to carry Covid-19 test kits on charter flights. In Hong Kong, Cathay Pacific cancelled 80 percent of its freighter capacity into the U.S. and the South West Pacific until end of March 2022 due to new quarantine requirements.
Covid-19 outbreaks and lockdowns also continue to blight China’s internal logistics and manufacturing output. On 17 February 2022, analyst firm Nomura noted there were five major Covid-19 clusters. This includes manufacturing centers such as Shenzhen and Suzhou, where tech companies were reported to have shut down factories as part of the containment process.
Nomura also found that for this year, only 58 percent of workers had returned to work by 17 February after the Lunar New Year holidays. This is 4.4 percentage points lower than in 2019.
More broadly, while the momentum towards normalizing traffic is growing, IATA said 13 of the top 50 travel markets still did not provide easy access to all vaccinated travelers, including major economies such as China, Japan, Russia, Indonesia, and Italy.
Breathing space
On the other hand, the brief slowdown in cargo demand after the Lunar New Year has allowed businesses to catch up and be more prepared to balance their inventory to sales ratio.
This has helped to reduce some of the load, but with cargo continuing to convert from ocean to air freight, and e-commerce demand continuing to grow, capacity will remain tight for a while.] =>
一方で、旧正月後の貨物需要の一時的な減速により、企業は在庫と売上のバランスに追いつき、より準備できる体制になっています。
これは負担の一部を減らすことに役立ちましたが、貨物が海上貨物から航空貨物に転換し続け、Eコマースの需要が増え続けているため、キャパシティは引き続きしばらくはタイトなままとなります。
[The nascent recovery in capacity still lags behind ongoing strong demand. Airports across the E.U. are also experiencing labor shortages, affecting warehouse activities and leading to delays in operations that will further affect transit times.
This month, and next, will see some more positive signs. Australia and New Zealand are opening up international borders and allowing domestic travel for those who are vaccinated from 21 February 2022.
A number of carriers, including Emirates, British Airways, Etihad and Auckland-based Go Air Land Sea Logistics, are restarting flights, which will add to overall freight capacity. Air New Zealand also plans to relaunch 24 international routes in March 2022.
“With these positive market signals, we are hoping to see further improvements in the second half of 2022,” said Leung.
Ongoing challenges beyond border restrictions
In the face of this, businesses should be cautiously optimistic, and should always bear in mind that the situation is always evolving as the ongoing labor shortage in major airports is still being resolved.
“It is imperative that businesses match their inventory, and demand, as far ahead as possible with the available capacity, even as we are seeing some signs of recovery,” said Mack.] => キャパシティの初期の回復は、継続的な強い需要にまだ遅れをとっています。EU全域の空港でも、労働力不足が発生しており、倉庫運営に影響を及ぼし、オペレーションの遅延となり、トランジットタイムに更に影響を及ぼしています。
今月と来月には、さらにポジティブな兆候が見られるでしょう。オーストラリアとニュージーランドは国境を再開し、2022年2月21日から、ワクチン接種を受けた人々の国内旅行を許可しています。
エミレーツ、ブリティッシュ航空、エティハド航空、そしてオークランドを拠点とするGo Air Land Sea Logisticsを含む多くの航空キャリアがフライトを再開しており、これにより、全体的な貨物キャパシティが増加します。 エアーニュージーランドは2022年3月に24の国際路線を再開する予定です。
「これらポジティブなマーケットのサインで、2022年下半期の更なる改善がみられることを期待しています」と、レウン氏は述べています。
国境の規制を超えた継続的なチャレンジ
これに直面して、企業は慎重かつ楽観的である必要があり、主要空港で進行中の労働力不足がまだ解決されていないため、状況は常に変化していることを常に念頭に置く必要があります。
「回復の兆しがみられるものの、企業は在庫と需要を、可能な限り先に利用可能なキャパシティと一致させることが不可欠です」と、マック氏は述べています。
[Bellyhold capacity is finally beginning to show potential signs of improvement as more countries relax travel restrictions amid the weaker Covid-19 Omicron variant.
And while China’s strict lockdowns remain an obstacle to any broader recovery, there are hopes that restrictions may ease now in the coming months.
High vaccination rates, the end of winter and the less severe nature of the Omicron variant have seen the E.U. and U.K. relax rules, according to DHL’s Air Freight State of the Industry. The UAE has also lifted a ban on passenger travel and is likely to restore flights.
But China’s severe zero-Covid policy – forcing local lockdowns that dislocate transport and airport networks – is continuing to disrupt air cargo markets and global manufacturing.
