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\u9ad8\u6602\u7684\u4e2d\u65ad\u6210\u672c<\/b><\/strong><\/p>\n

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\u5c31\u8fd1\u7684\u597d\u5904<\/b><\/strong><\/p>\n

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\u8fd1\u5cb8\u5916\u5305\u8fd8\u80fd\u8ba9\u5404\u4f01\u4e1a\u66f4\u5feb\u5730\u5e94\u5bf9\u7a81\u53d1\u4e8b\u4ef6\u6216\u4e1a\u52a1\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4ed6\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u66f4\u9891\u7e41\u7684\u5b9e\u5730\u8003\u5bdf\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u63a7\u5236\u751f\u4ea7\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002\u4e0e\u76f8\u9694\u534a\u4e2a\u5730\u7403\u7684\u6d77\u5916\u5730\u70b9\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u9009\u62e9\u5728\u672c\u571f\u6216\u90bb\u8fd1\u672c\u571f\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u8fd0\u8425\uff0c\u9047\u5230\u7684\u6587\u5316\u969c\u788d\u4e5f\u5f80\u5f80\u8f83\u5c11\u3002<\/p>\n

RELATED ARTICLES<\/strong><\/p>

<\/figure><\/a>\u4e0b\u8f7d\u300a2022\u5e74DHL\u5168\u7403\u8fde\u901a\u6027\u6307\u6570\u62a5\u544a\u300b<\/strong><\/a>\u6700\u65b0\u7684\u300aDHL\u5168\u7403\u8fde\u901a\u6027\u6307\u6570\u62a5\u544a\u300b\uff08GCI\uff09\u91cd\u70b9\u9610\u8ff0\u4e86\u4e16\u754c\u8fde\u901a\u6027\u63d0\u5347\u7684\u6f5c\u529b\u3002<\/p>

\u5168\u7403\u672c\u571f\u5316\u8d8b\u52bf<\/b><\/strong><\/h2>\n

\u6839\u636e\u79d1\u5c14\u5c3c\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u7814\u7a76<\/a>\uff0c\u6b63\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u8fd1\u5cb8\u5916\u5305\u5177\u6709\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4f18\u52bf\uff0c70\uff05\u5728\u4e9a\u6d32\u8bbe\u6709\u5236\u9020\u5382\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u4f01\u4e1a\u6b63\u5728\u8bc4\u4f30\u642c\u8fc1\u65b9\u6848\u3001\u5df2\u7ecf\u642c\u8fc1\u6216\u8ba1\u5212\u57282021\u5e74\u642c\u8fc1\u5230\u58a8\u897f\u54e5\u3001\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u6216\u4e2d\u7f8e\u6d32\u3002<\/p>\n

\u58a8\u897f\u54e5\u7b49\u5e02\u573a\u5177\u6709\u7a0e\u6536\u6fc0\u52b1\u653f\u7b56\u3001\u76f8\u5bf9\u5ec9\u4ef7\u7684\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u548c\u826f\u597d\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5404\u4f01\u4e1a\u5728\u8fd9\u91cc\u5f00\u5c55\u8fd1\u5cb8\u5916\u5305\u6210\u672c\u6548\u76ca\u66f4\u9ad8\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b9\u6848\u5df2\u7ecf\u5f15\u8d77\u4e86\u7279\u65af\u62c9\u7b49\u7f8e\u56fd\u5927\u4f01\u4e1a<\/a>\u7684\u5173\u6ce8\u2015\u2015\u7279\u65af\u62c9\u5728\u4e0a\u6d77\u4e5f\u8bbe\u6709\u5de5\u5382\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c2023\u5e74\u81f3\u4eca\uff0c\u58a8\u897f\u54e5\u5df2\u5438\u5f15\u4e86130\u591a\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u8fd1\u5cb8\u5916\u5305\u6295\u8d44<\/a>\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5bf9\u4e8e\u70ed\u8877\u4e8e\u901a\u8fc7\u7f8e\u56fd-\u58a8\u897f\u54e5-\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u534f\u5b9a\u964d\u4f4e\u5173\u7a0e\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e2d\u5c0f\u4f01\u4e1a<\/a>\u800c\u8a00<\/a>\uff0c\u8fd1\u5cb8\u5916\u5305\u4e5f\u66f4\u6709\u5438\u5f15\u529b\uff1b88\uff05\u7684\u4e2d\u5c0f\u4f01\u4e1a\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u660e\u5e74\u5c06\u9009\u62e9\u79bb\u672c\u571f\u66f4\u8fd1\u7684\u4f9b\u5e94\u5546<\/a>\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u6839\u636eCushman & Wakefield\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u54a8\u8be2\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u5236\u9020\u5546\u8bd5\u56fe\u964d\u4f4e\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u4f9d\u8d56\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff0c2022\u5e74\u6b27\u6d32\u7684\u5de5\u4e1a\u5382\u623f\u9700\u6c42\u91cf\u6bd4\u4e0a\u4e00\u5e74\u589e\u957f\u4e8629\uff05<\/a>\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8fd1\u5cb8\u5916\u5305\u7684\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u524d\u666f<\/b><\/strong><\/h2>\n

