The re-opening of China and lower energy prices are key factors for this economic resilience. But while a recession is no longer imminent, interest rates could continue to rise as bankers try once more to bring down inflation.<\/p>\n
What this means from a trade perspective is uncertain for now. According to financial firm Nomura, exports from most Asian economies remain weak. India, for one, saw its year-on-year export growth in February decrease by 8.8 percent.<\/p>\n
China\u2019s export levels over the January to February period is 6.8 percent lower than a year earlier, which followed a 9.9 percent year-on-year decline<\/a> in December 2022. Nomura also noted that Beijing is predicting a conservative GDP growth target of around five percent due to shrinking export levels and the still-weak property sector.<\/p>\n RELATED ARTICLES<\/strong><\/p> Meanwhile, DHL\u2019s March Airfreight State of the Industry<\/a> reports that global capacity is 14 percent higher than in March 2022. The report also highlighted that as the global travel business recovers, the bellyhold capacity from passenger flights has also seen a 20 percent year-on-year increase.<\/p>\n \u201cThe return of bellyhold capacity is giving customers more freight options,\u201d said Kelvin Leung, Asia Pacific CEO of\u00a0DHL\u00a0Global Forwarding. \u201cWe have also observed a stronger March in terms of demand. It is likely attributed to the continuous opening of the China market as well as the quarter-end.\u201d<\/p>\n Ongoing high inventory level is also a key stumbling block for recovery, amid a sluggish export situation. Market research firm Ti published its recent Air Freight Rate Tracker<\/a>\u00a0report, pointing to an increasing inventory level over the past quarter. U.S. and European factories and retailers are still sitting on too much inventory, thus putting the brakes on new factory orders. Companies remain focused on inventory reduction, causing short-term headwinds for the air freight market.<\/p>\n RELATED ARTICLES<\/strong><\/p> With fewer supply chain disruptions globally and delivery times decreasing, factories and retailers have less need to hold high inventory levels. In addition, the increase in the cost of working capital is also prompting factories and retailers to improve the efficiency of their inventory management. Ti\u2019s report highlighted that inventory levels would probably need restocking at the end of Q2 and Q3, providing a much-needed boost to the air freight market.<\/p>\n However, Niall van de Wouw, head of airfreight at Xeneta, is predicting a \u201clonger, nastier\u201d period for air freight<\/a> than many were currently expecting. \u201cThere are a lot of signals; interest rates hikes and inflation. If there is de-stocking in Q3, plus a slowdown in the economy, that may have a net-zero effect on air freight,\u201d said van de Wouw.<\/p>\n But the positives from an increasing PMI Index and slight increase in export orders<\/a> outbound from Asia Pacific to the U.S. and Europe are putting some confidence in the market. \u201cThere is a sense of hopefulness for the second half of the year, with an expected recovery in volumes while the economy stays resilient against inflation,\u201d noted Leung.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Air freight conditions improving despite inflation concerns","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"air-freight-conditions-improving-despite-inflation-concerns","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-04-03 15:06:46","post_modified_gmt":"2025-04-03 07:06:46","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/lot.dhl.com\/?p=35011","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},"custom":{"thumbnail":false,"title":"","excerpt":"","cta":"Read more","linkmail":false,"cta_url":"","email_address":"","outbound_email_subject":""},"select_existing_outbound_links":false}]},{"acf_fc_layout":"wysiwyg","wysiwyg":" \u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u9700\u6c42\u7aef\u7684\u4e50\u89c2\u60c5\u7eea\u5e76\u672a\u963b\u6b62\u5927\u591a\u6570\u8d38\u6613\u7ebf\u4e0a\u96c6\u88c5\u7bb1\u8fd0\u8f93\u73b0\u8d27\u8fd0\u4ef7\u7684\u4e0b\u6ed1\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u627f\u8fd0\u5546\u4ecd\u5728\u64a4\u56de\u8fd0\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n 