“China’s Covid-19 policies do add to the risk in terms of manufacturing output and overall capacity of the air cargo logistics pipeline,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.
“We are constantly monitoring outbreaks and their impact on production and logistics. And we are hopeful we’ll see some relaxation of those policies in the coming months,” adds Leung.] => 新型コロナウイルスのオミクロン株が弱まっている中で、より多くの国が渡航禁止を緩和するにつれ、航空貨物のベリー容量はようやく改善の潜在的な兆候を示し始めました。
中国の厳格な封鎖策は、より広範な回復の障害となっていますが、今後数か月のうちに緩和される可能性があります。
DHLの航空貨物概況によると、高いワクチン接種率、冬の終わり、そしてオミクロン株のそれほど深刻ではない性質により、EUや英国では規制を緩和しています。アラブ首長国連邦も旅行の禁止を解除し、フライトを回復する可能性があります。
しかしながら中国での、輸送と航空ネットワークを混乱させる地域封鎖を強制する厳格なゼロコロナ政策は、引き続き航空貨物市場と世界的な製造業を混乱させ続けています。
「中国のコロナ対策は、製造業の生産量と航空貨物輸送のパイプライン全体のキャパシティという点で、リスクを高めています」と、DHLグローバルフォワーディング、アジアパシフィックCEOのケルビン レウンは述べています。「私たちは、そのロジスティクスへの影響を常にモニターしています。そして今後数か月のうちに、これらの政策がある程度緩和されることを期待しています。」
[wysiwyg] => wysiwyg
[outbound_box] => outbound_box
[A relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions leads to more air travel, but China remains a concern. Bellyhold capacity is finally beginning to show potential signs of improvement as more countries relax travel restrictions amid the weaker Covid-19 Omicron variant.
And while China’s strict lockdowns remain an obstacle to any broader recovery, there are hopes that restrictions may ease now in the coming months.
High vaccination rates, the end of winter and the less severe nature of the Omicron variant have seen the E.U. and U.K. relax rules, according to DHL’s Air Freight State of the Industry. The UAE has also lifted a ban on passenger travel and is likely to restore flights.
But China’s severe zero-Covid policy – forcing local lockdowns that dislocate transport and airport networks – is continuing to disrupt air cargo markets and global manufacturing.
“China’s Covid-19 policies do add to the risk in terms of manufacturing output and overall capacity of the air cargo logistics pipeline,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.
“We are constantly monitoring outbreaks and their impact on production and logistics. And we are hopeful we’ll see some relaxation of those policies in the coming months,” adds Leung.
RELATED ARTICLESChina casts a pall over air cargo capacityFlight cancellations due to Covid-19 outbreaks across various Chinese airports will further impact operations in 2022.Capacity for recovery
Elsewhere, the signs are largely positive. Across the world, IATA recorded an 11-percentage point increase in international tickets sold between late January 2022 and early February 2022, as more passenger services returned to the skies.
Tracking seven day moving averages, IATA reported on 25 January that the number of air tickets sold was 38 percent of those during the same period in 2019. However, around 8 February 2022, the number of tickets sold was 49 percent of the amount sold during the same period in 2019.
IATA notes that the 11-percentage point improvement between the January and February periods is the fastest such increase for any two-week period since the crisis began. This is due in part to a spate of border restrictions being relaxed around the world.
“With these factors in play, and a general relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions around the world, we are expecting a recovery in bellyhold capacity in the near future,” said Thomas Mack, Global Head of Air Freight, DHL Global Forwarding.
Cancellations and a slow return to work
Obstacles, however, remain. In China, authorities continue to execute strict anti-pandemic measures, resulting in lower productivity in cargo handling and processing at key airport hubs.
China Cargo and China Southern airlines cancelled 31 flights into the U.S. until mid-February, which were mostly scheduled to carry Covid-19 test kits on charter flights. In Hong Kong, Cathay Pacific cancelled 80 percent of its freighter capacity into the U.S. and the South West Pacific until end of March 2022 due to new quarantine requirements.
Covid-19 outbreaks and lockdowns also continue to blight China’s internal logistics and manufacturing output. On 17 February 2022, analyst firm Nomura noted there were five major Covid-19 clusters. This includes manufacturing centers such as Shenzhen and Suzhou, where tech companies were reported to have shut down factories as part of the containment process.
Nomura also found that for this year, only 58 percent of workers had returned to work by 17 February after the Lunar New Year holidays. This is 4.4 percentage points lower than in 2019.