\u9274\u4e8e\u6240\u6709\u8fd9\u4e9b\u52a8\u5411\uff0cCapterra\u7814\u7a76\u516c\u53f8\u5ba3\u5e03\uff0c\u8fd1\u5cb8\u5916\u5305\u8d8b\u52bf\u7684\u53d1\u751f\u901f\u5ea6\u5feb\u4e8e\u9884\u671f\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u5c55\u671b\u672a\u6765\uff0c\u6c47\u4e30\u94f6\u884c\u9996\u5e2d\u4e9a\u6d32\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6Frederic Neumann<\/a>\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u5411\u8fd1\u5cb8\u5916\u5305\u8f6c\u53d8\uff0c\u4e9a\u6d32\u53d1\u5f80\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u8d27\u7269\u4efd\u989d\u53ef\u80fd\u52302025\u5e74\u51cf\u5c11<\/a>20\uff05\uff0c\u52302030\u5e74\u51cf\u5c1140\uff05\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u590d\u82cf\u653e\u7f13<\/b><\/strong><\/h2>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

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DHL\u6700\u65b0\u7684\u5341\u6708\u6d77\u8fd0\u5e02\u573a\u62a5\u544a\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5728\u6709\u9650\u7684\u9ec4\u91d1\u5468\u9ad8\u5cf0\u4e4b\u524d\u4ee5\u53ca\u6574\u4e2a\u5047\u671f\u671f\u95f4\u7684\u4f4e\u9700\u6c42\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u8fd0\u8f93\u516c\u53f8\u6b63\u5728\u4e3a\u4e2d\u56fd\u9ec4\u91d1\u5468\u5047\u671f\u91c7\u53d6\u591a\u9879\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u589e\u52a0\u7a7a\u767d\u822a\u73ed\u548c\u5efa\u7acb\u6eda\u52a8\u6c60\uff0c\u4ee5\u5907\u4e24\u5468\u7684\u9ec4\u91d1\u5468\u5047\u671f\u540e\u5e02\u573a\u9700\u6c42\u51cf\u5c11\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u3002<\/p>\n

\u867d\u7136\u4e9a\u6d32\u5185\u90e8\u00a0(IA) \u548c\u5370\u5ea6-\u5df4\u57fa\u65af\u5766-\u5b5f\u52a0\u62c9\u56fd-\u9521\u5170\u00a0(IPBC) \u7684\u9700\u6c42\u4ecd\u7136\u505c\u6ede\u4e0d\u524d\uff0c\u4f46\u636e\u62a5\u9053\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u5e02\u573a\u5bb9\u91cf\u51cf\u5c11\uff0c\u8f6c\u8fd0\u6e2f\u53e3\u79ef\u7d2f\u4e86\u6eda\u52a8\u6c60\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u8fd0\u8f93\u7d27\u5f20\u3002<\/p>\n"},{"acf_fc_layout":"outbound_box","cards":[{"type":"linked","linked_post":{"ID":46264,"post_author":"1403","post_date":"2023-10-17 09:55:18","post_date_gmt":"2023-10-17 01:55:18","post_content":"","post_title":"DHL Ocean Freight Market Update - October 2023","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"dhl-ocean-freight-market-update-october-2023","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-04-07 16:35:27","post_modified_gmt":"2025-04-07 08:35:27","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/lot.dhl.com\/?p=46264","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},"custom":{"thumbnail":false,"title":"","excerpt":"","cta":"Read more","linkmail":false,"cta_url":"","email_address":"","outbound_email_subject":""},"select_existing_outbound_links":false}]},{"acf_fc_layout":"wysiwyg","wysiwyg":"