3\u6708\uff0c\u95f2\u7f6e\u96c6\u88c5\u7bb1\u8239\u961f\u51fa\u73b0\u4e8636\u4e2a\u6708\u4ee5\u6765\u7684\u6700\u5927\u589e\u5e45\u3002\u6839\u636e\u5fb7\u8def\u91cc\u822a\u8fd0\u54a8\u8be2\u516c\u53f8\uff08Drewry Shipping Consultants\uff09\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c3\u6708\u4e0a\u534a\u6708\u7684\u95f2\u7f6e\u8fd0\u529b\u5df2\u7ecf\u589e\u52a0\u81f330\u4e07\u4e2a\u6807\u51c6\u7bb1\uff0c\u603b\u95f2\u7f6e\u8fd0\u529b\u8fbe\u5230137\u4e07\u4e2a\u6807\u51c6\u7bb1\u300257%\u7684\u95f2\u7f6e\u8239\u53ea\u5f52\u627f\u8fd0\u5546\u6240\u6709\uff0c\u800c\u53e6\u591643%\u7684\u95f2\u7f6e\u8239\u53ea\u5219\u5c5e\u4e8e\u72ec\u7acb\u7684\u975e\u8425\u8fd0\u6240\u6709\u8005\u3002<\/p>\n \u5fb7\u8def\u91cc\u822a\u8fd0\u54a8\u8be2\u516c\u53f8\u6307\u51fa\uff0c3\u6708\u7684\u95f2\u7f6e\u8fd0\u529b\u589e\u5e45\u662f\u8fc7\u53bb10\u5e74\u6765\u7b2c\u516d\u5927\u7684\u6708\u5ea6\u589e\u5e45\uff0c\u4ec5\u6b21\u4e8e2020\u5e742\u6708\uff0c\u5f53\u65f6\u7684\u589e\u5e45\u4e3a80\u4e07\u4e2a\u95f2\u7f6e\u6807\u51c6\u7bb1\u3002\u5f53\u65f6\u4eba\u4eec\u666e\u904d\u9884\u8ba1\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u7528\u96c6\u88c5\u7bb1\u8fd0\u8d27\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u5c06\u5927\u5e45\u4e0b\u964d\u3002\u6839\u636e\u6700\u65b0\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u683c\u6805\u5f0f\u96c6\u88c5\u7bb1\u8d27\u8239\u7684\u95f2\u7f6e\u6570\u91cf\u5360\u6bd4\u8fbe\u52305.3%\uff082580\u4e07\u4e2a\u6807\u51c6\u7bb1\uff09\uff0c\u662f\u81ea2020\u5e748\u6708\u4ee5\u6765\u7684\u6700\u9ad8\u6bd4\u4f8b\u3002<\/p>\n \u9884\u8ba1\u5728\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\u7684\u51e0\u4e2a\u6708\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u6bd4\u4f8b\u5c06\u7ee7\u7eed\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u627f\u8fd0\u5546\u9762\u4e34\u7684\u6311\u6218\u5c24\u4e3a\u4e25\u5cfb\uff0c\u539f\u56e0\u5728\u4e8e\u201c\u8239\u8236\u8ba2\u5355\u6570\u91cf\u5e9e\u5927\u201d\u2014\u2014\u4eca\u5e74\u5c06\u6709\u65b0\u4e00\u6279\u8239\u8236\u9646\u7eed\u6295\u5165\u8fd0\u8425<\/a>\u3002<\/p>\n \u968f\u7740\u6e2f\u53e3\u62e5\u5835\u60c5\u51b5\u6709\u6240\u7f13\u89e3\uff0c\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u7684\u758f\u901a\u4e5f\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u5168\u7403\u8239\u961f\u7684\u6709\u6548\u8fd0\u529b\u3002\u5206\u6790\u516c\u53f8Sea-Intelligence\u5f97\u51fa\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\u662f\uff0c\u4eca\u5e741\u6708\u4efd\u7531\u4e8e\u62e5\u5835\u9020\u6210\u7684\u8fd0\u529b\u635f\u5931\u8fbe\u52306.2%\uff0c\u4e0e2022\u5e741\u6708\u7684\u8239\u8236\u62e5\u5835\u9ad8\u5cf0\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u201c\u5927\u7ea6\u5df2\u7ecf\u6062\u590d\u5230\u6b63\u5e38\u6c34\u5e73\uff082.2%\uff09\u7684\u4e09\u5206\u4e4b\u4e8c\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n"},{"acf_fc_layout":"outbound_box","cards":[{"type":"linked","linked_post":{"ID":34872,"post_author":"1387","post_date":"2023-03-14 10:38:35","post_date_gmt":"2023-03-14 02:38:35","post_content":" With a wave of new vessels coming in March, the balance between capacity and demand is back in the spotlight. <\/p> Where will all the new ships be deployed? That is the question many in the industry are asking as container lines take delivery of an avalanche of new vessels, even as many are sailing at less-than-optimal utilization levels and rates hit new lows.<\/p>\n Alphaliner deems the \u201ccolossal orderbook\u201d hanging over the container market as \u201ca sword of Damocles\u201d. In late February, the analyst detailed how the world\u2019s 11 largest container lines would receive 89 new mainline ships<\/a> of between 13,000 TEU and 24,000 TEU capacity in 2023.<\/p>\n At the start of February, a total orderbook of 7.69m TEU<\/a> represented around 30 percent of the active global box ship fleet.