More broadly, while the momentum towards normalizing traffic is growing, IATA said 13 of the top 50 travel markets still did not provide easy access to all vaccinated travelers, including major economies such as China, Japan, Russia, Indonesia, and Italy.
Breathing space
On the other hand, the brief slowdown in cargo demand after the Lunar New Year has allowed businesses to catch up and be more prepared to balance their inventory to sales ratio.
This has helped to reduce some of the load, but with cargo continuing to convert from ocean to air freight, and e-commerce demand continuing to grow, capacity will remain tight for a while.
RELATED ARTICLESIntra-Asian lanes affected by ongoing capacity shift from Asia to U.S.Ongoing container fleet growth is slow and will require more time to balance out capacity versus demand.The nascent recovery in capacity still lags behind ongoing strong demand. Airports across the E.U. are also experiencing labor shortages, affecting warehouse activities and leading to delays in operations that will further affect transit times.
This month, and next, will see some more positive signs. Australia and New Zealand are opening up international borders and allowing domestic travel for those who are vaccinated from 21 February 2022.
A number of carriers, including Emirates, British Airways, Etihad and Auckland-based Go Air Land Sea Logistics, are restarting flights, which will add to overall freight capacity. Air New Zealand also plans to relaunch 24 international routes in March 2022.
“With these positive market signals, we are hoping to see further improvements in the second half of 2022,” said Leung.
Ongoing challenges beyond border restrictions
In the face of this, businesses should be cautiously optimistic, and should always bear in mind that the situation is always evolving as the ongoing labor shortage in major airports is still being resolved.
“It is imperative that businesses match their inventory, and demand, as far ahead as possible with the available capacity, even as we are seeing some signs of recovery,” said Mack.] =>
エミレーツ、ブリティッシュ航空、エティハド航空、そしてオークランドを拠点とするGo Air Land Sea Logisticsを含む多くの航空キャリアがフライトを再開しており、これにより、全体的な貨物キャパシティが増加します。 エアーニュージーランドは2022年3月に24の国際路線を再開する予定です。
[] =>
[positive-signals-air-freight-capacity] => positive-signals-air-freight-capacity
[Monthly air freight update] =>
[AFR-Jan-2022-key-image] => AFR-Jan-2022-key-image
[China casts a pall over air cargo capacity] => China casts a pall over freight
[intra-asian-lanes-affected-key-image] => intra-asian-lanes-affected-key-image
[Intra-Asian lanes affected by ongoing capacity shift from Asia to U.S.] => Intra-Asian lanes affected by ongoing capacity shift from Asia to U.S.
[positive-signals-air-freight-capacity-single-column] => positive-signals-air-freight-capacity-single-column
[positive-signals-air-freight-capacity-key-image] => positive-signals-air-freight-capacity-key-image
)
[$value] => The nascent recovery in capacity still lags behind ongoing strong demand. Airports across the E.U. are also experiencing labor shortages, affecting warehouse activities and leading to delays in operations that will further affect transit times.
This month, and next, will see some more positive signs. Australia and New Zealand are opening up international borders and allowing domestic travel for those who are vaccinated from 21 February 2022.
A number of carriers, including Emirates, British Airways, Etihad and Auckland-based Go Air Land Sea Logistics, are restarting flights, which will add to overall freight capacity. Air New Zealand also plans to relaunch 24 international routes in March 2022.
“With these positive market signals, we are hoping to see further improvements in the second half of 2022,” said Leung.
Ongoing challenges beyond border restrictions
In the face of this, businesses should be cautiously optimistic, and should always bear in mind that the situation is always evolving as the ongoing labor shortage in major airports is still being resolved.
“It is imperative that businesses match their inventory, and demand, as far ahead as possible with the available capacity, even as we are seeing some signs of recovery,” said Mack.
)
エミレーツ、ブリティッシュ航空、エティハド航空、そしてオークランドを拠点とするGo Air Land Sea Logisticsを含む多くの航空キャリアがフライトを再開しており、これにより、全体的な貨物キャパシティが増加します。 エアーニュージーランドは2022年3月に24の国際路線を再開する予定です。
Flight cancellations due to Covid-19 outbreaks across various Chinese airports will further impact operations in 2022.
China’s strict Covid-19 quarantine and lockdown policies are casting a cloud of uncertainty over global air freight markets in early 2022.
Ports, airports and trucking operations across the country were subject to drastic local shutdowns throughout January as Beijing, which has one eye on the smooth running of the Winter Olympic Games in early February, took stringent steps to prevent the spread of the Omicron Covid-19 variant.