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\u00a0<\/p>\n

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\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u6839\u636e\u7f8e\u56fd\u666e\u67e5\u5c40\u7684<\/u>\u6700\u65b0\u62a5\u544a<\/u><\/a>\uff0c\u5728\u622a\u81f37\u6708\u4efd\u768412\u4e2a\u6708\u5185\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5360\u7f8e\u56fd\u5546\u54c1\u8fdb\u53e3\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u964d\u81f3\u81ea2006\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u7684\u6700\u4f4e\u6c34\u5e73\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u5404\u56fd\u7ade\u76f8\u53d6\u4ee3\u4e2d\u56fd<\/b><\/strong><\/h2>\n

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\u58a8\u897f\u54e5<\/u><\/a>\u548c\u4e1c\u6b27<\/u><\/a>\u4e5f\u5438\u5f15\u4e86\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u539f\u59cb\u8bbe\u5907\u5236\u9020\u5546\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e00\u4e9b\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u4e8e\u8fd0\u8f7d2\u4e07\u591a\u4e2a\u6807\u51c6\u96c6\u88c5\u7bb1\u7684\u5927\u578b\u8239\u8236\u7684\u96c6\u88c5\u7bb1\u822a\u8fd0\u516c\u53f8\u53ef\u80fd\u5bf9\u5e02\u573a\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u8bef\u5224\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u66f4\u52a0\u5206\u88c2\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u9700\u8981\u7684\u662f\u66f4\u52a0\u7075\u6d3b\u7684\u8239\u961f\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u4ec5\u9650\u4e8e\u8fde\u63a5\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e0e\u6b27\u6d32\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5728\u8f83\u5c0f\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u8fde\u63a5\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u6700\u9ad8\u8d27\u7269\u91cf\u7684\u4e1c\u897f\u65b9\u8d38\u6613\u822a\u7ebf\u7684\u8239\u53ea\u3002<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u822a\u8fd0\u5206\u6790\u673a\u6784Vespucci Maritime\u9996\u5e2d\u6267\u884c\u5b98Lars Jensen\u5728\u6700\u65b0\u4e00\u671f\u7684Loadstar\u64ad\u5ba2\u4e2d\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5728\u672a\u6765\u768410\u523020\u5e74\u5185\uff0c\u4ed6\u9884\u8ba1\u4f1a\u6709\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u51fa\u53e3\u578b\u4f01\u4e1a\u5c06\u76ee\u5149\u6295\u5411\u4e1c\u5357\u4e9a\u6216\u5728\u4e1c\u5357\u4e9a\u6269\u5f20\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u201c\u73af\u5370\u5ea6\u6d0b\u5730\u533a\u201d\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u5730\u533a\u5305\u62ec\u5370\u5ea6\u6d0b\u5468\u8fb9\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u4e5f\u5305\u62ec\u62e5\u6709\u5927\u91cf\u5e74\u8f7b\u4eba\u53e3\u7684\u975e\u6d32\u56fd\u5bb6\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4ed6\u8bf4\u201c\u5982\u679c\u5370\u5ea6\u5728\u5b98\u50da\u4f53\u5236\u4e0a\u6709\u6240\u6539\u8fdb\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u89c6\u5370\u5ea6\u4e3a\u4e3b\u8981\u7684\u589e\u957f\u70b9\u201d\uff0c\u201c\u4e2d\u4e1c\u5df2\u7ecf\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u76f8\u5f53\u5927\u7684\u589e\u957f\u70b9\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6574\u4e2a\u73af\u5370\u5ea6\u6d0b\u5730\u533a\u5c06\u6210\u4e3a\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u589e\u957f\u7684\u7126\u70b9\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

\u5bf9\u4e8e\u96c6\u88c5\u7bb1\u8fd0\u8f93\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c06\u610f\u5473\u7740\u5357\u5317\u8d38\u6613\u548c\u533a\u57df\u8d38\u6613\u7684\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u518d\u662f\u4ece\u4e9a\u6d32\u5230\u6b27\u6d32\u3001\u4e9a\u6d32\u5230\u7f8e\u56fd\u3001\u7f8e\u56fd\u5230\u6b27\u6d32\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u4f20\u7edf\u957f\u9014\u8fd0\u8f93\u3002<\/p>\n