<\/p>\n Of the total orderbook, a huge 32 percent is due for delivery this year and 38 percent in 2024.<\/p>\n \u201cThis year will thus see the arrival of the box ship delivery \u2018wave\u2019 that follows the ordering frenzy of 2020 and 2021,\u201d noted Alphaliner. \u201cAt least for the time being, it looks as if all this extra tonnage will hit the liner trades at a time of faltering demand.\u201d The result would be a \u201ca return of overcapacity\u201d to container shipping.<\/p>\n In February, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) dropped below 1,000 points for the first time since July 2022, and the gap between spot and contract markets is quickly narrowing. These factors fuel concerns that a price war might break out between carriers.<\/p>\n RELATED ARTICLES<\/strong><\/p> Carriers are taking steps to stem rate declines by removing capacity<\/a>, albeit some experts argue they have done too little, too late. The commercially inactive fleet on 13 February totaled 366 vessels. This was equivalent to 6.2 percent of the global cellular fleet, up from 5.7 percent two weeks earlier, noted Alphaliner.<\/p>\n Ship demolitions are also on the rise. MSI consultancy said scrapping would keep net fleet growth at modest levels for the feeder and midsize segments of the fleet. \u201cNevertheless,\u201d MSI added, \u201cit seems that overcapacity cannot be prevented in the large segment, as there are no demolitions anticipated there and an avalanche of new deliveries.\u201d<\/p>\n Meanwhile, Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta predicted that 25 percent of the scheduled orderbook will be postponed<\/a>.<\/p>\n Carriers are also now blanking sailings, putting vessels into \u2018hot\u2019 and \u2018cold\u2019 layups and implementing fleet-wide slow steaming strategies. Reports also suggest that sending ships around the Cape of Good Hope instead of the Suez Canal will also be used to cut capacity on Asia-Europe services. This strategy that saves significant transit fees, but also drives up fuel consumption.<\/p>\n Most major port bottlenecks in Europe and the U.S. have now been cleared, but the March DHL Ocean Freight Market Update notes that the inland transport situation in Europe could be disrupted in various countries by strikes which impact productivity in the coming weeks.<\/p>\n Capacity constraints within the rail yards and chassis shortages still occur throughout the U.S. Also, seasonal weather delays are expected for truck and rail moves in North America and Canada.<\/p>\n RELATED ARTICLES<\/strong><\/p> More positively, there are some signs that the macroeconomic landscape is improving. The March DHL Ocean Freight Market Update<\/a> reports that the eurozone \u201cmay avert a recession\u201d and the U.S. economy is entering 2023 \u201cwith a new burst of energy\u201d.<\/p>\n Dominique von Orelli, Global Head, Ocean Freight, DHL Global Forwarding, said the market is normalizing, despite trade flows on many lanes being weaker than during the pandemic-driven import boom. \u201cWe are still facing macroeconomic headwinds including high inflation, interest rates and inventory levels, but this isn\u2019t a market collapse,\u201d he said. \u201cThis is trending towards stability, and we expect the overall demand situation to improve in the second half of the year.\u201d<\/p>\n The recent DHL Ocean Freight Update also noted that countries including India, Vietnam, and the Philippines will achieve real GDP growth rates above 5 percent in 2023. It also outlines why Asia Pacific will lead all regions in growth as mainland China reopens. \u201cChina\u2019s shift from zero Covid-19 to economic stimulus is a long-awaited move, triggering more consumer spending and thus driving more imports into the China market \u201d said Kelvin Leung, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific. \u201cThe increased consumption will positively affect demand,\u00a0 and return a much-needed balance to the market.