Last minute flight cancellations by Chinese authorities added to supply chain uncertainty, hitting intercontinental bellyhold capacity and prompting the U.S. to take retaliatory action.
With many airports struggling to keep cargo flowing due to personnel travel and quarantine rules, pilot quarantine rules have further limited freighter operations.
As the January DHL Air Freight Market Update notes, outbreaks had a huge impact on Cathay’s freighter operations out of Hong Kong. From the start of January, Chengdu, Chongqing, Guangzhou and Shanghai airports saw passenger and freighter capacity cuts of 50 percent, 50 percent, 25 percent and 48 percent, respectively.
Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific, said DHL was monitoring the situation and working closely with customers to determine the best course of action for any air freight shipments affected.
“We are seeing intermittent, regional disruptions in China due to Covid-19 and when that happens, we are sourcing alternative capacity from across our broad range of partner carriers,” he said. “We are also running additional charter flights on the transpacific route. And we are trucking some Hong Kong cargo to alternative airports due to pilot quarantines at Hong Kong International Airport.”
The timing of the outbreak has been particularly poor for exporters. Workers in China traditionally take far longer breaks than the Chinese New Year holiday, which this year falls on the first week of February.
To compensate for the prolonged slowdown in OEM output, shippers usually have a bumper month, with a sharp spike in air cargo demand as goods are shipped out of China in the weeks leading up to the holiday.
This year, however, there was no spike, and average prices to Europe and North America actually softened in mid-January, albeit from bullishly high levels, according to TAC Index.
Analysts suggested the dip was an anomaly and rates would recover at the end of January once more cargo reached hubs and more personnel and services came back online. This proved the case later in January, at least on services from Asia to Europe, when rates rallied.
However, the blip was reflected to some extent in the latest findings of the DHL Hong Kong Air Trade Leading Index (DTI), which softened in Q1 2022 to 45.5 points from 49.0 in Q4 2021, even though local air traders reported a much better outlook on Chinese New Year-related orders.
Edmond Lai, Chief Digital Officer of the Hong Kong Productivity Council (HKPC) which conducted the research, said the resurgence of Covid-19 globally, allied with high fuel costs and continued supply chain disruption to transportation networks, had resulted in all indices falling slightly in Q1 2022, “indicating that air traders have become more cautious towards the business environment this year”.
With the Beijing Olympics taking place in early February, it is unlikely China will abandon its Covid-19 strategy any time soon. Indeed, short-term lockdowns with little notice in China could threaten the efficiency of “already stressed” global supply chains throughout the year, according to John Ferguson, practice lead for globalization, trade and finance for think tank Economist Impact.
“China’s zero-Covid-19 strategy is key as further outbreaks will result in more closures or lockdowns in key areas,” he told CNBC.
“Given that China has the Winter Olympics coming up, as well as important political events later in the year, it is unlikely that China will abandon its Covid-19 strategy in 2022.”
As the January DHL Air Freight Market Update has noted, the disruption and loss of bellyhold and freighter capacity in China comes at a critical period for global trade, when the “lack of cargo capacity still remains a key obstacle” in the face of rising demand.
Overall schedule capacity was 17 percent lower in December 2021 compared to December 2019, the only meaningful comparison. “Any improvement seen versus 2020 is due to that year’s very low base,” added the Update.
The message for the months ahead: anticipate demand as far ahead as possible, and laser-focus on inventory. “With more flight cancellations and regulation changes due to the surge in Omicron cases, it is essential for businesses to act fast and in advance to meet the demand, while ensuring that inventory and supply are managed well,” said Thomas Mack, Global Head of Air Freight, DHL Global Forwarding.
“While freighter capacity is expected to grow, it will remain restricted amidst strong demand, thus rates will most likely remain high in 2022.”
Ongoing container fleet growth is slow and will require more time to balance out capacity versus demand.
The pandemic-driven shift of U.S. consumption from services to products, and the resulting surges in trans-Pacific ocean container demand and freight rates, are sucking ships out of Asia and driving up the region’s manufacturing and supply chain costs, according to DHL’s February Ocean Freight Market Update and the latest insight from leading analysts.
This increase in capacity has left holes both outside and within the region. At the start of 2022, 43.7 percent of the global fleet was operating on the Asia-Europe and trans-Pacific lanes, up from 38.1 percent a year earlier.
But the hardest hit has been trade within Asia itself. Some 331,200 Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit (TEU) slots have been removed from intra-Asian services last year, representing a capacity reduction of 10.8 percent, according to online shipping database Alphaliner. That has caused spot rates in some parts of Asia to more than double year-on-year, with no sign of them abating.
Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific, said: “After two years of logistics shocks, these increases in intra-Asia rates are not the biggest hurdle supply chain managers have had to cope with. But they are adding to overall supply chain and production costs. We are hoping for some easing of the situation in the second half of this year.”
The shift in capacity to trans-Pacific routes was evident early in the pandemic. As U.S. consumers splurged on lifestyle products during Covid-19 lockdowns, freight rates on the trans-Pacific rose sharply from Q2 2020. Drawn by the demand and profits to be made, carriers began to divert large numbers of ships to the region.
This has left some regions severely short as most additional capacity was sucked into East-West shipping lanes at the expense of regional and Africa trades.
The effect of intra-Asia capacity withdrawals has been an increase in freight rates and manufacturing costs in Asia. According to ocean and air freight rate benchmarking platform Xeneta, spot rates from the main Chinese ports to the main Japanese and South Korean ports in 2021 averaged USD 1,400 (€1,222) per Forty Equipment Unit (FEU), up from USD 640 (€560) in 2020. In the first half of January they rose above USD 1,800 (€1,571) per FEU.
“Though the increases are smaller than on some other major head haul trades, the higher spot prices can still have a considerable impact,” said Peter Sand, Chief Analyst , Xeneta. “Considering that many of the goods on these intra-Asian trades are intermediate goods moving between factories in the region, doubling spot freight rates can often add considerable costs to the manufacturing process, forcing manufacturers to reconsider their manufacturing and supply chains across the region.”
Leung said that while the company was hoping for some easing of the situation in the second half of this year, “DHL continues to secure capacity in sufficient scale to meet customer needs on all trades but booking early is paramount.”
The East-West capacity upgrades also came at the expense of liner offerings to and from Africa, where the combined capacity of ships trading between Asia, Europe, America and Africa fell by 6.4 percent to 1.68m TEU at the start of 2022.
Capacity deployed on the trans-Atlantic, and to and from the Middle East/Indian subcontinent, was relatively stable over the period while Latin America-related services saw an increase in capacity.
However, the intra-European trade proved to be another victim of the capacity shifts. “Some 48,200 TEU slots disappeared from intra-European services (- 4.5 percent),” noted Alphaliner. That capacity appeared to be heading to the Pacific.
“The ongoing capacity reduction was illustrated last month as the 974 TEU SPICA J left Europe for China. The SPICA J previously operated for many years as a typical feeder vessel in North Europe but left Rotterdam without any cargo mid-December for a voyage to Asia. The ship is currently loading Chinese export cargo in Taicang.”
Ongoing shifts from East to West
Although Asia-Europe trade saw a capacity increase of 10.2 percent last year, this was largely due to the delivery of 16,000-24,000 TEU, which replaced the smaller 13,000 TEU units, according to Alphaliner.
The loss of capacity on regional trades such as intra-Asia was primarily a result of vessels being transferred to the trans-Pacific lane, which remains the most profitable for carriers even though port congestion on both sides of the Pacific is at record highs.
Alphaliner estimates that January spot freight rates including premiums on the Shanghai-California lane corresponded to revenue for vessel operators of USD 1.29 (€1.13) per nautical mile. On Asia-Europe trade, the figure was just USD 0.73 (€0.64) , up from USD 0.42 (€0.37) at the start of 2021.
“At the start of this year, 22 percent of the total container fleet was deployed between Asia and North America, up from 17.5 percent on 1 January 2021,” notes the Update. “Carriers added 1.30m TEU of capacity to this major East-West route over the course of last year.”
Unlike in 2020, extra tonnage in 2021 was drawn into the trans-Pacific. The capacity increase, however, was needed to compensate for the huge efficiency loss as many ships faced long waiting times at anchorages, rather than to cope with a corresponding surge in cargo demand.
Dominique von Orelli, Global Head, Ocean Freight, DHL Global Forwarding, said: “Carriers are making logical decisions based on the charter costs they must pay, and the likely returns they can make when deploying those vessels. That equation points to the highly lucrative trans-Pacific trade, despite the port congestion many encounter there.”
This is highlighted by the container traffic situation at Los Angeles (10.70m TEU) and Long Beach (9.38m TEU), which increased by a more modest 13 percent and 15.7 percent, respectively, last year.
“It is important to note that this is not just about big container lines moving capacity, this is also much smaller operators and feeder companies that are re-diverting ships, and also big shippers which have been chartering their own vessels,” added von Orelli.