Jensen\u8865\u5145\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u201c\u8fd9\u5c06\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u66f4\u4e3a\u590d\u6742\u7684\u5c40\u9762\uff0c\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u5e72\u7ebf\u822a\u7ebf\u672a\u5fc5\u662f\u589e\u957f\u7684\u9a71\u52a8\u529b\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n"},{"acf_fc_layout":"outbound_box","cards":[{"type":"linked","linked_post":{"ID":46652,"post_author":"1403","post_date":"2023-10-11 08:05:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-10-11 00:05:46","post_content":"

The evidence remains scant, but there are distinct signs that air cargo markets are firming. <\/p>

Whisper it quietly, but could a fourth quarter peak season be brewing for air cargo?<\/p>\n

It seems unlikely given that China\u2019s economy is malfunctioning and demand from Europe and the U.S. is bedevilled by a combination of inflation, economic stagnation, and seemingly endless excess inventory.<\/p>\n

Moreover, all indicators from the container shipping market, which has just experienced a flaccid peak season, suggest that air cargo operators should be pessimistic about a late-year boost.<\/p>\n

And yet, in late September, there were signs of rekindled air freight activity after a low-key summer, albeit from a small dataset. For example, TAC Index, a pricing agency, reported a 4.8 percent rise in the overall Baltic Air Freight Index in the week to 25 September, with rates firmer out of China in the run up to factory closures for Golden Week at the start of October.<\/p>\n

The pricing agency said market signals had taken a \u201cdistinctly firmer tone\u201d and even suggested that e-commerce shippers could be left scrambling for capacity in the weeks to come.<\/p>\n

\u201cWith sources also reporting solid pre-order bookings for some major product launches, including the new iPhone, expectations are growing for a proper peak season bounce this year and stronger market through into Q1,\u201d added TAC Index<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Toward the end of September, World ACD had reported a 4 percent weekly jump<\/a> in cargo demand.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere are no indications of a traditional peak season surge this year,\u201d said Niki Frank, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific. \u201cHowever, e-commerce remains a strong growth driver, and the market is expected to improve in Q4. In fact, we are expecting a conservative increase in demand that will remain steady throughout December.\u201d<\/p>\n

Fundamentals vs optimism<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Before the bunting is hung for peak season, it is worth first considering that the supply-demand balance of air cargo does not favor a major rate bump. The September edition of DHL\u2019s Air Freight State Of The Industry<\/em> report states that global capacity is 10 percent higher than last year. Moreover, belly capacity continues to be added as passenger travel demand remains high. It concludes that there is \u201csufficient capacity for current volume levels\u201d.<\/p>\n

RELATED ARTICLES<\/strong><\/p>

<\/figure><\/a>DHL Air Freight State of the Industry \u2013 September 2023<\/strong><\/a>Find out the latest developments of the global air freight market in this monthly analysis by DHL Global Forwarding.<\/p>

The report also notes that high inventories and inflation impacting consumer and business purchasing power have resulted in lower volumes than the typical peak seasons from previous years.<\/p>\n

For its part, Nomura reports that export growth across Southeast Asia has been sluggish due to weak demand, while Singapore\u2019s exports in 2023 have dropped below 2019 levels. The analyst\u2019s latest reading of its leading index of Asia (ex-Japan) aggregates that exports came in at a \u201chistorically low\u201d 82.1.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhile some tech indicators have shown nascent signs of recovery, most other indicators remain in a slump,\u201d said Nomura<\/a>. \u201cThis suggests a mix of forces impacting Asia\u2019s export cycle: an AI-led cyclical upturn in the global semiconductor cycle is a positive, but weak non-tech import demand (could) keep a lid on the extent of Asia\u2019s export recovery.\u201d<\/p>\n

It further added that mild recessions are forecasted in coming quarters in the U.S., Europe, and Japan, along with weak demand from China, which could limit the extent of Asia\u2019s export recovery.<\/p>\n

Dampening expectations<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Speaking in the first half of September, Xeneta chief air freight officer Nial van de Wouww urged caution<\/a> against undue optimism on the air freight market\u2019s outlook.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe are picking up signals that it could take another few quarters before we see more demand on a global level,\u201d said van de Wouw. \u201cAugust was very quiet, like July, and we see no meaningful signals from a qualitative or quantitative point of view of any peak arising this year.\u201d<\/p>\n

He added that while some early peak season charter requests might float around, they are backed up by very little demand. \u201cThe (low) rates and the limited timeframe that the requestors are looking for a signal that they are not too concerned at the moment about getting the required capacity when they actually need it.\u201d<\/p>\n