\u201d<\/p>\n RELATED ARTICLES<\/strong><\/p> China\u2019s manufacturing activity moved into expansionary territory in February after six months of contraction. The Caixin China General Manufacturing Purchasing Managers\u2019 Index (PMI), which gives an independent snapshot of the country\u2019s manufacturing sector, came in at 51.6 in February, up from 49.2 the previous month<\/a>.<\/p>\n Bennett Parrish, Global Economist at J.P.Morgan, said: \u201cThe February manufacturing PMIs point to a welcome return to growth for global industry, amid supply chains improvements and China’s reopening. A bounce in new orders reinforces the signal from the output PMIs and should help to sustain the recovery in the coming months.”<\/p>\n Meanwhile, the J.P.Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI also improved in February, rising to 50 from 49.1 in January. Economists are now more optimistic than they were at the end of last year, with shipping analyst firm Drewry upgrading its forecast for world port handling in 2023.<\/p>\n \u201cGiven the change of direction in the GDP outlook and general sentiment, we are now anticipating an uplift of 1.2 percent, compared to 0.8 percent previously,\u201d commented Simon Heaney, Senior Manager for Container Research at Drewry. \u201cOur assumptions include a cooling down in inflation, a weaker U.S. dollar and some inventory replenishment.\u201d<\/p>\n","post_title":"The reality of overcapacity is setting in","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"reality-overcapacity-setting-in","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-09-05 14:44:29","post_modified_gmt":"2025-09-05 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\u6216\u8005\uff0c\u8fd0\u529b\u8fc7\u5269\u73b0\u8c61\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u6301\u7eed\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u5404\u4e2a\u8054\u76df\u5185\u7684\u627f\u8fd0\u5546\u65e0\u6cd5\u5c31\u8fd0\u529b\u51cf\u91cf\u8fbe\u6210\u4e00\u81f4\u3002\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5728\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\u7684\u6570\u6708\u5185\u52a0\u5267\u4ef7\u683c\u6218\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u8fd0\u4ef7\u5728\u51e0\u4e2a\u6708\u5185\u90fd\u4e0d\u4f1a\u89e6\u5e95\u53cd\u5f39\u3002\u8fd0\u4ef7\u751a\u81f3\u53ef\u80fd\u8dcc\u81f32016\u5e74\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u6781\u7aef\u6c34\u5e73\u3002<\/p>\n \u5728\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\u7684\u6570\u6708\u91cc\uff0c\u60c5\u51b5\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u4e24\u79cd\u8d70\u5411\u3002\u5ef6\u68ee\u8868\u793a\uff1a\u201c\u4e00\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u662f\u5e93\u5b58\u8c03\u6574\u7ed3\u675f\uff0c\u9700\u6c42\u6025\u5267\u589e\u957f\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u4e5f\u4f1a\u5f15\u53d12023\u5e74\u590f\u5b63\u8fd0\u4ef7\u6c34\u5e73\u5927\u5e45\u4e0a\u6da8\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u662f\u8fd0\u4ef7\u6218\u52a0\u5267\uff0c\u8fd0\u4ef7\u8dcc\u81f3\u66f4\u4f4e\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n![](\"https:\/\/lot.dhl.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/AFR-March-2023-key-image.jpg\"\/)
<\/figure><\/a>The inventory effect<\/h2>\n
![](\"https:\/\/lot.dhl.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/OFR-March-2023-key-image.jpg\"\/)
<\/figure><\/a>Cautious positive outlook for second half of 2023<\/h2>\n
\u95f2\u7f6e\u8239\u961f<\/h2>\n
<\/figure><\/a>Capacity cuts amidst bottlenecks<\/h2>\n
![](\"https:\/\/lot.dhl.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/uptick-schedule-reliability-positives-ocean-freight-key-image.jpg\"\/)
<\/figure><\/a>Demand on track for growth<\/h2>\n
![](\"https:\/\/lot.dhl.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/improvements-air-freight-second-half-2023-key-image.jpg\"\/)
<\/figure><\/a>Positive sentiments for economic outlook<\/h2>\n
\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u523b\u7684\u7a7a\u767d<\/h2>\n
\u8fd0\u4ef7\u6218\u8fd8\u5728\u7ee7\u7eed\u5417\uff1f<\/h2>\n
\u4e8c\u9009\u4e00\u7684\u98ce\u66b4<\/h2>\n