While port congestions will continue well into 2022, container production is on track to overtake demand growth. Equipment availability, however, will only see more apparent improvements from 2023.
エミレーツ、ブリティッシュ航空、エティハド航空、そしてオークランドを拠点とするGo Air Land Sea Logisticsを含む多くの航空キャリアがフライトを再開しており、これにより、全体的な貨物キャパシティが増加します。 エアーニュージーランドは2022年3月に24の国際路線を再開する予定です。
Array
(
[Positive signals for air freight capacity] => Positive signals for air freight capacity
[A relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions leads to more air travel, but China remains a concern.] => 新型コロナ関連の規制が緩和され、航空旅客が徐々に増えてきているが、中国はまだ懸念を残しています。
[Capacity for recovery
Elsewhere, the signs are largely positive. Across the world, IATA recorded an 11-percentage point increase in international tickets sold between late January 2022 and early February 2022, as more passenger services returned to the skies.
Tracking seven day moving averages, IATA reported on 25 January that the number of air tickets sold was 38 percent of those during the same period in 2019. However, around 8 February 2022, the number of tickets sold was 49 percent of the amount sold during the same period in 2019.
IATA notes that the 11-percentage point improvement between the January and February periods is the fastest such increase for any two-week period since the crisis began. This is due in part to a spate of border restrictions being relaxed around the world.
“With these factors in play, and a general relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions around the world, we are expecting a recovery in bellyhold capacity in the near future," said Thomas Mack, Global Head of Air Freight, DHL Global Forwarding.
Cancellations and a slow return to work
Obstacles, however, remain. In China, authorities continue to execute strict anti-pandemic measures, resulting in lower productivity in cargo handling and processing at key airport hubs.
China Cargo and China Southern airlines cancelled 31 flights into the U.S. until mid-February, which were mostly scheduled to carry Covid-19 test kits on charter flights. In Hong Kong, Cathay Pacific cancelled 80 percent of its freighter capacity into the U.S. and the South West Pacific until end of March 2022 due to new quarantine requirements.
Covid-19 outbreaks and lockdowns also continue to blight China’s internal logistics and manufacturing output. On 17 February 2022, analyst firm Nomura noted there were five major Covid-19 clusters. This includes manufacturing centers such as Shenzhen and Suzhou, where tech companies were reported to have shut down factories as part of the containment process.
Nomura also found that for this year, only 58 percent of workers had returned to work by 17 February after the Lunar New Year holidays. This is 4.4 percentage points lower than in 2019.
More broadly, while the momentum towards normalizing traffic is growing, IATA said 13 of the top 50 travel markets still did not provide easy access to all vaccinated travelers, including major economies such as China, Japan, Russia, Indonesia, and Italy.
Breathing space
On the other hand, the brief slowdown in cargo demand after the Lunar New Year has allowed businesses to catch up and be more prepared to balance their inventory to sales ratio.
This has helped to reduce some of the load, but with cargo continuing to convert from ocean to air freight, and e-commerce demand continuing to grow, capacity will remain tight for a while.] =>
一方で、旧正月後の貨物需要の一時的な減速により、企業は在庫と売上のバランスに追いつき、より準備できる体制になっています。
これは負担の一部を減らすことに役立ちましたが、貨物が海上貨物から航空貨物に転換し続け、Eコマースの需要が増え続けているため、キャパシティは引き続きしばらくはタイトなままとなります。
[The nascent recovery in capacity still lags behind ongoing strong demand. Airports across the E.U. are also experiencing labor shortages, affecting warehouse activities and leading to delays in operations that will further affect transit times.
This month, and next, will see some more positive signs. Australia and New Zealand are opening up international borders and allowing domestic travel for those who are vaccinated from 21 February 2022.
A number of carriers, including Emirates, British Airways, Etihad and Auckland-based Go Air Land Sea Logistics, are restarting flights, which will add to overall freight capacity. Air New Zealand also plans to relaunch 24 international routes in March 2022.
“With these positive market signals, we are hoping to see further improvements in the second half of 2022,” said Leung.
Ongoing challenges beyond border restrictions
In the face of this, businesses should be cautiously optimistic, and should always bear in mind that the situation is always evolving as the ongoing labor shortage in major airports is still being resolved.