Van de Wouw concluded that while upward pressure on airfreight rates in the second half of October is \u201clikely\u201d as capacity is taken out of the market, this would probably be too late in the year to positively impact the industry\u2019s 2023 performance.<\/p>\n

Given that the macroeconomic outlook has not improved, the signals for the rest of the year are not promising. While the market appears to have leveled out, it still holds much uncertainty, not just for air freight. The ocean market also did not experience its usual peak season surge, which typically precedes the airfreight market by a few months. Blank sailings were even scheduled ahead of the Golden Week period.<\/p>\n

RELATED ARTICLES<\/strong><\/p>

<\/figure><\/a>Is the 2023 peak shipping season over already?<\/strong><\/a>Signs suggest that the 2023 \u2018peak\u2019 came early this year. All eyes are now on the build-up to the Golden Week holidays in China.<\/p>

Still, there have been positive signs of recovery toward the end of the year. Carriers are seeing an increase across volumes outbound from the Asia Pacific market due to a consistent increase in e-commerce and capital goods volumes in the last quarter.<\/p>\n

Air cargo news<\/a> reported that demand out of Southeast Asia into Europe and the U.S. was rising, driven by consumer electronics and semiconductor shipments. The Loadstar further confirmed that e-commerce demand was a key market driver<\/a>, with Apple\u2019s launch of the iPhone 15 and geopolitical issues proving to be key drivers of air cargo markets.<\/p>\n

In addition, sectors such as Automobile, Tech and Life Sciences and Healthcare have witnessed rising demand. Global volume growth has also stayed constant, remaining flat month on month, indicating a stabilizing market.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt seems safe to say that freight rates have bottomed out, and it is probable that long-term rates will stay consistent through the remainder of Q4 2023,\u201d said Frank. \u201cIf market stability persists, we anticipate the recovery of major economies in 2024, which, hopefully, will pave the way for improved volume growth next year,\u201d said Frank.<\/p>\n

RELATED ARTICLES<\/strong><\/p>

<\/figure><\/a>Summer sun fails to materialize for air freight<\/strong><\/a>While slow demand is dampening air cargo rates and volumes, there are signs that the bottom of the market has now been reached. <\/p>","post_title":"Could we have an air cargo peak season after all?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"air-cargo-peak-season-after-all","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-04-07 16:21:46","post_modified_gmt":"2025-04-07 08:21:46","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/lot.dhl.com\/?p=46652","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},"custom":{"thumbnail":false,"title":"","excerpt":"","cta":"Read more","linkmail":false,"cta_url":"","email_address":"","outbound_email_subject":""},"select_existing_outbound_links":false}]},{"acf_fc_layout":"wysiwyg","wysiwyg":"

\u4e2d\u56fd\u4ecd\u4fdd\u6301\u4e3b\u5bfc\u5730\u4f4d<\/b><\/strong><\/h2>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u8bd5\u56fe\u593a\u53d6\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u90e8\u5206\u4e1a\u52a1\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u5728\u5168\u7403\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u4e2d\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u4e0d\u592a\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u77ed\u671f\u5185\u88ab\u53d6\u4ee3\u3002\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\uff0c\u6b63\u5982Drewry<\/u><\/a>\u6307\u51fa\u7684\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u591a\u5143\u5316\u6218\u7565\u751a\u81f3\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u4f1a\u663e\u8457\u6539\u53d8\u5168\u7403\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u6d41\u91cf\u3002<\/p>\n

Drewry\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4e2d\u7f8e\u8d38\u6613\u7684\u51cf\u5c11\u5e76\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u610f\u5473\u7740\u8de8\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u4e1c\u5411\u8d27\u7269\u8fd0\u8f93\u91cf\u4f1a\u51cf\u5c11\uff0c\u6216\u96c6\u88c5\u7bb1\u4e0d\u5e73\u8861\u4f1a\u964d\u4f4e\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e9b\u51fa\u53e3\u8d38\u6613\u5c06\u88ab\u4e9a\u6d32\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u6240\u53d6\u4ee3\u3002<\/p>\n

\u53e6\u4e00\u79cd\u9009\u62e9\u662f\uff0c\u8d27\u7269\u4e0d\u76f4\u63a5\u8fd0\u9001\u5230\u7f8e\u56fd\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5148\u53d1\u9001\u5230\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u6216\u58a8\u897f\u54e5\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u518d\u8de8\u8d8a\u56fd\u754c\u8fdb\u5165\u7f8e\u56fd\u5404\u5dde\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u4e2d\u56fd\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u518d\u50cf\u4ee5\u524d\u90a3\u6837\u76f4\u63a5\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u63d0\u4f9b\u670d\u52a1\uff0c\u4f46\u4ecd\u5c06\u4ee5\u95f4\u63a5\u65b9\u5f0f\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u63d0\u4f9b\u670d\u52a1\u3002<\/p>\n

DHL\u5168\u7403\u8d27\u8fd0\u4e9a\u592a\u533a\u9996\u5e2d\u6267\u884c\u5b98Niki Frank\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u4e16\u754c\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u52a0\u5206\u6563\u548c\u591a\u5143\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u5bf9\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u98ce\u9669\u8fdb\u884c\u8be6\u7ec6\u5ba1\u67e5\uff0c\u4f46\u4e2d\u56fd\u4ecd\u662f\u5168\u7403\u8d38\u6613\u4e0d\u53ef\u6216\u7f3a\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4ed6\u8bf4\uff1a\u201c\u5728\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u540e\u75ab\u60c5\u65f6\u4ee3\uff0c\u4f01\u4e1a\u6b63\u5728\u52a0\u5927\u6295\u8d44\uff0c\u4ee5\u5efa\u7acb\u5177\u6709\u5f39\u6027\u7684\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u3002\u201d\u201c\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u63d0\u9ad8\u56de\u6d41\u548c\u8fd1\u5cb8\u5916\u5305\u5728\u91cd\u5851\u5168\u7403\u8d38\u6613\u6d41\u91cf\u4e2d\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u9884\u8ba1\u4e2d\u56fd\u4ecd\u5c06\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u626e\u6f14\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u89d2\u8272\uff0c\u5728\u65b0\u7684\u5730\u533a\u548c\u53cc\u8fb9\u8d38\u6613\u4e2d\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e3b\u8981\u9a71\u52a8\u529b\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n"},{"acf_fc_layout":"outbound_box","cards":[{"type":"linked","linked_post":{"ID":45872,"post_author":"1403","post_date":"2023-09-20 08:30:00","post_date_gmt":"2023-09-20 00:30:00","post_content":"

Signs suggest that the 2023 \u2018peak\u2019 came early this year. All eyes are now on the build-up to the Golden Week holidays in China. <\/p>

The 2023 peak container shipping season has proven something of an enigma. Rate movements have been irregular, demand signals have been unclear and volume levels have been lower than expected. <\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

So, what exactly transpired this summer, and is the peak season over already? The <\/span>Wall St Journal<\/span> noted that the 2023 peak season appears to have arrived early, ending quickly with volumes at lower levels than expected. Moreover, instead of a steady build-up to the Golden Week holidays in China at the start of October which usually boosts freight rates, spot markets on key East-West trades were <\/span>tapering downwards in early September<\/span>.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Although freight rates received a minor boost from the 1 September rate hikes, Linerlytica reported that market sentiment remains poor with the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) giving up all of its gains in August in a repeated pattern of early month rate gains followed by rate cuts as the month progresses.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

While trans-Pacific rate gains were proving more resilient than on the Asia-Europe trade in early September, even there, the momentum was dissipating quickly.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

One positive is that Panama Canal transit limitations due to El Nino-driven drought and low water levels in the region are not proving disruptive, not least because container traffic is being given priority.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The El Nino drought is expected to last into 2024 which could see more vessels transiting the Suez Canal as the year progresses, adding an extra 1,800 nautical miles on the Shanghai-New York tour (<\/span>5 days at 15 knots<\/span><\/a>).<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Routing more vessels to the US East Coast via the Suez Canal could help carriers absorb the large number of delivered ships. DHL\u2019s September Ocean Freight Market Update reported that some 300,000 TEU of fresh capacity was delivered to carriers in June alone, with MSC, the world\u2019s largest container line by capacity, accounting for 38 percent of the new ships.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cShip deliveries will remain high over the next months,\u201d said Niki Frank, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific. \u201cBut while the new CII (Carbon Intensity Indicator) and EEXI (Energy Efficiency eXisting ship Index) environmental regulations have created some tonnage demand through mandated slow steaming, cargo volumes will likely not grow enough to absorb all new deliveries.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