“It is imperative that businesses match their inventory, and demand, as far ahead as possible with the available capacity, even as we are seeing some signs of recovery,” said Mack.] => キャパシティの初期の回復は、継続的な強い需要にまだ遅れをとっています。EU全域の空港でも、労働力不足が発生しており、倉庫運営に影響を及ぼし、オペレーションの遅延となり、トランジットタイムに更に影響を及ぼしています。
今月と来月には、さらにポジティブな兆候が見られるでしょう。オーストラリアとニュージーランドは国境を再開し、2022年2月21日から、ワクチン接種を受けた人々の国内旅行を許可しています。
エミレーツ、ブリティッシュ航空、エティハド航空、そしてオークランドを拠点とするGo Air Land Sea Logisticsを含む多くの航空キャリアがフライトを再開しており、これにより、全体的な貨物キャパシティが増加します。 エアーニュージーランドは2022年3月に24の国際路線を再開する予定です。
「これらポジティブなマーケットのサインで、2022年下半期の更なる改善がみられることを期待しています」と、レウン氏は述べています。
国境の規制を超えた継続的なチャレンジ
これに直面して、企業は慎重かつ楽観的である必要があり、主要空港で進行中の労働力不足がまだ解決されていないため、状況は常に変化していることを常に念頭に置く必要があります。
「回復の兆しがみられるものの、企業は在庫と需要を、可能な限り先に利用可能なキャパシティと一致させることが不可欠です」と、マック氏は述べています。
[Bellyhold capacity is finally beginning to show potential signs of improvement as more countries relax travel restrictions amid the weaker Covid-19 Omicron variant.
And while China’s strict lockdowns remain an obstacle to any broader recovery, there are hopes that restrictions may ease now in the coming months.
High vaccination rates, the end of winter and the less severe nature of the Omicron variant have seen the E.U. and U.K. relax rules, according to DHL’s Air Freight State of the Industry. The UAE has also lifted a ban on passenger travel and is likely to restore flights.
But China’s severe zero-Covid policy – forcing local lockdowns that dislocate transport and airport networks – is continuing to disrupt air cargo markets and global manufacturing.
“China’s Covid-19 policies do add to the risk in terms of manufacturing output and overall capacity of the air cargo logistics pipeline,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.
“We are constantly monitoring outbreaks and their impact on production and logistics. And we are hopeful we’ll see some relaxation of those policies in the coming months,” adds Leung.] => 新型コロナウイルスのオミクロン株が弱まっている中で、より多くの国が渡航禁止を緩和するにつれ、航空貨物のベリー容量はようやく改善の潜在的な兆候を示し始めました。
中国の厳格な封鎖策は、より広範な回復の障害となっていますが、今後数か月のうちに緩和される可能性があります。
DHLの航空貨物概況によると、高いワクチン接種率、冬の終わり、そしてオミクロン株のそれほど深刻ではない性質により、EUや英国では規制を緩和しています。アラブ首長国連邦も旅行の禁止を解除し、フライトを回復する可能性があります。
しかしながら中国での、輸送と航空ネットワークを混乱させる地域封鎖を強制する厳格なゼロコロナ政策は、引き続き航空貨物市場と世界的な製造業を混乱させ続けています。
「中国のコロナ対策は、製造業の生産量と航空貨物輸送のパイプライン全体のキャパシティという点で、リスクを高めています」と、DHLグローバルフォワーディング、アジアパシフィックCEOのケルビン レウンは述べています。「私たちは、そのロジスティクスへの影響を常にモニターしています。そして今後数か月のうちに、これらの政策がある程度緩和されることを期待しています。」
[wysiwyg] => wysiwyg
[outbound_box] => outbound_box
[A relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions leads to more air travel, but China remains a concern. Bellyhold capacity is finally beginning to show potential signs of improvement as more countries relax travel restrictions amid the weaker Covid-19 Omicron variant.
And while China’s strict lockdowns remain an obstacle to any broader recovery, there are hopes that restrictions may ease now in the coming months.
High vaccination rates, the end of winter and the less severe nature of the Omicron variant have seen the E.U. and U.K. relax rules, according to DHL’s Air Freight State of the Industry. The UAE has also lifted a ban on passenger travel and is likely to restore flights.
But China’s severe zero-Covid policy – forcing local lockdowns that dislocate transport and airport networks – is continuing to disrupt air cargo markets and global manufacturing.
“China’s Covid-19 policies do add to the risk in terms of manufacturing output and overall capacity of the air cargo logistics pipeline,” said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.
“We are constantly monitoring outbreaks and their impact on production and logistics. And we are hopeful we’ll see some relaxation of those policies in the coming months,” adds Leung.