RELATED ARTICLES<\/strong><\/p>

<\/figure><\/a>DHL Ocean Freight Market Update \u2013 September 2023<\/strong><\/a>Find out the latest developments of the global ocean freight market in this monthly analysis by DHL Global Forwarding.<\/p>

Heightened inventory levels<\/span><\/b><\/h2>\n

According to Jason Miller, Professor of Supply Chain Management at Michigan State University\u2019s Eli Broad College of Business supply-chain management department, the sharp decline in US containerized imports from Asia in 2023 compared to H2 2020-H1 2022 resulted from reduced demand and inventory drawdowns.<\/span><\/p>\n

Indeed, on top of logistics companies coping with tepid volume and low freight rates, Miller argues that the US is currently experiencing the largest inventory correction cycle in modern economic history. Import-centric wholesale and retail trade firms are burning off excess inventories built up in response to less demand in 2021, and over-ordering in late 2021 into the first half of 2022\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

In sectors like toy wholesaling, he expects this to continue for \u201canother nine to 12 months\u201d before inventories return to regular levels.<\/span><\/p>\n

With US retail inventory levels still <\/span>elevated<\/span><\/a> and sales slowing, Judah Levine, Head of Research, does not expect significant restocking or a freight market rebound until mid-2024. <\/span>\u201cTaken together, these trends support projections that import volumes likely reached their peak for the year in August,\u201d he noted.<\/span><\/p>\n

The situation in Europe is slightly better with container import levels at key ports <\/span>declining in the first half of the year<\/span><\/a> and rates subsiding in late August.<\/span><\/p>\n

S&P Global reported that eurozone manufacturers remained under severe pressure in August with new orders and new export business both plummeting. At 43.5, the headline index was up from July\u2019s 38-month low of 42.7, but still indicative of another sharp worsening in the health of the euro area manufacturing economy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Manufacturing downturn reversing?<\/span><\/b><\/h2>\n

There are now some positive signs that the global manufacturing downturn might finally have bottomed out. For example, the J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI rose to a three-month high of 49.0 in August, from 48.6 in July.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bennett Parrish, Global Economist at J.P. Morgan, said August PMIs signaled to remain below the 50-mark. However, he added that the improvement in August owed almost entirely to a large 2.4-point jump in the China output index.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cExcluding China, the global output PMI declined nearly one point in August and is stuck at a level that does not point to much, if any momentum lift in the manufacturing sector,\u201d noted Parrish.<\/span><\/p>\n

Interestingly, despite the downturn in rates ahead of Golden Week, there are no signs that carriers will resort to their usual strategy of mass blanked sailings. Looking at the current combined trans-Pacific capacity reductions for the 4-week Golden Week period (counted as Golden Week plus the following three weeks), Sea-Intelligence reported at the end of August that carriers had scheduled capacity reductions of only 3 percent, compared to a 12.4 percent reduction in 2019, and a 2017 to 2019 average of 10 percent.<\/span><\/p>\n

According to Linerlytica, rates will come under increasing pressure through September, as transpacific carriers are already withdrawing peak season surcharges even before the Golden Week holidays in October.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cCarriers are aware that belated attempts to schedule blank sailings from the end of September will do little to address the imbalance in the absence of concrete service withdrawals,\u201d noted Linerlytica.<\/span><\/p>\n

Still, shippers should be prudent in their planning for capacity, in lieu of possible seasonal fluctuations.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cGiven the stabilizing freight rates and demand and capacity conditions, we foresee that utilization will likely remain balanced for the rest of the year. But while we may not be anticipating a peak season surge in the fourth quarter, shippers should still prioritize adaptability and plan ahead in advance to address any possible surge in volumes toward the year-end,\u201d concluded Frank.<\/span><\/p>\n

RELATED ARTICLES<\/strong><\/p>

<\/figure><\/a>Summer sun fails to materialize for air freight<\/strong><\/a>While slow demand is dampening air cargo rates and volumes, there are signs that the bottom of the market has now been reached. <\/p>","post_title":"Is the 2023 peak shipping season over already?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"is-the-2023-peak-shipping-season-over-already","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-04-07 14:11:39","post_modified_gmt":"2025-04-07 06:11:39","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/lot.dhl.com\/?p=45872","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},"custom":{"thumbnail":false,"title":"","excerpt":"","cta":"Read 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