RELATED ARTICLESChina casts a pall over air cargo capacityFlight cancellations due to Covid-19 outbreaks across various Chinese airports will further impact operations in 2022.Capacity for recovery
Elsewhere, the signs are largely positive. Across the world, IATA recorded an 11-percentage point increase in international tickets sold between late January 2022 and early February 2022, as more passenger services returned to the skies.
Tracking seven day moving averages, IATA reported on 25 January that the number of air tickets sold was 38 percent of those during the same period in 2019. However, around 8 February 2022, the number of tickets sold was 49 percent of the amount sold during the same period in 2019.
IATA notes that the 11-percentage point improvement between the January and February periods is the fastest such increase for any two-week period since the crisis began. This is due in part to a spate of border restrictions being relaxed around the world.
“With these factors in play, and a general relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions around the world, we are expecting a recovery in bellyhold capacity in the near future,” said Thomas Mack, Global Head of Air Freight, DHL Global Forwarding.
Cancellations and a slow return to work
Obstacles, however, remain. In China, authorities continue to execute strict anti-pandemic measures, resulting in lower productivity in cargo handling and processing at key airport hubs.
China Cargo and China Southern airlines cancelled 31 flights into the U.S. until mid-February, which were mostly scheduled to carry Covid-19 test kits on charter flights. In Hong Kong, Cathay Pacific cancelled 80 percent of its freighter capacity into the U.S. and the South West Pacific until end of March 2022 due to new quarantine requirements.
Covid-19 outbreaks and lockdowns also continue to blight China’s internal logistics and manufacturing output. On 17 February 2022, analyst firm Nomura noted there were five major Covid-19 clusters. This includes manufacturing centers such as Shenzhen and Suzhou, where tech companies were reported to have shut down factories as part of the containment process.
Nomura also found that for this year, only 58 percent of workers had returned to work by 17 February after the Lunar New Year holidays. This is 4.4 percentage points lower than in 2019.
More broadly, while the momentum towards normalizing traffic is growing, IATA said 13 of the top 50 travel markets still did not provide easy access to all vaccinated travelers, including major economies such as China, Japan, Russia, Indonesia, and Italy.
Breathing space
On the other hand, the brief slowdown in cargo demand after the Lunar New Year has allowed businesses to catch up and be more prepared to balance their inventory to sales ratio.
This has helped to reduce some of the load, but with cargo continuing to convert from ocean to air freight, and e-commerce demand continuing to grow, capacity will remain tight for a while.
RELATED ARTICLESIntra-Asian lanes affected by ongoing capacity shift from Asia to U.S.Ongoing container fleet growth is slow and will require more time to balance out capacity versus demand.The nascent recovery in capacity still lags behind ongoing strong demand. Airports across the E.U. are also experiencing labor shortages, affecting warehouse activities and leading to delays in operations that will further affect transit times.
This month, and next, will see some more positive signs. Australia and New Zealand are opening up international borders and allowing domestic travel for those who are vaccinated from 21 February 2022.
A number of carriers, including Emirates, British Airways, Etihad and Auckland-based Go Air Land Sea Logistics, are restarting flights, which will add to overall freight capacity. Air New Zealand also plans to relaunch 24 international routes in March 2022.
“With these positive market signals, we are hoping to see further improvements in the second half of 2022,” said Leung.
Ongoing challenges beyond border restrictions
In the face of this, businesses should be cautiously optimistic, and should always bear in mind that the situation is always evolving as the ongoing labor shortage in major airports is still being resolved.
“It is imperative that businesses match their inventory, and demand, as far ahead as possible with the available capacity, even as we are seeing some signs of recovery,” said Mack.] =>
エミレーツ、ブリティッシュ航空、エティハド航空、そしてオークランドを拠点とするGo Air Land Sea Logisticsを含む多くの航空キャリアがフライトを再開しており、これにより、全体的な貨物キャパシティが増加します。 エアーニュージーランドは2022年3月に24の国際路線を再開する予定です。
[] =>
[positive-signals-air-freight-capacity] => positive-signals-air-freight-capacity
[Monthly air freight update] =>
[AFR-Jan-2022-key-image] => AFR-Jan-2022-key-image
[China casts a pall over air cargo capacity] => China casts a pall over freight
[intra-asian-lanes-affected-key-image] => intra-asian-lanes-affected-key-image
[Intra-Asian lanes affected by ongoing capacity shift from Asia to U.S.] => Intra-Asian lanes affected by ongoing capacity shift from Asia to U.S.
[positive-signals-air-freight-capacity-single-column] => positive-signals-air-freight-capacity-single-column
[positive-signals-air-freight-capacity-key-image] => positive-signals-air-freight-capacity-key-image
)
日本語